2012.02.01
UPDATE 8:40 AM: More 60s possible Thursday; 2 of 3 indicators pointing to colder pattern in coming weeks
UPDATE 8:40 AM: Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow this morning — meaning six more weeks of colder weather always being two more weeks away. END UPDATE
It looks like we may squeeze out another afternoon in the 60s on Thursday. A cold front will pass in the morning, but the air mass behind it is of Pacific origin, not Arctic, so it will only be a little cooler, and even that won’t be felt til night. Because it is pushing through in the morning, it will help clear the skies, allowing plentiful sunshine by afternoon for temperatures to push upward. The front’s effects will be Friday will be to knock us back a little, with highs in the 50s and lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s — still above-normal for early February. A weekend storm system may bring wintry precipitation as close as the Pennsylvania-Maryland line or so, but looks to be on a trajectory too far north, with little or no cold-air damming, to allow any colder air farther south. So likely more well-above-freezing rain showers in our neck of the woods, like tonight.
Looking out at the big picture — two of three major climate indexes we typically look at for signs of a colder pattern have switched solidly in that direction. The Arctic Oscillation is in a negative phase (note the blue “icicles” hanging below the 0 line) — cold air being allowed to push out from the North Pole, rather than being held in tight — and the Pacific-North America pattern is moving into a strongly positive phase (note the bars above the 0 line), which will bank high pressure into the western half of North America, rather than hanging it over the East as has happened much of this winter. That will allow cold air masses to slide more easily southward from Canada into the East. The third index, however, remains stuck in a non-wintry mode. The North Atlantic Oscillation doesn’t yet show signs of budging from its positive phase, which prevents high pressure from forming over Greenland to block the jet stream and lock it in a southerly-dipping mode that favors prolonged Arctic air masses and potential winter storm tracks in the East. Research has shown that about 80 percent of the time, the Arctic Oscillation 
and North Atlantic Oscillation end up going into a negative phase concurrently, so it may yet happen that the NAO follows the AO. If it does, depending somewhat on the exact placement of the blocking high in the northern Atlantic, we might get a really cold period with significant snow potential in the next few weeks. As it stands now, we are likely to have colder weather than we’ve seen lately — emphasizing the “er” part, colder than we’ve seen recently, not necessarily very cold — and a somewhat heightened chance of possible wintry precipitation episodes in the next couple of weeks. But without the blocking high over Greenland that comes with a negative phase of the NAO, the cold air surges won’t lock in, and the pattern as a whole will probably return to above normal temperatures later in the month.
It’s not too much hyperbole to say that the game is on the line for winter 2011-12 between now and Valentine’s Day or so. The way the pattern sets up during this period will likely determine if winter has a chance to make a late run of cold and snow, or whether it will probably fizzle out with barely a whimper. Even with a milder pattern a fluke wet snow is always possible into March or even April, but I think by Valentine’s Day we’ll pretty well know whether this has a strong chance to be the least snowy winter in history for Roanoke or if there is a fourth-quarter rally for snow fans.
For now, expect gradually cooling temperatures over the weekend and early next week before a sharp Arctic front arrives late Tuesday or early Wednesday with significantly colder air.
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Nick of Ellett Valley, are you out there? If so, please read my two comments near the end of the previous thread when I talk about my MVP and Vice President, Sam Oakey. In those two comments do I sound more like the crazy, old letter carrier who hates snow? :>) :>) :>)
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 1, 2012 @ 8:20 pm
Educate us, wd, what precisely would it mean if the Punx. groundhog has a “solid black wooly worm ridin on his back?” Lots of cold and snow? and would that wooly worm be related to the “Wooly Bully” that Sam the Sham and the Pharaohs (NO!!! Not Sam Oakey!) sang about? The link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4qNVm8yl-Sc
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 1, 2012 @ 8:26 pm
Oh-oh. Be careful about clicking onto that link. As with some youtube videos, there are some pretty vile comments in the comment section. But the most recent comment might make some of you chuckle. That performance is about 6 years older than Kevin, by the way, and sorry, Kevin-me-boy, but you’re no spring chicken. But you will always be 19 years younger than me ….
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 1, 2012 @ 8:38 pm
DT is still talking about the storm for next weekend, so my guess is that next weekend is do or die for us snow lovers! This has been a very depressing winter for snow lovers.
