Time to take a few guesses on probability ranges for accumulation on Sunday
WINTER STORM WATCH JUST POSTED SUNDAY FOR CRAIG, BOTETOURT, ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES AND NORTHWARD
NWS-BLACKSBURG SNOWFALL PROJECTION MAP
NEW HPC SNOWFALL 4-PLUS INCH RISK MAP
Here is the wrinkle that may change things for Sunday. We have talked on here about the storm system would have to pull most of its cold air from high in the atmosphere rather than tapping an Arctic air mass. This remains largely true for the bulk of any snow that would fall, but many forecast models last night and today have actually some cold air from the north into the storm much faster than it appeared would happen earlier. High pressure near the Great Lakes (the H’s in this North American Model map for mid-morning Sunday), with its counter clockwise circulation, may help guide more of that colder air toward the storm system. The NAM in particular has been very aggressive in bringing this cold air southward (note the blue line snaking through Virginia at mid-morning Sunday in inset map at left); the GFS has been a little less so, but still brings colder air southward faster than it did earlier. The effect of cold air entering the storm more quickly would be less of a rain period at the start and more time for snow to fall. If the NAM is close to correct on its idea about this, forecast amounts could jump several inches. Still hedging that it’s not quite got that down pat. Still, even using the GFS depiction, I could see a period of a few hours of rain/snow/sleet mix preceding the changeover to all snow when the dynamic cooling takes hold from the pocket of cold air aloft.
The term “snow accumulation” can become a little amorphous in a situation like this one. There is accumulation on grass, trees, exposed objects, that usually starts as soon as the air temperature gets reasonably close to 32 degrees F. There is snow accumulation across the breadth of the ground, which can be retarded or delayed by warmth retained by the soil. And then there is accumulation on streets, which often hold in many days worth of heat from solar radiation. If you see significant snow on Sunday, your accumulation may vary quite a bit depending on where you stick the ruler. It is possible your location could get several inches of snow on grass and exposed objects, just a little across bare ground and nothing at all on the streets. It all depends on just how cold it gets, and how heavy the snow falls. If snow can fall faster than the melt rate of contacting a warm ground, It develops a slushy base upon which later snow can stick. That’s how we have these many historic cases of mild to warm days preceding sizeable snows.
I may do some more comprehensive accumulation guesses for across the area later. For now, I’ll start with my standard probability projections for each snowfall inch range at Roanoke and Blacksburg. These are for the official reporting stations, WDBJ studio for Roanoke and the National Weather Service office at Blacksburg. Most of you who follow weather regularly generally know how your location usually stacks up compared to these two, which are the major official reporting stations locally. These add to 100 percent – each range stands alone, it is not cumulative of the ones below it. So yes, I am saying I think there is an 80 percent chance for Roanoke and a 95 percent chance of Blacksburg getting at least an inch. The probabilities for each range even are fairly even now, especially for Roanoke, but I expect to weight that more in favor of one or two of them as we get closer to the event and more becomes clear.
Roanoke
< 1 20 percent
1-2.9 25 percent
3-5.9 30 percent
6-11.9 20 percent
12+ 5 percent
Blacksburg
< 1 5 percent
1-2.9 20 percent
3-5.9 40 percent
6-11.9 25 percent
12+ 10 percent
My lean, right now, as shown in the numbers, is for the 3-6 inch range, probably closer to the 3 side for Roanoke and closer to the 6 side for Blacksburg. Official snow totals are measured on what amounts to an exposed object, a snow board, so they are often a little more than what spreads out upon the ground. These are for those official numbers, not necessarily for your front yard on whatever street you live on.
February 17, 2012 - 3:24 PM
RSS feed 
Excellent forecast discussion from NWS-Blacksburg linked below about all the ins and outs, some of which we have discussed, and perhaps a few new thoughts. Definitely room for things to change either direction.
http://tinyurl.com/bklt8v
Kevin, my last post didn’t pick up for some reason, but you asked if I thought the whole storm for everybody would be a bust or certain areas. I think Roanoke points south excluding southern mountain counties that typically see snow, is a bust! I just don’t see it working out! Way to warm, and numbers are all over the place! I have heard from rain to over a foot, to 4 to 8 inches, and now probably 3 inches or so. Weather.com has already changed high temps from 39 to 41! I hope I’m wrong!
I like the new HPC probability map. I twill be interesting to see if that shifts southward tomorrow. I bet we will end up with at least a winter weather advisory, if not a winter storm warning, for the NRV and Roanoke Valley before this is over. The trend seems to be headed in that direction.
I hope I can get my grocery shopping done before everyone panics and cleans out the store.
one inch of rain forecast for Dallas…
Im providing the wet..you get the chill..
and we-ll watch it pile up…with some
Atlantic fetch tossed in.
im guessing 3…but hoping u see more
Since I’m about halfway between the two, but only about 1600 ft, I’ll assume a 7% chance of at least a foot here at Casa de Martin’s Creek. Best odds I’ve seen all winter! Bring it!
Ricky: That is certainly within the envelope of possibilities. NWS discussion I posted at 3:55 p.m. mentions possibility that deformation zone or “comma head” snows on back side of storm will shift north of the area and leave much less precipitation. But NWS also mentions modeling continuing to edge southward with storm which could mean that area shifts southward into Roanoke/Blacksburg.
Been a long time since we have one of these situations, but it’s rather typical. Only 2009-10 winter recently provided big storms that were obviously gonna hit us days in advance.
Hey Joe – how are things in Texas? We are all good here in Floyd – thanks for sending the wet this way – hope we can get the cold to come on down.
