UPDATE 8:30 AM, 2/19: Winter storm warning remains in effect; snow developing by afternoon/evening most locations in SW Virginia
LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR LINKED HERE
WINTER STORM WARNING AND SNOW PROJECTION MAPS FROM WEATHER-SERVICE BLACKSBURG
HIGH RISK OF 4-PLUS INCHES CONTINUES OVER REGION ACCORDING TO HPC
UPDATE 8:30 AM: Cooling processes have worked very efficiently to get snowflakes to the surface right off the bat this morning. But these are only preliminary light bands of precipitation, and probably won’t amount to a lot, with surface temperatures still above freezing for most and a warm ground. Accumulations will require heavier snow later and colder surface temperatures, and that can only happen with the upper level low moving just south of us later today and this evening. It’s still back to the west in the Tennessee/Mississippi area. We’ll just have to watch it develop to see where the precipitation bands form. END UPDATE
UPDATE 6:40 AM: Radar and model trends suggest all of Southwest Virginia is on track for widespread precipitation today, changing to snow from higher elevations downward through the day as evaporational (precipitation falling through dry air aloft), dynamic (freezing level lowered by atmospheric lift changing atmospheric pressure) and advection (cold air moving in along the surface on northeast winds) cooling processes drop surface temperatures from the current 40s to near freezing. Winter storm warnings remain posted across Southwest Virginia, and have in fact been expanded south and east, for 3-6-inch amounts possible, as the upper-level low brings colder air aloft and heavier precipitation by evening. If there are heavier amounts than that, it would seem the counties immediately along the Virgnia-North Carolina border (Grayson, Carroll, Patrick, Henry, etc.) would be favored to have a shot with heavier bands developing by late afternoon and evening. Regions along and west of Interstate 77 are also targeted with higher potential of 8-plus, even slight chance of 12-plus amounts, according to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. But this is always difficult to nail precisely. END UPDATE
Some new forecast model data from Saturday night suggests the storm system may veer a little farther to the south. The result would be less moisture into much of Southwest Virginia, and lighter precipitation, including snowfall, in much of the region. The exception would be near the Virginia-North Carolina border. This may not be a final result, as the main upper-level energy that would trigger precipitation remains back in the central U.S. late Saturday evening. That will move just south of us late Sunday, and that’s when there will likely be the best chance of snow — beginning as rain, sleet or mix. We’ll need to monitor trends on the models and radar during the day on Sunday, but the higher end amounts above 6 inches seem unlikely at this point. Let’s take a fresh look at things in the morning to see how they have progressed.
February 19, 2012 - 12:19 AM
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Thanks Kevin for all you do. Sleep sounds nice,but I bet many of us keep one eye open!!!
Hmmmm … that “awful” GFS run spits out 5 inches for Roanoke and 6 for Blacksburg, per the “clown” map.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=FCX
It ain’t over folks. Not with that upper-level low still hanging west. I remember plenty of decent snow events that came from just a single upper low, not all this complicated phasing stuff.
Good night everyone!
Kevin you are amazing !!! Thanks for all of your updates!!!!
BUST! !!its 52 degrees at 1 am
There were lots of honeybees around one of my plants today!! It started to bloom and they were swarming it! They’ll definitely be gone today!
Very disappointed about these new developments…I had so much hope, but really, at this point, I’ll take anything I can get. And who says this is the last snow for 10 months? I know the pattern isn’t conducive to more snow, but we’re getting this now, and it wasn’t really supposed to happen…and there’s been times in late Feb. and all of March into early April where it has snowed!
Winter Storm Warning for Lynchburg!
It’s so weird that when it was looking much better for heavier snow they went with an advisory only, but now that it looks like the heavier snow shifted south, they upgrade me to a warning..
Alrite everybody, up and atem.
Radar looks impressive in N Mississippi as of 6:00 am Upper low is crawling which is good news for us ,right Kevin? Stewartsville wants snow. Kevin, Thanks for your time and dedication to a great blog.
Radar looks great this morning
just a quick look at my radar before work..
(cant blog from work sets!
big swath of heavier moisture heading into easter NC
and out to sea over Lower Chesapeake Bay…
whats in ROA area seems to be virga in the drier air..
Does look like the part of the system over NRN MS/ALA
is perched to give u guys a pretty good snow later in the day.
..Ill be watching in silence from airplane central..
..From the bunker..
TWC now saying Seidel and crew assessing where they will/should be. Stagich still saying Roanoke is bullseye. NWS 4am discussion saying highway 58 corridor best bet.
Rumors of this winter storm’s demise have been greatly exaggerated for Southwest Virginia.
What a happy comment Kevin! (#13) Great way to start my day!!!!
Yes! I’ve been up since 4am with my five month old, waiting for everyone to wake up and tell me that the storm isn’t a bust.
Light precip in Pulaskitown …surfaces damp, not wet …temps mild, winds calm …where is ‘Blizzard Bill Spencer’ when we need him?
You may see radar showing echoes overhead with no precipitation reaching your location for a while. For snow lovers, this can be a very good thing. That virga, precipitation evaporating before it reaches the ground, is inducing evaporational cooling. Every raindrop/snowflake/sleet pellet that evaporates takes a little more heat out of the atmosphere and thereby cools the column of air between clouds and ground.
