UPDATE 4:40 PM, 2/18: Despite springlike Saturday, confidence grows in significant snowfall for SW Virginia late Sunday
UPDATE 4:40 PM: Winter storm warning issued Bedford, Roanoke, Floyd, Carroll counties and westward; winter weather advisory Franklin, Henry and Patrick counties eastward. New blog post next hour.
UPDATE 1 PM: Numerous signals continue to point to more/heavier snow potential Sunday afternoon and evening for SW Virginia. I will post a full new blog update around 5 p.m. Short answer to those asking about travel on Sunday: Earlier in the day will be better. Enjoy the spring afternoon! END UPDATE
UPDATE 7:20 AM: A few quick points to add:
* The winter storm watch has been expanded southwestward and to include the Roanoke area and the New River Valley, all the way to the North Carolina border at Carroll and Grayson counties. Bedford and Franklin counties are barely outside the watch, but their western areas and higher elevations near the Blue Ridge may have similar accumulation with 
some totals possibly exceeding 4 inches.
* The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center has boosted much of Southwest Virginia into a HIGH RISK of 4-plus inches for the period from Sunday morning to Monday morning, with a slight to moderate risk of 8-plus inches in much of the region as well. The slight southward shift shown on many forecast models is reflected in the new bullseye area.
* With expected sunshine and southwesterly downslope winds today, the National Weather Service has boosted Roanoke’s forecasted highs into the lower 60s! So we may really stretch this spring-to-winter-and-back concept. It may be after dark Sunday before a lot starts sticking in lowest areas of the Roanoke Valley, but more of the snow is expected to happen at night with the later arrival.
So get out and bask in your winter storm watch today!
END UPDATE
What I often like to do when we’ve been following a storm closely for several days, mainly on the forecast models, is bring it back to reality by showing what it looks like on radar or satellite. While the upper-level low has been moving across the Southwest the last few days, the low-pressure system that has been the focus of our speculation for days and will be the focus of our attention the next 48 hours is getting organized in south Texas. Radar composite from late Friday night (at left), just before midnight, shows heavy showers and thunderstorms — very welcome ones in a drought-parched state — rumbling in much of central Texas. This is pretty much just what the models have been showing, so this system is, so far, on track and on time. It really exists now, not just in a silicon chip.
A few quick notes on where we stand on Sunday’s morning in the wee hours of this Saturday morning:
* Confidence continues to grow that there will be snow, and likely significant snowfall, in Southwest Virginia on Sunday. It’s a classic winter storm setup for this time of year, and there is absolutely no forecast model that does not show snow developing in our region. Amounts, intensity and timing vary somewhat, but not the existence of snow. The models could change, or be wrong, but they all show snow for several hours.
* Forecast guidance from Friday night has tended to slow down the system and nudge it a little south. This seems to be largely the result of more cold air being forced southward. All of those factors lead to the idea that Southwest Virginia will be even more in centered in the snow band than thought previously, This could result in somewhat greater snowfall amounts.
* Because of the storm system being slower, it is possible precipitation may not begin until well after the sun has risen Sunday. Colder air already in place may lead to a mix with sleet or even starting directly as snow rather than a long period of rain. It also appears precipitation will continue well into Sunday night, possibly even the pre-dawn hours of Monday.
* Highs today are still likely to reach the 50s, unless there is sufficient cloud cover to shave some degrees off of that. Today will be a day that doesn’t seem anywhere close to a possible snowfall, and it will cause many to doubt that it can happen. There are numerous historical examples of multiple-inch snowfalls occurring a day after similar temperatures or even much warmer than what we have today, but of course, we won’t know til Sunday whether this one will join the list.
As for amounts, I’m thinking — as of now, subject to change up or down with later data — that 2-6 inches will be the range for most of our region, with less in Southside from Stuart east to Danville and a little more in the Alleghany Highlands, west of I-81 and north of I-64. There will be issues with warm ground and some early melting, and like I said Friday, accumulations will be a little lumpy with snow sticking more quickly on grass and trees while not sticking as well on bare ground and asphalt. Snow may fall heavily enough at times to overcome those warm surfaces, so be aware of the possibility of finding slushy or even snow-covered roads if traveling on Sunday.
You can check in with the National Weather Service in Blacksburg and the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center winter weather forecasts page for some updates on Saturday morning.
February 18, 2012 - 12:40 AM
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Signing off for the night, will approve new comments sometime in the morning. My blog presence may be a little spotty on Saturday during the day, but I’ll be on quite a bit Saturday evening and of course Sunday as we move toward this event.
Im in Harrisonburg and the snow totals have dropped which is disappointing… I guess because of the southerly course. What are you thinking now for us? 4in maybe?
Winter Storm Watch now up for Roanoke for 4-8″ of wet snow.
KM: Looks like a bust for DC. Any chance the storm jogs a bit north and brings a few inches?
Must say I’m impressed by how healthy this storm already looks on radar this morning. Bodes well for us snow lovers. Don’t think lack of moisture is going to be much of a concern.
38* here when I took dog out about 6:20. The Weather Channel is aggressive with 2 of its forecasts. They are forecast a high of 59* for Roanoke city today, compared to 55 by “7.” But they are showing just about all of SW Virginia to get 6+ inches from the snowstorm.
“Many moon come Choctaw” as my old Latin teacher used to say when one of us gave a translation into English that made little sense. 6:57 comment by me … “They are forecast …” “forecasting” is what I intended to type. I may be crazy, but a bad speller I am not.
Much colder this morning temp at 25 with heavy frost.Calling for a high of 50 we`ll see if it hits that today!Will probaly stay in the mid 40`s up this way.Everyone have a good time talking about this storm.Doug Griggs wow 38 thats not too bad of weather to walk the dog in!Have a great day everyone!
Mr. Griggs, you mentioned yesterday about the effects of traffic on snow covered roads. And there’s really no easy answer to that. Too many variables to factor in. Like location of road, type of driving, type of snow, temps. Everybody in the urban/town driving case has seen when you come to a stoplight, the snow is slush or at least not as heavy as on the open road. Engine heat causes this from stopping and slow moving traffic. Now interstate driving is a whole different ballgame. Yes, big rigs tend to beat the snow down, but every action has a reaction. The rigs are going too fast for engine heat to do any melting or at least, very little. They also produce a great amount of wind which in turn tends to lower the surface temp on the pavement. So, there’s no cut and dried answer, IMHO. Maybe more on this later. Got to go get bread, milk and several cases of brew before I get snowbound.
The Weather Channel specifically mentioned Roanoke
6 inches+
Hey, what’s up as I wake up today……..”they” put most of SW Virginia in the bullseye. Doug, do I have to put my plow on my tractor today?
Jonathan: It will very much play the part of a non-winter today — maybe low 60s in Roanoke, and widespread 50s. And it will quickly return to a non-winter by Tuesday whether it snows or not Sunday. Not sure if a single flukish elevation-varying wet snowfall can rescue this winter from its non-winter status.
