2012.02.03
UPDATE 12 MIDNIGHT 2/3: Damp chill to invade weekend; minor ice/snow chance likely staying well north
UPDATE 8:40 AM, 2/4: As National Weather Service radar (linked here) shows, showers are already moving into parts of Southwest Virginia this morning. Area that get showers today may be held well below projected highs in the upper 40s and low 50s, so chilly dampness may set in early for many. END UPDATE
UPDATE MIDNIGHT 2/3: No major changes in the below. It does appear the frozen precipitation is likely to stay north of I-64 — likely well north of I-64 — with any minor chance of snowflakes or freezing drizzle coming Sunday as the precipitation is ending. No big wintry deal from this one — par for the course this winter. END UPDATE
I could wake a lot of folks out of a mid-winter slumber with this headline: “PLAINS BLIZZARD HEADED FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.” And it would be accurate … sort of. The strong upper-air disturbance responsible for the blizzard burying Denver and points east is headed our general direction this weekend, but alas, it will not be as potent or as moist when it arrives here, nor will it be entering the deep cold air it is ingesting in the Plains states. But that said — this system will encounter some cold air building southward this weekend. A disturbance diving out of the Great Lakes will pull some cold air down behind it, and a weak wedge or cold-air damming effect will bank that cold air against the mountains as it spreads southward. It may become cold enough for some freezing drizzle, sleet or even snow for a time Saturday night and early Sunday over much of the northern half of Virginia (I-64 and north in western Virginia), with some chance it works a little farther south than that into our region (the NAM model for Sunday morning, inset at left, shows the freezing line at roughly a mile up splitting our region). It’s reminscent of the setup two weeks ago that led to patchy ice over a weekend of chilly dampness. Moisture will likely be limited, though, as the Great Lakes disturbance works to weaken the system coming out of the Plains. At the least, it’s going to make for a raw weekend, with off and on showers, some fog and low clouds, and temperatures hanging in the 30s and 40s.
Friday will be another relatively mild day, with highs well into the 50s (wouldn’t be surprised to see a few readings in the 60s for Roanoke south and east) and even Saturday during the daytime won’t be that cold, possibly some 50s again before the rain arrives and the wedge of colder air sets in late in the day.
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Gosh, I just looked at the NAO GFS outlooks page, and that page is STILL showing the NAO to remain in positive territory for the next two weeks. Then I looked back in time, and on the “observed” graph, it has not gone negative at ANY time in the last 4 months, except for an odd day or two back in October!! I would love to hear your feelings about it (the future direction of NAO), but I think a big change with a big drop into negative territory is not only long overdue, but will happen at some point in the next 8 weeks. If it happens by Feb 14 or even a few days later, there is a chance for 1 or two snowstorms. If in early March, definitely some killing frosts and freezes, perhaps one snowstorm.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 3, 2012 @ 12:25 am
0z NAM brings heavier precip into Virginia with the 850 freezing line to the Virginia/North Carolina border. Interesting.
Comment by Alex — February 3, 2012 @ 4:08 am
*Sorry, I meant 06z NAM
Comment by Alex — February 3, 2012 @ 4:08 am
Here’s a link to Hour 60 of the NAM.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F03%2F2012+06UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=060&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M
Comment by Alex — February 3, 2012 @ 5:37 am
I think we need to put to bed any talk of an arctic front arriving on Tues night/ Weds morning. Once again, what looked pretty good for snow lovers a few days ago, is disappearing like an elusive mirage as we get closer. Snowstorm discussion for Feb. 10-11 also should probably be dropped. Quagmire – would you please stick a fork in this winter already? Snow lovers can’t take any more of your roller coaster ride.
Comment by Blacksburg Mike — February 3, 2012 @ 6:27 am
DT has Greene in 1 to 2 inches! None of our weather stations call for this. Where is he getting this?
Comment by jared french — February 3, 2012 @ 7:36 am
BBurg Mike
(1) There is DEFINITELY an Arctic front still depicted to move through Tuesday night-Wednesday morning. However, the air mass may be modified quite a bit so that it’s not as sharp a drop in temperature as expected earlier. That doesn’t change the source region of the air — it’s from the Arctic. It probably won’t be the “sharp” Arctic front we thought a couple of days ago, but it meets the definition. I wouldn’t be surprised if the needle moved a little downward again on temperatures next week.
(2) Still strong indications of having a low form in or near the Gulf of Mexico in the Feb. 9-12 time frame, and the possibility of two different pieces of energy north and south “phasing.” There are a number of different scenarios for what that will do, many of which would not be cold enough or wet enough to mean much for us in terms of snow (or even rain). But some plausible scenarios remain interesting. If it does take the “Miller A” route up the coast it will probably be able to tap some cold air to the north and cause a winter storm for much of the East, maybe even our region, regardless of whatever any forecasting service has temperatures in that time period. IF IF IF IF.
Feb. 9-12 is the region’s BEST SHOT at a significant winter storm since late October narrowly missed. Right now, of course, I’m leaning against it simply because there are more scenarios that don’t yield a winter storm than do, for Southwest Virginia, specifically.
I’m also letting that sit on the backburner and keeping an eye on the weekend for marginal/minimal wintry precipitation possibilities (which I think will stay north of us in SW Va).
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 3, 2012 @ 9:13 am
Jared…
DT puts all model data & analysis into 1 neat package & blammo! He turns model data in Meteorology. He’s a very realistic Met. He uses all available data when making up his forecasts just as the NWS does. But in Dave’s case, being an independent Meteorologist allows him to say & do things where the NWS restricts themselves with its own policy. NWS will always take the conservative side & lay low until the real picture becomes much clearer at T-48 hours to any event. DT does about the same except he will tell you right out that something may or may not occur 10-15 days down the road. I had the privilege of sitting in on one of his world famous seminars awhile back. I learned more from him than anywhere else in the universe during that 4 hour lesson.
Hokieburg Mike…
NO! I refuse to lose! As in the Wizard of OZ, “Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!” aka the models. Don’t let the individual model runs bum you out. Ignore them. Watch the trend. Let me give next week’s storm as an example. For almost a week now, the model consensus has shown 2 events. The first one for this weekend, a weaker system which is coming together nicely but not as first depicted. But it’s there. Event #2 is still there. It is still a threat. Yes the data has changed and it may be weaker but it is still there. Several things have to happen for event #2 to bring something. Models will always give you a roller coaster ride. It just depends on how you ride it. Either arms up in the air & enjoy it (Meteorology)or grab that hand rail like there is no tomorrow (Model Hugging).
