Another toasty day on Monday for SW Virginia; midweek rains looking pretty meager
The graphic linked here shows the multi-day progression of Storm Prediction Center forecasts and how the tornado outbreak aligned with it in the Plains states on Saturday. The SPC had the region outlined with a risk of severe storms 7 days in advance, covered with a moderate risk of severe storms 3 days out and a high risk 2 days out. While identifying where exactly tornadoes will touch down remains difficult until within minutes, this early notification of a high-end severe weather threat was a tremendous forecasting success for the SPC and the weather service offices in the region, and it undoubtedly contributed to the low fatality count of five deaths. Click here to see several videos of tornadoes from the outbreak both Friday and Saturday.
Roanoke’s high temperature of 86 on Sunday was the hottest so far this season, 18 degrees above the normal for April 15 and only 3 degrees below the record of 89 for the date set in 1936. Blacksburg’s high of 81 only missed the standing record by a degree, set in 2006. Monday will be a similar day of temperatures, perhaps a couple of degrees cooler with some additional clouds as moisture builds slightly. The problem for anyone wanting rain this week is that the main energy of the Plains storm will move into the Great Lakes region and into Canada, 
taking away the dynamics, lift and some of the moisture flow from the Gulf of Mexico that could potentially trigger more rain and storms. As a weak cold front slides into the region Tuesday, some showers and storms could develop. On Wednesday, a weak wave of low pressure moving along the front may slightly increase shower activity. But as you can tell by Sunday night’s 5-day rainfall projection from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, amounts in our region are expected to be meager, a quarter-inch or less in most cases. That won’t be enough to head off any developing dryness or provide serious relief for the ongoing wildfires in the higher elevations north of Roanoke. Thankfully, those fires are considered about two-thirds contained as of Sunday.
The midweek system won’t hugely drop temperatures, just pull the mercury back from the summerlike highs of Sunday and Monday. But there are growing signals of a punch of colder air with frost/freeze implications possible by the weekend or early next week. This pattern of alternating warm and cold periods is fairly typical for April. Historic “normal” temperatures in the 60s for highs and 40s for lows this time of year are really the average between up-and-down extremes, not so much an expectation of steady temperatures through the month. Unless and until low-pressure systems dig farther south toward the Gulf of Mexico, Southwest Virginia will not see much rainfall or very many severe storms.
April 16, 2012 - 1:15 AM
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Record 4/16 high of 81, set in 1994, has a chance of being reached at Blacksburg. Record 4/16 high of 90, set in 2002, at Roanoke probably won’t be.
It’s a very different weather day than Monday, April 16, was 5 years ago, when there were blustery northwest winds and snow flurries. A significant nor’easter was pulling up the coast toward New England. There were several reports of downed trees across our region in the winds.
Or so they tell me. About 10 a.m., when I first heard about the shooting at Tech, I lost track of the weather that day.
Slight risk of severe weather stays northwest of us today in northern/central West Virginia. Some chance of scattered storms by evening through our region.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
It shifts south of us by Tuesday.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
I enjoyed the day yesterday! It was sunny, warm and slightly breezy at my parents house in Smyth County. The kids got to break out the shorts. I am back to the grind at work today though since my spring break is over, so I only get to see the sun through the windows…..
We hit 83.8 yesterday…and it’s already 77.3 in Goodview. Thanks for the journal update about this weekend. It wouldn’t be a Chance Crawford tournament weekend unless there was a chance of cold, rain or both.
What was the warmest March on record locally and in much of the eastern two-thirds of the United States was the coolest March globally since 1999 (still 16th warmest historically).
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/global/2012/3
Yes Kevin, 5 years ago today was an entirely different weather day. I remember the wind and blowing snow flurries and no electricity. I was on my way to Blacksburg with my 7 month old granddaughter to hang out at her mom’s office because they had heat and electricity. Her office was right next to the hospital and she called me to tell me to stay out of Blacksburg because something was going on and there were ambulances coming into the hospital. It was not until late that night when we got electricity that we found out what had happened just a few miles from us.
Kevin, if your job seems thankless at times, there was thanks on the front page of the paper today. “residents and officials credited days of urgent warnings from forecasters for saving lives”. This was from the article explaining how although one tornado was devastating, many others were not.
Trevar: I appreciate that. But I will say that (1) I don’t feel thankless at all in my weather blogger role and (2) I’m not really a forecaster. All the credit in this situation goes to the guys and gals in the Storm Prediction Center office and in the weather service offices up and down the Plains states, plus the local emergency managers and rescue personnel.
Interesting article taking the national media to task for several tornado reporting inaccuracies. Many of these are pet peeves of mine, too.
http://montgomery.raycomweather.com/2012/04/a-plea-to-the-national-media.html
Almost 90 at Roanoke today … high of 89 through 5 pm. Record is 90 set in 2002. Blacksburg tied its 4/16 record of 81 dating back to 1994.
