UPDATE 11:30 PM, 3/13: 80 degrees a solid possibility today through Friday
UPDATE 11:30 PM, 3/13: Roanoke’s high temperature came up a degree short of the 80 mark on Tuesday, but will likely equal or exceed it both Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday’s high could well tie or set a record for March15, with the standing mark at 82 degrees set in 1944. Blacksburg’s record high of 77 for March 14, set in 2007, may be challenged on Wednesday. By Friday into the weekend, a weak cold front, daytime heating, mountain effects and growing humidity may trigger scattered showers and storms, which may cut the highs down somewhat, perhaps below the 80-degree mark. It’s very similar to a typical summer pattern rather than spring, with upper-level wind dynamics unlikely to support any widespread threat of severe weather during the weekend despite much above-normal temperatures. END UPDATE
UPDATE 4PM: With a mid-afternoon temperature of 78 degrees at Roanoke Regional Airport, it is possible that the 80-degree mark may be reached this afternoon. It remains a good possbility each day through Friday as well. END UPDATE
For those who may be interested in the Blacksburg area (or who can get to the Blacksburg area), the deputy director of the National Weather Service, Laura Furgione, is giving a keynote address open to the public at 2 p.m. today (Tuesday) at 100 McBryde on the Virginia Tech campus. It is part of “A Showcase of Female Scientists” (more information linked here). The focus of Furgione’s talk will be how the nation prepares for extreme weather and climate events.
There is a small chance of showers and maybe even a thunderstorm or two on Tuesday as a dwindling front hangs around the area. But it should still warm well above 70 in most of Southwest Virginia, the first of at least 4 consecutive days that will do so. The season’s first 80-degree reading remains a possibility for Roanoke in the Wednesday to Friday timeframe. The daily record high for March 15 (Thursday) at Roanoke is 82, set in 1944 … that one has the best chance of being challenged this week, with the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center map at left showing projected highs in the upper 70s to near 80 throughout Virginia and North Carolina on Thursday. The overall warm pattern, with high pressure dominating the eastern half of the country, is expected to continue into the foreseeable future, perhaps a couple of weeks or more, as there is no signal at all that it will shift substantially. There may be a short-lived break in the very warm temperatures this weekend as a cold front sliding in from the north may allow high pressure over New England to nose in somewhat cooler air for a day or two. Details are a little fuzzy on that now, as they are on any potential for weak fronts and passing disturbances to trigger a few showers and storms in the latter half of the week.
As for whether March will itself set a record for warmth, toppling Roanoke’s record average March temperature of 57.2 degrees set in 1921 would require the remaining 19 days of the month to average close to 63 degrees. That would mean averaging something like a 73 high/53 low over nearly 3 weeks — not impossible, given the pattern, but probably a stretch to expect, with even modest cold fronts or unexpectedly cloudy days possibly eroding that average. Having the second warmest March, slipping ahead of the 56-degree average of March 1945 (the only March on record to include a 90-degree day at Roanoke, on March 19) would require averaging 61 degrees from here on out, while unseating third-place 2007 (53.2 average) would require averaging about 57 degrees over the final 19 days of the month. Roanoke’s average temperature over the first 12 days is a little above 48 degrees. That is just about certain to climb several degrees in the days ahead.
March 13, 2012 - 12:21 AM
RSS feed 
I have no preference to these comment changes or blog changes just as long as if it is still relatively accessible and remains the Weather Blog we have all known to love and care about!
I despise this weather, however, I’m pleased my allergies haven’t kicked in yet. I expect that to happen very shortly though. Initiate total lockdown in my house! Gardening and yard work may be at a minimum but luckily I got ahead and did some of that work anyways…other things can wait until April when the plants are done “exploding” their pollen. I seem to get allergies when everything starts to bloom. Then in April, I get a little lull, but the in May, I get the pine bad! The pine is the worst! That usually goes into early June where my allergies finally cease!