Comment by jared french — February 1, 2012 @ 9:57 pm
I wouldn’t say 1 storm system is do or die at this point for snow this season. But there is some real potential in that Feb. 9-12 window if some things come together.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 1, 2012 @ 10:39 pm
I think someone is smoking on something. TWC shows 50s all the way across next week with possible 58* on Tuesday. Not exactly an artic, sharp cool down going from 58* to 50*. They must not be ready to call it yet.
Comment by Mike — February 1, 2012 @ 11:12 pm
Doug, can I least talk about Victoria’s Secret models?
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 1, 2012 @ 11:13 pm
NOOOOOOO!!!!! I’ve been Captcha’ed!!!!!!! And I had a lengthy comment!
Hahahahaa Doug! Yes, you have returned to your former-self!
Speaking in lines of warm temps before snow, wasn’t 65 here 3 days before the big ‘un on DEc. 18-19, 2009, Kevin?
And I had a story of how odd and how amazed I was about the week of March 1, 2009. I’ll just say that I think we can all say we will probably never see anything like that again here for a while. I’m assuming that temperature swing is only possible in October, March, and April. It was such a weird week. 13 on Tuesday morning March 3rd 2009! With bad roads after snow fell Sunday night steadily to about 6 inches where I live. Normalcy on Wed and Thurs. Then, Friday I went to Roanoke. Started to get hot! Came back and on C-burg Mtn. it was 70 outside (from my car temp reading) and there was areas of crusty snow on the mtn. Then the next day was 82 here, but was so odd cause it was eerily quiet outside. You usually here lots of activities when it is that warm. Instead, very few birds were out, trees were all bare (except some of my bushes were budding), and there were no kids or adults outside that day. Very odd.
Comment by Nick in the Elett Valley — February 2, 2012 @ 1:37 am
Sharp may not be quite the right word, but it will be noticeable.
Highs drop from mid 50s Tuesday to mid 40s Wednesday(for Roanoke) on National Weather Service products, both from the local office and nationally.
What I think will end up happening is Tuesday’s high will be a little higher than the weather service projection — maybe closer to the 58 of TWC, or possibly even 60 — and Wednesday’s high will end up a little lower, more like upper 30s and lower 40s. There’s usually a lot of playing to the middle in mid-range forecasts due to model imprecision.
The important thing isn’t the exact drop in high temperatures on the first day of the front, which may be offset some by abundant sunshine, but that it will be an Arctic-origin air mass, not merely a Pacific front like today’s alleged “cold” front is. The drier, cold air moving in at all layers of the atmosphere will have the potential to pull temperatures downward a little more in subsequent days.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 2, 2012 @ 7:31 am
What are temps looking like for the weekend 10 thru 12? All the long range prognosticators have 50,s! Not very good temps if your wanting a nice snow storm!
Comment by jared french — February 2, 2012 @ 7:39 am
About to make a comment on that Jared.
A lot of overnight/morning models are much farther inland with the storm system late next week (the Feb. 9-12 system we’ve been discussing). If that solution is correct, it would tend to pull milder air in with it, with colder air settling in only behind the storm.
The missing blocking high over Greenland may be a big factor in that, not steering the system farther south.
If that factor is not in place or at least strong signals it is about to move into place by mid-month, that’s when I would start calling an end to having much chance of a true wintry period.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 2, 2012 @ 7:48 am
The lack of snow cover in many of the states north of us is another factor that is going to cause even the coldest air masses to modify some. Barring an extreme pattern shift I see very little chance of getting a prolonged pattern (even 3 days) of even 30s highs/teens lows. 40s highs, 20s lows (on sunny days, I mean) with some teens a night or two may the floor of what we can see unless there is a rather radical shift in the jet stream pattern.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 2, 2012 @ 7:55 am
I was surprised to see about 2.25 inches of rain in my gauge this morning.
Comment by Rachel in Knoxville — February 2, 2012 @ 7:58 am
Could it be possible for the NAO to go negative for the summer thus allowing the summer to be cooler then average. I would gladly exchange a snowstorm for that since it is tough going on us golf course supers during the heat of summer!
