2012.02.08
UPDATE 10:30 AM, 2/10: Another quick shot of Arctic air, maybe some weekend (light) snow, and then back to mild late next week
WINTER WEATHER ADIVSORIES T ONIGHT AND SATURDAY GILES, BLAND, WYTHE, GRAYSON COUNTIES AND WESTWARD; ALSO ALLEGHANY AND BATH COUNTIES (UPDATED 10:30 AM, 2/10)
UPDATE 11:30 PM, 2/9: Still looks on track for a mild day in the 50s on Friday, then an Arctic front, some light rain becoming light snow Saturday night with scattered, spotty light accumulations in most of Southwest Virginia, and a cold blustery weekend with highs in the 30s and lows in the teens to low 20s by Sunday morning. There is also some chance moisture arrives before cold air departs Monday night and Tuesday, something to keep an eye on. Amounts in both situations are expected to be LIGHT — at this time there is NO large winter storm on the horizon, though a widespread light snow or mixed precipitation event is possible early next week. In a winter with not quite 2 inches of total snow at Blacksburg and not quite half an inch at Roanoke (and that really didn’t cover the whole Roanoke Valley), any light amounts are worth noting. I’ll plan to put up a full new post early Friday evening regarding light snow chances overnight into Saturday. END UPDATE
One location near Wytheville reported 1 1/2 inches of snow Wednesday morning, but spotty amounts elsewhere were generally less than 1 inch. Even at that, the system may have maximized its snow potential for Southwest Virginia, as it arrived early enough in the day so that temperatures had not already climbed well above freezing. So with a good amount of evaporational cooling occuring as the snow fell into drier air, it cooled the atmosphere enough that flakes even reached the surface in much of the Roanoke Valley, and accumulated in grass and on exposed objects at several locations around Southwest Virginia. A little more than we were anticipating, but still very little in an almost non-existent winter.
We have one punch of Arctic air pushing in tonight, and that will take us to near normal temperatures (40s highs, 20s lows) for Thursday. As has been the case all winter, we quickly rebound back into the 50s by Friday afternoon, only to see a much stronger punch of Arctic air push into the region Friday night and Saturday, as shown by all these blue and purple colors pouring out of Canada on today’s European model. A round of light snow is possible in much of Southwest Virginia late Friday night and early Saturday as a upper-level disturbance pushes through. There may even be a touch of overruning moisture drawn up into the system from the western Gulf of Mexico. Some light accumulations will again be possible, the depth and extent of which should become at least a little more apparent by Friday. The big story this weekend will be the cold, with widespread low sin the teens by Sunday morning and highs in the 20s and 30s both Saturday and Sunday.
True to form, things quickly warm up next week, as there is no strong high downstream in the north Atlantic to hold in the cold air, and a storm system is expected to take a path to our west, drawing up milder air from the Gulf of Mexico. Another heartbreaker for snow fans on the week of Valentine’s Day, another heartwarming tale in the winter of 2011-12 for snow dislikers.
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I saw more snow fall today in Radford than I expected, it was a steady moderate snowfall for at least an hour. But it melted pretty fast. At this junction I’m ready for winter to be over. Any desire I held for snow has steadily drained away this winter as time passes.
Comment by Jonathan Allen — February 8, 2012 @ 11:58 pm
I think there are quite a few snow-liking folks ready to put this winter out of its misery.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 9, 2012 @ 12:04 am
There remains some chance the leading edge of the surge of Gulf air next week encounters some leftover cold air and triggers a little wintry preciptiation, more likely sleet or ice than snow on Valentine’s Day or so. Some models have been showing this, including tonight’s 0Z GFS. Not an uncommon event when milder air overtakes an Arctic air mass. Probably not a huge deal, but something worth mentioning.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 9, 2012 @ 12:12 am
Leo H. just announced that a location in Russia (sounded like it began with an “S”) reached a “rather cool” negative 70.6 degrees Fahrenheit air temp. Not wind chill.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 9, 2012 @ 6:56 am
Kevin,
I believe you mentioned Roanoke’s new average snowfall is 18 inches a year. I’m curious, do you know the yearly median amount? It seems this would be a more useful measure of central tendency since it would not be skewed by our really banner years or nearly snowless years like this one.
