Cooler weather, maybe downright cold on a few days, appears to be the developing trend
FREEZE WATCH ISSUED EARLY SATURDAY MOST OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, INCLUDING ROANOKE, NEW RIVER VALLEYS
Another interesting statistical tidbit about March 2012: It was only the second month in any year since official records began at 1912 that Roanoke averaged 10 or more degrees above normal. March’s average of 57.4 was 10.1 degrees above normal. January 1950, at 47.5 degrees, was 10.9 degrees above normal. For the record, there have been 5 months averaging 10 or more degrees below normal: December 1917, January 1918 (yes, back-to-back months), March 1960, January 1977 and February 1979. The coldest month on record relative to normal: March 1960, with an average of 34 degrees, a whopping 13.3 degrees below normal. That might not be too surprising in a March that produced 30 inches of snow.
Since 1912, there has never been an April that has averaged cooler than the March that preceded it. I don’t think this April will, either, but next week may give it a fighting chance. Signals are growing that the bill is about to come due for the warm March with a several-days period of cooler than normal temperatures starting about the middle or latter part of next week. A cold front that passed through Wednesday evening will help bring an installment of the cooler weather in for the late week and weekend. Highs will struggle to make 60 Thursday and Friday, with some lingering showers especially south of Roanoke, and lows may be near or even a little below freezing in many locations across Southwest Virginia by Saturday and Sunday morning. Though Easter will start chilly for sunrise services, very dry air moving in behind the front will be warmed quickly by the sun, with highs again jumping into the 70s in many locations by Sunday afternoon. A strong cold front arriving around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week will punctuate a developing shift in the weather pattern that features strong high pressure and, therefore, above-normal temperatures over the Rockies with colder air pulled into the Eastern U.S. around the high’s clockwise rotation into a deep low-pressure trough, or southerly dip in the jet stream. With the Rockies high flanked by similar low-pressure troughs both east and west, this pattern may not break down very quickly. The result is likely to be a period of below-normal temperatures, and perhaps even some downright cold weather at times. (Normal temperatures for early/mid April are mid-upper 60s highs/low to mid 40s lows for Roanoke, and low 60s/mid-upper 30s for Blacksburg.) Certainly, some frosty mornings appear likely late next week, and a hard freeze is not out of the question on at least one morning. This does NOT appear to be a repeat of the extreme 2007 April freeze, in either intensity or duration, but considering the early growth many plants have shown in the June-like days of mid to late March, damage will be a concern if there is even a morning or two when temperatures are below freezing. There might even be a bit of snow next week, particularly as cold, northwest winds blowing upslope over the Appalachians squeeze out moisture behind the midweek front. As of now, this does not appear to be a long-term pattern change, and warmer weather may well return not long after the cool snap.
You didn’t really expect to have that March heat wave without some kind of April cold spell, did you?
April 4, 2012 - 11:30 PM
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The winter of 1917-18!!! Truly epic. Was that the winter or year when the worldwide flu epidemic hit? Or was that a year or two later? I bet Nurse Snow would know. Now that I think about it, I bet that it WAS a year or two later. I have heard a couple of doctors claim that flu thrives with temps in the upper 30s and low 40s and damp. Truly cold weather seems to cut it way back.
It’s too bad my parents are still not alive … they both lived through that 1917-18 winter, in eastern Mass.
Sit down, everyone, fasten your seat belts, here is a shocker … Griggsy was right for once. The Spanish Flu pandemic struck very late in 1918, and lasted for two years. 1/5th of the world’s population was infected at some point. More people died from the flu than died in WW1.
Boy, I just read some more gruesome facts from that pandemic at stanford.edu If you want to read about it for yourself, just google-search “Spanish flu epidemic.” Here is one tidbit: so many Americans died that life expectancy retracted 10 years!!
Temp at RRA now is 66*, according to wunderground. 64.5* here. I bet those are the high temps for today.
Rainy, dreary and a cool 53 F up here on the ridge this morning. Looks like more rain is coming. Hope some of it makes it down the mountain to Roanoke.
Temps are going to be slowly dropping throughout our area today, down into the upper 40s by late afternoon in the cooler spots (per WDBJ7). In fact, it has already happened (a signif drop in temp, that is) at my house. 58* when I got up an hour ago, now down to 53 after a decent rainstorm came through.
Bring back yesterday’s weather, please, or bring on Saturday’s. I can hear Mick Jagger teasing me: “You can’t always get what you want ….”
Now heavy rain and the temperature has dropped to 47 F. Raw day up here on the ridge.