Kevin, I have always enjoyed your explanations and interpretations of the models, and adding all the others on here who know a lot more about this than I do makes this for a great forum. Hearing from Jamie Singleton and Jeff Haniewich, and I believe a few other mets from different regions, really is nice. I have followed the blogs on accuweather, but we don’t quite fall into any of thier categories, not quite northeast, not quite southeast so having this level of knowledge focused specifically on where we live is great. It is looking better and better that my concern over that last minute shift will not pan out.
Right now my biggest doubt — at least a question mark — about the situation is not the storm system or that snow will happen, it’s the boundary layer warmth in the lowest 300 feet or so of our region, the 900-1200 foot level or so, especially in an urban environment of Roanoke city during highest sun-angle afternoon period. It may be late Sunday before it gets cold enough to stick there, even on the grass. If it can snow gangbusters for a few hours in the 4-10 p.m. range, Roanoke even down to the riverbank won’t have any trouble reaching 4 inches, at least on the more grassy surfaces. Lighter snow and it may only be a minor accumulation on the grass situation, in the urban center at least. Precipitation intensity will be the key in those lowest areas, and a significant factor everywhere else.
NAM/GFS do continue to suggest arrival of colder air earlier in the day Sunday, so that may help break through residual lower-level warmth.
Good Saturday Morning from Dopplerville. It was 31 F before the sun hit the thermometer this morning.
Is today going to be “the calm before the storm”? I will be out and about today “basking in this WSW” – I have the bread, milk, eggs, and wine but no beer – will have to get some at the store while I am out.
Doug – thanks for the snow measuring tips. My decks/porches do not stick out that far from my house. I have a board down on the ground in the back yard that I am going to use.
Let it Snow! Let it Snow! –
Kevin: I live in downtown Roanoke, so that’s something I will be sure to keep an eye on.
Have not read any talk about wind, if no wind this will be a pretty snow with it sticking to the trees.
I’m getting very excited!!!! Bring on a Snow Day!!!!!
I guess Krogers should be fun today. I will make my mad rush soon. Not because of the snow, with six kids we make a mad rush for milk and bread everyday. I should have invested in a cow.
NWS forecast for Lynchburg doesn’t seem right….
Sunday: Rain and snow, becoming all rain after 11am. High near 40. Northeast wind between 8 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
My 1400 elevation will be interesting tomorrow. I’m not located quite high enough to be a nearly sure-shot 4-plus like I think just about everyone above 2,000 feet will end up with, but history has shown in wet snow events that this part of southern Roanoke County often gets at least 2 more inches than downtown, sometimes more like 4-5 inches more as in March 1, 2009, and apparently late January 1998. With winds turning northeast, I’ve already noticed an upslope cooling effect here, like on that weekend in January when we had the cold-air damming and patchy freezing drizzle — I had ice.
Brandon, I would say you could drive up to the Star and see solid snowfall tomorrow night even if downtown doesn’t get much. I’m kinda leaning toward downtown getting at least in the 2-4 inch range. Atmospheric dynamics are so strong in this situation. If the right heavy snow band lines up right over Roanoke, 4-plus and slushy downtown streets will be child’s play for this storm.
Quagmire – On Thursday at 11:23pm you had the NRV down for 8″-14″. You have not provided us with a new projection in the past 32 hours. What is the latest, now that the event will commence in less than 24 hours? Love what you do!
Roanoke’s sunny high of 62 today will not help the snow accumulation for Sunday, but hey, the Wytheville high of 57 won’t help either. Kevin has documented where the warm can be overcome.
old snow: Winds will pick up some, but don’t look excessive. Maybe some 15-25 mph stuff. Yes, it should be a pretty snow for many even if it’s messy/patchy on the ground, clinging to tree limbs and such.
If this pans out, I see it as kind of an everybody-wins situation. Snow lovers get their snow, which would be almost miraculous in this “non-winter,” and snow haters get low impact from it, with a wet snow happening on a holiday weekend likely to melt off in 2 days.
Kevin – Two questions about this morning’s HPC snowfall probability. It seems they have the NRV/RNK squarely in the bullseye for 4″+, meaning that however much snow falls, the greatest accumulation will be reported by someone in the NRV/RNK. Do you agree? Also, last night the HPC had a strip in southern WV and eastern KY in a slight risk for 12″+, but this morning they have no one in even a slight risk for 12″+. What has changed? Do they feel the storm will be weaker, or something else going on? Thanks!
35.7 this morn in Goodview as we await a hopeful arrival of some winter precip. I giggled as I noticed the new WSW issued southwestward which did not include Bedford County. I would say 8 out of 10 times we receive more snow here than in Roanoke so I’m hoping that trend plays out tomorrow.
Rick: Warmth will be a factor everywhere, but Roanoke/Salem seem to have a little extra effect with the urban heat island and the bowl of the valley kind of trapping the warmth in. If this were a situation where the primary source of cold air was moving in along the surface from the west or northwest, like a cold front, I’d say game over for Roanoke city snow. But this is a situation where cold air is coming straight down to a large extent and in a slight cold air wedge situation from the northeast to a lesser extent, two cooling situatons that often do work well for the Roanoke Valley.
I don’t see any elevations above 2,000 feet having any trouble dropping to snow temperatures on Sunday, even if it were to hit 70 today.
Unless the models shift back north at 12z you have to think Franklin,Bedford and Campbell counties will be added to the watch.
Brian: Bedford and Franklin are big counties, so I would think of the western third of those counties, especially where there’s higher terrain, being more like eastern parts of the winter storm watch.
Mike: The HPC projection does put our region squarely in the bullseye of heaviest snowfall, which is consistent with just about all forecast models at this time. The models have backed off some of those ridiculous 12-16-inch zones they were popping out a couple of days ago, so that could be some of the removal of the slight-risk 12-plus. Also, it may just be that the heavy snow zone has shifted out of a region where cold air, orographic lift on the higher mountains and moisture would have been maximized.
I would not at all be surprised to see an isolated 12-inch report somewhere, probably a higher ridgetop, but not completely impossible at lower levels if a heavy snow band develops and stays put for a few hours. I would be very surprised if this turned into a widespread 12-plus event.
Do I dare plan on sitting at the computer with all of my weather blog buddies tonight and tomorrow into Sunday night?
Kevin, any idea why NWS has RAIN ALL DAY for Lynchburg?
It just seems unlikely to me..
Donnie: If the HPC’s thinking verifies, and the local NWS concurs, all those counties, maybe even Henry and Pittsylvania, will get added. The core of the HPC bullseye is actually a hint south of the US 460 corridor (Bluefield-Blacksburg-Roanoke-Lynchburg). With a lot of the snow happening Sunday night, rather than Sunday daytime, there may be just a bit of waiting to see how things line up today.