Hit 88 for a high here so far,glad i turned the A.C. on yesterday.I`m glad that cold front is going to drop these temps up this way tommorrow to high`s in the low 70`s.We need rain up here bad just like everybody else does in the state.
How is the weekend looking so far and any idea when the rain will start? I was really hoping to watch the runners in the Blue Ridge Marathon, and would hate for the event to be washed out again like last year, but it doesn’t seem like the weather wants to cooperate this year, either.
“Scientist look at hot epoch to forecast future.” Kinda ties in with global warming concerns. I’ve got no axe to grind on the global warming issue. However, the Al Gores of the world are making good money on this horse. The title for the search can be found on Yahoo. Only goes back 3.15 to 2.85 million years ago tho. We think we are far more important than we really are. We aren’t spit, a grain of sand or a drop in the bucket in the big picture.
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 21-22 THIS COMING WEEKEND
I’ll keep this short and sweet. 12Z Euro & GFS show a huge
rainmaker and potential severe weather threat for this coming weekend for much of the eastern US, especially for the SE & Mid Atlantic.
12 Euro loop from PSU:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html
12Z GFS loop from PSU:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html
Roa10, don’t know how much will fall but at hour 144 on the GFS, it is showing over 0.5-0.75″ rain. Will update later.
Definitely some much needed rain on the way.
Roa10, Kevin will give his thoughts about the weekend for you, I hope, but Robin Reed (WDBJ7, in case a few of you don’t know) is predicting excellent chances of rain for both Saturday and Sunday, at least here in Roanoke valley. Per his 5:20 PM forecast. 60% Saturday and 40% on Sunday.
I feel sorry for those of you who want/need dry weather this weekend, but we need the rain more!! Friday is supposed to be dry, if that is at all helpful.
Please talk about this, KM.
I hope the new rainfall map from the HPC is right. It’s getting dry around here.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif
More on the weekend later. It does look like a good chance of rain with a storm system that will bring a shot of colder air behind it. Timing is a bit uncertain still.
All the weather sites point towards a wet day Saturday for the marathon. What is your take at this point? Am I going to get wet?
Haven’t had a chance to look at it extremely closely yet. Let me do that later and I’ll give some general timeframe on it, subject to change.
It certainly would take a lot to equal last year’s marathon monsoon.
Quick run-through analysis on several model runs:
Very impressive low-pressure system on each of them, forming very near the Gulf of Mexico and then either running up the coast or just inland. Would be significant to heavy rain, and severe weather potential east of the storm’s track.
Don’t think the marathon Saturday morning is a total write-off for being a soaker yet, many models hold the rain off till Saturday PM.
Euro is VERY aggressive with wrapping cold air into the storm. I would not rule out a significant very late-season snowfall event in the higher elevations especially in West Virginia and maybe even some of SW Va early next week IF the current Euro runs verify. If those Euro runs are accurate, just about all of SW Va. would see at least some snowflakes by Monday or Tuesday of next week. GFS is not nearly as aggressive with cold air, would be very little snow if it verifies.
Track will be very important, especially if the storm is as tightly wound as many models show it. Inland track raises severe weather threat for SW Va, including possible tornadoes. Coastal track raises higher elevation snow potential. Right now, I would split the difference and expect an inland track between coast and mountains, which would be mainly a heavy rain producer for us late Saturday and Sunday.
All of this subject to change.
The Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations appear to be slipping toward their negative phase over the next week or two. This storm developing this weekend may well be a pattern-change type storm system. The correlations between the AO/NAO and our temperatures are a little weaker in spring than in winter, but it could still push us toward a cooler overall pattern to end April and begin May.
The Euro model has tended to somewhat overplay low-pressure development in the East during the medium-long range this winter and last. And there is usually a northwest shift in the track of big storm systems in the models over 3-7 days. So for now I’m leaning against the colder/coastal versions of this storm and more toward the warmer/wetter/inland versions. Snowshoe probably ends up white at the end of all this, though.
I sort of blew my chance to comment briefly on the 100th anniversary of the sinking of HMS Titanic south of Newfoundland on Saturday night. But I will do so now. Two weather conditions contributed mightily to that tragic event. No, there was no storm that night. First, whatever the weather pattern was that late winter or very early spring was, it caused the number of icebergs floating in the sea lanes to be very high. That was mentioned not only in the James Cameron movie, but also in several books on the subject.
The other item? The wind and seas were so calm that night in the North Atlantic, that the surface of the ocean was like a protected pond … absolutely no ripples nor waves. How did that contribute to the collision with the iceberg? Because any wave action would have made the icebergs much more visible from a distance as the waves collided with them.
Now for the stupidity. The ship’s captain WAS trying to set record time for the transatlantic crossing, when safety dictated slower speed to allow more time to maneuver to avoid a collision with icebergs. And in an incredible development, the ship would have been stopped dead if she had collided “dead on” with the iceberg, but would not have sunk. Fewer compartments would have been flooded.
I’m glad you brought up the Titanic and its weather components. I passed on doing so because of the focus on the central US tornado outbreak at the time.