Comment by Howard — February 9, 2012 @ 7:26 am
Well, It seems that the snow chances are just talk again this go round. I have completely just given up on any snow to enjoy this year. Local stations say “Oh it snowed at such and such place” but the snow they are talking about was like flurries or maybe a light coating on the cars or grassy areas. Oh they say its good chance of more snow coming. Yea right. More coatings on the grass and cars. WHOOPEEEEE. If thats all thats going to happen just call it flurrys and nothing else. I have gotten pretty tired of hearing “Its going to snow, or we have a good chance of seeing snow tonight’ well WHERE HAS IT BEEN? Sure not where I live. You could have counted the number of snow flakes on both hands that I have recieved at my house. I hate to wish my life away but I will be so glad when April gets here and I can put the snow shovels and snow blower back in the corner to hybernate yet another year. Get out and plant my garden. Won’t be hard to do because the ground never got cold enough to do much freezing. Just tired of all the snow talk that never turned into anything. Such a heart break to have heard all this snow talk tis season to recieve nothing. I’m thru ranting now. Just listening to the local weather stations is about like Sammy Snowman here predicting the weather. Not very accurate. The way I’m melting away I’m just about down to a little pile of slush.
Comment by Sammy snowman — February 9, 2012 @ 7:55 am
We got 0.13″ of liquid from the storm yesterday, but just a trace of snow as it all melted on contact at the house, nothing turned white there. Even in Blacksburg, it could only stay white briefly if the snow was heavy enough to keep ahead of the melting. As soon as it slacked up, it was gone.
So a question for Kevin…with the snow contest, if Roanoke does not recieve a storm that drops an inch of snow, how will the scoring be handled for the contest? Did anyone guess that the snowfall would be this low?
Comment by Other John — February 9, 2012 @ 8:32 am
Sammy S:
My Rule No. 1 of weather and life: No one is entitled to the weather they want or need at any time for any reason.
No one is entitled to snow because they want it, no one is entitled to miss snow because they hate it. No one is entitled to good steady rainfall because they have a farm, a garden or an orchard that needs it. No one is entitled to a rain-free weekend because their daughter is having an outdoor wedding or their favorite football team doesn’t play well in rain or because there’s already been too much rain and they live in a flood-prone area. Etc.
Just a fact of life. The atmosphere doesn’t really care what any of us desire or need, doesn’t organize itself accordingly, either for or against that. Just the way it is.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 9, 2012 @ 8:45 am
Howard: I actually did figure the median snowfall for Roanoke long-term (dating to late 1940s) a few years back, and it was close to 18 inches. The new mean snowfall of 18.5 inches reflects the 1981-2010 period used for climate norms by the National Climatic Data Center. Looking at data all the way back to 1912 (I will be writing about that in the future), it appears that 18 is close to the long-term average. The snowfall averages that were closer to 2 feet were heavily influenced by the 1960s, which were anomalously snowy. Snowfall both before and after the 1960s has been — on average — nowhere close to that decade.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 9, 2012 @ 8:52 am
Other John: Grading the snowfall contest is going to be very hard whether or not we get any significant snow from here on out, largely because there are very few predictors how have any first-snow dates after early January. There are a few who were right on target for Blacksburg’s Jan. 2 first-snow date.
There are some folks who picked single-digits for snow totals but most have December first snowfall dates, so their overall scores will be low. The winning score in the lowest-score-wins competition will probably not be very low.
If Roanoke doesn’t get an inch of snowfall in a single event, that part of the contest will be eliminated and it will be judged on the other 3 — Roanoke’s total snowfall rounded to the nearest inch (currently 0, though just 0.1 inch will move it to 1, as it’s now at 0.4 and 0.5 rounds to 1), Blacksburg’s total snowfall, rounded (2 inches) and Blacksburg’s first 1-inch snowfall date (Jan. 2).