Kevin, I have this theory that when that last vort circles in, we could get a last decent burst of snow. We had that surprise snow last year around Jan 11th (it was a Friday) and the model data showed a streak of snow along 40 in NC. They issued advisories and all and it was only a mere 100 miles north– close to an inch in LYH and reports of up to 3 in Prospect. I think it’s plausible someone gets a bonus inch or two that falls pretty intensely for an hour or two as the vort passes just to our south.
I’m so happy! This TWLS needs a snow day! I teach at a college and snow days are the only freebie vacation days we get. I’m in Henry County and and have been watching and hoping all week as you all have discussed the models, hoping that the storm would come a little south. Yay, looks like it’s happening! Getting ready to pack my puppy and join some friends for a hike today, then get ready to enjoy the snow tomorrow! Love this blog – the anticipation of a snow is so much fun! Thank you Kevin & all of the bloggers!
Alex: Lynchburg forecast is similar to Roanoke lower elevation forecast. Probably thinking daytime precipitation combined with solar maximum period combined with not being on west side of the low yet will not be sufficient to maintain snow during the afternoon in those areas. I said last night that changeover times are usually a crap shoot and not well forecasted by anyone. That’s why you end up with a lot of these vague “rain and snow” forecasts, which is what I have at my elevation for hours Sunday. Also, it seems to me to be the case in these situations that once it changes over from rain to snow, it doesn’t usually go all the way back, even for a short time. There are other kinds of winter storm situations where wiggling back and forth between 2 or 3 types of precipitation is commonplace.
I think Roanoke/Lynchburg’s snow fate is all about the 4-10 p.m., maybe extending a little later.
I live in Northern Lynchburg, right off Rivermont on the border of Amherst County, so usually I do a bit better than the south part of Lynchburg. Hopefully they end up adding Lynchburg to the watch later today.
Kevin,
How much of an impact will this shift have on the Culpeper area?
Northern Snowman: For now it looks like main core of snow has shifted south of your area, but I think you some. And it’s not uncommon for these comma-head type winter storms to shift a little north or at least expand north once they actually start really happening.
Here is a simulated 1-HR snowfall from LWX (Baltimore/Washington) NWS. I believe it’s called the NMM model. Correct me if I’m wrong. Scroll over the numbers at the top to see each frame. Looks like Roanoke is under some sort of precipitation for at least 12 hours.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/lwx_nmm12g/hover.php?fld=snow
Interesting to note that NWS Blacksburg and Sterling only have eight counties in all of VA (all near the C-ville area) east of the Blue Ridge Parkway and Skyline Drive under the WSW. It is evident they expect the Blue Ridge to be the basic geographic dividing line between the haves and have not’s. Folks out in the piedmont, I still think, will see a good couple of inches at least though.
Since this is a Sunday event, I think the big question is when will the roads potentially be slick? Wondering how the roads will be when churches let out around 12 noon. Any guess for the NRV?
Unless your church is high on top of a mountain, probably not much problem. That’s subject to change if the cold air does move in early tomorrow. Most road problems will be Sunday night when snow reaches its peak, the sun sets, and temperatures drop.
Morning all…31 this morning in Woodlawn at 2500 feet. We sit in a unique geographic area,with Fancy Gap,Va (elev 3000 ft) being only 8 miles away,and then the sudden drop down the mountain to Surry County,NC. Will be very interesting to see how quickly the snow levels drop off as I head to work in Mount Airy,NC (home of Andy Griffith,and Mayberry,of course) Monday morning. There have been many times I would leave the house with many inches of snow and see it disappear as I head down the mountain. Since we are further south,however,it often seems like cold air has a hard time getting here even with the elevation. I hope since this storm seems to be making its own cold air from above,that we do see some good snow here! Even better,I now no longer do large animal work in my veterinary practice,so I won’t be the one having to go see that sick cow in the middle of a snowstorm,as inevitably always happens!!
Not to be too picky, Kevin, but I find it passing strange that the Roanoke Times Page 2 weather forecast for today bears little resemblance to this discussion, particularly when, as you said earlier, “there is absolutely no forecast model that does not show snow developing in our region”. Love your column and this blog, but do wonder about Page 2.
Thanks Kevin. Hopefully only have to cancel Sunday night services in the area then. Going to be an exciting Sunday.
How can you get a fix on your exact elevation, since this may be an elevation dependant storm, I was curious how to figure this out? I live a little over half way up Jeters Chapel Mountain, any thoughts?
Here in Auburn posting via mobile phone. All the VA schools here are abuzz about the snow and the drive home Sunday. JMU is leaving late tonight but thbey have 11 hrs to go. We are leaving at 530 am with student driving earlier and me taking over later as we get closer to VA – way more experience driving in the white stuff. Wish us luck over Fancy Gap.
I guess us up here in Greene co. need to hope the Canadien model us correct. It takes the storm northward where is the gfs is pushing it south. Still think the Euro is best for reading east coast storms, so when does that run again?
I hope Joe Bastardi is right, he still thinks the storm will jog to the north. He says east coast storms most of the time will do that!
Bill: Page 2 weather graphic in paper is prepared by Weather Central in Wisconsin, not by anyone locally. It’s also prepared many hours before it is printed, and then there is a further time lag between going to press and being delivered to your door. Just as Weather Channel and Accuweather and NWS often are at odds, so is Weather Central sometimes.
Thunderstorms in the Gulf States concern me, They could very well rob the majority of the precip. and leave us with flurries. Do you see this happening Kevin?
Kevin or Ben,
Is that model I looked at fairly accurate for that time frame? I am driving 29 North tomorrow from Danville to Culpeper and want to stay just ahead of this thing. According to that model it looks to be much later starting. Will I be okay leaving in the 2 pm range or should I be gone before then to miss any potential problems?
Canadian model Jared refers to does spread snow area much farther north, but it’s still a pretty big snow hit throughout western Virginia and even into NW NC.
Last night’s Euro (0Z) is very aggressive with snow tomorrow, starting it areawide by 10 a.m. At one point it covers nearly the whole state in snow, except maybe immediate DC suburbs and immediate Tidewater area.
Next run comes out in afternoon.
Chad: Storms on the Gulf are much less of an issue since most of the snow will occur in the “comma head” or deformation zone on the back side of the low when it is also drawing moisture off the Atlantic. Storms on the Gulf often choke the moisture off in an overrunning setup when a low moving west to east along the Gulf throws moisture up over a cold air dome. If there is an effect like that it would more likely be Sunday morning rather than later Sunday.
Kevin, the weather channel is calling for 6-10 inches for Roanoke. I live in Floyd and since we are higher in elevation as well as colder this would cause it to snow earlier which could put down an extra inch or two so do you think we could possibly get a foot?
Jonathan: Yes, higher elevations of Floyd should get more than Roanoke UNLESS a heavy snow band happens to set up over Roanoke and not Floyd. But I’m thinking 6-10 is a little high for Roanoke city. 12-plus MIGHT be possible in a few isolated locales that can’t really be forecasted ahead of time with any accuracy.
