2012.02.04
Some pieces on the board for potential winter storm next weekend, but will they connect?
Sunday will start damp and gray, again, but we may see some sun by afternoon, though it’s likely to be chilly with highs in the 40s. There is a weak disturbance moving through Sunday night and early Monday that has some chance to trigger a few rain or snow showers, but it seems to be a minor deal, for now. The week ahead will be another fairly mild and dry week, with highs in the 40s and 50s, lows mostly in the 30s, some up-and-downing as a few fronts pass through.
Let’s set the stage for what is likely to become the big weather talker for this week. For the first time this winter, there are some pieces on the board that, if they connect in the right timing, might — MIGHT — supply a setup for a potential winter storm over the eastern U.S. by the weekend. I’ve pulled out an image from a Global Forecast System model run today depicting the pattern as it’s expected to look on Thursday, linked here. Circled are some areas of strong atmospheric energy riding two different branches of the jet stream. This is a fairly common development in most winters — we typically end up watching maybe half a dozen similar setups in most winters, most of which DO NOT produce large winter storms for us – but it hasn’t happened at all this winter. If the energy in Canada and that over Mexico’s Baja California — many models stall it there for days– can “phase” or combine forces somewhere near the Gulf Coast, a powerful low-pressure system could develop and ride up the East Coast, throwing moisture inland as it also pulls cold air southward. If they can’t, a variety of lesser situations could happen, including a weakened low scooting almost due east across the Gulf and missing us to the south, zooming out to sea. Whether this develops depends on a lot of factors across the northern Hemisphere. The position of a polar vortex — marked “PV” on the map, essentially a giant swirl of extremely cold air — over Hudson Bay is very favorable for such a storm to develop (if its location is in fact projected correctly), and if nothing else, this polar vortex will likely supply at least a brief shot of some cold to very cold air. One huge question mark in this situation is the North Atlantic Oscillation, which has been in its positive phase for weeks. There are some signals that it may make a quick shift to negative, which would supply a blocking high over Greenland, increasing the probability of some legitimately wintry cold air arriving and even sticking around a bit for mid to late month, plus tilting the odds a little more in favor of this or possibly subsequent winter storms developing.
There are so many things that can happen that will NOT result in a winter storm in our region that skepticism remains warranted. But it is something for us to monitor this week to see how it develops. One thing to keep in mind now: Often, folks like to post temperature forecasts from various weather sites for days in advance and say something to effect that “XYZ says it will be in the 50s, so there can’t be a winter storm.” If this storm system develops as it might, or if the pattern changes significantly this week, ALL of that will be in flux, possibly even for just 3-5 days out. If this winter storm doesn’t develop for us and there’s little evidence of a change in the North Atlantic by mid-month, it’s very possible that we’ll only get a quick, modified shot of cold and continue on our merry way with this mild and nearly snowless winter.
Are snow lovers due to catch lightning in a bottle after so many weeks of non-winter, or is this simply a winter for those who love the warmth and hate snow to continue to enjoy? It could all be decided in the next 7-10 days.
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Kevin, please explain something to me and perhaps a few other folks out here who may be thinking the same way I am. Suppose next weekend is either a miss, or all rain for most of SW Virginia, or just a little snow in the lower elevations. Why can’t the NAO turn very negative later this month instead, and trigger one or two snowstorms after (say) Feb. 22nd? Crazier stuff has happened.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 4, 2012 @ 11:14 pm
That would be possible, Doug. I would think though that we would need to see some evidence of that starting to happen by mid-month in order for it to be developing later in February. I may not have been clear about what I meant in the next 7-10 days — not necessarily this one single possible winter storm, but evidence of a switch to NAO-. If it gets to be March before it happens, you usually don’t end up with so much a “wintry period” as kind of a alternately cool/cold period, usually.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 4, 2012 @ 11:22 pm
I just modified one sentence in the next to last graf to be a little clearer.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 4, 2012 @ 11:24 pm
Why can’t I write or say it this good? If I could only say it as eloquently as you did above, I would be a millionaire. But, I’m just glad to be here. Nicely done! Saw the news today about Andy G. Sad news. He did alot of great work too.
This next week will be as suspenseful as watching the wicked witch melt in the Wizard of Oz. It’s a cruel world.