Come back after 11:30 AM and I’ll explain some more when the 12Z GFS comes out.
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 3, 2012 @ 9:21 am
Well, at least I had been planning on working inside tomorrow to prepare for Sunday, since the NFL seems to keep a tight lid on the use of the ‘game’ I will do my best to not get our humble blogmaster in trouble over a trademark infringement. And then of course on Sunday, I’ve got league bowling that got moved to early afternoon (because of the ‘game’…we normally bowl at 6), and then I’ve got to rush back home and make some hot wings, salsa, sausage balls, and other tasty game-time foods. This will be the first time we’ve watched it in HD…looking forward to it. The weather? Not so much…
I’m not sure I’ve had a winter quite like this since moving to the region. But it definitely does remind me of winters back in Virginia Beach. Warmer, fair amounts of rain, only some spotty snow and a lot of focus on where the rain/snow line might set up, which was usually a good 20-30 miles to our west, near Suffolk.
Comment by Other John — February 3, 2012 @ 9:38 am
06z and 12z NAM show 850′s below freezing, and a second batch of moisture.
What do you think of that?
Comment by Alex — February 3, 2012 @ 9:47 am
Back to this weekend:
Jared, 1-2 inches is within the realm of possibility for you up in Greene County.
Down this way, I’m leaning against significant winter precipitation for a couple of reason:
(1) Too much near-surface warmth to overcome. If we were in a more typically cold late Jan/early Feb period, it would be different. But it’s more like mid-late March, and even if the atmosphere is cold enough from a mile up for wintry precipitation, I think it will have a hard time cooling the layer of the air near the surface. If precipitation is a little heavier than expected while it’s cold, dynamic cooling might overcome that.
(2) No really strong high pressure to the north to induce more cold-air damming. That was depicted on the models for this weekend about a week ago. But it’s not verifying.
(3) There has been a tendency on the GFS and Euro to bump the Plains storm a little northward as it moves east. That would probably bump the freezing line farther north.
I think there might be some freezing drizzle or flakes at the end of the precipitation in locations around here that are typically colder, especially NORTH of Roanoke. The margin is close, though, so we’ll keep an eye on it.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 3, 2012 @ 9:52 am
I would not be surprised to see flakes north of 460 this weekend, but you’ll have to go north of I-64 for accumlation. 12z NAM shows this pretty well.
I think DT has the right idea, but his “no snow” line is way too far south. He says it will be crushed, but the models seem to be shifting against his idea. But hey, it’s hard to predict, especially this winter!
If you want snow here, you want this thing getting crushed to the south as much as possible. Even if that were to happen, I don’t see accumulation as a possibility.
Keep eyes on next weekend, though many questions still remain regarding that. I like DT’s analysis of that what has to happen for it to come true.
Comment by ice storm lover — February 3, 2012 @ 9:56 am
Alex: If we are to get significant wintry precipitation this weekend, it would need to be the scenario you described, with a secondary disturbance (vort max in met lingo) trailing the first when it’s colder. It is something to watch, as it has been depicted on some modeling. Would like to see more model agreement on it. The NAM has often proven to be a little too cold throughout this season, so that’s something to keep in mind.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 3, 2012 @ 9:57 am
Alex,
I see what the NAM is depicting for a possible 2nd slug of moisture in the colder sector of air. I’m not really jumping up & down over it either. It is quite possible. If the 12Z GFS & 18Z NAM hold on to it, then it could bring the snow line farther south & there could be more precip. COULD & IF!!! Remember, we are still about 54 hours out.
Also bear in mind, that while it may bring the snow a little farther south, this could be more of a sleet/rain situation depending upon the timing of the cold air arrival at the surface. Speaking of surface, the ground temps are well above freezing and not much will stick if it does.
Let’s see what the 12Z models have to say. I’m not a big fan of the NAM this far out.
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 3, 2012 @ 10:05 am
DT has now uped our chances to 1 to 3 inches now! Has the weekend storm become more enhanced or is it because we are just getting closer to the storms arrival and things are becoming more clear? Still no winter advisories or warnings posted. I still think its funny none of the local stations are mentioning this, and have the temps in the 50s!
Comment by jared french — February 3, 2012 @ 11:09 am
Jared: If it’s timed right you could have highs in the 50s both Saturday AND Sunday and still get a little snow Sunday morning. (Before you laugh, that very thing happened here in Roanoke on March 11, 2005 — 51 degrees on March 10, 2.6 inches of snow early on March 11 from a small but intense clipper-like disturbance, then 57 degrees by afternoon on March 11 — snow was all gone by about 11 a.m.)
More likely, though, if you remember a couple of weekends ago when you got that little crust of sleet/snow (and we had spotty ice down here), the temperature forecasts started declining once forecast offices became more sure of the damming effect. It’s not quite the same this time, but I would expect temperature forecasts for the weekend to start declining.
I think 1-3 is possible up your way in Greene County. Some questions though about temperatures in the surface layer of air, and of course, about ground temps.
Snow lovers are going to be bummed down here if Tolleris is right and Richmond and Norfolk get a little snow and Roanoke/Blacksburg doesn’t!
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 3, 2012 @ 11:20 am
12z GFS shows the massive storm NEXT WEEKEND, but there’s a cutoff low in Ontario. If that moves out the way, then we could be in business. Otherwise, just a typical rainstorm.
Comment by ice storm lover — February 3, 2012 @ 11:50 am
12Z GFS & NAM update for the weekend.
12Z updates shift the precip shield north. Somebody said something to the affect that he thought the rain/snow no snow line was a little far south. Could that somebody have a Barry Gibb falsetto southern accent?
Some forecasters are going nuts with the sky is falling chicken little reaction with this north shift. Long story short, this runs confirms what Kevin (perhaps me too) that rain/snow line will be north of I-64.
Alex & Mike, 12Z NAM has more precip & ends up colder towards the end of this event which is when the snow/sleet will fall anyway. GFS says low level/surface temps stay warm. Ensembles will be out shortly.