It is amazing how often we have snow and ice on the heels of a 55-60 degree day. I remember that the Friday leading into the Superstorm of 1993 was in the mid 50′s (in fact it started as rain but quickly changed to snow as that mammoth storm pulled down cold air). Then several years ago it was in the low 60′s the afternoon before an ice storm. Just goes to show you how quickly the weather can change! LOL.
Trevar, I think you’re right about Kroger, lol. I work there part time, usually in the evenings and they’re calling in extra help for tonight and tomorrow. Hey, I’ll take a few extra hours and be able to keep up with reading the blog:-)
12Z NAM does stretch the snow area farther north, back to DC — but a big hit in SW Va. Snow area angles more SW to NE, which is typical for a Miller A low.
Bottom line: Snow remains highly likely in SW Viginia, and I think you northern Virginia folks are still very much in the game, so to speak.
From the Team Quagmire Storm Center in a secluded bunker somewhere in a quiet Central Virginia community west of the State Capital, it’s NOWCAST 2012…PD3. Reporting half alive, here’s Quags…
Good Morning Virginia! Trust everyone had a good night sleep like I did.
On to the weather. Models this morning show we are still on track for the BIG UN of 2012. I’ll go into more details shortly and provide all with my updated snow forecast. Last nights 0Z model run are for the most part still holding & converging a little more, even though I thought the 0Z NAM was a little south & CMC was a little north. Bottom line, still good to go.
Stay tuned here for the latest updates on PD3 right here at Kevin Myatt’s Weather Blog at roanoke.com. Voted as best weather blog by the SHA. Other sites I recommend during the storm are:
Dave Tolleris at wxrisk.com
Nick Sayor at stormtopia.com
National Weather Service at noaa.gov
Be back shortly for a brief update.
All this talk of snow has put a smile on my face. Of course, since I have been in therapy over our lack of snow this year I have learned to temper my irrational exuberance at the mere mention of the word. That said, I think I will allow myself a little leeway and enjoy a small happy dance …
Good morning all. For those who haven’t already checked it out, the NWS has a really nice “Weather Event Page” that shows detailed precip maps, warning areas, etc. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/emer/emer.php
Nam makes me nervous!
This is one case where, amid all this talk of the low shifting north or south, it will have to make a HUGE shift to keep our area out of significant snow on the backside of the low. Not impossible, but increasingly unlikely by the minute, considering good model agreement.
In fact, a “shift” north could mean a longer duration of snow as the low takes a path closer to the coast and keeps us in the backside moisture longer.
Zach: Nervous? It’s snowing almost to Greensboro on that run.
Well I was reffering to CC – - as we are awfully close to that dry slot — I do expect a dry slot after about 6-7 hours . Happens almost everytime. Will be interesting to see if we get the deform zone. If not, we don’t get more than 6″. but something I’ve noticed with the trends in the models is they trend to swing thew deform band more NW-SE than just due East.
The Weather Channel just called out Roanoke by name and put us into the crosshairs to get 6 to 10 inches of snow. They seem confident enough that Mike Seidel is coming here to report as the snow falls. I’m keeping my fingers crossed. After the bust of this winter, it’ll be a nice signoff of winter as we head deeper into springtime.
Oh Zach. You need to relax man!
Very Amusing Quagmire! You’re not out here at the lake right around the corner from me are you?
What do YOU think about central VA’s chance of snow?
Quagmire,
SHA–snow haters anonymous? State highway administration? sacred heart academy? society for historical anachronism?
Misty: Last time Weather Channel came here on location was Dec 18-19, 2009. That worked out pretty good for snow lovers.
Zach…no worries
The NAM will do that. It doesn’t get any better than this. I remarked last night that the NAM was going to go back north a little.
FYI…I am updated my totals now and Hokieburg, Dopplerville, Hillsville are on my Alert status for over 12″ now! btw…ALL SNOW! No dry slots no mixing, no warm fuzzy nudges.
Be patient folks….working on updated snow totals
haha Brandon NAM is dangerously close to dry slotting me pretty good – - check the latest clown map !
Yep, 12z NAM put us back up to a foot on the snow map. Hmm.
First, here’s Nick Sayor’s Final Call you tube video just out! Good Stuff!
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=373404892689214&set=a.149931681703204.30660.148565461839826&type=1&theater
Nick’s website is http://www.stormtopia.com
Dave Tolleris is getting some much needed rest & will return back later this afternoon.
Kevin, It looks like Roanoke is now going to get more snow than we will up here in Cville, which is a flip flop from previous models. do you agree and/or do you think the Cville region still has a good shot at some solid snow?
Zach…look at the bigger picture, not the little things. 18Z NAM will show different picture…Must not fret over little things Grasshopper…
I am blogging from Belleville, PA while visiting my family here. The only snow in this snowless winter and I am not going to be home to see it. I now see Washington Co is under a WSW. Reminds me of the 01/98 storm which put our electricity our for one week. Guess when I get home Monday I will need to be prepared for whatever.
zach, where is the clown map? Thanks.
The Dr Saxx storm team has compiled all available data and came up with a very impressive storm accumulation number. Im predicting 6.5 inches for the low lying areas of the Roanoke Valley and Vinton. However my dog has been acting strange, so we may be in for upwards of 10 inches. The last time she acted like this we had a small earthquake. Unless i have a bunch of sheep running around in my backyard, were in for a fun snow filled Sunday.
Kevin, We are out of town in Philly visiting with family. We plan to return tomorrow at some point. What are your thoughts in regards to a safe return time? We are not traveling in a four-wheel drive vehicle, but most of our trip home will be on I-81. We only live about a mile or two off of the interstate in Salem. We keep checking your blog and reading the comments to try and decide what we should do
I’ve been trying to stay off this blog so I can get some chores done around the house LOL…so much for that. The hubby went and bought a new lawnmower battery this morning and serviced the mower and put the snow blade on. First time we have even thought about it this year. Sending the kids out to clean the backyard up this afternoon so that all the toys will be out of the way for sleigh riding.
12z GFS has around 7-9 for the Roanoke area.
Talk about a snow board reminded me to get mine outside in a dry cold place this evening. I use a 5 gal. metal bucket for several reasons. One is there’s no heat build-up. Another is with the bucket being 12/13″ in dia., you can tell what type of snow you’re dealing with. When the snow gwts deep enough to form a perfect cone on the top, you got a dry snow. When it builds up in a pan shape, you’re looking at a wet snow of around 10:1 ratio. Just a little trivia to give folks a chuckle instead of going ape.
And sit it on some bricks to keep ground heat from boogering your measurement.
All I have to say..is everybody (TWC, ACCU, KID FROM MASS, TOLLERIS) has the SAME MAP now with 6-12 for SW VA. BULLSEYE!!!!!!!!
Time to go look for a gallon of milk somewhere.
I just can’t understand where the calls for 12″+ are coming from when the Blacksburg NWS is still only showing around 3″ for most of their area..