It’s such a murky mess I’m not touching it til at least mid-March.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 9, 2012 @ 8:55 am
This is from “the other Mike” that posted awhile back. I wonder if the roles might be reversed. You were talking about how snowy the 1960s were, do you think that severe weather in the spring/summer has increased to a level not seen in years in our area? Or is it just the level of awareness of tornado activity that makes it seem that way. It seems to me that the NWS isn’t messing around with it either as I noticed throughout last year that Tornado warnings and watches seem to appear more often in our area than in other years.
Comment by Mike — February 9, 2012 @ 9:49 am
Last spring was definitely a heightened period of severe weather nationally and in our area. That said, history shows that periods like this do occur once every decade or two. Tornadoes in our mountains are not as rare as many people think, but neither are they as common as in the tornado “alleys” of the Deep South and central U.S. Communication and awareness are better so we hear more quickly about tornadoes and severe storms that would have largely gone unnoticed 50 years ago.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 9, 2012 @ 10:07 am
Euro and GFS models this morning advertising moisture catching up to cold air early next week (Monday night/Tuesday) for possible snow to mix to ice to rain episode. It’s a very plausible scenario in this pattern, with mild air overtaking cold. Will be watching it.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 9, 2012 @ 10:11 am
Trouble in Paradise?
12Z NAM & 12Z GFS develop a wetter event that comes closer to the coast. It’s a closer call compared to earlier in the week. Temps will be still be warm & precip shield will not come far enough west to affect SW VA. The Arctic Air needs to come in first & penetrate farther south, then the low needs to develop farther south near Savannah/Charleston just off the coast & track more west if this is to bring snow to Central & Western VA. Right now, this is a I-95 snow event from DC north. There may be some wrap around/upslope snow coming in behind the front but not enough to matter.
12Z 1000mb PMS/precip loop from Allan Huffman:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znamPMSLthickNAMLoop.html
12Z GFS 850mb/precip loop from Allan Huffman:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06GFSLoop.html
Notice the doughnut hole over VA on the GFS? Again Low needs to develop after the arctic front moves thru and track a little further west.
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 9, 2012 @ 12:17 pm
I think the coastal low is almost a foregone conclusion that it will not be able to provide snow to our area. I said on a comment in a previous thread that if the coastal low develops fairly strongly off Hatteras or the Virginia Capes the upper-level energy from the west may “jump the gap” and leave a hole of little or no precipitation (besides upslope snow showers) in western Virginia. Best scenario for folks around here wanting a little white this weekend would be for the coastal to be weak, late or non-existent, and take what you can get from the disturbance behind the cold front. Wouldn’t be much but an inch or two wouldn’t be out of the question.
Funny how this storm the models showed a week ago appears to be on track to happen after all, just starting later and farther north. Axis of the eastern trough is too far east for it to fire near the Gulf where SW Virginia snow fans would want it to.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 9, 2012 @ 12:52 pm
NWS-Blacksburg discussion this afternoon for potential Monday night-Tuesday overrunning event — check out the last sentence for a little meteo-humor:
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES…85H TEMPERATURES AND FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL PRIMARILY BE SNOW INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY KEEP SNOW IN LONGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460. WARM NOSE EDGES INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA IN THE AFTERNOON TO CONVERT THEM OVER TO RAIN. WITH THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT…KEPT POPS AT A CHANCE BUT DID LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE 40S…PREVIOUSLY HAD 50S. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOW AND UNDER 3 INCHES…MAYBE LOWER. A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. LETS GET SOME CONTINUITY BEFORE RAIDING THE GROCERY STORES OF BREAD AND MILK.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 9, 2012 @ 4:22 pm
Just bread and milk? We need eggs for the french toast too!
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — February 9, 2012 @ 4:41 pm
Moderate to heavy snow yesterday between 3:00-5:30,only picked up half of an inch at it was 34-35 and it was melting until the sun went down.We`ll have to see how this weekend pans out and also next tuesday.