12Z NAM loop from Allan Huffman:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znamPMSLthickNAMLoop.html
12Z NAM snowfall loop from Allan Huffman:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znamsnow_NELoop.html
12Z GFS loop from Mr. Huffman:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06GFSLoop.html
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 3, 2012 @ 12:11 pm
Also threat #2 for next weekend is still on the 12Z GFS. It’s warmer and depicts a more significant wrap around event for say Appalachians north of I-64 aka Snowshoe could get over a foot+
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 3, 2012 @ 12:19 pm
I’m still leaning rain, I just haven’t had much of a good feeling about this winter the longer it’s gone on. I hope we do see some accumulating snow this month, but the pessimist in me is winning out…
Comment by Other John — February 3, 2012 @ 12:25 pm
I tried to find snow maps showing the accumulated snowfall for the year so far…didn’t find those, but I found these 2 gems from the fine weather forecasters up the road at Accuweather, once again displaying their stellar prognisticating abilities…
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathercom-winter-20112012/55890
About the only thing I think they got right was the PNW having frequent storms.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/more-monster-snowstorms-for-th/55833
That one makes me just laugh, because it’s been so horribly wrong. Perhaps just like the hurricane forecasters are no longer issuing forecasts so far in advance because they’ve more often than not been so horribly wrong, people would stop making long-range forecasts 2-3 months out when they’re not even remotely close to being right. Just a thought.
I believe I could develop a pretty similar forecast with pretty similar accuracy levels by throwing darts, or laying out a grid in a cowfield.
Comment by Other John — February 3, 2012 @ 12:42 pm
All this talk about snow this weekend and then next week – what about today? It is an awesome day out there! Sunny, blue skies and light wind. If we can’t have then snow this is the second best kind of day to have.
Back out to enjoy this gorgeous day -
Comment by Doppler Carol — February 3, 2012 @ 12:47 pm
Just looking at the weather… just hard seeing much of anything when the highs are listed in the 50s. I see there is something around the 14-16th rang but like everyone else…. I don’t see us getting anything this year. The track just isn’t in our direction.
Comment by britten olinger — February 3, 2012 @ 1:13 pm
Having trouble approving comments remotely this afternoon. Will get your afternoon comments posted later. But, if anybody asks, I did see the 12z NAM with snow on us Sunday night.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 3, 2012 @ 2:05 pm
I keep seeing the line that temperatures are listed in the 50s 1-2 weeks out by XYZ national forecasting group (Weather Channel, National Weather Service, Accuweather, etc.)
3 points on that:
(1) Temperature forecasting is generally just not very accurate past about 3 days, maybe 5 days at the most. That’s not a knock on any forecasting entity, many of which are staffed by the world’s top-notch meteorologists, it’s just about the limit of moderrn capability. Anything beyond that is an educated guess.
(2) In the long range, because forecasting tools aren’t capable of being that precise and often vary widely, forecasting organizations tend to play to the middle on temperature forecasts. Really, it’s a smart thing to do, because individual forecast runs of the same model can vary 30 degrees sometimes, and then there are multiple forecast models.You don’t want your forecast for a day a week away calling for 70 then shifting suddenly to 35 in a few hours. Putting it in the 50s makes it easier to shift up or down gradually if needed.
(3) The development of potential storm systems can strongly affect the temperature. If the temperature a week from now is forecasted in the 50s and a storm sytem develops, that doesn’t necessarily mean it will still be in the 50s as the storm arrives. The track of the storm can change the temperature, dramatically, either direction. We can get in the 60s (even 70s) on the front side of a storm tracking west of us lifting warm air northward, or fall into the 20s and 30s (or even colder) on the backside of a strong low moving to our east.
Just a few things to think about on temperature forecasts way into the future.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 3, 2012 @ 4:00 pm
I am told there are some problems with commenters logging on this afternoon The technical folks are working on it and hope to have it repaired soon.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 3, 2012 @ 5:49 pm
Working now.
Comment by wdbrand — February 3, 2012 @ 6:39 pm
Thanks, WD. The silence has been deafening.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 3, 2012 @ 6:43 pm
I’m more interested in the upper energy that lags behind the main surge of moisture this weekend slated for Sunday Night. The 12Z NAM is most robust, but the Canadian is also showing a stronger upper vort from the northern stream phasing with the energy over the central U.S. and moving it east as a potent impulse aloft. The NOGAPS hints at this as well, while the other models shear the vort out, quickly pushing the moisture east and south before the cold air gets involved.
BUT should the stronger scenario play out, a stronger upper impulse would create it’s own moisture, possibly forming low pressure just to our south Sunday Night. This would help pull the cold air down into Roanoke as the system passes through enough for at least some snow. I still think the jet stream would carry the system east fast, but a few hours of snow are possible overnight Sunday if these trends continue.
In a winter that’s been void of anything too exciting for snow, this has at least some potential in my opinion. Upper level forcing can provide decent events sometimes… that seems to be the only way we are getting any snow this year, anyway.
So, let’s watch the models into the weekend and see how they trend.
But a word of advice: NEVER take for granted what’s happening out the window, especially as the potential event nears… no matter what the models end up agreeing on. You never know. I’ve been surprised plenty of times!
Comment by Jamey Singleton — February 3, 2012 @ 6:50 pm
Just a few points to update:
* Right now I’m not on board with anything more than some flurries/freezing drizzle on the back side of this weekend’s rain, at least for south of I-64 corridor. Not sold on surface temps being there to support it. Trailing disturbance late Sunday might have a shot to do something, but it would be light.
* Confidence growing that there will be a sizeable storm system next week moving NE out of the Gulf of Mexico. Not sure yet if cold air will be positioned right for a winter storm here. May come in behind it too late.
* Hard turn to NAO- may be possible at mid-month per today’s Euro runs. At the least, next weekend’s storm is likely to pull down some really cold air behind it.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 3, 2012 @ 6:55 pm
So in other words, the cold we were expecting to arrive on or around Feb. 7th will now arrive on or around Feb. 15th? Is anyone else seeing a pattern here?
As for the talk about marginal winter weather this weekend, the only counties in all of Virginia that have a reasonable chance of seeing 1″ or more of snow are Highland and Bath. Really can’t see any snow anywhere else in the Commonwealth. Kevin has been very clear that it won’t happen south of I-64, but I think it will be even more narrow than that, confined to north of I-64 and west of I-81.
Comment by Blacksburg Mike — February 3, 2012 @ 7:28 pm
Thanks Mr. Singleton for checking in. Muchly appreciated.
Comment by wdbrand — February 3, 2012 @ 7:31 pm
Trivia question: Which city has the higher all time total for a February snow storm – Denver or Roanoke? Answer: Roanoke at 15″, with Denver at 14″. So, I guess, at least in the month of February, it is better for a snow lover to be in Roanoke than Denver. Unbelievable, but true!
