2012.02.07
UPDATE 8:15 AM: Some snowflakes possible in parts of SW Virginia today
UPDATE 8:15 AM: A band of mixed rain and snow showers has entered the region and may move across the New River Valley and possibly into the Roanoke Valley in the next couple of hours, though it may dry up some headed easward. (Latest radar linked here.) Additional precipitation is also possible later today with another band currently in Kentucky. Little accumulation is expected with daytime temperatures moving above freezing, but heavier bands could leave a brief dusting, especially this morning when it is close to freezing. An inch or two is possible along and north of the I-64 corridor later today, and perhaps in some other areas above 3,000 feet. END UPDATE
There may actually be some snowflakes in the air in some parts of Southwest Virginia by Wednesday afternoon and evening as a weak area of low-pressure zips eastward. Air temperatures near the surface are marginal, ground temperatures are unusually warm for February, there’s not much moisture to work with and the best atmospheric dynamics for heavier precipitation are passing to the north, so don’t expect much in the way of accumulation, especially south of Interstate 64. With temperatures rising into the 40s before any showers arrive, precipitation is likely to start as rain, and may stay as rain in lower elevations from Roanoke south and east. But the air aloft is cold enough to support snow, and if it can overcome the warmer “boundary layer,” or temperatures in the lower part of the atmosphere, snow will start reaching the surface, starting in the higher elevations and working down. If moderate to locally heavy snow can sustain for several minutes to an hour in any location, it’s possible that a slushy coating on grass could occur, but the best chance of seeing accumulating snow (an inch or two) lies in the higher elevations of eastern West Virginia (possibly edging into the highest ridges of western Virginia) and through the northern half of Virginia. Even in those locations it may be spotty. Be aware of some slushy spots on roads if traveling north on I-81 Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Behind the low and cold front, temperatures will drop about 5-10 degrees for Thursday, then rebound again into the upper 40s-mid 50s for highs Friday before another stronger cold front pushes through for the weekend.
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Awoke to snow this am. Dusting on the cars and rooftops. Mostly snow with some rain mixed in. They say we may have more mixed precip as the day goes on.
Comment by Chapel Guy — February 8, 2012 @ 7:50 am
We have a dusting on the roofs and deck and light snow continues at this time. I see Cold Air is comin’. The NWS does not have us getting above freezing from Friday night though Monday morning.
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — February 8, 2012 @ 8:10 am
Light snow here in Woodlawn, east of Galax…dusting on deck,cars and rooftops. At least it’s something to look at besides sunshine!!
Comment by Clarkdocvet — February 8, 2012 @ 8:11 am
We had a couple flakes that accumulated on the decks and cars this AM as I left for work. Many of the flakes looked more conglomerated, but they were in the shape of the Star of David, and about the size of dessert sprinkles…very cool looking. And looking at the Radar, it looks like a quick dusting might even be possible for some parts by 9 or 10 am, if temps hold…
Comment by Other John — February 8, 2012 @ 8:11 am
It was 30 earlier this morning. Light frost on the roof; no wind and mostly cloudy. Radar (Intellicast) shows the snow just west of us. I will watch for it. Doesn’t look like it will be “The Big One” – sigh.
Comment by Doppler Carol — February 8, 2012 @ 8:12 am
What happened to all of the storms? Any snow (besides the little they may or may not happen Saturday) on the horizon?
Comment by Bill — February 8, 2012 @ 8:32 am
Looks like we return to mild after this weekend’s cold shot because the Greenland blocking high isn’t setting up and other factors leading to cold start to unravel. Some possibility of mixed precipitation event in transition about Tues-Wed, but could just as easily be rain, as there doesn’t appear to be well positioned cold-air damming high.
Pattern can’t get thick moisture and cold in here at same time, one pushes the other out.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 8, 2012 @ 8:35 am
Very tiny snowflakes just started floating around – 9 am; 32 F here near the Doppler.
Comment by Doppler Carol — February 8, 2012 @ 9:02 am
I went out to get wood this morning and my thought was “this feels like snow”. Sure enough it has now started to spit snow here in Christiansburg.
