2012.02.13
Sprinkles or flurries possible Tuesday, but maybe something bigger for the weekend?
It would not be completely bizarre for you to see a few raindrops, snowflakes or sleet pellets in Southwest Virginia on Tuesday. There probably will be some of that kinda stuff in eastern West Virginia and west of I-77 in Virginia. Farther east, it will be much less likely. A rather disorganized storm system moving in from the west will be doing the “Southwest Virginia split” with its thickest moisture staying to the south and the best upper air dynamics going north, not that any of it is that impressive. Add to that a very dry air mass parked over our region, drying out in the downslope flow over the mountains, the possibillity of some stronger storms near the Gulf robbing moisture, and a generally weak flow of moisture from the Gulf to start with, and there’s just not going to be much moisture left by the time it gets to us. But some precipitation is possible on Tuesday.
There will likely be a more organized rain system on Thursday as temperature warm well above freezing, upper 40s to mid 50s likely for highs the latter three days of this work week. But that’s not what’s starting to gain buzz. Several forecast models, led by the formidable European model are showing a low pressure system developing near the Gulf Coast this weekend, moving northeast and spreading moisture into well-timed cold air dipping south into our region Sunday and/or Monday. (12Z European model linked here — note the position of the strong low in South Carolina and the blue colors marking cold air in place), If this scenario played out, widespread snowfall, possibly heavy, could occur. Being still at least five days out, there are numeorous things that can complicate this scenario, the first of which being that the low could be a fiction of silicon chip imagination that never really develops. More possible would be for the low to go out to sea, cut farther inland and bring warmer air in for rain, or take a track that just misses us to the south and snows on the Carolinas. It appears there are some features developing that could put this storm in the realm of possibility, including a possible “50-50 low” developing near Newfoundland that would cause the jet stream behind to buckle south and slow down, perhaps allowing energy from both the northern and southern branches of the jet stream to “phase” or join forces and create a substantial storm near the Gulf Coast.
Keep in mind there was some possibility of this same thing at a similar distance out about a week ago — that storm did end up developing, but was well off the East Coast and ran out to sea quickly. This scenario may have a little more going for it (except that the cold air it’s working with will not be as deep as this weekend’s Arctic surge), but still plenty that can go awry between now and the weekend. Let’s keep an eye on it and see where we stand in a couple of days before honking the horn any louder. Persistence forecasting in this particular argues for heavy skepticism until there is convincing evidence otherwise.
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Ok, I’ll bite! I not only want snow, I NEED snow. I’m hoping this develops around Monday
. I have a 3 day weekend and would love to extend it to a 4 day weekend LOL
Comment by Shanon "Nurse Snow" — February 13, 2012 @ 11:14 pm
I hope this happens. Don’t know if I can take another disappointment.
Comment by Brandon R — February 13, 2012 @ 11:22 pm
Just as I am typing this, the 0Z GFS is now coming on board with PD3!
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_0z/avnloopnew.html
That nibbling just became a full blown bite!
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 13, 2012 @ 11:58 pm
Notes about Tuesday 0Z GFS…
Again remember the GFS has a very south & east bias with gulf coastal storm tracks. Don’t be surprised to see this come back west & north in the coming days & runs.
I may need to un-stick that fork now…
Brandon, I’m up to 20%.
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 14, 2012 @ 12:01 am
Sorry about the reposts. But it goes in line with what Kevin says above.
Remember that the GFS was terrible the last few runs & showed nothing. Now all the models are slowly working towards the same solution.
However 5 important variables for this event to occur can still go wrong & there could nothing again & we can keep the fork in that big juicy steak. The variables are:
1. Blocking High in SE Canada…A Stronger High could push track further south, weaker may bring it north. If this is just right (Goldilocks), the track will be in the slot. No Blocking High, no storm.
2. The Northern Pacific Jetstream…still very progressive. 0Z GFS now bring in the vigorous upper level short wave system into play with the event. This upper short wave will ride the northern Pac Jet from Washington State to the 4 corners, then hitch a ride with the southern jet to catch up with the surface Low in the Gulf region. This phase must occur or the fork stays in. This will be the “Kicker” & forces the track to go more ENE-NE rather than drive the Low that develops in the Gulf region to speed up, go due east & go out to sea thus becoming a complete miss to our south.