Comment by Mike in Marshall — February 9, 2012 @ 4:45 pm
A lot of the forecast guidance for next week is keeping the early week storm SOUTH of us. Very critical, as it allows cold air to hang in more stubbornly, even get a bit of a reinforcement on the backside of the low. Second storm next week looks much more inland and likely mild, but perhaps not as quickly or intensely mild as we were thinking earlier.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 9, 2012 @ 4:53 pm
Just went to the store for the weekly groceries – got milk! Already have the bread and we have our own eggs. Guess I am ready for that little bit of snow. LOL!
Nice day up here near the Doppler. Sunny and cool but not windy and cold. Getting ready for the cold snap coming this weekend.
Comment by Doppler Carol — February 9, 2012 @ 4:54 pm
I like how the NWS discussion uses 3 inches as the ceiling of “low” snowfall. This winter, 2-3 inches would seem like a blizzard (well, except for those of you around Wythe and Floyd that got nailed in the Jan. 14 clipper blizzard)
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 9, 2012 @ 4:58 pm
D. Carol, a country gal like you, knows you ain’t gotta run to the store even in a 3 day storm. Flour, dryed milk, corn bread and you just make your own bread on the wood stove and then reach up on the shelf and pull off a jar of whatever is there. You can make cornmeal and bread without eggs, as you well know. Canned deer meat, canned sausage, canned tenderloin or side meat, beans, canned corn and some taters will hold you for a long time. Quit canning lard, but always have plenty of cooking oil handy. Nice ain’t it, not to have to fight a mob to get staples you and I have a shelf full of. If they’re calling for a blow, I will stop and fill all my gas cans up as well as the truck and cars. Outside of that, letter blow. Anybody that can’t make do wid that, I don’t know.
Comment by wdbrand — February 9, 2012 @ 5:22 pm
Yeah the 18z GFS (still shaky this far out) has 1-2 inches of snow. I guess beggars can’t be choosers if that’s what happened.
Comment by ice storm lover — February 9, 2012 @ 5:34 pm
Do you have a gut feeling for this weekend yet, Kevin? NAM wants to keep skipping us over with the snow while GFS is more widespread over our area.
Comment by Roa10 — February 9, 2012 @ 5:39 pm
This weekend I think is more of the streaky, spotty light snow we’ve seen about 3 times before. Not too big a deal. A dusting to an inch for some folks, just flakes in the air for the others.
I’m more interested in Monday night/Tuesday, mainly because it is a setup I’ve been hypothesizing for weeks as having potential in this winter’s overall pattern, with Gulf moisture overrunning a cold air mass before it can pull out. Not expecting a huge winter storm, but certainly could be some wintry wonder in that, depending on how it develops.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 9, 2012 @ 5:43 pm
Kevin, Looking at Tuesday on the 18Z GFS (tell me if I’m interpreting correctly) it looks like there ain’t a whole lot of precipitation anyway. Even if it stays cold we’re not gonna get that much snow. Am I missing something?
Comment by Mark in Pulaski — February 9, 2012 @ 6:59 pm
Yep, wdbrand, – got everything we need to make it through a “snowstorm”. The Man of the House likes to give me a hard time when I ask him what he wants for supper. He likes to tell me “Let’s eat out”. I got all excited the first time he said it thinking we were going out to eat!!! Then he added “out of the garden” – meaning anything and everything we may have canned or frozen from the garden. So during a snowstorm – we will “eat out” as he says.
Comment by Doppler Carol — February 9, 2012 @ 7:04 pm
Meanwhile, the CPC has issued its monthly El Nino – Southern Oscillation Diagnostics Discussion today. You can use the following link to look at it: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml#history This La Nina has just about reached the same strength that it was at in Feb/March of 2011. (In Figure 2 of the HTML version of the Monthly Discussion). Then it was about -1.25 or -1.3, now it is very close to -1.2. But in the summary, the CPC expects La Nina to weaken enough by the March-April-May level that it will be still negative, but in the neutral region.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 9, 2012 @ 7:44 pm
D. Carol. We, same as you, normally have the option of putting our frozen stuff in a cooler and sitting it out on th deck in case the power goes off, like it did here in “96″ for a week. Ran the generator for hot water and lights, and a TV show or two for the girls, and of course for the 2 couples that moved in with us til the power came back on, that weren’t prepared for such an event. Bedtime came early that week, and the generator fired at 6 AM every morning. Was a most enjoyable time. Simple, but making the best out of it. Griiled out on the deck most every evening in 2′+ snow and eat like kings. The day the power came back on, our standard of living went down.
