No tornado outbreak like a year ago, just a flip-flopping front that might cause weekend showers
Friday marks the anniversary of the peak day of the 2011 Super Outbreak, when 316 people were killed in tornadoes across the South and East, the fourth deadliest day of tornadoes in U.S. history. Glade Spring, Virginia, on Interstate 81 south between Wytheville and Abingdon was hard hit by an EF-3 tornado during that outbreak, and the scars haven’t entirely healed a year later. One way to recall that terrible week is to look back on Weather Journal entries in late April 2011, many of which deal with the severe weather outbreak, as it was happening and in the immediate aftermath.
Thankfully, we do not have anything that ballistic to deal with this year. We do have a flip-flopping front that will move north and south like a jump rope the next several days. It lifted north as a warm front late Wednesday and early Thursday, helping trigger the round of showers and storms we saw, in association with an upper-level impulse sliding east-southeastward. (Linked here: A list of regional rain totals, through 9 p.m. Thursday.) That will push it south for Friday, which means a dry day is likely. But a new disturbance approaching Saturday could lead to another round of showers and storms across much of our region. There will be some potential for heavy rain and/or strong storms, depending on how the pieces come together, and when they do. Timing, placement and intensity of each new round of showers and storms resulting from upper-level disturbances interacting with this back-and-forth frontal boundary are difficult to forecast until just a few hours before each new event. Saturday is not likely to be a total washout for most people, but it’s also unlikely to be totally dry. Something in between is the most likely outcome for those planning outdoor activities. (As of Thursday evening, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is leaning more to the dry side for our immediate region.) Sunday may also have some showers and storms before the front slides back to the south. It will come north yet again in the early to middle part of the coming week, but appears likely to eventually push far enough northward that a warmer and drier weather regime will take hold, with several days topping 80 next week as we move into May.
April 26, 2012 - 9:38 PM
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Thanks for posting the link to the (Iowa) list of rainfall totals here in SW Virginia, Kev. Looks like Rick got bombed again down in Wytheville. If the rain holds off on Sunday, I won’t have to worry about Draper Valley being too dry …. more likely the opposite.
Tazewell and Bland also had some big rainfall numbers, along with Alleghany County. Too bad highlander won’t check in … I wonder how much he got …
NEXRAD radar shows a string of storms lined up west to east down by Michael Hoback. One or two of them are displaying intensity (bright orange and perhaps even a bit of red) on the screen.
The Iowa Environmental Mesonet site has an extensive database of National Weather Service statements of all kinds. I link to it because (1) I get a feed from it on Twitter to alert me to new statemetns/advisories/warnings and (2) you can link to a specific statement, while if you do so through the weather service site, what you link to may get updated by something unrelated. I’d rather link that print a list on the blog entry, because the latter makes it enormously long with text.
Here’s a database that can be used to look up old warnings.
http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/search.php
El Senor Hoback, I don’t know how quickly kevin will post this, but batten down the hatches!! A fairly intense t-storm is heading straight for you, at least if you live where I think you do. Eastern end of Washington County, just north of I-81 a few miles. Because there is a bit of a time delay in those radar returns, it may already be on top of you.
Well, if Michael H. went to bed, he has probably been awakened. That storm bloomed once it reached his county, and I think it just whacked Glade Spring. I cannot see any purple in among the red, but it is still a strong t-storm, I bet.
Kev, thanks for posting the 10:47 comment so promptly.
SML level at 5:05 AM 4/27/2012.
Full pond= 795.00′
Dam overflow= 802.00′
Current= 793.06′
Rising at 0.04′ per hour.
We picked up 1.62″ of total rainfall, a very healthy total. The grass will definitely need a mowing in a couple days.
My garden is LOVING all the rain we have gotten. My lettuce is finally starting to come up in the hot bed and my onions appear to be ready to take off now. The tomato plants are flourishing inside currently.
Kevin, at this point, is there any way to predict how dry this summer will be?
Nurse: You know how accurate all those winter predictions in October turn out to be? That’s about what guessing the summer is like now.
Climate Prediction Center is leaning warmer than normal in temperature with no clear trend with precipitation.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2
Yes, Nurse no longer dry garden – the garden is loving the rain. I am expecting that when the temps start warming up that everything will take off. Yes, Other John – that includes the lawns and yards.
Kevin – when is it that we hear about the upcoming hurricane season projections?
Carol: There are already a few out there. National Hurricane Center usually doesn’t issue until mid-late May.
The Colorado State University team of Bill Gray and Philip Klotzbach has issued theirs, going for 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes — a light season, owing to anomalously cool sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and the prospects of a developing El Nino in Pacific, which tends to cut down on tropical activity in the Atlantic.
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2012/apr2012/apr2012.pdf
In an unrelated tropical note — today is the 24th consecutive day without any tropical cyclones in any ocean basins worldwide, the second longest such streak in the past 20 years.
Today is/was an absolutely gorgeous spring day. I was riding today (of course!), but if I was a bit younger and a lot healthier, I would have preferred to be on my old mail route. It was about 75 to 80% walking with a big break in the middle that included some mounted boxes and some “jumps,” meaning we park the truck, set the emergency brake, curb wheels, then hop out and deliver to one addressee (often a business).
Humidity levels have dropped like a rock. Brent Watts of “7″ just highlighted one home town (I missed which one) that has 25% humidity.
Nurse Shanon Moist Garden, congrats on your major improvement in your yard. I sent Mick Jagger over there to take care of you. He is singing, “….But if you try sometimes …. you just might find ……. you get what you need ….!!”
Being north of the flip-flopping front (or “waggling” front, as I said on WVTF today) has its advantages, Doug. That same drier air in place may hold off a lot of the showers Saturday, and by Saturday night, it may be similar to last night with stronger storms to the west crossing the mountains and weakening.
A numerical comparison of 1974 and 2011 Super Outbreaks. Some factors still lean toward 1974 being worse.
http://www.ustornadoes.com/2012/04/27/a-numerical-comparison-of-the-1974-and-2011-super-outbreaks/
Both of these outbreaks produced killer tornadoes in Washington County, with 1974 near Saltville. The 1974 outbreak also produced the sunrise EF-2 tornado that cut a path from Salem across NW Roanoke to northern Roanoke County. Today, it would have done multi-millions in damage near Valley View Mall.
Today’s multi-day CPC forecasts. 6-10 day, May 3-7. An enormous bubble of warmer than normal air covers much of the lower 48, and is centered in eastern Colorado. All of our blogging area is in the 33% chance of being warm. Precip? The neutral zone, white. Illinois, IND., KY, OHIO, and a slice of western WV are supposed to be wet, while eastern NC and Virginia and points NE of there are supposed to be dry.
The 8-14 day, May 5-11. A big change, we have a 33% chance of being cooler than normal, while PA, MD, Northern VA and everything NE of there are in the 40% zone. Precip outlook: Neutral, white, but just barely. A large chunk of Virginia east and NE of Lexington (?) has a 33% chance of being drier than normal.
Yes it was a gorgeous day here in far SW VA. I worked all day planting trees as part of a United Way event. It was a sad but hopeful day as people we worked for told us what had happend to them but also told us what good things had come from the tornado tragedy. What a difference a year makes.
Kevin you did a good job on the radio. I enjoy your segment when I can catch it. Maybe you need to move from print to radio and even on the TV with your knowledge.