I am happy though that this weather is great for golf and tennis! Especially golf! Doug, I don’t mind at all about your comments. I find them highly informative and excellent! Please don’t go off the blog! You’re a great addition to the blog and your comments are so good! The March statistics I highly enjoyed reading! It brought back some decent memories! You neglected to mention March 2001 though. I certainly remember the other Marches though and those were spot on analyses! Oh, and about golf, spring started for me on Thursday! I got out and played at Ashley Plantation! I would love to go to Draper later this year and plan on doing so. Great golf course and I haven’t been there since September 2010 when we were in the middle of “blast furnace” heat. I believe it was Sept 23 I went and it was 90 there and 94 in Roanoke!!! Ashley Plantation I love though! Have you played there? I’m sure you have! Fun course! And kept up well although I’m a bit disappointed the “Orchards” section has been closed the past 2 times I have gone there and that is the one I’ve been wanting to do. Anyways, on Thursday when I played, the wind was crazy! On the ridgetop hole (Hole 4, The Meadows)the wind was off the charts, my jacket was blowing in all directions and the wind gave my shot an unbelievable slice on that hole. I blasted it but it landed in the next fairway. Luckily, I found the ball and sunk it in for par surprisingly! I’m not that great of a golfer but that was my lucky day for sure!
Sorry for the long comment Kevin.
Also Doug, when I say “unbelievable slice,” I don’t think any one has ever seen such a wicked curve to the right in my ball direction. Crazy day for golf but enjoyable! I would assume winds at times gusted over 40 MPH.
It is a very balmy 57* here this hot second, which I think is the normal ROA high for today’s date. Channel 10 and I now have more “company” in terms of forecasted ROA highs of 80 degrees or more during this week. Both the NWS and “7″ are forecasting 81 for tomorrow and 82 (which would tie the ROA record according to what KM posted above) for Thursday. Even The Weather Channel is showing an 81 for Thursday (TWC is sticking with 79 for tomorrow).
Calm down, Doug, just because others now agree with you it doesn’t necessarily mean it will happen …. TRUE! But I certainly like the trend.
Already 50F up here on the ridge with a slight breeze and mostly cloudy skies this morning. Looking forward to warmer temps today. We did not receive any measurable rain yesterday.
Nurse Snow, I have had little holes in the ground under my bird feeders all winter. The chipmunks really love when the bird seed falls out and hits the ground.
61.3* @ daybreak.
Nick, yes definately tennis weather. Playing this evening.
If it’s 67F at 10am but the Weather.com hourly forecast says it should be 63F at 10am does that mean it’s going to be 81 later instead of 77?
I’m more a fan of cooler weather in March, but I’ll take this…it’ll make for a really enjoyable Saturday for the St. Patrick’s Day festival/parade downtown…assuming that 40% chance of storms in the NWS forecast doesn’t verify, that is. But I’m able to get out and get some yard work done with this warmth, and I’m looking to hit the links shortly too…I need to make ammends for my last round of last year that I played at the Meadows in C’burg.
All I have to say about these temperatures in March is ….YUCK!! Very intellectual of me,no?
68.2* at 11 AM. Baseball always made more sense than playibg goof. In baseball, you hit the ball as far as you can just like you do in goof. But with baseball, you got 9 guys that go get it and bring it back. A goofer does the same but has to run his own ball down just to get to knock it outta sight again maybe 100 times.
I’m with you wd on “goof”, not a big fan. I like putt-putt though LOL My girls play softball and my hubby coaches softball, much more entertaining to watch and play!
Elliot: You may be on to something. Roanoke officially 78 at 2 p.m. Might hit 80 today.
Thanks for your LOOOOOOOONG comment, Nick! I have played Ashley but do not like it anymore. Too many holes that I don’t like, although I must admit that some of their good holes are very good. I have not read through all the comments from today yet, but I see that the “Old Man of the Mountains (wd) … take that as a compliment, Mr. Brand, that was a rock formation in New Hampshire that can be seen on the back of the New Hampshire quarters, and it was a legendary tourist spot. Incredibly popular, too. But immediately after the quarters were first issued, the Old Man came tumbling down after being a famous rock promontory for scores of years, maybe more than a century” made a funny comment about “goof.”