Comment by wdbrand — February 9, 2012 @ 7:51 pm
Mark: You’re interpreting correctly. Here is the 48-hour total precip through early Wednesday morning on the 18Z NAM
http://tinyurl.com/7p3caa9
Shows .10-.25 inch liquid in our region — which would translate to roughly 1-2.5 inches of snow IF (1) ALL the precip is snow and (2) ALL of it stuck, neither of which is anything close to a lock at this point.
Overrunning type situations like this, if it remains on the model, tend to moisten up at least somewhat as we get closer to the event. Keep in mind though that if this moistens up a whole lot, it would mean warm air advection would simply overrun the pattern and it would become mostly or all rain. (Overrunning situations with thicker Gulf moisture only work for heavy snow when there is something pressing the cold air in tightly — Jan. 29-30, 2010, storm with 8-12 inches in our area was an example).
If the Monday-Tuesday event goes absolutely bonkers, I could see a 3-6-inch type snow occurring. More likely is something less transitioning to wintry mix and then possibly rain. If the models are consistently showing this in another 48 hours, I would say this is our biggest chance of a widespread wintry precipitation event we’ve had this entire season. Still not convinced the low won’t be farther north and this turn into more ice to rain than snow.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 9, 2012 @ 8:01 pm
I forgot to post this last night. 10 weeks down, 6 to go. Or maybe I should be “optimistic” from my point of view and say “only 3 to go.” But many of you would say that it has been a “negative 10 weeks down,” because as far as you are concerned, winter never started. And I would say that Punx Phil needs a quick turnaround, because the first week after his forecast sure has been pretty tame as far as snow is concerned throughout the eastern U.S.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 9, 2012 @ 8:08 pm
And Kevin, I forgot to mention, but one day earlier this week was the 200th anniversary of a huge natural event, that happened less than 300 (probably a lot less than that) miles north of your original home town. Do you know to what I am referring?
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 9, 2012 @ 8:11 pm
I just did a Google Search, and actually there were 3 major “events” covering a big geographic area and with the 3 events months apart …. The one I saw in the newspaper mentioned 2-7-1812.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 9, 2012 @ 8:14 pm
New Madrid Earthquake. Actually there were a series of similar quakes up and down the fault in 1811 and 1812. The nature center in my hometown of Jonesboro, Ark., has an interesting interactive video about the quake in which the seats shake as the screen shows boats on the Mississippi River bouncing around turbulent water.
I grew up with the specter of that rumbling under us at any time.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 9, 2012 @ 8:15 pm
Right you are. I have a window open on an article by the USGS, and it claims that earthquakes continued into 1813. By the way, earthquake fans, the three biggest eartquakes were all at least 7.5, with practically countless aftershocks. The first big quake was a 7.7 on 12-16-1811, with several aftershocks over 6. Then another biggie of 7.5 on 1-23-1812, and another 7.7 on 2-7-1812. The many quakes were spread over hundreds of miles from NE Arkansas, eastern Missouri, western Tenn. and Kentucky, and even southern Illinois. I wonder if there has been an earthquake as large as 6.0 in any of those areas since then. If not ……. they could be overdue …..
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 9, 2012 @ 9:29 pm
I have to remember to turn on the car radio to 89.1 FM tomorrow afternoon at 4:30. But I’ll probably forget. The only sure way to remember is to have the radio left on and tuned to 89.1 as I turn off the ignition.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 9, 2012 @ 9:52 pm
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif
obviously the HPC isnt on board for anything significant around here early next week….
