UPDATE 10:15 AM, 4/9: Breezes, dry air lead to continued high fire danger Monday; more frost/freeze issues by midweek
Latest on ongoing wildfires in western Virginia from Roanoke.com
UPDATE 10:15 AM, 4/9: The red flag warning has been expanded to include all of Southwest Virginia and much of southern West Virginia. There are actually come counties around Abingdon and westward that have both a red flag warning for today and a freeze watch for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning — there will probably be some more freeze watches/warnings and frost advisories issued for that time period. But for now, the big concern is a dry cold front that will whip up breezes into the 15-30 mph range as it blows through, causing the potential for fires to spread rapidly. END UPDATE
Unlike most other warnings and advisories issued by the National Weather Service, it may not be immediately clear hearing the words “red flag warning” what that means. Think of it as “fire danger warning.” A red flag warning has been issued for Monday afternoon and early evening generally from Blacksburg and Floyd eastward, including the entire Roanoke Valley. Counties farther west are under a “fire weather watch,” which is only a notch down in danger from a red flag warning. Our current weather pattern is driven by relatively cool, very dry air being pushed our way out of the prairies of central Canada. Another reinforcement of that air arrived at midday Sunday, and yet another is due near the same time on Monday. The latest “dry cold front” will again cause breezes to kick up from the northwest — generally 10-20 mph with 30ish gusts. Those breezes combined with very low relative humidity readings — below 20 percent at times — and some pretty dry surface fuels like leaves and grass that haven’t had much rain lately, will create the potential for rapid spread of any fires, as we saw Sunday in Alleghany, Botetourt and Craig counties. So, of course, outdoor burning is strongly discouraged.
With bright sunshine in dry air, and westerly winds blowing down the mountain slopes to compress the warmth, Monday’s highs may well reach the 70s in much of the region after near to slightly above-normal lows in the 35-45 range, depending on elevation and geography. The cold air behind the newest front will dig in a little more in the Tuesday-Thursday period, when we may see some more frost/freeze issues in the morning, and a day or two of below-normal highs not even reaching 60. West Virginia’s mountains may see those northwest winds squeeze out just enough of the meager moisture for some light snow — maybe enough for a white ground at 3,000-plus elevations in Greenbrier County — late Monday night and early Tuesday. A few flakes may drift into some of the higher elevations of Virginia, too, but borderline temperatures and very dry air will likely preclude any more widespread snow showers.
It’s looking likely that the high pressure system pressing the cold air southward later this week will shift east and turn the prevailing winds to the south and southwest by the weekend, which will start a warmup, and perhaps, a gradual re-moistening of the atmosphere that may lead to better chances of rain next week.
April 8, 2012 - 11:45 PM
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Kevin, are you ready to call the snow contest, or do you think there is still a chance before the 15th?
I know who the winner of the snow contest is and will be writing about it soon, once I have contacted them. The contest officially ends April 15, but it’s obvious there won’t be any significant snow this week (and even if there was it would take a major storm to change the result. The delay in my mentioning of it this year was the difficulty of grading when every entry was off by a large margin on at least 1 portion of it. But 1 entry was very close on both 1st snowfall dates and overcame missing the snow totals substantially. All I will say for now is that the winner is significantly younger than most or all commenters on this blog.
Is the winner a repeat winner? I would love to hear how and why they chose that date. Maybe they are a meteorologist in the making.
It was 37 F first thing this morning but then dropped to 34 F. No wind but thankfully no frost. I have my containers ready to cover everything tonight and the next night and the next night.
Not a repeat winner. Jamie Phillips’ improbable 2-year reign has ended (he is an adult.) The contest is on its 4th year … the first winner was a Lord Botetourt High School student. This one, I think, is even younger.
This weekend looks better than we thought last week. Are we still in store for some rain or clear all weekend?
Elliot: There is some possibility of showers with a warm front on Saturday or so. Forecasts aren’t reflecting it yet. But it doesn’t look like much. Overall, from this distance, looks to be a pretty nice, warming weekend.
A question Kevin. Currently 65* with winds averaging 10 mph+ and gusts to 26 mph. Not talking about wind chill here. Wondering how much the temps are being held down with the wind opposed if there was no wind. Would the temps come up and how much.
We have some competing effects with the wind. The winds are bringing in some cold air advection from Canada, but are also generally blowing downslope on this side of the mountains, which has a warming effect. Net effect may be close to a wash.
That’s what I said, except for the wash part. Without the wind, cold front moving thru, downslope winds warming, would it be warmer than 65*? Think ZERO winds in July.
Except we don’t have July sun hours, solar angle and stagnated air mass yet. I could see it being 80 today without the front, maybe.