Ugh, always when I travel! It figures that we get that cold, freezing fog in January the night I am flying into Richmond and have to drive back to Lexington, and it figures that I have to drive back from my conference in D.C. into this on Sunday. Let’s hope the snowfall stays to the low end of the spectrum, and the ground stays warm enough to melt it pretty fast.
Kevin, any idea why DT is calling for so much snow in our area unlike the NWS? Pretty big difference between his call (8-12″) and NWS (1-4″).
Part of it, Roa10, is their very different approaches to forecasting. Part of it putting different levels of emphasis on different tools. At this stage, both are possible outcomes.
Kevin, here’s the thing. I’m in Floyd. I never know what the forecast is here because I swear, it seems the weather just does its own thing. Should I follow Blacksburg forecasting or Ronaoke? And could you explain why? Sorry if I sound uneducated but…well, I AM!
Weirdo: To get the weather service forecast for your area, you can go to the Web site (www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk) and simply click on Floyd on the map and the forecast will pop up.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=36.918058179561115&lon=-80.31692504882812&site=rnk&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text
On this site, I often start with the probabilities for Roanoke and Blacksburg just because these are the official climate data stations in the areas, but I get around to talking about a lot of the region.
Kevin – what do you see for the Staunton, Waynesboro area?
WDBJ7 has increased snow totals for the area! http://www.wdbj7.com/weather/wdbj7-weather-forecast-discussion,0,1408944.story
Iceman, I think you’re very likely to be 4-plus up that way. If I was doing one of those charts for Staunton/Waynesboro like I did for Roanoke and Blacksburg, I’d make 3-6 and 6-12 pretty similar probabilities higher than the rest. Maybe like 35 percent each on those and all the other divisions count for the remaining 30 percent.
So DT is mocking local mets who are saying 0-2 inches. He’s referring to this map…
http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/xxclients/marriott/12znamsnow_NE072.gif
When I look at his totals before a storm they almost never come true for Roanoke. in fact, if he says 10 inches we’ll be lucky to get three. I guess I don’t have a question as much as an observation of unwarranted cockyness. I guess we’ll see if he’s right this time.
Hey Kevin and everyone else! New poster here, but long-time follower of this blog. I live in the Triad area of North Carolina, and even though these discussions usually don’t concern my more southern neck of the woods, I still find it much more informative than almost every other weather source.
Quick question for Kevin or anyone with knowledge of the models: The version of the Euro model on WDBJ7 pulls all the frozen precip much further south than any of the other models. Why is that? Is it flawed or does it have some merit? I know that any snow at all in the Greensboro area is a long shot, but even the tiniest trace on the tail end of this storm would make my week.
18z NAM still has a foot of snow in our area, FWIW:
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=FCX
Also, I forgot to say earlier, thanks for all your posts and analysis this week Kevin. Much appreciated. Now lets just hope your 5% prediction for Roanoke happens.
18Z GFS looks to follow suit — considerably colder and somewhat farther south.
Kevin, enjoyed the program on the radio this afternoon. The Man of the House fell asleep in the chair next to the radio – so I went out to the car to listen to you! LOL
Weirdo – in Floyd – I generally sort of go by what they are calling for Blacksburg/Montgomery County but take into effect that we are east of there. Also as Kevin and others have said – elevation, elevation, elevation. It also depends on which direction the snow and storms are coming from.
Yadkin: Thanks for tuning in. Glad to have folks from NC. Feel free to let us know what it’s doing down there anytime.
The Euro has been a little to the south of a lot of other guidance. We’ll only know if it’s flawed by Sunday evening. It’s significant for the Roanoke area because if the low is a little farther south so will the heaviest swath of snow, which is now expected to be a little to the north. I wouldn’t rule out seeing something white down there just yet.
WSET is saying 3-6 for Roanoke and Lynchburg.
Not a lot of variance among Roanoke area media right now.
I am confused how one local media outlet can go from mentioning nothing really about snow yesterday and this morning to now calling for quite a bit (Ch. 7)…has the information changed that much?
Kevin, Why is there such a difference between the NAM and the GFS? You are thinking the GFS is more likely to be correct?
Models have pretty consistently been colder today and keeping the storm a little more south, which is a better track for snow in our region.
It’s a shame that the newscasters always have to err on the side of lesser amounts because they get so much critical viewer feedback if they’re at all wrong. They almost wait until the storm is underway before they commit to anything. They almost nowcast instead of forecast!
Thanks Carol…..are you in Floyd, too?
I’ve been a longtime reader and I have really enjoyed getting to ‘know’ everyone around here. All I can say is, I wish Doug Griggs was MY maildude!
Kevin, can you post the link to the different models at NWS again?
Thanks! You do a great job.
13 and 10 have been on board with this for ahwile…love your info Kevin.
bryhyf1: I’m not an expert on the intricacies of forecast model programming. I would suspect they use some different algorithms and possibly have different numbers and types of input data. NAM is intended as strictly a short-term model while GFS operates as short, medium and long term.
Hi Kevin and all! So excited to be part of the blog now with a winter storm on the way. Thank you all for the informative posts. All I can offer will be observations from our home in South Roanoke at 1500 feet when the “weather” arrives. Keep up the great work. And welcome Yadkin from the Triad area. My brother lives in Greensboro.