Angela, it sounds like you would have enjoyed the weather of exactly 19 years ago today. Sorry, not gonna happen this year, darlin’. Those of us flatlanders have all stuck forks in this past winter by now, even me. The NAO continues its almost epic run in positive territory, and even though it does decrease a bit at the end of the 14-day GFS outlook, it is still in positive territory throughout.
Continuing the “goof” theme, and I may have mentioned this here in a previous year, it is absolutely true that baseball great Ted Williams and goof great Sammy Snead (who was born and raised in the Hot Springs, Virginia area, BTW) were good friends and went on fishing trips together in the wintertime, which was the offseason even for golf back in those decades. Pretty sure it was in the Largo, FL area, at the NE end of the Keys. Supposedly they had the following verbal exchange.
TED: “Hitting a baseball is one of the hardest things in any sport to do. The pitcher controls the speed and movement of the ball, he may refuse to throw strikes, and even if the batter does hit the ball well, the pitcher has the catcher, himself, and seven other fielders behind him to catch it. Some of the hardest hit balls I ever had were merely outs. On the other hand, you golfers get to tee the ball up to start each hole, you can use different clubs to hit the ball, and the ball is never moving when you hit it.”
SLAMMIN’ SAMMY: “That’s all true, Ted, all true. But if you hit a foul ball in golf, you gotta go out there and try to play it!!” LOL
To today’s and the next few days’ weather. High still holding at 88* according to wunderground website. With a low of 57, that yields a May-like mean (so far) of 68. Just a bit warmer than the normal mean …… of 46!!! A +22 day!!!!! I saw 82* on my car thermometer WHILE I was driving, and that has always been very accurate before (it was 86 a bit after 3 PM when I first turned on the engine after coming out of an appointment near the Roanoke-Salem border). And it remained at 82* all the way over to the Ridgewood Farms area, and was still 82* after I came out of there and for most of the way home (2+ miles). Dropped to 79 on Sugar Loaf Mountain Road.
Hey, wd, if you want me to stop calling you “The Old Man of the Mountains,” please speak up. I intend it as praise, not a tease or taunt.
Hey, Shanon Nurse “Spring,” have you ever gone to a golf driving range? With someone who knew what he or she was doing (that is crucial)? Reason I ask is that I have met plenty of men and women who used to dislike golf, but then someone persuaded them to try a driving range. And when they (finally?) did things right and the ball took off like a rocket for the first time ever from the clubface and flew out there straight for 150 yards or more, well, they were hooked (no pun intended) on the game.
Hey, I understand why many folks are not interested in golf. Even if the weather and your playing companions are nice, it can take what seems like forever and a day to complete a round. It is expensive. It can be truly frustrating. I maintain strongly that it requires patience and perseverance and a very short memory, and some folks have trouble with that.
For those of you who do not like golf and never will, you can always say what Mark Twain said about golf back in the late 1800s ….. “Golf is a good walk spoiled.” Right, hiking pro, Kevin Myatt??
Hey, Shanon, someone {it was you, Nick!! :>) :>) } made the mistake of mentioning golf here while I was in town, and I got carried away, as I always do. I meant to tell you how much I enjoyed your terrific comment about the little “chippies” acting like miniature, furry vacuum cleaners gobbling up the bird seed. TYVM!!
Roanoke’s official high today was just short of 80 … 79.
When i left work today at 4:00 the car temp was 84.It only dropped tp 79 by the time i arrived home in Marshall.It was hot in the parking lot in Warrenton.Doug Hill says 70`s until late next week.Still 66 on my thermometer at 7:35.
Where were you 19 years ago tonight? Seems this should be some sort of state holiday for snow lovers. Went back on you tube and checked out some of the TWC Local Forecasts that were running 19 years ago right now….unbelievable…..simply unbelievable. We will likely never again see the likes of it in our lifetimes. Good memories…good memories.
