Mild close to February likely to conclude 2011-12 winter as Roanoke’s second warmest
Quickly crunching some numbers on this Sunday evening, it appears that Roanoke is likely to record its second warmest winter for the 101 years of its official weather records — trailing only 1931-32, which is in a league of its own for balmy winters, and will remain so by more than 3 degrees — IF temperatures are close to those forecasted by the National Weather Service for Monday through Wednesday. February needs to average at least 43.85 degrees — which rounds up to 43.9 — to pull 2011-12 into at least a tie for second place with 1948-49. (List of 10 warmest winters linked here.) A couple of slightly below-normal temperature days this weekend have pulled the month’s average temperature back down a bit to 43.5 degrees through 26 days. But if the projected high/low of 62/34, 58/38 and 66/43 verify for the last 3 days of meteorological winter (Dec.-Jan.-Feb.), February’s average temperature vaults to 44.2 degrees (which would make for the 7th warmest February!) and the winter’s average finishes at 43.2, one-tenth of a degree above 1948-49. In an odd statistical twist, it could well be the extra day on the calendar — Feb. 29, “leap” day — that makes the difference.
Monday appears dry, but rain and clouds ahead of an advancing warm front could dampen the temperature some on Tuesday. We should be in a stiff southwest flow ahead of a cold front by Wednesday, and much like Thursday and Friday of this past week, that could push the temperatures into the mid 60s or even higher on the last day of February. Wednesday’s front, pulled through by the powerhouse 
low I wrote about Friday that will tighten in the Nebraska/Iowa area, may provide enough lift for yet more late winter thunderstorms — severe weather will be at least a possibility — but it will not be strong enough to do much to the temperatures behind it. A new low-pressure system forming near the Great Lakes will quickly return winds to the southwest late in the week, and temperatures may make a run at 70 again by Friday. Another cold front gets pulled through over the weekend as that low tracks north and west of us. That may yank some colder air south from Canada for another brief cold (or at least “somewhat colder”) surge, perhaps by Sunday or so. Timing remains a little murky on that.
February 26, 2012 - 6:02 PM
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The Oscar for Best Weather Blogger goes to – - – - – drum roll- – - – - Kevin Myatt!
(Standing ovation and applause)
There the possibility of cold weather returning about the 15th of March with some wintery weather possible. This early warm weather may in turn cause us to pay a weather price later. I know some people prefer the warm to the cold but this winter is not normal and things in nature need somewhat normal temperatures to deliver the four seasons most all enjoy. Yesterday was extremely windy and cold today was much better and allowed some work to take place outside that was much needed. Hope everyone has a safe and happy upcoming week
Much appreciated, Doppler Carol.
I’m sure I would be the biggest hick on the red carpet, though my graceful and elegant wife would make up for it.
I reckon your wife reads this blog also. Oh, you are a silver tounged salesman Mr. Myatt.
Just went outside to view the moon/planets/stars everybody has been talking about. I can’t see the excitement. Not a watch winder for sure.
Totally agree with your comment #2 Randy Oakey!
I have a feeling that this radical weather change got me sick over the weekend. I had a rather nasty sore throat. Luckily, I’m over it mostly. But if we just stayed cold, that probably wouldn’t have happened…or better yet, if we just stayed where winter should be, and not these outrageous 70s. Friday Morning was so weird.
Oh well, at least we got some snow last week. I mean honestly, the chances of this type of winter happening again should be pretty low. It shouldn’t be like this next year (I hope). This winter was a snow lover’s nightmare! Still hoping for that spring snow though…especially considering my birthday is in late March. Last year came close to snow. It was 80 on my birthday but 1-2 days later there was that significant snow that fizzled out cause of those thunderstorms stealing moisture to the south. Could’ve been 5-8 inches. Then, after that, there was a 1-3 inch clipper I believe that did provide. I think the theme for the 2010-2011 winter was the storms looked huge at first, then fizzled completely, but at the last second, they formed and gave us something more than expected when it was at its weakest stage.
Wdbrand..you might have gone out too late to see them,early evening right after sunset the best. Such a cool alignment of Venus ,Jupiter, and the moon That NASA put out a statement on Spaceweather.com. Don’t know how to post a link or I would do so…
wd, I can vouch for what clarkdoc said above. When I saw them on early Friday evening, I was very impressed.
