2012.02.21
UPDATE 12:20 PM, 2/22: A brief look at active weather ahead, and a long last look at the 2/19/2012 snowstorm
UPDATE 12:20 PM: Showers seem to be ahead of schedule, already approaching Interstate 77 corridor shortly after noon. (Local National Weather Service Doppler radar linked here) Some rain, possibly accompanied by a little thunder, will be possible this afternoon as this spreads east and northeast. Temperatures are already well into the 50s, approaching 60 at Roanoke (58), by noon. END UPDATE
UPDATE 9:40 AM, 2/22: Speaking of active weather … there could be a few rumbles of thunder and flashes of lightning amid some showers this afternoon and this evening (Wednesday) with a passing upper level disturbance. The area of showers and storms is already showing up in Tennessee on the regional radar composite. After this goes by, southwesterly winds will bring what is likely to be the first 70-day degree for Roanoke since Nov. 27 on Thursday. As mild as this winter has been, the warmest days have topped out just short of 70. END UPDATE
The snow that’s left will become a memory the next couple of days, with a high near 60 today for Roanoke (50s to the west), near 70 on Thursday (60s to the west) and near 60 with some showers on Friday as the next cold front arrives to knock temperatures back some for the weekend. The strong northwest winds on Saturday will likely induce those typical upslope snow squalls in 
West Virginia and some of the westernmost areas of Virginia — the ski resort areas in the WV might add some inches. Then we warm up yet again early next week, followed quite likely by another cold front. It appears we are entering a period of active weather in the central and eastern U.S. with some wild swings in temperature — though, for our region, averaging on the warm side — with powerful low pressure systems that will spawn some severe storms, heavy rain and big snows, depending on the track of each storm. We’ll be watching the development of each system to see if it can bring any of those to us . Regions not far from here may have a risk of severe storms late this week.
Before this snow becomes a memory, a look back.
The National Weather Service in Blacksburg put out its summary of Sunday’s snowstorm online today; it is linked here.
A few quick thoughts of my own:
* This was a unique event in recent weather history locally, and it will become an oft-cited case in point anytime anyone brings up that “it’s won’t snow because it’s been too warm” or “it can’t stick because the ground is warm.” I’ve listed some other cases where it snowed significantly the day after it was mild to warm, but unlike each of those cases, this storm did not involve a strong Arctic cold front or a large amount of cold-air damming. There was subtle advection of colder, drier air from the northeast that aided in evaporational cooling, but a good part of the cold air that made snow possible was a result of the dynamic processes within the storm itself literally lowering the freezing level from 2 miles up to the surface. This storm created its own cold air.
* We often pay close attention to the North Atlantic, Arctic and Pacific-North American oscillations to determine the likelihood of a colder weather pattern and winter storms. In this case, two of the three factors were opposite of what we look for (NAO/AO in positive mode, no high pressure blocking over Greenland/North Pole to force Arctic air farther south), while the the third, the PNA, was only weakly where we typically expect it in winter storm situations (positive phase, some high pressure on West Coast, leading to split jet stream and slight northwest flow out of Canada). The lesson here is that the optimum pattern occurs infrequently, but winter storms can occur in small windows of opportunity during a pattern largely not conducive to wintry weather for our region.
* This storm emphasized again the dual nature of weather. Virtually every weather event has positive and negative ramifications. As someone who spends time each May taking students out to see supercell thunderstorms and tornadoes, which can be absolutely breathtaking visually over the open Plains but yet so destructive and deadly if they end up in a populated area, this has long been something I have pondered. Sunshine is essential for life on Earth, but also kills through heat stroke, famine-causing droughts and skin cancer. Rain is also necessary, but can easily lead to destructive flooding if it comes too fast. This snowstorm was absolutely gorgeous in how it covered the landscape, etching a lacework on every tree branch — many who don’t like snow have admitted that – but it also led to power outages for 60,000-plus in Virginia and West Virginia . For me personally, it was the first time I could ever build snowmen with my 2-year-old son, but it also took the power out at my mother’s house for nearly 2 full days.
We have snow lovers and snow haters on the blog, but in the end, the weather doesn’t really care what any of us love or hate, and regardless, it has the power to bring joy and misery to each of us — sometimes at the same time.