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 4, 2012 @ 11:26 pm
Thanks for the post, Kevin. Hard to believe we are already in February. This “winter” has gone by pretty fast, and even though we haven’t had snow, its been another fun winter on the blog.
Comment by Roa10 — February 4, 2012 @ 11:30 pm
Hold on just a second…0Z GFS coming out now. A possible shift west in the coastal low? Things get interesting afater hour 132. Sunday 0Z GFS slams that Southwestern US ULL further south into Baja. Not good.
Be right back….
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 4, 2012 @ 11:33 pm
YES!!! 0Z GFS says GAME ON for next weekend!!!
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 4, 2012 @ 11:35 pm
Miller A!!! 0Z GFS is getting oh so much closer to a phasing. But pushes the upper energy in the SW too far south IMHO. Even better news is the cold air is further south from the PV in Canada. Upper wind pattern is more favorable for something to happen next weekend.
Getting better by the minute…
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 4, 2012 @ 11:44 pm
I’m not sure I care too much whether or not we see snow next weekend, I just want more moisture. This storm under-delivered again…just 0.11″ of rain thus far, continuing the dryness of the past few weeks.
Comment by Other John — February 4, 2012 @ 11:50 pm
A look at what Quag is referring to:
http://tinyurl.com/7subpcr
Taken very literally, the storm zips through on the GFS. Would be a 2-5 type snow.
I’m sure there’ll be 15 different variations on this over the next week. A long way to go before we sleep.
I won’t be on the blog much on Sunday. A little rest and fam time.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 4, 2012 @ 11:57 pm
Then the 0Z GFS goes warm again after hour 240
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 4, 2012 @ 11:59 pm
Could be a 1-hit wonder …
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 5, 2012 @ 12:08 am
Why would you believe anything at 240 hours+ anyways?
Comment by Alex — February 5, 2012 @ 12:08 am
Signing off for a while. I’ll approve a few comments during the day tomorrow if you post. May not be back on myself til Sunday evening.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 5, 2012 @ 12:28 am
Other John, I agree with your comment at 11:50 PM, in that I want more moisture, too. But I just got a very nice surprise. Went out with the pooch a few minutes ago, and I have 1/3rd inch in the gauge, and it is coming down at a decent clip, too. Maybe I will end up getting the 1/2 inch I was hoping for …. Around 10PM I checked the automated gauges from the IFLOWS (or former IFLOWS?) system, and almost nobody from Wythe County up through Pulaski, Montgomery, Floyd nor Roanoke areas had received more than a 1/4 inch, with several sites at 0.08 and 0.12.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 5, 2012 @ 1:31 am
Captain Quagmire, I wasn’t being sarcastic before when I said thank you. I just wanted to thank you because you would post that. And now, thank you for posting it! Just wanted to clear that up if there were any misunderstandings.
Hmmmm, I’d be fine with an overrunning situation but I would prefer the Miller A. Things can change a lot in a week. But at this point, I guess I should just be hoping for some sort of snow. I’m that desparate!!!!
Comment by Nick in the Elett Valley — February 5, 2012 @ 1:32 am
The folks in Northern and Central Europe
know about the Oscillation…or know of its effects
as the jetstream is diving south over there..
http://edition.cnn.com/2012/02/04/world/europe/europe-cold-snap/?hpt=hp_t3
Comment by Joe — February 5, 2012 @ 2:18 am
Heres another graphic of the jetstream
over Northern Europe..approaching 150 knots..
Its a bit hard to make out what is where..but to orient you..
the strongest portion of the jet
is approaching the British Isles..
theres a relatively calm spot
over Northern and Central Italy
with the Southern branch of the jet
obscuring the boot of Italy and Sicily.
http://www.wunderground.com/global/Region/eu/JetStream.html
Comment by Joe — February 5, 2012 @ 2:29 am
Light snow falling,31 ground getting white.Oh well a little bit of snow is nice.I`m looking forward to next weekends storm.Everyone enjoy the big game today!
Comment by Mike in Marshall — February 5, 2012 @ 6:48 am
The “nearly always wrong” Old Farmers Almanac is lining up with snow lovers for next weekend. You have an ally!!
Feb 10-14: Snow, then flurries, cold;
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — February 5, 2012 @ 7:29 am
Nurse Snow – have a safe trip back – dense fog warnings for Interstate 81 this morning – around Christiansburg.