Getting from low-mid 40s to near freezing for snow is not really that hard if these processes are working well.
Roanoke temperature is 43 with a dew point of 26. Very good sign.
And both have dropped in the last hour. Getting DRIER air in northeast winds is a good thing for snow lovers in this situation. There are cases where dry air chokes off moisture, but in this case, you need dry lower layers for that evaporational cooling.
I know we are in now casting mode, but the 6z GFS should relieve anyone’s fear. Still gets 6-8 into ROA.
39.2* and 25* DP at 7:20 on da Knob. It is getting there 1* at a time.
Blacksburg airport’s temperature has gone from 43 to 39 in the last hour. Very recently I’ve seen snow reach the surface at 40 degrees. It may need to drop a few more degrees this time, but it shows the cooling processes are at work.
Our high temperatures happened close to midnight today.
Morning all. 38* with few point at 33* here in Woodlawn. Slight cold drizzle out there this morning. Better snow here today as I am planning on making a big pot of chili,but ONLY if it snows!!
Morning all…..nice pretty big flakes here in Floyd. Here we go!
I’m sitting 40 degrees at 1,400 feet just south of Roanoke.
Do you know your elevation, Soozine?
I believe I am near 2,500.
39 and raining here in Wytheville.
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!WEATHER FLASH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Saw the first flakes at 7:22 AM. Calling D. Carol!!! Check in please. You mought be seeing some too.
Remember: You heard it here first.
As long as Kevin is giving elevation………make that 39 and raining at 2,450 ft. in Wytheville
Hello does anyone know what the elevation of Goodview is?
and we have our first flakes in Carroll County. Wet Snow mixed with rain. 36 degrees at my house.
One reminder to all — even if you’re a regular (and don’t have it your username like some do) please remember to say where you live or where you are observing something if you report an observation. Your approximate elevation is also helpful if you know it.
WD, I know you’re on 12′O Clock Knob southwest of Roanoke — what’s your aproximate elevation?
Temp has dropped 5 degrees in the last hour here just east of Wytheville…sitting at 39 right now and a light drizzle. I’m torn b/c as a snow lover (and a teacher who desperately needs a few days off), I am ready for this. However, my wife is an RN and may end up having to spend the night at the hospital tonight. By the way, Kevin, love your use of the Mark Twain quote in reference to this system.
Wind is starting here also and temp is coming down with it.
WOW, that didn’t take long — snowflakes out my window, 1,400 feet, southern Roanoke County.
It’s flat out snowing in Ferrum and windy.
Light sprinkles and 38 degrees at 1500 ft in South Roanoke. Now off to church!
Steve
Good Morning -Doppler Carol here at 2546 ft on the ridge near the Doppler Radar in Floyd County. Snow started at 7am here. Temp at 6:30am was 36F and it has now dropped to 34F. Snow and wind coming out of the east southeast.
Very grey (gray?) right now, don’t have my weather center yet (not sure I ever will), but definitely feels colder/moister than at 5:00am when I first took the dogs out. Birds and squirrels are out feeding, crows are on the prowl. Yucky old thermometer on front porch (which never sees the sun) says 38.
SE Roanoke City, don’t see anything here yet
Hey Kevin do you know the elevation for Goodview? That’s where I live but I have no clue what the elevation is. It’s not snowing here yet. Thanks for all of your postings.
Radford 2100′ – 43 degrees with sprinkles of rain mixed with a little graupel.
sorry it’s SW, but still nothing yet
Goodview is probably in the neighborhood of 1,000 feet, maybe a little higher if you’re on a ridge.
First snow flakes at approx. 1400feet southwest county.
Thanks for the info, Kevin (#17) I wondered how it could snow when it was so warm!
37.9 degrees here in troutville off country club rd. starting to see flakes.
Thomas – Where I live in Goodview the elevation is 1020 feet, but, as you know, there are lots of hills and valleys around here. On the NWS site, the point forecast for our zip (24095) shows and elevation of 997 feet. Currently at 7:44 there’s not going on outside with a temp of 40.0
It is 37 degrees here in Bedford near the hospital at about 950 feet elevation and we are seeing our first snowflakes.
No precip yet at my location three minutes from The Roanoke Times. However, it’s noticeably colder than it was half an hour ago, and the mountains are barely visible.
First snow in Radford at 2100′ – winds have picked up out of the east and temp dropping off rather quickly, now 39 degrees
Just started here near Smith Mtn Lake. Just under 1000 elevation.
Like my PWS[Lost Mountain, shown on wunderground.com] it’s 1827′.
Post 30#— Thomas, a PWS is listed for Wood Lake in Goodview at 1,020′ in elevation. If you go to wunderground.com, type in Goodview and then look for the Goodview Personal Weather Stations at the botoom of page. Look at map shown and you can see where you are in relation. Figured you knew my station was on board Kevin
Got a tweet from HokieTrax, returning with VT students from Auburn, that they have reached Chattanooga in heavy rain this morning.
