2012.02.14
Many looking past mild, quiet week toward possibly wild weekend
If Tuesday is any indication, it may be difficult to tell by the blog comments the next few days that there’s any weather going on before late Saturday night into Sunday. And truthfully, the period of time until the weekend looks pretty uneventful, though that often means pretty good weather for getting outside. Highs are likely to be 50s from Roanoke south and east each day (some mid-upper 40s Blacksburg and farther west) . The only chance of rain is Thursday, although, just like Tuesday, it appears the greatest amounts of rain will split north and south of us, with the best atmospheric dynamics going north and best moisture going south.
Now, on to the weekend. Forecast models are still not agreeing on a lot of specifics, but as of early Tuesday evening, the general idea present on just about all of them is that a low-pressure system is likely to form in the Gulf of Mexico and move east-northeast or northeast during the weekend. From there, lots of critical factors remain in flux, such as strength of the low, exact track of the low, depth of cold air available, level of moisture transport, exact structure of atmospheric features both “upstream” and “downstream” of the storm in the upper air flow, and probably several other things I couldn’t immediately remember to include. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center’s weather map posted earlier Tuesday seems to show about the mid-range on where the low is likely to be located by Sunday morning. This is a highly favorable track for significant snow in western Virginia during mid to late February given that there is enough cold air to the north for it to tap. And right now, that is one of the major questions I have about it — even if it moves on the favored track for snow, will there be enough cold air for a widespread snowfall, or for more of a higher-elevation snow with mix or rain down lower? High temperatures may well top 50 degrees on Saturday — there are LOTS of late February and March snows on record with previous-day highs that warm or even warmer, but it still could be limiting factor minus a sharp Arctic air mass moving in like this past weekend. If the moisture moves in during the late-night or early morning hours, as seems probable now, cooling may be quicker and easier, enhancing the chance of snow. Back and forth, pro and con … that’s the line of commentary on this storm system the next several days.
Right now, I’m convinced this storm is going to happen over or near the Southeast U.S. I think I need another couple of days to consider the likely track and level of cold air available. I will say this much at this point: This is the BEST chance yet for a significant, widespread snowfall in Southwest Virginia this entire season, though that’s not really saying a whole lot in a very mild, mostly snowless winters. And if it does happen — it will melt away quickly early next week.
RSS feed 
Great write up Kevin. Least we finally have a storm to follow.
Comment by Roa10 — February 14, 2012 @ 9:41 pm
This is all the NWS will say at this point for Sunday in Wytheville.
Sunday: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — February 14, 2012 @ 10:03 pm
Kevin…
Our av chart 120 hours out is pretty much in agreement..
Noon Sun show the Low well off Nc-Va cost..
Large swath of moisture Western Va thru Fla..heaviest
from JAX, Daytona to 100mi south of Wilmington..
Cold front pushes south by this time to around Lake Okeechobee.
Comment by Joe — February 14, 2012 @ 10:03 pm
oops….that same chart shows a little pocket of freezing precip
around GSO…very tiny little area…
As always….Stay Tuned to Kev and NOAA Radio.
Comment by Joe — February 14, 2012 @ 10:06 pm
I’m definitely enjoying following all the talk about this upcoming storm. Kevin, I at least know a little more from your wonderful explanations than I did. I’m a professed weather junkie, with absolutely no clue how to read the maps
Maybe we should have a class on it LOL
Comment by Shanon "Nurse Snow" — February 14, 2012 @ 10:15 pm
Kevin and Captain and Zach (and anyone else who really knows this stuff): if the Low forms in the Gulf and then goes to Georgia, and then goes to “SLH” …. Snow Lovers Heaven, meaning just off the Outer Banks …. would that qualify as a Miller A? Or a Miller B? OK, how about a Budweiser C (sorry about that one)?
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 14, 2012 @ 10:45 pm
Snow lovers would shout “It’s Miller A Time!” if that happens, Doug.
We haven’t had one since Feb 5-6, 2010
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 14, 2012 @ 10:51 pm
Be a pure Miller A.
Recent NAM cuts off the low at 84 hours over Texas. I know its the NAM BUT – - Every big storm we have seen this year seems to have gotten cut off over that region. This would allow warmth to flood into the east as it slows the system down. If I see this out of the GFS and Euro, MAJOR red flags go up.
Comment by zach — February 14, 2012 @ 11:04 pm
Early returns on the GFS are very favorable.. Much more phasing.
Comment by zach — February 14, 2012 @ 11:09 pm
00z GFS looks like mostly rain.. :/
Comment by Alex — February 14, 2012 @ 11:19 pm
Spoke to soon. Model Keeps northern energy NW of us would be a nasty ice storm if verified. Models really don’t seem to have a clue at this point
Comment by zach — February 14, 2012 @ 11:20 pm
It’s early, but my guess is that we’re looking at the beginning of another westward trend.
Comment by Brandon R. — February 14, 2012 @ 11:23 pm
0Z GFS follows the seasonal pattern of storms taking an inland route.
http://tinyurl.com/7qxax7a
That’s the third totally different solution in as many runs today for the GFS, and also is very FAST compared to previous runs/other models, with precipitation well under way by Saturday evening.