If anybody decides they can’t do without ine of my ingenius, engineering marvels to measure their snow, feel free to contact me as I can put you one together pronto. And I’m running a weather bloggers special thru Sunday at 50% off due to it getting late in the season. I know, you say it might not measure more than 8″ or so, but after 8″ or so, it don’t make a heapa difference now do it?
Oh Captain – you are something else – a foot of snow for Dopplerville? LOL
Wes and Jonathan – Where are you in Floyd? Wes, I am guessing that you are a preacher, correct? I am out here near Sweet Providence, Terrys Fork and of course the Doppler Radar.
Ben – I liked your map link you posted.
So Mike S. from TWC is coming here, huh? Hey Kevin – might we get to see you on television? I think Mike S. needs to interview you.
“They seem confident enough that Mike Seidel is coming here to report as the snow falls”
This is all I need to know…. Aka it’s on!
Quag’s FIRST OFFICIAL CALL FOR PD3…Update for snowfall projections 11:30 AM Saturday
Here we go…The higher up you go in elevation, more snow.
Rain/Snow line shifts east & south & will set up initially from near Accomack on the eastern shore VA to Williamsburg to Emporia. The line will shift all the way to the Tidewater in the last 1/3 of the event. From Emporia, the line will go west southwest just south of Greensboro then I-40 all the way to Hendersonville, NC near Asheville.
Here’s the call:
West by God Virginny:
North of I-64 corridor (Snowshoe, Canaan points north) 8-12+” All snow heavy at times
I-64 corridor/I-77 corridor to Charleston & all of WV coalfields (Lewisburg, Beckley, Bluefield, Princeton, Logan, Williamson) 10-15”+ All snow heavy at times
NC
Blue Ridge Parkway corridor including Sparta, Mt. Airy, Boone, NC Ski Resorts & Wilkesboro above 2000’ 6-10” ALL SNOW, heavy at times. Below 2000’ rain to snow 4-6” with slight chance of sleet/snow mix.
From I-40 corridor north to VA/NC border from Burlington west to Asheville rain to snow with some periods of possible mix 2-5”+ above 1500’ with 1-4” below 1500’
South of I-40 corridor, I-77 west moderate to heavy rain to wet snow at end and/or mix 1-3” in northern locations. Raleigh all rain.
MD
I-70 corridor west of Baltimore to Frederick All snow 1-4”
West of Frederick, I-81 corridor west 2-4+” all snow
Again, Snow will get no farther north than MD/PA border
VA…
Tidewater, VA rain to snow at end 1-3” with higher amounts to north & west.
Eastern shore from Accomack north to New Kent to Emporia rain to wet snow, heavy at times at end 2-5”. This includes Northern Neck & Middle Peninsula
I-95 corridor from Emporia to Petersburg rain to snow 1-4” (south to north)
I-95 corridor from Richmond to Fredericksburg rain to snow, heavy at times 4-7”+ with higher amounts on west side of I-95 to US 15 (Amelia, Powhatan, Goochland, Ashland, Doswell). Richmond Metro 3-6”
I-95 corridor Fredericksburg to Southside Baltimore including NOVA/DC All snow 3-5”, heavy at times with higher amounts west of I-95.
West of US15 corridor from Louisa to VA State route 40 corridor including Louisa, Farmville, Blackstone
Rain to snow heavy at times 4-7”
Southside VA including Danville, South Boston, Chase City, Martinsville rain to snow, heavy at times 4-7”
I-81 corridor from Winchester to just north of Harrisonburg ALL SNOW, heavy at times 4-8”+
US 460 corridor from Farmville west to KY border including I-81 corridor from Harrisonburg south to Tri-Cities, TN/US 29 corridor from Culpepper south to Gretna. This also includes Staunton, Lexington, Lynchburg, Roanoke, NRV, Dopplerville, Hokieburg, Bonsack , SML, Charlottesville, Greene, Culpepper Shenandoah Valley , Wintergreen, Homestead, Covington, Hillsville, Marion, Abingdon, Norton, Grundy, Tazewell & Wytheville…ALL SNOW, heavy at times 8-12”+ with higher amounts locally up to 15” for I-81 corridor Lynchburg, Roanoke, NRV, Dopplerville & ZACH!!! NO DRY SLOT NO MIX
US 29 corridor north of Culpepper to NOVA/DC ALL SNOW 2-54 east to I-95 with 4- 7”+ US29 to I-81. Skyline Drive and elevations above 1500’ could easily see 6-10”+ with heavy snow from Culpepper south.
Next Updates will be after 4 PM
Also…
The storm has slowed down with first flakes arriving in SW VA after 3 AM Sunday. Estimate 3AM for NRV. 4 AM Roanoke and later points east & north.
The storm will last thru Monday mid day now. Will pin point this better after 4 PM.
Jenn…I would strongly recommend hitting the road either tonight or leave before 5 in the morning. Roads will be wet but will get worse as the afternoon goes on.
OK, I’m convinced; but, it still seems strange to be putting snow plows on, loading salt and mixing brine in 55-degree weather…
Oh the weather outside is delightful,
But the sun is shining brightly,
And since we’ve got places to go,
Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow!
It doesn’t show signs of starting,
And I’ve bought some bulbs for planting,
The temperature is really rising,
Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow!
See? Therapy works! I feel just fine …
Bee-u-ti-ful afternoon here. Slight breeze that has veered more southerly-easterly. High cirrus clouds running across the sky. But it’s got that funny stillness (even though the birds are chirping and the chickens are talking). If it wasn’t for that funny stillness, I’d find it hard to believe it’s going to snow tomorrow. Gonna enjoy the sunshine today so I can enjoy the snow tomorrow!
I can’t believe how warm it feels outside (in Radford). If I didn’t watch the weather and read this blog, and someone on the street today told me we might get 6 inches Sunday or Monday, I’d think him looney.
Does anyone know how much Goodview is suppose to get?
Nice day out so far!Its up to 50 already.I`m leaving for Charles Town W Va. in a while to go play the slots.Maybe I`ll get lucky and finally win for once.Looks like Northern Fauquier might miss out on this one!Have a good day all.
Mayor Doppler Carol is going absolutely bananas here in Dopplerville! Her snow withdrawal symptoms are beginning to lessen as the numerous blog reports come in featuring this upcoming snow-nami. The snow shovel is greased, the boots polished, and her winter coat are waiting by the door. If only now she would stay off the computer/blog long enough for me to check my email. I must say she loves you blogging beasts right now. She even has a small statue of a snowman with Kevin’s picture taped to the front of it!
So we have little to fear if a slight north or south trend occurs with the 18z/0z runs?
If I recall it’s cooler now then it was Friday at noon, but I may be wrong. FYI Target has all of there snow removal tools, toys, shovels, and salt 70% off. Grab a 1.50 sled for my son just in case.
Welcome to sky watching!