Currently foggy up here on the ridge, 37 F and we have had “0.58″ inches of rain. Other John, you were wondering where the rain was – I think it all came last night. I, too, only had .11 by last evening.
Comment by Doppler Carol — February 5, 2012 @ 7:32 am
KM – I hear what you are saying about temp forecasts in the future; however, I cannot help but be discouraged that NWS has the coldest high temp day of the next seven this Sunday 2/5 at 43 degrees. If 2/5 is the coldest day in the 2/5-2/11 time frame, I think we need to get our forks ready. Quagmire – (post at 11:44pm) – what was that you said earlier about model hugging? You are killing us! I also am getting the feeling that next weekend (late Saturday into Monday morning) could be a significant upslope event west of I-81 and above 3,000′, but not buying snow for most of us below 3,000′ and certainly not for ANYONE in Virginia east of the Blue Ridge (Lynchburg, C-ville, DC metro area, etc.).
Comment by Blacksburg Mike — February 5, 2012 @ 8:40 am
Peeking in briefly on Sunday morning.
Mike: Yes, there are more ways this can NOT happen for snow than ways it can, so have your forks in hand. (6Z GFS shows it out to sea again, for instance.) I’m just saying that the development and movement of the system itself will change the temperature scheme IF it happens in certain ways. Actually, except maybe for Feb. 11, I would not be surprised a bit if every single one of those days you listed were in the upper 40s-mid 50s. I listed them the other day in a comment: February in the last 10 years alone is replete with examples of days in the 50s preceding significant snow events the following day, so that alone does not preclude something happening given the right ingredients coming together in the right way. And that’s the big IF on this situation …
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 5, 2012 @ 9:38 am
Kevin, you’ve done an exceptional job of describing the factors needed to line up to give us snow lovers a faint glimmer of hope in this piece. I appreciate your efforts. You could’ve just as easily said something along the lines of “there’s a 10% chance of some snow next weekend…too early to tell now, but we’ll see” and I’d have been happy! Knowing HOW a system could align to bring us some white stuff bolsters my hopes considerably. Thanks for your extended efforts!
One thing concerns me though. I don’t see the data concerning the SOSCVD model. Since this model has ruled the predictions all winter, I feel we need to include it.
SOSCVD? The Sammy Oakey Snow Control Voodoo Doll
Comment by SoRoCo Ben — February 5, 2012 @ 11:19 am
Just like you, Doppler Carol, I got that wonderful surprise with the rainfall amount. I had just about 1/2 inch (probably 0.45) in the gauge at 8:30 AM (I did not empty it at 1:30 AM). My mostly green lawn continues!! I wonder how much the man from “Da Knob” got ….. And how about you three, Rick of Wyhtev., Other John, and Nick of Ellett Valley …. how much rain?
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 5, 2012 @ 11:21 am
Sunday 0Z Models Update: (back peddle, mea culpa?)
Nick, no misunderstanding, I just forgot about posting the drought monitor.
I’ve been called out by Blacksburg Mike for hyping up next weekend. My apologies to everyone for the last time for my model hugging & hyping from last night. OK Blacksburg Mike, you win. I hereby stab the fork in winter. It is over, it is done. No more winter. No more nothing. Feel better now?
Going solely with the GFS was totally wrong on my part. Yes, Sunday’s 0Z GFS has a Coastal Low & did depict for many areas along the eastern US to be too warm for snow. It also showed a partial Jetstream phasing. From hour 144 on, the 500mb graph displayed a large (ULL) short wave energy stuck over the Baja Peninsula which stays out of the picture & does not phase which means the event will be a mediocre with a low forming along the SC/GA coast where you would have rain on the coast & possible rain/snow inland west of US29. What IF it does phase? Then, next weekend’s potential event would be a significant to major event. As Kevin eludes to above, A million things can & will go wrong with this as the 06Z GFS depicts with Kevin’s #4 scenario (out to sea). Right now, the odds say that next weekend’s event will not happen. This potential event for next weekend as I said earlier is the most significant possibility for any snow event to come out of the models since Snowmaggedon back in October.
Also, did you see my comment about the models going into HAL mode? What I am referring to is the models are still showing data errors as they are prone to being totally out of whack until about 3-4 days out. The consensus is too progressive with the northern Jetstream & shunts out any full phasing which complicates things. Since last week, the models have said something may happen & that’s been the 1 constant so far. Now the trend may be going back to the pattern we have seen so fat this winter.
