This time, is it next week’s projected warmup that may turn into a bust?
Strong radiational cooling — clear skies, calm winds — has produced a morning with widespread temperatures in the teens this morning across Southwest Virginia and even a few single-digit readings in outlying areas. Roanoke’s official low was 20, meaning the Star City has yet to have a low in the teens all winter. It was the seventh morning this month Blacksburg fell into the teens — that seems a bit odd in such a mild January running 2 degrees above normal at Blacksburg and 4 degrees above normal at Roanoke.
A weak disturbance passing tonight may kick up a few rain and snow showers, mostly in West Virginia’s Greenbrier Valley along the I-64 corridor into Virginia and northward. Don’t expect much. More rain will arrive Friday night into Saturday with a new cold front — of Pacific origin, not Arctic. A little sleet or ice would not be out of the question on the front of that in outlying areas mainly north and northwest of Roanoke, but even that is doubtful.
Speaking of doubt, we’ve talked about the possibility of a sharp warmup for several days next week, with widespread 60s and maybe a 70-degree reading or two possible. There are some new reasons to doubt whether or not a warmup of that caliber will occur. The first is the potential for high pressure to the northeast to wedge southward east of the Appalachians. We’re not talking a cold enough air mass for wintry precipitation, just cool enough to keep highs more in the 40s and 50s than 60s. The second is that this weekend’s front may stall just south of us, providing a path for occasional waves of low-pressure to throw rain and clouds on us. (Both the wedging high to the north and the stalling front can be seen on this projected Sunday weather map, courtesy of the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.) The third is that a cold front at midweek may shunt any really strong warmup before it gets much of a chance to get going. As of now, Monday appears to be the warmest day, with some southerly or southwesterly flow ahead of one of the waves of low pressure, and 60s may yet be possible on that day. I was fully expecting a 70-degree reading or two by Tuesday, but that seems unlikely as of now. Winter storms that don’t materialize are often called “busts” by winter fans — perhaps this time a springlike warmup will be a “bust,” although temperatures will still likely be above normal most of the time in the next week to 10 days.
It’s a complicated push and pull between air masses that, in the short term, probably won’t please spring lovers a lot and almost certainly won’t please snow lovers. As the jet stream seems to be loosening near the North Pole to allow more cold air southward (the shift from a strongly positive Arctic Oscillation phase to more neutral or possibly negative), I think it’s likely February is headed to being the coldest of the three winter months relative to normal — but that in itself is not saying a lot, seeing how mild December and January have been. We’ll see if patterns over the northern Atlantic and northern Pacific will alter to allow more true Arctic air southward for longer periods of time, or if they’ll stand pat and leave us with middling temperatures for much of February like we’re likely to see the next several days.
January 19, 2012 - 9:09 AM
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Well isn’t this nice!! We can’t even get a good warm-up to happen! If we aren’t going to see much snow, at the very least it can warm up for us a little bit to be comfortable! LOL!
Hokie Trax and Doppler Carol, I responded on the previous post to both of you.
It has warmed up to a chilly 29* here on Melrose this morning.
Warm up on the way – it is now 26 F and that is only because the sun is shining on the thermometer. I have been outside some this morning and the breeze is coming out of the south/southwest. It is not a warm breeze.
Nurse Snow – yes, you can make your own suet but I find it easier to buy it. I buy a box of it at Tractor Supply. You will have to buy a bird book so you can id them. Even when I taught school, I had a little window mounted feeder on my classroom window.
The artic front is coming, the artic front is coming, get your muckalucks! Um…. I mean super warm temps are coming, super warm temps are coming, break out the T-shirts! Um…Jeesh even the HPC is lost in this unusual winter! I know it will still be above normal temps, but oh how I long for the day I “hear” Kevin blog “The pattern change is coming, the pattern change is coming!”
The atmospheric pattern seems to be in a perpetual state of minor change with no major results.
That should be spelled arctic. I’m not sure about muckalucks.