Doppler Carol back again. Soozinne – I went to Google Earth and here are some elevations for you – 2410 ft. off of your deck; 2403 on the road in front of your house; 2387 at the intersection of BethCh and Coles Knob; and right in the back yard 2425 ft. (I am about due east of you)
Let me have my morning caffeine and I will be up and running.
Thanks Kevin
First big snow flakes starting to fall in Blacksburg, 2500 ft. Temp is down to 39 degrees
It’s now snowing in Downtown Roanoke.
Hey Rick from Wytheville — Weather Channel’s Mike Seidel is coming down your way to report live today.
wdbrand – Thanks for letting him know about the PWS in Goodview, that’s actually my station. I tend to forget my data is still sent there as I don’t visit wunderground as much as I used to except for their excellent radar maps.
I live 2.3 Miles from cavesping toward bent mountain on 221 – near poage valley rd. I see flurries floating by my window..
Is this still a bust or not
Hello all! Long time reader, first time blogger here in Salem, 1,102 feet. Seeing a faint flurry here and there of something mixed. Could it be that the more things change (the models) the more they stay the same? Also if you need to find out your elevation by your specific address try http://veloroutes.org/elevation/.
Nothing yet in North Roanoke, near NHS. Some sprinkles of rain.
Snowing here at Slings Gap, atop Bent Mountain! Elevation at my home is 2980′, temperature is 33 degrees.
Woo-Hoo!!
Bobby: Not a bust. Unless you want 6-plus inches everywhere.
Of course we won’t know for sure til tonight.
Kevin, I must be near you, Cave Spring area at about 1378 per google earth. 40 here and very light snow.
Not really sure why he would go to Wytheville; I guess being there puts him in position to head most any direction as this storm develops. Fancy Gap should be interesting today, but probably not from a driving standpoint. Glad Hokietrax picked another route…
Looks like snow on crest of McAfee Knob and Fort Lewis Mountain, but nothing reaching the ground here yet. Elevation here right at about 1210-ish; can see the mountains from my windows (McAfee to the north, Fort Lewis to the southwest).
Snowing on jeters chapel mnt
39 degrees, 1890 ft here in GilesCo little SE of Pembroke. Some rain/snow mix but light,light, light! not even making the deck wet yet
I just want to say that, regardless of what happens today, I really appreciate Kevin’s blog, his professional attitude and the people here who participate in it. There is another forecaster based here in Virginia who has become quite popular as of late, who is known both for his sometimes crazy predictions along with his downright rude and tasteless comments. Leading up to this event, he was openly laughing at other mets and weather services who were only calling for a few inches in most areas of Virginia (while he was predicting 8-12 for many spots). He even called several Richmond area mets idiots on his page for not getting on board with his bold predictions, all to the delight of his rabid followers.
Now that its only a matter of time before his bold predictions are once again proven wrong, I’ll be curious if he’ll apologize to the many he vilified or if he’ll come up with some sort of an excuse (I’m betting the latter.). With all that being said, again I can’t say enough how wonderful this forum is and how professional the majority of its posters are.
First flakes here in Woodlawn elevation 2500′. Temp has dropped 1.5* in past 15mins. May have to fix pancakes this morning since snowing already!
Light snowflakes in Bonsack area of Roanoke County…1250 feet. 40 degrees.
I heard Mike Seidel is coming to Wytheville. Do I set out milk and cookies like I do for Santa?
It was snowing lightly in Fincastle/Daleville but it stopped. I noticed a previous comment in this thread from a RYAN SALVI about Country Club Road in Botetourt County. I live off of Country Club Road on a side street. What a small world! the NWS still has us in the 5-8″ zone which surprises me. I honestly thought I’d wake up and it would be downgraded or totally a bust and what surprisingly assured. The local forecast even bumped up tonights totals from 1-3″ last night to 2-4″ along with todays 2-4″ which literally taken would be 4-8″!
Mike24141: HPC has bullseye on Wytheville and just west.
Nailing the heaviest plop of snow is a crap shoot at best. Such small local changes can push that band north or south.
Moderate to Heavy all Snow now falling in Carroll COunty.
Nothing yet a few miles west of Fincastle (elevation just over 1000 ft, I think). I’ve spent all weekend waffling over whether or not to drive to Richmond for a funeral this afternoon. I will be terribly vexed if I stay home and this turns out to be a whole lotta nothin’.
It’s snowing lightly in Martinsville! The temp has dropped 3 degrees in the past hour, 41 degrees now. Yay, game on! Don’t want to steal any snow from my northern neighbors, but glad we’re in the game! BTW, our elevation is about 1000 ft.
Snow and sleet in the Oak Grove area of Roanoke Co.
Snowing at my place with 35 for temp. Let it snow
Snow falling in Sinking Creek (2400ft)
Thanks Carol! Talk about thorough.
I must go to town for….for….SOMETHING. I made bread, my goat has milk, and the chickens got the eggs covered. Maybe it’s chocolate?
Snow stopping and starting here. Everyone have a good mornin’!
Interesting effects here in Pulaski. Our house’s elevation is 1,930 feet, with no snow, but we have an excellent view of Peaks Knob, where the virga is reaching the ground at about 2600 feet and falling. We’re actually watching the evaporating snow cool the air and bring the “real” snow in behind it. (But still no flakes at our elevation.)