Just watched some videos of the 1993 storm. I won’t forget that one in my lifetime. Left the house Sat. afternoon when it keft getting worse. Got back home Thursday night. I had 3 of my rigs plowing as long as we could stay awake and 2 hired rigs doing the same. Folks, it was the roughest I’ve ever been in my life concerning snow removal. Over 30″ here on da Knob. I plowed snow the rest of the month. Don’t want to ever see another one like that because I don’t have the rigs to handle it now. Hard work, long hours, and fine pay at the time. Jest not now. Think every truck I had broke something every other day tho. It wears a unit out fast in those conditions. I lived the most extreme, famous, talked about weather event in any of our lifetimes. I was there. Was interviewed several times. And 1996 wasn’t any walk in the park either. Worked on equipment half the summer. Memories!!!
Probably the most dangerous storm I’ve ever been in. Unless you was out in it for 4 days, you probably wouldn’t believe it. Wind blew constantly at 50 mph+. My flapper gauge pegged and stuck at the top at 75 mph on da Knob Fast as we plowed it off, it started drifting back in. I don’t know when the stores ran out of staples, but if you didn’t get them by around noon Sat., you didn’t get them period. Only saving grace was it was so bad that there was absolutely no traffic on the road. Except for the ones with vehicles built to go like mine were. When I finally got home Thursday, I crashed and slept close to 24 hours. Needless to say, enough was enough.
Venus and Jupiter in the western sky, separated by a thumbs width. Kinda neat, especially since it’s a nice night to go out and look.
Well, this 80 degree weather has the Bermuda at the golf course going green, just like Obama! LOL Just kidding! He might be where all this hot air is coming from! Anyhow I guess the golf season is fully underway now, we start working weekends this week! BLAH! Hope the TGR I sprayed on the Poa keeps the seed heads at bay, another application coming tomorrow! Gotta get my beauty sleep so I make sure I put the correct ingredients in the tank! Oh, by the way, could we maybe get a cool front soon? This June weather is absurd in March!
Yes Matt – just was out walking the dogs and saw Venus and Jupiter. Nice night to be out stargazing.
wdbrand – I remember the ’93 storm well. It was a doozey! I looked at some of the pictures on WDBJ 7 on line – that was some storm.
57 F here at 9:50 pm
Fantastic sunrise in Roanoke this morning.
I took this shot from Mill Mountain.
http://instagr.am/p/IHINLAPVOJ/
First off, wd, God bless you for all that incredible work you and your guys (any gals?) did those many moons ago. I wonder if there is anyone on this planet who lived through the Ash Wednesday Nor’easter in March 1962 and the Storm of the Century on this date in 1993? Weird that they each happened a week apart in terms of the date in March of their year (March 6-9 for the 1962 Nor’easter, March 13 start date for the SOTC) Thanks for telling that the storm lasted so long in terms of unbelievable winds, wd. I was on the “lee side” of Washington DC, and we got a decent snowfall (only 6 measly inches) with some wind, nothin’ more. Different story for the entire I-81 corridor in Virginia (including Winchester and Front Royal, I know). Heck, different story for an enormous chunk of the eastern half of the USA.
Jared, what golf course do you work at? I have played a few around Charlottesville, and even a couple to the NE of there, too.
Blacksburg Mike and wd, where did you see the videos? I went to weather.com and found zilch. I missed the beginning of Channel 7 News at 6.
It is too bad that nobody who lived through what I think was called the “Knickerbocker Blizzard” of March 12-13, 1888 is still alive. I once read quite a bit about it, and that one was also epic. Centered more on New York City …. the name came from the Knickerbocker Hotel in NYC, I think … with other East Coast cities such as Philly, Hartford, and Boston also getting bombed. There were no cars back then, and I think that I read that commerce came to a standstill for about a week in New York. So if one adds in that storm, that makes three that occurred between March 6 and 15th that were ENORMOUS!!! There is a decent chance that there will be another huge first-half-of-March storm to hit the eastern U.S. within the next ten years. Might not be snow, however …. could be a repeat of the 1962 Nor’easter.