3. “50/50 Low”…needs to develop in the Atlantic (latitude 50 north/longitude 50 west) & aid with blocking by keeping the Blocking High (#1 above) in place.
4. Southern Pacific Jet …needs to grab a lot of energy & moisture from the Gulf & amplify as well altering the upper wind flow direction from due West to NE from the Gulf of Mexico to up the eastern seaboard.
5. Cold Air…A storm system will move to our north on Friday sweeping another arctic front behind it, only this time, it is not as strong but still ushers in colder air. Will it be cold enough and will it be in place?
What about the teleconnections? Well, Mr. Griggs, not to steal your NAO thunder, but you made a brilliant assumption about the NAO. FYI, it’s going to negative & west based! Also the PNA dips negative, both just in time for this coming weekend. This is also a good sign this will now more than likely happen.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/12zlinegraphs.html
If everything falls into place with this one, it may have very well been worth the wait.
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 14, 2012 @ 12:03 am
Kevin..,
My AV charts 72 hours out dont show much for you guys..
heaviest precip noon Thur expected to be SE Ala..and through
Wstrn Ga…with some areas of heavier rain trailing into the gulf..
cold front from Great Lakes to Ky Ala..then into Western Gulf..
The only portion holding frozen precip in Ohio and the Great Lakes
area…Friday Noon show cold front well offshore Va thru Cntrl Fla.
Comment by Joe — February 14, 2012 @ 1:52 am
NWS forecast for Sunday (as of Tuesday morning): Mostly sunny with a high of 47. Seems they see this as “silicon chip imagination”. You would think now that the “event” is only five days away, they would at least have a forecast of “mostly cloudy with a high of 37″ if they thought there was any reasonable chance of this happening. I think as KM already mentioned HEAVY skepticism is warranted.
Comment by Blacksburg Mike — February 14, 2012 @ 6:27 am
0z models still trending for PD3?
Comment by Todd in SWcity — February 14, 2012 @ 6:57 am
I do like NWS, but their forecast of 50′s this weekend is absolutely delusional. Only one model has that, which happens to be the only model showing no storm (GFS).
They’re probably just as skeptical as we are. Though it’s not a great model, DGEX has us in 10-12 inches for the second straight run.
Comment by Ice storm lover — February 14, 2012 @ 7:14 am
0Z Euro has the weekend storm very plainly moving from Mobile to off the Delmarva, tightening up rapidly. My question about it looking at the temperature structure would be whether it starts out a hint too warm and maybe a bit more inland at first — a rain to snow episode, perhaps.
Mike, I think the NWS is more going with out to sea rather than non-existent at this point.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 14, 2012 @ 7:16 am
HPC has put a morsel in its mouth:
THIS WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ON ITS NORTHERN EDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DAY 5…AN UNPRECEDENTED EVENT THIS CURRENT COLD SEASON.
Full discussion linked below:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd
Precip map through 7 a.m. Sunday suggests a Gulf storm turning northeast (most of any winter storm potential would be later than this)
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95e12p48iwbg_fill.gif
HPC weather maps, though, still show a more out-to-sea solution:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=6&fcolor=wbg
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 14, 2012 @ 7:22 am
We’re sitting in a snowglobe over here in Narrows right now. It started just a few minutes ago. I could see it coming over the mountains from WV. It might not last long, but hey – it’s SNOW! Hoping for more this weekend…
Comment by Tayree — February 14, 2012 @ 7:38 am
If this Sunday thing happens, it’s gonna be a classic late February/March kinda snow. It might be 50-plus degrees Saturday (which would undoubtedly trigger lots of comments about “this ain’t gonna happen, it’s too warm!”), 30-32 (maybe even 33 in downtown Roanoke) while it’s snowing and then it’ll start melting bright and early Monday. With snow cover and behind-the-storm northerly flow, you might get a decently cold Monday before the warmup starts in earnest on Tuesday. There is no sharply cold Arctic air mass to tap this time, just a decently cold seasonal one. Snow will be entirely the product of a favorable storm track, a momentary atmospheric setup and a rather ho-hum cold air mass, a step colder than “marginal” I would say.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 14, 2012 @ 7:41 am
Let me back up on one thing — there is a sharply cold Arctic air mass in Canada, so it is tapping that. I haven’t seen any models project that getting pulled southward though. So it taps the Arctic air a little without bringing it fully southward. And it’s likely a central US low starts pulling up warmer air by Tuesday of next week.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 14, 2012 @ 7:49 am
Radar does show some patchy preciptation now. A lot of it is drying up as it crosses the mountains. Enough reaching the surface for snow in Giles County, per Tayree’s 7:38 comment.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 14, 2012 @ 8:13 am
Snow flurries in the Radford/Burgs area too.