Steve
I just looked through the posts from the wee hours of this morning (two threads previously) and all of the previous thread. I have a prediction, and I am guaranteed to be right …. hold on, let me speak, er type! Of all the forecasted snow amounts mentioned today (not including this thread), there are gonna be LOTS of forecasts that are way off!! I had my boss give me a peek at the NWS forecast for our 24017 zip at 4:05 PM, and it was crazy. Practically no snow. That will almost certainly be one of the bad forecasts!! ***WE interrupt this boring comment with a BULLETIN!! I just watched Robin Reed on WDBJ7, and guess who is ALL IN!?!?!?! HIM!! 6-10 for Roanoke!!! Omigosh. Nurse Snow, if that happens, even the 6 (provided it is 6 inches on the ground, not a “snowboard” 6 inches with only 4 on the ground), I will have no problem with you linking to Freddie Mercury’s “We Are The Champions.” Back to my original stuff. I call any forecast that is more than 2 inches off a poor one. Think about it. First of all, nearly all the forecasts mention ranges. Even if someone’s forecast mentions a precise amount, 2 inches either way covers 5 different totals. A 6-inch forecast with a 2-inch variance covers 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 inches. Add in another 1/2 inch either way and the total variance climbs to a 5-inch range.
IN DECEMBER I PREDICTED A BIG SNOW FOR FEB 19TH. PRETTY GOOD, YEAH?? !! LOL
I do it every year. Since 1979 when I got caught in the BIG VA/DC/MD show Feb 19. We drove from Giles Co to DC that Sunday. I was scheduled to fly out of Dulles for Korea. It did not happen. There was 34″+, up to my assperations. All airports and streets were closed . Only 4 wheelers taking nurses and doctors to the hospitals. Electricity was off in Falls Church but you could buy what was left if you had exact change. Something one does not forget.
Ain’t it a hoot. Models flip flop, now weather guys flip flop. Robin Reed say 6-8″ now (up from just rain this a.m.) and NWS says 1-4″. Usually Reed is the most conservative around.
I heard you on the radio. You didn’t give an extended summer forecast.
KM-Quick question on something we have not talked alot about. The models seem to be slowing the storm down alot. Is it possible that we could see about 24 hours of precip (say 3am Sun until 3am Mon) for NRV/RNK? If it moves that slow, well, you can do the math……..
BTW, Robin’s 6:20 snow forecast on WDBJ7 is in sharp contrast to what Brent Watts showed at 5:18 (Robin was present for that forecast, too, so that is not a knock on Brent). His map was the same 2-5 inches for a fairly wide band centered more or less around Roanoke, the same band that someone here was nice enough to include a link to probably early this afternoon … definitely on the previous thread. Obviously their in-house model updated and/or they decided to override it and go with what other snowier models were showing. ***** If Robin Reed and WDBJ7 are saying 6-10 ….. WOW!!! They are nearly always conservative. And by the way, in case some of you are thinking about taking a pot shot at them here for “their lousy forecasts,” they did an OUTSTANDING job last winter, especially with the January 26th severely underperforming storm. Kevin, that previous sentence was OBVIOUSLY not aimed or in any way reflective of you. You are wonderful about defending all the tv meteorlogists.
My sister live in Greensboro since 1961. :>) If that is relevant. LOL
Nice going, Peppers Ferry!! You are now at least 1 for the last 33 winters!! Just teasing. Did you see the comment I made about that 1979 storm about a week ago? I was not affected by it … still up in Yankeeland, but my wife was. If you did not read it but are interested, just say so and I will go back and find it and tell the date and time. After this thing is over and IF things get very non-busy again in a few days, I would like to hear a bit more about your experience with that monster. BTW, my first postal assignment was in the Bailey Crossroads zip of Falls Church, 1-21-95 through 10-20-97.
No offense taken. No issues with any TV meteorologists here, I’m on frinedly terms with all the ones I’ve met. And I don’t keep score anyway, can’t remember who was right or wrong on what, the weather makes fools out of all of us sooner or later. Robin and I have talked about that very thing.
As much as I would like to believe that Robin Reed just called for 6″-10″ in Roanoke, I just went to the website and it was 2″-5″. Where again did this 6-10″ thing come from, and is there proof of it? And, if WDBJ did call for that much, it would be their highest prediction for any storm I have seen them forecast at 36+ hours away. They did not predict that much at 36+ hours away in March 93, Jan. 96, or Dec 09, so, Holy Cow we are going to get creamed!
Quags is finally home after 3 days in the sky, 2 motels & 3 Countries!
Can’t stay long. Dinner date with wife.
I do have very important announcement to make though.
I’m afraid I’m going to have to BUST to my prediction!
BUST! as in…
Bring
Up
Snow
Totals!
GOTCHA!!!
Be back after dinner date with updated HIGHER SNOW TOTALS FOR ALL!
Weirdo in Floyd – yep I am in Floyd too – out near the Doppler radar and Terrys Fork. You know – that big white ball that you can see from most anywhere if Floyd County. Where are you?
A big welcome to all of the new folks who are logging in on the blog. Remember to report in when the snow arrives with temperatures etc and let us know where you are located.
Kevin, if we report snow depths – is it better to take the measurement from a deck rather than the ground because of what hits may melt a little?
All systems ready up here on the ridge – just topped off the wood rack in the house and have the ashes emptied. Let it Snow!!!
Meanwhile, as we watch this potential snow event unfold, Roanoke’s high of 57 and low of 46 averaged a whopping 12 degrees above normal for Feb. 17. If the winter had just ended today, it would rank as fourth warmest on record at 42.6 degrees.
Enjoy Young Nick Sayor as he will give you the play by play while I’m on my date this evening. Check him out. My prediction is close to this.
http://www.stormtopia.com
*** VIDEO UPDATE*** The very latest on THE PRESIDENTS DAY STORM OF 2012!! Certainly worth a view:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0iwoy6AmzUE&feature=youtu.be
back after 11
Just watched him Quag. He’s gonna be a great meteorologist one day if not today.