Comment by jared french — February 2, 2012 @ 8:01 am
Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow this morning — though I’m not sure there could really be six MORE weeks of winter when there’s been maybe 3 days collectively since the start of December that I would consider somewhat wintry. Even for Pennsylvania, a very mild winter so far, though they’ve had a little bit of snow (the biggest one in October in a lot of places).
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_GROUNDHOG_DAY?SITE=VAROA&SECTION=NATIONAL&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-02-02-07-52-18
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 2, 2012 @ 8:03 am
It is possible, Jared. The correlation, though, between the NAO and cooler summer weather is much less than it is with colder winter weather. The jet stream is already shifted farther north into Canada in most summers, so forcing it south doesn’t necessarily reach far enough south to cool us off. We tend to have cooler summers when the heat dome high sets up in the West and we’re on the east side of it, getting cold fronts from Canada — the PNA+ pattern.
A bigger concern is that if the NAO doesn’t flip to negative for a while now, it may happen in late March or April and lead to some freezes in what seems likely to be a very early budding/greening/blooming spring.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 2, 2012 @ 8:08 am
Greetings from up here on the ridge near the Doppler. The sun has been trying to break through the clouds this morning. It was 46 earlier this morning and we have had “0.19″ inches of rain.
I was reading last night about the severe weather in eastern Europe. Extremely cold temps in Poland, Ukraine and Turkey. It seems the cold air was coming out of Siberia. The article was also mentioning about ice on the Danube River.
I had typed a blog entry late yesterday afternoon but had to step away from the lap top and when I came back, I went to send the entry and it did not go through because “error on Captcha Code”. So I am thinking if you are on the comment section too long before you send the comment, that the Code gets ya!
Comment by Doppler Carol — February 2, 2012 @ 8:13 am
Yes, indeed Carol. Here is the link to a story about the extreme eastern European cold wave.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/world/european-cold-snap-death-toll-rises-to-71/story-e6frf7lf-1226260049789
Also preparing for a major blizzard the next couple of days is the central Plains in the U.S.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 2, 2012 @ 8:21 am
We got just 0.25″ of rain yesterday and overnight, on the low end of the prediction range. Another precipitation bust for my gauge. But it was better than the paltry 0.04″ in the previous system where around an inch was forecast.
As for the weather upcoming, I’m beginning to have some doubts about how much different things will be. Perhaps a tad cooler than we’ve been, but I’m thinking that given how this winter has gone, it’ll wind up as another tease of what winter should be, rather than giving us true winter weather for any extended time period. Power bills continue to be nice though, our most recent indicated 33% lower usage than last year.
Comment by Other John — February 2, 2012 @ 8:28 am
My latest blog update, in case you missed it up top:
Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow this morning — meaning six more weeks of colder weather always being two more weeks away.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 2, 2012 @ 8:37 am
If the colder pattern doesn’t set in in the next couple of weeks, I think this will end up as Roanoke’s second warmest winter on record. It won’t catch 1931-32 — it hasn’t been warm enough up til now and would have to be April-like warm from here on out — but I think it will pass two other winters in front of it now.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 2, 2012 @ 8:39 am
So the groundhog saw his shadow (in PA) – is the saying “6 more weeks of winter”? or “6 more weeks of colder weather” ? Just was wondering. Because if it is 6 more weeks of winter then based on our winter so far – it won’t be bad at all. FYI – I don’t think the groundhog up here saw his shadow – it was cloudy. Actually I think my neighborhood groundhog is still in bed.
Comment by Doppler Carol — February 2, 2012 @ 8:42 am
This morning the Virginia Tech Facebook site had: If the HokieBird goes outside this morning and sees his shadow, what does that mean, Hokie Nation?
Curiously, many of the posts were related to football. I think it means it is still Blacksburg which has its own weather-cosm, some times three seasons in one day.
Students are wearing flip-flops and shorts.
Comment by HokieTrax — February 2, 2012 @ 9:07 am
6 more weeks of winter? Not according to the latest…Oh wait a minute…I’m not supposed to mention the…uh…you know those things that keep telling us about the potential for a possible…OK, I promised Doug.
In all seriousness, I think Phil is wrong this time.