What does the 0Z Euro say?
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html
Euro says Mike is right & I’m totally wrong. No phasing, no storm.
What about the 0Z Canadian?
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0z/cmcloop.html
CMC has a major coastal Low for next weekend. In Mike’s defense, if you take what it says literally, CMC says it’s too warm for snow from US29 east from Northern NC northward. However, from interior sections west of US29 from Western VA, WV, Central/Western MD there is the possibility of a significant snow greater than 4” above 3000’. The CMC’s performance this season has been awful.
Another look:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/hde_50.gif
Mike, you will more than likely be right about all of this in the end as 3 out of 4 models confirm what you say. If these 4 things occur, then we may have to re-evaluate what may or may not happen for next weekend.
1. Full Jetstream phasing
2. Baja energy to get involved (southern jet)
3. Polar Vortex to come farther south with cold air
4. Negative NAO
In my weak & pathetic defense, last week, the models did not depict the extremely cold temps & historic Eastern European Blizzard of biblical proportions 2 weeks ago that is happening now. What are the chances that same thing can happen here in the US? Slim to none.
IF…IF…IF…IF…is such a huge word.
Ladies & Gentlemen of the blog jury, you have the facts presented before you. Now it is time for you to decide. Quags…guilty or not guilty of model hugging & hyping. Guilty, I shut up & go away forever, Not Guilty, I’ll let Kevin bench that outcome as he is the Judge on this blog. Your honor, I rest my case.
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 5, 2012 @ 11:27 am
Just checked my gauge again, and still MORE good news, an additional 0.15 inches. YAY!!
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 5, 2012 @ 11:29 am
one last piece of evidence for Mike to stick the fork in me & winter.
Sunday 12Z GFS from PSU e-wall:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/MRF_12z/mrfloop2.html
Next weekend’s event out to sea. That’s all folks.
Plea bargin time. Quags Guilty as Charged! Permanent Ban with no chance for parole.
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 5, 2012 @ 11:36 am
Nick of “Ellettsville,” you made a comment at 8:37 on Thursday night that you wondered if WSLS was extremely biased towards warmer weather in their forecasts. I never noticed that, but I will try to remember to take a few extra seconds in the early morning to see if that is true, at least at times. I always watch Channel 7, but maybe I can get Channel 10′s quick forecasted high, too. I do know one thing. I watched Alyssa Corfont, a WSLS weather forecaster (and meteorologist, too?) do the weather at 10 PM on Channel 8, the local Fox channel. She predicted a Sunday high of 48 for Roanoke, much higher than what the NWS (43*) and Jay Webb (44*) were predicting at the same time. Channel 7 and Jay W. reduced their forecast at 8:45 AM for today to 42*. But in Ms. Corfont’s defense, she did say that her forecast was dependent on the sun breaking out for at least a while this afternoon, otherwise ROA would struggle to escape the lower 40s. And who knows, she might be right with her 48 degree forecast ….
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 5, 2012 @ 11:53 am
Quagmire: It’s a week away. No charges are filed. No forks are stuck. Let’s relax and let the atmosphere do its thing.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 5, 2012 @ 12:27 pm
Temps went down to 34 F by 10am. But now they are heading back up. Fog is leaving and it looks like it is trying to clear up.
I love reading the weather hype from all of you guys. What ever scenario plays out next weekend – I think we heard it hear first!
Comment by Doppler Carol — February 5, 2012 @ 12:37 pm
My vote for Quagmire: not guilty of model hugging per se. Captain, you do hug them……..each one. As I see it you get excited when the models are going “your way” and dial it back when they don’t, all the while presenting solid facts for your opinion. Some of the folks have “snow goggles” on no matter what the evidence. You, my friend, will at least own up to making an error. Do I hear an amen from any of the readers of this blog?
Comment by Mark in Pulaski — February 5, 2012 @ 12:39 pm
12Z GFS Quagmire refers to is only about 200 miles east of perfect position for a winter storm in SW Va.
http://tinyurl.com/8xy4r22
Hardly a door-slammer on an event a week out. In fact, with the GFS’ typical SE bias, it might end up running up the Appalachians and raining on us.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 5, 2012 @ 12:46 pm
Amen Mark! Captain Quagmire, you are fine in what you are doing. I like the extra insight!