Comment by Blacksburg Mike — February 3, 2012 @ 7:39 pm
Mike: I would have known that answer, because I heard about Denver’s February record the other day. Colorado tends to get bigger snows in the spring than the winter.
As for the cold air — I wouldn’t really say that the cold air expected on the 7th is arriving the 15th. First, there is still a cold front passing in the middle of this coming week, but its air will be modified. The significance of the midweek front is that it does at least represent an Arctic boundary as opposed to Pacific air masses we’ve had lately. Secondly, the cold air later would be surging behind a strong low pressure system, so its very occurrence is still contingent on an event that is still not certain. The NAO- flip is even more speculative.
But I can understand the sentiment. In some sense this colder pattern has been seemingly hanging on the horizon about 2-3 weeks out since, oh, about mid-November. Its taken half of January to get 2 of 3 factors in line for it, and now looks to take half of February if not longer for the third to switch, if in fact it does at all.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 3, 2012 @ 8:03 pm
Other John, 9:38 AM. Hot wings, salsa, sausage balls?? You forgot to mention one other item that will almost certainly be needed by somebody …. heartburn and/or indigestion medicine. Speaking of watching the Super Bowl, a local radio station this morning claimed that they had learned of a study that found one single day of the year was “by far” most likely to cause urinary infections ….. you guessed it, Super Bowl Sunday (“SBS”). For nearly all sporting events on tv, most folks avail themselves of the “Bat Room” during tv commercials. But on SBS, a high %age of viewers sit and watch the ads, and keep holding it and holding it and ….. Researchers claim that is not good, and especially if someone has been downing a can of beer for each drive during the game.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 3, 2012 @ 8:05 pm
I just captchaed, and for what reason I have zero idea. One more time. I had a riding route today, and at the end of someone’s front walk, which descended to the street, was a small flower bed on either side of the walk at the end near the street. In full bloom were tiny, bright, bright yellow flowers with green stems, and the blossoms were the shape of tiny goblets. The flower patch faced due south, of course. Doppler Carol, wd, anyone …… if you know, please tell the COLC what they were.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 3, 2012 @ 8:15 pm
Kevin, I finally got to hear you on WVTF this afternoon as I drove back to Abingdon from Christiansburg. I have to say you did us all proud and you may end up using this venue as a stepping stone. Watch out Jim Cantore here comes Kevin. By the way, would you mind having to shave your head if you become famous. In all seriousness, I did enjoy your segment. Now all that’s left is for you to bring us a big snow storm.
Comment by Michael Hoback — February 3, 2012 @ 8:21 pm
Michael, thanks for listening and your kind words. And I’m sorry I forgot to post a reminder about it on the blog (though it does now appear in the upper right corner every day).
I should just let everyone here know on the air today I gave next weekend’s system a 1 in 3 shot to provide wintry precipitation to Virginia. That’s pretty good odds for a storm that far out in a winter like this one.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 3, 2012 @ 8:26 pm
WHAT IS GOING ON HERE????!!! Just got Captcha’ed again!!! GRRRR. Two years ago the switch from cold to warm was mind-boggling, and that is not an exaggeration. SW Virginia went from one of its most brutal winters in a long time through 3-6-10 to a very warm March to 9 days of midsummer heat from March 31st through April 8, 2010. I assume that the NAO went from very negative (which it had been for nearly the entire time from mid-December until early March) to positive. And the extreme warmth and very early spring for dogwoods and also for areas much further north happened throughout most of the eastern half of North America. So I think the flip this time will be really big the other way, when (and OK, “if”) the NAO becomes very negative. Bigger question in my mind is not the if, but the when.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 3, 2012 @ 8:27 pm
We’ve had some technical problems on the blog (all the Roanoke.com blogs, actually) today that may still be over-captcha-ing people.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 3, 2012 @ 8:33 pm
Kevin, It was Girls Night Out so I was listening to the car radio as I ventured out and there you were!!!! I had to chuckle because you didn’t sound like a BeeGee to Me! I really thought you would have a deeper voice.
Just walked the dogs and there is a hugh ring around the moon. I counte 4-5 stars inside the ring. I forgot what that is supposed to mean. I remember the ring around the moon back in Dec. 2009 and then there was snow.
Currently 35 F up here on the ridge just east of the Doppler. Very little wind.
Comment by Doppler Carol — February 3, 2012 @ 8:47 pm
Update:
No snow this weekend
No snow next weekend
No snow for the rest of this winter
Sincerely,
Ice Storm Lover (which by the way, I’m really not, just a running joke)
Comment by ice storm lover — February 3, 2012 @ 8:54 pm
I think some people on here are trying reverse psychology in an attempt to get snow….I love snow myself, and the odds to us getting nothing the rest of the year are slim in my opinion…. I have some hope for next weekend, but i guess we will see….
Comment by Flutie — February 3, 2012 @ 9:21 pm
Someone asked the other day if there was any snowfall in 1931-32, which is the runaway winner for balmiest winter on record in Roanoke and much of the region.
The answer is yes — 6 inches in March. Technically AFTER winter, but June 1 to July 31 is the snowfall “year” for official records.
I’ve got the snowfall records, spotty as they are, dating back to 1912 now, not just the 1940s as before, and I’ll be taking a look at some interesting nuggets in those in coming weeks. One clue: It appears that even if it doesn’t snow another flake, 2011-12 will not be the least snowy winter in Roanoke history, after all.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 3, 2012 @ 9:23 pm
Flutie: I am encountering a strange phenomenon, not just on this board, but elsewhere. Snow lovers are writing off winter and insisting snow is next to impossible from here on out. Snow haters are kinda antsy about getting walloped now because it’s been so warm for so long.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 3, 2012 @ 9:27 pm
And where in the lower 48 might you see 4 inches of snow in the Sunday/Monday time frame?………….nowhere! Some winter this turned out to be.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — February 3, 2012 @ 9:27 pm
I just found out that there is a little problem with my analysis of March and April 2010. Something other than the NAO caused that massive warmup. According to the history of the NAO, it stayed negative for all of 2010. Oops. Anyway, should NAO go deeply negative anytime in the next month or possibly even 5 weeks, it should cause temps to drop way below normal.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 3, 2012 @ 9:28 pm
KM, I agree fully with your comment 45. If a person can be evaluated on a zero to ten scale on how much they believe that weather comes in cycles, both in the short run and the long run, with ten being a super strong believer in the cyclical nature of weather, I am definitely an eleven. So was my dad. Some cycles just last longer than others.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 3, 2012 @ 9:32 pm
Yeah, Rick, but Nebraska is piling it up right now …
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 3, 2012 @ 9:32 pm
Rick of Wytheville, another great comment from you a few minutes ago. I actually laughed out loud. Were you a snow disliker in previous winters? I am pretty sure that I remember seeing a comment from you last autumn and proclaiming it here for the first time. You definitely get my MVP for this winter.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 3, 2012 @ 9:35 pm
Doug, are you sure they weren’t Daffodils, or buttercups?