Comment by Other John — February 14, 2012 @ 8:18 am
Happy Valentine’s Day everyone – hope you weather blogger guys have gotten your Valentine something good!
It is 36 F up here on the ridge and it is lightly snowing. You can barely see the flakes. What a nice Valentine’s present for me.
I still have my fork in my hand poised and ready to either stick it in or back away and put the fork down. Hmmmm- we shall see. I am very skeptical this far out. Check back with me on Saturday or Sunday.
Comment by Doppler Carol — February 14, 2012 @ 8:20 am
Im calling it..No school on Monday!
I’ve already told my coworkers -(teachers)!
I called the early Jan Clipper that put us out for 2 days!
Its coming!
SNOWDAY!SNOWDAY!SNOWDAY!
SNOWDAY!SNOWDAY!SNOWDAY!
SNOWDAY!SNOWDAY!SNOWDAY!
SNOWDAY!SNOWDAY!SNOWDAY!
Comment by Pistol Pete — February 14, 2012 @ 8:23 am
Aren’t there some schools out Monday for Presidents Day anyway?
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 14, 2012 @ 8:27 am
Kevin,
You posted the link to the final HPC forecast map (issued Monday afternoon). What’s more interesting is this morning’s preliminary forecast map for Sunday morning:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day5nav_pre.html
This shows a surface low pressure near the Georgia coast.
Comment by Jason in Riner — February 14, 2012 @ 8:29 am
Tiny, almost not there flakes here in west Hokieburg. I had to look for them after seeing the other posts. So if this alignment of the weather planets happens, will I be stuck in a blizzard coming back from Alabama on Sunday? Maybe I’d better toss a blanket, a snow shovel, and some Power Bars in the back of the state van.
Comment by HokieTrax — February 14, 2012 @ 8:42 am
Yes, but not us..its a make up day if we need it. We missed 2 days in Jan. for the Alberta Clipper. So we have to go..Unless it snows
Comment by Pistol Pete — February 14, 2012 @ 8:45 am
What do things look like for snow chances down this way IF the storm does materialize this weekend? From what I can tell, it may be too warm here, or very marginal at best.
Comment by Rachel in Knoxville — February 14, 2012 @ 8:48 am
Rachel: The Euro track would be too far north for much snow in Knoxville. A bit farther south and east you might get some backside snow, though the temperatures are still pretty marginal. The more wrapped up the low becomes, the more cold air could get pulled down.
Pete: Where are you?
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 14, 2012 @ 9:09 am
Kevin, you got 75 comments yesterday with rather mundane weather. As long as the models keep the excitement up, you may be getting 2-300 comments. This is what I referred to with a previous post, most seasons we get quite a few like this, some pan out, some don’t. This season there have been very few potentials to show up at all, even just to disappear later. Whether it happens or not, at least we have a little more interesting weather to follow. I was ready to just give up and let Doppler Carol start her gardening blog, since my efforts last year suggest I could use some help.
Comment by Trevar — February 14, 2012 @ 9:10 am
Kevin.. in Giles
Comment by Pistol Pete — February 14, 2012 @ 9:21 am
42 degrees with snow flurries in Goodview. What a winter.
Comment by Brian — February 14, 2012 @ 9:33 am
Trevar, you bring up a good point. Everybody remembers the big hits from 2 winters ago, but most don’t remember that we probably monitored at least twice as many other winter storm threats that season that either turned into rain, minor snows or missed us entirely. This season, using a very liberal definition, I would count this as winter storm threat No. 5 — late October (a real near-miss on something that would have been historic), early December (rain that barely changed to snow in some places before ending), the mid-January clipper (a decent hit for some of the region, miss or minor for most), this past weekend’s low that formed off the coast and this one. That’s not much “winter wonderin’” for a typical season.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 14, 2012 @ 9:47 am
Quag’s Tuesday 0Z model update…
Let me get this off my chest now…I HAVE NOT PULLED THE FORK OUT ON WINTER YET…I did take a little nibble & did not like what I tasted. Odds are that this possible event may not happen, IMHO.