31* here at 6:10 AM. Gorgeous pre-dawn colors along the eastern horizon. No wind.
Kevin, I hope your wife reads the blog because comment #3 will be HUGE brownie points.
Any connection between the warm 1932 Feb and the great Dust Bowl and nationwide drought of that Year??
Peppers Ferry: I would suspect the answer is yes, that it was connected to similar weather patterns. But I haven’t done an exhaustive study on it.
One thing I’m noting in some brief research about 31-32 is that the warm/dry winter was pervasive. It was New York City’s warmest winter. And Tulsa’s. And Milwaukee’s. Charleston and Huntington, W.Va., saw no measurable snow til March. For Chicago, March was its coldest month, the only time that’s ever happened there. Unusual problem with insects noted in Florida due to warm, dry weather in winter. Great Britain had no snow.
Roanoke had no snow in meteorological winter in 31-32 — but did get 6 inches in March.
I have a bad feeling that just as everything really starts blooming this year that we will get hit with a cold snap and more snow.
I agree with half of your comment, Nursey. I agree that either in late March or early April there will be a cold snap, but no measurable snow here in the Roanoke valley below 1700 feet elevation.
Speaking of the early 1930s, I believe I saw a chart in “State of Fear” … a graph from NOAA …. that 1934 was the warmest year of the 20th century, NOT 1999, even though 1999 got announced unofficially by some so-called experts. I am pretty sure that it was a one-hit wonder so to speak, because the 2nd warmest, 3rd warmest, and most of the top ten were in the 1990s. But perhaps a couple of other years in the 1930s were way up there, too. And I just googled Dust Bowl and found out that it was at its worst from 1930-36, although in some areas it lasted until 1940. Two biggest causes were severe drought and poor farming (specifically, soil conservation) techniques.
Si far, nothing is budding here on Da Knob fruit tree wise. Bradford pair, easter lillys and such are. All bets are off for next week tho with the temps that’s forecast.
Folks, 2011/2012 has come and gone for the most part and it has been a fine time on the ole blog. Great comments. great discussion. great questions asked that makes most of us wiser, weatherwise. Kept me hangin on for the latest comment many times. I just hope we don’t see any 100 comment days from here til next winter cause that will mean misery for somebody. The absolutely best blog on the internet. Thanks again to all the contributers. Oh, you didn’t do too shabby yourself Mr. Myatt.
Kevin: RE: Winter 1931-32 vis a vis 2011-12 . . .
Did you just describle this year nationwide?? I’m just a simple engineer but my 20 yr study of Everything Great Depression; I see a close parallel to the point of seeing a rerun of the Great Depression era. Weather, economics, moral, cultural, international. Of course you know about the Western drought. Looks almost identical to 1930-33. Same States. All we need is a dust bowl and locust plague from CA to MN. Dust falling in Boston and Chicago.
If you know the famous Depressiom Mother photo, she is sitting depressed with children and head in hand. There is a weather story there. She was looking for farm work in north LA, CA. The cabbage farm where she had hoped to work was frozen. How often do cabbage freeze in Los Angeles ??
I agree with Shanon “Nurse Snow” also. I can even quote a relevent scripture. :>)
Through the first 26 days of February, the mean ROANOKE temp for Feb. 2012 sits at 43.5 degrees. Today’s mean was only 46, so that did not provide much help in raising it to the magic 44.2 needed. An unexpectedly cold morning of 28 was the culprit. Tomorrow’s mean will probably be somewhere near 50, but that won’t raise it much, either. It will all come down to Wednesday. The tension mounts ….. I now think that the mean for 2-2012 will not attain the 44.2.
Oh, Nick, there is another disagreement for Roanoke’s high for tomorrow. WDBJ7 and the NWS are forecasting a Roanoke high of only 59 (clouds moving in in the mid-to late afternoon, they think) vs. 62 by WSLS-10 (at 5:45 PM, anyway) and 63 by The Weather Channel.
Very cold up here this morning low was 24.It warmed up to 62 this afternoon and it felt great!Now down to 41.I`m crashing,have a good night all.
1930-33 certainly bears some similarities to recent weather pattern, and that has been mentioned by some. Agricultural practices in the Plains states have changed, though, so that dust storms of the magnitude experienced then are not likely. This pattern is also similar to some of the 1950s, which had extreme drought in the central U.S. that led to some hotter than normal patterns.