Snowing here now, ever lightly. Looks mixed with rain/sleet.
And by the way I am at about1678ft in elevation
It’s snowing in Goodview. elevation is 1020 ft
First flakes and raindrops here. See the snow levels dropping on the mountains all around (it’s like a bowl here). Haven’t stepped out to see if the temp has dropped any more, will in a few when I go check for eggs. Trying to let DH sleep a little longer, I’ll set the dogs off when I open a door. Depending on what website is used, elevation here is between 1210 and 1239. If I think about it long enough I’ll just dig up my elevation certificate (courtesy of Roanoke County when they re-did the flood maps).
Has been a mix of snow and sleet since about 7:30 this morning on North Fork Road near Ellett, 1,800 feet, 36 degrees and falling, winds east/northeast 6 mph
Been snowing here in FC at 1197ft since about 745.
At 8:20 it is snowing pretty hard now at my house (Cave Spring area of SW Roanoke Co. About 1.6 miles and 100 feet higher from Brambleton/Roselawn intersection).
Big flakes here at my apartment in SW Roanoke
Good Morning Kevin- I am in Cave Spring- elevation about 1200ft. What do you think the snowfall totals will be for this area? I am excited we are going to finally get a measurable snow, but, kind of bummed that the totals have been lowered for the Roanoke area
Long time lurker I am a huge snow fan. Where is Sammy Oakey ? I will bet no one can guess why I ask
Snowing in Troutville (not sure of the elevation), very lazy flakes, slightly more than a flurry so far
Has anyone heard if it’s snowing anywhere in Washington County? Near Bristol? I left yesterday to come to UNC Chapel Hill for work so that I would not have to drive in a wintry mix this morning. First big snow we have a good chance for and I’m missing it!! IRKSOME!
Started snowing in Hardy around 8:15. Elevation at my house 830 feet. Probably a good sign for decent accumulations in lower elevations.
Light snow in Willis at the western end of Floyd Co at about 2800′ elevation. The bed of the trailer has a solid coating, still able to see more grass than snow in the pasture. Time to make a fresh pot of coffee and get the fireplace going.
Snow flurries falling in Bedford.
First flakes now at 1,930 feet in Pulaski, 36*. That was fast.
Light snow in Raleigh Court. SW part of Roanoke city. 40 degrees and roughly 1,000 feet.
It’s beautiful!!!! My elevation is 1026 ft. in Roanoke near Patrick Henry High School (almost on the valley floor). All things have to set up perfectly for me to get snow at my house. I didn’t even get the trace that everyone else got earlier this winter. Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow!
Kevin: Many thanks for all you do. How much do you think Roanoke will end up with now that the storm has shifted a little south?
Steady snow this A.M. in my part of Grayson. 36 degrees. Elevation 2930. See Siedel moved to Wytheville this morning.
A few flakes falling near Patrick Henry HS in SW City. Temp holding steady at 43 but humidity has gone from 35% to 40% on my monitor in the last 30 minutes. Was on the Blue Ridge Parkway yesterday afternoon. They had already closed portions of it and were kicking folks off at Rt. 24. I’m dubious we’ll get hit with much but still watching.
Snowing lightly at Ridgewood Farm (across 419 from Lewis-Gale). Elevation about 1100 ft.
We have light snow falling here at Observation Station 1000 ft… Roanoke Salem Boarder Brandon Ave area. Lets see what the day brings, but for the first time all year I can see snow falling at my house.
A few pavement surface temps.
I-77 SBL MP 16.9 Observation @ 02.19.2012 08:16 AM 36.9º
NBL of I-581 @ MP5.5 Observation @ 02.19.2012 08:22 AM 42.8º
I-81 @ SR 682 (Rural Retreat)Observation @ 2012-02-19 08:06 EST 40.3º
As I note in my new update, this is just preliminary stuff, and probably won’t amount to a lot before noon in most places. Any significant accumulation we get will come when the upper-level low tracks closer later today.
When should it start to stick? Brian – Christiansburg
Wow, radar starting to pick up and looks to be headed in a northeast fashion! Kevin, why wouldnt that snow move through swva up through towards DC? What would make the snow stop moving in a northeast fashion as it is doing now? TWC is now forecasting less than an inch here in Greene!
Snowing once again in Fincastle/Daleville but my atomic clock indicates it’s 40.5-degrees! Temperature must drop drop drop!!!! It’s beyond flurries almost into light snow territory. From comment I read above, the accumulations really haven’t been lowered from any reports I’ve heard unless I’ve missed something. It was 4or 5-8″ as I went to bed last night and still remains 4-8″ as far as I know. Many areas to our north and east have been hung out to dry…LITERALLY! The dynamics of this storm are still in progress and who knows whats going to happen.
Falling pretty heavy here and the temp is dropping, Went from 41 to 37 in a matter of an hour and a half.
I need a 511 for fancy gap mountain/77. I have family heading that way this morning. I would appreciate info from anyone living down that way
Light rain and 62 on the way to 70 in HH SC @ 11 ft elevation. Tee time @ noon. Back in Va Tuesday-Wednesday when all that mess is gone
Flakes flying, temps falling (39.5), and wind picking up in Windsor Hills section on Roanoke City/County border. Getting ready to raise the white flag and surrender to the inevitability of a moderate snowfall! Griggsy and I lose a tough one, but even the Heat lose one every now and again. And hey Randy, glad to see weather geekness runs in the family!
