2012.02.05
Weekend, for now, looking like average cold shot, ho-hum for snow chances
Temperatures are likely to be below freezing on Monday morning with some fog developing, and that could lead to patchy ice as fog freezes on some roadways, particularly bridges and overpasses. Be aware of this traveling in the morning. Highs will rebound into upper 40s to low 50s — close to where they’ll likely be any day this coming work week that has sufficient sunshine, maybe a bit higher on Tuesday.
The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, in looking at the Wednesday to Saturday period this week, issued this analysis (one brief explainer by me, in parentheses) in its Extended Forecast Discussion that certainly rings true this winter:
CANADA IS COOLED TREMENDOUSLY VIA THE CROSS-POLAR FLOW INTO THE COUNTRY…BUT THE ARCTIC AIR HAS NO MECHANISM BY WHICH TO INFILTRATE THE UNITED STATES TO ANY APPRECIABLE DEGREE. THE FLOW IS ALSO NOT CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS (i.e. low-pressure development)…SO EXPECT NO SPRAWLING AREAS OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
True to form, most current forecast modeling has rather weak low-pressure crossing the Gulf of Mexico and staying south of our region, crossing Florida and heading out to sea. It does have cold fronts originating from a polar vortex over Hudson Bay moving through intermittently through the week, with perhaps the strongest toward the weekend. Still, without a large, powerful low moving up the East Coast or high pressure forming over Greenland, as the HPC says, there is no mechanism to move a large amount of that Arctic air south. We will likely gradually stair-step down to near normal cold — 40s highs, 20s lows — by the weekend and early next week. It may even end up being colder than that for 2 or 3 days.
As for snow chances — there is still some chance the low in the Gulf will end up farther north. There is also a period of time when southwesterly flow aloft may develop atop colder air moving southward, and upper-level energy hanging back in Mexico may kick out a few disturbances in that flow. All of this is nickel-and-dime kinda stuff compared to the phasing of jet stream energy we discussed as a possibility Sunday that looks even less likely now. It’s certainly not a surprise this winter.
We’ll continue to monitor this week’s system and the north Atlantic for a change there, and also watch to see if any disturbances moving in from the west will be timed right and tap enough moisure to intersect cold air shots.
RSS feed 
And for another strange place it’s snowing in the world … here’s Algiers:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/rare-snows-in-north-africa/61172
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 6, 2012 @ 12:05 am
ho hum indeed…
But thank Thor and Boreas for
being so kind in an otherwise unkind world.
Sometimes a warm house is a lot to ask for.
And sometimes we should just smile and be thankful
for fate being what it is.
Snow can be pretty..but not always to everyone.
Comment by Joe — February 6, 2012 @ 4:43 am
Aw shucks
Comment by Nate — February 6, 2012 @ 7:17 am
Weird! The thick fog/frost this morning gave the area a rather wintry feel for a change.
As for the storm potential, I’ve remained in the skeptics boat given the pattern this winter of not enough cold air this far south, and many of the systems under-delivering on precipitation.
Our tally from the weekend was a skimpy 0.28″
Comment by Other John — February 6, 2012 @ 8:18 am
We have some maple trees in town budding out big time. I’ve never seen this happen in early February. We need a colder pattern or else fruit trees and everything else will come out too early and get crushed in April.
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — February 6, 2012 @ 8:29 am
My bulbs broke ground and started blooming last week, now my yard needs to be mowed.
I know the fruit producers have to be deeply worried right now, though if it stays mild we may have one of the most epic growing seasons ever. But really, I don’t think asking for 3 weeks of winter is much to ask to prevent serious wackyness from happening in nature. I’ve already heard reports of bears coming out of hibernation only to find nothing to eat, and I’ve got song birds who have already started spring mating that would normally start mid to late March.
Comment by Nate — February 6, 2012 @ 9:53 am
No fog this far west this morning and temperatures were above freezing. Still cloudy but trying to break off. We ended up getting close to 1.50″ in rain from the late week system and the one Saturday into Saturday night. The ground here is sloppy and creeks/rivers are full. Still have not seen any daffodils blooming but saw some in Carroll Co week before last. I have seen some crocus blooming. One year I saw crocus blooming by Jan. 20. Things seem to be about 1 month early at this point. Changing my name on the blog to Chapel Guy.
Comment by Chapel Guy — February 6, 2012 @ 10:29 am
The latest from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center:
THE POLAR VORTEX REMAINS TOO FAR NORTH/THE FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES REMAINS TOO ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE TO LEAD TO ANY SUSTAINED COLD SPELLS ACROSS THE LOWER 48 DURING THE NEXT WEEK.
No Greenland blocking high. I think concerns are legitimate that it might not show up til March or April when plants have bloomed out or even leafed out (March will look like April at this rate).