Not enough continuity to really take it seriously yet, other than the idea that a large wet low is likely to be located somewhere over the Southeast.
I’ll be in bed when the new Euro comes out.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 14, 2012 @ 11:30 pm
If a low were that deep off the coast of the VA/NC border, wouldn’t you more so look at the 546 line since it’s a deeper low, especially since it’s going to happen in the evening? Wouldn’t that help any?
Comment by Alex — February 14, 2012 @ 11:38 pm
Wouldn’t a storm with that track and intensity produce cold air enough to overcome any marginal temp issues?
Comment by Alex — February 14, 2012 @ 11:47 pm
Absolutely no kicker on this run. Allows the energy to speed up, and catch up with the northern stream energy over the lakes in a sense. Also, 50/50 low is non existent. Not a great time frame for GFS.
CMC and GGEM look good.
Comment by zach — February 14, 2012 @ 11:53 pm
Thanks guys.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 15, 2012 @ 12:30 am
Euro was still a tad south. Still like this. Room to adjust
Comment by zach — February 15, 2012 @ 2:45 am
You down with PD3, yeah you know me
You down with PD3, yeah you know me
Bringing it back “old sckool” with NaughtybyNature
Comment by Todd in SWcity — February 15, 2012 @ 6:49 am
Ray’s Weather Center (linked to the right) has rain, maybe changing to snow. Listen folks, if it is “maybe” going to change to snow over the high terrain of NW NC, we don’t stand a chance here in VA, even west of the Blue Ridge. Game Over, go back to your regularly scheduled programming.
Comment by Blacksburg Mike — February 15, 2012 @ 7:09 am
Wow, you’re in and out fast, Mike! Almost as fast as Quagmire.
If it were a cold air damming/overrunning setup, that wouldn’t be necessarily true, Mike. Tons of cases of NC Mtns. getting rain/frz rain, even as far north as summit of Mt. Rogers in Va, with snow in SW Va, even in lower elevations. But one of the big issues with Sunday’s setup is that it’s not that, and I’ve long said on here that I thought that would be about the best way to get a snow in a winter like this.
HPC has a much different idea than Ray: They have it barely scraping us, mostly slipping south. Obviously they’re not buying the GFS. They’ve shifted SOUTH with the track, not north.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95e12p48iwbg_fill.gif
I would strongly agree with Ray though that cold air availability is problem No. 1 with the weekend setup, in regard to snow. It will take a very deep low on just the right track to overcome that.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 15, 2012 @ 7:19 am
Nurse Snow – I remembered this morning and I think you were the one who asked about knowing your elevation. You can download Google Earth – the basic website – and then type in your address and you can see your elevation. That is the program I use to give me elevations for various places. Being a weather junkie, I too love the discussion I read from fellow bloggers. Quite a bit is over my head and reading the maps is too confusing to me so I always rely on Kevin to give the watered down version to me. I have learned lots of new weather terms by following the blog and reading what all the weather folks talk about. I am still skeptical about this President’s Day storm that is being discussed. I will be pleasantly surprised if we get snow.
Trevar – I have tossed around in my mind the thought of doing a blog about gardening and growing your own food. I will let you folks know when and if I get it up and going.
I will keep checking in today and the next couple days to see the discussion about the models.
Comment by Doppler Carol — February 15, 2012 @ 7:29 am
The upper-level impulse that would create the weekend storm is over the continental U.S. this morning. It’s the yellow/orange swirl over Oregon and northern California on the initialization map of this 500-millibar map from the latest GFS run:
http://tinyurl.com/73dkf2x
That is projected to dig down to the Baja California area and then swing eastward into the Gulf of Mexico.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 15, 2012 @ 7:55 am
Under a fog advisory this am and the entire 13 mile trip from the Chapel to Abingdon was thick, thick fog. Ice was all over my car as it froze last night. Predicting 50′s for today. NWS is saying rain Sunday and a rain/snow mix Sunday night and a high of 47. Channel 11 in Johnson City is saying 50′s on Saturday with rain Saturday nite turning to snow with a high of 36 Sunday. Back to the 50′s Monday. Tune in Monday morning and I will give all an accurate report of what happened.
Comment by Chapel Guy — February 15, 2012 @ 8:01 am
From Kevin’s #23 comments above…
That little impulse is gonna drop some snow over the Sierras first before coming east. Tahoe region expecting 12-18″ from this Upper feature. The Sierras are seriously hurting for snow. You thought we had issues. My favorite ski resort Heavenly @ Tahoe is almost bare. Just some FYI.
Back to the skies to sunny Florida today, Halifax, NS on Thursday & back home Friday PM. Will check back in this PM @ the hotel. I hope Tom Bodette leaves the light on this time.
FYI…Doug, potential event for weekend is Miller “A”…If it gets right, it may be Miller “A+”
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 15, 2012 @ 8:39 am
I keep hoping to see the KMSDPM.
That’s the Kevin Myatt Snow Depth Probability Map for those of you that don’t know. When I see that and it’s %’s, I’ll start getting excited for snow! Until then, I’ll sit tight.
