2012.02.22
After thunder/lightning Wednesday night, highs near 70 will continue spring theme on Thursday
If you hadn’t shifted back into a springtime mood yet after Sunday’s snowstorm, thunder and lightning on this Wednesday night may have woken you up. Overnight there could continue to some heavy rain, its runoff effects augmented by ground made moist by snowpack (and ongoing snowmelt on many sun-shaded slopes.) Beware of some possible standing water on roadways in and around Southwest Virginia if traveling overnight or early Thursday. Temperatures on Thursday will continue the springlike theme, with highs possibly reaching the 70-degree mark, especially at Roanoke (projected 69 on National Weather Service regional temperature map). 70 degrees would not be close to the Feb. 23 record of 76 for Roanoke, set in 1943; Blacksburg has some shot of hitting the record of 69 set in 1980. For Roanoke, 70 is not an exceptionally extreme mark even in winter — only 8 dates all year, scattered in December, January and February, have never had a 70-degree high. It would be the first 70-degree reading for Roanoke since Nov. 27.
A windy cold front blows through Friday (another mild day, with upper 50s to mid 60s) with some showers, and then breezy chill for the weekend. Doesn’t look to be an extreme blast, with highs hanging in the 40s from Roanoke eastward on Saturday, but there will probably be snowflakes in the air and colder temperatures to the west, with some accumulating snow squalls in those favored upslope bands of West Virginia and westernmost Virginia, especially the higher ridgetops and west-facing slopes of the border counties and west of I-77. Deep Arctic air is going to have a hard time penetrating southward the next couple of weeks against a positive Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation (no blocking highs to force cold air south), frequent to persistent Bermuda high (bumping storm systems/cold air masses inland), lack of snow cover in the continental United States especially just to our north and west, and the growing hours of daylight and higher sun angle. But cold air will try to punch several times, and that will lead to some big storm systems. An active pattern, leaning to mild more often with occasional brief cold shots, is expected.
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Wow…heavy rain (with hail??), thunder and lightening here in Woodlawn…3 days after 6″ of snow!! Think somebody’s trying to tell us something??
Comment by Clarkdocvet — February 22, 2012 @ 10:42 pm
Message must have been the same 13 years ago when I chased and photographed tornadoes 3 days after snow in eastern Arkansas
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 22, 2012 @ 10:46 pm
Hard to believe everything was snow-covered just 2 days ago. Knew it was supposed to rain, but I was very surprised to see the SWS on my phone while bowling this evening. Didn’t expect quite the downpours.
Comment by Laurie - Bennett Springs — February 22, 2012 @ 11:05 pm
I am sure that the tornado season will start earlier this year in terms of large numbers of tornados happening. But I just don’t see another epic year like last year. It may be “normal,” or even a fairly active one, but not historic again. One reason (I think) that last year was so incredible was very cold temps in Nebraska and other Plains states (and maybe the eastern Rockies, like COLO.) in late March and perhaps extending into April, while the Southeast and Carolinas and Virginia had already reversed course after a cold Dec.-Jan-part of Feb. and got unseasonably mild.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 22, 2012 @ 11:07 pm
The atmosphere was pretty active tonight with heavy rain thunder and lightning up on the mountain tonight. This is strange weather to say the least. Stink bugs and other insects were active today. I fear the lack of persistent cold this winter may cause these unwanted guests to be around sooner and longer than anyone wants. The chances for sustained cold are almost over and those of us who suffer from spring allergys may be in for a lot of sneezing and scratchy eyes.
Comment by Randy Oakey Cahas Mtn. — February 22, 2012 @ 11:30 pm
And after the heat wave, you can go from Beckley to Elkins WV, specifically Quinwood and Snowshoe on Saturday to find a decent amount of snow!
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=FCX
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — February 23, 2012 @ 6:13 am
I heard a saying last night that a thunderstorm in the winter means a snowstorm 7 days from now? I realize this is an old wive’s tale, but does anybody know if this has happened in the past?
Comment by Snowvillegal — February 23, 2012 @ 7:09 am
Storms also passed through far southwest Virginia last night and another round this morning around 6 am. The creeks around my area are full and some are just ready to come out of their banks. The water table in our area is truly full and ready for spring.
Comment by Chapel Guy — February 23, 2012 @ 7:43 am
Snowvillegal: If that saying were the case the Gulf Coast would be buried by snow on a regular basis. At our latitude, thunder in winter is infrquent, but not unprecedented. The grain of truth in that saying is that thunder often occurs ahead of an Arctic cold front pushing into milder air, which would lead to colder weather afterward. That’ll be more the case if we hear a rumble tonight, and some areas over in West Virginia will get a sizeable snow this weekend with the upslope NW wind flow.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 23, 2012 @ 7:51 am
Running through the 0Z GFS and Euro real fast — looks like a series of strong low pressure systems cutting well inland next 2 weeks. That would result in mild periods followed by wetness for a day or two the quick shots of not-that-cold air, then mild again. Both models now take the Feb. 29-March 1 storm, once depicted as a possible winter storm in our region, through the Midwest, which fits the pattern much better.