Yes, the 0Z runs still on course for a possible snow event for the weekend. The models are slowly getting there but I already see huge problems starting to happen.
1st is the cold front that comes thru on Friday for the east coast. It has timing & strength issues. Will it arrive quick enough to be in place & will it bring the cold air needed for the snow? Yes, it will arrive but maybe a little early, however the cold air will be marginal (warmer but not ideal) at best to support snow.
2nd is the “Kicker” (upper level vortex-ULL) coming in from the West Coast. The Northern Pacific Jet will remain very strong (progressive-fast) & so will this upper system. It will not weaken as fast per the GFS & CMC depictions. This feature has an even chance of kicking the Gulf surface Low out to sea to our south & move the entire system out of the picture before it has a chance to even develop & turn NE towards the Mid-Atlantic. Regardless of what happens, this “Kicker” will not allow the track to go all the way up to New England & become a true Noreaster. But on the other hand, there is a good caveat to the “Kicker.” If this upper short wave can interact & converge with the Gulf surface Low, then PD3 is on. The ULL will enhance the storm’s strength & kick it in the tail to make the storm stronger. In other words, the stronger the Gulf Low, the better chances you’ll have for a stronger coastal storm.
But wait Snow Lovers…there’s good news!
Tuesday’s 0Z Euro shows the kicker will make the Low stronger as it sets up a major east coast winter storm for the Mid-Atlantic. Euro also brings the track a little further west & north. In short, western half of NC, most all of VA, eastern WV, MD may see major snow amounts in the range of at least 8-12” plus. Too soon to say where, when or how much for sure. But if you live in VA & reside from I-95 west all the way past the coal fields, you are in the target zone if PD3 comes to life.
12Z updates later…
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 14, 2012 @ 9:54 am
You know — cold air is just about always pretty marginal for snow in the latter half of February or March. I can’t think of a single recent example that wasn’t. It’s usually 45-55 degrees and sometimes warmer the day before a snow, too. It’s just the way the latter part of the season goes.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 14, 2012 @ 10:31 am
DT is really talking this storm up on Facebook. Kevin, do you have any guesses yet on how many inches we could possibly be looking at if this storm comes through as suspected?
Comment by Shanon "Nurse Snow" — February 14, 2012 @ 10:42 am
We had over a foot of snow, an amazing temperature drop and very strong winds up at Snowshoe last weekend. Winter came back with a vengeance. At times on Saturday morning, the visibility was down to about 20-30 yards and the sky itself was dark. I thought we’d get thunder and lightning to go with the heavy snow. I want more. Bring on PN3.
It was interesting to see the upslope snow machine in action as Snowshoe was literally hammered with bands of snow for 2+ days then it was like someone flipped a switch and the skies suddenly cleared Sunday afternoon. Yesterday morning I was able to get some awesome photos of the new snow and the deep blue skies from the top of Cupp Run.
I also noticed on the drive home how the outskirts had very little if any snow from the upslope snow machine.
Comment by John from Ruckersville — February 14, 2012 @ 10:47 am
Kevin, you make a good point about that. I remember seeing stories about people during the ’93 storm that were hiking the Smokies the day before, totally unaware of what was about to be unleashed upon them and their unsuspecting hiking//camping trips.
Comment by Other John — February 14, 2012 @ 11:07 am
Alright Cap’n, get off the fence and make a bold prediction. As a confessed snow-hater, the first part of your comment had me breathing a sigh of relief. Then, however, you end up your report with possible 8 to 12+ inches out of this Sunday storm. Fortunately, the company defibrulator revived me before permanent heart damage could set in!
Comment by Sam Oakey — February 14, 2012 @ 11:11 am
12Z GFS…
Tuesday’s 12Z GFS is not good. This GFS run is much warmer & shows more of a rain event than snow for the Mid-Atlantic. Coastal low goes out to sea to our south. Still 5 days out. Let’s see what the ensembles & other op. models say later. GFS just took the fork and stuck it in deeper.
Problem #1 & 2 coming to fruition with GFS…warmer air & kicker comes in faster keeping low to our south.
Tuesday’s 12Z GFS operational loop from PSU:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 14, 2012 @ 11:31 am
Problem #3 with 12Z GFS…no 50/50 Low
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 14, 2012 @ 11:35 am
Sam…you want a prediction now? Not to worry, the GFS is your friend.
