2012.02.20
A quick look back at the snow, and a quick look ahead at a warmer future
I’m still in snowstorm recovery mode, so instead of coming up with anything brilliantly original, I will post links to 3 images from the National Weather Service speak for themselves in helping put Sunday’ snow in perspective.
National Weather Service-Blacksburg map of snow accumulations (along with a final list of snow accumulations across the region)
Virginia snow cover Monday morning on visible satellite
Watch out for black ice on Tuesday morning, as clear skies, calm winds and snow cover will maximize radiational cooling, with some lows in the upper teens and low 20s possible. It’ll shoot back up to near 50 Tuesday, may challenge 60 on Wednesday and possibly 70 on Thursday.
All parameters point to warmer than normal weather over the next couple of weeks, at least. A weekend cold front will be a quick shot, maybe enough for mountain snow showers on Saturday. Next week may be very warm if the European model is on to something — like it was for Sunday’s snow several days out. The Climate Prediction Center apparently agrees.
I’m finally sticking the fork in winter, now that I just put the snow shovel up.
RSS feed 
There is a really cool satellite photo of the region’s snow here, from NASA: http://twitpic.com/8mklpw/full — Very cool, definitely worth a look!
Comment by Daniel — February 20, 2012 @ 8:26 pm
Was this storm a Miller A?
Comment by Roa10 — February 20, 2012 @ 10:00 pm
I was wondering when the map would be out from NWS. In the big snows from two years ago they seemed fairly accurate based on what we received here in Goodview and what others noted on this blog. The map for this storm however doesn’t seem to reflect what most people were reporting. It has us in Goodview with between 5 and 6 inches even though we had 7.
Comment by Brian — February 20, 2012 @ 10:02 pm
WOW!!! Even Kevin is calling it quits!! Does that mean that there will be nothing more than some high-elevation, upslope snow showers in SW Virginia from now through early April? What exactly does your “fork” equate to, Kevin?
I agree that the next two weeks will overall be incredibly warm … no way am I going to “argue” with the 3 major oscillations all favoring warm weather for Virginia. But I am STILL gonna wait and see.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 20, 2012 @ 10:17 pm
Went to work in Mount Airy this morning and had about 3″ on the ground. By the time I came out side midafternoon,it was 54 on the sign next door,and not a bit of snow to be seen!
@zack: I live in Woodlawn,just a stone’s throw from Harmon’s Outlets.
Doug: Thanks for the veterinarian comment,my dad practiced for 47 yrs,and was one of the first in this part of VA. I grew up helping him on farm calls and in the office. Kinda runs in the family…
Comment by Clarkdocvet — February 20, 2012 @ 10:27 pm
Uh oh. Sticking the fork in winter may just make Mother Nature mad! LOL.
Comment by John Baldwin — February 20, 2012 @ 10:35 pm
Wow Daniel, that is a COOL picture!! Thanks for posting!
Comment by John Baldwin — February 20, 2012 @ 10:37 pm
Sticking a fork means I don’t expect a true wintry pattern to set up early enough for it to be really winter. It does not necessarily mean there will not be a unique setup that could yield snow (though I am doubtful). Snow is part of early spring in our area fairly often.
Some concern about freeze potential in April if the AO/NAO flips late. Going back to positive now on the AO probably means it’s no sooner than mid March before it could turn hard enough for a colder overall pattern.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 20, 2012 @ 10:48 pm
OK, thanks for detailing your “fork” statement, Kevin. However, your 2nd paragraph means that I/we all can stick a fork in my prediction of March being 5 degrees below zero. Murphy’s law of outrageous predictions got me. I should have gone out on the limb back in late October or November and gone with my gut feel, that this winter was going to be quite a bit warmer than normal. I would really be looking great if I had made that one. Instead I weaseled out and said something like I thought this winter would be no colder than normal. So I went “all in” for the cold March … I really did believe the NAO would be going negative big time by no later than March 3 or 4, but that now looks extremely dubious. Wait ….. I hear something very close by …… CRACK!!!!! Never mind …. only the limb that I went way out on.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 20, 2012 @ 11:11 pm
By the way, what did you mean by a “true wintry pattern?” Temps at least 6 degrees colder than normal for a week or so?
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 20, 2012 @ 11:13 pm
Also, most of the tv weathercasts I saw this evening (I went for the trifecta at 6 PM, watched parts of all 3 … “13″, then “10″, then “7″) warned of the infamous black ice very early tomorrow morning. One thing I do to “combat” that is to put the car in a low gear going downhill and try to avoid the brake, even if the traction tires go into a little slip.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 20, 2012 @ 11:16 pm
I am not a snow lover, more of a hater to be honest… BUT that kind of snow storm, a quick several inches and make everything look nice, than warm up, so the roads and driveways are mostly clear within 24 hrs. Nice and somewhat warm for the kids to play in too!
