UPDATE 10:45 AM, 3/15: Scattered storms may take a bit off early March heat today into weekend; record high looking less likely for Roanoke today
UPDATE 10:45 a.m., 3/15: A slow moving area of heavy rain and storms in southern West Virginia (latest NWS-Blacksburg radar linked here) is ejecting high cloudiness eastward over Southwest Virginia, and that may be enough to shave a few degrees off high temperatures today. Some showers/storms may occur in parts of Southwest Virginia, especially west of Interstate 77, and perhaps eastward into the New River Valley, though the showers/storms will be outrunning their best source of lift and deepest moisture. Flash flood watches and some warnings are out for several counties in West Virginia, Ohio and Kentucky. END UPDATE
Roanoke reached the 80-degree mark, hitting 81, for the first time in 2012 on Wednesday. Quite likely, it will occur again on Thursday, when the March 15 daily record high of 82 set in 1944 will have maybe a coin’s-flip chance of being tied or eclipsed. Blacksburg, which came 2 degrees short of a record with its high of 75 on Wednesday, probably will not come that close to challenging its March 15 record high, also 82, set in 1973 (UPDATED; previously listed year 1915 was incorrect). There is no sign of real change in this weather pattern in the foreseeable future — maybe some hints it could shift a bit 2 weeks or so out, but that is way too out to be taken very seriously yet. The pattern, with dominant high pressure over the Eastern U.S. more akin to June than March, is allowing enough moisture and warmth to build that scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop during several upcoming afternoons, possibly even a few on Thursday. Weak upper-air disturbances moving through will aid in triggering showers and storms, but it appears that any more organized storm systems will be blocked from entering the region and mainly stay to the west and north. (The Hydrometeroological Prediction Center’s 3-day rainfall map from Wednesday night shows health rain totals in Kentucky, but not getting east even as far as I-77 — maybe the far southwest tip of Virginia will see some of this.) While wind flow aloft is weak and more like summer, and therefore not conducive to large-scale development of rotating updrafts that can trigger supercell thunderstorms and tornadoes, the unseasonable warmth by itself may provide enough juice for a few strong storms to develop now and then, mostly with isolated gusty downburst winds and perhaps some hail. Most people in our region will not see these storms, though, and most storms that do develop will not be that strong. The main effect of the increase in showers, storms and clouds will be to nudge high temperatures back a few degrees after Thursday. 80 is possible any day the sun can beat down consistently, but a few of those days will likely be only in the 70s — “only” in the 70s being a very odd thing to say in mid March.
March 14, 2012 - 9:54 PM
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Hey, here is a question with a personal interest. Will tomorrow feel quite a bit warmer than today, because of higher humidity? I gotta walk for most of the day tomorrow, especially after 11 A.M. I hope a breeze comes up by not later than 1 PM.
The dew point is a dryish 40 tonight. It will almost certainly climb from that on Thursday, but don’t expect a sauna-like day, either.
I just looked at TWC’s hourly forecast for tomorrow ….. 30% chance of a t-storm starting at 4 PM. Provided that it does not hit before then, that will be fine. We usually finish delivering about 3:45, unless we have to work overtime.
I imagine I will tell a few poor souls tomorrow PM my old standby joke. If asked if I think it is going to thunder, I used to say, “Well, I don’t know for sure. But I think I just saw Margaret Hamilton on a broomstick in the western sky a few minutes ago ….”
M. Hamilton was the actress who played The Wicked Witch of the West in the Wizard of Oz. Remember the “Surrender Dorothy” scene?
Something for you Thunder Birds to read while
the Towering Cu start to evaporate from the Easter Lillies.
New Radar…..Woohoo
http://www.star-telegram.com/2012/03/13/3807571/new-weather-radar-to-be-tested.html
Doug…I remember trying to work in the garden a couple years ago when we had 20% chance of storms. We got a really good 20% chance that day, and the next, and the next…
67.3* at 5 AM.
KM-Quick question? You mentioned Blacksburg’s record high for today was set in 1915. I am confused, as I thought Blacksburg’s data only goes back to 1959.
Blacksburg’s record high was set in 1973.
KM,can you look on wunderground.com and then go to PWS and tell me which station is the one for WDBJ[MD3983??????] and which one is the airport? I’m not sure they are even listed on wunderground. Thanks.
Kevin: I have been watching several forecasts and all seem to be flipping back and forth with rain for Saturday. Do you think it will stay dry for the St. Patty’s Day parade? I would like for it to stay dry as being down there in rain is not fun: been there and done that.
Bburg Mike, Kevin Ray: Fixed the record high year for Blacksburg to 1973. Don’t know where I got 1915 from – probably thinking March 15. And maybe having the A/C out in the Roanoke Times building caused my brain to sweat too much. Blacksburg’s records go back to 1952 actually.
Leo Lady: The chance of rain on Saturday will be scattered showers/storms, most likely not an all-day rain that affects everyone. Afternoon/early evening when it is warmest will be favored. For now I would say parade is probably going to be fine, but might want to keep an eye on radar Saturday morning to see if there are stray showers to dodge.
wd: It does not appear that the Roanoke Regional Airport site appears among wunderground’s weather station list, which appears to be limited to truly “personal” weather stations.
Any chance the showers & storms in WV hold up and make it into the area? The forecast says partly sunny and no chance for rain until tonight (20%)…but the forecast discussion mentions showers or storms are possible in the mountains.
Was just going to comment on that, Other John. The storms are only slowly moving eastward and will be moving out of the region of main lift and deepest moisture. I would think at least the New River Valley westward might have some chance of seeing some showers out of this area.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=fcx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no
One thing it is doing is that the blow-off cirrus clouds are filling our sky and may hold temperatures down just a bit.
Yeah, the cloud cover in Blacksburg is awful thick right now, and dew points are up into the 50′s with temps in the upper 50′s. As long as I don’t get rained on when I am out in the field doing some work, I’m cool with the idea of some rain today, though, I need to work outside the house today when I get home…weeds are coming in the flowerbeds…and the yard already needs mowing!
Just past noon and already 80 here in Greene county! Might have to fire up the irrigation at this rate, need some rain. Oh yeah Doug, I work at Greene Hills Club by the way. Send me some cooler air and some of that rain down yalls way!
Just heard thunder where I live in south Roanoke County.
Very heavy rain in eastern WVa trying to cross the border into Va. May get into at least some of the New River Valley. Will be interesting to see how far it tracks east.
Comment 11 from our fearless leader …. I love it. Been there, done that …. a zillion times. But for you, Kevin, tsk, tsk. You must have had a premature “senior moment!!” LOL Just kidding, of course. And thanks very much for helping me out this afternoon.
El Senor Jared French, thanks mucho for the info. Greene Hills is one I have never played. Dang, I wish I could contact you directly. I see that it is in Stanardsville, just a few miles off of US 29. With Bermuda grass fairways, if I ever play it, it would be after May 1 and before the middle of October. Are there any trees in any fairways? I despise that gimmick, although I must admit Draper has one on the 14th hole (which I have been lobbying unsuccessfully for a long time for them to get rid of).