Here it is…LEAVE FORK WHERE IT IS FOR NOW!!! If you get a phone call from the Winter Family by Friday PM to reserve a Parlor Room at the North Chapel, have it ready for Mr. Old Man Winter. You will provide him with a good obituary won’t you?
GFS just put the Brandon Probability-O-Meter back down to 15%
It is still possible that the GFS could very well be wrong as it usually is this far out & there could still be snow for this weekend. I’ll make the very bold prediction Friday after the 12Z models come out.
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 14, 2012 @ 11:44 am
12z GFS isn’t too awful. Still has enough cold air for some snow. Plus I like the high pressure over the Great Lakes. Like this setup, time to adjust.
Comment by zach — February 14, 2012 @ 11:57 am
Some are saying we should ignore the GFS this far out, that it is inaccurate. I know nothing of reading maps and understanding them, just putting that out there though.
Comment by Shanon "Nurse Snow" — February 14, 2012 @ 11:58 am
Sorry to tell you guys, but I cancelled my trip to Winchester this weekend (for reasons other than snow). So now that I am back to wanting this snow, it definitely won’t happen. That’s my new forecast.
Comment by Jennifer — February 14, 2012 @ 12:06 pm
This many days before Dec 18-19 2009 storm the GFS had a puny low crossing Florida going to Bermuda. That said, even the 0z Euro looked almost too warm. Cold air is #1 issue the way I see it. I think it will be there if track and strength of low are right, but not by a bunch.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 14, 2012 @ 12:12 pm
@ KM 9:09 am comment: So I suspected. I imagine the low would really have to be pretty spectacular to get some decent snow here. However, I may be traveling to Asheville this weekend, so perhaps better conditions for bigger snow there. At any rate, I will be rooting for all the snow-lovers out there in blog-land for this weekend.
Comment by Rachel in Knoxville — February 14, 2012 @ 12:27 pm
12Z CMC & UKMET still show potential for possible snow for Mid-Atlantic.
Sorry Sammy, this is why I can’t get off the pot & make that ONE TRUE BOLD PREDICTION just yet. I’ll keep the fork in for now. Like I said, Friday’s 12Z model runs will be the final stand. Everything will be on the line then. CMC & UK runs bring me back to 18.667% on the Brandon Scale.
My good and dependable friend Mr. Euro will be along shortly to tell me the truth. He will set me free.
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 14, 2012 @ 1:31 pm
Kevin, I enjoy your weather blog and your back and forth with your regulars as they try to interpret all the forcasts and models with you. I seldom comment and usually just come by to get your take on upcoming weather patterns…you’ve got a pretty good record of getting it right most of the time, I have to give you that. If this upcoming system get’s together for a good school canceling measurable snowfall, it’s gonna make for one happy 11 year old in my house…he’s been walking around with his lip poked out for a couple of months over the near misses and the mild weather. I keep telling him that winters not nearly over and share stories of the late season snows of years past like 93, but he just wants snow now! Maybe he’ll get his wish yet. Even if this one tuckers out, there is still nearly a month window for it to happen judging from years past. Keep up the good work.
Comment by Huntersdad — February 14, 2012 @ 1:35 pm
12Z Tuesday Euro update…
Sammy…
You must have plenty of pull with my friend Mr. Euro. He says go with the 12Z GFS. That 18.667% has just been cut in 1/2.
Canadian & UK agree
GFS & Euro agree.
FORK STAYS.
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 14, 2012 @ 1:37 pm
Just looked at weather.com and they have pulled the high down to 43 on Sunday so far.
Comment by Shanon "Nurse Snow" — February 14, 2012 @ 1:46 pm
Mid day runs to me – - are encouraging if you like snow. Here’s why.
1) NEVER be in a bullseye 5 days out.
a) You don’t get your hopes up, so if it fails, they were never too high.
b) Models always a just, and nine times out of ten they adjust NW.
2) The 50/50 low on the Euro is WAY south, kinda shunting the storm. On the GFS it is non existent. Likely the two kinda meet somewhere in the middle.
3) I like the track. The surface maps don’t exactly reflect too well.
To me, ALL of these things are better than having the storm showing a bullseye. I would almost bet my money they back off some more tonight, and come back around in the Thursday time frame. Like Kevin said, in 09 I remember turning on the news to see the entire area under a WS watch, completely shocked. The models had backed off only to come back around.