Comment by Nate — February 8, 2012 @ 9:10 am
Hey Kevin, have you ever thought of posting pictures on your blog. It sure is beautiful over here in Giles.
Comment by Pistol Pete — February 8, 2012 @ 9:16 am
Darn near up to 1/2″ in Wytheville. Call out the National Guard.
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — February 8, 2012 @ 9:19 am
Doppler Carol…I don’t think we are going to see the “big one” this year. I believe this is going to be the great snowless winter for some of us. Although, I have seen some pretty good snowfalls come in March.
Comment by TinaB in Montgomery Co. who is sick of these stupid practically snowless winters for some of us — February 8, 2012 @ 9:22 am
Light snow began in Pulaskitown around 8:00 am …now falling steadily …grass and shrubbery becoming white …street surface and sidewalks wet
Comment by Walter — February 8, 2012 @ 9:22 am
I’m just about ready to stick a fork in this winter, in terms of the chances for getting a modest snow accumulation from a single storm, of 2″ or more, or for that matter even a decent total accumulation from multiple storms. Here’s my odds for the rest of winter for additional accumulation:
6″ or more: 1% chance
4-6″: 9% chance
2-4″: 10% chance
T-2″: 40% chance
T only: 40% chance
Looks like today’s system will have that trace amount of snow, either with no accumulations because of how warm the ground is, or at the most a dusting on some elevated surfaces. In a winter when things just keep failing to come together, I’m just not feeling it. I hope I’m wrong though.
Comment by Other John — February 8, 2012 @ 9:33 am
Hmm, no sooner than I type that do I see the comments about snow accumulations in Wytheville and Pulaski…
Comment by Other John — February 8, 2012 @ 9:34 am
Steady snow currently falling in Radford, starting to stick to parked cars & grassy areas
Comment by RP — February 8, 2012 @ 9:34 am
Now the spitting snow has turned int a steady light/moderate snow here in Christiansburg.
Comment by Nate — February 8, 2012 @ 9:35 am
A few flakes floating outside my window in southern Roanoke County.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 8, 2012 @ 9:35 am
Snowing decently in Blacksburg right now, but it’s all melting at the moment.
Comment by Other John — February 8, 2012 @ 9:36 am
A few flakes (other than me) here in South Roanoke.
Comment by Steve Murray — February 8, 2012 @ 9:44 am
We probably have a 1/2″ or so of wet snow on everything but the roads out here in Narrows. It’s pretty fine, but it’s still coming down pretty hard. We’re close to freezing here so it may turn soon.
Comment by Tayree — February 8, 2012 @ 9:46 am
A few flurries at 9:45 here on da Knob. In spite of D. Carol having the water tank out back set in the blow hole mode, which it’s doing just like usual.
Comment by wdbrand — February 8, 2012 @ 9:58 am
Just a friendly reminder as I broadcast a pirate signal for serving my time for my convictions from far away on a deserted tropical island formally occupied by Gilligan, The Skipper, Ginger, Mary Ann, The Howells & the Professor that when I said it, I meant it. Winter is done. Fork inserted. Winter 2011-12 will go down in history as the least snowiest, normal temperature, slightly above normal precipitation La Nina ever recorded for the US with the exception of Alaska. La Nina will continue thru the end of the Summer, then will we see neutral ENSO conditions for the remainder of 2012. Weak El Nino returns in Spring 2013.
All kidding aside, there will no more winter weather events that will have the potential to produce snow over 2″ or ice over 1/4″ for the eastern US for the remainder of winter. There will be some cold temps to deal with & very small flurry events but any chance for a signficant winter weather event (snow greater than 2″ & ice greater than 1/4″) happening is ZERO.
This winter’s pattern is not going to break. What I am worried about is that Spring will be very wet & severe with another very hot and dry summer. When I get enough coconut juice to run the generator (end of March), I’ll write a winter weather summary & review of what went wrong for Snow Lovers or better yet, what went right as far as La Nina is concerned. This winter has been a very good La Nina pattern.