Comment by Alex — February 3, 2012 @ 10:12 pm
Alex, that’s it!! Buttercups. Thanks. Also, I took the pooch out at 9:30 PM, and there it was again. The (nearly) full moon. DIRECTLY overhead. Full Snow Moon is on Monday, I think. Only it will probably be the Full No-New-Snow-of-any-Significance Moon for the continental US, judging from the link that RofW posted.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 3, 2012 @ 10:24 pm
Hey, Rick of Wytheville, do you know Chris Jenkins of your town? He does movie reviews for both WDBJ7 and My19. He just did one for “Chronicles,” and he gave it a poor review.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 3, 2012 @ 10:27 pm
Whatever happened to the Feb 10th storm from a few weeks/days ago? I’m headed to Snowshoe again a week from today and would enjoy some sort of upslope event at the least. I’m not having good vibes on a SWVA snow this year so I’m taking a 4 and 10 year old to learn to ski (and see some snow for the year). Wish me luck.
Comment by Matt — February 3, 2012 @ 10:56 pm
It’s still on the boards, Matt, Feb. 10-12 on most models. What IT will be is uncertain, but indications are actually growing there will be some kind of significant storm system, likely arising from the Gulf of Mexico, affecting the Eastern U.S. in that time frame.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 3, 2012 @ 11:02 pm
Thanks Kevin.. I usually read from the shadows and learn every bit there is to learn from this forum and take a general average from all sources to determine the weather (I deal with concrete and contractors who want to know what the weather is going to do.. thus the inherited interest in weather over the years). The most interesting thing I’ve found is how Cheat and Back Alleghany Mountain in Pocahontas County WV have such elevation and terrain that they create their own micro-environment. Let it be 50 and sunny here and drive 2 hours to the northwest and it’s 28 and snowing. I guess we can only complain “so much” considering the proximity to perpetual winter weather to where we live!
Comment by Matt — February 3, 2012 @ 11:17 pm
Only a very brief update to this entry to carry us through the day Saturday.
Here is where the Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang thinks accumulating snow will be — well well north.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/update-accumulating-snow-chances-low-sunday-except-well-west-and-northwest-of-dc/2012/02/03/gIQABbJIoQ_blog.html
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 4, 2012 @ 12:00 am
I’ve been following a thread on one of my weather forums about the Antarctic Oscillation…it explains a LOT about this winter…and it is finally going to go negative which could turn our weather cold…cold enough to snow in the next few weeks…winter is NOT dead…
Good to see Jamey Singleton on here…one of the best at assimilating his years of weather watching here in the Valley into what is actually going to happen…man seems to know when to disregard the models…
Comment by Betsy — February 4, 2012 @ 5:59 am
Thanks Kevin for mentioning my beloved Nebraska where I lived from 1986 to 1996. Looks like I would be “enjoying” another nice one today if I still lived just west of the Omaha metro.
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — February 4, 2012 @ 6:23 am
Matt, the only thing I found to hold true in over 40 years in the construction business that you could rely on and apply to weather was this: The wind was gonna blow the day you started sheathing a roof and blow til you got it felted.
Comment by wdbrand — February 4, 2012 @ 6:23 am
Doug, nope I don’t know Chris. And for your other question, I was clearly on the snow lovers side until I announced my conversion in early November. Thanks for being my sponser and mentor.
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — February 4, 2012 @ 6:26 am
Kevin, you take the folks to go tornado chasing in early summer, do you think you could take the TWLSer’s to look for snow this winter?
37 at 8:30 am and it is overcast and calm wind. Thinking about coming down the mountain to visit Roanoke today. wdbrand – I will wave as I go by ‘da knob.
Comment by Doppler Carol — February 4, 2012 @ 8:36 am
For the late-week system, morning models don’t have the northern stream trough capturing the southern low early enough and it runs out to sea. If you’re a snow lover, I think you’d rather see this solution prominent now rather than have it showing it going inland and raining. There tends to be a southeast bias on models, especially the GFS, so systems commonly track farther northwest than shown a week out.
Still, there are 4 major scenarios I see for this in our area: (1) inland track, all rain, followed by cold; (2) coastal track, cold air arrives late, mostly to all rain; (3) coastal track, phasing between northern trough and southern system, cold air in time, moderate-major snow event; (4) out to sea, cold air but little or no snow. 3 of 4 don’t involve significant snow for us. 1 does. At this point I would give each of these 4 scenarios about an equal chance of happening, all 4 have shown up on model runs in the last couple of days.
If I had to give it my best guess right now, I’d go with scenario 2, with the cold air coming in a bit behind most or all of the precipitation of a coastal (possibly very slightly inland, but east of us) low. Just an early, and only somewhat educated, guess.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 4, 2012 @ 8:54 am
Also added short update to note rain showers in the region. Highs in the low 50s in significant doubt if rain arrives early.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 4, 2012 @ 8:56 am
Good analysis on next week Kevin!
Do you or anyone happen to know why Denver doesn’t get a lot of snow in February or why is it rare that big snows happen there in February?
Comment by Nick in the Elett Valley — February 4, 2012 @ 10:30 am
Driving to the Homeplace from Hokieburg this evening with students. What will it be like around 5 PM?
Comment by HokieTrax — February 4, 2012 @ 10:56 am
HokieTrax: About what it is now. Cool, cloudy, drizzly, showery.
Nick: In a more typical winter much of the Rockies and central/northern Plains would be under more Arctic air, which is colder but drier. The storm track also shifts more south. So Denver tends to get lighter snow in mid winter with bigger events toward spring when the storm track and more moisture returns north … again, in a more typical winter than this has been.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 4, 2012 @ 11:37 am
I notice when I go to the 10 day outlook on Weather.com that the temps for next weekend have trended downward the last couple days…. does this mean the models are trending for the cold air to make its way here next weekend…. by the way, it shows no hint of precipitation next weekend, but I have noticed the temps coming down….