The fact that the northern edge of this early precipitation shield is way up in northern Virginia should be encouraging to snow fans. That usually delineates how the “comma head” or deformation zone will fill in later as the upper low gets closer.
I guess now is time to shift from the GFS, NAM, and other models to the WFFTS model, that is the whats falling from the sky model. Kevin, I enjoyed the dynamic cooling discussion. Growing up in SC it was very rare to see snow (at all), but especially with temps above 32. It would be forecast to start as rain and turn to snow, but just did not happen that often. Whether it is accumulating snow or not, seeing snowflakes here in SW Va with the temp at 40 is not unusual at all. I am thinking part of the difference there is the humidity, and the role it may play in that dynamic cooling.
Leo Lady: Not 100 percent certain at this point it will end up all that much south. I think 3 inches is not unreasonable for Roanoke if we get more intense snow later. 6 not out of the question if heavy snow bands set up a bit farther north than modeled this morning, which actually happens quite often. 2-4 is probably a fair mid-range call now for Roanoke city.
Kevin – - are you sayin in comment 108 that you think the comma head could go north of the area up that way – - also – - have had heavy snow in Carroll County for almost an hour now. Ground is covered, with a little under an inch.
We’re definitely the underdog today as they only have us slated for maybe 2″. Opposed to last night at least it feels like snow. We’re at 37 with a high overcast. Skies to the SW are getting darker and likely snow is probably reaching the ground around Wintergreen.
White rain here in riner at 2050ft. Temp 32 and snow and wind is very brisk. Indian valley already getting it on surfaces…we will be close to follow i’d say!!! Thanks for good clean fun here Kevin! I love this place!
Wow. Precipitation ceiling dropped fast! Went from just a few flakes here and there to a mix of rain/wet snow in the blink of an eye. Can’t see the mountains, just grey. Birds all disappeared from the ground, but still heard some in the trees. Fed the chickens before it sets in for good later on (when it does they most likely will go to roost). And the next report on TWC after commercial break is from Seidel in Wytheville.
MARK IN PULASKI
Heavy Snow in Carroll County – - ground is covering quickyl. Nothing on roads yet but visiblities are low and snow is moderate to heavy. Have heard of no road problems yet.
A band of light snow just swept our ridge. Hogback Mountain is out of sight behind falling snow. Temperature here is 35.
Big fat flakes now falling in Troutville!
Snow here at Slings Gap near the Parkway slowed a bit for awhile and looked like it was gonna change to rain. Now it’s snowing in earnest again. Whew! Started a little after 7 this morning, sticking to trees and ground now.
Dog just came in with a “light dusting” after being outside investigating activity at the bird feeders.
Kevin, this blog is amazing! We never miss your column. Thanks soooo much for doing this, it’s a great service to us weather junkies.
And I love all the comments, good humor and good writing from everyone: Dan Griggs, Capt Quagmire, Doppler Carol, and everyone else. It’s great to hear what’s going on! Thanks, all!
On 220 South, at “Summit” up the hill just past “Outback,” at 1,425-feet…
light, steady SNOW with small-medium flakes, SURPRISINGLY UN-wet! Falling
slowly, lazily! Zero rain-element, all flakes. Am a bit surprised, as temps
were 45-47 at appx. 4:00am when I rolled-over lolol. Could indeed be HUGE
today, and I am excited and tickled as a baby polar bear! Our ONE Winter fling, GO FOR IT!
Kinda cool to watch the weather channel and see our Wytheville hot air baloon water tower in the background! Temp down to 37 here at around 2100 ft.
Nice big flakes here in Blacksburg at 2,000′. The cat came in to wake us this morning, all wet from the snow flakes. Not sure he’s a snow lover.
ALSO, the WC now predicting 1 – 3 daytime, and 2 – 4 night-time = storm total of 3 – 7 inches!
Heads-up and booties-and-gloves on, kiddies, it’s a-comin’!!
Great comment by Cville4 at exactly 8 AM. I know “to whom” you were referring, and I absolutely agree with everything you commented about him. Incredible knowledge, stupendous at calling attention to a possible threat about ten days in advance, but UNBELIEVABLY disrespectful and has often posted snowfall predictions just a day or two in advance of a system that are way too “optimistic” and end up being very, very wrong. It is very likely that the one that others posted links to yesterday will end up that way yet again. I know that I am (and I feel safe in saying that just about everyone else who even reads this blog at all regularly feels the same way) EXTREMELY GRATEFUL that Kevin’s personality is just the opposite. And that he posts snowfall ranges and percentages.
Good morning all,hope everyone is enjoying the snow down in Southwestern Va.31 for a low here this morning,up to 34 now.All the T.V.stations in D.C are saying no snow up this way,for this storm.Everyone have a great Sunday!P.S. I know you snow lovers are going nuts down there!Please send some up this way!LOL!
@ Mark in Pulaski I-77 SBL MP 9.6 Snow falling – air temp 32.4º – pavement surface temp 35.1º – visibility 6500′ all lanes clear @ 8:44.