Comment by Flutie — February 9, 2012 @ 10:26 pm
That map shows about the same amount of precipitation as all the others, light amounts. NWS, models, HPC, all in line for no more than .25 inch liquid, at this time. There is no source currently projecting heavier amounts for next week’s overrunning situation, but several suggesting a good part of it could be frozen.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 9, 2012 @ 10:50 pm
Hey, Nick (of E. Valley), you mentioned the other day that WSLS Channel 10 has a warm weather bias. They are forecasting a Roanoke high of only 52, while Channel 7 is going with 53. However, I then checked what “10″ is forecasting for Saturday and Sunday, and ….. Whoa Nellie!! Huge differences with WDBJ7. WSLS-10 is forecasting highs of 43 (???) and 39, while “7″ is predicting 39 and 33!!! NWS is almost identical to WDBJ7: 40 and 33. Your assertion is hereby proven!! Of course, 10 might end up being correct on one or both days ….. altho’ I doubt it.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 9, 2012 @ 11:07 pm
It’s possible Saturday could be one of those days when the high is at midnight and the rest of the day is colder. Depends on how much clouds/precip/sun occurs in the day.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 9, 2012 @ 11:08 pm
0Z GFS brings low closer to coast with colder air in place but not a lot of liquid to work with. Bulk of the moisture hugs the coast. 0Z NAM was pathetic.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06GFSLoop.html
I’m getting worried about next week. Could be a very serious severe thunderstorm outbreak in the South in the 15th-16th time frame.
Comment by Captain Glen Quaggy=mire — February 9, 2012 @ 11:09 pm
Saw that, Quagmire. That’s actually the second much stronger low that follows the weak low that might throw a little moisture our way early in the week.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 9, 2012 @ 11:11 pm
Not including today, there are 8 days in the books this month. Roanoke is 7.5 degrees warmer than normal!! Blacksburg: +6.2!
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 9, 2012 @ 11:15 pm
Another view of the 0Z GFS from PSU:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_0z/avnloopnew.html
all the right ingredients are coming together for some bad stuff in the south just east of the Mississippi River after hour 108. IF the cold air stays in place like you said, could get interesting for the east coast as well.
Comment by Captain Glen Quaggymire — February 9, 2012 @ 11:21 pm
Doug, I’m glad my assertion was proven correct (most of the time at least).
Ya know, it’s funny. Every time I have gone some place this winter, it has snowed, but never here! Looks to be the case this weekend. I’m heading east to where the storm will be. Hopefully, there’s a nice chunk of snow here for my return.
Now, the storm next week is highly intriguing! Not to be the pessimist, but it seems as if Captain Glen is worried about a severe storm outbreak. Could that potentially ruin our snow chances? It may indicate the strength of the precip. but can’t those strong Gulf thunderstorms cut off our snow potential because those storms steal the moisture. Ugh. I hope that doesn’t happen. That’s literally robbing us of our snow, which we are WAY overdue for. We definitely deserve something.
Comment by Nick in the Elett Valley — February 10, 2012 @ 12:58 am
Woke up this morning and found a very interesting forecast calling for upwards of 1 foot of snow up here. WSW is in place. Kevin is that due to upslope snow or is the storm now forecast to tap some gulf moisture?
Conditions were great yesterday and they have the guns cranking now. I would guess they are pushing as much air and water to the top of the hill as is possible.
Comment by John from Snowshoe — February 10, 2012 @ 5:36 am
27* and a very light frost on the grass here at 6 AM. Beautiful moon in the western sky.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 10, 2012 @ 7:03 am
Light frost up here on the ridge this morning and a temp of 19 and partly cloudy. Brrr!
I will try to listen to you Kevin this afternoon. Will you be talking about snow chances or lack of?
Comment by Doppler Carol — February 10, 2012 @ 7:25 am
I’m SO loving the NWS forecast for Snowshoe this weekend. Maybe some of it will survive over the mountains and give you all a dose of the white stuff. I just hope driving home will be possible Sunday.
Comment by Matt — February 10, 2012 @ 7:46 am
Been out of the loop a couple of days. Home computer is down and have not been in the office to blog. NWS now has a WWA for tonight and tomorrow with 1-3 inches. More snow Monday Night and Tuesday morning turning to rain. Sounds like all we need from the store is a couples slices of bread and a pint of milk to do us till we can get out.
