2012.02.12
For now, it looks like a quiet, mostly mild week ahead for SW Virginia
Once again, the weekend’s Arctic outbreak will be a in-and-out intrusion, as there is no blocking high pressure over the north Atlantic to hold cold air in for very long. Monday morning, will start the week out chilly with lows in the teens to lower 20s, but high temperatures r
ecovering back to the upper 40s to mid 50s by mid to late week.. It appears that a weak low heading east along the Gulf Coast will not be able to maintain much of a northward flow of moisture on Tuesday morning, so chances of rain or snow showers will be low, and amounts will likely be minimal. A stronger low in the central U.S. later in the week may stay well west, and therefore will also likely fail to pull much moisture into the region. So that’s why most of Virginia and North Carolina are in a light green doughnut hole on the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center’s 5-day precipitation map, with much darker colors indicating heavier precipitation all around, particularly along the Gulf Coast. So, aside from the cold start, it looks, at least for now, like a mostly mild and overall quiet week of weather ahead, at least through Friday.
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Leaving any speculation about Presidents Day in the indefinite future for now. Skeptical, as is warranted for this winter.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 12, 2012 @ 8:33 pm
Well it may not be snowing here, but it is in Dallas.
And thanks for the NAO explanations in the spring/summer on the other thread. Learning something every day.
Comment by Roa10 — February 12, 2012 @ 9:42 pm
Wow, i just got through watching a strange but entertaining Netflix movie. I am stunned and humbled by the generally warm and enthusiastic reception my research project got on the previous thread. Thanks everyone!!! Hopefully we all know an awful lot more about the history of the NAO now and how it can interact in wintertime with other major factors in sometimes producing a snowy winter. wd, thanks especially to your praise, and I agree with one brief but CRUCIAL comment in my opinion you made on the previous thread about this winter. The incredible lack of snow cover in the eastern half (at least!!!) of the USA that I agree with you has had a major role in changing possible snow events into some sleet but mostly rain events. That importance of snow cover also played a gargantuan (is that spelled correctly? Who cares, Doug!) role in the opposite way during the winter of 2009-10.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 12, 2012 @ 10:19 pm
Quags, thanks for your “brvao” comment { :>) :>)}. About the JMA model. Perhaps they will do an excellent role of forecasting that Presidents’ Day storm. I am like Kevin and wd, very skeptical for the time being because of the +NAO, the receding AO, and the lack of snow cover, but stranger things have happened. But I do have some experience with how the JMA has done in forecasting swings in the ENSO El Nino or La Nina area. Awful. At least during late 2010 and last winter and early spring when I was paying very close attention to it. As I remember it, they were often predicting the La Nina to go away quickly and for temps in the ENSO area to rise quickly. They were dead wrong about the La Nina ending last summer and going into an El Nino. NCEP was terrific last winter in their prediction, but now NCEP has not done quite as well this winter, especially with the II model.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 12, 2012 @ 10:26 pm
Roa10, you asked a question at 6:31 PM on the previous thread about what extreme readings in the NAO during spring and summer cause. I will let Kevin and Quags and others dwell on that, but perhaps the biggest surprise I got in looking at almost 700 months of data was that the only NAO readings that had a 3 in front of it were not winter months, such as the -3.01 of August 1980!!! The month before was only a -0.39 and Sept. 1980 gyrated even more wildly, all the way to a +0.79!! I do know that the summer of 1980 was an epic landmark in the history of North American temperatures over the last 50 or even 60 years. It was as if someone turned on a furnace switch. The really cold winters of the 1960s and a few of the 1970s, especially 1977 and Feb. 1978, became mostly tame, and the blast furnace hot summers started coming in bunches. The American climate had decreased in temperature starting in the late 1950s and really cooled in the 1960s and 70s (source: NOAA graphs featured in Crichton’s “State of Fear” book), but has been warming ever since, starting in 1980.