Quagmire-If you are correct (up to 15″ in the NRV), this will be the 4th Largest Snowstorm in the past 20 years for Blacksburg! Surpassed only by March 93, January 96, and January 98. This is HISTORIC! Also, do I understand that you think it will be snowing in the NRV from 3am Sunday until 3pm Monday (mid-day Monday you said). That would be 36 hours of snowfall! If that happens we will be getting more like 2 FEET! Am I crazy, or is this possible? Please advise.
From Henry M Blog this morning: “Roanoke is the place to be in regards to a big snowstorm. Looks like 6 inches or more in that area.” Worried about the temp, but if it keeps in the low 50′s mid 50′s and the Snow moves in early Sunday Morning the 6+ amounts may happen.
Enjoyed some time at the park on this mild day with my son.
I will be out with family this afternoon, and not on the blog much. Will be on a lot tonight and Sunday.
Quickly blanket statement addressing anyone asking about travel concerns: Earlier is better on Sunday. This appears to be more of an afternoon/evening event. Some places may get snow in the morning but it will take time to stick on pavement absorbing today’s 60-degree sunshine. But beware that it could snow for hours and not stick on the roads, and then heavy bands develop and turn everything white in 15 minutes. That probably doesn’t happen til late afternoon or evening in most lower elevations. I-77 over Fancy Gap and I-81 over what’s known as Christiansburg Mountain are often among the first interstates to experience travel problems during a winter weather event, so beware.
Out till about 4 or so. Will post a new entry then. Enjoy your springlike afternoon!
guys I’m in vinton and my window is down. The sun is warm. I don’t see how there is gonna be any major accumulating snow. Let’s hope the clouds start rolling in soon
Yes!!!! DT said the models have shifted the heavier snow back up to northern va!
… but they haven’t shifted them away from SW Va — stretching it out SW to NE … typical Miller A coastal storm.
Back at 4 …
Thomas – I’m in Goodview. While there is no Winter Storm Watch for our county, I still see us getting at least 4 inches out of this (unless of course every model is wrong…let’s hope not). Currently 59.4 here.
Thanks, KM, for the advisory on road conditions. Planning on getting out of DC by about 10am to drive back to Lex before the worst of this hits.
KRIS at 12:54pm – the worst thing we can hope for is the clouds to roll in soon. We want it to be clear through midnight tonight to allow for optimal radiational cooling. It really does not matter how warm it gets today. Remember how warm it was on March 12, 1993????
My hubby is outside helping our neighbor get his snow blower tuned up and running good in anticipation. He’s finally on board
No consensus at ALL for Lynchburg.. All over the place.
WDBJ- 1-3″
NWS- 1-4″
WSLS 2-4″
ACCU- 3″
WSET 3-6″
TWC 4-8″
NWS is very predictable for Lynchburg unless it’s set in stone for a major snow. I guarantee they will put Lynchburg under a Winter Weather Advisory for 2-4 inches of snow, with Warnings everywhere else, and then only upgrade to a Warning if they feel it’s necessary tomorrow evening at the last minute. It has happened a million times..
My blog update== My have to massage this map a little, but overall I like it.
http://lynchburgweather.blogspot.com
Thomas & Brian in Goodview…
Goodview/SML is included in the 8-12″ or more range.
FYI, Sunny 60 degrees here in eastern Goochland Co. at 2:50 PM
Update later on around 5ish.
Went to buy a snow shovel (honest to goodness didn’t own one) and they said I was the only person who had asked for one today. Can’t decide what kind of omen that is for tomorrow…haha.
61 and mostly cloudy in Radford… there is still a little pessimism in me regarding cooling.
Shhh – don’t let the Man of the House (aka Igor) know that I am on the computer checking the blog. I just wanted to let you know that around 2:30 this afternoon it was 61 F in my back yard. Plus the sky looks like snow – it just has that look about it even though it is warmish. It is very quiet out there too. I have my board in the back yard ready for measurement and even pulled the sleds off the rafters of the barn. Ooops- he is back inside – have to go.
Q99 just said “looks like rain will be more of a factor tomorrow than snow.”. WHAT are they talking about??
Well Roanoke is making the big time with this storm. I just heard on the weather channel that Mike Seidel will be on location in Roanoke tomorrow.
Already snowing here, that is what the kids were saying as they threw the soap suds up in the air. We were outside in shorts and t-shirts washing the car, it will be interesting to see how tomorrow plays out.
Uhm, LOL at NWS.. There are Winter Storm Watches now West, North, East, and South of me, but I don’t have one at all..
Looks like 63 was the high and that happened as some cloud cover came over. Right now overcast, but the temp has dropped 2 degrees (all this via my thermometer) to 61 in just an hour. The 60′s + cloud cover has be worried just a bit, but I think we can get past it.
Of course as soon as I type that the wind comes up out of the NW and the temp starts to drop…
Igor, your ole lady was playing on the computer again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
So NWS updated Lynchburg to 2-4 inches.. how does Richmond, and even southern Virginia have a Watch for 3-6 inches, but I get less? It makes no sense to me.
@ #120 Jennifer…
That’s not a shock with the locals they wont play up any real accumulation until the real now casting starts. Honestly a lot of people (aka not weather people) aren’t buying it. I was at Target and grabbed a new, nice heavy duty shovel, and another guy asked me if I was crazy because it was “darn near 60 outside”. Just look at “10″ and “7″ both are on the 2-5 and “10″ is getting elevation specific saying below 1000′ would see 1-2. Both are saying that the rain wont switch till later keeping the accumulation down.
OK, snowblower works, hope that doesn’t mean we just jinxed it for us in Blacksburg
MAJOR UPDATE: The latest HPC Snowfall Probability Map has NRV and RNK in the slight probability of 12″+ for Sunday. Earlier this morning, they had NO ONE in the 12″+ probability. We only need 15″ in Blacksburg to make it the 4th largest snowstorm in the past 20 years!
I bet I-81 west and north of Roanoke look great in the beginning and take a quick turn for the worst around lunch Sunday and probably strand motorists. All it takes is one wreck.
Jennifer,
You didn’t know Q99 has the brightest meteorological minds east of the Mississippi?
Geez…I had a long bit written…and CAPTCHA killed my
creativity..
I witnessed the Mar 1962 storm from Nelson County
trying to get back home to Rocky Mount with little success.
We got stranded in a snow bank..someone saved us.
Dont u mentalists try to slow this thing down!!
,,but enjoy the similarities.
http://www.glenallenweather.com/links/digest/greatestsnow.htm
Looks like NWS-Bburg hasn’t finished its afternoon forecast/advisory/discussion package, not unusual when there is an event like htis, considering the coordination calls and such with the national level folks at HPC and other weather service offices.
I will issue a quick update to this entry when that is finished and then work on a new blog entry within the next 30-90 minutes or so. Lots to digest, and I’m also juggling my regular Roanoke Times office work.
who do we write to to make your “regular Roanoke Times office work” go away for the next 48 hours? The RT readers demand Kevin Myatt blog attention, not paperwork for him!!!