Comment by Captain Glen "Convicted Model Hugger" Quagmire — February 8, 2012 @ 10:06 am
Light snow begins to fall in Rockbridge County at 10:00 a.m.
Comment by Lexingtonian — February 8, 2012 @ 10:12 am
January 2012, 4th warmest for the contiguous United States
http://www.noaa.gov/features/02_monitoring/jan_stats.html
Comment by Captain Glen "Convicted Model Hugger" Quagmire — February 8, 2012 @ 10:13 am
A few flurries here in eastern Roanoke County started around 930am. Some flakes rather large. Now it looks like the sun is trying to break thru.
Comment by William — February 8, 2012 @ 10:16 am
Quag: I’m going to disagree on one point — I think La Nina was a secondary player at best in this pattern. It’s been all about the extreme positive Arctic Oscillation most of the winter, the lack of Greenland blocking and the persistent low vortex over Alaska. Not sure it will go down as warmest or least snowy nationally — it won’t locally, now that it appears 1918-19/1919-20 were BACK-TO-BACK SNOWLESS WINTERS for Roanoke (looking more and more like that record is legit) and 1931-32 remains a runaway winter for warmest. (This one has a shot at 2nd if it gets pretty warm in last 2 weeks).
There is never ZERO chance until a season is entirely literally over and in the books. Diminishing chances, yes, but there are just too many contrary historical events to say zero.
Besides a heightened severe season and possibly a hot, dry summer, both of which are definitely possible, I’m still concerned about a severe spring freeze in late March or early April, if the blocking arrives late. At this point, if we don’t have a cold period by early March, it would be better for gardeners and farmers and orchard operators if we just steadily built into spring and didn’t zoom either to summer or backtrack to winter.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 8, 2012 @ 10:20 am
An addendum to my 10:20 a.m. comment … one thing that may be significant about La Nina is that it was a second consecutive La Nina winter, which historically tend to be low-snow winters locally (not this low, though). Actually wrote about that way back on Oct. 7.
http://www.roanoke.com/weather/wb/299387
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 8, 2012 @ 10:28 am
Welcome back Cap’n Quags!
Comment by Mark in Pulaski — February 8, 2012 @ 10:57 am
Another moderate-locally heavy band of precipitation — much of it snow — moving into the New River Valley. Maybe hard enough for some accumulation on grassy surfaces and such, though air temperatures near the surface are a little above freezing at most locations.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 8, 2012 @ 10:59 am
All rain in Radford now
Comment by RP — February 8, 2012 @ 11:03 am
It is dreary looking down here on Melrose in NW City Roanoke. It “looks” like it should snow outside, but whether it does or not will be interesting. I hate being teased LOL
Comment by Shanon "Nurse Snow" — February 8, 2012 @ 11:05 am
WDBJ reported flakes around their station earlier. So it will be offiicially a trace of snow today for Roanoke.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 8, 2012 @ 11:08 am
Weather blog commenters doubtlessly have the best senses of humour on the planet! Steve talking about the “flakes”, Rick’s request for the National Guard, and Quaggy reporting from Gilligan’s Island all gave me a hearty chuckle this morning. No matter what the weather is, I can always count on this forum for knowledge and a smile! BTW, 42 degrees and no flurries yet in downtown Roanoke.
Comment by Sam Oakey — February 8, 2012 @ 11:22 am
We are easily over 1/2″ on everything except roads.
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — February 8, 2012 @ 11:26 am
If you’re at 42 (temp not age) you’re probably safe from flakes today Mr. Oakey.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 8, 2012 @ 11:30 am
GFS Models on the 16th show massive rain storm going northeast. Kevin, if that thing moves east would it bring snow instead?