37, rain and not a flake to be found in The Weather Channels bulls eye.
Bye, off to church………………
Just saw Mike Seidel on TWC. He should learn how to pronounce “Wytheville”. Doh!
Show of hands-who had Feb. 19th for Roanoke’s first 1″ snow? That’s who I want to listen to. Looks like a busy day of blog watching ahead. The storm is here and no one has a clue what it’s going to do. I still say Roanoke gets 7″ with Westlake staying all rain and 65 for my golf game tomorrow.
I swear by the naked eye this thing looks like joe bastardi last call map. He had heavy snow from NRV/Roanoke up through Central and Northern VA! Maybe its just wishful thinking on my part but unless things start moving due east those heavy snows in southside they are calling for now look like they may move north. How far north I dont know.
Thanks alot Wytheville-you stole our Mike Seidel. Snow jinx on you now.
Britten in Harrisonburg va… any way this moves a little north so can enjoy something this winter kevin?
Well, Britten, the northern edge of the precip shield — though it’s virga — is up near you. There’s a chance you get some. Just gotta see how it sets up.
I don’t think this storm is going to materialize. It’s going to be pushed South and all we’re going to get is rain.
@ Zach. Thanks for the info. They are leaving Pulaski soon. Sounds like they can get through there before it sticks to the road.
There was some light snow spitting here in Salem (right by the river) but it appears to have all but stopped… For now…
Concerning Fact: It is 36 degrees in Blacksburg right now, with a dew point of 36. There is no more room for the temp to fall. It is what it is, and no amount of wishcasting will change it. Enjoy the white rain today.
@Johnny. Thanks for the update on 77. Where do you get your info from?
37.7 in Goodview with light snow…actually sticking to the grill cover. It ‘s very bright out.
Rick spoke about a half hour too soon…rain has changed to snow in the last little bit here in Max Meadows (just east of Wytheville). Temp has dropped another half degree in the last 30 minutes as well…36.3 according to my thermometer.
Hey Kevin here in alum ridge Floyd there is about an inch already with the snow still falling heavy temp is 34 it was 42 earlier this morning. Things are looking good so far here!
James; If it pushes south, the issue wouldn’t be getting rain — we’d be in more cold air if it goes south. The issue would be maybe missing the bulk of moisture.
Mike: It’s right where it’s supposed to be right now. You were not supposed to be to freezing yet at the surface by 10 a.m.. You have no room for evaporational cooling at the surface at the moment, but that’s not the primary mechanism at work for cooling. And if there’s drier air still aloft, there’s evaporational cooling still going on above you. Have patience, wait for the upper low to do its thing.
The mountain outside my window has disappeared and the intensity of snow has increased.temp is now 34.Sammy yes I guess it is in our genes
Conditions at the base of Bent Mt. – Martins Creek:
Air Temp 34.5
Elevated Surfaces 36
Paved Driveway, road and sidewalk 39.5
I’m using one of those handy dandy laser thermometers. Point and shoot.
Snowing pretty good. Small flakes, no rain. Snow rate has picked up in last half hour and flakes have become smaller.
No ‘stickage’ as of yet.
You know, this is like a lot of the snow situations I grew up with in Arkansas. It could be rain/mix/sleet/”white rain” and 38 degrees for hours, then suddenly the upper low kicks in, heavier precip starts and its 32 with snow sticking.
Here at 1,620 ft and 38 degrees in Narrows, we’ve got a little very, very, light drizzle and the skies seem like they’re getting lighter. Some of the surrounding mountains look like they may be getting some light snow.
I sure hope you’re right, Kevin, and that it’ll be here later. But my husband flipped his windshield wipers up, so I’m afraid he may have jinxed it!
Snowing lightly in Pulaskitown (elev 1920)…light breeze
Steady snow from my little Floyd homestead, sticking to ground/trees/structures, and just barely starting to stick on roads. More like a slushy coating. It’s pretty!
Deck and mulch are now white none on driveway yet. Hooked up blade on tractor yesterday. Ready and waiting.
32.7* at 10:04 on da Knob[1827'] and snowing harder. Sticking on my snowboard. Also sticking on the grass and truck.
Quick change over to moderate-heavy snowfall in Pulaskitown (elev 1920) …temp 36 …beginning to cover cars, grass, landscape area …winds calm
My grass is starting to turn white here at 1400 feet in south Roanoke County.
Since 8am, it has been snowing hard at times here in Floyd, about a mile from the Courthouse. But bare ground still has no accumulation; grassy areas have less than an inch.
It’s getting much brighter outside so I’d assume the ULL is starting to really wrap up and puling the moisture back into its core. I don’t think we’ll see snow this far north today.
Here at outpost 1000 feet we have snow falling at a good rate, but nothing sticking. Temp is down to 38 with a 32 dew point,and as I type this the flakes are getting heavier and bigger.
The elevation in goodview is pretty easy to figure out.I am pretty much at lake level(890 ft)or just a few feet over that.To determine what your elevation is just kinda estimate how much higher you are above the lake water level.It was snowing here earlier and cooled the temps down a few degrees.
Just picked up here on Windy Gap just off 116 right at the Roanoke County line, already sticking to ground here at 1500 feet.
