More unseasonable warmth, more scattered storms as historic March continues
TODAY’S WEATHER JOURNAL COLUMN: Cleaning out the winter notebook, looking at the 10 least snowy “winters” (actually includes fall and spring, too) in Roanoke history. 2011-12 is NOT among them.
The summerlike weather pattern is slated to continue through at least Friday, with highs 15 or more degrees above normal in the 70s (and some low 80s) common, lows mostly in the 50s (near the normal highs for mid to late March) and chances of thunderstorms each day as moisture and outflow boundaries hang around from the previous days’ storms (such as those Tuesday that produced several reports of large hail, mainly east of Roanoke). By the weekend, a front will push in with a more widespread chance of rain (and perhaps some more organized strong storms), but it looks like only slight cooling behind before another rebound to warm next week.
With 11 days left in the month, I am already calling this as the warmest March on record for Blacksburg. Blacksburg’s records go back to 1952, and the previous warmest March was 48.5 degrees in 1976. This March through 20 days is already averaging 48.8 degrees. Blacksburg has had 2 consecutive days when both its high 
and low set records for warmth (77/50 on Tuesday to set new March 20 standards). The rest of the month must average only 48 degrees for Blacksburg to set the hot March record — looking at the overall weather pattern, that seems very likely to occur.
Roanoke’s records go farther back, to 1912, so they encompass very warm Marches in 1921 (57.2) and 1945 (56.0). At 54.9 degrees, this March would already finish third if it were over, and it has more time to close in and possibly pass the two ahead of it. It needs to average 61.8 degrees over the last 11 days to take over the top spot. The last 7 days have each averaged at least 61 degrees, and it seems many similar days are yet to come. So consider Roanoke to have a very good chance of setting a record for March warmth.
March 20, 2012 - 11:56 PM
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A “frigid” 51* here this pre-dawn. Why, it’s so cool here that it feels like May 10th for a morning low, instead of the mid/upper 50s of late May. :>)
Why do Blacksburg’s weather records only go back to 1952? I would have thought Virginia Tech, as an ag school, would have more complete records than that. Were they lost?
It is a Blue Ridge Mountain morning up here on the ridge. It is 48 F and fog has settled in the valleys. Time to watch the sun come up over the ridge.
I shut my computer down early last night due to the storms rolling into Roanoke. I can’t afford to replace it if lightning strikes it. My sweet loveable big dog didn’t appreciate the noise and light show. He spent over an hour nursing on one of his toys. (Doug: He is a Leonberger; hence my moniker, Leo Lady.) It looks like we will have more storms again today and I can’t say that I am looking forward to it. I am feeling a bit soggy and would really like to see a few days of cool, dry weather. Kevin, can you place an order for it.
Strong storm about 5:30 Tuesday. Small hail and heavy rain. Strong wind aboutu 20 mph. Very dark cloud. Maybe .75″ rain in 30 min. BIG fat full rainbow.
As much as I prefer cold and snowy weather, even I have to say I’ve really enjoyed this unseasonable warmth. Got lucky last night too with the storms, they veered around New River just enough that I was able to finish mowing the yard (and it was already super thick too), cleaning up the flowerbeds quite a bit, and getting the ant protection for the house applied. Another couple days like that, and I’ll have every bit of yard work for the spring and early summer done, before we even hit April! I’ll take that…
Tree: The Weather Journal commenter known as “HokieTrax” did a little research and found that there are some intermittent records prior to 1952.
For now, 1952 is when the data exists that the weather service considers official. Roanoke’s data period used to go back only to 1947, but was extended to 1912 through the “ThreadEx” project finding older records from a few different sites within the city.
Weather record keeping for any location has a lot more holes than is ideal. Snowfall records, in particular, are porous. Blacksburg’s data misses all of February 1960, and as a result, a year that is probably the snowiest on record there isn’t even listed among the Top 10. And relocating the official site for the instruments can change temperature patterns due to elevation or proximity to development.
I would say available historic records give us a good idea how the past has gone, but not always an exact picture, given different kinds of instruments, different location, data gaps, etc.
Speaking of weather records — a look back at the 10 least snowy winters of the past century for Roanoke in Weather Journal today:
http://www.roanoke.com/weather/wb/306451
Kevin,
I am soooo much enjoying this great warm weather, I don’t particulary like cold weather. I know those cold weather people didn’t get much of a winter this year. I felt earlier this month that this might be a record month for temperatures and it seems to be turning into one. I can’t wait to see the final results. I do hope that we have a normal warm summer – not a record breaking one.
Kevin,
Which site and zip code are you using to perform your averages for the month? I’ve been using Accuweather.com and Roanoke,VA – which defaults according to them to 24011. I have an average of 54.2 through 3/20. Based on their forecast for the rest of the month the average would be 57.97 or 58 – of course it is still very early to say it will be the hotest – but it certaily looks close.
I use only National Weather Service official data for Roanoke Regional Airport and the weather service office at Blacksburg. That is what goes in official record books.