Comment by Pistol Pete — February 8, 2012 @ 11:38 am
The issue with the storm on the 16th is — as it looks now — there simply is nothing that would force the storm track farther south or hold in cold air. The high pumping in cold air this weekend slips offshore and turns winds to southeast. There is no high in southern Canada to create a cold air damming situation. And of course, no blocking high over Greenland to force the whole jet stream south. So as of now it looks like it tracks into the Ohio Valley and brings mild air and moisture northward for rain — some chance of encountering cold air to start for mix or brief ice, but probably not even that.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 8, 2012 @ 11:44 am
33 degrees here in Woodlawn with moderate snow! Grass and trees are white though none on the roads. Has been snowing steadily since 7am,but the heaviest within the past hour! Sorry other snow lovers that I can’t pass this on to ya but close your eyes and think of pine trees covered in white and grass tips poking through in the yard.
Comment by Clarkdocvet — February 8, 2012 @ 11:46 am
Grass and mulched areas starting to turn white at my office near the VT airport in Blacksburg, but the Weatherbug camera at Riverlawn ES near my house shows just wet…no white.
Comment by Other John — February 8, 2012 @ 11:52 am
Back and forth, back and forth. I am not sure anyone knows what is going to happen. First we’re going to have a long cold spell and then we are not, and then we are … and so it goes.
Comment by Bill — February 8, 2012 @ 11:53 am
Bill: If we knew what was going to happen with weather, there would be no use for a weather blog! We would just get issued a forecast that was 100 percent right all the time and no need for discussion.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 8, 2012 @ 11:55 am
Ya’ll are killin me, I don’t stand a chance dag gum it!
Comment by Frosty the Snowman — February 8, 2012 @ 11:59 am
You need a plane ticket to Europe, Frosty!
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 8, 2012 @ 12:02 pm
Kevin: You are right! Frustrating!!!
Comment by Bill — February 8, 2012 @ 12:05 pm
We had some flakes early this morning..and now it’s coming down pretty good here in North Roanoke. My wife is also reporting moderate snow in SW Roanoke. Now if only I had a camera at my house in Goodview.
Comment by Brian — February 8, 2012 @ 12:07 pm
Some kind of precipitation coming down in Garden City. Looks like maybe a snow/rain mix. There are definitely a few flakes.
Comment by Jennifer — February 8, 2012 @ 12:10 pm
Snowing moderately in south Roanoke County now, elev. 1350. Not sticking though.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 8, 2012 @ 12:11 pm
My hubby is in Rocky Mount right now and he said it is snowing pretty good there. Anyone on the board from there?
Comment by Shanon "Nurse Snow" — February 8, 2012 @ 12:26 pm
Things are getting coated in snow now in Blacksburg. It’s coming down just heavy enough to make it stick to cars too now. We had maybe a tenth of an inch of accumulation earlier, before it melted. Now probably another tenth, or maybe a tad more. Nice to see…haven’t had nearly enough this year.
Comment by Other John — February 8, 2012 @ 12:52 pm
Well, you outta be up hereh on da Knob Kevin. About an hour ago, snowflakes as big as soccer balls twas coming down. Went outside to make sure they won’t shingles blowin off and a flake hit my hat and knocked it down over my eyes. Another one hit my head and knocked the hat off. Then another hit me in the head and knocked me slam down. I come back inside.
Comment by wdbrand — February 8, 2012 @ 1:10 pm
I’m in Rocky Mount and it was snowing up until 10 minutes ago. It started as a heavy mist around 12 and I guess evaporational cooling turned it into snow. There’s nothing on cars or the ground though.
Comment by Matt — February 8, 2012 @ 1:10 pm
And just as quickly, it’s mostly melting again…
Comment by Other John — February 8, 2012 @ 1:17 pm
Snow level seems to be abour 1200 feet in south Roanoke County …drove in and out between slushy snow and sloppy rain at about that elevation several times.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 8, 2012 @ 1:28 pm
We had about a 1/2 inch of snow that collected on the deck and then on the bare spots of the yard. Then about 20 mins ago it looked like it would clear up with a brief shot of sunshine. Now back to cloudy but the snow is going, going – gone. Currently 40 F.
Comment by Doppler Carol — February 8, 2012 @ 2:10 pm
Drizzle and Rain here in Downtown C’ville.
My radar has the rain/snow line just south of Winchester and through Loudoun county.