Doug, I mostly watch WDBJ or WSET, but usually in the morning, I watch The Today Show and I see the WSLS morning updates. What I mean by biased is not only do they forecast warmer weather but the meteorologists themselves hate cold weather and it is evident in what they say. That’s why I prefer WDBJ’s weather crew a lot more and I also like WDBJ more as a news station because their production value and whole newscast is just more professional and has more quality to it.
Also Doug, I got around .33 inches of rain. Seems about accurate. It looks like I always get the average of what Other John and you get since I’m smack-dab right in between you two geographically speaking.
Comment by Nick in the Elett Valley — February 5, 2012 @ 12:49 pm
Nick, I truly hope that I can meet you some day. I agree COMPLETELY with what you said in the last sentence of your 2nd paragraph at 12:49. I also prefer WDBJ7′s weather team compared with WSLS. On the few times that I watch Channel 13, they have a very good team, too …. but their focus is appropriately on Lynchburg and areas east of the Blue Ridge, so that is the only reason that I do not watch that channel more often.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 5, 2012 @ 1:01 pm
Quags, my two biggest problems with some of your posts is (1) that yuo have the same problem I have, being too wordy and long with your comments, and (2) that you adopt “cheerleader” language when describing a model or group of models that show a favorable outlook for snow. I can understand it if it is 2 days or especially a day before the event, but really rubs me the wrong way when it is 4 or more days in advance. Of course I am biased, but I think (and hope) that I would feel the same way if there was a model expert here who was a snow hater like me. I would also object to him or her yelling, “Game off, snow haters!! NAM and GFS take the Feb. 11 storm out to sea!!” I like Kevin’s brief statement above: “Let’s relax and let the atmosphere do its thing.”
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 5, 2012 @ 1:08 pm
I’m glad the storm isn’t over us on the models. We have the energy, that’s what we need this far out. Heck, I’ll be fine if the models still aren’t showing the storm over us by Wednesday, as long as the pieces of the puzzle are still there.
This is clearly the most loaded the gun has been all winter. Let’s see what we can hit.
Comment by zach — February 5, 2012 @ 1:15 pm
I was just about to take a look at the CPC’s outlook for the NAO, but decided to look at the AO first. There could be a change happening there in ten days, but this one would not be good for cold weather fans. And it probably won’t happen, either. It has to do with a look at the spaghetti strands of the AO ensemble Mean AO outlooks. Most of the models that they use show a switch back to positive territory for the AO after the 14th or so. But the GFS AO outlooks page, the one with the 4 bar graphs of the AO, shows the AO staying in negative territory, with ups and downs. I can say categorically that the AO outlooks page has been much better at predicting what the AO will do up previously this winter, so that a switch to a positive AO is doubtful. I will try to provide a link to an earlier page of the AO separately.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 5, 2012 @ 1:29 pm
Correction to previous comment. I intended to delete the word “up” in the next to last sentence. The link to AO: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml Hopefully this link will at least connect to the CPC website.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 5, 2012 @ 1:32 pm
Yay!! Link worked. It shows the primary page about the AO. If one of you wants to see the details of the two AO outlooks, just go halfway down the page to the bullet in dark black entitled “Outlooks” and click on those two links. They are today’s “edition.”
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 5, 2012 @ 1:35 pm
Now for the link to the NAO primary page: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml Let’s see if this puppy cooperates ….
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 5, 2012 @ 1:40 pm
Yes, somehow I did it correctly. Again, go down to the bullet entitled “Outlooks” and click on the two possible links. This time the ensemble is the one showing all the models for the NAO staying in positive territory, while the 14-day forecast for the NAO (the bottom graph under the GFS outlooks link) shows the last 3 days with a negative NAO. But instead of a steadily decreasing NAO there, the outlook for day #12 is more negative than days 13 and 14. These graphs are a bit more pessimistic about a switch to a negative NAO than yesterday’s, but we shall see what the upcoming “editions” show.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 5, 2012 @ 1:45 pm
Quagmire-I was only responding to you cautioning me earlier not to put too much into any one model. Did not mean to call you out, and I certainly still enjoy your thorough analysis. Just trying to maintain realistic expectations on this potential event. I have learned over time that we can look at all the models, and weather forums, etc., but in the end the folks that typically end up being right are the local mets and the NWS. If a potential winter event is not mentioned in their long term forecasts (which at this point it is not even remotely alluded to) it is probably not going to happen. But, maybe this will be the time that we are ahead of them on seeing what may be coming. Let’s hope.