Hey, Howard, just read your comment at 4:25. Even though the snow will approach from the N or NNW (according to Channel 7), the precip itself will be approaching from the SW or SSW. Possibly start as some brief rain, then (again according to “7″) some sleet (hear that, Zach??), and only a changeover to all snow here in ROANOKE by some time after 12 noon, maybe even later. If you can possibly hit the road early, you can make it here before the highways become “wintry.” Provided that there is a decent volume of traffic, especially tractor-trailers, they will make I-81 road surface one of the warmest road surfaces around. At least that has been my experience in the past (I lived my first 28+ years in Mass.). If wd or someone with more knowledge says otherwise, go with what he/she/they say.
Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County: Yes, I’m interested. Long time ago.
Elliot, 4:57 PM. I agree with you!! I admire Mr. Tolleris’ knowledge of weather, which is certainly profound. In what I think was an early December statement he made (might have been November), he unequivocally came out and stated that there was (practically) “no way” (that might not be a direct quote, but it certainly was his sentiment and emphasis) that the NAO was going to go negative and provide a Greenland block. He was in disagreement with quite a few other weather organizations. But darn if he wasn’t ABSOLUTELY CORRECT!! From that one post of his, I learned about the crucial importance of polar vortex (plural is “polar vertices,” I think) in determining whether the Asian/European side of the North Pole has it really rough, or the North American side. The last two winters it was North America, at least until late winter. This one has just about all been Asia/Europe, with Alaska getting socked by a couple of polar vortives off west Alaska. …. More in a separate comment.
I love the video you linked to Quags. Nick goes, “Roanoke might get dry slotted. That’s a problem you might have to deal with.”
Oh, we never get dry slotted for anything!!! (of course I’m being sarcastic haha)
Just heard Robin Reed’s forecast on ESPN radio 1240 at 7:30pm and he is calling for all rain with a possibility of a few snow showers on Sunday and a high of 42???? What is going on?
Hey Yadkin, I’m a fellow Greensboro-ite and a long, long time lurker on this blog. While I live in GSO, I have a cabin in Ferrum where I hunker down almost every weekend- especially when Kevin calls for snow.
There’s no better place to gather weather intel than with these folks. They’re smart, funny and the most welcoming group I’ve found yet on a blog.
Anthony: If it was on the radio it could have been recorded hours ago. Even my WVTF spot is recorded 3-4 hours beforehand. Channel 7 has a map with 2-5 inches of snow for Roanoke now and I’ve heard multiple reports that Robin Reed mentioned 6-plus inches in his 6 p.m. weathercast.
Could be an older recorded forecast..
TWC sucks most of the time, but they have went from 4-8 inches from me, to 1-3 now :/
Peppers Ferry, I saw your reply. I will start looking in a bit, but I have chickens cooking. Anyway, Elliot, on the other hand about Dave Tolleris, I think he has had some of the very worst snowfall prediction maps I have ever seen, just 2 or 3 days before a (possible) event. And as you say, especially for SW Virginia and WV. And I am not just saying that because of the late January 2011 event, either. He had snowfall maps in advance of several other threats last winter, and was way too aggressive/optimistic on most of them. He may have hit one and under-predicted one. I wish I had written them down. Even now he is forecasting 12 inches for Roanoke. At least I think it was his snowfall forecast map with all the pretty colors that showed 15 or 16 inches for WV. But maybe he will be right.
LOVE that youtube video Captain Quagmire!!!!!!!!!!! Except the dry slot issue!!!! Please say it aint so Kevin!!!!
Kevin-I know you are busy, and thanks again for this awesome blog, but you take a moment to address my question back at 6:35pm about the speed of the system? Thanks again.
I`m haveing a great time reading all the post the last couple of days.Was pretty mild up here this morning,only dropped to 40.Had a high of 50 felt great,i`m now down to 37.Looks like we won`t get as much Rain or Snow up this way as of right now.Hope everybody gets a good snowstorm in southwestern Va.Everybody have fun with this winter storm, might be our last for the season.
I really do appreciate all the people from outside The Roanoke Times’ core area who visit the blog. I never really expected that when I started, since we are pretty SW Virginia-focused here. Do always feel free to chime in when you have an observation about weather near you.
Some Twilight Zone music, please. I am glad that I was not the only one that claims to have seen Robin Reed predict either 6-10 (which is the range that I remember) or 6-8 inches for Roanoke. I just got on the “7″ website (www.wdb7.com) and tried to find the video of Robin’s 6:20 PM broadcast. Not there!!! They are still showing the 2-to-5 inch map on their website, and you can click on a link to show one of their guys doing a 4:32 PM weathercast. WHAT IS GOING ON?? I call myself the COLC, but it is mostly making fun of myself. HELP!! Anyone else see him do it?
Good deal! I knew it was pre-recorded, but just thought afer reading here all of Reed’s 6″ talk that it was odd he would change his forecast that drastically in just at most a day’s time…LET IT SNOW!!!
Mike: Models are definitely slowing the storm down. That is one reason some of the snow forecasts are going up, not only longer precipitation, but allowing more time for cold air to get pulled in. As for 24 hours of precipitation … probably on the edge of what could happen, I’m thinking 20 hours wouldn’t be unrealistic, as it may get started a little later than we were thinking. I’m expecting about sunrise Sunday to maybe 1-4 a.m. Monday, trailing off as flurries for a while. When the snow starts in that period will be huge in figuring accumulations. Mid-morning to early afternoon seems to be a general timeframe for most in lower elevations.
I remember in the 70′s if the forecast was for snow it came, 1976-1977.
why is it so much harder to get it right in 2012.