Comment by zach — February 14, 2012 @ 2:01 pm
Also, CMC and Ukie had the storm. Basically every major model has a storm within 100 miles of giving us a Major Hit.
Comment by zach — February 14, 2012 @ 2:02 pm
Okay, somebody give an analysis of the 12Z Euro. Tolleris says still good for SW Va. Does he mean rain and or snow?
Comment by Mark in Pulaski — February 14, 2012 @ 2:07 pm
Mark…what ever you do, don’t listen to my useless babble anymore. I give up. Back to the Island to serve out my term Hyping & Hugging.
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 14, 2012 @ 2:27 pm
Interesting to see quag and zach have different takes on data … especially since I won’t be looking at any of these models in any detail for a few more hours. My caution to all would not get caught up in too many specifics yet, all of those will change in 5 days. If there’s a low near the Gulf moving somewhere there’s a chance.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 14, 2012 @ 2:47 pm
I so need some snow. I have the oppsite problem from SADD I need a good snow, but I’ll believe it when I see it. It would be great to get rid of these ‘There ain’t been no snow’ bluse but I’d perfer Monday for a day off Tuesday as I have family coming in Sunday and already have Monday off. We’ll see what happens.
Comment by Becky — February 14, 2012 @ 2:48 pm
Per most recent request from Quag’s Island, I have inserted a giant fork into winter and scheduled a Monday service of remembrance for it. On the other hand, I’m taking my bicycle to Cardinal for spring servicing on Friday, which is equivalent to the groundhog seeing his shadow. Thanks to all the weather data readers for keeping me posted!
Comment by Sam Oakey — February 14, 2012 @ 3:22 pm
DT has central and southern piedmont in the bullseye which isnt good for us right now! He is saying this based on the 12Z Euro Ens! We need to get out of this bullseye and back in just the day before the storm, LOL, he also says the system looks to have much more moisture with this run. He didnt get into any specs on how much though! He said right now it looks like the rain snow line is going to be right around the Richmond area. This far out I dont really understand how he can decipher all this, but I suppose its just an educated guess.
Comment by Jared French — February 14, 2012 @ 4:00 pm
12z GFS doesn’t look all that bad, still has some precip over our area that looks like rain changing to snow. I’m sure it will change again, and with other models still showing a threat, I’m certainly not giving up on this one. I didn’t look at the euro but DT mentioned that it wasn’t bad for SW VA.
Comment by Roa10 — February 14, 2012 @ 5:03 pm
OK, I’m going to tell everyone the same thing I tell my 2-year-old son when he rummages around the kitchen drawers — put the cutlery away before someone gets hurt!
Here’s the much-discussed 12Z Euro map for Sunday:
http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/files/2012/02/12ZEuroSun0214.gif
The blue colors mark where it’s 0C/32F or below at 850 mb (about a mile up), which is typically about where we expect the atmosphere to support snow reaching the surface. As you can see, most of western Virginia is in the blue.
Historically in similar scenarios to what the 12Z Euro is showing (which may or may not be close to reality at this point), the rain/snow line sets up roughly Danville to Farmville. This looks pretty close to that.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 14, 2012 @ 5:35 pm
18z GFS is a hit, bust still too warm. Would be a rain to snow event.
Comment by ice storm lover — February 14, 2012 @ 5:39 pm
sorry I meant but not bust
Comment by ice storm lover — February 14, 2012 @ 5:39 pm
And for everyone worried about the 12Z GFS — the 18Z GFS has a pretty solid snow hit for the southern half of Virginia. Note on this map the blue line (the 0C 850 mb line, often roughly the rain/snow line) stretching from Charlotte to Richmond at late morning Sunday.
http://tinyurl.com/7qesf9p
None of this means much right now other than this storm — and the possibility of Sunday snow — is very much on the table for all of Southwest Virginia. It’s also far from a done deal. Put the forks away, but don’t throw them away.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 14, 2012 @ 5:52 pm
Ice storm lover is right about the rain-to-snow thing — I only showed 1 map, not the ones before. As it stands now, I would think it is very likely lowest elevations (below 1,500 feet, maybe 2,000 feet) would start as some rain. Whether that’s a very short period of time or many hours would make a lot of difference.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 14, 2012 @ 5:54 pm
The benefits of living in the mountains
Comment by zach — February 14, 2012 @ 5:59 pm
So glad I didn’t bite.