Comment by Blacksburg Mike — February 5, 2012 @ 2:07 pm
My son watches 13. He works on the lower end of the lake, so naturally 13 weather is closer to what’s happening to the east.
Comment by wdbrand — February 5, 2012 @ 2:20 pm
Another nail (fork) in the coffin for Blacksburg Mike:
12Z Euro says no storm whatsoever.
12Z CMC is to be ignored.
12Z GFS is plain stupid like me.
FORK INSERTED…PEACE OUT
KM, did you see 90L from the NHC off Cuba?
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 5, 2012 @ 3:19 pm
Capt’n, you are doing one fine job. So, up front, I don’t care whether it snows or not. You keep me informed on graphs and then break them down to where I can even see what’s going on. Sometimes, since I don’t know Jack about how to read them. I figger what you say is what the chart/model shows for that timeframe and nothing else. You also help analyze the models and in turn , that takes a load off Mr. Myatts back. There are probably only a handfull of folks on this board that can do that and I look forward to it since I might learn a little more about how to understand them. Jest don’t go anywhere, Thanks for your service.
Comment by wdbrand — February 5, 2012 @ 3:49 pm
Quags, I would never find you guilty, and I enjoy your posts. You have an optimistic world view, don’t take things personally, and admit when you are wrong. If half of my students had this kind of a personality, my life would be blessed.
Comment by diane — February 5, 2012 @ 3:49 pm
A dumb question. Just noticed Invest 90 off thr western tip of Cuba. Is this the low the models are showing for next weekend that’s suppose to head off the coast or a new player that might push next weekends system back towards the coast?
Comment by wdbrand — February 5, 2012 @ 4:01 pm
Man, what a crunky day! Hope tomorrow brings some sunshine back into our lives. Quaggsy, I love your bold and informative comments! Don’t ever feel the need to apologize when your predictions aren’t 100% accurate. The NWS sure doesn’t! You may be a snow-lover, but you’ve got more meteorological knowledge in your pinky than I’ll ever have in my noggin. Keep on posting your ideas!
And Ben, while I would never resort to voodoo to keep the snow at bay, I certainly can’t divulge any details on what’s powering the anti-snow shield. It’s a pretty fragile dome, and I don’t want to be responsible for cracks and fissures in it! Enjoy the game, y’all!
Comment by Sam Oakey — February 5, 2012 @ 4:09 pm
Just as I posted my comment at 2:07pm, the NWS discussion makes its first mention of a possible gulf storm in their Sunday afternoon discussion. The official NWS forecast; however, still makes no mention of any precip at all for next weekend. But, they have at least “remotely alluded” to the possiblity now, even if it is buried in the forecast discussion that no one with the exception of us weather geeks really even looks at. Keeping the faith.
Comment by Blacksburg Mike — February 5, 2012 @ 4:25 pm
Totally agree with you Zach. I would like to be pleasantly surprised by the southeast bias correcting itself on these models rather than bitterly disappointed if the storm was over us and then went farther to the west giving us rain.
Doug, what I meant to say is that I rarely watch WSET but i still watch that more than WSLS. It just shows how bad (in my opinion) WSLS is if I watch a news station that barely covers the NRV. I used to live in Charlottesville and they never got WSET despite being 1 hr. from Lynchburg. I’m assuming WSET’s viewership is Lynchburg, us (barely though), Roanoke, Danville, and maybe Farmville?? Unless if they get Richmond news or C’ville news.
For those who want a really good local news station, NBC 29 in Charlottesville is excellent (or at least when I used to live there). They should expand their viewership. But no, I’m NOT a UVA fan, let me just say that right now! I’ve always been a Va. Tech fan. Now, let’s see, tonight, I’m pulling for the Giants. I’m a big Jets (so is my whole family) but the Jets floundered and didn’t make the playoffs this year and I usually hate both the Giants and Pats, but the Pats are on my enemies list since the Jets always have a history with them. Haha. Same with the Dolphins. So go Giants! Sorry if anyone is a Pats fan on here.
Comment by Nick in the Elett Valley — February 5, 2012 @ 4:36 pm
38.5 here in Goodview at 4:40. On the rain side, we received .16 today and .20 yesterday.
