2012.02.06
Tuesday’s mild temperature likely warmest for many days
With highs in the mid to upper 50s for Roanoke and points south and east, possibly touching 60 in a few spots, Tuesday may well be the warmest day we’ll see in the next week, perhaps 10 days or more. By Wednesday, we do have a weak area of low pressure that will be advancing eastward along with the leading edge of a cold front. This low pressure will trigger some showers on Wednesday — some of those showers could even be snow showers, especially in the higher elevations along the Virginia-West Virginia border. The mountains of West Virginia may get a couple of inches of snow, perhaps some light accumulations even in the higher elevations of the Alleghany Highlands of Virginia (think west of I-81 and north of I-64). While some snowflakes may eventually work into the New River Valley by late Wednesday, surface temperatures will likely preclude much accumulation.
Wednesday’s cold front will knock temperatures back 5-10 degrees for Thursday. It is a precursor to a much stronger Arctic front due to arrive by the weekend, when temperatures may not climb out of the 30s west of Roanoke.
There are still indications a storm system may form in the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico late in the week, though at this time, it appears likely to track over Florida and then northeast into the open Atlantic. There is still some chance that will change, and it is also possible weaker disturbances or overrunning moisture could provide some chance of wintry precipitation during the weekend and early next week. On the whole, though, the Arctic air mass settling in looks to be a mostly dry one, as these kind of air masses often are. It will feel much more like winter by Sunday, though.
RSS feed 
Looks like RRA got 0.36 inches from the SAT.-SUN rain event. Things went more normally from my point-of-view. I got 0.6 inches, quite a bit more than the airport, and that is what often happens, but not always. And “thank you, er, thank you very much” to all of you (Rick, Nick, Carol and Other John and anyone else who provided them) for stating your rainfall totals. So after 5 weeks, my mini-bonanza has probably caught me up with Other John for 2012, who had more through Jan. We may be down a bit vs. normal, but I can state that the Roanoke River looks just fine, thank you, at least near the Sheetz on Electric Road in SE Salem.
And how come you have not posted recent comments, Glen, with links to what the models are showing? Even WDBJ7′s Robin Reed mentioned something like “we’ll see if we can get these coastal rain showers over the weekend to come north and meet the cold air, and give the many snow lovers something to cheer about …..”
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 6, 2012 @ 11:34 pm
The news on the NAO is not good, at least for most of you. The “rally” into negative territory on the 14-day GFS outlook looks like a very brief one. Now day 11 is the most negative, days 12 and 13 are barely negative, and day 14 is back into a positive number. Ouch.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 6, 2012 @ 11:40 pm
In Christiansburg yesterday morning, everything was ice-covered except the roads. It was pretty weird.
Very funny Doug. But true. I do hope your March prediction is true!
Comment by Nick in the Elett Valley — February 7, 2012 @ 12:48 am
Is the model data becoming more favorable for winter storm potential?
Comment by Bedford snowman — February 7, 2012 @ 8:07 am
Doug, I ran back through the rain records this year thus far, and January was a sub-2″ month, and February so far has 0.54″. Running tally since January 1 is 2.54″, which is a fair bit below normal, but given the relative wetness of the fall and December, it’s not a problem for the time being. But, I’d really like to see the organized areas of precipitation holding together as they work through the area. A couple weeks ago when we picked up that puny 0.04″ of rain when we were forecasted to get near an inch, the rains poured down in the central and eastern parts of the state, so much so that large pools of standing water were all over Virginia Beach, Wakefield, and other areas in the Tidewater the entire weekend, more than 2 days after the rains had moved through.
Comment by Other John — February 7, 2012 @ 8:35 am
Sorry, I transposed my numbers…running tally is 2.45″
Comment by Other John — February 7, 2012 @ 8:35 am
The only thing one can say about the model data as a whole that incresaes winter storm risk the next week or so is that it is now all showing a colder period ahead.