Comment by Flutie — February 4, 2012 @ 12:36 pm
KM – In your post at 8:45am you stated that scenario #3 would be a moderate-major snow event for us. What is your inch range for moderate and major? Also, IF this storm was to happen, am I right that the time frame is now looking like late Sat. 2/11 through Sun. 2/12? In other words, we should not expect anything before next Saturday evening at the earliest, correct? Hoping beyond hope………..
Comment by Blacksburg Mike — February 4, 2012 @ 12:41 pm
I have been going to the NOAA Model Analyses and Guidance pages and looking at the GFS precip/temp models trying to learn more. However, like the 12Z shows no precip for next weekend (Feb 10-11-12) as I am looking at it. Am I looking at the graphic all wrong?
Comment by Mark in Pulaski — February 4, 2012 @ 12:58 pm
Excellent Kevin! Thank you!
This drizzly weather has me “in the dumps” today. But we all do need the rain! Some precip. is better than none even if it isn’t snow.
Comment by Nick in the Elett Valley — February 4, 2012 @ 1:34 pm
I’m not sure how our drought status is doing though. I haven’t checked that in a while.
Comment by Nick in the Elett Valley — February 4, 2012 @ 1:35 pm
Mike: I would call 3-6 inches moderate here. Major I generally label as 12-plus, though that’s on outer edge of possibility. I probably should have said moderate to heavy (6-12 inches). I’ll get back on timing, don’t have data in front of me at moment, but what you said sounds about right.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 4, 2012 @ 2:46 pm
Mark in Pulaski:
You are looking at the correct stuff. I’ll be back shortly to explain more after the 12Z Euro comes out. I’ll paste better links for you to see.
Nick:
I’ll post the drought monitor shortly too.
Flutie:
Models have been trending colder but weather.com has no clue
Hokieburg Mike:
I can’t speak for Kevin, but my moderate/significant range is 4-8″ with anything 8-12″ as major, over 12″ a “Big-Un” & over 2′ is historic.
It is way too soon to tell what my happen next weekend, but the threat still exists. Many things can go very wrong with next weekend & it is extremely tricky right now, not to mention risky. Take for instance, IF the Polar Vortex doesn’t come that far south as the 12z GFS shows then there will be no cold air sources for the event. The other 2 big IFs and I mean IF is for the jetstream to phase & the NAO to go negative. 12Z GFS hints that the NAO may go -. If none of these things happen, then the whole thing falls goes bust. If next week doesn’t happen, then it will be fork time.
12Z Euro is coming out now, be right back.
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 4, 2012 @ 2:49 pm
Mark: morning models were out to sea with system next weekend so they would not show much precip for us
Flutie: Models are converging toward colder solutions so expect to see long rang forecasts cool some, but probably only in small increments til it’s more certain and closer in time.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 4, 2012 @ 2:55 pm
Quag’s Saturday 12Z Euro Update:
Saturday 12z Euro model still has the potential threat for next weekend. Euro shows on Feb. 10 an upper level vortex energy (ULL) over the 4 corners that moves south into the Baja Peninsula. Second, the Polar Vortex (PV) is far enough south but too far east which leads to #3, a coastal low developing way too far off the east coast & going out to sea. So at this point, Euro says Kevin’s scenario #4 is the winner. I THINK THE EURO IS WRONG! The GFS is also not painting the correct picture. Why? Both models are not taking possibility of a –NAO coming in late as well as the position of the PV. IF and IF the NAO goes -, then the picture could very well turn again. Also, there is no phasing of the Jetstream thanks to the ULL over the Baja. I’m not so sure the ULL goes that far south. It will go more east-southeast. It’s all up to the NAO now. If it doesn’t go – for this event, it’s over. Not just this event, but winter period. IF is such a big word now.
12Z Euro loop link from Penn State:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html
Mark in Pulaski:
Here are a couple of links for the GFS models from the NCEP @ NOAA:
Precip loop:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F04%2F2012+12UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p06&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M
500mb vorticies loop:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F04%2F2012+12UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M
3 other sites that I use are Allan Huffman’s Model Page which Kevin has links to the right, Penn State’s E-Wall page & stormtopia.com. Young Mr. Nick Sayor (I think he is now 14) does an outstanding job and has links to models.
Allan Huffman’s models:
http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/models.html
PSU’s ewall:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html
http://www.stormtopia.com
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 4, 2012 @ 3:23 pm
Mark in Pulaski:
One more thing. The upper air charts tell alot about a pattern and what can take shape. The jetstream plays alot into winter weather. Something else to consider when trying to figure it all out.
Sorry Kevin for being rather long in the last comment.
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 4, 2012 @ 3:27 pm
Captain Quagmire: Many thanks for your help. I will endeavor to extract more knowledge from the links you have provided. Thanks again.
Comment by Mark in Pulaski — February 4, 2012 @ 4:20 pm
12Z Euro shows the classic in-and-out Arctic air shot we’ve come to know so well in 2011-12. Yet it also shows a developing Greenland high so there may be something incongruous there.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 4, 2012 @ 4:20 pm
Getting back to Mike’s question earlier about timing, if there is a storm system for us late this week, Friday to Sunday is the general timeframe.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 4, 2012 @ 4:27 pm
Thank you Captain Quagmire!
Comment by Nick in the Elett Valley — February 4, 2012 @ 4:38 pm
18Z GFS has light-moderate snow on us Saturday — an overrunning type effect as one of the disturbances runs toward forming a larger low off the East Coast. Not of fan of off-hour (6Z,18Z) models a week in advance, but an interesting take on the scenarios (still would technically be No. 4, out to sea, with the big storm).