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 2, 2012 @ 9:24 am
All of my tulips and even my azaelas are very confused right now. My tulips are pushing through the ground and my azaelas are starting to bud. I have a feeling that it means that I will not have any pretty blooms come spring, because they are going to freeze. An old tale I remember my grandfather telling me was that if you see a Cardinal fly across your path in winter, snow won’t be too far away. Well, I have a resident Cardinal at my house now since putting up my bird feeders. That is a good sign as far as I’m concerned LOL
Comment by Shanon "Nurse Snow" — February 2, 2012 @ 9:42 am
I checked my daffodils this morning and they’re pushing up and will probably start blooming in a week or 2, which is quite a bit earlier than normal. Our pond fish never truly had a winter hibernation…just a short nap. We’ve had to toss in some food from time to time all winter long, when usually they go dormant for 3-4 months.
Comment by Other John — February 2, 2012 @ 10:35 am
KM: Can you say what La Nina is currently doing? Is the phenomena breaking down, firmly in place, forecasted to do…?
Thanks.
Comment by Im in DC — February 2, 2012 @ 11:18 am
La Nina is still going, though it has weakened a bit.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
I’ve never sensed that La Nina was the prime driver of our mild winter this year, other than perhaps the propensity for a Bermuda high to form and deflect storm paths inland.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 2, 2012 @ 12:08 pm
12Z GFS is back to the colder look next couple of weeks with a couple of hints of snow chances. Hints, I said.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 2, 2012 @ 12:09 pm
Maybe a little more interestingly, the 12Z GFS is bringing the cold air a bit farther south again this weekend. It’s not the hard cold-air damming setup it was showing a few days ago when we thought the wintry precipitation might have a chance to get into our area, but the blue 0C 850mb line (freezing about a mile up, roughly you’d expect a rain/snow line to set up) does scrape the northern edge of the precipitation shield in our area.
http://tinyurl.com/7yyjr2j
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 2, 2012 @ 12:18 pm
WOW..how can models be trusted????? Feb 12-13, the the Euro has 55-60 degrees and sunny for us with not a storm in site. The GFS has could air trough with snow and temps below 32.
Comment by Pistol Pete — February 2, 2012 @ 12:45 pm
Ground hogs and wooly worms are folk lore handed down and used to predict weather for a long time. I think folks used them even before NOAA weather radio. The number of stripes, how narrow they were, the lack of stripes and an all black one was a dead give away to what the winter was going to be like. I never paid them any attention, but, a solid black wooly worm ridin on Phils back has gotta mean something awful important. Jest don’t know what it is. Make it what you want it to be.
Comment by wdbrand — February 2, 2012 @ 12:59 pm
Pete: At least they’ve got 2 weeks to work out that discrepancy.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 2, 2012 @ 1:26 pm
It doesn’t look like things are not shaping up for the big ski trip next weekend. My wishcast for multiple feet of fresh snow is going to fall far short. Seeing as how this winter has progressed, we are fortunate that the long range forecast shows that highs in the upper 30s. At least it should get down in the 20s at night so hopefully they can rebuild some of their base. At least it doesn’t appear that we are in for a rain storm during that time so it could be a lot worse. Plus any bad day skiing beats a good day at work.
Comment by John from Ruckersville — February 2, 2012 @ 1:30 pm
You want to borrow my wooly worm Kevin?
Comment by wdbrand — February 2, 2012 @ 1:32 pm
Pete, I totally agree with you. Who do you believe????? Here in Roanoke, WSLS 10 says one thing, you flip it over to WDBJ they are totally different, Then if you want you can flip it over to the weather channel guess what, they are way different. Now we have the ground hog, good ole wolly worm and farmers almanac. Oh goodness who to trust. I sit back and just remember what my Grandma use to say when I was a kid and thats been years ago she would say ” Best thing to do is mot worry about it just look out the window and see what its doing at that time. That my friend is the best weather prediction a person can have. Its just too heart breaking to listen to all the forecasts no matter whose they are just to be let down when the snow storms never make it to us for what ever reason.
Sammy Snowman, (still turning to slush)
Comment by Sammy snowman — February 2, 2012 @ 1:45 pm
Hung a load of wash on the line. I thought the wind and sunshine could help it dry. (Doug – I used sturdy clothespins so the wash won’t end up down in Franklin or Patrick County). While hanging the laundry, I noticed a pair of bluebirds flying back and forth from the bluebird house. I hope they aren’t building a nest. Have not seen the robins or the red winged blackbirds yet. Both of have flocks that seem to pass through here on a migration north each spring.