Beyond that, there might be some light snow tomorrow, but most of it slips north of SW Va. Some hints of light snow/rain showers on Saturday with a weak disturbance. And Feb. 14-16 period has some potential of a larger storm that, taken very literally on the 0Z GFS, could be a snow to sleet to ice to rain kinda thing for us. That system, which I do think will develop in the south-central U.S., could just as easily end up being a “GLC” (Great Lakes Cutter) and being almost all rain, too.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 7, 2012 @ 8:40 am
At this point, it appears unlikely the cold shot late this week and early next week will turn into a prolonged wintry period, owing largely to what Doug refers to about the NAO not likely going negative and supplying the blocking high over Greenland. That’s why CPC is going with warmer than normal in its extended period:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
The storm system next week will likely form in the transition from cold to milder. We can and often have gotten winter storms in that situation, but it’s usually some kind of mixed situation ending as rain, not pure snow.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 7, 2012 @ 8:49 am
The long-awaited pattern change to sustained colder winter weather seems to remain elusive without the negative NAO. I’m still not ready to write off the chances for accumulating snows of more than a dusting or sub-1″ amounts, but it’s seeming much less likely the longer we go. But I do get the feeling our warm winter will be bookended by the relatively cool/cold period in October and November and a spring cold snap that causes problems. We still have a good while to go where snow is possible, but spring-like weather in the middle of winter just makes it hard to seem plausible or likely. This has definitely been the least snowy winter since I started recording precipitation a few years back, and is one of the least snowy so far that I can remember, because we haven’t even really had much of the upslope snows either to bleed over with flurries or light accumulations this year.
Comment by Other John — February 7, 2012 @ 9:42 am
I’ve been in therapy over the lack of snow this winter and thus have not posted much. I shall hold this slim chance of a storm system in the Gulf upwards to light the way for my snow loving friends here on the blog. We must not lose faith, something frozen will fall from the sky before spring arrives!
Comment by Gloaming Girl — February 7, 2012 @ 9:57 am
… or maybe AFTER spring arrives …
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 7, 2012 @ 10:14 am
My senior year of high school we had a winter similar to this. We got hit with about 2ft of snow in March that year. I’m hoping this year may be similar
Comment by Shanon "Nurse Snow" — February 7, 2012 @ 10:32 am
Still another Myatt clever comment at 10:14. Meanwhile, before I go out this afternoon to try to play golf for the first time in over 3 months, I am going to do a bit of research, about a movie that I know that both “the Captain” and I adore. Then come back with a linkage to the NAO.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 7, 2012 @ 11:31 am
OK, here goes. Quags, I am positive that you will be able to name the movie, but let’s see if anyone else can. The NAO is either a love it or hate it thing. I definitely despised it in 2009-10, didn’t like it for most of last winter, too, but of course for some reason it has been acting like a long-lost lover to me all of this winter, and I adore it. Maybe Sam Oakey or Rick of Wytheville sent it flowers or candy or something back in November ….. Of course, for the 85% of the readers here who are snow-lovers, your feelings are just the opposite of mine. Here are some quotes from a mid-1970s movie with one word changed (“NAO” was substituted for the person’s name in the movie) that perhaps sum up how many of you are feeling about the NAO this winter: “Bad, bad NAO …. EW, BAD, WICKED, NAUGHTY, NAO!! (and a few seconds later) “EW..WICKED, BAD, NAUGHTY, EVIL NAO!!!!” Captain, please refrain from telling everyone what the name of the movie was until this evening. First person to answer correctly gets an “ATTABOY!” or “ATTAGIRL” from me.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 7, 2012 @ 11:40 am
Nurse Snow, that definitely sounds like 1993. Or was it a different year? I almost asked “earlier,” but you might not appreciate that! :>) :>) :>)
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 7, 2012 @ 11:42 am
Doug, that was from Monty Python’s Holy Grail. Zoot’s identical twin sister “Dingo” was ranting about her sister Zoot’s setting alight the grail shaped beacon.
I think we need to set alight the -NAO shaped beacon.
Comment by John from Ruckersville — February 7, 2012 @ 11:53 am
LOL Mr. Griggs. 93 is correct. I’m still a spring chicken who likes snow :>)
Comment by Shanon "Nurse Snow" — February 7, 2012 @ 12:13 pm
Doug, I actually remember that movie, not well though, but I do remember it. A scene from Monthy Python and the Holy Grail, if I recall correctly…it predated me by a few years.