I noticed one typo I have since fixed … per NWS data, Roanoke is now averaging 54.9 degrees. I had 54.5.
Here are the links to running data for March for Roanoke/Blacksburg:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/climate/f6/2012/201203_BLACKSBURG.txt
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/climate/f6/2012/201203_ROANOKE.txt
Thanks Kevin! At least I helped you find your typo – LOL!
Persistent low clouds keeping temps in the low 60s so far for Roanoke area. Temps will shoot up quickly where sun breaks through. Record high for Blacksburg is 78 from 1968 … that probably won’t be touched. Roanoke’s 3/21 record is 88 from 1921 … that won’t be challenged at all.
Do you think it will get cold before February 2013? I planned a ski trip for the second weekend of that month and its not looking too good at the moment.
Some excellent comments here again. Thanks for replying, LL. I will have to try to get a picture of a Leonberger …. haven’t even heard of that breed of small hors …. er, dog. Just kidding you, LL. I only tease people I like …. unfortunately for you. :>) :>) :>) And you were smart to shut down your computer during the lightning, too. If our computer ever gets fried because I am on it when lightning hits our house, there will be an unholy terror unleashed. And I will be the “unleashed upon,” not the unleasher.
I sort of had a reverse fog trip to the NRV this morning. Had to go to Valley View Mall very early, and it was OK to go the speed limit, but it was still pretty foggy. Then headed WSW down I-81, and conditions got BETTER, not foggier. That was just the opposite of the summertime norm. There was still gloom and only 52* at Milepost 121, the bottom of the last long upgrade to the Christiansburg/Blacksburg/Va.Tech exit (118). At the Exit 118 interchange? Sunny and 56. Occasionally it clouded up on me while I hit the goof ball, but it was basically sunny all morning close to Exit 90 of I-81. Fabulous goof weather.
John from Ruckersville, I got a nice chuckle, close to a LOL from your 2:36 comment. Here is another probably horrible Griggs outlook about the weather future for SW Virginia. I have a feeling that next winter will either be:
A. Another snowy one of at least 30+ inches for ROA and 36+ for Blacksburg (and possibly over 50 inches!!); OR B. Another fairly tame one, 13 inches or less of snow for ROA.
I am fairly sure that Kevin’s quick access to the statistics will pretty much back up the following comment. You know what we are due for, probably overdue, when it comes to winter?? A normal one. I know for a fact that the most recent 3 have been unusual for temps, 2009-10 and 10-11 being quite cold and this “winter” being ridiculously warm. And for snowfall, 2009-10 was very snowy and this past one was very light. 2010-11 ended up with what? 11 inches or so of snow for ROA? Well below normal but not extreme.
Michael, I also use the identical records for which Kevin provided a link. I am fairly certain that he was the one who gave me that link many years ago. FYI, the Roanoke Regional Airport (“RRA” as I nearly always refer to it) is in zip code 24012. It would be interesting if you were to go to wunderground, plug in that zip code, and see if the records for that zip matched the airport’s official statistics.
LeoLady, I just looked up Leonberger via youtube link to Dogs101. **** NON WEATHER COMMENT!!
They look fabulous!!! If I were younger — a lot, lot younger — and had a really big field and plenty of free time, I would love to have one. The description says they are great people dogs, and that both the Germans and the Italians use them for Search and Rescue teams! But I am sure that you already knew that. Also said that a Newfoundland was also used in part of the original breeding process. “Newfs” are another dog I would LOOOVVVEEE to own if I lived in Canada or Minnesota or N. Dakota, where the winters are nearly always cold. I don’t think it would be fair to the dog to have one here in SW Virginia, but that is a personal statement, not a judgement of anyone else if they own a Newfie. Nancy and I learned about the Newfs on our one trip to Newfoundland about 6 years ago, and both of us immediately fell in love with the breed. Three of my other favorite breeds are Golden Retrievers, Black Labs (the clowns of the dog world, and I adore a clowny, extremely playful dog), and Siberian Huskies. Maybe I could own a dog that was a combo of the five!! In golf they have a tournament format called “Best Ball.” I would like to have the best attributes of those 5 breeds and call it “Best Attribute.”
A follow-up to my 4:25 comment. ***** STILL A NON WEATHER COMMENT.
If any of you want to learn about any breed of dog, I strongly recommend going to youtube and in the search window, type in “Dogs 101 – Beagle” or whatever breed you may want to learn about.
Right now I have a window open for “Dogs 101 – American Pit Bull.” It is a SUPERB video, and I know what I am talking about (for a change), being a letter carrier. This breed has gotten an incredibly bad rap in American society. And these words come from a letter carrier who was savagely attacked by one on an August afternoon roughly 8 years ago. My mailbag/”satchel” saved me from severe injury, until a next-door neighbor came out and yelled at the dog to “GO HOME!!!,” which it did very calmly. But nearly every other pit bull I have known or seen is sweet-tempered, and that is a lot of them. Nearly every pit bull that has become vicious according to the video (including the one that attacked me) was raised by people who trained them to be aggressive. And can they ever be aggressive!!!!