Comment by Chapel Guy — February 10, 2012 @ 8:29 am
Snow in the high country of eastern West Virginia will primarily be upslope-driven — there is a weak disturbance moving through, but it’s the northwest winds tapping Great Lakes moisture that will be the prime driver. Much of that region is now under a winter storm watch. Here is the statement from NWS-Blacksburg for Greenbrier County, WVa, south of Snowshoe, mainly for the western part of the county near Quinwood.
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=WVZ045&warncounty=WVC025&firewxzone=WVZ045&local_place1=Lewisburg+WV&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 10, 2012 @ 8:30 am
Kevin, Radar showing snow in Abington…NOW??
Comment by Pistol Pete — February 10, 2012 @ 10:14 am
34 and rising in Abingdon — so not necessarily snow. Anything on radar today will be warm air advection induced, and will likely be rain showers by afternoon. We are not in the Arctic air flow yet, though it is possible some moisture hits the morning cold air and produces snow or sleet for a time.
If it’s one of those radars that paints white or pink for snow/ice I never trust those. The radar itself is not painting the colors, it’s put on there by local reports with “best guess” where there are no reports.
Anyone down that way seeing snow?
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 10, 2012 @ 10:33 am
“Ground Truth” radar at 11:10 showing nothing hitting ground in Virginia.
http://screencast.com/t/ddkrKYeC36
Comment by Johnny — February 10, 2012 @ 11:21 am
Wasn’t anything down there around 11. No rain or snow.
Comment by wdbrand — February 10, 2012 @ 11:26 am
lots of virga out to the west, that’s what the radar is picking up.
12Z GFS takes coastal low a little farther east now. But Upper Vortex with the front brings in good upslope snows for the mountains. Snowshoe looking at 9-12″ by Saturday PM/Sunday AM. Expect winds up to 40+ mph. Higher ridges maybe 50+.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html
There are 2 rain events coming into focus. Valentine’s Day & 18-19. Latter could be bad for the south with severe outbreak possible.
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 10, 2012 @ 11:53 am
A question. Every radar site I’ve looked at shows precip, including NOAA. But if it’s virga, what radar/site will actually show whether it’s hitting the ground or not. Most confusing.
Comment by wdbrand — February 10, 2012 @ 12:11 pm
Johnny, how do you determine whether it’s hitting the ground or not at 11:10 AM? It sure looks like it is. Do have an advanced version that allows you to change settings or filter out virga/clutter?
Comment by wdbrand — February 10, 2012 @ 12:26 pm
I’m worried about the winds Sunday. I’m flying out of Roanoke at 11 AM on a Canadair jet. Can they handle the wind?
Comment by Jay — February 10, 2012 @ 12:50 pm
D. Carol, you’ll see it first up at the water tank, so give us a heads up when it starts.
Comment by wdbrand — February 10, 2012 @ 1:21 pm
wdbrand “Ground Truth” radar uses spotter reports and visual confirmation from weather cams and other sources.
Here is a shot at 1:20 http://screencast.com/t/meAvafVbwsk
Comment by Johnny — February 10, 2012 @ 1:34 pm
On the road to Giles! I hope the weather service is correct about the 2-4 inches of snow they are suppose to get! Might be the best snow I see this year!
Comment by jared french — February 10, 2012 @ 1:34 pm
I’m looking at those screen shots, but like wd, confused as to how to tell if it is hitting the ground or not. Where do you find the spotter info?
I bet the grocery stores are getting busy already LOL
Comment by Shanon "Nurse Snow" — February 10, 2012 @ 1:40 pm
wdbrand:
What you have been seeing is the precip aloft. The only way to verify if it is hitting the ground is by station observations…If the station has precip falling there you go. Right now there are no stations reporting surface precip in NC, VA, WV. I’ll post stations obs when the precip starts. Another way to tell virga snow from ground precip is by the light blues are hazy and spread out. The greens are heavier returns and may have stuff hitting the ground.
Jay:
Hold on to your hat on take-off and tighten down on the belt. The first 4-5 minutes will be rough to say the least, at least moderate to some severe turbulence as you climb out of ROA. Once you get above 8000-9000′ the ride will get better. You will run into more turbulence as you get above 18000′ with the vortex & jetstream winds which will be well over 100+ knots. The strongest winds will occur Saturday PM & overnight into Sunday AM.