I’m an avid snow hater, so this winter has been A-ok by me so far. Though, to be honest, I wouldn’t mind just a little snow before its all said and done. I like how it makes the trees look, but I don’t like driving in it.
Comment by scott — February 8, 2012 @ 2:19 pm
Now, that was my kind of snow. I had the day off. It only accumulated on the grass. My snowman was not very big, but in this non-winter, it was the best I could do. We had just under an inch.
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — February 8, 2012 @ 3:24 pm
Have had some snow mixed with sleet and rain this afternoon but nothing major. Just cold and cloudy and damp. More of the winter that never was.
Comment by Chapel Guy — February 8, 2012 @ 4:13 pm
Haven’t Roanoke County schools only been delayed one or two times this year with no closings? That’s probably a record right there, at least for the past couple decades.
Comment by Roa10 — February 8, 2012 @ 4:34 pm
Roanoke County wasn’t out much last winter either owing to the timing of 2 of our 3 December snow events — 1 was on a Saturday, 1 was on Christmas. There wasn’t much after that.
According to a 2009 Roanoke Times story, Roanoke County and several other localities have an exemption to the Labor Day school start based on the following formula: Taking the five years in the last decade with the most number of weather-related cancellations, averaging those years, and if they’re more than 8, they can start before Labor Day. Since 2009-10 and 2002-03 are still within the last decade, I think Roanoke County’s exemption is likely to be safe, as this mild winter will simply be tossed out and not figured into that average.
Whether it’s a record or not — I would think there weren’t many cancellations in 2001-02 either. Both of the very small snow-to-sleet-to-ice-to rain events that winter occurred on weekends.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 8, 2012 @ 4:45 pm
NAM/GFS both advertise a fairly widespread light snow event on Saturday. Not talking very much, probably not an inch most places, but maybe some more flakes floaing about when it’s colder. At least some mood snow on some cold northwest winds.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 8, 2012 @ 5:33 pm
Kevin, comment 29, you were “tooting your own horn.” Guess what? You should!!! I was going to do exactly that for you, but I just got home. Your research of the repeating La Nina winter influenced me in my prediction for how much snow ROA would get. But it looks like I will be way over, too, even tho’ I predicted a measly 9 inches for Big Lick. I wish I had gone with my gut feel back in October and invoked the Donna Cramer rule (FEI, Donna Cramer is my older sister who lives in normally snowy central Mass.) and made a comment here that I thought that this winter would be a mild one. But I was afraid to jinx things. But even I did not even DREAM that both Dec. and Jan. would be about 5 degrees warmer than normal! And I agree with you completely, Kevin, that the major influences for this winter were the AO and more recently the NAO.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 8, 2012 @ 5:40 pm
Meanwhile, I see (your funny comment at 1:10 PM) that you got into the “kickapoo juice” for lunch today, wd. Excellent. You lucky. I had to stay sober.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 8, 2012 @ 5:48 pm
I just looked at the CPC forecasts for the 3 major oscillations for the upcoming two weeks. If you are one of the 85%, don’t even bother asking about them. No good news there anywhere for a real cold pattern. Another Griggs prediction goes down the tubes. I thought for sure that the NAO would have gone negative by now, but even the 14-day GFS outlook for the NAO doesn’t show anything “promising.”
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 8, 2012 @ 5:53 pm
Interesting that the GFS continues to develop a colder pattern once again after the storm late next week. Do I believe it? Very doubtful, especially considering the worsening teleconnections (nao,ao,pna) and the model’s tendency to ‘warm up’ once the time frame gets into more of a short/middle range. The CPC maps do lend some support however. Even though the 6-10 day map has us in a massive warm region (through next weekend), the 8-14 day map has continually trended slightly colder, almost scraping us in the ‘normal’ region as of today. We shall see.
Comment by Roa10 — February 8, 2012 @ 6:13 pm
There will be a tendency for cold air to pool in the west over the next week or two, and in time, a modified version of that air mass may wobble eastward.