Doug: Mark in Pulaski also noted Robin Reed’s higher snowfall call in a 6:34 comment, about 7 minutes after you noted it.
old snow: Your observations would be at odds with a lot of data from the National Weather Service. Haven’t personally studied how accurate that data is, but I know lots of weather people who would argue with you and cite all kinds of numbers that weather prediction is dramatically better now than it was back then. It certainly is better than it was in 1960 — I have an article about how almost every single one of those snowstorms in that huge winter were not forecasted.
I don’t think it’s so much that it’s less accurate now, I think there are just more sources and media and therefore there end up being scores of forecasts and interpretations and storms are talked about many more days in advance. Being a weather blogger, I’m helping stir that pot, so I’m not complaining. Just an observation.
Kevin-thanks for the reply on the speed of the system. If we get 20 hours of precip and it is all snow, this will be HUGE. The 96 storm lasted for an incredible 36 hours (12mid Friday night until about 12 noon on Sunday). Longest duration snow event I can ever remember in my lifetime. Let’s hope the models continue to slow this baby down.
None. I heard song birds this week and saw a morning dove last week. Birds can’t eat with snow on the ground.
Kevin do you think NWS will put Roanoke and Lynchburg under Watches tomorrow? Or do you think they’ll play it safe, and just skip right to an advisory or warning if need be?
I’m very happy to finally see a somewhat decent snow this season!
I recently read that the KFCX WSR88D radar in Floyd is to be updated to Dual Polarization (scheduled October 2012 currently) – link here http://www.roc.noaa.gov/WSR88D/DualPol/Default.aspx
Unless I’m reading things wrong, the aim of DP is to help increase accuracy of what kind of precip is actually falling based on size/shape of reflected signals. This is gonna be pretty cool, but I guess we’ll have to wait until next winter to see more accurately where snow is actually falling in our area!
So snow not starting until early Sun? Hopefully we will make it back Sun before it starts. Auburn expects heavy rain Sat. area flood watch.
Hi Carol….. It’s weirdo. That was the name one of my four children insisted I use!
We are neighbors, pretty close! I’m on Beth Church near Coles Knob. And the weatherball is a great source of delight for my two year old who had an entire song about the Ball in the Sky!
Here is a map posted by the NWS on Facebook. It’s the HPC map but closer up and higher resolution so you can get a better idea where places are on the map.
http://sphotos.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc7/398580_10151581044704041_206848514040_9022908_976003347_n.jpg
re: Debbie @ 8:03
No offense but buy a feeder. I’ve waited all winter for this! The anticipation is awesome!
As I stated previously, I thin the noke is gonna be dissappointed on Sunday including me! I noticed that the weather channel app on my droid, has lowered the totals from 2 to 5 to now 1 to 3! I’m just sayin! Anybody else havin some doubts!?
Kevin,
Haven’t posted in awhile. Like everyone else, I love this blog. I’ve learned so much in the past 4 years and will continue to do so. I’m on board with the ” weather seminar” if it happens even though I’m so far away. Don’t expect much here in southside like you guys but at 1400 ft. have seen more snow here than in Bassett just a few miles away. Like you, I’m a snow liker, as long as the roads don’t get too bad. Since I work outside all year like Doug, I was wondering like Mark in Pulaski what your long range summer forecast is. Seems like we’ve had sweltering summer heat in past La Nina years.
Hey Weirdo/Soozinne – yes – we are neighbors! Welcome to the blog. I live just over the ridge or around the corner from you. I am near the “Green Boxes” that are on Beth. Church. I know your area well – travel Beth. Church very often. Let us know when it starts snowing over your way.
Debbie, Nurse Snow and other wild bird enthusiasts – if you are feeding the birds don’t stop when it is snowing. I go out with the broom or snow shovel and clear off places under the feeders for the doves and other ground feeding birds.
Going to take and spray some “Pam” on my snow shovel so the snow won’t stick to it.
Love your blog Kevin, you are always on top on things. By the way, just put an APB out on Quagmire!!!
Kevin, I’m a long time roanoke/botetourt resident who’s spent time up in NoVA and now im here just SE of Charlottesville. This is the best place to get weather advice because it has such a wide variety of opinions, models, and information.
The TV guys do what they do for the general public. they distill it all and make it user friendly for those that only want their weather in 2-5 minute segments. This is the place to go go learn about how it works, and watch for patterns from storm to storm.
I love your analysis, your many links to the models and explanations. It’s a wonder that you’re still here doing this for Roanoke.com and not at one of the bigger sites. (i.e. i hope your management recognizes just how much you bring to the table!)
My friend Jason got to go on a chase with you last year, and I hope to be able to go one of these years!
Keep up the great work, and I’ll be chiming in on what we see here in Fluvanna.
@69
I have to agree with Debbie, the groundhogs and skunks are already out. Sorry all you snow bunnies, this will be a bust.
I can understand the local mets staying conservative until the last hour. Statistically more of the systems coming through are not going to happen, so if you always err on the side of the event not happening, you will be right more often than not. As the event gets closer, you can always change your mind. If you read through the posts here for the last several days, you will see quite a few references to the shift that often occurs within the last 48 hours of a storms approach. I am still keeping my fingers crossed this does not happen. This being the first real threat of the season for us, we have no pattern established to give an idea what to expect, but in previous years that seemed to be the case almost every time. I am a little suprised the local mets are committing to the storm greater than 24 hours out.
Weirdo, 6:05 PM. I just read your comment. TY!!! er… TYVM!!! That is an abbreviation of what (according to one of our postal clerks) Elvis Presley used to say. Translation: “Thank You!!! er… Thank You Very Much!!!” I can do a decent impersonation of how Elvis used to sound, but you (or “you all” …. this is Virginia ….) should hear the postal clerk. Close your eyes and you could practically swear that E.P. had been reincarnated. And why, pray tell, would you like me to be your letter carrier? Do you enjoy reading other folks’ mail (after I misdelivered it to you …. )?? LOL LOL I’ll ask my boss if i can be switched to your area around about Memorial Day, and stay there through Tepsember. Floyd County is “always” at least 5 degrees cooler than ROA in mid-summer ….. In fact, one can leave off “in mid-summer” from the previous sentence.