Here, too, D Carol. Temp dropped a whole lot more and more quickly than what they forecasted. 48* here at Chez Griggs. “YCAGWYW.” Thanks, I guess, about the wishes for the rain making it into Roanoke valley, DC. Rain has been alternating between steady/moderate and drizzly. I will give a rain total here later on.
I just looked at several websites, including the NWS one, and all 3 {NWS, TWC, and WeatherUnderground} are forecasting a rebound of temps this afternoon here in Roanoke, to the upper 50s. And rain chances diminish, which I do believe. Do you believe the temp outlook, Kevin?
I think it will rebound at least a few degrees this afternoon once the rain moves by.
It always worries me when you disagree with Weather.com, because you’re usually right. They’re calling for the cool down to take place in the middle of next week and clear out by the weekend. I know it’s a long forecast for accuracy but is that possible?
Down to 43 F. We have had around “0.25″ inches of rain. May have to build a fire in the woodstove. Mr. Sun, where are you???
Joe in Texas – are you okay?
Brand new monthly ENSO Discussion Report just came out. The spaghetti map/graph of the 24 models’ outlooks definitely show a warming trend, with nearly all of them taking the SST {Sea Surface Temperature} in the Nino 3.4 region of the Pacific Ocean to positive numbers by the JAS timeframe. Three or four models even have the SST reaching the El Nino threshhold temp of +0.5 (vs normal) by the JJA timeframe. I will try to post a link to this informative graph in a separate comment. The consensus line (shown as a thick, yellow solid line on the graph) is for the temps to flirt with the +0.5 number throughout the 2nd half of this year, but to not quite attain it until the NDJ timeframe. However, at least 6 of the models (could be as many as 8 or 9 …. it is tough to read each separate line when they are bunched so closely) have the 0.5 temp by the JAS timeframe.
Attempt to link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/figure7.gif
I am not the only one not working today, Doppler Gal. So is Mr. Sun in these parts …. :>) :>). I am only a bit “warmer” than you, still a typical-daytime temp-for-late-February 48* here, with 0.2 in the gauge and more coming down. Everything is gorgeous around here, we are getting some of the rain we needed, but …..
Wow! Someone must have pulled the stopper out of the bottom of the thermometers up there. We are sitting at 64 here in Abingdon after morning rains and temps are not dropping. That front must be sitting right over us and that worries me since more storms may ride down the front this pm. Our creeks and rivers are full and with much more rain they will be out of their banks. I sure am glad you guys got some rain.
Our weather man said frost this weekend and possibly snow flurries next week. Looks like our feet will get cold in the Church Cemetery Sunday at Sunrise Service.
Elliot: We may be in for a little rebound by next weekend. Mid to late week, Wednesday to Friday or so, should be core of chill-down. Keep in mind that if we have totally sunny days even in that stretch, highs could easily make the 60s with so much dry air in place. What you may need to be a little more concerned about for that weekend (talking 13th-15th here) is that some models have been showing an overrunning and/or coastal type storm system developing. Could be a chilly rain if that occurs — maybe even wet snow at 3,000-plus elevations. Very iffy at this point. Such a storm system would put a damper on the temperature rebound.
Michael: HPC has the front well down in NC — but some of the cooler effects may be getting delayed your direction by an almost wedge-like setup, with the cooler air arriving more from the north than from the west.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif
Temp keeps dropping…down to 47 in Goodview. Only .02 in the bucket so far.
That would be our luck. Last year our event weekend was April 15-17. I’m sure you remember Saturday April 16th, 2011.
We still have something between light rain and a heavy mist up here in Christiansburg. 100% rain out for me.
44.6* here.
It is 45 here in NW city on Melrose. COLD!!!! We are getting paid back for Feburary’s warm weather!
D. Carol, your idea of a fire is looking better all the time. Stuck on 44* here.
44.7 now…NWS has changed the forecast at least 3 times since 8:30…up to .05 on the ol rain gauge.
Officially it goes down as a high of 66 today for Roanoke, right after midnight. But this level of rain and temperature drop makes this sort of a forecast bust. If rain doesn’t stop by 3 or 4 we won’t even rebound to 50.
Kevin, That HPC map shows the end of that front back into East TN near the VA border. That combined with us on the west side of the Blue Ridge Mtns is leading to our warm day. Last report Wise and Marion were at 52 and Abingdon and Bristol at 68. Severe storms starting to develope in East TN just south of the front. We may be close enough to the front to get another good soaking this pm.