Comment by scott p — February 15, 2012 @ 8:42 am
Kevin, many times over the years I have seen Henry Margusity on accuweather comment about storms entering on the pacific coast exit on the east coast at about the same lattitude. I am not sure how often he was not right, but it seems he was often right. As for the beer, it has already been noted that to see snow you head for the mountains. So,head for the mountains, head for Busch beer. I suspect at least a few of you are old enough to remember that one.
Comment by Trevar — February 15, 2012 @ 8:50 am
Quags, thanks for your 8:39 AM comment. I had one at the end of the previous thread for you …. a strictly nice one, I think. And I am seriously doubting that Sunday’s (or Monday’s) event has any potential to be a “Miller A+” for most of SW Virginia, which I would define as a gigantic snowstorm that spreads at least a foot of snow (and well over a foot in quite a few locations) throughout SW Virginia. That has happened only once in my 15 winters here …. Dec. 18-19, 2009. The other two snows that dumped about 9 inches inches in Roanoke later that winter were very impressive, but I wouldn’t call either one an A+, just an A. If indeed they were both Miller A storms (Kevin has already mentioned that the 2nd of those 2, the one on Feb. 5-6, was one). But then again, my definition is strongly influenced by coming from a much snowier climate, eastern Mass., where we got two 21-inch+ snowfalls within 3 weeks of each other in midwinter 1978.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 15, 2012 @ 9:45 am
I know its before 12 on a weekday but ole buddy Trevar got me thinkin about them Busch commercials with all that snow. Reckon ill warm up the ole monte carlo and ride down to the village mart and pick me up a 12 of some Busch, good thinkin there buddy! 39 degreese on the back porch and clear up here down in Willis this mornin. Skunks are out and about too. Yall have a goodin!
Comment by Richard Sampson in Willis, Va — February 15, 2012 @ 9:48 am
Thanks for that info Doppler Carol. I’ll have to download that at home so I can find my elevation. If you start up a gardening blog, I definitely want to know. My parents and sister grow a HUGE garden every year. My mom was complaining about all the rain, saying that we needed the snow instead so it would slowly melt into the ground vs the rain that continually seems to be running off. It won’t be long and my dad will be ready to get his lettuce bed going and his early onions.
I’ve been keeping up with DT on facebook on this storm also and he says that the 0Z GFS (at least I believe I’m correct) is bascially nuts and not to believe it.
Comment by Shanon "Nurse Snow" — February 15, 2012 @ 9:55 am
Jan 29-30 2010 snow was an overrunning event, lots of moisture forced into very cold air. Feb 5-6 was a Miller A. Feb 28, 2005, (6-12 inches) was another Miller A, kinda similar in setup to this weekend, potentially.
I see little chance of widespread 12-plus with this weekend’s storm. Unlikely to be deep enough or turn up coast far enough.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 15, 2012 @ 10:00 am
Hey, there have been several comments about gardening recently. I just bought the 2012 Old Farmer’s Almanac (“OFA”), and it is loaded with stuff on that subject. Most of you long-time, expert gardeners almost certainly know everything that is there, and maybe even “then some.” But if anyone wants me to post some stuff from it, I am eager and willing to help. There is even a very brief article on pg. 228 about when to plant what types of vegetables, flowers, and bulbs according to whether (not “weather”) the moon is waxing (getting bigger) or waning. And some of you expert gardeners may want to state whether such guidelines have any merit at all, or are just folklore in your mind. I am off work today (simply my non-scheduled day), and am as healthy as this beaten-down 60-year-old body allows …. I delivered the monster yesterday without any problems (weather was a big plus).
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 15, 2012 @ 10:38 am
My parents stick by the almanac when planting certain veggies, especially cucumbers. Apparently if you plant them in the “wrong sign” they will only bloom and not produce fruit. There are a lot of superstitions that go into planting gardens!
I’ve become the weather guru here at the school thanks to this blog
Comment by Shanon "Nurse Snow" — February 15, 2012 @ 11:10 am
Trevar, I was about to post the same thing regarding entrance/exit latitudes. If this “storm” is entering the west at Ore./Calif. border, then the exit would be Conn./Mass. Hope it makes the turn in southern Alabama and helps pull down cold air while running along the coast.
Comment by JC — February 15, 2012 @ 11:20 am
Hey, Shanon, I just tried to phone you through your workplace, and was stymied at every turn. Couldn’t even leave a message. I downloaded Google Earth after a similar comment by the wonderful Doppler Carol a couple of months ago, and love it. I was going to call you and offer to look up your elevation if you would simply give me the nearest intersection to your home. You can look me up in any telephone directory and call me before 1:30 if you are interested, or try me late this afternoon.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 15, 2012 @ 12:09 pm
Leo Hirsbrunner and Kimberly McBroom just came on News at Noon on “7″ and announced that the spring forest fire season begins today. I was very worried last year at this time, because ROA (especially) was in an extreme winter drought. But to the joy of probably all of us, things got very wet starting on 2-24-11. Rainfall totals for ROA: 1.81 last 5 days of FEB, 4.23 inches in MAR, 5.19 inches in APR. Blacksburg was a tiny bit wetter overall: 2.33, 4.38, and 5.19 for those three time periods. So even though conditions are a bit better now (vs. 2-15-11) in terms of the upcoming fire season (ends April 30), we have to be aware that without any snow on the ground, we need rains or snows over the next 76 days. Leo indicated that 2008 was the last bad spring fire season here.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 15, 2012 @ 12:24 pm
GFS looking better at 12pm today. Still too warm at the start. If it would follow that model but go 100 miles east along the coast to bring the cold air in faster..WOW.