So, Art: Why has it then snowed in late March and April in the past with fully leafed trees and wildlife in mid-spring glory? Skunks, groundhogs and wild birds don’t dictate the weather. And neither, for that matter, do computer models.
It’s gonna do what it’s gonna do without any concern for any of that.
Mark in Pulaski and Kevin at 7:55, thanks (about seeing Robin Reed post 6+ inches for ROA). Thought I was gonna have to go to emergency room and admit to hallucinations. Then they would “admit” me. And I would be “committed,” but not the way long-time girlfriends want their “cold feet” boyfriends to be “committed.”
When is the next model run due? We are getting in that T-36 hour range and should have a good idea of what to expect. I guess the big IF that may not be answered until go time is the cold air.
Peppers Ferry, are you still there?? I found it! 5:06 PM on last Friday, February 10th, the fourth comment on the thread entitled, “UPDATE 8:45 AM, 2/11″ My comment begins with “Gosh, I feel weak from the shock!!” Just keep reading, and I describe what happened to Nancy during that monster Northern Virginia snowstorm of Presidents’ Day weekend in 1979.
The skunks never went anywhere up here. I see a dead skunk every single day on Rte 53!
0Z NAM is running now, Keith. Not up to potential snow time yet.
BTW … you can see our storm system starting to organize in Texas tonight.
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/
Doug, my mother was a rural mail carrier until she could no longer do it. So I grew up replacing brake shoes on the vehicles she used every saturday, whether I wanted to or not. The first car she got with disc brakes I became convinced drum brakes were an evil manifestation designed solely for torture.
Wow, Carol, neat! Honk when you come down BC church road right near Coles Knob!
and hey, if you are the carol that is a master gardener, we have a friend in common!
For now, there are fences to install tomorrow, firewood to gather, bread to bake, and many more preparations before the snow arrives! Yay!
Hey, Doppler Carol, you asked about whether you should measure the snow amounts on your deck? ABSOLUTELY. But away from the side of the house. Take several measurements, but none should be within 6 feet of the side of the house. My friend Bob Macintosh of western Massachusetts did exactly that after his October 29th-30th monster. Bob said that all the tv meteorologists in his area said to do it that way. This reminds me of an important question for Kevin. In a separate comment.
Rain snow line lower on the 36z! colder than last one!
New NAM is slower and colder, but hasn’t got to Sunday daytime yet.
One thing that can cause frustration in trying to measure a snowfall by us “amateurs” (nobody take offense, please) is drifts caused by big winds. Since this certainly sounds like a wet snowstorm, the drifting effects would be minimal (compared to a more powdery snow), but how windy do you think this event will be? Obviously higher winds with the higher elevations. And will the winds be out of the NE or ENE for most of the snowfall hours? That is the one wind direction (ENE) that could cause my property to be buffeted ….
NE winds gradually shifting around to NW, probably nothing above 25 mph sustained, except as is typical in higher elevations.
“7″ just changed there totals on the site to “2-5″ (thought they said that earlier), but per the time stamp it was just updated 5 mins ago. Low side maybe… I don’t recall was it 7 or 10 who was super late to the Dec 09 storm and not adjusting totals until Now-casting started?
Trevar, thanks for telling me/us about your Mom. God bless her. I have a question for you about the brakes, but it may not be appropriate (don’t worry .. it is not bad language or anything like that) for this blog.
Wow, Nam has this thing STARTING as snow now! You think that will happen Kevin?
New NAM is way north. Surface low is in East Tennessee at 66 hours.
I have a window bird feeder(pretty cool and the cats love it!) and have had all sorts of birds in it the past few weeks. Thanks for reminding me to go get more seed as they have been eating it dry and yell at me to fill it back up, lol. And whoever said the skunks are out, yep! One decided to spray the house one night after we let the dogs out about a week ago. That was pleasant.
I too enjoy reading every ones posts. I rarely post unless it’s to say if it’s snowing in Fairlawn. I have learned a lot from you guys, so thanks:-)
Way north? It’s way SOUTH. I think you’re looking at something else, because 66 hours would be on Monday now. It’s just reached 48 hours on NCEP and the low is running through central Ga into SC and off the coast.
Here’s a peek at 48 hours. It’s got snow knocking on Charlotte’s door.
http://tinyurl.com/7p9zrnf
The birds will be fine if they can last a day. Whatever snow falls will melt in a couple of days.
I was looking at last night’s 0z NAM! Allan Huffman’s site said it was updated through hour 78, which was incorrect. Whew!
The new NAM is colder but not nearly as wet. Won’t be any of those 16-inch lollipops on its snow output. But it’s a solid snow for all of SW Virginia, and not much rain to start. Starts much later in the day and continues well into the night.
Very little QPF/Snowfall for western VA if the latest NAM initialized correctly. Bummer.
Kevin..does the new NAM show Less moisture or is it just me? Im seeing 15 hours with just about 9 of that being moderate precip…
Cancel all APBs. Back from dinner date with Mrs. Q
back in a minute…looking over 0Z NAM
Disregard last comment…you answered just as I posted!
OOPS – read it wrong. Hr 60 gives us .5-.75″ = so 3-4″ so that’s not too bad!
Depends on where you are in western Virginia. It’s got .5-.75 inch liquid all the way to just north of Lexington. That would translate into 5-8 inches of snow under normal circumstances, probably something less with the warm ground/early melting.