If you’re going to Atlanta, Charlotte or Detroit you’ll have headwinds and turbulence on approach. Going to Philadelphia, good luck. they will have delays due to the weather by at least 3 hours. I know PHL well from my airline days. They start delays when there is just one cloud in the sky.
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 10, 2012 @ 1:45 pm
Jay…
btw, the Canadair Regional Jet can handle the winds and turbulence. Tough little plane. Bombardier flight tested the aircraft in Hurricane & the severest of turbulence conditions. CRJs get 2 thumbs up from this Professional Pilot.
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 10, 2012 @ 2:12 pm
On the ground truth radar shots the SN = Snow, SN BR = Snow Mist, RA = Rain. Those locations show the ground confirmed observations.
http://screencast.com/t/jNd5Q1yeAoY
Comment by Johnny — February 10, 2012 @ 2:13 pm
Thanks Cap’t. I knew it wasn’t hitting the ground by looking at the PWS’s in a three stare area, but was showing up on radar. That and no chatter on this board[reports].
Comment by wdbrand — February 10, 2012 @ 2:24 pm
I have been gone all morning volunteering at my granddaughter’s school – this old teacher just can’t stay away. I came out of school after lunch and the sky sure looks like it could snow. When I got home, I pulled up the radar on the computer and it shows it up there in the atmosphere. Guess it is the virga, huh? It will make it through the upper levels eventually so I will watch for it. It is currently 47 F up here on the ridge. Guess it will start out as rain when it does come. Birds are really visiting the feeders – guess they sense something coming so they are stocking up with their version of milk, bread and eggs!
Comment by Doppler Carol — February 10, 2012 @ 2:53 pm
Friday 12Z Euro update…
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html
At hour 240 which is Monday, February 20 aka President’s Day has a strong low off the Carolina coast which has the potential to bring snow for the Mid-Atlantic & New England from NC northward including much of Western & Central VA. I promised not to hype or hug the models. I am only presenting the facts of what the model is showing. I am not making a prediction on this as we are still 10 days out. The fact the Euro is showing this on this day is historic. Hostoric as in how many other major snowstorms have occurred on the President’s Day holiday?
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 10, 2012 @ 3:02 pm
Again folks. My disclaimer. I know that the models this season have been awful and I don’t put very much faith in this scenario working out and all the variables will probably go wrong. The variables being, NAO, the Polar Vortex, jetstream phasing, track of the Low, temperatures cold enough for snow, 50/50 Low & Greenland Blocking. How many times have we seen the models say something big may happen 10 days out and it never materializes? I lost count.
Right now, this has a 5% chance of happening. But I will take into consideration that February 20 is a very signifcant historic day in regards to major east coast snowstorms.
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 10, 2012 @ 3:13 pm
Not commenting on Feb. 20 yet — but I would say that what you labeled as a “rain event” on Valentine’s Day at 11:53 pm, Quagmire, is now consistently shown with 850 mb temperatures that would support snow in our region. Not a lot of precipitation though.
HPC was noting that the models were really having a hard time now because we have the split jet stream flow for the first time all winter, and timing the waves on the north and south branches was difficult.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 10, 2012 @ 3:42 pm
They are treating thr roads here on the VT campus….
Comment by HokieTrax — February 10, 2012 @ 4:09 pm
DT is jumping all over the supposed Presidents day storm on the 20th! He usually doesnt get so excited this far out, so there must be something that is showing him that there is a very good chance of this happening! Just in case it doesnt materialize I had better enjoy my 2-4 inches in Giles this weekend, because its next to impossible to get any snow in Greene county without a coastal storm!
Comment by jared french — February 10, 2012 @ 4:47 pm
No, Jared, the Captainis not getting excited about Feb. 20, just presenting what a model or models show. You’re the one getting excited. Although you are probably positioned to have a better chance of seeing snow than most areas in SW Virginia along the I-81 corridor and east of I-77.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 10, 2012 @ 5:26 pm