I pay a lot of attention to the HPC discussions on the 3-7 day range. So do the local weather service offices. Some of the nation’s best experts on large scale weather patterns work there.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 6, 2012 @ 10:48 am
Over the weekend, my dad who has farmed all of his life, said this “We are going to pay for this. We are going to get hit hard soon.” I thought to myself that this might be the accurate way to look at it. We may end up with snow in May this year with this crazy weather pattern.
My mother also reminded me that my grandfather always said “What Feburary borrows from March, gets paid back in April” I still expect us to have some cold weather and snow, but it could be closer to late March or April at this rate.
Comment by Shanon "Nurse Snow" — February 6, 2012 @ 10:59 am
Last night’s 0Z European model does bring through some weak low-pressure intersecting the cold air Saturday, becoming a much stronger low off the coast on Sunday (links below).
http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/files/2012/02/00zeuro850mbSat0206.gif
http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/files/2012/02/00zeuro850mbSun0206.gif
It’s still worth keeping an eye on this week.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 6, 2012 @ 11:20 am
Oh by the way, I forgot to tell you I found a surprise yesterday. My grandson went into the hen house and found lots of eggs. I wasn’t even looking for eggs since I thought it was not time for the hens to start laying. Surprise, surprise! My grandmother always said that April would borrow 12 days from March to kill off the old cows. If this keeps up, it may end up borrowing more than 12 days.
Comment by Chapel Guy — February 6, 2012 @ 11:30 am
Meanwhile, 12Z GFS is developing a low in the eastern Gulf this weekend … and taking it northeast about 500 miles offshore.
http://tinyurl.com/6pt86p9
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 6, 2012 @ 11:44 am
Do you see days in the 40′s/ 50″s much of the next 2 weeks. Are we done with 60s for awhile??
Comment by Chris — February 6, 2012 @ 12:02 pm
Kevin, What about that Beast showing up today on the 18th and 19th? Even if it goes West or East a couple hundred miles…still looks like a monster that could give us some good snow.
Comment by Pistol Pete — February 6, 2012 @ 12:14 pm
I saw that 18th-19th storm Pete. Being 12 days away I’m gonna see if it’s still there 5-7 days out before giving it much cred.
Chris some spots might hit 60 Tuesday, but generally 40s/50s for next 10 days at least.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 6, 2012 @ 12:19 pm
Yes, because just this AM, the GFS had a N’Easter on the models (Feb.22nd) that is no longer even showing up.
On one hand, I hate the fact that models can’t be more accurate on the long range, but it is also exciting when models show nothing for a week, then 2 days before the forecast turns into “BIG DADDYS” as Margusity puts it. I think that its not a question here in mid Feb. of “IF”,….but “When”!
Comment by Pistol Pete — February 6, 2012 @ 12:30 pm
Kevin,
See what you can do to move that Low pressure on the 12Z GFS a few hundred miles west. At this point if the models had us targeted for snow this weekend, I’d be more concerned. For now I’m still holding out hope that we’ll see some natural snow up at Snowshoe at some point this weekend. At least the temperatures are estimated to be near normal. The ski trip will be a blast regardless so I’m not going to lose any sleep over it one way or the other.
Quags, with respect to the previous thread, I enjoy seeing your enthusiasm about potential and the actual snow events so keep it up. When I’m in a rush to seek out information about a potential snow threats on the horizon, I usually find myself seeking out your posts because you not only state that there is a possibility of something on the horizon but do a good job of explaining it. If the storm doesn’t pan out as expected, no big deal, stuff happens. Shoot for the next storm on the horizon.
Comment by John from Ruckersville — February 6, 2012 @ 12:49 pm
How reliable is 12Z this far out?
Comment by Bill — February 6, 2012 @ 1:13 pm
12z Canadian still has a storm, not big but a few inches, but it’s been awful this year.
Time to go model hugging!
Comment by Ice storm lover — February 6, 2012 @ 1:26 pm
TWC is showing 40% chance of rain/snow on Wednesday, any validity to this?
Comment by Robert in Pulaski — February 6, 2012 @ 1:33 pm
Robert there may be a weak system along with a frontal passage at midweek. Will take a closer look later.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 6, 2012 @ 1:46 pm
We had freezing fog here this morning. Partly cloudy now and still a little cool outside. At least there is no wind.
Nurse Snow – I agree with your mom and dad. I think we are going to have a really cold spell before spring really does get here.
Comment by Doppler Carol — February 6, 2012 @ 1:50 pm
If the 12z GFS is out to sea now, that Low pressure should track more westward because of the eastward bias of the GFS model. This to me is a good sign if SW Va wants snow, do you agree Kevin. I’m not model hugging, just interesting to see it come, then go, then come back again, at 48 hours before the event could tell the story.
