Summer-winter battle continues, but may allow a few actual springlike days later this week
If the clouds clear out overnight, temperatures may fall to near-freezing levels in parts of our region generally along and west of the Blue Ridge. That’s why the National Weather Service in Blacksburg put out a freeze warning. At this writing near midnight, it’s still hanging in the 40s most places, with low 50s at Roanoke, warmer than it was most of Monday. For the past few weeks, we’ve been in the middle of a battle royale between 
winter and summer, as we bounce back and forth between June-like temperatures and January-like setups such as this week’s major Eastern U.S. storm system. (A couple of links for more information on that: The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center’s running storm summary, and a lengthy blog item from The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang). The overall pattern appears likely to shift back to warm and dry over the next 1-2 weeks or so. In between, we may have some days that are actually fairly seasonal, with highs in the 60s and 70s across the region and lows in the 40s, starting Wednesdsay. We’ll have a series of frontal passages, both warm fronts and cold fronts, in the latter half of the week into the weekend, and these will produce a chance of showers and storms at times. Timing is a bit uncertain on these fronts and will need to be fine-tuned closer to time of arrival, but it does appear a warm front in the vicinity on Thursday will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Between now and then, dry weather will prevail. Tuesday will be relatively chilly, with highs in the 50s to low 60s, and Wednesday morning may again be near freezing in some areas with a better chance of frost as winds diminish.
April 24, 2012 - 12:16 AM
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40 steady degrees here with not a ghost of a chance of a freeze or frost, because it is pretty breezy. Same must be true for the floor of the Roanoke valley. There must be a wind out of the west or WNW down there. Why? Because it is 41 degrees at RRA a few minutes ago, meanwhile it was 30 at both Danville and Martinsville. RRA was BY FAR the warmest location among the 15 or so locations shown by WDBJ7. An early morning wind out of the west causes that situation, with warm air being blown down Brushy Mountain.
Meanwhile, that strange visitor from another part of our solar system, the sun, is up and shining strongly. That might increase the chances that today will be windy, which is primarily because we are in between the huge low that is exiting stage NE and a big high to our west.
Trivia: Roanoke attains 13 and a half hours of daylight today. I think it is also true for Blacksburg. Ok, Rick, tell us how cold it got at King’s Weather Station in the Wytheville area ….
Up here on the ridge – 31 F and a slight breeze this morning at 6:30 am.
I must confess to a brain-slip in a comment on an earlier thread. Roanoke’s April average temperature will NOT fall below the March average this week. My math was fine, I just momentarily thought 58.4 was our March average, when it was actually 57.4. The April average temp is 58.3 through Monday, and will probably slip a bit by tomorrow morning. But it will not go as far down as 57.4 April should finish safely above March, so this will not be the first April cooler than the previous March.
Not sure how cold it was at the Chapel this moring but wind was still blowing and no frost. It was somewhere in the low 30′s. Was 34 when I got to Abingdon. The woodstove has been cranking ever since Sunday afternoon and will be fed until tomorrow. They are saying we have a chance of rain, possible storms and small hail today. Seems that looming warm front is just to out southwest and headed this way. That should keep tonight frost fee.
Wow…updated forecast just threw me for a loop. Was looking at perfect golfing conditions for Sunday, now there’s a 40% chance of showers…grrrr. 61.1 and 37.2 for max/min today in Goodview.
I decided to look at the big 4 of predictive websites, so to speak. The CPC 6-10 (we are forecasted to be normal –white area — for temps and 40% chance of being drier than normal) and 8-14 day forecasts (we are 33% or 40% (west of ROA) likely to be warmer than normal and again 40% likely to be dry). Also the NAO GFS outlooks, with a disagreement of sorts between the 10-day outlook, which switches from negative to positive before May 1 and the 14-day, which has the NAO remaining negative until May 4th or 5th. Any way one slices it, if the NAO still has an effect on Virginia temps this time of year, the 2nd week of May (5-6-12) looks to be a warm one.