The other good thing I’ll say for this year is I haven’t needed to re-stock my rock salt supply, or even pull my snow shovel from under the house. I’ve just used a push broom to clear the snow, since a half-inch is pretty easy to sweep clean. After the back-breaker of 09-10, this is a welcome winter respite for me…I almost want to pave my driveway just so I can either plow it, or get a snowthrower. But of course, the moment I invest in either one, it will jinx all of SWVA for a decade…
Comment by Other John — February 7, 2012 @ 12:22 pm
The local NWS mets have us slated for a rain/snow mix tomorrow changing to all snow by the afternoon and continuing through the evening. Their discussion said they were likely to post WWAs soon. We’ll see.
I checked the snow cover totals for the past 3 years. Looks sort of depressing:
Current:
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201202/nsm_depth_2012020705_National.jpg
Feb 2011:
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201102/nsm_depth_2011020705_National.jpg
Feb 2010 right after our snowmageddon:
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201002/nsm_depth_2010020705_National.jpg
Comment by John from Ruckersville — February 7, 2012 @ 12:37 pm
John, the good thing is that maybe the Dakotas can get a spring with less of a flooding problem for a change…they’ve had bad spring floods for a long while now. Seeing so little snow cover there might turn out to help them this year, though it’s largely stunk for most folks.
Comment by Other John — February 7, 2012 @ 1:02 pm
Might even let the corn belt get their crops in earlier and produce more grain, that would allow the government to put more in thetowards making ethanol, which in turn raises food and meat prices due to higher shelf and feed lot costs. Anybody ever feel like we’re chasing our own tails?
Comment by wdbrand — February 7, 2012 @ 2:13 pm
John from Ruckersville, “ATTABOY!!” You even described all the basic details. The famous “Castle Anthrax” (yes, that was the name of the castle in that zany comedy) scene. I did not provide the link to a youtube video I found, because the language gets extremely sexy near the end of it. The first time I saw the movie I was laughing my head off (what goes “HAHAHAHAHAHA ….. PLOP!” Doug Griggs or anyone laughing their head off) at the end of that scene. Other John, you get an “attaboy.” Lower case and no exclamation. Nice going, guys. Oh, John from R-ville, I just noticed your short sentence at the end of your comment. LOL
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 7, 2012 @ 2:18 pm
And today is the 24th anniversary of the biggest single snowstorm I have ever lived through, the infamous eastern New England blizzard of ’78. I was living just north of Boston. Snow started during the late afternoon rush hour on Monday, 2-6, (that February had the same calendar as this month) and it snowed all that night and all the next day, finally ending about midnight on Tuesday, the 7th. It was incredibly beautiful, but also incredibly devastating in terms of the disruption to daily life. You snow lovers and ESPECIALLY SCHOOL EMPLOYEES would have loved it!!! No school for the rest of that week. In fact, the city of Boston shut down for the remainder of that week, too! There was already at least a foot of snow on the ground before the storm came from another immense snowstorm on Jan. 20. Officially 26+ inches at Boston’s Logan Airport, but many of the suburbs, especially W and SW of Beantown, got a lot, lot more. Tremendous hurricane-force winds along the coast, with awful flooding (it was the highest high tide of the year that night), too. How would you like to have ice-cold salt water invade your town during a blizzard??!!!? One locality in the NE corner of R.I. not too far from Foxboro (MASS) got 55 inches.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 7, 2012 @ 2:32 pm
I don’t know about you still being a “spring chicken,” Shanon, but at least you are hopefully no later in life than being a summer chicken. On the other hand, I am a late-autumn rooster ….. not pretty. Especially this time of year.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 7, 2012 @ 2:36 pm
My wife said they have applied brine to Roanoke Street in Christiansburg. Who’s forecast are they following?
Comment by Jason in Riner — February 7, 2012 @ 3:04 pm
The NWS forecast is showing a 60-70% chance of rain.snow in the NRV…that may be why. But I think with the warm temps we’ve had overall, it’s probably a bit of overkill. Never know though…
I do know that some places had to be salted the other morning because of the freezing temps and fog…ice was on everything and the roads were damp from the moisture. The main place I noticed it was the big bridge at the 460/Main Street interchange in Blacksburg.