I’m off at midnight and home 500 feet higher to watch the storm for the weekend.
They treat me well here.
Winter Storm Warnings just posted on the weather channel
Just updated to a winter storm warning here in Woodlawn. High today was 58 at 3pm,now down (funny) to 54 at 4:45. Still saying 4-8″ here so we shall see…
I’m getting frustrated by them only forecasting a Winter Weather Advisory in Lynchburg :/
Winter Weather Warning expanded eastward. Guess I definitely will be plowing tomorrow…
Heading out to haul in more wood.
Bedford county now under a winter storm warning.
No wonder everyone’s so fascinated with weather. I still cannot get my brain wrapped around the fact it was in the 60′s today with the potential for that much snow tomorrow. It is time for a storm to “over-deliver” on the hype to make up for our pathetic winter so far. Only my golf game has appreciated this winter’s weather.
Take that, Sam Oakey!
Speaking of Golf. I got to hit some golf balls today and I get to throw some snowballs tomorrow talk about a weird weekend.
Kinda like living in Denver, Lee.
Rick, comment 11, ….. ask Kevin!! No predictions from me, beyond what I stated last night (I bet I have 3 different depths of snow, deepest on lawn and back wooden steps, intermediate on driveway and front walk, least amount in the street in front of my house). By the way, Ricko, how deep does the snow need to be to make plowing worthwhile? 3 inches? 4? On the other hand, if you were teasing me and basically asking whether I think that you guys in Wville will get measurable snow …. absolutely!! We reached 63* at my postal zip code as I was getting ready to leave the building. Sun stayed out until slightly after 3 PM. I bet it did not get within 5 degrees of that where you are, partially because I bet you clouded up much earlier today.
I’m reading the blog about all this nice weather in NRV and it is POURING rain down here at Auburn U in ‘Bama, under a flood watch. Looks like my students and I are in for an interesting drive home Sunday. We are leaving at 5:30 AM and gain an hour once we cross the border. Some VA schools (JMU, VCU) are leaving tonight but they have further to go. I will try to report in Sunday has we head north.
wd, thanks for your thoughts about the roads and snow. It has been my experience that the tires on those big rigs create a lot more heat than the tires of passenger cars, especially sedans. So that is why I theorized that having a lot of big rigs on I-81 would keep that highway in wetter condition than any secondary road in the same area. When I have driven on snowy roads, the right lane tends to be in MUCH wetter condition from having all the big rigs over there. But you raised an excellent point about the wind created by the big guys, too. Also the slush at stop signs and traffic lights. I agree with that observation 100%.
Stupid bit of trivia that I intended to post this morn, but did not have time. Normal high temp at ROA edged up to 50 yesterday, and the normal low edged up to 30 a day or two before that. I think we get 11 hours of daylight on Monday, too. Getting closer to spring all the time now, even though it certainly won’t look like it by very late tomorrow afternoon. Hey, one more thing. Good luck to all you snow lovers. If this one had busted (it won’t), I would have posted a flood alert …… for all the tears from many of you. Some of you NEED this snow …… right gals??!?!!!
As someone who intentionally drives VT students around and sometimes into bad weather every year (storm chase) — be careful, HokieTrax!
Quick tidbits on PD3 before my official update:
Here’s the SE region radar. There’s your storm.
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly_loop.php
Gulf Coast is getting pounded now with heavy rains, severe thunderstorms & possible tornadoes.
Judging from the aviation pilot reports from http://www.aviationweather.gov
the upper Jetstream wind pattern has become sheared or changing direction from due west to a southwest to northeast direction just as forecast. This shearing makes for a very rough ride in the sky above say 20000’. There was one report at 1:54 PM this afternoon from a Boeing 777 in the Glade Springs, Va area of severe wind shear & severe turbulence. A 777 is a big plane & it takes alot to rock that boat. All of the PIREPS so far indicate at least moderate turbulence from 20000’ up. Reports like these are an indication of both the northern & southern jetstreams maybe starting to phase.
Also, let me correct myself on the estimated start times for the precipitation (both rain and/or snow).
Asheville…rain starts after 7:00 PM tonight changes to mix then snow after Noon Sunday
Tri-Cities, TN around 3:00 AM Sunday starts as rain then all snow around Noon Sunday
Blacksburg – Bluefield, VW/WV around 5:00 AM Sunday starts as mix then all snow by 9:00 AM
Roanoke – Lynchburg -Winston-Salem, NC around 7:00 AM Sunday starts as mix then all snow by 10:00 – 11:00 AM
Charlottesville around 11:00 AM Sunday all snow
Richmond around 9:00 AM Sunday starts as rain then changes to snow later in the day after 5 PM.
Also note that the precip at the start will start as rain or a mix in some areas but will gradually turn to all snow by Noon Sunday for areas west of the US 29 corridor. The heavier snow will start to fall later in the afternoon.
Quote of the day so far…”Honey, there is no *&^%#*%# way it is going to snow, It’s 60 outside!” –Mrs. Q.
Kevin or Quags – would it benefit us at all to leave tonight from Auburn? If we leave at 5:30 AM (6:30 EST), we would get in about 3 PM EST. I’m not sure if there is an advantage to leaving tonight and not getting any sleep. I won’t sleep with a student driver at the wheel either.
Country gal Carol, you are welcome!! About my snow measurement advice. Hope it works well for you.
HokieTrax: Snow is looking to arrive earlier on Sunday. Quag’s 5:21 comment is pretty close to the start times I would recommend (I might go a couple of hours later, but start times and changeover times are almost never handled very precisely by models or forecasters anyway, so it’s sort of picking hairs at that point). I can’t really recommend you do anything, but be aware that you will probably be driving through some substantial snow on the last leg of your journey if you arrive at 3 p.m.
Trevar, a super comment about 8 AM by you!!! LOL LOL I have referred to any family that has 3 kids of age 5 and under (age 5 includes a child who is almost 6) as having “The Family Circus” {remember the comic strip?} while that situation is in effect. Only one of my two sisters had that, but the funniest situation that ever happened with them happened when the oldest was about 5 and 1/2, and the youngest was not quite 6 months. Sounds like your family has had that perhaps continually since the 3rd eldest was born …. :>) :>) :>) If we ever have a get-together, I would love to retell that tale. I still get a smile now thinking about it. Happened Labor Day weekend in 1984, up in Ipswich, MA.
HokieTrax, might make sense to just spend another night. I know what it’s like traveling with students, and I don’t know what you’ve been allotted any contingency expenses, but your two options (driving without sleep, driving into snow) don’t really seem too safe.
If we lived in Vegas…people would place bets on start time of the snow, how much snow would fall, which town would get the most, and which would get the least. But I’d never recommend that….never…not me…now, where did I put that phone number…..
Here’s my idea for measuring snow…..
My ducks have a 150 gallon tub pool that is totally empty right now and slightly elevated from the ground. Think that’d work? Let it fall in there and then measure from the middle?