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 4, 2012 @ 5:47 pm
Just heard on the news that parts of Europe are suffering from extremely cold conditions. That probably means that the polar vortex/vortices are back on their side of the North Pole. We (OK, “I”) could use another one of those polar views, Kevin, to see what that is showing. Meanwhile, Nick, the “drought” condition is not bad (technically no part of Virginia is in drought, at least as of a few days ago on the CPC maps), but the rainfall here in the Roanoke valley was more than 1.2 inches below normal for January, and this system is not producing much here. Oddly, I drove past the Roanoke River both yesterday and today and it looks to be in excellent shape, considering the lack of good rains. And your area has probably had a bit more moisture since 1-1 than Roanoke. I say that because Other John, had just about 2 inches in January, while RRA had only 1.69 inches.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 4, 2012 @ 6:37 pm
Here you go, Doug, the current map from the 12Z GFS:
http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/files/2012/02/12ZEuro500mbheights0205.gif
Still more over eastern Asia. The cold over Europe doens’t look that severe by comparison, but it is trapped and very far south relative to normal.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 4, 2012 @ 6:43 pm
Thank you, thank you, er …… TYVM! directed to you, Kevin. It is interesting to look at that polar view. It is difficult (at least for me it is not easy) to pinpoint where exactly the center of that vortex is. To me, it seems like it is over the NW corner of Alaska, but there certainly are more purple and magenta colors extending into eastern Siberia than south into southern Alaska. And looking at southwest Canada, the entire provinces of Brit. Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are in green!! Talk about a positive PNA!! But the only blues of any intensity in the eastern half of North America are over Labrador and Newfoundland, not even upstate NY nor New England. I suppose that is a direct effect of no Greenland blocking.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 4, 2012 @ 6:54 pm
Do notice the area of yellow west of Europe and a thin gap of light green up toward Scandinavia. That might just be high pressure starting to build that will become the Greenland block and trigger a turn to NAO-. Or maybe not.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 4, 2012 @ 6:59 pm
I just looked at today’s “issue” of the CPC multi-day outlooks, and one can tell what the CPC is forecasting for next weekend’s storm path just by looking at the 6-10 day (Feb. 10-14). Warm and dry for most of Virginia (the southwest corner is neutral, but much closer geographically to the warm) than the wet, which extends from NC southward. Seems clear to me that they are forecasting next weekend’s system to head straight east through Georgia and the Carolinas and into the Atlantic. And I did look at the loops, and some of them (GFS?) showed that. But how truly meaningful is that now, at least 6 days away? As Kevin and a few others have already stated, not very. The really big news from teh 8-14 day is that CPC is predicting that the western US will become colder than normal, with the center of the cold in Colo., Utah, and Idaho. I thought that would mean a PNA heading down to neutral of negative, but that is not predicted, either. Weird.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 4, 2012 @ 7:06 pm
Thanks for pointing out that yellow area on the polar vortex map, Kevin.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 4, 2012 @ 7:07 pm
I have a request if possible Kevin…. when you talk about what a certain model is showing (for example, then 18z above) can you put a link on the comment so we can see it? Those model pages are confusing for a weather novice like myself….
Comment by Flutie — February 4, 2012 @ 7:11 pm
For me, too, Flutie. I can tell that blue means snow and green means rain (Right?), but that’s about it.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 4, 2012 @ 7:17 pm
This is one I was referring to, Flutie:
http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/files/2012/02/12ZEuro500mbheights0205.gif
I did link it 2 comments earlier. I’ll try to remember to repost the links with new comments.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 4, 2012 @ 7:18 pm
CPC maps very much match some of the morning model data. They are entirely computer-generated on weekends and highly susceptible to change based on minor changes on the models.
I know that no human forecaster looking at multiple models would ever turn out a map like this with so many blotches of wet and dry so close to each other and very little white normal area in between.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 4, 2012 @ 7:20 pm
I just peeked at the NAO two outlooks, both the ensemble and the GFS outlooks, and they may be starting to show the initial stages of a turn. I looked at the ensembles spaghetti yesterday, and only two of the 11 models (“spaghetti strands”) dipped into the negative section. Today’s graph shows 4. And on the GFS outlooks graph, the last day of the 10-day outlook shows the NAO dipping slightly neg, and on the 14-day graph, the last two days go negative. I will provide the links in a separate comment (worried about the CAPTCHA “clock”).
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 4, 2012 @ 7:21 pm
Don’t look like some things ever change for Roanoke. That batch of rain coming out of WV blew apart when it hit the Blue Ridge. The batch of rain to the south is moving to our south. Same ole story.
Comment by wdbrand — February 4, 2012 @ 7:21 pm
For next weekend — at this point, I would say many of the pieces are on the board for a winter storm — but I think too much has to go just so to make it happen. And this winter doesn’t seem to make much of anything go that way. Count me skeptical, but interested enough to keep monitoring.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 4, 2012 @ 7:22 pm
I was talking about the model for next weekends storm…. thanks for all you do KM…. sorry to be high maintenance….
Comment by Flutie — February 4, 2012 @ 7:26 pm
A word of caution that I intended to put in the 7:21 comment. Those 10-day and 14-day NAO graphs might mean nothing. The NAO could very easily just go back to horizontal path or even rebound a bit “upward.” Time will tell. But it is the first time in at least the past 5 weeks that I have seen ANY of the GFS outlooks graphs going into negative territory. LINK time: The GFS outlooks page for NAO: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index__mrf.shtml I’ll do the page for the NAO ensembles separately. clock is ticking.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 4, 2012 @ 7:27 pm
Oh-oh. Even though the link is highlighted in blue, I got an error message when I clicked on it. somebody please let me know if they have the same problem.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 4, 2012 @ 7:29 pm
18Z GFS version of next weekend’s storm (note green areas to west of blue 0C 850 mb line — presumably, that would be snow over western Virginia)
http://tinyurl.com/7gmxpas
Requesting information doesn’t make you high maintenance, Flutie. Whether I can provide it quickly often depends on whether I’m at a computer or on a smartphone.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 4, 2012 @ 7:34 pm
Kevin, I think Flutie wanted a link for the map mentioned in comment 82.
Comment by Mark in Pulaski — February 4, 2012 @ 7:35 pm
Wow! The 12z Euro has the NAO going waay negative for next weekend/early the following week. It shows a very strong positive 500 mb height anomaly for forecast days 6-10 over Greenland and the Arctic Ocean. This may not come to fruition, but it’s the first I have seen that strong a -NAO signal in the Euro.
Comment by Jason in Riner — February 4, 2012 @ 7:58 pm
Boy, on that map you just linked at 7:34 PM, I seriously doubt that “blue” means snow. I gotta feeling that it won’t be snowing in the vicinity of Florida. Not in this winter, anyway. (It snowed in Miami in January 1977, BTW, I think, during that truly epic arctic outbreak).