Comment by Brandon R. — February 14, 2012 @ 6:01 pm
Turn it up! It’s happy hour on the Island!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlO7T4_fg9U&feature=related
I’m taking this way too seriously.
Comment by Captain Glen "Gilligan" Quagmire — February 14, 2012 @ 6:03 pm
No biting, no forks allowed til at least Thursday.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 14, 2012 @ 6:04 pm
Kevin, with respect to the 8-14 day temperature map:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.01.gif
I see something that I have not seen on those maps for a long time and thats some amplitude to the temperatures from West to East. Seems like the maps have been very flat for most of the winter or the whole country was in the above normal category. Could this be some foreshadowing to more of a normal winterlike pattern when/if that cold air in the west shifts east or are we still in a neutral / +NAO a few weeks out?
I’d like to get in some more skiing around Early-Mid March so I’m hoping we’ll eventually have a few weeks of normal cold and the chance of snow.
Concerning the talk of winter being over, put your forks away. Its only Feb 14th. I’ll pick up my fork sometime in early April.
Comment by John from Ruckersville — February 14, 2012 @ 6:17 pm
According to the HPC, if this is snow on Sunday, it’s only going to be an inch or two in SW Virginia. If it’s rain, we get 0.10 and then we stick a fork in it?
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95e00p48iwbg_fill.gif
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — February 14, 2012 @ 6:21 pm
Accuweather discusses the same storm scenarios that we have been.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/storm-track-key-for-potential-2/61586
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — February 14, 2012 @ 6:26 pm
Quags, I am only up to comment 30 today, but I have a question. This is meant in very good humor, now … :>) :>) Have you seen a therapist or psychologist about your raging split personality? First the NAO was definitely going to give us a pattern change (I believe that was a late November comment), then winter was over by Christmas (THAT COMMENT may end up being the prediction of the season!!), then you announced “GAME ON, SNOW LOVERS” at least on one occasion, if not two. Lately you have been talking about sticking the fork in this winter … it’s done (many here might say it never really got started, right, Nurse Snow and Mike of Blacksburg?). In comment 29, you say, “Wait, snow lovers, there is good news.” If it does snow a decent amount (let’s say 3+ inches in most of SW Virginia), your predictions will be both horrible and excellent at the same time!! LOL I cannot wait to read the remainder of what lurks above …
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 14, 2012 @ 6:37 pm
And going back to the March 1993, Storm of the Century………Here’s a good picture of how the three jetstreams came together to phase that monster.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_j9xg_2WTvE4/SYH3m_U9zQI/AAAAAAAAAdE/JpxYXTddieU/s400/1993c.bmp
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — February 14, 2012 @ 6:39 pm
Sam Oakey, please calm down, Vice Chairman!! LOL Don’t forget that we are still well more than 100 hours away from anything happening here in Roanoke. I don’t care if tomorrow’s models say we’re gonna get 16 inches, it is almost certain to be lowered by at least 5 inches by Thursday. Frankly, I am a bit more worried that tomorrow’s models are discouraging for the 90% here, but still show a big Low somewhere in the southeastern USA. Up to comment 34 now. I got a big kick out of your comment, Sam, but what on earth is a funeral director doing with a defibrulator?? I thought you guys dealt with folks for whom that contraption was several hours if not days too late?!?!?! :>) :>)
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 14, 2012 @ 6:46 pm
Great Lakes Ice: Record period-from 1980. Lack of ice was in 2005/2006- slightly less than now. This year-a little over 5%. Normal- 30%/Feb., March-40%. Most cover-1995- a little over 80%. Now some of you model slueths can look back and see how this faired for our weather down thru the years in relation to Great Lakes ice coverage.