Kevin am I right? Or do I just think I know what Im talkin about.
Comment by Pistol Pete — February 15, 2012 @ 12:29 pm
Well it’s looking warm. Not really good for anyone except maybe Bath County.
Comment by zach — February 15, 2012 @ 12:29 pm
OK I will watch this one, but if it’s a no show (or snow haha) I will stick a fork in the winter. Ready for Baseball weather, come on Todd SW I know your with me.
Comment by Keith — February 15, 2012 @ 1:18 pm
Hey Doug, you aren’t the first person to say they had problems with the phones over here today. Occasionally they act crazy and no one can get through. Don’t know what is up with that. I’ll be home around 4 and then I can download Google Earth on my home computer. I don’t have “administrative” rights to do it on the work computer LOL.
Anyone notice that now DT is saying snow goes north of us?
Comment by Shanon "Nurse Snow" — February 15, 2012 @ 1:44 pm
Hey guys forget this storm! Look at what Henry M. from Accuweather is talking about next week! The first possible negative tilt storm of the year and maybe a blizzard for most of Virginia! If that verified this weekend thing would look like a baby! Think the time frame would be the 23 or 24! Maybe we can have a blizzard on the 24th for my little girls birthday! Cool present for sure!
Comment by Jared French — February 15, 2012 @ 2:23 pm
wait, DT’s new post is going by the EURO I believe and he says snow in W and SW VA. All this flip-flopping is giving me anxiety issues LOL. I just NEED snow!
Comment by Shanon "Nurse Snow" — February 15, 2012 @ 2:24 pm
I don’t dare get the least bit excited, or head to the store for milk, eggs, (we make our own bread), and beer…do I?
Comment by TinaB in Montgomery Co. who is sick of these stupid practically snowless winters for some of us — February 15, 2012 @ 2:32 pm
Throw out the GFS, it’s having issues, per HPC.
Comment by Ice storm lover — February 15, 2012 @ 2:50 pm
The GFS is on its own with that far inland track. The fork will be stuck in this system (for snow, that is) IF (big if) the GFS is close to right. It doesn’t have a lot of support though. The HPC was entirely discounting the 0Z version of the GFS today (which is why their products have a storm almost missing us to the south.)
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 15, 2012 @ 2:52 pm
Looks like Ice Storm Lover and I were saying just about the same thing at the same time about the HPC throwing out the GFS.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 15, 2012 @ 2:56 pm
Cold air in place, but no moisture. Therefore, no snow.
Moisture in place, but no cold air. Therefore, no snow.
Rinse. Repeat.
The winter of 2011-2012.
Comment by Tom — February 15, 2012 @ 2:58 pm
Getting my umbrella ready for Sunday like always lol
Comment by Alex — February 15, 2012 @ 2:59 pm
With reference to Jared’s post:
Just FYI, I rarely go by the OFA, but this is what they had predicted for February: It’s interesting to say the least. The only reason I thought of this is that there’s a guy in my office who keeps saying that the OFA predicts 41″ of snow in late February. Generally I think this guy is crazy.
February 2012
12th-15th. Light snow, then fair skies.
16th-19th. Unsettled.
20th-23rd. Heavy wet snow sweeps up through Mid-Atlantic across the rest of Northeast, 12+” possible; then fair, cold.
Interesting, no? Scientific? I’m not so sure.
Comment by scott — February 15, 2012 @ 3:19 pm
What is really there to force cold air down east of the apps? I’m just going to expect rain and if something else happens, that’s cool too.
Comment by Alex — February 15, 2012 @ 3:25 pm
Kevin if the Southern Track holds ( Which I think it will ) do you think the cold air will be sufficient for snow over My neck of the woods ?
Comment by zach — February 15, 2012 @ 3:32 pm
New discussion out of NWS Blacksburg
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY…
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS ON SUNDAY WITH THE
SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS…BUT NOT AS SLOW AND
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CANADIAN. RECOMMENDATION OF HPC TO TREND TOWARD
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE ECMWF WILL BE FOLLOWED. NOT MUCH WARMUP
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER…PRECIPITATION AND THE
SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURE PROFILE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING STILL QUESTIONABLE BUT MAY SUPPORT
SNOW OR A WINTER MIX. DETAILS WILL NOT BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST
UNTIL THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
Comment by Alex — February 15, 2012 @ 3:41 pm
Pulled off two new12Z Euro images for Sunday morning and Monday morning:
http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/files/2012/02/Euro12ZSunAM0215.gif
http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/files/2012/02/Euro12ZMonAM0215.gif
Fairly unusual, at least in recent years, to see a low like this just keep running NE off of Hatteras. Track is very favorable for snow in our area; would be widespread 6-plus storm with LAST WEEKEND’s Arctic air. (See Tom’s poignant 2:58 p.m. comment.) This weekend, cold air is not optimum.