One of the tips on here has been to follow the pattern of the models/forecasts. Unfortunately with that, the forecast for this coming weekend for Snowshoe now says partly to mostly sunny after a day and a half of saying snow showers.
If we all just “relaxed and let the atmosphere do it’s thing”, we wouldn’t have much need for this great blog. Keep doing your thing Quagmire…gigitty!
Comment by Brian — February 5, 2012 @ 4:47 pm
Ok Doug: I’m a bit slow reporting my 0.50 rain as well.
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — February 5, 2012 @ 5:43 pm
Quag: I’m going to reconsider filing those model-hugging charges with all these nails in the coffin you’re hammering in on a system a WEEK AWAY!
Bburg Mike: I largely agree with your 2:07 comment about the local mets, especially those at the weather service. I’m kinda surprised to hear you say that after you were a rather harsh critic of some NWS rainfall verification in the late summer/early fall. But if every single forecast model on every run between now and tomorrow showed a full-fledged blizzard for our region next weekend, the local weather service wouldn’t suddenly jump to a 100 percent chance of snow. You’d probably get a 30 percent chance, then a 50 percent chance, etc., as long as the indications pointed the same away. It was 3 days — not 5 or 7 — before Dec. 18-19, 2009, when the weather service starting mentioning it as a possibility. That’s not a criticism at all — it’s a very smart way of operating when you are in the weather forecasting business.
Being a weather discussion blog offers me a lot of freedom that wouldn’t be the case if I claimed to be a forecaster. If you notice, nowhere on this blog, nowhere in the any promotional material the Roanoke Times uses, does it mention “forecasts” or “forecaster” in regard to this blog or me. Sure I’ll throw out a few ideas on what might happen, even my best guess as to what will happen when we get close to an event (usually doesn’t vary much from the weather service), but the purpose is to discuss not just current and past weather realities but future possibilities. And that’s where the fun of weather lies … even if the results don’t always conform to our wishes.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 5, 2012 @ 5:55 pm
KM-you are correct in my previous criticism of the NWS, but again, I recognize that they are by and large very accurate, and I may have been a little to harsh earlier. Also, I realize you do not claim to be a forecaster. Really think some of my posts (about Quagmire) have been taken a little to personally today. I completely appreciate your analysis and have learned a ton on here, from both you and Quags. Just wanted to poke at Quags a little because he has sometimes gone from one extreme to the other this winter (as many of us have, including me!) on what will or will not happen. Thanks for all you do!
Comment by Blacksburg Mike — February 5, 2012 @ 6:12 pm
Brian: I guess what I meant by “relax” is avoid getting to hyped up by the forecast model ping-pong and lets see what the atmosphere give us. Weather is played out in the air, not in computer chips. They’re just programmed the best they can be to try to keep up!
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 5, 2012 @ 6:13 pm
When is the last time we have had an average winter with regards to snowfall in this area? Seems like it has been a while.
Comment by Nick in the Elett Valley — February 5, 2012 @ 6:14 pm
Mike: My commentary on not being a forecaster was really kind of me pontificating and not really a response to you (started a new paragraph for it). I know you were not suggesting anything about this blog. (I think you were too harsh about Tropical Storm Lee — I thought the overall verification of the area was pretty good).
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 5, 2012 @ 6:16 pm
Nick: Well, there was 2009-10 with more than double the annual snowfall — 43 inches at Roanoke and 54 at Blacksburg. (I’m using 18 inches at the normal now for Roanoke — consistent both with the 1981-2010 climate norms and closer to the averages dating back to 1912).
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 5, 2012 @ 6:21 pm
What role, if any, will Invest 90 in the Gulf have on next weekend. Might it push the storm back towards the coast or is it the next storm.
Comment by wdbrand — February 5, 2012 @ 6:23 pm
Let me get caught up on the tropical disturbance, I had read this was a possibility, haven’t had a chance yet to see specifics (having a hard time finding info on the National Hurricane Center site).
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 5, 2012 @ 6:26 pm
Just read the discussion on Invest 90L, which is technically a “non-tropical” low that could become a “subtropical storm,” a hybrid tropical/non-tropical system. Best as I can see it would play little role in any late week setups as it will scoot eastward past Florida by midweek.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/052346.shtml
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 5, 2012 @ 6:57 pm
Greetings from sunny southern California. Enjoying the cold and rain?