Christiansburg–lots of snow falling heavily, and sticking! Big, heavy flakes at the moment. It’s quite lovely.
it is 37F and still no snow here around Hollins, elevation 1135ft
What a difference a half hour makes!
Base of Bent Mt.:
Snowing hard now. About a 7 on 1-10 scale.
Grass, deck, cars and neighbors barn roof are white.
Snow is mix of small-med flakes and little snow balls, no sleet.
Air Temp 33.9 (-.6)
Surface Temp (underneath a deck chair) 29 (-5)
No stickage on roads/sidewalk/driveway as of yet, but if the intensity keeps up like this, it won’t be too long.
It stopped snowing in Troutville…hoping it starts again
Nothing at all going on here in North Roanoke yet. Approx 1175 ft.
We’ve had a few flakes, and it clearly rained just a bit last night but not even enough to tick over my rain gauge to 100th of an inch. But it’s starting to pick up a bit and it’s sticking on my deck now. We’re at 34.0 degrees at 2022 feet here in Elliston.
Looks to be snowing heavily in Blacksburg. Watching traffic cam on US 460 business at Spradlin Rd.
Poor Kevin! He is spending all morning typing “be patient.” It is really hard for all of us snow lovers to be patient with the winter we have had so far. Please don’t give up on us Kevin. We are trying our best to wait till afternoon for the real snow. We are all so excited and afraid of having our hopes dashed yet again.
Huge snowflakes coming down hard in C’burg right now at 10:24. The surfaces are getting covered quickly….
Snowing HUGE, beautiful flakes in Fairlawn. Just trying to take hold in grass.
SE Roanoke City – elevation 1000 – storm started with snow at 10:20 AM.
here in Hollins 1135 in elevation the very wet snow is starting to penetrate the dry layer at the surface, won’t be long now
In VA near Bristol back at driving now. Rain all the way so far.
While you’re watching the snow, this is an interesting little ditty I picked up from Phil Hysell(@PHysell on Twitter), Big-Dog weather guy at NWS in Blacksburg, on how to measure snowfall.
http://www.cocorahs.org/Media/Training/Training_Snow.html
Now this is what I call a get even snow. Coming down hard and steady,temp down to freezing. Think I’ll go out and get a trailer load of wood in.
REALLY coming down here in the Ellett Valley in Blacksburg. Big juicy snow flakes!
Temp jumped from 34 earlier to 40 already with the sun shinning through the clouds.Hey John in Ruckersville i think you will see some rain or snow down that way later today,just by looking at the current radar from accu weather.Any weather watchers in the Clifton Forge or Covington area?If so let us know whats happing down that way!I have relatives down that way,would be interested to know how much snow there!
34/35 degrees in the Coyner Springs are with the first real sprinkle of flakes falling.
Kevin is there any chance this storm intensifies today or maybe some redevelopment of precipitation on the backside later today?
Looking at accuweathers radar maps. Earlier it was all snow in WV now (per the radar) it shows rain in Charleston. Any chance the warm air from the south wins out?
1/2″ of accumulation in Rural Retreat. Snowing hard with less than 1/10 of a mile of visibility.
Huge snowflakes falling now in Roanoke! How much longer till they stick?
Spoke too soon. Snowing hard near the airport. 1175 ft.
Newbie here. I have been following this blog and LOVE it! I’m a weather junkie. No snow here in Buena Vista. But the wind has really picked up. Also saw the sun trying to peek through the clouds about a half an hour ago. Keeping my fingers crossed for at least a little snow. Pretty please?!?
Yes-oh-yes! It’s SNOWING!!! in Raleigh Court! I’ve been keeping my mouth shut all this time, so I wouldn’t jinx it– but yes!!! It’s finally happening!
Thank you for all of the facts and explanations, Kevin et. al– I have been following the blog, and I’m learning a lot.
Have a great day, everybody– I’m gonna go sit on my couch and watch my snow
Has finally started snowing in earnest here in Salem near the Duck Pond (elev. 1088 ft). Was just teasing periodically with some frozen stuff until about 5 minutes ago. Peppering big pretty flakes, though nothing really sticking on the ground just yet.
Temp down to 35 here in Bburg w/big silver dollar sized snow flakes. All of a sudden the grass and the deck are snow covered.
HUGE snowflakes just started falling here (Eastern Mongtomery County in between Ft. Lewis mountain and Paris mountain. Not really sticking yet but temp is down to 35.
Headed out of Danville this morning just before 7 am and it was 46 degrees. Made it back to Culpeper around 10:15 am and the temperature was 37. Had a few areas of snow flurries but nothing of any magnitude. Wanted to avoid any potential travel problems later in the day. I have to say very disappointed that the forecast here now is for less than one inch. I am not a snow hater however and hope the area back home gets as much as they can.
Jared,
Please give me some hope and let me know what you think about our area.
Fairly drastic change from light to heavy snow with it sticking here at Cave Spring, ele 1400. For all of those with forks at the ready, I guess we will have to wait and see if the are good for sticking winter or eating a plate of crow.