Hopefully the following will never happen to any of you or your loved ones. But the Cardinal Rule when a person is attacked by a pit (and this comes from the Roanoke City Police, who gave a brief talk to us letter carriers about dog attacks a few years ago) is: UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES ALLOW THE DOG TO GET YOU ON THE GROUND! The pit bull will then go for the throat. So if a pit attacks and does get a person on the ground, yell at the victim to immediately cover their throat.
I APOLOGIZE FOR THIS “SERMON.” But maybe a few of you will find it useful.
John from R-ville: It won’t help this ski season, but I think Snowshoe will get 1 or 2 accumulating snows in April.
I just looked to the west (or WSW) of my house, and a big cloud seems to be forming. Could it be that a pop-up t-storm is about to form? Doubtful. Nothing on radar. But ……
Mr. Griggs, that ain’t a dog!. It’s a cross betwixt a wooly mammoth and a musk ox. Who could afford to feed one? It tis one fine looking animal.
And I might add, with a double fur coat, you would have to run him thru a carwash under a high pressure hose to even make a dent in that fur.
I just took a look at radar that covers as far SW as Bristol and as far NW as Charleston, WV. There are about three pockets of t-storms, and they are hardly moving. What is the meteorlgcl term again for that, KM? Anyway, the one in SW Virginia is pounding the southern reaches of Marion County and the western corner (is that where Mount Rogers is?) of Grayson. The two in WestbyGod are one just south of Summersville (which is ESE of Charleston and north of I-64, and one just about sitting on the I-64 bridge over the New River (well east of Beckley, and west of Lewisburg), as my best guess. That is one beautiful and breath-taking bridge, but there is no way I would want to be on that structure when a strong t-storm was happening.
Here’s my weather post. Had about 1/8th tank of oil in Sept. Ordered 100 gallons. Got a little under 1/4 tank left. I’ll take that kind of winter every year. Currently 70.5*
Doug: Thanks for your kind comments on Leonbergers; they are wonderful dogs. However, they are large double coated dogs which are often more suited for cooler climates. We have not been very happy with these March temperatures. It is far too hot! We have already turned on the AC which is programed to get cooler during the heat of the day. I know that is backwards, but we go all out to keep the big boy cool. He knows where every vent in the house is and usually has two three favorites that he sleeps under. Tomorrow and Friday look like AC days, but maybe we can catch a break over the weekend. BTW, both Leonbergers and Newfoundlands are water breeds, but the Newfie’s drool and Leo’s don’t (big plus for Leos).
Kevin: I saw that you mentioned the possibility of snow for Snowshoe in April. Does that mean we can hope for some (much) cooler weather here? Please!
wdbrand: Leo’s usually do not eat more than an average Lab as they have lower metabolism rates. In other words they are often a little slower moving and a bit lazy from time to time. Therefore, it does not cost that much to feed one, but meds are dosed by a dog’s weight and my older dog’s arthritis meds are quite costly. As for bathing the wooly mammoth, it takes a good deal of time and effort. Once clean and brushed, they are beautiful dogs. Most importantly, they are known as gentle giants and great family dogs as they love children.
We bought a bag of ice this evening to put in the big guy’s water bowl tomorrow and Friday. Have we skipped spring and gone straight to summer? If we don’t get a cool break soon, I will have to bring out the big dog’s kiddie pool!
Leo Lady, great stuff. I must admit that “The Old Man of the Mountains” had me laughing out loud with his comments about a musk ox and high pressure hoses at the car wash!! Great comments by both of you!!
Leo Lady, perhaps you already know this, but I would be willing to bet that most folks didn’t, and I was certainly in that group until the trip more than halfway to Iceland (In other words, Newfoundland). Even if they are out on a walk with their owner, provided that they are unleashed, if a Newfie sees a person in trouble in the water, even if a half mile away, they will jump in and go rescue that person!!! Even in 32 degree water. I was skeptical, but there is a plaque in a park in Saint John’s (the capital) describing this, and all the locals verified it as true. Kind of like that of Saint Bernard’s in deep snow. I bet your Leonburger would do the same if presented with a life-and-death situation.
Speaking of these incredibly warm temps, wouldn’t it be great if April and the first half of May were just normal for temps (which is a bit cooler than what we have been having), that the 2nd half of May was a tiny bit cooler than normal, and June (and of course all summer) were much below normal for temps? That would mean 4 months of spring!! Of course, it ain’t gonna happen that way. I bet either April or May will be cold and wet (which at least would be better than hot and very dry, especially for May), or at least very wet.
At least the normal high temp for ROA reached 60* today, although the normal low is still in the upper 30s (38*). The normal low does not reach 40 here until the 28th.
For Blacksburg, the normal high temp does not reach 60 until April 5th! And the normal low doesn’t get out of the 30s (it was 31 for today!!) until …. April 25th!!