Oh Sammy Snowman, I think we need to take up a collection and get Capt. Quags to fly you over to Poland or somewhere in eastern Europe.
Comment by Doppler Carol — February 2, 2012 @ 4:19 pm
I have a funny story for you.
I was talking to a school board admin. one time about snow and such. He told me one time at 8:30am (when it started to pour down snow)he got a nice call from a parent. She wanted to know who was in charge of deciding when schools would be closed.
He nicely replied “That would be me ma’am.”
She said “Could you please tell me how you make your decisions?”
“Well ma’am, we look at Accuweather alerts, The National Weather Service, VDOT road conditions, and we look at the Radar”
In the nicest replies the Mom said “Well, I got an idea for you, how about looking out the d#@n window!”
Comment by Pistol Pete — February 2, 2012 @ 4:23 pm
Last year had to be rougher on you, Sammy S. There were snow chances seemingly every week from December to early February and after Christmas they all found a way to miss. This winter has been simple: We haven’t got within 72 hours of a serious across-the-region 2-plus-inch snow threat yet, so there really haven’t been any snowstorms forecast that haven’t made it here. What snow the area has gotten was in narrow bands from upslope or an Alberta clipper.
In my opinion, the closest we’ve come to a widespread snowfall was the one in late October.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 2, 2012 @ 4:25 pm
12Z Euro flip-flops back to bringing VERY cold air down around Feb. 10-11. No obvious winter storms for our region, though.
http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/files/2012/02/12zeuro850mb216hr0203.gif
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 2, 2012 @ 5:09 pm
Windy here also. 22.8 MPH a little after 4 PM and 51* at 6 PM. As far as blue birds go, they’ve been building since Jan. in my houses. They’re tough critters, but then I’ve had houses up for 15 years or so and I reckon they come back every year to the same one. Anytime I cut a piece of locust or oak that’s hollow, I’ll cut out several sections around 1′ long and drill a 1-1/2″ hole in it and screw it to a tree.
Comment by wdbrand — February 2, 2012 @ 6:19 pm
Kevin, do you have a Facebook weather page?
Comment by Alex — February 2, 2012 @ 7:09 pm
I do not have a weather page on Facebook. I am on Twitter at @kevinmyattwx.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 2, 2012 @ 7:15 pm
Quags, you can say anything you want now about Phil, “Wooly Bully” (I was especially hoping that you would give me a thumbs up about that and make a nice comment on youtube, too), Victoria’s Secret, Victor’s Secret, whatever. I made my prediction yesterday morning at 7:07 AM (on previous thread) about what the Punxsu Phil groundhog would do. And that it would have a different meaning this year. Kevin put his own twist on it above, too.
Unlike my snow prediction for Dec. 12th and getting more than 2.5 inches of rain in January, I nailed the groundhog prediction perfectly. I haven’t looked at the video, but I bet the folks used big floodlights of some kind to create a false sun and get him to see his shadow.
And thanks, wd, for the info about the wooly worms. More comments later this evening.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 2, 2012 @ 7:24 pm
Does anyone get the feeling that WSLS is EXTREMELY biased towards warm weather? WDBJ at least is more balanced in how they present their forecasts.
Comment by Nick in the Elett Valley — February 2, 2012 @ 8:37 pm
When I update later tonight, I’ll be jettisoning talk of the next 2 weeks for a bit to focus on this weekend. There is some model support for dragging a cold-air wedge far enough south for some freezing/frozen precipiation this weekend. Reminds me a lot of two weekends ago when we had some spotty freezing rain. Certainly will make for another chilly, damp weekend.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 2, 2012 @ 8:42 pm
Nick – I used to get frustrated with WSLS and WDBJ with their winter weather forecasts. I finally came to the realization that they are just realistic. They do not over hype anything, which for the general public is a good thing. As much as I would love them to venture into fantasy land with GFS coastal’s at hour 168 and talk of AO and PNA, they really just call it like it is, not what us snow lovers are wishcasting for. Give them their props, they are usually right. By the way latest forecasted high temps for next Weds. 2/8 are in the upper 40′s for Blacksburg, so much for our sharp arctic front.