Another extreme NAO level was November 1978, a +3.06. How is the following for weirdness? Oct. ’78: NAO of +2.61. Then November’s +3.06. I would expect that the NAO would drop back down but probably stay positive for the next two months or so. WRONG!!! Dec. 1978: -1.54 Jan. 1979: -2.12!! Feb. 1979: -1.20. While the Wash. DC area was getting blasted by that big Presidents’ Day weekend monster snowfall, the Boston area (the last full winter that I spent there) during most of Feb 1979 was in the grips of one of the worst cold snaps I have ever lived through. Highs in the teens, lows around zero, and some truly ferocious wind chills. Sort of what Bath and especially Highland County prob’ly had last night, but imagine 17-20 consecutive days mostly like that! I was into jogging then, and I would wear a ski sweater that was too warm to wear indoors. My face would look like I was blushing badly after each jog …. bright pink.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 12, 2012 @ 10:56 pm
Yep..put on your Jealous Jeans…
Just got back from dinner a bit ago…
light snow when I left..moderate snow ocnly
last couple of hours.
grass is covered…but streets to warm to stick.
Mix of snow and drizzle now…light south wind and 33-34f
Its a slow mover ..looks like at least 3 days away from SWVA.
Comment by Joe — February 12, 2012 @ 10:57 pm
Hey, Nick, remember how I agreed with you that Channel 10 is more optimistic about warmer temps than WDBJ7? I mentioned how they were forecasting a 43 high for Saturday and a 39 for today for Roanoke, while Channel 7 was forecasting 39 and 33? Well, a strange thing happened on the way to the Forum. Channel 10 did a much better job! High yesterday was 42, and high today was 38, at least according to a wunderground website I just accessed. I am surprised. And impressed. I may have to start monitoring the two.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 12, 2012 @ 11:05 pm
I just found one more month when the NAO level was more extreme than 3. July 1993 was a -3.14. June ’93 was only -0.29, and August ’93 was 0.03. Kevin, were there any major weather occurrences in July 93 (or perhaps very early August)?
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 12, 2012 @ 11:08 pm
I have been wondering the last couple of weeks how long we could stay in a particular phase of the NAO. It sounds like it’s not unprecedented to stay in the same phase the entire winter. Thanks Doug, for the research!
It’s interesting how some of the really big winter storms have happened when the overall pattern is unfavorable.
Comment by Jason in Riner — February 12, 2012 @ 11:10 pm
I think there will be plenty of speculation this week about a potential President’s day storm. Both the Euro and the GFS have been showing elements of a favorable setup for a storm, so there’s definitely potential there. The question is will it all come together. Way too early to tell.
Comment by Jason in Riner — February 12, 2012 @ 11:15 pm
One more thing. I really enjoyed doing that work. Give me some raw number data with a definite goal, and I LOVE analyzing it. I think there is another guy who makes a lot of comments on this blog who is probably the same way, and he knows a lot more about weather. KM. But I have more spare time than he does.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 12, 2012 @ 11:22 pm
Fascinating analysis about the NAO, Doug!!
I just returned from a trip to Dover, Delaware. It snowed a good 2 inches there. I usually go through DC to get there, but this time, I went through the Eastern Shore and they also got snow, even a little more than Dover.
Comment by Nick in the Elett Valley — February 13, 2012 @ 2:27 am
Good Monday Morning – it is 17 F with a windchill of 11 F up here on the ridge this morning near the Doppler. It didn’t sound as windy last night.
Captain Q – I have my fork ready. It’s time to start the seeds under the grow lights for the garden. Starting the sweet potatoes this week.
Comment by Doppler Carol — February 13, 2012 @ 7:11 am
Kevin, Quags,
I know it can still snow thru early April. What are both of your percentage rates of getting at least a 2″ plus snow yet to come this season? When can we pretty much say there will be no snow to come for the Rke/Salem area? The snow squalls we had at my house this past Saturday was like the flurries were laughin and toying with me.
Thanks, Melted Sammy the Snowman.
Comment by Sammy snowman — February 13, 2012 @ 7:20 am
In honor of the Grammys…
We could have had it all
rollin in snow very deep (snow so very deep)
Waited all night for it to fall
But it faded to the east!
Dedicated to the snowless winters of 10-11 and 11-12
Comment by ryan — February 13, 2012 @ 8:18 am
Sammy: I’ll go with even odds for a 2-plus snow for Roanoke (50-50) and maybe 2 in 3 (nearly 70 percent) for Roanoke by March 15, which I consider based on history to be the end of the period when you can reasonably expect significant snow for the sub-3,000 feet elevations in our region. After that, snows do occur occasionally, but it is an atmospheric fluke if you get more than 2 inches. March 30, 2003, was the last time it happened (Blacksburg had some measurable snow in April in 2007, but not 2 inches).