It doesn’t have that 12-16 inch stuff it did earlier but did anybody really believe that anyway?
Farther north it is much drier, Harrisonburg and north.
Hey, Jared, here is a big praise for you. I was looking through the threads of about a week ago, and you were the first (or if not the very first, certainly one of the first) to call attention to the fact that Dave Tolleris was calling attention to this storm, about 9-10 days in advance. THANKS!!! And in this way Tolleris is fabulous, no doubt about it. I think it was back in late October Kevin made an incredibly clairvoyant comment something like “someone east of the Mississippi is going to be hit with a very big snowstorm, just not sure who yet.” {Answer was my friend Bob Macintosh and eastern NY state (Albany) and especially the Berkshire Mountains of western Mass.} I praised him (KM) big time for it when it happened, but he said that actually DT had mentioned it first.
I hope the QPF increases again.
Link here – http://bit.ly/yNjfXB
That’s only through hour 48…
That link is only through 48 hours. Through 60 hours gives a little bit more of picture, since precipitation continues well into Sunday night.
http://tinyurl.com/7hwo6rb
The NAM is a good snow run for SW Virginia. It’s not the whopper some of you are hoping for. Lots of 3-5 type amounts with a few bigger ones if that came to pass.
I’m just wondering if I’ll make it to that 4 inch mark to warrant a warning from the NWS.. I just want ONE warning this winter please lol
Still on track…waiting for diagnostics results from NCEP. Beginning to wonder if there were initialization problems again.
Alex: Better you get your 4 inches without a warning than get a warning and don’t get your 4 inches!
Hubby and I are disagreeing on the amounts to expect. He is a pessimist and says its too warm for anything. I,on the other hand, am very optimistic that we will get at least 4″. I just refilled the bird feeders and bought another bag of seed in anticipation. Gotta keep my little feathered friends fed.
Thinking I’ll head out to the grocery store tomorrow to pick up a few little things we need. I’m dreading it though, people will be fighting over milk and bread LOL
Kevin, call it a gut feeling. The weather guy sticks his arm out the window like everyone else.
Nurse: Here’s a list of 4 times in just the last decade of when it has come inches of snow at Roanoke the day after being above 50 degrees (above 70 in one case).
2001:
Feb. 21, 58 degrees
Feb. 22, 3 inches
2003:
March 29, 76 degrees
March 30, 6 inches
2005:
Feb. 26, 52 degrees
Feb. 27-28, 8 inches
2009:
Feb. 27, 61 degrees
Feb. 28-March 2, 4 inches
Art, I will give your gut feeling and your arm more credit than I will the skunks!
But only if you’re right.
Thanks Kevin! I’ll make sure to show him that data! I’ve got a good feeling about this storm right now…call it a “Freddie Mercury” moment
Hi everyone! I had some time before the 1000 Fox News tonight to read this blog and, to Kevin, this blog is AWESOME! It is very fun reading everyone’s ideas/thoughts on this storm system…it is no doubt a tough call…when will the cold air get in here? I have had the privilege of talking to Kevin about the weather before, and look forward to doing it again. Happy forecasting everyone! And stay safe!!
0Z NAM went a little too far south this run if you ask.
I see another north jog in the future.
Not changing any of my predictions.
It’s been a long 3 days…I’m calling it a night. I’ll be back in the morning and update then.
In short, Snow is still coming!
Say Goodnight Gracie!!!
I tell myself not to get caught up in the hype of every big potential storm but every system finds me model watching and blog surfing.It’s time to confess-I am a snow addict and I need a fix BAD!
My snow thrower has remained in the tool shed all winter.
I think I’ll bring it up to the house in the morning. Our driveway is a long one–downhill.
Jeff: You’re awesome. Keep up the good work.
Thanks for stopping by, Jeff. Busy weekend ahead!
Kevin I know the forecast tomorrow is for mostly Sunny and mid 50′s. To me it looks like a good train of moisture across the central U.S into mid Kentucky and N.C.
My question is , what is the possibility tomorrow ends up mostly cloudy and about 10 to 15 degrees cooler then forecasted.
By the way nice call on the High pressure helping pump the cold air in sooner that you made way before others started talking about.
Certainly there is a chance that cloud cover holds temps down somewhat on Saturday. Something to watch for tomorrow.
Got a NWS update at 10:06 for Pulaski. Total precip. is down to 0.61 and total snow down to less than 3″. I know they have been slow to up the amounts, but going backwards? What’s up with that?
00z GFS looking like the NAM so far.. meh.
Not familiar with the NWS update you are referring to. The reason could be that the 0Z NAM was drier. It wasn’t that dry for Pulaski though.
Calling it a night – need to rest up for tomorrow’s blog.
Soozinne – Sorry, I am not a master gardener. I am just a gardener. I don’t think I will be going your way tomorrow but will honk at the intersection the next time I come through.
Doug – measure more than 6 ft. from the house and it needs to be on a board, huh – not on the ground. How about on top of a picnic table?
Kevin,
It is the NWS forecast for Pulaski. I go to the hourly weather graph and add the hourly amounts together. I noticed that the amounts had dropped off from the earlier forecast.
Kevin, I am laughing out loud at your 10:21 PM comment, and the 4 inches. Reminds me of something else.
The moisture is definately gonna be in this one..
as this moves in its not gonna come into dry air.
I think the guys that are predicting on the high side
are looking at a moisture laden system.
10-1 ratio and an inch plus worth of water could
be on the high side,,thing is its not a slow mover.