In 1993, I was several hundred miles west of the action, covering a high school state basketball tournament in Arkansas. In fact, where I was, the 1993 Superstorm was a “bust” — one of the three disturbances that went into the Superstorm was expected to drop a couple inches of snow on us, but it did not, the energy basically jumped us into the Gulf storm as it formed. The only effects our region got out of it was stiff northerly winds. The local high school boys’ basketball team that had been undefeated until the final game of the regular season lost in the state semifinals on its home floor. A cold shoulder for local snow fans and basketball fans. I watched in amazement on TV as Birmingham and Atlanta were getting nailed by a true blizzard.
The undefeated team that lost back in 1993 Kevin …. please don’t tell us it was your ‘alma mater’ high school?
It was indeed my alma mater, Doug, Jonesboro High School in NE Arkansas. But they won it all the next year. That was a fun ride covering those teams, with several future Division I athletes. I’ve been blessed with many different journalism “lives.” I think this weather gig is the best yet.
I was almost 18 years old in March of ’93. We lived in Grundy,Va. at the time. I vaguely remember that storm.
I’m not holding out hope of snow right now. I’m just not a fan of hot weather. And yes..to me 80 degrees is hot! Strange though…seeing as how I’m originally from Florida. Just not my kind of weather. I love 65 degree days…
Temp has dropped all the way down to a “brutally cold” 57* here now. Nice clear conditions with a last quarter moon shining down. Here are some lyrics for 3 hours from now. Imagine Gordon MacRae being reincarnated and coming to your home or workplace and singing it. Note: there are some minor adjustments to the lyrics. From the movie version of Oklahoma!
“OH WHAT A BEAUTIFUL MORNIN’ …. OH WHAT A BEAUTIFUL DAY!
I’VE GOT A NOT SO BEAUTIFUL FEELIN’ …. IN APRIL WE’RE GOING TO PAY.”
60.1 @ 7 AM
The ones I saw were on Accu-weather.
I had a late night for work yesterday and was shocked at how warm it was going home. I had to turn on the ceiling fan! Allergies have really kicked in and daffodils and many trees are in full bloom here in Hokieburg. Students in shorts and flip-flops but then they have been that way much of winter. But I do remember April of 2007 and backpacking at Pickles Branch/Dragon’s Tooth area in below freezing weather that Easter weekend. It got down to about 25 but no wind so it was manageable in a down bag with a Hot Hands tossed in.
Today’s record high (March 14) for Roanoke is 86, set in 1990. It probably won’ be challenged. Neither, probably, will Blacksburg’s March 15 record on Thursday, which was 82 in 1973. March 15, 1973, was a hotter day in Blacksburg than Roanoke, as shown by Roanoke’s March 15 record being the same temperature, 82, but dating to a later time, 1944.
LOL Doug! Your morning song I believe will hold some truth. I truly believe latter part of March, or early April we will pay for this weather. My grandfather used to say that what Feburary borrows from March, gets paid back in April. It will be interesting to see.
Now, I have played golf with my hubby before. He used to play frequently until he developed some significant back issues. I’m not bad at it, just wasn’t my thing.
As far as the 1993 storm, I was a senior in high school in Saltville, VA. I remember it well, b/c we missed over a week of school. I have a picture somewhere at my parents of the snow reaching my windows on my car.
Kevin,
I last posted a couple of days ago asking about the record monthly high and your expectations that we would not be reaching the 57 mark. Since then am now looking at the increasing temperatures being marked up on the forecast from accuweather and averaging what has transpired so far and their forecast we would be almost right at 57 degrees. Time will tell, but I am definately enjoying this great weather.