“… sort of a forecast bust ….”!!!!! Boy, are you ever in a kind mood today, Kevin. When three weather orgs all forecast temps getting back up to at least 55 in Roanoke in the afternoon, and those updated forecasts are issued late morning (even the NWS update of 10:52 A.M.), and instead the temps are running in the mid-40s, I would call it a major bust. And the “line of demarcation” is nowhere near Big Lick, either. Wytheville a couple of minutes ago …. 45. Marion, VA., just 20 miles WSW: 68.
And a big batch of rain on radar headed straight for the Roanoke valley, too. And I bet it doesn’t get diminished one bit on “final approach,” either. At least ROA will do some decent catching-up on its rainfall deficit for 2012.
Forecasted high was 62. Actual high was 66. It’s a bust all right … on the warm side.
Not funny, KM. I was talking about afternoon temps, amigo. I am in a particularly grumpy mood now, and most of you can guess why ….. :>) :>)
… just the irony of statistics … no one looking at Feb 19 temps of 52/32 would ever think there was 6 inches of snow that day.
Doug, maybe you better pack up and head to the far SW for some golf. I will not deceive you in that you may have to dodge some showers but at least you can do it in your short sleeves.
Well, I did see 44 briefly earlier in the afternoon but now it is down to 42 with a heavy mist out of the east. There is a fire in the woodstove!
New CPC maps have colder than normal in 6-10 day period, but breaking down by 8-14 day period.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
I tetched mine off too.
Kevin, why has the NWS issued a freeze watch for “us” for Saturday morning already? I would think this would be issued sometime on Friday.
Had to limit the time away from home to no more than 6 hours, Michael H., otherwise your area would have gotten a visit from me. But I wonder how wet the courses would have been, also. Anyway, the point is moot now. Besides, I got to watch some of the Masters Goof.
wd, I sometimes imagine how funny it would be to have the announcers cover the awarding of the green jacket on late Sunday at Augusta, using your slight change to the word. “And here is the 2012 Masters Goof champion ….. ”
And …. “The eventual champ played brilliant goof coming down the stretch …”
Rick: It’s because their confidence is high in cold temperatures by Saturday morning, and they want to get as much early notice as possible to farmers and gardeners, considering just how much is running well ahead of schedule.
I would expect some of the watch turns into a freeze warning (your part, certainly) and some of it turns into a frost advisory. The three counties left out — Franklin, Henry and Patrick — will probably end up under a frost advisory, too.
So far today, the gauge shows 0.26″. Looking at the puddles, that seems close. A good ole soaking type of rain with zero run-off. That small amount probably equals 1/2″ to 3/4″ of hard rain, tho that’s just one of my guesses
I’ve got about 1/3rd inch in my guage.
WDBJ7 thinks it will become sunny at some point (probably late morning or noon) here tomorrow, and so does the NWS. Maybe. But sometimes these east wind – low cloud things get reluctant to leave this nice valley. If the latter occurs, Roanoke valleyites might see temps well below 60 for much of the day tomorrow, maybe even all day. NWS and “7″ are both forecasting mostly sunny, high of 64. NWS is forecasting a wind shift to north.
Kevin, your comment at 11:27 AM has me concerned. I would really appreciate it if two of the three days of next weekend were nice. Again, most of you can guess why.
Jury remains out on whether it will rain that weekend. I’m leaning against any kind of big storm system.
Plan to post anew sometime on Friday AM. Expecting freeze watches to become freeze warnings/frost advisories.
Well…here in Hardy we never did get soaking rain…mostly mist with some heavier showers amounting to one hundreth of an inch…I’ll be watering today because I can’t cover my whole yard and I don’t want my plants to go into a frost water stressed…there is going to be a lot of crop/vegetation loss with this cold snap. Too many plants were tricked into leafing out/flowering early. And the cold can have all the mosquitoes it wants but leave the pollinators for any sort of crop that can be saved…
45* here, and the visibility is already many more miles than late yesterday. Full “Pink” moon a little after 3 PM today, followed by Kevin on the radio at 4:30 (unless the time got changed) today.
Today’s highs and lows may be fairly close to normal.
Good blog entry with some links on dealing with frost in the garden here:http://awaytogarden.com/17-degrees-coping-with-spring-frost-in-a-garden
Betsy – enjoyed your link about protecting from frost etc. We wash the frost off of the plants in the garden. For my flowers, we do what the article said. I am in the process today of finding “containers” and things to cover everything for tonight and maybe on into next week.
But first – wdbrand – we are topping off the indoor wood pile for the upcoming week. Brrr!
Just posted new blog entry — but re-posted Betsy’s link in the comments and welcome any others there about how to protect plants during frost/freeze situations.