So this snow hater, really liked this storm! I really hate the ones that happen and then a strong cold snap and the snow sticks around for weeks..
Comment by Andy J — February 20, 2012 @ 11:28 pm
Comment 98 on the previous thread, at 10:02 PM. Musical link, and this time it was not from me. Check it out, snow lovers.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 20, 2012 @ 11:35 pm
Just took the old boy out one last time, and the night was practically magical. Starry sky, not a breath of wind, and absolutely quiet. Reminded me of the Christmas poem: ” … not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse …” Nor a deer, nor a fox, nor a skunk …. just a 13-year-old adorable mutt and his 60-year-old letter carrier master ….
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 20, 2012 @ 11:53 pm
Doug: I suppose “true wintry pattern” would have to be more than just departure from normal, since we wouldn’t call 6 degrees below normal in July wintry. It’s one of those vaguely defined “I know it when I see it” kinda things, but here’s my best shot at it: Any 7 day period in which at least 5 days, or any 14-day period when at least 10 days, average 37 degrees or lower for the day.
Roa 10: Was it a Miller A? It did involve a low moving in the correct manner for that but there was incomplete phasing between the southern and northern branches at the time it passed through. It may go down as more of an upper low type storm system for us since we got just about no moisture from the southern storm. These labels can be a bit imprecise and vague sometimes.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 21, 2012 @ 7:36 am
Im not sticking a fork in the snow chances. Models bring some LOWS down the gulf and up the eastern side of the US. (most of which go over top of us for rain), but if they go lower and more easterly…then we got a another shot.
Comment by Pistol Pete — February 21, 2012 @ 9:55 am
Unless my eyes doth decieve me there is something going on around here. It is snowing here downtown.
Comment by Trevar — February 21, 2012 @ 10:08 am
A few spits of snow out my window right now! Radar shows some weak echoes ahead of an advancing warm front.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 21, 2012 @ 10:09 am
Yes..had some Graupel this morning around 9:20 in Giles
Comment by Pistol Pete — February 21, 2012 @ 10:11 am
All I meant by my “fork” comment was that we’re not going to have this winter pattern with the jet dipping south and cold air being blocked in like we’ve been looking for since, oh, mid Novmeber. Snow now would depend on a short-term setup … just like the one we just had.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 21, 2012 @ 10:13 am
Just come up 221 to da Knob and had to look twice cause I didn’t believe my eyes the first time. Spittin a few flakes at 34*.
Comment by wdbrand — February 21, 2012 @ 10:19 am
Glad you saw it too Kevin! About 9:45 am we had a few quick bursts of snow flurries and then the wind picked up. I couldn’t believe it till I looked on radar. Still cloudy up here on the ridge and still in the mid 30′s. Very little melting going on this morning.
Comment by Doppler Carol — February 21, 2012 @ 10:19 am
I’m with you Kevin, let’s stick a fork in the winter! Snow shovels are put away and I am about to get out the grass seed.
Comment by Patrick — February 21, 2012 @ 10:24 am
It looks like the rest of the year starting in March will be ENSO/SST Neutral…..not El Nino or La Nina. Is that something like, “neither a lender nor a borrower be”? Slides 27-30.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — February 21, 2012 @ 11:37 am
In response to a previous comment I saw on this thread! Andy J…I am the “polar opposite”…hehe…pardon the pun. I LOVE the historic/heavy big un’ snows that happen that linger forever with many cold shots that reinforce snow pack and make it viable for more snow when more moisture streams in. This isn’t a frequent pattern for Roanoke, but does happen every so often. Makes me think of these winters in my lifetime…Several late 1970′s winters, 1982/1983…one major February 1983 snowfall, 1986/1987, 1992/1993…several moderate February snows culminating in our infamous March of 1993 blizzard, 1995/1996….the biggest and my own personal favorite and of course our awesome winter of 2009/2010. The entire decade of the 1960′s I missed, but heard was a very snowy time. The winter of 1993/1994 was known for it’s brutal cold and multiple crippling ice storms. Let’s face it…I am a winter fanatic and don’t get near what I would like each winter.
Comment by scott saunders — February 21, 2012 @ 12:28 pm
Fork it Kevin, I got onions to plant.
Comment by wdbrand — February 21, 2012 @ 1:19 pm
12Z Euro, 12Z GFS both show Leap Day winter storm potential, believe it or not. Temperature roller-coaster next couple of weeks — up, down, up up, maybe down again?
In the more immediate future — could be sizeable upslope snow event this weekend for WVa mountains/west of I-77, some snow showers bleeding eastward, behind intense low-pressure system moving from NE US coast into SE Canada.
Maybe I need to get out of the kitchen drawer?
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 21, 2012 @ 3:53 pm
Definitely likely to average above-normal temps here next couple of weeks, with stiff cold shots interrupting at times, but pattern appears likely to be very stormy and changeable across central/eastern US.
March roars in like a lion?