Michael: At the bottom of the entry above is a paragraph explaining numerically what the final 19 days of the month would have to average to be warmest to third warmest March on record.
If this current weather regime truly holds in til month’s end it will have a shot at warmest on record. But models that far out may not pick up on short lived cooldowns, like a cold air damming wedge that might last a day or two, or even a late month pattern change, that could erode the average some. So that’s why I’m hesitant at this point to project a near record warm March while acknowledging it is at least a reasonable possibility.
This spring/summer-like weather is all very nice this time of year, but I can’t help but feel a bit wary about the coming months. An Oklahoma-style summer around here wouldn’t be fun! Or does one thing have nothing to do with the other?
A warm winter/spring does not always lead to a hot summer. Even our hottest summers have not been as hot an an average “Oklahoma-style” summer, so that would be extraordinary.
According to hourly automated instrument at the airport, Roanoke has hit 80 at some point today.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KROA.html
A long way out, 10-plus days, there is some tendency for the models to want to move the hot high pressure farther west into the central U.S., and perhaps even introduce a negative turn in the North Atlantic Oscillation. Nothing is showing a dramatic chill-out for now but it could shift the warmest weather away late in the month.
CPC long-range maps show a subtle shift west in the core of the warm air between 6-10 days and 10-14 days (though we’re still in the above-normal zone for each of those periods).
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
Some models also showing a somewhat downward turn in the NAO, which could lead to more blocking high pressure in the North Atlantic perhaps forcing a bit more cooler air farther south.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif
If we eventually get on the east side of the hot high, we could have N/NW winds from Canada with cooler air.
If you want to know what’s going on in your area, then wunderground and the network of PWS sites is the best on the web. I can’t speak for their forecasts but up to the 5 minute time frame data from all the stations is the absolute best. Forget NWS and iflows for current data. The radar is pretty good also. And no, I don’t work for them or get paid to plug their site.
I don’t believe it! I just had a long comment get wiped out, and in a way it was my fault. I forgot to enter the Captcha BS. GRRRR! wd, thanks for the info about Accuweather’s videos of the March 1993 monster snowstorm. I will go there after finally finishing this comment and the next one. I hope that those videos are still available. Nurse Hot Spring, thanks for the “LOL” about Gordon MacRae. I appreciate the encouragement. But I bet there are a few folks out there who are thinking that you should not have done it …… “DON’T ENCOURAGE HIM! (meaning me)” :>) :>)
If we get hit with a big freeze in April, I will really start to freak out. I will explain, in 10,000 words or less. First of all, Kevin-me-boy , you are absolutely correct in stating that what happens in March has no relation to what the summer will be like. You (possibly with some help from me) outlined quite a few warm Marches in the past, and sometimes the summer was cool, sometimes normal, sometimes hot. Having said that, I will get really worried because then this spring will be March and April 2007 Deja Vu All over Again. March 2007 in Roanoke, a +6.0, the 3rd warmest ever going back 100 years. Then April 5-11th 2007 were all at least 10 degrees colder than normal, with four straight mornings getting down to 28-28-31-29. Tremendous fruit tree damage. But what really will have me worried is what happened in August and September 2007. More in another too-long comment.
August 2007 in Roanoke was the hottest month in Roanoke history, and by a whopping 1.8 degrees based on the records being used back then. 27 of the 31 days in that August reached 90, and something awful like 13 days reached 95. Four reached 100. The lowest high temp was 86. There were two long streaks of about 9 or 10 days when the low temp never got below 70*. And the heat kept right on ticking into September. High on Sept. 3rd was 89, then the next seven days were all over 90. And three more days late in the month also reached 90. RIDICULOUS!!! From August 1st (actually July 31st, with a high of 89) right through September 10th 2007 it was brutal, unrelenting, scorching heat. THAT is why I will be freaking out if we get an APRIL freeze.
wd, I agree fully with what you just said about wunderground and their network of multiple sites with very frequent updates. I also happen to prefer their NEXRAD radar, but it does have a few minor drawbacks (once it was raining lightly at my house, and it was not brief, but NEXRAD showed zippo). wd, do those sites register rainfall amounts? I will start checking them out if they do.