If this storm exactly mimicked the 12Z Euro, probably some front end rain transitioning to mix and snow on the back side from west to east. Euro often has a slight bias to being too warm so would expect it to be somewhat colder than shown. Even on Sunday morning the blue colors for 0c/32F at 850 mb are only north as far as I-64 corridor.
No fork yet.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 15, 2012 @ 3:50 pm
re: New discussion out of NWS Blacksburg
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY…
intwusting, very, very intwusting.
Kevin, That’s as far out on a limb that the NWS will go 3 to 4 days out. Correct?
Comment by Todd in SW City — February 15, 2012 @ 3:56 pm
I’m so confused. I don’t know how to read models. Kevin – just put it in “stupid street” terms for me. How much of a chance is there for snow this weekend? and if we do get it….how much in Christiansburg / NRV? I’m a bottomline kind of guy.
Comment by Brian — February 15, 2012 @ 3:57 pm
So right now we are looking at any outcome from a rainstorm to snow to missing the storm south and east. Do you think it will still be a couple more days until the models get a good handle on the storm?
Comment by Roa10 — February 15, 2012 @ 4:04 pm
The NWS just got a bit colder for the Wytheville Sunday forecast.
Sunday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Comment by Rick — February 15, 2012 @ 4:15 pm
When DT comments like this on Facebook and Larry Cosgrove backs him up, you have my attention:
Wxrisk.com
*** ALERT *** ALERT ***12z EUROPEAN MODEL ENSEMBLE SHOW SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER ALL OF WESTERN and NORTH VA MD Northern DE .. and IMPLIES Moderate snow into PHILLY and southern and central NJ… IN short the 12z euro ensemble MEAN Low position is close to 12z GFS Ensemble Burt s and e of the 12 Z UKMET
Larry Cosgrove: Agree strongly with dave’s comments here…but would also mention that 500MB means are about 300 mi NW of op Euro model, and that is a jump.
Comment by Betsy — February 15, 2012 @ 4:17 pm
I think it’ll be Saturday morning before we have a decently clear idea on this.
There is no bottom line to be had this far out. But my best guess — and it’s only a guess, based on the pattern, history, etc. — would lean to mostly rain with snow working down from higher elevations at the end. Some accumulation above 2,500 feet, slushy stuff on grass below that. Very much a guess, Very subject to change. Primarily thinking about US 460 corridor on this, Blacksburg-Roanoke and nearby areas.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 15, 2012 @ 4:18 pm
The newest GFS (18Z) has the low going just about smack overhead. No snow from that track! Still weirdly west and north of where the other guidance is, and no sign of coming back to the pack yet. Is it on to something, or just freaking out?
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 15, 2012 @ 5:58 pm
Reporting live from Jacksonville, FL…
Just settling in for a bit before dinner. Looks like I missed a little action while I was up in the sky today.
I’ll absorb it all in & get back later this evening & give a “PRELIMINARY FIRST GUESS MAP.”
For those of you who want a hint of where I really lean with this…
I’ll let the Euro & Ukkie show the way.
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 15, 2012 @ 6:01 pm
18Z GFS is having acid reflux from the 12Z GFS run. I think it still has some of the errors from that run on this one. It’s way too far west IHMO.
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 15, 2012 @ 6:03 pm
Get that model an antacid!
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 15, 2012 @ 6:07 pm
By the way … it hit 60 in Roanoke today.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 15, 2012 @ 6:10 pm
18Z GFS ENSEMBLE
http://i42.tinypic.com/25fiy68.gif/IMG
Comment by Alex — February 15, 2012 @ 6:12 pm
What Alex posted is an average compilation of multiple runs of the GFS from the same data that goes into the 18Z. It spits out an “operational run” that is its main output, the one I sometimes pull a frame or two from, then the various “ensembles” that could be considered alternate solutions.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 15, 2012 @ 6:24 pm
GEFS individual members.. almost all look good.
http://i41.tinypic.com/2ykx7hl.gif
Comment by Alex — February 15, 2012 @ 6:26 pm
Alex’s 6:26 pm post was a chart showing each of those possible scenarios I referred to earlier.
Looking at those, I count 6 of 12 showing potential for significant snowfall in SW Virginia. Not bad 4 days out. Many of the rest, though, do show an inland track with our area getting absorbed into a dry slot after the rain. A couple show it missing south or barely scraping us.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 15, 2012 @ 6:36 pm
I don’t think it’ll go as far west as the GFS is thinking. Hopefully it corrects itself. Going to be interesting to see the 00z tonight.
Comment by Alex — February 15, 2012 @ 6:38 pm
The HPC has us barely getting 0.10 in. of precip on days 4-5.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95e00p48iwbg_fill.gif
A very narrow band for sure. How accurate is that amount this far out? If it is correct, cold air wouldn’t make much difference with that little bit of moisture.
Comment by Mark in Pulaski — February 15, 2012 @ 6:41 pm
HPC discounted the GFS when it updated, so it was going with a southern slider with that update, so don’t put much stock in it yet at all..