My fork remains stuck in winter. I think by the time a “winterlike” atmospheric pattern could emerge it would be mid to late March or possibly later, and would just be a colder-than-normal spring pattern.
A unique setup for snow is never impossible in March or early April, even longer in the highest elevations, but the chances of a pattern that would produce multiple chances for it in sustained cold have simply gone by the wayside this season.
Feb. 19 was a gift for snow fans this winter. Getting that kind of event — bullseyed specifically on Southwest Virginia — out of this pattern is almost miraculous.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 23, 2012 @ 8:04 am
I’m fine with the transition to spring now that we got a good snow finally. The thunder and lightning last night were almost as enjoyable as the snow. Almost, but snow still takes top rankings in my favorite weather. We did get 0.62″ of rain from it, which after the snow gives us a fairly healthy February precipitation total now of 2.39″.
Comment by Other John — February 23, 2012 @ 8:10 am
Has anyone tried to use the new iflows website. Is it me, or is that thing slow and difficult? I miss the old one where you picked a gauge and read the data. All I wanted was last night’s precip. total for Pulaski.
Comment by Mark in Pulaski — February 23, 2012 @ 8:50 am
well ill be a donkey in a pig pen! We got some that white stuff didnt we ole buddy Kevin? Nice and sunny but damp morning up here down in Willis. Just the first shot ive had to get on this here computer to let you know we finished with almost 9 inches. Made for some good pushin in the ole 78! told ole Prudence(ball and chain) i was gon need that blade on the front before too long and proved to be right! made some decent cabbage pushin and clearing sunday/monday. 46 degreese and lite winds this morning. when’s the next snow yall??
Comment by Richard Sampson in Willis, Va — February 23, 2012 @ 9:22 am
Fellow Snow Hater, there must be a difference between your computer and mine, because even though I have to go through about three screens, the info comes up fairly quickly. In this comment, I will give you the rainfall totals for the previous 24 hours for all 5 of the Pulaski county sites (I bet your home is closest to the Peak Creek site if you live within 2-3 miles of the center of Pulaski). Then in a separate comment I will list the Virginia AFWS website (IFLOWS) that is one of my bookmarks. And the snow is gonzo from my favorite golf course (Draper Valley), but it will be cart path only. I spoke with my favorite greens superintendent ever, Tony, this morning. Between my cranky shoulder, damp fairways, and “CP only”, plus the hassle of I-81, I will stick closer to home for golf later today ….. “shoulder permitting.” Back Creek, Pulaski: 0.71 inches. Caseknife Station: 0.63. Cove Mountain: 0.55. NRV Airport near Dublin: 0.63. Peak Creek: 0.75. Anyway you slice it, you got a nice soaking rain.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 23, 2012 @ 9:54 am
For anyone interested in the web address for noaa’s afws site, I use: http://www.afws.erh.noaa.gov/afws/national.php That should get you into the basic site for the nation. Then click on any of the green dots in SW Virginia to get the website for all the counties covered by the Blacksburg NWS office. Then click on the specific county you are interested in looking at. If you want all the sites in that county, click on the brown area of the map within that county, and you should get a page that has all the rainfall totals for that county. OH! I forgot to mention that at the main screen, or maybe at the screen for the Blacksburg office, you need to click on the section of the page (above and to the left of the map of the U.S. on the first page) titled: “Precipitation Observations.” If you ever intend to use this site again, I recommend making it a bookmark or “Favorite.”
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 23, 2012 @ 10:01 am
Hey, did anyone here lose power last night from a lightning strike hitting a transformer, or from lightning hitting a tree and causing either a big limb or the tree itself to fall on an overhead line or pole? I hope not. If anyone had that happen to them and it was just after they got their power back from the wet snow ….. that would be a big double whammy. If that happened to me, being a tiny bit superstitious, I would check to make sure that my life insurance policies were fully intact. I would figure that Khan (Star Trek 2 movie) had suddenly found his targeting skills …..
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 23, 2012 @ 10:08 am
In the immediate Roanoke Valley, it looks like the Witt’s Orchard site was the winner: 0.71 inches. One setback for me personally happened when the afws information transferred to noaa. I have noticed on numerous occasions that the rainfall totals for the Salem Pump Station and the site extremely close to me, Sugar Loaf Mountain, are showing “—-”s, meaning that the sites are not working. I guess I will have to make sure that I have a “Fully operational Death Star, young Skywalker ….. ooops, rain gauge.”
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 23, 2012 @ 10:22 am
Thanks Doug. Your link wouldn’t work til I removed the http://www.