Up here we are working on installing some fencing this afternoon and it has quickly become gray and the air has a snow-like quality to it….very odd considering the warmth today. For the record, I’m in Floyd.
I got married February 27, 1982. It was 73 degrees on the 24th, 53 on the 25th and snowed like #)$I on the 26th. Officially, 11 inches. My dad measured 16 inches as he shoveled snow from the church parking lot to the front door so the wedding could go on. I totally buy that it can be 61 degrees now, snow like crazy tomorrow, and be a decent-sized amount on the ground.
Thanks Kevin. So leaving earlier, say 3 AM or 4 AM EST may be better? That would make possible arrival time 12 or 1 PM.
HokieTrax…
a much earlier departure may be your better bet. You’ll drive in rain on I-85 all the way up to Charlotte. After Charlotte on I-77, you should be OK until you get north of Statesville. I would imagine once you get to Fancy Gap is where all h*ll breaks loose after 7AM all the way up to Hokieburg.
Check the VDOT website if you can before leaving or if any of those savvy students have a smart phone, pull up the VDOT road conditions.
Deb, comment 59. Does your Kroger plan on staffing the bread and milk aisles with “anti-ransacking” security guards?? That was what the grocery store I went to after a day of delivering mail in Dec. 97 or so looked like, when there was 2 inches of snow in the forecast for Roanoke city. But that was only two years after the “RRID” forecast ….. Robin Reed Infamous “Dusting” forecast.
Doug: You mentioned my plow blade again, so I just have to list my new song. Do you think Elton John will mind that I borrowed his 1973 hit, “Goodbye Yellowbrick Road”?
When was I gonna come down?
When was I going to land?
I should have given up on the warm.
I should have listened to the snowman.
You knew I couldn’t hold on forever.
I didn’t sign up for true.
I’m not a snow hater for bloggers to beat up.
This guy’s too straight to be singing the blues.
So goodbye unsalted road
Where snow haters of society howl.
You can’t keep me in your greenhouse.
I’m going back to my snow plow.
Back to the howling cold wind in the woods
Blowing the toll road closed.
Oh, I’ve finally decided my future lies
Beyond the unsalted road.
Quags, comment 61. Congrats on the good sleep …. wish I could have had one. I stayed up too late here (IT WAS FUN!!) and then had to awaken at my usual 5:34 AM. BTW, you mentioned that this superblog was voted best blog by the “SHA.” What does SHA stand for? In advance, thanks.
Mr. Griggs, there’s a saying about where the rubber meets the road. And anytime you have 18 wheels on a rig weighing 50,000# plus, yes, you create friction and heat. In my years of plowing snow on the Interstate system, we never found it helped, only slushed, packed and froze it more. Plows can do only so much, like keep the buildup down and cut the snow to the shoulder. But if it snows hard enough, the normal circuit of a plow truck won’t allow him to get back to point A before it gets ahead of them. Chemicals applied during the height of the storm are normally plowed off before they do their job so aren’t an option. Like I said, sometimes it’s a crap shoot.
As usual, much will be determined by whether the air is cold enough to give us a good snow and not just mixed precipitation here in the Valley. Hoping for a good one, around 8 inches. A good possibility.
SHA…Snow Hecklers of America
Hey, HokieTrax gal, have you considered traveling via Tennessee instead of through NC? At least you would avoid Fancy Gap. And I think you would be away from the heaviest snow bands, but I have not looked at the forecast for the eastern Tenn. corridor between Chattanooga and Bristol. It might add hours (1 or 2?) to your drive, but if the weather would be much tamer there, I would look into that. From Fort Chiswell northeastward on I-81 it would be the same either way.
Let me add Mr. Griggs that I liked your comments on the subject. Thanks.
Quags, What website can I go to in order to get detailed turbulence reports? You mentioned the 777 earlier experiencing severe turbulence; is that specific info located somewhere on the aviation weather website? I’m a student pilot and would love any aviation info I can get my hands on. Thanks!
Great comment, wd. You have all the experience in that dept. I was thinking of the driving conditions while the snow was falling, not afterwards, or even after it had begun to pile up. I drove down through Pennsylvania in early March about 10 years ago, from Scranton/Wilkes Barre past Hazleton and that next 60-mile stretch down to the jct. with I-78 was really something. Wet snow and it was 3 inches deep, perhaps even 4 in a couple of spots. I was thankful for being able to follow a huge truck through the worst section, but then he really slowed down and I decided to take my chances. Luckily conditions improved after another 15 miles. I never would have attempted it if I hadn’t years of experience driving in that stuff. If I needed to slow down quickly, there was no way I was gonna hit the brakes. Would have downshifted.
Mike Seidel from The Weather Channel is already on his way to Roanoke.
You are welcome, wd, and thank you.
I have been reading this blog for three years and never posted before now. I love it and enjoy the cast of characters who post regularly. Thanks, Kevin! I love snow and the only other creature on this planet who loves it more is my dog. He is old now and I have been in despair this winter that he might not have a snow to play in. I can’t wait for tomorrow, even though I will have to wait til afternoon as my house is at a low elevation (1026) in Roanoke. It is hard to believe as it was so warm today! I drove to Galax and back today and it was a lovely day for a drive. I thought of you Clarkdocvet as I drove past the Galax Veterinary Clinic. I hope you get the snow you want.
Just put up new post, finally.
Actually, Mike Seidel has already arrived in Roanoke. Will begin broadcasting at 7 a.m.
Doug, comment #162, I’d be surprised if there were ANY milk or bread left by the time I get in tomorrow morning at 8:30. Bottled water also.
It never ceases to amaze me that folks will by 3-4 gallons of milk and 5-6 loaves of bread at the first mention of snow.
Which brings up a thought. When I volunteered to work the snow wasn’t expected to hit until later. Now it appears it’s coming sooner. I work in Christiansburg and live in Radford. How much of a pain is it going to be getting home at 12:30 in the afternoon? I travel Rt11. 114 scares me in snow, too many drop offs.:-)
Oh sweet! Look forward to seeing that!
Thanks Kevin and everyone else who posts on this blog. I’ve been reading it for years and have gotten my boyfriend hooked on it as well. Question, what are you thinking as far as the duration of this storm? I see the Winter Storm Warning expires at 6am Monday morning, do you think the storm will be over by then? Keeping my fingers crossed that this will be the BIG ONE (aka ONLY ONE) of 2012!
KM, when you get off, go home and crawl in the bed and don’t worry about this bunch. Sleep in. You know what, the world will still go on without you holding our hands. Anyway, tomorrow is look out the window day. You got us this far, we’ll get the rest of the way til later in the AM by ourselves. Take a break. And don’t be concerned about approving the 100 + posts that will come in while you’re sleeping. Jest killem. If’s it’s that important, whatsa wanta bet the poster will put it back up. I’m referring to my drivel only.
It looks like the snow is a done deal, I think all the snow lovers should say thank you loard!