@Carol…I think its all white stuff Floyd and
a good part of the Valley side..foothills and Piedmont
might mix a little…U better get your wood in tomorrow
and see if you have enough bread and soup.
Ill trudge out in the rain with my hoodie tomorrow at 0 dark 30
for my 6am shift.
Wow, 0z NAM really suppresses the storm, especially in the areas currently under a WSW.
0z GFS still looks pretty good in our area, much of the same as it has been showing all day.
Mark: That will go back up if they factor in the 0Z GFS. Has close to 1 inch liquid over much of the area. Most of it is snow.
Doppler Carol: Top of the picnic table is OK, but I would still recommend a deck or other flat surface that will get cold. The lower, the better. And of course no overhanging limbs or overhanging anything else …….. such as hubbie!! Just kidding.
Robin Reed coming on now on “7″ …. let’s see if he says the same now as he did at 10:18 PM on MY 19 (then he said more hours of sleet than he did at 6:20). Yep!! My part of Greater Roanoke (south of downtown) stays all mix until about 5 PM!! Changeover to snow much earlier even in Hollins neighborhood and of course points north. Weird. Zach, your first mention of sleet is back on the table … I don’t care what the Quag-man says. If he says otherwise, …. and of course GQ may be right if he disagrees with RR …. but, he would be going against a meteorologist with years of experience, and at least 25 years of it locally. Unfortunately I missed what Robin was forecasting for snowfall amounts. Anyone else see that weathercast?
I was trying to make my way over to the blog and found myself typing http://www.gfs.com instead.
Time for sleep I think.
“Let me make one thing perfectly clear ….” (as a former President used to say), I was not making that forecast in my 11:27 comment, just telling what Robin’s forecast showed. My forecast? It will snow at least part of the time at my house. Got a strong feeling that the 3 types of surfaces (lawn, driveway/front walk, and road in front of my house) which KM mentioned earlier will have different snowfall accumulations. And the differences will each be at least an inch between the nearest surface, and at least a 2-inch difference between the lawn and the road. I think I will go look at the NWS forecast for my 24017 delivery zip, just for chuckles.
Not buying several hours difference in changeover between Hollins and where you live, Doug, because you are at a higher elevation.
Changeover times are a crap shoot, anyway. Never seen anyone nail those very well. RR would probably say the same.
Doug, I’ve watched the 5:30, 6:00, and 11:00 O’clock news and never heard RR mention any of those totals except whats on their map totals. of course i could’ve been half drowsy but don’t remember.
This has to be a record for most comments in one week.
Wow. Just looked at the NWS forecast for 24017 (NW Roanoke City). NWS is STILL not on board for multiple inches of snow, at least from what I can tell. I’ll leave out wind speed forecasts. “Sat. Night: Rain, mainly after 2am. Low about 37. Chance of precip 80%. New rainfall less than 1/10th of inch.
Sunday: Rain and snow before 3pm, then snow between 3pm and 4pm, then rain and snow after 4pm. High around 38. Precip chance 100%. New precip amounts between 1/4 and 1/2 inch “possible.”
Sunday night: Snow likely, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, low of 27 (probably closer to dawn Monday). Chance of precip 60%.
No mention anywhere of projected snow accumulations (????). What kind of forecast is that, which mentions snow but makes no comment of any kind about accumulations or lack thereof?? more Twilight Zone music, please, maestro.
Good comment, Kevin, at 11:47. I was testin’ ya!! LOL You are right, of course. At 1420 feet elevation, I am at least 350 feet higher than most parts of the 24017 zip. And the sleet (pink) and snow (blue) areas on his graphics were at times bizarre. It showed a finger of blue coming down the US 220 corridor from roughly Eagle Rock and a few miles either side of it all the way to Cloverdale/Hollins, but pink all the way along the VA-WV border from Craig County and up (north) through the extreme western edge of Botetourt to I-64.
Sticking the Fluvanna Fork in it. It’s done!
Not a snow fan, but honestly wouldn’t have minded it this particular sunday/monday, as I could use a day of “workin’ from home”
Good luck down there, but it looks as if there will have to be some sort of reversal of momentum for us to get a decent snow up here. Locals tell me the blizzard a couple years ago was especially rough out here. There are STILL downed trees all over the place.
Hey, I don’t know whom to thank, but someone here posted a link to the TWC website, and I found fascinating descriptions of ten humongous February snowstorms that hit the eastern seaboard states. I lived through several of them. Fascinating reading. The one that may have been most impressive to me was the Century Club snowfall of Feb 3-12 in 2007. Areas of very upstate NY just east of Lake Ontario (i.e., “Snowville USA”) were pounded by lake effect snows for 10 straight days. Town of Redfield, NY got 141 inches in 10 days!!!!!! That would be much greater than the record seasonal snowfall for most areas of the continental U.S., possibly including even Boston.
I wouldn’t worry too much about the exact QPF off of the models… looks like we’re in for a lot of moisture. If we end up in the deformation zone Sunday/Sunday Night – the heavy bands will probably crank out more than the models can resolve (and we won’t have to worry about a dry slot). I’ve noticed this before. Still have to bring in the cold air to get it to stick, but all models seem to have difficulty resolving the conditional symmetric instability to the NW of the mid level low. These CSI bands often produce more QPF than many models can forecast. Right now, it’s looking good. It’s a *great* spot to be in for heavy, wet snow. We’ll see if it holds tomorrow… (yeah, I’m nervous it will change). If it doesn’t – expect accumulation forecasts to go up considerably Saturday.
Just about a week ago I came on this blog and said I was ready for the non-winter to be over. I jinked it. Its all my fault.
Thanks for commenting Jamey. You used to be the only met I’d watch!
Looking forward to see what the NWS updates the forecast to tomorrow..