Comment by Blacksburg Mike — February 2, 2012 @ 9:23 pm
Wow, close call on the 0z NAM but still not cold enough for a snow event for this weekend. Could continue to trend colder but I would be surprised.
Comment by Roa10 — February 2, 2012 @ 9:36 pm
What a warm 3 days its been.Its just now down to 39, first time its been in the 30`s for 3 days now.Hit near 55 here today,65 wednesday,65 tuesday.I`m really loving this nice weather,but its time for some snow!Amen everyone!Come on Kevin help us get some snow up here in Northern Va before its too late!Lol!
Comment by Mike in Marshall — February 2, 2012 @ 9:38 pm
Everything beyond this weekend is murky. Models flipping and flopping 30 degrees on some days.
Hey, what’s wrong with talking about the AO and PNA? Those are not made-up fantasy things, but well-documented, expertly-measured atmospheric phenomena.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 2, 2012 @ 9:48 pm
Mike in Marshall: You might get a little this weekend. But most of the moisture may squeak south of you.
Roa10: It’s really close on the NAM, but it’s harder to get the surface cooled enough after it’s been 60 a couple of days before. Would not be surprised to see some sleet or even snowflakes by Saturday night/early Sunday, but I doubt there would be enough intensity or cold enough temperatures to overcome late March-like ground temperatures for any accumulation. And air temperatures near the surface will be stubborn, too. Besides all that — this system is going to be drying up moving up through here.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 2, 2012 @ 9:56 pm
In my opinion WDBJ and WSET do a fair job, but WSLS seems to moan and complain about anything related to cold and snow. This does not make them any less accurate! I’m just just saying they clearly have a personal bias towards warmer weather (and then they complain the the summer that it’s too hot outside).
Hopefully I don’t get in trouble for saying that.
Comment by Ice storm lover — February 2, 2012 @ 10:20 pm
I always stay neutral discussing local TV weather. I’ll leave those opinions for others.
I do remember growing up in Arkansas that it seemed like ALL the TV weather sources decried snow and praised winter warmth — this in a place that averaged less than 6 inches a year and usually got house-demolishing tornadoes to go along with mid-winter warmth.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 2, 2012 @ 10:24 pm
Today’s low temp at RRA was a ridiculous 52 degrees, which is 5 degrees warmer than the normal high temp!!! Crazy. I of course loved it, because the rain stayed away and there was quite a healthy wind to keep things from getting too toasty (we Roanoke city letter carriers have to either wear a tie or a semi-turtleneck (which is even warmer!) until at least the end of February). Mean temp today at RRA was 57, the same as it is on April 18-20!!!!
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 2, 2012 @ 10:28 pm
From the “entertaining” Old Farmers Almanac. Not too good, huh?
Feb 1-6: Snow showers, very cold
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — February 2, 2012 @ 10:29 pm
Doug: That would have tied a record for warmest low on Feb. 2, except that it’s already gotten colder than that this evening (48 at 10 p.m.).
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 2, 2012 @ 10:35 pm
Kevin – I (and I assume most of us on your great blog) love talking about the AO and PNA, etc. I was just commenting that the local tv mets would never discuss those things. They just do a very solid job of making good, accurate forecasts, that usually for snow lover do not give us much hope. That is why we come here……for your insight, and hope for a change!
Comment by Blacksburg Mike — February 2, 2012 @ 10:37 pm
I have to admit to something. I have gone back to the early Feb. 2010 archives of this blog, and was trying to find one of Kevin’s “patented” percentage ranges for the snowstorm that hit on Feb. 5-6, 2010. 9.4 inches of the wettest, heaviest snow I can ever remember in my lifetime, and definitely since I came here. Mercifully that was the last biggie of that incredible winter, but the snow and ice lingered for almost another month, perhaps more in colder locations. Then I was going to take that snowfall range forecast (3-6 inches 15%; 7-10 inches 60%; 11+ inches: 25% that sort of thing) and insert it now and change the day of the week to Sunday to see if you snow lovers would get excited. And I would be doing it to cheer you up, frankly. As depressed and tense as I was during the last 11 weeks of winter 2009-10, I think some of you are just as depressed about this one. I just thought of something else …. those of you new to the blog probably haven’t seen even one of those Kevin snowfall percentages comments at all!!!