The link I’ve been using is
http://72.66.190.197/Virginia_IFLOWS/index.php
Try that and see why I’ve been frustrated. I will use your link in the future.
BTW is the Roanoke postal shakeup affecting you?
Comment by Mark in Pulaski — February 23, 2012 @ 10:56 am
Mark – Yes, the new iFlows site is TERRIBLE I miss the old one as well!
Comment by Wayles — February 23, 2012 @ 11:18 am
Well, as the 88-year-old guy said on the witness stand (part of Down East humor) when asked if he had lived at his current address “his whole life,” he replied, “Not yet …” Same for me with the postal shakeup. Even though it was announced that the Roanoke mail handling facility (“MHF”) will be closed in late spring or so, we letter carriers were told that there would be talks involving the two U.S. senators from Virginia no earlier than May 15th, and that only after those talks had ended could Roanoke MHF be closed. My take on it is that the closing looks pretty certain, but not etched in stone quite yet. The closing by itself would only affect employees who work at that facility. After that, assuming the MHF is closed, that empty space may be totally refurbished and used for “another purpose,” which could affect us letter carriers. We would still have jobs. What would have an immediate impact on us letter carriers once it is implemented is a change to 5-day delivery, no Saturday delivery. Let’s squash any further questions about it (at least to me) until the MHF is absolutely, definitely going to be closed and has a date for that to happen, and/or congressional legislation is passed to end Saturday deliveries.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 23, 2012 @ 11:47 am
Doug, it’s not weather related…but related to #20…I wonder what impact that would have on Netflix, since they have a DC warehouse in Salem. I would imagine that their business model would require them to shut down or relocate that facility to a place closer to a MHF so their delivery times stay reasonable, though, I think they already have a site in Greensboro so they may just consolidate operations. The loss of a delivery day would also impact them and Blockbuster with the by-mail service they offer too, maybe pushing more demand onto the streaming content.
But now back onto weather…it feels downright tropical outside in the 60′s today. Very bizarre for February, but if we can’t get more decent snow…I’ll take this weather. I just don’t like that it usually involves severe weather somewhere, that’s the downside.
Comment by Other John — February 23, 2012 @ 1:47 pm
Dopplerville checking in. We had a total of “0.47′ inches of rain. Currently it says it is 64 F out in the back yard.
I have been outside in the flower beds cleaning them out and pruning roses. Yesterday, I saw my the first flock of male red wing blackbirds (about 50) at the bird feeders. Heard the robins this morning – I guess they are back. Also the bluebirds were out if full force claiming their bird houses today. Let spring begin!
Comment by Doppler Carol — February 23, 2012 @ 2:55 pm
Other John, that’s exactly what I thought of when I heard that the warehouse might close… seems silly for Netflix to be in Roanoke when all their DVDs will be routed to Greensboro first before being sent back to Roanoke. It would certainly take more time to send DVDs back and receive them. Before I could send one off Monday, they receive it Tuesday morning, send out the new DVD Tuesday afternoon, and I receive it Wednesday. I cancelled the mail service since they jacked the prices up, though.
To stay slightly on a weather topic – what a gorgeous day today. We had a fire drill here at school and I didn’t mind one bit because we were able to get out of the building and enjoy the fresh air, for a couple of minutes, anyway.
Comment by Jennifer — February 23, 2012 @ 3:52 pm
Roanoke has hit 70 degrees, officially.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 23, 2012 @ 3:53 pm
Jennifer – during my former teaching days we always seemed to have a fire drill on a nice day. I think each school has to do one fire drill a month. We could just about tell if it got near the end of the month and we hadn’t had a fire drill and it was a nice day, that we better be prepared for one.
Comment by Doppler Carol — February 23, 2012 @ 4:45 pm
I could stand a bunch of todays, however, it’s too early folks. We’ll pay later. I do likes days like this tho.
Comment by wdbrand — February 23, 2012 @ 6:56 pm
Hey, wd, how much rain did you get last night, “Knob” Man? 0.65? My rain gauge was not properly seated and was very tilted when I went out to check it this morning, and had just a bit over 4/10ths of an inch. Judging from previous rainstorms in which Witt’s Orchard/Bent Mountain got the most of the Roanoke valley sites, Sugar Loaf Mountain was usually in 2nd or 3rd place. I bet I got just a bit over 0.5 inches really. According to Channel 7 Weather, Fincastle got hit with over an inch.
Oh, by the way, I have noticed a problem with the Mason Cove site on that afws website, too. Any time there is a rain event, their total never gets above 0.12 inches. Same earlier today with them. Since Fincastle got a lot and the one or two other Rnke valley sites north of I-81 got over 0.4, I am pretty sure they got quite a bit more than just 0.12.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 23, 2012 @ 10:01 pm