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 21, 2012 @ 4:06 pm
Bring on the snow showers…looks like I’ll be heading up to Snowshoe, possibly for the last time this season so I’ll take anything to cover up from the sprink-like weather they are getting this week.
Comment by Brian — February 21, 2012 @ 4:54 pm
Looks like Yogi had it right all along.
Comment by wdbrand — February 21, 2012 @ 5:01 pm
A question if I might. How do you make the search feature work???????????????????
Comment by wdbrand — February 21, 2012 @ 5:03 pm
Thanks for detailing “wintry pattern,” Kevin. I guess my reply to “AW” silenced him or her. From my point of view, I would call his statement yesterday as a “hit-and-run” comment. Maybe that will trigger a response.
Perhaps what you folks saw about 10AM was snow, but it was definitely graupel where I was on Peters Creek Road NW. The first time it made its surprise guest appearance was at 10:04. That stopped quickly, then I saw one or two more brief “flurries” in the next 30 minutes. When it first happened, it was loud, and my immediate reaction was “OK … WHO’S THE WISE GUY WHO IS TOSSING TINY WHITE BEADS OVER MY TRUCK!!” No graupel was falling as I stopped the truck and turned off the ignition, but the instant I stepped out to make a delivery, about 50 graupel pieces came down on me at once.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 21, 2012 @ 5:10 pm
Scott, (12:28 PM) I am surprised. I somehow got the impression you were a young guy. How old are you, if you are willing to say? You are still probably at least a decade younger than me, but that ain’t sayin’ much …. :>) :>) Oh, I cannot remember if I posted it here or not, but I have said it a few times today. If all snowstorms were like this one, I wouldn’t be a snow hater. The snows (and slush and then icepacks!!) of the winter of ’09-’10 are what I hate.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 21, 2012 @ 5:14 pm
Rick, thanks again for the umpteenth time for posting the weekly ENSO report. And you are right, La Nina is definitely weakening now. That -0.6 for the weekly SST in the 3.4 region is the “least negative’ it has been in a looooong time. It was a stubborn La Nina. Key is what happens next autumn. Does it remain neutral, or does it go right into an El Nino? I don’t give it much chance of going back into a La Nina for a 3rd straight winter, but I suppose it has happened once or twice (I don’t feel like going back through all the data … even the number of La Ninas that either lasted two years or went briefly neutral in summer (like what happened last summer) and then returned as a La Nina for another winter season is not that high, possibly only 4 or 5 times. And if we do get an El Nino winter (if not in 2012-13, then in 2013-14) and it is another cold one (with a long-lasting NAO thrown in for good measure), it may be party time all over again for you snow lovers. And possibly “retirement time” for me ….
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 21, 2012 @ 5:30 pm
Kevin, practice what you preached to your son, put the cutlery away.
I’m not ready to pronounce this winter dead. We’ve seen some abnormally weird weather the past few years, massive outbreaks of tornadoes, extreme heat, snowstorms at Halloween followed by barely any snow cover the next few months, 60+ deg one day with snow the next, heck even earthquakes. I believe it ain’t over yet by a long shot and has a few more surprises in store for us.
Quags!!! Asleep in the back row again!!! Give me a chart, any chart to give me some hope that ski season has a few more weeks left.
Comment by John from Ruckersville — February 21, 2012 @ 5:36 pm
Sounds like Mr. Myatt is stirring the pot a little……
Comment by Mark in Pulaski — February 21, 2012 @ 5:49 pm
Hi Kevin, Thanks for your great coverage of the snowstorm this past weekend. I wanted to comment on the models showing some type of winter storm next week: I saw this on the past couple of model runs this past weekend as well. I just wasn’t sure if anyone else had seen it (and I didn’t want to distract from the REAL snow we were actually getting).
Comment by Travis — February 21, 2012 @ 5:56 pm
Sunday was definitely a Miller A snowstorm, says the weather service. I’ll post this again with my next entry, but the Blacksburg office have a good meteorological review online now:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/events/2012/Feb19_snow/summary.php
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 21, 2012 @ 8:40 pm
Thanks Kevin! I enjoyed reading their overview of the storm and especially the animated radar they include.
Comment by Roa10 — February 21, 2012 @ 9:13 pm
Kevin I do believe your fork is premature
Some signs 2 weeks out seem to say so. I for one am not ready to close out winter. I am still lucky to have snow in the front yard. Have a great evening
Comment by Randy Oakey Cahas Mtn. — February 21, 2012 @ 9:50 pm
Hey Kevin, on your next entry can you update us again on the possibility of the leap year storm? I havent heard any chatter about it! Usually DT, Bastardi, or Henry M. mention a storm at first sight by the models!
Comment by Jared French — February 21, 2012 @ 10:22 pm
Oh yeah, Pistol! What is Graupel?
Comment by Jared French — February 21, 2012 @ 10:23 pm