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 2, 2012 @ 10:40 pm
Bburg Mike: My comment was meant somewhat light-hearted — should have put a smiley face on it.
Sometimes on Twitter I get in a bit of discussion with some of the area’s TV mets. Sean Sublette (Channel 13), Jamey Singleton (formerly Channel 10 and now Franklin County cable TV) and I have been knocking around a few thoughts on this weekend’s setup tonight. I’m not in competition with any of them, and even the ones that are in competition are very respectful of one another.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 2, 2012 @ 10:44 pm
“With that kind of moisture, we could have mixed precipitation for several hours and still get to a foot (of snow) total. Newest NAM also impressive with long duration of precipitation, filling in dry slot with wraparound snows on (Sunday).” That is almost a verbatim comment from our BB (Beloved Blogmaster) from 2-3-10, 9:52 PM.
How much would some of you snow lovers give to see that come from him now ….. and that was for Roanoke!!! And that very nearly verified!
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 2, 2012 @ 10:48 pm
How about this, Doug.
Snowfall now through end of season:
Roanoke
0 inches — 20 percent
0.1 to 1 inch — 25 percent
1 to 3 inches — 35 percent
3-plus inches — 20 percent
Blacksburg
0 inches — 10 percent
0.1 to 1 inch — 20 percent
1 to 3 inches — 45 percent
3-plus inches — 25 percent
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 2, 2012 @ 10:49 pm
He made another comment on that same Feb. 2010 thread that was amazingly accurate. let me see if I can find it again. In response to a question from one of us, Kevin said the following at 9:09 PM that same evening. “No idea on spring yet. Usually the El Nino effects of frequent rain/snow relent a bit. A lot of times we come out of a long cold, snowy period into rather sudden warmth. I think this current pattern has at least two weeks and probably 4-6 weeks in it …. ” Well, talk about being exactly right?!!! The cold relented after March 6th, and yes, it was that abrupt. That made it 31 days after he posted the comment. The first 6 days of March in ROA were all colder than normal, but then the furnace FINALLY came on and the rest of March was way above normal, enough to make the month quite warm. Don’t remember the exact number, but I think it was about a +4. It is predictions/outlooks like those that make me admire KM the most.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 2, 2012 @ 11:00 pm
I just remembered two other things about that March. It was by far the latest date for my forsythia to completely bloom, March 22nd, after the equinox. wow!! That last day of March and the first few days of April were so hot (!!!!!!) that my dogwoods bloomed on Easter Sunday, which I think was the 4th, AND THE FORSYTHIA WERE STILL IN BLOOM. They normally are separated by about a month, with the yellow bush in bloom from March 10-17 and the dogwoods in bloom in mid-April. I asked around from folks who had lived here for many decades, and no one could remember it ever happening before. Maybe 1960? That winter was so late that it might have happened then, too. wd?
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 2, 2012 @ 11:06 pm
Thanks Doug for your kind comments and the trip down memory lane.
I didn’t sleep much in the 2009-10 winter. We had the big snowstorm a week before Christmas, my son was born a few weeks later, then the back-to-back winter storms in late January and early February, plus a whole slew of heavy rain, wind and smaller snow events surrounding those. It’s when the blog hits and comments, steadily building for years, went through the roof.
That winter was challenging from a stamina perspective but the forecasting was much more straightforward. There were huge wads of moisture erupting from the Pacific and adding in Gulf moisture as the storms headed east, running headlong into deep cold air, big winter storm potential obvious several days in advance. Hard-set AO-, NAO- with only some relenting of the pattern for a few days in January.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 2, 2012 @ 11:09 pm
You are very welcome, Kevin. I hope some of the newcomers look at your 10:49 PM comment. But it is not quite the same as predicting multiple inches for an upcoming single storm, with 3 inches or more being the SMALLEST number listed. Am I right, snow lovers? This ol’ snow hater definitely thinks so. When I saw those multi-inch predictions from that winter, I immediately would hear my stomach gurgling from the stress. Although I lucked out for that 2-5-10 snowstorm by having it happen on my long weekend. And I remember how furious and frustrated I got once that winter when both the AO and NAO had relented for a while, but we still got hit with a snowfall, and you said it was because of the PNA. For a moment I thought you were making it up to tease me, but then you explained. LOL
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 3, 2012 @ 12:01 am