Comment by Alex — February 15, 2012 @ 6:44 pm
The HPC precipitation map makers are obviously throwing out the GFS entirely, which paints us with about an inch of mostly rain. They’re painting general totals pulled out of wildly divergent model solutions. Until there is more model agreement, this will represent more of a best guess than a specific forecast. What the map shows, though, is within the realm of possibility.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 15, 2012 @ 6:50 pm
I think I’ll simply sign off and not look at the blog again til Sunday. I’ll look out the window. The most accurate blog there is. And as far as what falls/happens, who gives a rats. DONE!!!!!
Comment by wdbrand — February 15, 2012 @ 8:17 pm
Meanwhile, back to earlier today. I did some errands today, but managed about an hour of fun in there around 3 PM. Instead of the now famous, “MUST .. HAVE.. SNOW” or “I NEED SNOW,” with me it has been “MUST HAVE SN … ER, GOLF!!!” And I finally got to play 9 very short holes at Brookside, the basic pitch-and-putt course off of Williamson Rd. NE. But it was still hitting the little white ball with a golf club. Shoulder relented enough to let me hit high irons. It was great. And the weather was boffo. First golf holes I have played since late October, I think. And just like my first round last year, I was red-hot with the putter. When it doesn’t really count. Why can’t I have more rounds like that in mid-season?
OOPS, we have a word from the producer. “We apologize for this interruption. Now back to our regularly scheduled programming of MODELI ETERNI (I think that would be the Latin for “Models Eternal”)
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 15, 2012 @ 8:49 pm
I wonder if wd will be back here tomorrow …. I am somewhat in synch with his attitude. But as for his “who gives a rat,” obviously many of you give a lot of the little rodents when it comes to what the models are indicating. By the way, clearly WDBJ7 is “modeling” their weathercasts guided by what the HPC has been indicating. They are mentioning the possibility of some very light cold rain or snow on Sunday in SW Virginia, and covering their butts by saying that they will monitor the situation. But they are showing “flight path” so to speak that keeps the low well south of us and basically heading out to sea, although on a bit more northerly heading than what they indicated yesterday. FYI
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 15, 2012 @ 8:56 pm
Well whatever it does for our weather, the system that will affect our weekend is at least putting some snow on the very parched mountains of southern California this evening.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 15, 2012 @ 9:06 pm
I don’t think I could go that long without looking at the blog, even in a week with no events on the horizon. I’m addicted and proud of it.
Comment by Roa10 — February 15, 2012 @ 9:06 pm
I’m right there with you, Roa10. Now that my big work event has passed, I’m up for whatever snow we can ring out of any pitiful system that gets anywhere close to us!
Comment by Marimbist — February 15, 2012 @ 9:15 pm
Spent the entire day outside. At one time the thermometer was saying 63F. Weeded one flower bed and pulled all of the dead leaves etc off of the plants. The daylilies have little shoots popping through the ground. I also pruned the roses and they have buds swelling up on the tips. My tarragon is sending up shoots; the iris are growing and of course the daffodils are up.
Yep that magic number – anything above 2500 feet will see snow. Why do they say 2500 feet? ( I am at 2546 feet).
Currently 44 F in the backyard. Hitting the sack for the evening. Used some muscles that haven’t been used all winter so feeling it.
Comment by Doppler Carol — February 15, 2012 @ 9:20 pm
Thanks Roa10 for your support (and wd, too, whether he’s on the blog tomorrow or not!)
A difficulty we are having on the blog is that the audience is large enough that it is diverse in its expectations. Some want to really pick apart the models, and some help do that, while some don’t care or don’t want that. Others want more of a summarized synopsis, or want to compare forecasts of various media outlets, or just want a straightforward “forecast” (which really isn’t the purpose of the blog, it’s about weather discussion). It’s a good problem to have, because it means lots of folks are interested. But sometimes the discussion on the blog goes down a certain path that others don’t find particularly appealing.
It’s the nature of tracking storm systems that there is lots of confusion and back-and-forth especially during the 2-6-day period beforehand, with lots of different pieces of data and experts’ opinions sometimes pointing in different directions. The Internet and social media have made what was once the exclusive domain of weather professionals available to the general public — which is a very good thing for a weather blogger.
Moderating all this can be as confusing as the weather. So hang in there, everyone. This storm system, like all others before it, will be here and past in the real atmosphere before you know it.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 15, 2012 @ 9:22 pm
I just had the iPad in my left hand reading this blog, and my android phone in my right hand checking on DT’s Facebook page. I guess that means I have a serious addiction.
I have never waited up for the Euro, however.
Comment by Jason in Riner — February 15, 2012 @ 9:22 pm
Honestly, Jason, neither have I. I’m just fine seeing it when the sun comes up.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 15, 2012 @ 9:29 pm
Chilling out here in Fairfax…literally, having to run the AC in the hotel…in February. The trip up here stayed pretty well in the upper 50′s the whole way until I got east of Front Royal when it started dropping off as it got dark. Looks like a fair bit of rain here tomorrow, which will make it a bit challenging for work, but that’s just how it goes.
As for the weekend, as long as whatever happens waits until Sunday, I don’t rightly mind. I’ll be back up here all day Saturday for work, and I really don’t want to drive in any weather. If it won’t snow, I really hope we get a solid shot of rain to make up for the current deficit we’re running.