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Amazing statements, Kevin, and I agree with all of them. You got truly profound. Congratulations!! Bravo!! (and I spelled that word correctly!) I found this storm fitting. Last winter there were many promising threats of abundant or at least decent snows, but many of them either underperformed or even were a “bust” according to some here. This winter there have been a lot fewer threats, but yet again they mostly fizzled. The snow lovers have been very unlucky for a long time. Finally Mother Nature, the odds, whatever, brought together everything just right and a very significant snowstorm developed DESPITE positive NAO and AO. Sunday’s snowstorm mushroomed despite an adverse NAO. It was bigger by far for lots of us (me included) that any single snowfall last winter when the NAO was in wonderful phase for snow (negative). But with the snow cover from it now gonzo, I would be willing to bet a heap that it won’t happen again (not even a little one) this winter/early spring in the Roanoke valley. wd can start planting his onions.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 21, 2012 @ 11:36 pm
This snowstorm happening right after an unseasonably warm day (64* in ROA on Saturday) reminds me of an event that led to an historic storm, which caused an iron ore ship to sink at the eastern end of Lake Superior, which led to Gordon Lightfoot’s biggest hit song. I am talking about the wreck of the iron ore ship Edmund Fitzgerald in early November 1975, and the song “The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald” by Gordon the next year (I believe). The song had one of the most haunting lyrics I have ever heard: “Does anyone know where the love of God goes, When the waves turn the minutes to hours ….” That storm was truly immense. It led one Swedish captain who was on the lake that night to say that it was the worst one he had ever witnessed, despite guiding trans-Atlantic voyages for decades before that. What most people don’t know is how warm it was in Superior, Wisconsin (sister city to Duluth, Minn.) the day Edmund left there. 70*. That would be like 80*+ here in Roanoke in early November …. crazy warm. But there was an immense front coming in from the NW with temps 40 degrees colder than that, and that sometimes spells “BIG STORM.” By the way, I learned some of these facts from a book I read about the tragedy.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 21, 2012 @ 11:48 pm
A little SNOW showing up on the GFS for this weekend.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=FCX
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — February 22, 2012 @ 6:20 am
That’s the upslope potential, Rick. Note the bullseye in West Virginia and gradually dwindling eastward.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 22, 2012 @ 7:04 am
Neither the 0Z GFS nor Euro show the same 2/29 winter weather threat that they did at 12Z Tuesday, both show cold air not being far enough south. In a volatile pattern that’s subject to change either way, but the lean of the overall climate pattern would lean against winter storm threats. Most lows are likely to track west of us, bringing milder air, followed by sharp, windy cooldowns for a couple of days on the backside. This weekend won’t be bitterly cold, but breezy cold on NW winds and some snow showers will be a rude awakening after possibly scraping 70 on Thursday.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 22, 2012 @ 7:22 am
If you enlarge the satellite photo from Kevin’s link, you could probably see me shoveling my driveway.
Comment by Mark in Pulaski — February 22, 2012 @ 7:35 am
I liked your article above Kevin. Your points are valid and it was well written. Nicely done.
Comment by Leo Lady — February 22, 2012 @ 7:44 am
Well, I was happy to see the snow this past week-end even though it did not stay very long and though I was without electricity at the house for 2 days. But I’m still lucky some don’t have current yet. Everyone has to admit or should anyway it sure was pretty on the trees and all Monday morning. Well, even though I like the snow I too am ready for Spring and firing up the ole mower. I put my check mark beside “Stick a fork in it”,(thats not usually a good thing to say for a SNOWMAN now is it?” If by chance we get anymore snow it too will be gone the next day or so. Thanks Kevin for all your knowledge and posts even though most the time I have no clue whats your talking about but have learned quite a bit. All for now.
Comment by Sammy snowman — February 22, 2012 @ 7:46 am
The snow Sunday afternoon was amazing in its intensity. We seemed to pick up a couple of inches in just an hour. It was surreal Saturday putting the snow chains on the UTV, wearing a short sleeve T-shirt. We ended up not needing the chains because the snow didn’t get deep enough on the farm lane to need plowing. This was definitely more like a springtime snowstorm than a winter one.
Comment by Jason in Riner — February 22, 2012 @ 8:36 am
Great entry, Kevin. And, let me thank you once again for your tireless efforts. You provide such a fantastic tool for so many of us who have to travel or whose jobs are otherwise affected by the weather. With your (and your readers’) analysis, I was able to tailor my travel plans to stay as safe as possible. You have my immense gratitude.
Comment by Howard — February 22, 2012 @ 8:54 am
Talking about beautiful snow formations, dogwood with tiny branches at the end of limbs holding snow like little torches illuminated with Christmas lights off the front porch
Comment by Low Humidity — February 22, 2012 @ 8:59 am
Just added a short update to note possible showers and even thunderstorms (!) tonight with a passing upper-level disturbance. Also notes last time it hit 70 degrees at Roanoke, as it’s likely to do Thursday. Clue: It wasn’t in meteorological winter.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 22, 2012 @ 9:46 am
We were without power for 2 days at my house, luckily had a generator we could use to run a few things during that time.
Kevin, super article! Loved how you summed up Mother Nature and her distinct fickle attitude.
I still have(or did this morning) about 4 inches of snow in my back yard. Going to let the kids get out and sleigh ride some more this afternoon hopefully.
Comment by Shanon "Nurse Snow" — February 22, 2012 @ 11:32 am
Kevin, if this was a typical winter and lets say the temperatures were below freezing throughout the storm and the surfaces were also below freezing. Considering the amount of precip that fell, how much accumulation would Roanoke have received?
Also do you know if lightning was confirmed or could that be attributed to transformers blowing up?
Thanks
Comment by John From Ruckersville — February 22, 2012 @ 1:20 pm
John: No confirmation either way on lightning.