And finally the AO or Arctic Oscillation. Very positive on both the 10-day and 14-day GFS AO Outlooks starting about May 1. If these trends continue into the middle of May, Mother’s Day on 5-13-12 could be up into the 80s in some communities.
One of the most interesting statistics I ran across today, considering the 2011 Super Outbreak anniversary we’re coming up on, is the number of tornadoes Alabama has experienced so far this April: ZERO. And it looks like the month may well end that way, too.
Brian: Take any percentages of precip with a grain of salt right now through the weekend. We have a series of upper-air disturbances from the northwest and a flip-flopping front the rest of the week. It’s safe to say there will be periods of showers and storms, but difficult to time exactly when until just 12-24 hours beforehand.
Mr. Griggs, if you go to wunderground and type in Wytheville Va. in the search bar at the top, the weather for that location will come up. Then scroll down til you see PWS’s show. Kings is normally the first one listed.
Doug: Kings only got down to 34.4. I had 35 and that’s about what I expect tonight as well.
Kevin: Do we still have a legitimate chance to have a warmer April than March?
Duh, I must be tired………..
Kevin, I meant…..Do we have a chance to have a colder April than March?
Senior moment, over and out.
41 F currently with a light breeze on the ridge tonight at 9:30 pm. What a difference from last night – thank goodness.
Based on Roanoke, April will almost certainly average warmer than March, but by less than 2 degrees. Previous closest margin is 1 degree.
Plan to update blog again sometime on Wednesday as the chance of rain and storms for overnight into Thursday comes into better focus.
Sometimes I go for weeks and the weather gods treat me great. The rainy days are days when I am delivering riding routes, or the rain falls at night. And Sundays and my non-scheduled day and days that I deliver walking routes are dry. At other times the opposite happens. I am in the latter category recently. The one workday this week that I walk is …. Thursday. Couldn’t goof on either Sunday or Monday, and got rained on last Wednesday and late in the workday on Saturday on walking routes. And I too would like to have dry conditions on Sunday, just like Brian.
Mick Jagger is taunting us, Brian. “You can’t always get what you want …..” ; hang in there. Pretty soon things will flip and we will start lucking out. Trouble is, it could be because of start to a drought ….
I logged onto King’s website, and you were right (of course), wd. Had quite a bit of info, including the high (54.5 F at 5:28 PM) and the low of 34.4 (at 7:05 AM) that Rick mentioned. They might have a frost there early tomorrow …. already down to 36.8 F.
Rained off and on all night at the Chapel. Was cool this am in the low 40′s. Local weather is saying repeated complex of shower and storms will drop along the warm front into our area.
Kevin…your main entry today..
Meterology???” Ouch!
Joe: Thanks for pointing that out. I sent a request for a copy-editing fix to online editors. I didn’t write the headline, but I’ve worked the copy desk for the years and have fumbled enough things myself to know these things just happen sometimes.
What Joe refers to is today’s Weather Journal column that reveals the winner of the snowfall prediction contest (and hopefully will have meteorology spelled correctly before you click on it).
http://www.roanoke.com/weather/wb/307940
Congrats to the young man who won the snow prediction contest! So awesome to see younger kids taking interest!
Regrettably, the error also made it into the print version. It’s embarrassing, but it happens sometimes.
A High Five to Casey P. for winning the snow prediction contest. Maybe he will follow in Kevin’s footsteps.
Joe – is that Joe in Texas? If so glad to hear from you. Did you survive the all of the storms etc. down there? I have been wondering about you.
Thanks Carol…and Kevin..
Yes Thanx..Several twisters came close..
had to evac work for about 45 minutes
with flights arriving,,very uncomfortable
not being able to contact flights.
Very unsettling.
Ill take the rain though…wet soil keeps us from
baking over 100 ..so ill take that.
From 607ft on the stinky fork of the Trinity,,
Joe