Comment by Other John — February 15, 2012 @ 9:29 pm
Is Thursday’s rain/system a “set up player” at all for potential snow this weekend? What/Where do we want this Low to do/go to increase snow chances or is it a nonfactor?
Comment by Todd in SWcity — February 15, 2012 @ 9:42 pm
Quagmire – when will you post your “preliminary first guess map”?
Comment by Blacksburg Mike — February 15, 2012 @ 9:42 pm
Todd: Yes it is. That is the low that ends up near Newfoundland and helps slow/redirect the upper flow behind it to allow the second system to form a low in the Gulf.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 15, 2012 @ 9:52 pm
New NAM in range finally. This is gonna be real close, but I think it’s got the right idea. But will it be cold enough at the surface? I have my doubts.
Comment by Ice storm lover — February 15, 2012 @ 9:55 pm
Completely agree with your #80 post, Kevin. And the thing that makes this storm even more frustrating for snow lovers, is the fact that this is our best chance of snow so far this winter, and there also is a good chance that we may not have another good shot at snow until next season after this weekend. The past two winters both advertised many chances of snow even if many didn’t actually happen, making this winter a drastic change.
Comment by Roa10 — February 15, 2012 @ 9:59 pm
Ice storm lover: That’s moving in basically pre-dawn hours and sunrise on the NAM. Perfect timing to maximize cooling at the surface. It would be a wet snow but I think if that verifies you’re in business. The 0C 850mb line (freezing about a mile up, often the approximate boundary of the rain/snow line) actually moves into NC.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 15, 2012 @ 10:00 pm
When I was a kid living in Pulaski, our source of weather forecasts were the local TV stations. Channels 7 and 10. That’s it, no cable. We did have a hometown radio station, WPUV AM. My father would joke that their weather forecast consisted of sliding the studio window open, looking out, and doing a “live” update utilizing a promotional thermometer (Kern’s bread maybe) and a barometer someone had gotten for Christmas.
We also had the local newspaper that ran a small weather story each day (although they didn’t publish on Saturday, so you had to guess the weather for Sunday)
Comment by Mark in Pulaski — February 15, 2012 @ 10:01 pm
It seems it’s trying to do a Miller B, am I correct? You’re correct on the timing being perfect. But I can’t get too excited yet, although it seems possible even a few more inches would accumulate after the 84 hour if the NAM were correct.
Comment by ice storm lover — February 15, 2012 @ 10:04 pm
It originates in the western Gulf on the NAM, I would still call that a Miller A. A little bit of an overrunning kind of look, too, with moisture riding over the cold air sinking southward.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 15, 2012 @ 10:06 pm
I’m just trying to learn from you guys. Looking at the 0Z NAM 2m temps. it looks to me like the temp. never gets below freezing. Why would the 850 temp matter if the surface temp is above freezing?
Comment by Mark in Pulaski — February 15, 2012 @ 10:17 pm
It can snow at the surface up to 40 degrees or so under the right conditions. And if that happens, the dynamic/evaporational cooling would likely be sufficient to pull the temperature down to at least the 32-33 range at the surface, if not a little colder. A surprising amount of wet snow can accumulate at 33 or 34 degrees if it’s snowing hard enough.
That blue line on the 2m temps tells you where the model is showing 32 or lower at the surface, but it doesn’t tell you how much above 32 it is at those locations. And I often find the surface temp lags behind on the models when it’s precipitating out of a colder air mass aloft — especially 3 1/2 days away.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 15, 2012 @ 10:20 pm
Having said that, I’ve noticed the NAM seems to have a cold bias so far this winter.
It’s looking better, but a lot can still go wrong (and probably will)
Comment by ice storm lover — February 15, 2012 @ 10:27 pm
Yes, it has been too cold on some previous situations, ISL, and besides that, it’s usually not a very good model outside of 48 hours.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 15, 2012 @ 10:33 pm
I LOVE Google Earth
My elevation is 1157ft. Thank you Doppler Carol and thank you Doug for trying to call me today to help me out with it. I guessed below 1300ft, so I wasn’t too far off LOL
DT just posted the NAM and it has the rain/snow line south of us. I don’t know about the preciptiation or amounts coming in though.
Comment by Shanon "Nurse Snow" — February 15, 2012 @ 10:41 pm
Quick question Kevin. With a run like the 0z nam that looked quite good for our area, why does the snowfall “clown map” have all the snow north of our area, even though the actual run had the freezing line well below us. Is it the surface temps prohibiting any snow on this run?
Comment by Roa10 — February 15, 2012 @ 10:52 pm
I think you answered your own question — or Mark in Pulaski did. Whatever alogrithm that map is using to figure snowfall doesn’t allow it where the 2m or surface temp is shown to be above 0C/32F. A very literal intepretation that doesn’t account for (1) elevation differences that would almost certainly allow some snow on higher ridgetops even if it didn’t make it to lower elevations and (2) the likelihood of dynamic and evaporational cooling to drop temperatures in the lower layer of the atmosphere.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 15, 2012 @ 10:57 pm
Actually … looking a little closer at that map, it does show some higher elevations farther south with significant snow:
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=FCX
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 15, 2012 @ 11:01 pm
Quag’s Preliminary First Guess Map
Here it is…my first guess
Between 0″ and 36″ will fall in Virginia this weekend.