As for how much snow would have fallen with a more uniformly cold set up — I suspect Roanoke offiically would have been in the 7-8 inch range. Most locations would have gained 1-2 inches — Roanoke maybe a little more, considering it started sticking a little later and continued melting underneath a little more than higher elevations. Liquid equivalent doesn’t seem to indicate a lot more than that.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 22, 2012 @ 2:07 pm
For all the fancy equipment and algorithms to predict what we think would happen, nature reminds us that we sometime aren’t smart as we like to believe.
I like the balanced perspective you offered about the sun, rain, and snow.
Lightning are absolutely beautiful to look at, yet they are deadly and terrifying at the same time.
Comment by Trevor — February 22, 2012 @ 4:00 pm
John from Ruckersville, I made a post within an hour of 6 PM on Sunday that I heard what I am fairly sure was a brief, small thunderclap here. Later that night, some time about 10:30, I heard a loud BANG and I am quite sure that was a transformer going out for some poor souls within a mile or so of me. The two sounds were very different, so that’s one reason why I feel pretty certain that the 5:20 PM one (might have been a bit earlier than that) was thunder. Also, that was when it was snowing like crazy … the storm’s intensity was near its max.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 22, 2012 @ 5:46 pm
The first 21 days of February are “in the books,” and we will definitely go for the trifecta: all three winter months WAY above normal. Dec. was something like +4.9 here in Roanoke, January was a +4.8, and February is a +3.7 so far. Tomorrow is a big +, the weekend will knock back that average some, but the early days of next week also look like they will be way above normal. I seriously doubt that any of the winters starting with 2000 have had all three winter months end up 4+ degrees above normal. I am starting to research it — just call me “Mr. Research” …. on 2nd thought, please don’t — and the winter of 2001-02 was another toasty one, too, but not as consistently warm as this one. More on that in a separate comment. I am worried about the 55 pound CAPTCHA monster going after this comment.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 22, 2012 @ 5:59 pm
The only two winters that rival this one since 2000 were the winters of 2001-02 and 2007-08. The temperature variations by month in those two winters for Roanoke (starting with December) were +5.3, +5.5, and +2.4 for 2001-02, and for 2007-08 they were +5.3, +1.4, and +4.2. The winter of 2006-07 started off the same way, and rivaled the winter of 2001-02 through January, but then the NAO must have nosedived or something, because the progression that winter went: +5.2, +5.3, -4.0! I have a feeling that all three winter months this time are going to end up above +4.0
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 22, 2012 @ 6:13 pm
Kevin and everyone, I looked at the CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts a few minutes ago, and there is no news there for Virginia. Good chance of being warmer than normal on the 6-10 day, and an exceptional chance of being warmer than normal on the 8-14. But there is big news (at least for me) there. Nearly all of the states of Washington and Oregon are in purple on the 6-10 day, meaning that they have a colossal 70% chance of being colder than normal!! Anybody know if that involves one or two snowstorms?? Alaska also predicted to be colder than normal on both maps.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 22, 2012 @ 6:22 pm
I saw lightning, there are no overhead transformers in my neighborhood. In a previous career I worked trimming trees from power lines, and had the misfortune of blowing a transformer when I dropped a limb across two lines. What I saw in the snow was nothing like that. It was almost like a purple flash from a camera, just everywhere instead of a focal point. I did not hear thunder, and I wondered if the snow muffles it.
Comment by Trevar — February 22, 2012 @ 6:34 pm
Whether or not there was lightning Sunday, I just saw a flash and heard thunder tonight.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 22, 2012 @ 8:36 pm
Big lightning flash here just now and rain has began to pour.
Comment by Roa10 — February 22, 2012 @ 8:40 pm
Thunder and very heavy rain in Bburg.
Comment by Gavin in Blacksburg — February 22, 2012 @ 8:45 pm
Wow – big clap of thunder. Wasn’t expecting that!
Comment by John Baldwin — February 22, 2012 @ 8:52 pm
Well, we’ve seen it all this week. A flash of lightning & thunder here in Blacksburg.
Comment by Ranger Tom — February 22, 2012 @ 8:53 pm
I did mention thunder in both of my updates today.
This was a disturbance expected to produce a few showers orginally, but had more instability with it as it came across the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys.
Welcome back to our premature spring that only impersonated winter for a day!
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 22, 2012 @ 9:10 pm
Someone in Shawsville reported hail on Facebook about 45 minutes ago.
Comment by Jason in Riner — February 22, 2012 @ 9:12 pm
Guess who had to make a quick run to the grocery store to buy dinner meat for his overworked wife about 8:40, and got out of the car at the precise moment when the rain was the heaviest (at least that I saw/heard)? I cannot remember seeing it rain that hard in a very long time, it seems. Maybe once back in January? Of course, it might have happened in the middle of the night since 1/1, also. One bonus of having a dog whose hearing stinks: even 3 years ago I would have returned home to a overly worried, panting dog from the thunder. Tonight? He was off in la-la-land when I came home.
I am hoping to play some golf tomorrow, preferably in Draper. They did not answer the phone twice today when I called …. possibly closed because of snow still on the course. That problem is probably disappearing in a hurry tonight.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 22, 2012 @ 10:59 pm