OK, which one of you — a fellow commenter or just a reader? — stopped by the Melrose Post Office yesterday afternoon and asked, “Does Doug Griggs work here?” One of our great clerks told me that the guy who was asking had a beard. Anyway, yes, I do work there, but I usually do not return to the post office until 3:45 or 3:50 PM. Whoever you are, thanks for asking about me. You may even know my postal nickname now. If you do, how about keeping it to yourself …. Pretty please? Nurse Snow knows it, BTW, and I think both Kevin and the “all powerful snow hater” Sam Oakey does, also. And one more sometime blog commenter that is a fellow letter carrier.
Wasn’t me, Doug, Was with my mother and son most of the day on the opposite side of the valley.
Todd: I always capitalize “Arctic” too since it refers to a specific geographical region where the air mass originates. The AP Stylebook by which we base a lot of the grammar and usage in the newspaper mentions a lowercase “arctic” that can generically refer to any cold air mass. I always mean from the Arctic region, so I capitalize. Not to get on to you in any way, just to highlight a sometimes word struggle I’ve had here over the years.
The CPC’s new maps are out today and snow lovers will not find much help in the February outlook. The Green Winter continues.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/
Oh, wow, I never meant to hint that it was you, KM. I would hope that you would leave your name. The clerk told me that the guy “was about your age, Doug.” Poor guy. That means he is probably over the hill, like I definitely am. LOL
Tomorrow is a “benchmark” day. Technically it is not about weather, although tv weather forecasters are the ones who give the details on this. Tomorrow Roanoke has exactly 10 hours of daylight. I’ll take it.
Seattle still currently reporting snow, as of 6:40. New York City and Boston also appear to be getting first winter storm of the year this weekend. DT on latest report also thinks February could be more interesting, but nothing set in stone.
The CPC’s February outlook looks just like it was copied from a textbook diagram of a La Nina winter. That doesn’t mean it’s necessarily going to be wrong, but it’s not much of a surprise.
I think snow lovers now would settle for 1 week out of 4 in February being wintry — which would still mean the month as a whole could average above normal in temperature. Maybe even just 3-4 days.
the Dave Tolleris commentary Roa10 refers to — very good and detailed analysis, if the “butt” reference in the title doesn’t bother you:
http://www.wxrisk.com/2012/01/big-bertha-and-the-butt-sisters/
Similar to what we’ve discussed here mentions the warm surge being important in any potential colder pattern change — and though early next week looks to be not quite as warm, we may see a decent warm surge late next week as a new low develops to the west.
In case you haven’t noticed — weather service forecasts have knocked 10-15 degrees of our projected highs for Sunday, owing to the cold-air damming event I mentioned in the post. Low 40s highs for Roanoke/Blacksburg now — actually could be a little cooler at Roanoke than Blacksburg in this kind of setup. Still showing steady warmup into next week. Maybe 60s by second half of next week. I’m not betting on 70 anymore.
Kevin, thanks for including the link to Dave Tolleris’ analysis. I read through the beginning, then jumped to what he said near the end. I am really impressed with the guy’s understanding of long-range developments that need to fall in place in order for a pattern change. In my opinion, it is perplexing, even bewildering that a guy like him that knows so much about weather and oscillations and vortices, (etc. etc. etc.) can come up with some of the worst snowfall predictions I have ever seen on this blog (I am recalling last winter). He reminds me of a baseball manager who is terrific at handling his pitching staff and the use of players and finding rest for the stars while nurturing the rookies, all over the course of the regular season (i.e., the long run), but is a complete disaster during the pennant race stretch drive. Some old baseball experts, both players and writers, claim that what I just described was what manager Gene Mauch of the 1964 Phillies was like, BTW.
My friend in Reno, NV just wrote…………..We set a record for having no measureable precipitation in December and the first 15 days of January. Hopefully this week we’ll get a bunch…..at least in the mountains.
What is the forecast for this weekend looking like? Will it be a complete washout or more showery?
Saturday morning may be pretty wet, but only some showers after that. Working on an update talking about the weekend — including the possibility of some ice/sleet Friday night/early Saturday — right now.