The grass is green, the flowers and trees are gorgeous, but I had a very rare problem today that I don’t usually have this time of year …. sneezing several times. May have been dust inside the post office this morning, but I don’t know what it could be outside. I do know that the pollen levels are 12 out of possible 12, and the air is as dry as a desert. Maybe the big winds are blowing some grass around … I know for sure that I tend to get sneezy when fresh cut grass blows around. But I don’t have the itchy eyes or anything like that which is what the unfortunate true allergy sufferers have to deal with. Anyone else out there get bothered a bit today when they don’t usually have springtime allergies?
I think one of the big differences today is the wind direction. If it was out of the SW, things would be a lot warmer here today. Of course, it would almost certainly not be as dry an airmass, either.
About a week ago I commented that the CPC had issued the February (mean?) NAO number, a +0.42, the 6th consecutive positive reading. Now March has been made public, and it was a biggie, although surprisingly not as big as I thought it would get. A +1.27, the 7th straight positive month. I also looked back through “ancient” history, and found that in 1957 there was a streak of 9 consecutive positive monthly NAO readings.
For those of you not familiar with the temperature trends by decades, the 1960s and 1970s were both very cold decades, at least here in the USA. The cold actually started in 1958 ….. almost immediately after the 9-month NAO streak mentioned above. Does the current streak of positive NAO readings mean that history is going to repeat itself, and we will have two decades’ worth of cold weather?? Even I seriously doubt that (I am a skeptic about how much more long-lasting the current trend of 3+ warm decades will be). Besides, a person should never make assumptions about long-term weather trends based on a sample size of 1. But it will be interesting to see what happens to the NAO over the next two to three years. It is almost certain to go negative during most of this summer, I bet.
Mr. Griggs, I noticed pine trees are tasseling here on da Knob. Most early here so I suppose they are doing the same down in the hole. Might not be a full blown allergy but type dependent. Look around and see what’s blooming and make a note.
Just noted on Twitter that we now have red flag warning up til 8 this evening, fire weather watch on Tuesday afternoon/evening and freeze watch up for Wednesday morning, covering many of the same counties. That may seem weird, but really, it’s all the result of this very dry Canadian air mass continuing to move in.
Thanks, Mr. Brand. I will try to notice if I get sneezy around pine trees. Luckily I don’t have any here at home.
I see long term temps being below normal for our area extending through May. One would expect temps in the west to be above normal if we are below normal, but it seems like they’re below also (they should be the reverse of us but they aren’t). The only reason I’m concerned is because I have a Vegas trip the first week of May and I’d like pool weather. How is the entire country immersed in cooler temps for the next month-ish? Global cooling?
The first 8 days of April are now in the books on the Daily Climate Data page, and Roanoke is like an old sports car with an oil and radiator leak ….. runnin’ very hot and dry. 6 degrees warmer than normal, and RRA has only received 0.09 inches of rain, compared to 0.89 normally through 4-8. The year-to-date rainfall deficit is fast approaching 3 inches here, and will be more than that by Saturday morning unless an isolated rainstorm on Wednesday dumps a 1/2 inch on RRA. Soon Roanoke valley might be added to the D-zero “abnormally dry” designation by the Drought Monitor folks.
Matt: The Climate Prediction Center would strongly disagree with your projection.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1
For our region … I don’t see this week’s mini-cool snap hanging on past the weekend, when the Canadian high pushing the cool air in repositions to our east and southeast and funnels warmth northward/northeastward.
To answer your larger question though, it is possible for a long-wave pattern to develop with a southerly jet flow across the entire continental United States that would allow below normal temperatures to settle in throughout the lower 48.
SNOW coming “nearby” according to the NAM.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=FCX
Maybe we can coax a little more of that snow into Craig and Alleghany counties where the big wildfires are. Half an inch of snow put out the huge late 1980s Yellowstone fires.
In reply to your 7:49 comment, Kevin, Channel 7 thinks that starting with Saturday the heat will be on, at least for Roanoke. Forecasted highs for Sat-Sun-Mon: 75-79-78!! This Ancient Mariner … er, Mailman LLOOVVEESS that!! This is my long weekend coming up. Goof courses here I come ….
Mr. Griggs, in reply to your 5:55 comment, even if the NAO should turn negative, even very negative, during part of this summer, that means just about nothing for what our temperatures will be like. I found that summertime temps and the level of the NAO had just about zero correlation. Unlike late autumn and winter, when the correlation is very high, at least before late February.
Bulletin (sort of): Elizabeth Harrington of WDBJ7 just did a story about how apple growers are going to deal with the extremely early apple crop. One guy, Earl Gross, says he has never seen the apples start to ripen anywhere near this early, and Earl is no spring chicken. And Jennifer Ikenberry of Ikenberry Orchards in Daleville says her family ***** SPRAYS POTASSIUM on their fruit trees ***** to protect them from frost and freeze.