Comment by Brandon R — February 5, 2012 @ 7:37 pm
It cleared off tonight, Brandon. Now we have, uh, moonshine!
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 5, 2012 @ 8:12 pm
Kevin, in the very unlikely case that this tropical low becomes a named storm, would it take the next name from last season that ended Nov 30 or would it be considered the first one of the upcoming season that starts on June 1?
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — February 5, 2012 @ 8:19 pm
The name lists are by calendar year. It would be Alberto.
BTW … speaking of named storms in February, Thursday was the 60th anniversary of the unprecedented and so far unrepeated Groundhog Day Tropical Storm that hit Florida in 1952.
http://www.palmbeachdailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/palmbeach/weather1/entries/2012/02/02/60th_anniversary_of_groundhog.html
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 5, 2012 @ 8:50 pm
Hello to Kevin, Doug Griggs, Sam Oakey, and all the other regular contributors, hey guys I just wanted to check in and let you know that I still regularly follow the blog. I have noticed that some of you frequently trade around links to various NWS support centers (CPC, HPC, SPC, NHC, EMC, etc) so I would like to recommend to you a single NWS web page that shows links to all the centers plus links to all the local weather forecast offices plus links to a lot of other information.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/organization.php
I use this as my goto page whenever I want something from NWS
Comment by Fletch Hinson — February 5, 2012 @ 10:49 pm
Fletch: That looks like a really well organized page to link to various NWS sites. Thanks for sending that — and for continuing to follow the blog.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 5, 2012 @ 10:58 pm
Thanks, Fletch, for that link. Right now I am in mourning …. Pats lost the big one with a 4th quarter collapse. And to a hated NYC team again. Giants deserved it. Although they got help from the football gods with three bouncing balls, two of them when Giants’ offensive players fumbled but the ball went right to a teammate yards away.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 5, 2012 @ 11:21 pm
Another small benchmark gets reached tomorrow here in ROA …. 10 hours and 30 minutes of daylight.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 5, 2012 @ 11:22 pm
I don’t think the Pats should have just let the Giants score the TD with a minute left. I understand the idea that they didn’t want the Giants to walk the time down to 3 seconds and kick a chip shot field goal, but a professional team should never just let a team score. You don’t know that the defense couldn’t have forced a fumble or blocked a field goal, or who knows, they could have fumbled the snap or the kicker choked in the clutch. There was no less chance of that happening than the Pats driving 80 yards in a minute for a TD.
Sports analysis over, back to weather …
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 5, 2012 @ 11:25 pm
Well, I strongly disagree with you about Belichick’s decision. NY could have fallen on the ball two more times, which would have run it down to less than 15 seconds (NE would have called time after the first QB knee only), then had basically an extra point kick for the winning FG. If New Engl. had 2 timeouts left, I would agree with yout. If I had been a NYG fan, I would have been furious with head coach Conklin and the Off. Coordinator for NOT doing just that. They gave the Pats a slim chance of pulling off the miracle, when they had a chance to seal the deal on their own. Sorry for bringing up the Super Bowl at all. I wish I was off tomorrow.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 5, 2012 @ 11:38 pm
Sports, politics and weather have this common thread — I’ve just seen too much goofy stuff happen over the years to ever think a sure thing is a sure thing until it REALLY is a sure thing …
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 5, 2012 @ 11:43 pm
Doug, sorry about the loss. But don’t worry! The Pats have gone to the Superbowl a lot more than the Jets have! For me to actually feel bad for a Pats fan is saying a lot (since I’m one of the bigger Jets fans out there). I’m just glad it was a fun, exciting game to watch. I can guarantee you the Pats will be roaring to go next year. I see what you mean Kevin. I originally thought the other way. But your point makes a lot of sense. I’ve never seen someone that badly (or awkwardly) not want to get a TD. The ending was interesting too…Gronkowski almost had a hail mary tip-off game-winning grab.
Have the models changed much in the past 24 hrs? Hopefully, they can start trending towards a pattern.
Comment by Nick in the Elett Valley — February 6, 2012 @ 12:05 am
Trend is not your friend if you’re wanting a lot of snow. I think overall it’s going to be a little better for some smaller snow possibilities in the next week or two.
Just put up new entry.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 6, 2012 @ 12:08 am