81 degrees in New River, Pulaski County today…according to both the car thermometer and the one at the house. Summer before St. Patty’s Day. I suspect the smattering of blooms I see from trees, daffodils, and forsythia today will become pretty widespread by week’s end or next week.
My vantage pro2 said the temp got up to 83 here on the lake at halesford rd
You click on any site and you can see the current rainfall and rates. You can see the 5 minute rates. You can see what the rates were 10 years ago. Go over there and play around a bit before you need them.
Officially today: 81 for Roanoke, 75 for Blacksburg.
Hey teachers and school nurses, there was a heart-warming story that just finished on WDBJ7. Nothin’ to do with the weather, except that the “celebration” took place outside today in great weather. The principal at Crystal Springs Elementary School had a project in which the kids were challenged to learn/memorize as many as possible the decimal places of Pi. The 3.1416 etc math number. 17 kids memorized the minimum number of decimal places (could it have been 50??!!), and got to throw a pie at the principal, who was decked out in an oversize baggie and plastic hair net. Everyone had a great time!! They had pictures. Watch MY19 at 10 PM or “7″ at 11 PM and they will probably repeat the story.
Doug…my totally unplanned celebration of Pi Day was that on my way to work this morning, my new car’s odometer passed the 3,141.59 mark. I didn’t even realize it at the time, only when I got in my car at lunch to ship some packages, and saw that it was at 3,143.
But, that gets me to thinking that 3-14-15 at 9:26:53 AM will be a pretty unique moment in time (3.141592653 being Pi to 10 significant digits).
Ok, the nerd hat is coming off now…back to this fabulous weather!
Doug-Also go to You Tube and do a search on March 1993 Superstorm. Alot of the original Weather Channel segments are there including Local Forecasts. Some of the forecasts out of Alabama are truly surreal, discussing blizzard conditions, etc. Also of note is a live shot from around 11:30am that Saturday showing a very young Mike Siedel in front of the current map, with snow falling all the way into the Florida panhandle. It was almost as if, even as it was happening, they just could not believe it really was. When you think about the fact that it was the middle of March and there was a blizzard in Alabama and snow in Florida, it is just too incredibel for words. It will NEVER happen again in our lifetime.
Interesting how on the GFS, a real deep trough forms over California at 100 hours, then a cut-off low is left over Texas at 150 hours. Something to watch how it all works out.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html
The GFS likes to go nuts on cutoff lows in the long range. Still, it’s pretty telling how that big trough slams into the heat wall and doesn’t go any farther east.
Hopefully Texas would get some drought relief it the GFS scenario is close to reality.
Blacksburg Mike, you are probably pretty safe that as huge a storm in mid-March will come along and dump snow in Florida will never happen again in our (more impressive to say “your” … I am old … LOL) lifetimes. But be careful when using that expression. I never thought we would have another super warm March again, and then the threat of widespread frosts and freezes in April in our lifetime …. but that might happen again just 5 years after happening for the first time in about 60 years at Valhalla Vineyards on Mount Chestnut Road, two miles very uphill from where I live. If the warmth keeps moving west, and the NAO does turn neg, even for only a week or so, look out. By the way, and I am NOT predicting that the following is the start of anything, there is cold air in northern New England right now, possibly the result of a back-door cold front. It was 80 or 81 here at 5 and 6 PM, 68 in NYC, and 33 in Bangor, Maine.
I just looked at that GFS stuff that Rick posted as a link ….. TYVM, snow-liker. The position of that computer-generated cutoff low on March 21st would be ideal!! Because it is not only over Texas, but west Texas, which along with SE New Mexico, is still in D4 drought. West Texas is in MUCH worse shape than the eastern half of TX. If it does verify, it would be still another case of Mick Jagger’s lyrics coming true (“you get what you need ….”), only very, very, very late.