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 13, 2012 @ 9:17 am
Doug: Here’s something that may be a shocker in answer to your question about July 1993. It was significant for having the HOTTEST average July temperature (tied with last July) on record for Roanoke.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/rnk/climate/top10s/ROA/hiavgt07.txt
A case in point for what we were talking about yesterday and how the NAO is less an indicator of prevailing patterns for us in summer than winter.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 13, 2012 @ 9:22 am
GFS model for Feb 19th looking good? What are your thoughts Kevin?
Comment by Pistol Pete — February 13, 2012 @ 9:25 am
Joe: Absolutely amazing that Dallas can get snow on a SOUTH wind. Shows how cold the atmosphere was to start with. Of course that south wind brought in enough warmth to change it over, but still amazing. Much of my native state of Arkansas is also getting snow on that same south wind today. I can’t really ever remember that happening for more than just a few minutes, but 1 to 3 inches is forecast over much of the northern part of the state before it changes to mix and rain.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 13, 2012 @ 9:27 am
Doppler Carol, I’m thinking of starting tomato seeds indoors for the first time this year. We normally buy the plants to set out, but wanted my kids to see how to grow them from seeds this year. I don’t have a “sunny” window at my house, where should I look for a grow light at? My grandfather used to start his seeds in an old milk jug and put them on top of the refrigerator for “heat”.
It was 28 when I went out to start my kid-mobile this morning, and the temp read 31 when we pulled off to work and school. I know that my furnace has been having to knock the rust off this weekend b/c the wind was slicing through everything! I’m not sure what my altitude is where I am…..I’m guessing below 1300′ (somebody might be able to help me out with that)
Comment by Shanon "Nurse Snow" — February 13, 2012 @ 9:31 am
Here is what Pistol Pete refers to:
http://tinyurl.com/7wny9mu
If it happens, it would really thread the needle, catching one cold front perfectly and then warming back up afterward. Still more that can go against it in a week than can go for it, but it is a plausible solution, showing up in some form on multiple models, with a few (but not all) key features in place. Worth watching, but I won’t be putting a lot of stock into it unless it’s still showing up like this on Wednesday or later.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 13, 2012 @ 9:34 am
That storm for Presidents day looks to far south for us folks up here near Charlottesville to get any snow! Any chance it nudges a little more north of that track?
Comment by jared french — February 13, 2012 @ 9:47 am
Jared: A week away, you can just about bet the house it won’t be exactly where a single model run shows it today. Don’t take anything too literally about models that far out. The bigger picture is more important, the general idea that a low may form on or near the Gulf/Southeast coast in that timeframe.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 13, 2012 @ 10:01 am
Kevin, I was really excited to see the headline “quiet, mostly mild week ahead”. Usually when you post something like that we get all kinds of crazy weather.
Comment by Patrick — February 13, 2012 @ 10:37 am
Nurse Snow – yes, you can use milk jugs – just slice them almost in half horizonatlly and fill with potting soil. Barely push the seeds into the soil and then lightly water and put the top down of them. Keep them where it is warm. Once they pop up, you can put them in a sunny window or buy a gro-light. You can get them at any hardware store – but be sure the bulb is labeled ‘grow – light’. We have a couple tomato seeds already started – hope to be able to have some early ‘maters. I am going to start some flowers later this week too. We are putting our sweet potatoes in a glass of water – like you can do with the avocado seeds and the potatoes will eventually send off shoots.
Stay tuned for part two about growing – have to rush out the door.