Comment by Jeff W. — February 6, 2012 @ 2:33 pm
Quags, Quags, Quags, all together now everybody… QUAGS, QUAGS, QUAGS…
Don’t stop posting you high fly’in, snow lov’in, model hugg’in, fork hold’n hypster. I LOVE reading you posts and all the non-weather(pop culture) references you include. When time is limited, I too often scan the blog quickly for your insights.
Comment by Todd in SW City — February 6, 2012 @ 3:13 pm
Kevin,
I often see people refer to a computer model’s bais (east/west), if the model is only as good as the data we provide it with, why would it have a bais? I mean it’s a computer – and if we know it has an established basis shouldn’t the information we provide it with take that deviation into account and off set it?
Comment by Todd in SW City — February 6, 2012 @ 3:46 pm
whoops! I meant bias not bais!
Comment by Todd in SW City — February 6, 2012 @ 3:48 pm
I knew I shouldn’t have gotten excited about a storm this weekend. Just too much working against it, but I had just a little sliver of hope left. If (when) this storm doesn’t work out, I think we may be straight out of luck for this winter (for snow lovers). I see borderline storms in the long range of the GFS, but hasn’t it shown that all year? Every single storm has either gone west and rained on us or disappeared OTS. Nothing convinces me in this pattern that another storm will be any different, because, if anything, the pattern is going to get warmer again, with still no Greenland block and a rising neutral/positive AO.
I’m honestly expecting no more than an inch of snow for the rest of this “winter”, and if we do happen to squeeze out more, I will pleasantly surprised. I’ve already accepted that this will be -barring a miracle- a winter snow lovers will want to forget.
Comment by Roa10 — February 6, 2012 @ 4:13 pm
Charleston NWS has brought back the snow showers chance Fri night/Saturday for Snowshoe.
- John from Ruckersville – Are you partaking in any of the Cuervo Games at Snowshoe?
Forgot to mention that we did have frozen fog last night in Goodview. Our cars and deck had a nice sheet of ice by 10PM. It was 32 at the time and dropped to 31 over the next couple hours.
Comment by Brian — February 6, 2012 @ 5:29 pm
NWS-Blacksburg throws snow lovers a little bone in its forecast discussion:
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM AS WELL CONDITIONS BECOME SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR LOW PRESSURE TO FORM SOMEWHERE IN THE GULF REGION AND TRACK NORTHEAST. 00Z EURO AND 12Z GFS KEEP SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WELL TO THE EAST OFF THE COAST ALTHOUGH 12Z CMC LIFTS SFC LOW MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH PRECIP SHIELD EXTENDING BACK INTO OUR AREA. STILL WAY TOO EARLY FOR ANY CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION SO FOR NOW KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SAT AND DRYING LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RNK&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 6, 2012 @ 5:35 pm
Todd: If I knew more precisely about all the ins and outs of computer modeling I could probably answer your question better. I do know that these models are updated frequently to compensate for known biases. We give them a lot of grief but the modeling at 3 days in really has improved noticeably since I started paying them attention about 12-13 years ago.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 6, 2012 @ 5:39 pm
Brian, I’m not sure. There has been talk of entering a sled this year.
NWS-Charleston issued this on the last discussion:
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/…
– Changed Discussion –OPERATIONAL MODELS ADVERTISING A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO COME THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE…WITH SOME SNOW EXPECTED…BUT SYSTEM WILL BE A QUICK
MOVER. COULD LEAVE SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE ON THE BACK SIDE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY AND EARLY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
ALSO SERVE TO USHER IN A MORE WINTER LIKE AIRMASS AS 925MB
TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND 10C BELOW ZERO. WILL EXPECT A CLEAR
NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT…AND WILL SEE MOST LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS WHILE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ARE IN THE HUNT FOR SINGLE DIGITS. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOW TO REBOUND THROUGH THIS PERIOD.– End Changed Discussion –
I’ve seen upslope snow last for days up at Snowshoe so we’ll see. Usually it produces good light powder conditions.
Comment by John from Ruckersville — February 6, 2012 @ 5:49 pm
The CPC does not make the snow lovers happy for the next two weeks. Texas likes it though. I’m still thinking that early March is the best timeing for an area wide snow this “winter”. The La Nina is weakening and may just give us this pattern change heading into spring.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — February 6, 2012 @ 6:31 pm
Kevin, your post #29 is what I was asking a day ago, just didn’t know how to get it across. Wondered if the low coming across FL. could shift the track of anything coming cross country more inland.
Comment by wdbrand — February 6, 2012 @ 6:38 pm
Kevin, if Roanoke doesn’t get an official day of 1 inch of snow, how does that work for the contest?