Comment by Other John — February 7, 2012 @ 4:37 pm
Jason, this is a guess on my part, but if VDOT was unable to clear all the moisture from Roanoke Street in C-burg today, perhaps they applied brine to ensure that tomorrow’s early morning temps did not refreeze it again. wd, any thoughts? And/or, how about that guy who comments here infrequently who works for VDOT?
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 7, 2012 @ 4:37 pm
Abybody checked on DT today? He says light snow/snow showers for northern Va and SE Va. for 3 to 8 PM tomorrow.
Comment by wdbrand — February 7, 2012 @ 4:43 pm
At least the MJO seems to be heading into very favorable octants.
https://fbcdn-sphotos-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/427424_365924350104103_100000596241992_1340844_667140230_n.jpg
Comment by Alex — February 7, 2012 @ 5:16 pm
VDOT is simply laying down brine so they do not lose their funding for next year. Don’t be surprised if they starting laying down brine every time a snowflake is called for the rest of this year. They did it last year too.
Comment by ice storm lover — February 7, 2012 @ 5:36 pm
I tell ya, this TWLS is absolutely fading away due to the lack of snow. People keep asking me where the snow is, and all I can do is shrug, and mutter something about “maybe in a few weeks… it snowed on my birthday– in April– once, maybe it’ll do it again…”
Comment by Blossom — February 7, 2012 @ 5:37 pm
I’ve got to the point where I don’t pay any attention to any forecast anymore. This AM one site was calling for snow showers/flurries. Then that forecast disappeared. Now they’re calling for it again. Just look out your window. The reference includes 2 local stations and wonder, wonder. You pretty much covered yourself this AM. Kevin, so this isn’t directed at you. However, there is the jerk it outta your backside forecast for the coast to consider. Don’t believe it, just saw it.
Comment by wdbrand — February 7, 2012 @ 5:50 pm
Chilly start this morning low 29,Manassas where i grew up was down to 25 at the Airport there.After a nice warmup today,which felt great,high of 53 here,its back down to 42 already.Calling for some light snow tommorrow in Northern Fauquier county,with the potential for 1-2 inches.Of course the way this winter is going, I have to see it to believe it!Lol!
Comment by Mike in Marshall — February 7, 2012 @ 6:07 pm
Glaoming Girl and Blossom, I’m sorry to hear that you two are feeling so glum. This winter may actually be tougher on you two emotionally than the winter of ’09-’10 was on me. At least I had two weeks of calm weather at the beginning of Dec., and then the sudden, extreme turnaround in early March 2010 and winter was completely gonzo from that point forward. Perhaps you two ought to take a quick day trip to Quinwood, WV tomorrow and be practically assured of seeing some snow. Even WDBJ7 at 6:20 mentioned the slight possibility that even the Roanoke Valley might see a light wintry mix in late afternoon tomorrow. I don’t care …. I will be behind the wheel for the entire time I am delivering tomorrow. I figure that there is no way that the roads in Roanoke city will do anything other than get wet. Good luck tomorrow snow lovers …. I hope your home town gets at least some snow.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 7, 2012 @ 8:14 pm
Jason, my husband says TOC calibrated their machine for brine and was testing it out in Christiansburg.
Comment by Want Snow Too! — February 7, 2012 @ 8:48 pm
Well they tested the brine machine thoroughly, because all of the major roads in Christiansburg had brine on them!
Comment by Jason in Riner — February 7, 2012 @ 10:03 pm
There goes that gulf low staying way south and east of our area. Cold, but next to no snow on the weekend.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95e00p48iwbg_fill.gif
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — February 7, 2012 @ 10:14 pm
Hey Mr. Griggs, I resemble that remark from 2:36pm LOL.
I’m getting excited thinking that we “might” get some snow or even wintry mix. I’m starting to feel a change coming!
Comment by Shanon "Nurse Snow" — February 7, 2012 @ 10:42 pm
Well, Shanon, I resembled your remark to my fellow letter carrier about 10 days ago, so we are even. LOL ……. new ENSO Weekly Diagnostic Discussion issued yesterday. Guess what? La Nina is not yet weakening. Slide 5: the latest weekly departure for the 3.4 region is a -1.2, one of the most negative weekly readings that I have seen. But all the models agree it should weaken from here on for the next few months.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 7, 2012 @ 11:17 pm