Comment by Doppler Carol — February 13, 2012 @ 11:01 am
Patrick: Hence the words “For now” and “it looks like” …
Biggest example of what Patrick was talking about happened 2-3 days before the Feb. 10, 2008, wind storm. But I wouldn’t go so far as “usually” something wild happens, since this headline tends to get repeated a lot during boring summer weather.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 13, 2012 @ 11:20 am
Kevin, thanks for looking up July 1993. Sounds like the incredibly negative NAO reading for July 1993 acted as a kind of Bermuda high pressure but way out of position, thus keeping the HOT AIR locked in here, instead of wintertime’s cold air. Please reply to that possible explanation. And of course that theory is no good if the big high then was over toward Ireland instead of near Greenland’s west coast.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 13, 2012 @ 11:24 am
And also weather fans, keep in mind that Kevin is not the only source indicating that things will be mostly quiet through Friday here. I have looked at the forecasts for SW Virginia through Friday on WDBJ7, WSET13, WSLS10, TWC, NWS, WeatherUndergound, and ALL OF THEM are forecasting light precip on Tuesday, chance of rain on Thursday, quiet for today, Wed., and Friday. So he will have plenty of company if something changes radically and we have a big weather event on one of these days.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 13, 2012 @ 11:29 am
Also didn’t include the weekend in that just in case that low on the Gulf really does come about.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 13, 2012 @ 11:39 am
If any of you folks are hoping that we get a decent amount of moisture tomorrow, and especially if you live east of I-77, I suggest that you don’t get your hopes up. Dewpoint here in Roanoke was 13 degrees a few minutes ago, with humidity at 38%. The system now in western TN and that general area will be running into some extremely dry air here. The TWC hourly forecasts plus NWS and even the WSLS website (they have a screen one can click on and get Roanoke’s hourly forecast), have all been signalling a later and later arrival of any wet stuff tomorrow. And anything that does fall here in ROA will be light, it looks like. WSLS is forecasting no measurable rain until tomorrow evening. Of course, higher elevations (listening, Doppler Gal?? LOL) are more likely to get a bit wet. And spots further west, likewise.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 13, 2012 @ 11:52 am
Hey all, ole Richard Sampson here checking in from up here down in Willis, VA. Same ole Same ole seemin like to me. Dern Prudence keeps gettin on me wantin me to take that ding dang plow blade off the ole ’78 but im tellin her im thinkin we still will be gettn some that white stuff soon enough! 34 degreese and light breeze down here at the house. Nice day for skunk poppin but i think ill just split more wood. Yall meatierologists thinkin its gonna snow sometime soon? I could use the pushin money clearin them lots round here.
Comment by Richard Sampson in Willis, Va — February 13, 2012 @ 11:54 am
Hey, did anyone lose some flowers that bloomed very early? I saw some beautiful daffodils on Friday on someone’s south-facing front yard ….. I bet they look awful now. Luckily my lullaby to my forsythia worked …. they are still asleep, although it almost looks like they started to awaken, then hit the “SNOOZE” button on their internal alarm clock.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 13, 2012 @ 11:55 am
HA!! GFS takes FEB 19 storm out to see now. Unreal.
Comment by Pistol Pete — February 13, 2012 @ 12:06 pm
oops..I mean SEA.
Comment by Pistol Pete — February 13, 2012 @ 12:07 pm
Pistol Pete & et al:
12Z GFS is to be disregarded. Numerous data errors. Bad run.
12Z Ukkie (UKMET) says HELLO! PD3!
12Z Euro & 12Z CMC will be out shortly.
Will try to update before take-off.
sent from my stupid phone
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 13, 2012 @ 1:37 pm
Seems all the models but GFS have flipped to a snowstorm. Still skeptical.
Comment by Ice storm lover — February 13, 2012 @ 1:46 pm
Cap’t, thanks for the links. Like I said before, I couldn’t read a chart any more than a French menu. I think I ordered somethin slimey that looked like snails and jug of cog-noggin. The licker won’t bad, but I’ve fished with better bait than those snails.
Comment by wdbrand — February 13, 2012 @ 1:49 pm
Euro shows a well defined low pressure off the Carolina coast. For all the models out there, the Euro to me is the most accurate this far away from the event happening.
Comment by Jeff W. — February 13, 2012 @ 1:58 pm
BREAKING NEWS FROM NEWS CHANNEL 988 WEATHER CENTER…12Z EURO HITS JACKPOT!
President’s Day Storm 3 aka PD3 closer to reality…
Monday’s 12Z Euro now shows a major east coast snow event.
Back later this evening with more details…off to the wild blue
sent from my stupid phone
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 13, 2012 @ 2:03 pm
My 2 year insisted on putting on her snow boots this morning for the first time this winter. Maybe that is a predictive model for weekend snow? I mean really, I’ll take anything at this point.