Comment by wdbrand — February 14, 2012 @ 6:52 pm
Gosh, Jennifer, your comment 40 at 12:06 PM. OUTFREAKINGSTANDING!!! I LOVED IT!! Did you ever consider contacting NBC to be Johnny Carson’s replacement on the Tonight Show back in the early 1990s?? If Ed McMahon continued on for a couple of years after Johnny retired, I can just imagine him introducing you. First the music: Da da da da DA! “And now, …….. Heeeeeerrrrreeee’s JENNIFER!!!” You see, Sam Oakey, there’s nothin’ for us to worry about, unless Jennifer changes her travel plans once again!!! Seriously, Jennifer, I for one would love to see more comments from you …. you are extremely witty.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 14, 2012 @ 6:53 pm
I’m only up to comment 50 and I’m laughing like crazy!! A superb day for comments!! Back to my “easy” research …
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 14, 2012 @ 6:57 pm
Ok-NWS has officialy introduced “chance of rain/snow showers” into the forecast for Sunday for Blacksburg and Roanoke. This morning their forecast for Sunday was “mostly sunny”, so they have made an about face in a matter of just ten hours. I’m in! This looks like a classic ole’ fashioned storm – west of the Blue Ridge is the place to be. Roanoke gets more snow than C’ville, Richmond, DC area – the way it is supposed to be! The mountains are your friend in this scenario (makes no difference how far north you are in VA, it is about how far west of the Blue Ridge you are) Our biggest storms occur when the west out snows the east. Think March ’93 when B’burg got 32″, Roanoke got 16″, and DC only got 8″ due to mixing issues from being too far east and too low in elevation. This would be the perfect track for folks living on the I-81 corridor all the way from Bristol to Winchester. Bring it!
Comment by Blacksburg Mike — February 14, 2012 @ 6:57 pm
What’s with these women and their “need” for snow?? Now Becky has joined the chorus. Are they going to wither and die if we continue to have a basically snowless winter?? What do you think, Sam Oakey, should we relent and let them have one decent snowstorm? I am of course off on Sunday, Monday is a federal holiday so I am off then, too, and Tuesday I ride. Timing for me couldn’t be much better for a snowstorm than this Sunday. ……. As if he and I can do one little thing to affect a weather system ……
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 14, 2012 @ 7:02 pm
Let’s see, Sam Oakey, Friday’s date is the 17th. I would reschedule your bike work for MARCH 17th …..
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 14, 2012 @ 7:04 pm
Hey, Rick, are you sure that your last four months here didn’t have an effect on you? It seems every time you post a link with a precip angle to it, it is discouraging for snow. I like that …..
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 14, 2012 @ 7:09 pm
Doug: Regarding your 7:02 p.m./No. 75 comment, I can’t think of a much better scenario for the weather board than a snow this Sunday. Snow lovers could get long-awaited/long-missed substantial snow. It hits on a weekend/holiday period for lessened impact, and more free time to enjoy it/avoid it. Most of it melts by Tuesday afternoon for the snow dislikers.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 14, 2012 @ 7:11 pm
Still another great comment from “Da Knob Man.” Great Lakes ice. Wd, can you look up what the coverage was in early February 1977? I bet Lake Michigan was at its alltime record for that time of year. i’ll explain why later.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 14, 2012 @ 7:12 pm
Kevin, in reply to your 7:11 comment. I basically agree with you, but I think a bunch of school employees that get Monday off anyway (like the USPS does) will be fit to be tied. {the following is a tease, SEWLS = School Employees Who Love Snow} We can all imagine the crying now. “Gee whiz, we get a nice x-inch snowstorm that would have cancelled school for two days, and when does it fall?!?!? On a Sunday before a Monday holiday!!! I tell ya, we get no respect!!!”
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 14, 2012 @ 7:17 pm
Doug, I’m glad my post brought on a laugh. Yours made me chuckle, too.
Comment by Jennifer — February 14, 2012 @ 7:24 pm
Doug, I’m just calling it as I see it…………not chearing for one side or the other…………but I too would like a snow if I’m off that day and the next.
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — February 14, 2012 @ 7:34 pm
Site I looked at only shows back to 1980. On accuweather.com, so I don’t know if records go back beyond that or not. But I think it has a heap to do with our weather on the eastern side of the US.
Comment by wdbrand — February 14, 2012 @ 7:39 pm
Doug:
As Cleavon Little said in Blazing Saddles, “I like to my audience rivited!”
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 14, 2012 @ 8:33 pm
rats…the medication is wearing off again..
The quote should be “I like to keep my audience riveted!”
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 14, 2012 @ 8:34 pm
Nope it should be: “Always like to keep my audience rivited!”
Comment by John from Ruckersville — February 14, 2012 @ 9:41 pm
Quags, I will say one thing. You are definitely NOT (italicized, bold print, etc.) boring!! Keep on posting what those models show.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 14, 2012 @ 10:40 pm