Really coming down hard in Windsor Hills (elevation 1060) section on Roanoke City/County border. Temp down to 35.1 at 10:50 AM and still falling. Snow sticking to all dirt in flower beds and some grass. That laser pointer thermometer sounds ultra-cool, Ben!
After about an hour or so of nothing reaching the ground, we’re getting visible snow again.
Tis snowing like the dickens in Grandin Village in Roanoke!
Ground covered except under trees in SW Roanoke City…only took about 10 minutes!
Giant snowflakes coming down hard in Bonsack area of Roanoke County…1250 feet and 37 degrees. Sticking to deck now. Visibility about a half mile.
Wow, if this morning is anything like retirement might be like for me, BRING IT ON!! Set the alarm for 7:45, it went off, but I shut it off. Did not get up until 8:40, to find a rain/snow mix falling. 37.5* then. Now it is down to 35*, my area around the backyard forsythia is completely white, there is thick confectionary sugar coating on all grassy surfaces. snow is falling at a good clip. This changeover to all snow is a bit earlier than I expected. BTW, my title says the general area of where I am. Specifically, almost 1 mile up (south) of Sugar Loaf Mountain Road from the Allstate Building at corner of Electric Road and southern end of Keagy Road. More in a 2nd comment.
Nothing here in Covinton yet(1300ft) temp up to 42
Is phasing still on the table? The radar looks awesome, but I don’t see this going on for 15-20 hours as earlier projected. Will the heaviest bands still set up if it doesn’t phase? 2-4″ is great for the ‘noke but human nature says MORE!
Just started a new blog entry to take us through midday. Went over 200 comments on this one.
Light Snow falling here just north of the city limits of Bedford. Checking weather underground and weatherbug thermometers around town shows temperatures between 34 and 36 degrees with dewpoints still in the 20′s.
Dropped 2 degrees in the last hour (now 34.1..depoint 30.6) with moderate snow in Goodview. Everything is white except for driveway/road. Even that is starting to show signs of sticking.
Snowing hard in Fairlawn right now temp down to 32.7 sticking to deck and vehicles elevation 1,881
On 220 South, at “Summit” up the hill just past “Outback,” at 1,425-feet…
Have had a couple bursts of heavier, mid- large-sized flakes, now snowing
moderately, AND STICKING atop cars, rooftops, trees, grass, everywhere
except sidewalks and roads. ALREADY got 1/4″ – 1/2″… My “edu-guess”
regarding temp. is 35-37 degrees. Keep those Cards-and-Letters COMIN’ IN!!
It’s been snowing all morning in Martinsville – varying from heavy to light. The temperature is 34 degrees – down 8 degrees in the past 4 hours. It’s kind of light now but the cars are covered and the grass is somewhat white. Can’t believe what I geek I am – spent the past two days playing outside & now I need to catch up some work but I can’t give up this blog, so I’m running dual monitors – work on one and this blog on the other! It’s picking up again – dare I hope for a snow day tomorrow?
Heavy Snow here in Bedford near the Hospital. Sticking to ground and other elevated surfaces. WDBJ weatherbug site shows 32 degrees and dewpoint is 30 degrees.
snowing in mt.pleasant ( roanoke county ) no problems getting to foodlion, wet 2 warm yet but its snowing snowbirds,lol
Kevin,
Moderate snow at church in SW Roanoke County near your home. 39 degrees with the grass turning white. Big beautiful flakes.
I watched TWC earlier, and I want to tell what today’s “Daypart Forecast” for the 24018 zip code of my home showed. Apologies if someone has already mentioned this. And the following is probably for the lowest elevations of 24018 zip, which also includes high spots like Long Ridge, Mount Chestnut Road, 12:00 Knob, and the side roads off Bent Mountain Road but well below the summit of Bent Mountain. Noon: 33* and snow. 3pm: 33* and snow. 8pm: 33* and snow. Midnight: Ditto!! The Weather Channel is holding onto its snowfall forecast of 5-8 inches for Roanoke, while Jay Webb of “7″ forecasted 2-5 inches for most of the Roanoke valley, with an extra inch for the Bent Mountain area if extreme SW Roanoke County. I will make a forecast now, of a kind. And you snow lovers are gonna love this coming from the most prominent snow hater on this blog (“me,” for newcomers). I think that the TWC forecast has a better chance of coming true, especially using the snowboard method of measurement. I have not read through any comments after 8AM or so, therefore I am looking forward to catching up and learning more. :>) :>) :>)
Base of Bent Mt./Martins Creek:
Major intensity now. 9 on a 1-10 scale. Driveway and roads have gone from clear to covered in last 7 minutes. At this rate, there’ll be several inches on roads by noon.
30 degrees here at 2980′, near the Parkway at Slings Gap with a little over 1″ accumulation (so far!)
Just went for a ride to pick up the newspaper at the end of our road (Times will not deliver on our road).
Our dirt road is covered, the paved road is beginning to see some slushy accumulation.
Now I know how Linus felt, waiting for the Great Pumpkin…
Sorry Northern Snowman! It is just very hard to get snow east if the Blue Ridge it seems. I have lived up here since 2003 and the only year worth mentioning for snowfall was winter of 09-10. The other years have not had any snow accumulation to really talk about. Yes, I believe we have moved to a bad area if you want to see at least one decent snow a year!