Comment by Kat W — February 13, 2012 @ 2:19 pm
12Z Euro snapshot from Allan Huffman for Sunday Feb. 19:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS144.gif
Another 12Z Euro snapshot from Baltimore Met Justin Berk. He explains what the Euro says and details the blocking.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10150597109288476&set=a.472052198475.261315.54875673475&type=1&theater
Folks are here…final boarding call…back later this evening with update and my thoughts..
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 13, 2012 @ 2:25 pm
I agree about the Euro usually being the best in mid to long range … but if we had all the snowstorms it had us gettin 6 days out last winter, we’d still be shoveling last year’s snow!
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 13, 2012 @ 2:25 pm
Understand what you are saying Kevin, I’m in no means looking for a huge strong coastal low this weekend….. yet. I’m just a little skeptical right now just like all the other weather buffs in SW VA.
Comment by Jeff W. — February 13, 2012 @ 2:42 pm
Wow, DT is on Facebook going woof woof bark woof over the 12Z Euro that came out about an hour ago! He said it mentioned major east coast storm with 6 plus inches for our area in central Virginia, could this finally be our breakthrough in this pathetic winter. DT is really getting excited over this, unlike any storm this winter!
Comment by jared french — February 13, 2012 @ 2:43 pm
Count me in with ice storm lover as a skeptic. I’ll probably remain skeptical until oh about Saturday night or Sunday, if the models are still showing something and the Radar and temps are supportive of something happening. And despite all of the hope for some snow this past weekend, we got just a measly 0.1″ of snow, well more like graupel for a lot of it, that quickly accumulated during a heavier snow burst Saturday morning, but that melted just about as soon as it tapered off. And that was it. Just a few flurries here and there the rest of the time, but the win…man was it wicked. We spent most of Saturday in Salem and Roanoke and when we got back to the NRV, we had watched the temp from the car drop from 25 to 18. As we walked up to the house, the street lights flickered because of the wind, and inside the house, our lights flickered a few times too. We got the candles, oil lamps, and firewood ready in case of an outage, but the grid held up.
Comment by Other John — February 13, 2012 @ 2:47 pm
That should say *wind…left out the ‘d’, like the VT basketball team tends to do from time to time as well, but they more often than not drop the ‘o’.
Comment by Other John — February 13, 2012 @ 2:49 pm
While some of you model enthusiasts get your hopes up about next Sun./Monday, I’m gonna talk about the Old Farmers Almanac. It is predicting a slightly cooler than normal summer for our region, “The Appalachians.” Boy, I hope they are right. OFA did an absolutely stupendous job in forecasting our January. +5 degrees, only 2 inches of precip. A++. But they forecasted December to be only a +1 (it was also a +5 for ROA and a close to +4 for Blacksburg, I think), so not so great on that. And they predicted Dec. to have only 2.5″ of precip, ROA got over 4. They predicted Nov. to be 0.5 degrees colder than normal, it was a +2.4; and they also predicted only 2.5 inches of precip, ROA got 4.3. So two pretty bad scores offset by an A++ for January. They are going to be way off for February’s temps, also. OFA predicted a huge 5 degrees colder than normal …. there is absolutely no way ROA nor Blacksburg is going to get anywhere near that cold, and it is pretty likely that both cities will end February warmer than normal, although that could change. (CPC thinks it will not change to colder than normal, however). OFA is going to join Mike of Blacksburg (and probably me in March) and pay the price for going out on a limb with their Feb. forecast.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 13, 2012 @ 3:02 pm
Game on!
Comment by Jason in Riner — February 13, 2012 @ 3:19 pm
Nurse Snow -Part 2 – I am back – I had to leave to go to a luncheon with friends. Your tomatoes were part of the lunch discussion and one of my friends reminded me that you need to poke holes in the bottom of the jugs and I added it might help to put a coffee filter paper in the bottom to collect any dirt/soil that might want to drain out. My friend had some of hers under gtow lights. Do you have a sunny window at school? You could start them there. You can leave the cap on the milk jug to keep the warmth in or leave it off if it gets to warm in there. You can also duck tape the cut you made in the jug if you want to keep it warm in the jug. I also have one of those square clear plastic containers that you can get doughnuts, croissants or cupcakes in and I am going to try that for my flowers I want to start. Good luck gardening.