Comment by Brian — February 6, 2012 @ 6:39 pm
Brian: That part of the contest will be thrown out, since it will not exist, and the other three factors will be considered (total snow for Blacskburg, currently 2 inches, rounded; total snow for Roanoke, currently 0 inches, rounded; and first 1-inch snow at Blacksburg, Jan. 2)
I tried to go through the contest entries and see who was ahead but none of the picks are really close for what’s going on. A few picked close to Jan. 2 for Blacksburg but tended to be far off in total snow and are obviously going to be way off for Roanoke’s first 1-inch snow date, if there is one. I did spy one student who picked a 3/10 date for first Roanoke snow. Vast majority of entrants picked December dates for first snow at both sites.
Don’t think the winner will have a very low score (lowest being the best) this year.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 6, 2012 @ 6:57 pm
Forsythia is blooming on campus (I actually noticed that TWO weeks ago) and the tulips in my yard are poking up a few inches. I walked at noon today thinking it was already in the 40s, didn’t wear gloves and got very cold hands…saw later that it was only about 36…and very damp. While this winter has been mild I think when it’s finished we will remember it as being very long.
Comment by HokieTrax — February 6, 2012 @ 8:42 pm
I just looked at the very last comment on the previous thread … have not read any of the above, not even KM’s major post. But in comment 75, Kevin proves that he is not only a blogmaster and a Weather Wizard, but as my friends use to say when I was young (eons ago), “He’s a poet and he knows it.” He typed in reply to a Nick query, “Trend is not your friend …..” Cute, clever.
Speaking of you, Nick, thanks for the consoling words. I said before the Super Bowl that if it ended up being a close game, NYG would probably win. But I very erroneously thought that Brady and Pats would roll. (And the following is a tease …. good natured) Nick, you should be ashamed of yourself for abandoning the AFC. We AFC fans have to stick together when it comes to the Super Bowl. When the NYJ make it, I will root for them (….. unless they injure Brady or Welker on a dirty hit …) :>) :>) OK, enough, Doug!!! Back to weather.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 6, 2012 @ 9:05 pm
Had some very light sprinkles as I left work in North Roanoke about 8pm. Only mention by NWS was for possible light precip across the mountains. Guess it made it a bit past that
Currently 41.5 in Goodview.
Comment by Brian — February 6, 2012 @ 9:08 pm
All right, all right, I give in. I was hoping to wait until later this month, but EVERYBODY is talking about how March (and with some of you, April) will be much colder than normal. Kevin, knowing how you are a lover of weather “statics” like I am, you will hopefully enjoy this comment. Actually, the next comment. I am worried about everybody’s fiend (Not Friend, but fiend), CAPTCHA. I will state my prediction here for how cold this March is going to be for Roanoke, and you cold weather lovers will be hoping I am right (provided that you don’t have any fruit trees in bloom). As they said during the poker game in the movie “Casino Royale,” I am going “ALL IN.” March will be at least 5 degrees colder than normal. You heard it here first.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 6, 2012 @ 9:25 pm
Why would I make such an extreme prediction? Well, first of all, there is the “Donna Cramer rule.” All of the last 6 Marches (2006 through last year) have been warmer than normal in Roanoke, although last year was practically normal (+0.3). We are overdue for a cold March. Also, going all the way back to 2000, only two of those 12 Marches have been colder than normal. 2005 was a -3.1, and 2001 was a -3.8 (only one day that entire month was really warm, 3-13-01, with a +11, and no other day was more than a +6 vs. the norm). That makes us even MORE overdue. Secondly, with the NAO sending me a winter-long unbelievable Christmas present, it is ALSO long overdue, to go very negative, that is. When that happens, unless the AO reverses or something else weird happens, we will almost certainly get colder than normal. Now the NAO may go negative for only a brief time, in which case I end up quite wrong (nothing new there), but I bet it remains deeply neg for at least 4 weeks. I make no predictions about snowfall, however. We need to keep in mind that by the last week or so of March, the normal highs in Roanoke reach 60 and over. Once we get past Saint Patrick’s Day in Roanoke, the chances for snow really go down here, based on history. But some of you live in areas a lot cooler than ROA, so that needs to be factored in, too. I know that for a change, lots of you will be wishing me good luck with this prediction.
Mike of Blacksburg: please help me move the ladder to a different limb on that tree. My turn to go way out on a limb.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 6, 2012 @ 9:39 pm
Kevin, is there any way to find out how much snow Algiers got over the weekend? They may have joined Midland, TX (which is WAY ahead of us, I’m sure) in having a larger snow total than Roanoke’s 0.4 inches so far.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 6, 2012 @ 9:42 pm
Can’t claim originality on the trend-friend thing. Dave Tolleris commonly uses the expression “the trend is ypur friend” and I’m not sure if it’s original to him.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 6, 2012 @ 10:18 pm