Told ya it was preliminary…
Will post the real deal shortly after I look at the 0Z GFS
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 15, 2012 @ 11:16 pm
0Z GFS is actually colder than a lot of models — a little bit of cold air damming showing up. But it looks like it’s going to take the low on that same inland path its predecessors did. Only out to 75 hours so far.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 15, 2012 @ 11:19 pm
00z Hour 84
http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-18864-1329365598_thumb.jpg
Comment by Alex — February 15, 2012 @ 11:21 pm
0Z GFS SCORES WITH HUGE HIT FOR VIRGINIA FOR MAJOR SNOW!!!!
GAME ON!!! REPEAT….GAME ON SNOW LOVERS!!!! REMOVE THE FORK!!!!
More shortly
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 15, 2012 @ 11:21 pm
00z Hour 87
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20120216/00/gfs_namer_087_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
Comment by Alex — February 15, 2012 @ 11:22 pm
You’re looking at something different than I’m looking at, Quag, except maybe northern Virginia.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 15, 2012 @ 11:24 pm
Forget the NAM at 84 hours…It’s underdone.
Sorry Sammy, I’m afraid the Winter family will not be calling to reserve the North Chapel Parlor after all.
Sweet Spot is Western & Central VA and Eastern WV 8-12″ minimum
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 15, 2012 @ 11:24 pm
GFS is another disaster run for Roanoke. Not surprised. And I won’t be surprised when it rains this weekend.
Comment by Brandon R. — February 15, 2012 @ 11:25 pm
You (Quag) must be extrapolating based on the track of the low, because the 0C 850 line barely gets into western Virginia when the precip is wrapping up. It does look to be a little too far west based on the low going more into Tidewater rather than over central VA.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 15, 2012 @ 11:28 pm
Wow 00z NAM looks great, and the 00z GFS is looking better!
Comment by Alex — February 15, 2012 @ 11:28 pm
How many different interpretations can we get on one model run?
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 15, 2012 @ 11:28 pm
Lol why is everyone getting excited? The GFS shows rain. Discard the wraparound, the mountains will block that from ever getting here.
Comment by Ice storm lover — February 15, 2012 @ 11:31 pm
From US 460 corridor northward is good for a major snow now. Ignore the 850 line on this GFS run. It is too far north by 30 miles. 540 line is good. It will be warm at onset, then wet bulb & evaporational cooling sets in and BLAMO! Just like the ’93 SOTC (Storm of the Century). Warm to cold. The column will quickly cool for perfect Detri. formation
0Z Euro will come in colder.
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 15, 2012 @ 11:32 pm
I am going to start a new thread in a short while just to start things over again. We’ve crossed 100 comments.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 15, 2012 @ 11:32 pm
Oh, Lord help us, he’s at it again. “GAME ON, SNOW LOVERS!!” He’s changing his mind for 53rd time this winter. Go, Quags, go. ……… By the way, did you take your medicine this evening? LOL Sam Oakey, I wouldn’t cancel the funeral arrangements for Monday quite yet. There is still time for GQ to change his mind AT LEAST 3 more times before Saturday night, when all of us should have a pretty good idea of what is likely to happen.
Rejoice Kevin …. GQ’s 11:21 comment ensures many blog comments. It would be better if he made it again in the morning.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 15, 2012 @ 11:35 pm
I agree Quag, it’s looking better for snow in Roanoke/Lynchburg/Charlottesville than any run before, IMO.
Comment by Alex — February 15, 2012 @ 11:37 pm
I see a few things on the GFS that are interesting — the track of the low going more toward Tidewater rather than crossing central or even western VA like previous runs, some signal of cold air damming before the storm gets here. I don’t see it as a “disaster” for snow lovers nor do I yet see it as a “big hit” — at least yet, on either score. And again, it is the GFS that has been positively loopy today, and still more than 3 days out.
The game isn’t on … nor is it over.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 15, 2012 @ 11:38 pm
What we seem to have here is a clash between literal interpretation of what the model actually shows vs. interpolation of what it seems to be trending toward.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 15, 2012 @ 11:41 pm
will update on next thread….I’m basing my observations on the fact that I believe the 0Z Euro & UK will be colder than this GFS run. Still think this GFS run is too warm from hours 78-90. Yeah, I know I’ve been wrong before too.
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 15, 2012 @ 11:43 pm
New Thread not up yet….
Guess what the 0Z Canadian and 0Z Ukkie have to say?
UKMET is colder.
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 16, 2012 @ 12:02 am
So can someone gimme a run down ? I’m so confused cause I have read so many different things. Particulary Carroll County is where I’m interested in ahaha
Comment by zach — February 16, 2012 @ 12:05 am
How’s this? The Ukkie at 72 hours….I’ll post the other in a minute…
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&hh=072&comp=1&runb=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=006&fixhh=1
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 16, 2012 @ 12:10 am
Zach: NAM clown map looks good for snow in Carroll County:
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=FCX
You’ll get about 5 different versions of the rundown if you ask for it!
New thread up soon. I’m not being very definitive on anything yet. Maybe something a little more that way by Thursday evening/Friday morning.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 16, 2012 @ 12:11 am