Still have my fork handy and ready to stick in this winter.
Comment by Doppler Carol — February 13, 2012 @ 4:51 pm
Quagmire’s 2:25 p.m. comment (No. 41 for those with browsers that show the numbers) has good links to the Euro model output for this weekend. It does show quite a winter storm setup.
Interesting that the Euro takes the low on NE-ward from Hatteras rather than turning it northward along the coast. That could change, but could also be a natural result of a PNA+ pattern with no Greenland blocking. Taken very literally, it would be a quick-hitting but heavy snow over much of Virginia, but wouldn’t make it much farther north than Philadelphia.
Lots of time for all that to change, including the very existence of the low. The last storm we sorta watched like this did in fact form this past weekend, but was about 200 miles off shore and headed way out to sea quickly.
If it snows this weekend, it probably won’t last on the ground very long. So it could give snow lovers what they want while also not being too much of a hindrance for the snow dislikers.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 13, 2012 @ 5:06 pm
D. Carol, you can use an empty egg carton to start seeds in and have a lid handy for overnight heat storage and when raised, it can be a reflector for heat in the daytime. Good for starting and then transplant.
Comment by wdbrand — February 13, 2012 @ 5:21 pm
NWS-Blacskburg definitely not biting on the Euro solution yet. Check out the current forecast for Roanoke:
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 52.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 31.
Washington’s Birthday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 53.
Forecast discussion, though, notes plenty of uncertainty regarding weekend, and sounds as if precipitation chances will soon be introduced into the forecast.
.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RNK&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
If this storm looks to be real mid to late week, this forecast will change dramatically, even if we end up with a cold rain or mix situation
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 13, 2012 @ 5:24 pm
You kinda get to where you figger things are twisted when areas around Memphis have WSW posted and we’re calling for the upper 40′s or so.
Comment by wdbrand — February 13, 2012 @ 5:29 pm
Stuff to the north and west of Memphis area went to mix and rain much faster than many forecasts suggested. South wind is a snow killer with no mountains in the way.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 13, 2012 @ 5:59 pm
DT has quite a rant going right now (see link KM has to the right). He is trying to explain why his forecast a week ago for this past weekend was not a bust. Now he is hyping the upcoming President’s Day major east coast storm. I hope it happens, but count me in the skeptics group for now.
By the way – good snows this past weekend at Whitetop – measured about 4″-6″ with an air temp of 3 degrees Sunday morning up at 4,500′. Quinwood and Whitetop are definitely must see destinations for snow lovers. My rule of thumb is if you see a few flakes and feel a strong NW wind in Roanoke or the NRV it is snowing to beat the band in those areas.
Comment by Blacksburg Mike — February 13, 2012 @ 7:47 pm
Brent Watts is biting a little bit now on the Euro.
Comment by Lee from NRV — February 13, 2012 @ 7:48 pm
Note to Quags,
Thanks so much for your info this past weekend about flying out of Roanoke on the windy Sunday. It was bumpy, just like you said, for the first 5 minutes. Then smooth as glass until we landed in Charlotte. I don’t fly a lot, so thanks for the encouragemnet!
Comment by Jay — February 13, 2012 @ 8:15 pm
I will not bite I will not bite I will not bite I will not bite..
Comment by Brandon R. — February 13, 2012 @ 8:18 pm
Here is a link to what Lee is talking about:
http://brentwatts.tumblr.com/post/17575432179/euro-model-hinting-at-a-weekend-light-snow
Comment by Travis — February 13, 2012 @ 8:35 pm
Looks like El Nino is on the way though you’ll have to wait until late summer to see it. Check out slides 26-30 for the most part….especially slide #27.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — February 13, 2012 @ 8:38 pm
Well, if this weekend event happens, I hope it hits here Saturday night or early Sunday. No mail deliveries on either Sunday or Monday (Presidents’ Day federal holiday).
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 13, 2012 @ 8:46 pm
One thing in the favor of the snow lovers (besides the existence of a “southern jet” as KM refers to it), we are coming into the time of the year (late February and March) when the “rules” get bent or even broken, as Kevin mentioned on Sunday, and snowstorms, even big ones, can occur when the NAO and lack of snow cover say they “shouldn’t.”