I think the idea of a “wintry period” — a week or 2 of days with highs mostly in the 30s or lower — is just about off the board now. Tiny, tiny chance it could happen last week of February or first week of March, but no long-range signals point that way. Even if all the indicators went in the favor or prolonged cold in early-mid March, you don’t end up with “wintry” that late in the season, you end up with cool/occasionally cold period.
As we get to late February and March, unless there is a long-term cold pattern already in place like 09-10 or especially like 59-60, snow chances typically come not from long cold periods but from much more short-term situations involving an upper-level low rounding a trough at just the right time. March 1, 2009, was the perfect example of this, with a 3-9 inch snow across the region by Monday morning and then 83 degrees days by Friday afternoon.
So that is why I’m not saying “stick a fork in it.” Winter, if you define it by having mutliple days of cold, may end after this weekend. Snow chances from here on out will be highly dependent on short-term setups that can’t even be remotely foreseen yet. Obviously, a long run of above-normal temps could reduce or eliminate those chances, but as long as there are occasional even short-lived bouts of Arctic air, there’s always a chance.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 8, 2012 @ 6:25 pm
We had our third snowiest day of the winter today, with 0.2″ piling up in Blacksburg. I hope everyone stayed safe out there.
Comment by Blacksburg Mike — February 8, 2012 @ 7:28 pm
Maybe a top four snowiest day on Saturday too!
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 8, 2012 @ 7:29 pm
Roa10, I think Roanoke Co has had one delay, the day after that massive .4 inch snow in early January. Roanoke City hasn’t even had that. Last year we (City) did get 2 snow days and a couple of delays at least. What a bummer of a winter.
Comment by Jennifer — February 8, 2012 @ 8:06 pm
@ Jennifer: for most of you, definitely. I think most of my fellow letter carriers would describe it as a “winner of a winter.” I certainly do, although I must admit I really do feel sorry for those of you that enjoy snow. I am not joking about that.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 8, 2012 @ 8:18 pm
I just keep reminding myself that it has snowed on my birthday before (in April)– it could maybe possibly iffy wishfully still happen…
Comment by Blossom — February 8, 2012 @ 9:04 pm
Headed to Snowshoe again Friday… looking for my second snow fix of the year. Snowed 8 inches while I was there January 2nd. Looking for at least 6 Friday thru Saturday night.
Comment by Matt — February 8, 2012 @ 9:37 pm
Where is the Captain Quagmire?? TWC is showing light snow on Saturday for a large chunk of WV and also some parts of Virginia west of I-77, of course.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 8, 2012 @ 9:51 pm
Looking at the differences between the 12z NAM and tonight’s 0z NAM run, it almost appears that it tries to bring back the coastal for the weekend, but moves too far offshore only brushing SE Virginia and NE North Carolina. Still, it has precip in areas along the coast that 12z did not. Could this be a trend? GFS has no coastal storm to speak of, however.
Comment by Roa10 — February 8, 2012 @ 9:53 pm
If you want snow here for the weekend, you don’t want a coastal. The energy may well jump us into the coastal — that happens quite a bit. Without the coastal, a disturbance may slip through and trigger a little light snow. Coastal only works for snow here if it can get started much farther south.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 8, 2012 @ 9:55 pm
Apologies if someone earlier today mentioned the following: what on earth is being forecasted to happen over northern Miss., northern ‘Bama, and western Tennessee on both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC forecast maps?? On BOTH maps that region has a 60% chance of being wetter than normal!! A cut-off low?
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 8, 2012 @ 9:56 pm
Doug: Some repeated Tennessee Valley/Ohio Valley storm tracks are responsible for that. If it verifies, it keeps sweeping mild air over us.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 8, 2012 @ 9:57 pm
Makes sense, thanks Kevin.
Comment by Roa10 — February 8, 2012 @ 10:00 pm
A. “Oh.” B. “Thanks.” C. The snow lovers are really going to look forward to that …….. NOT!!
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 8, 2012 @ 10:07 pm
I should amend my comment to “you don’t want a VERY STRONG coastal.” Christmas 2010 was a good example of getting a light-moderate snow from a disturbance going into an eventual coastal low.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 8, 2012 @ 10:19 pm