This winter isn’t quite as warm and snowless on as widespread a basis as 31-32. There have been pockets of wintry weather — one of them landed over us weekend before this one. Also more Arctic intrusions, however brief. And much of Texas has actually gotten decent moisture this winter, not enough to break the drought, but perhaps some easing.
One interesting thing is that some of our mildest/least snowy winters often seem to occur about 2-3 years after cold/very snowy ones. More on that when I have time to develop it.
Good night, Mike (of Marshall). Hey, Mike, how much snow would you say you have received this season? Rick of Wytheville, and “Chapel Guy,” same question, please. Because the odds are that you all have received more than Boston has so far this season ….. 6.5 inches according to my Ipswich, MA sister, Susie. My “official” (AHEM!) total is 8 inches, which makes this the 2nd winter in the last three that I have received more than Beantown, I think {of course, despite what meteorologists may say, March is a truly winter month in Boston, so they are a whole lot more likely to get more snow compared to Roanoke}. ROA got about 43 in 2009-10, so I am pretty sure my total was very close to that (maybe a tiny bit higher, if anything), and I think I remember reading/hearing that the home of the Red Sox, Bruins, and Celtics got only 37 or so. Might be the only two times it has happened in the past 20, 30, who knows how many years.
Interesting read: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-17143269
Thoughts, Kevin, Doug, Quagmire, anyone? I felt “special” when I knew what the AO was (Mainly a result of reading this blog)!
Travis: I have read about the theory before linking lower Arctic sea ice concentration to cold air penetrating farther south. It makes sense physically but there probably haven’t been enough years of observation yet to establish a firm link.
If the North Atlantic Oscillation had ever flipped, as it does in the 80 percent of the cases when the Arctic Oscillation does, we would have had a much colder February than we did, maybe even extreme. Instead, Alaska and Europe, at different times, experienced the extreme cold.
Climate is extraordinarily complicated. Any efforts to simplify it to singular causes leading to to simple results is futile.
At my little corner of the earth in New River at about 1900′, we do have the primrose starting to bloom…it’s always the earliest bloom in our yard. The pear trees, daffodils, and a lot more look like they want to start soon. I’m looking to get a solid day in the yard and garden this week so I can clean up from the fall and little bit of winter we had, turn the mulch, rake out the leaves, and spray for ants…our perennial nemesis. With the yard as wet as it is, I might also finally be able to bury the corrugated drain line I have on our of our downspouts, which previously would wash out part of a gravel walkway during a heavy rain.
Travis, thanks for the link. I like Kevin’s response at 8:12 AM very much, especially his last two sentences. I would add that I read a couple of articles by scientists at least 15 years ago, perhaps even 20, stating that the Gulf Stream had already started moving further away (as in further west) from Ireland and the UK, also predicted that that trend would continue for the foreseeable future (at least 25-30 years, perhaps permanently), and that the British Isles could expect much colder, rougher winters. I don’t know if that (the 3rd prediction above) has actually happened, but my feeling is that it has. Several times since 2000 I have read that especially England has seen its biggest snowstorms in anyone’s lifetime, or something at least close to that rare an occurrence.
I don’t remember those older articles saying anything about the change in the flow pattern of the Gulf Stream being linked to a reduction in Arctic ice, but perhaps they did. I have another window open showing the BBC News article, and certainly the graph in the middle of the article showing the consistent overall reduction in Arctic sea ice is happening at the same time as the Gulf Stream change. It is too bad that the graph does not go back further in time than the late 1970s, because at least in the USA, temperatures were dropping from the late 1940s through the late 1970s, and especially so from abut 1958 through 1978 or 1979. If that chart in the article went back to about 1950, and showed the extent of sea ice growing from that point through some time in the mid- or late 1970s, I would be even more likely to agree with their hypothesis.
Oh, by the way, I AM NOT claiming that the (possibly) rougher winters in the British Isles is in any way a refutation of the theory of global warming. To me, it is a regional situation, separate from a global change. The reduction of sea ice coverage since the late 1970s IS a pretty strong case for global warming, I do not deny that. Like I said above, I would have loved to see what that graph would have shown for the previous 30 or 40 years before the late 1970s.