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 13, 2012 @ 8:50 pm
18z GEFS members all show snow in Virginia for the most part!
Comment by Alex — February 13, 2012 @ 8:50 pm
So Rick of Wytheville, now that you have “come out of the closet” and confessed that your comments as a snow lover were a ruse, are you going to put on the plow attachment to your tractor? :>) :>)
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 13, 2012 @ 8:52 pm
I have bit, swallowed it, and running with it! Probably be choking on it by Wednesday.
Comment by Bedford snowman — February 13, 2012 @ 8:53 pm
Jay…glad to see it wasn’t so bad just as I thought it would.
Brandon…I have a prediction for you. All the models will take PD3 OTS on the 0Z runs. Save your bite for another day. On your probability scale-o-meter, I’m up to 6% this will happen.
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 13, 2012 @ 9:03 pm
Doppler Carol, thank you! I guess I’ll have to get a gallon of milk or juice to use :-> I don’t have a window in my office at school unfortunately. I could probably convince my secretary to let me put it in her window though LOL. I have a little “greenhouse” type thing I was going to give a try this year. We’ll see.
I saw that DT was biting and Brent Watts was biting on the Euro version of this upcoming weekend. I’ll remain optimistic for 6+ inches of snow! Apparently DT saw something he really liked in that run to get all the woof’s and bark’s out of him.
Comment by Shanon "Nurse Snow" — February 13, 2012 @ 9:09 pm
Brandon…
Here’s a another teaser for you, the 18Z DGEX @ hours 144 & 150:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html#picture
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 13, 2012 @ 9:14 pm
On second look, Neutral is even more likely than either El Nino or La Nina for the upcoming summer and fall.
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — February 13, 2012 @ 9:21 pm
I may start to nibble …
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 13, 2012 @ 9:21 pm
Doug, I think you mean my comments as a snow hater were a ruse. I was always pretty much a snow lover from the time I was a kid (cancelled school) to always being comfortable driving in it……to a point. I’m just a little less enthusiastic (and this part is true that I tossed out in the November ruse) I now have to drive 20 miles on some rural roads to be at work by 7am. You asked if “I’m going Back to my plow”……..ok, not those words exactly, but it reminded me of a line in the old Elton John hit, “Goodbye Yellowbrick Road” from 1973. Not until I see a real snowstorm coming.
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — February 13, 2012 @ 9:50 pm
So I am really waking up from my winter hibernation haha! Here is a DGEX snow map, although I’m a little scared that it has us right in the “sweet spot” because it almost always changes…
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/
Comment by Travis — February 13, 2012 @ 10:01 pm
Warming up the hype wagon here in the Foster house. I like what I see, and what KM and CGQ are putting into focus. I’m about 10% in right now, but have a funny feeling by Friday we….. no no staying positive.
Comment by Keith — February 13, 2012 @ 10:15 pm
The TWLS will be so mad if it snows on a 3 day weekend. When she has plans to drive to Winchester for the weekend. Isn’t that always the way… LOL!
Comment by Jennifer — February 13, 2012 @ 10:38 pm
Because for the first time all winter, I don’t want it to snow… it almost definitely will. That’s my forecast.
Comment by Jennifer — February 13, 2012 @ 10:40 pm
Jennifer, great comments!!! LOL. Murphy’s Law of Snowstorms in this awful winter (so far) for the TWLSes. By the way, Jennifer, and this is a big tease, not a taunt, I think you intended to type “angry,” not “mad.” Reminds me of an ancient routine from the comedy LP “Bert and I:” (Down East Humor) “Heard you had to shoot your dog the other day, Earl …………….. was he mad?!?!?” ………. “Guess he wasn’t too pleased …..”
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 13, 2012 @ 11:05 pm
By the way, Jenn, if it does snow at any time while you are driving to Winch or back, from my experience the biggest thing to worry about will not be the road conditions so much as clowns (usually from out of state) who drive like maniacs.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 13, 2012 @ 11:10 pm
Yes, Rick, I meant “snow hater” in my 8:52 comment.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 13, 2012 @ 11:13 pm