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 4, 2012 @ 7:59 pm
Hey, Kevin, if you get a chance in the next half-hour or so, could you please post a comment with links to the NAO (1) GFS outlooks page, the page with the 4 graphs; …. and (2) the NAO mean ensembles page, the one with the spaghetti strands. Thanks.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 4, 2012 @ 8:02 pm
On the map I posted at 7:34 p.m. (and posted again below, the 18Z GFS for Saturday evening), all green colors and blue colors represent precipitation of various intensities. The blue and red lines represent temperatures in 10 Celsius increments at 850 millibars, roughly a mile up. The green patches that are west or north of the blue line, which marks 0C or freezing, are generally where snow would be falling.
http://tinyurl.com/7gmxpas
Again, this is a single model run, and not really from a timeframe commonly used for long-range forecasting. I post it mainly to show a possible scenario for next week’s storm, with overrunning into cold air induced by a disturbance before it becomes part of a larger storm offshore.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 4, 2012 @ 8:13 pm
Doug, I do have an issue with the link you posted up. My computer keeps saying the error message. You are hilarious with the ticking-clock of the CAPTCHA. I believe it, it happened to me two nights ago. I wasn’t too thrilled about that. But I am thrilled about the possibility of a -NAO!!!!!!
Comment by Nick in the Elett Valley — February 4, 2012 @ 8:43 pm
Larry Cosgrove update.
Yes, it is a complicated forecast. All of the numerical models present
different solutions, and of course there is that “fear factor” that
any colder outlook will not verify . But there are enough signals
present in the upper atmosphere and satellite images to warrant a
better than even chance for an important winter storm affecting the
Old South, Appalachia, and the Eastern Seaboard in the February 11 -
14 time frame. And, with a lingering deep cAk vortex near Hudson Bay,
the possibility that some colder temperatures could stick around over
the eastern half of the nation through February 20.
Best Regards,
Larry Cosgrove
http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-houston/weatheramerica-newsletter-saturday-february-4-2012-at-6-50-p-m-ct
Comment by Johnny near KHLX — February 4, 2012 @ 8:50 pm
Storm chasing community shaken tonight by the death of a well-known storm chaser, Andy Gabrielson, in a traffic accident in Oklahoma. He was returning home from a storm chase in Texas.
http://wxch.nl/zFPeHJ
It underscores what I say every year when we take Virginia Tech students to the Plains states — the biggest threat we face isn’t tornadoes, hail, high winds, flooding or lightning, it’s traffic.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 4, 2012 @ 8:57 pm
I will be updating the blog later tonight with a model image showing some of the pieces that Cosgrove is talking about in Johnny’s 8:50 p.m. post.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 4, 2012 @ 8:59 pm
Love Cosgrove admitting the “fear factor” that goes along with any projection of colder weather. He’s obviously very familiar with the personality quirks of the 2011-12 winter.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 4, 2012 @ 9:11 pm
Jason of Riner, thanks for telling us what the Euro shows about the NAO. They are all by themselves in predicting the NAO to go that negative that quickly. On the NAO ensemble outlooks page, which I hope Kevin will provide a link to (because my attempt failed), none of the 11 models show the NAO going more than 1 degree negative at all during the forecast period through the 17th or 18th. That doesn’t mean that the Euro will be wrong …. simply that their outlook is extreme. I do believe that the NAO WILL go very negative at some point this winter, but probably later in February, like the 19th or 20th at the earliest. But I am trusting those ensemble outlooks, and also what the GFS outlook showed.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 4, 2012 @ 9:28 pm
Tomorrow’s forecasted high temp for Roanoke is 43 (NWS) or 44 (WDBJ7). That is a few degrees below the normal high of 47. Last days when Roanoke’s high temp was colder than the normal? Jan. 22 and 23, almost two weeks ago.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 4, 2012 @ 9:32 pm
Doug, the models have been all mixed up this winter about the upper air patterns. The Euro this morning was showing a positive NAO in the 6-10 day range. Basically anything could happen beyond 5 days. I think the next couple of weeks bear watching for the appearance (finally) of winter in the East. I just have a feeling he time is coming.
Comment by Jason in Riner — February 4, 2012 @ 9:40 pm
I agree with your last two sentences completely.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 4, 2012 @ 10:04 pm
Nick my apologies for not posting the drought monitor.
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
Conditions have improved over the south & TX.
Another thing to look at is the MJO, Madden Julian Osciallation.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml
The MJO is one of those teleconnections that is similar to the ENSO. It’s the largest element of the intra-seasonal (30–90 days) variables in the tropical atmosphere. It’s a large-scale coupling between atmospheric circulation & tropical deep convection (thunderstorms). Rather than being a standing pattern (like ENSO) it is a mobile pattern, propagating eastwards above the warm parts of the Indian & Pacific Oceans. That’s what Wiki says. The MJO has been the talk of the weather Met Blogs (americanwx) of the last day or 2. Many are saying that this MJO is going to turn to a more favorable cold weather pattern for the northen hemisphere starting this week. The MJO has remained at phase 6 for quite sometime. Those blog pundents are saying it will moving to phase 7, 8 then 1. It has yet to move. If the MJO turns in our favor for a more wintery pattern, then I’ll be more optimistic about next weekend.
One last thing, I honestly believe that models are going into “HAL” mode as in “Dave, what are you doing?” from 2001 A Space Oddessy. They are either scared to take a giant leap of faith thanks in part to their performance so far, or it really is going to turn warm and stay that way for the rest of winter.
Have that fork ready if next weekend doesn’t materialize.
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 4, 2012 @ 10:21 pm
Sounds like next weekend is make it or break it for snow, for Quag. Do you have similar thoughts, Kevin, or do you think we may have more snow chances through Februrary and March?
Comment by Roa10 — February 4, 2012 @ 10:25 pm
About to post a new entry on this week.
Roa10, I would just say this: Whether there is going to be a real wintry period in 2011-12 is probably going to be decided in the next 7-10 days. There can always be a singular snow event well into March and even early April, even if much of that period is warm. It’s also possible we could have a one-hit wonder with 1 winter storm this coming weekend or sometime thereafter — or continue along with the snow no-hitter.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 4, 2012 @ 10:44 pm
Visiting my parents this weekend in Smyth County. It has been dreary and rainy here all day today, at times with heavy downpours. Temps didn’t get above 45 until about 6pm. 2 hour drive home tomorrow, I would prefer sun and dry roads LOL.
I’m looking forward to the discussion this week as we move forward to this new system everyone is getting excited about.
Comment by Shanon "Nurse Snow" — February 4, 2012 @ 11:12 pm