Sunny, warm Sunday for SW Virginia as severe outbreak continues in central U.S.
While it is a sunny, warm day for us on Sunday, with highs that will reach the upper 70s to mid 80s over much of Southwest Virginia, it will be a day of damage assessment, cleanup and perhaps even more taking shelter in the central U.S. There were more than 100 reports of tornadoes on Saturday, with more severe weather expected overnight into Sunday. About 75 percent of the town of Thurman, Iowa, population 250, was destroyed, a hospital was hit in Creston, Iowa, and perhaps most ominously, a large tornado cut a swath into the southern and eastern parts of the metro area of Wichita, Kan., just before midnight Eastern time. The full extent of damage and casualties is not known as I type this just after midnight, but it appears to be substantial based on some early reports trickling out. You can follow the latest news reports from The Associated Press, linked here.
The storm system causing the mayhem in the central U.S. now will affect us by midweek — perhaps as early as Tuesday, more likely Wednesday. The stronger upper-air dynamics with the storm are likely to lift northeastward, staying well to our north and west, but the counterclockwise circulation of a low-pressure system will continue to drag warmth (highs in the 80s Monday, maybe Tuesday) and, finally, some Gulf of Mexico moisture northward. That will be a mixed blessing for fighting the ongoing Easter Complex of wildfires in the mountains of western Virginia — warmer temperatures and perhaps some breeziness will not be good for fighting the fires, but increasing humidity, and perhaps some rain at midweek, will be. Forecasts have shifted back and forth on how much rain will fall. With the main dynamics of the storm staying away from us, we are not expected to have anything close to the severe outbreak the central U.S. is having (though some strong storms will be possible as a cold front cuts into warm, relatively moist air), but we also may not get much rain. The current Hydrometeorological Prediction Center 5-day rainfall projection map is for generally less than a half-inch across our region – down significantly from up to an inch on an earlier map. Our developing dryness would not be quelled much if that comes to pass.
April 15, 2012 - 12:30 AM
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Kevin, my understanding is that high risk warnings for these tornadoes were going out more than 24 hours in advance. That’s rare, right?
Outlooks and advisories noting the potential for violent tornadoes were issued 1-2 days in advance. Specific warnings for tornadoes in local areas were issued as needed several minutes to an hour in advance based on radar and sightings. The warnings contained new wording to more ominously describe possible impacts.
Like the early March outbreak in the Ohio Valley it was obvious days in advance this would be a high end setup for severe weather. Forecasters are getting really good at projecting those days ahead of time.
Woodward, Okla., appears to have taken the biggest hit. An early morning tornado there killed at least 5 people.
Kevin, they said they had no warning since lightning had knocked out their early warning siren, or so I read,
WD: I have read that about Woodward, though there is some mixed information. Weather service officials advise never relying on sirens for that reason, recommending NOAA weather radio with alert tone instead.
All that said, a siren would have alerted folks. I’m sure some don’t have a weather radio but I find that hard to believe since they are in the crosshairs most of the time.
Here in Greene, we are still waiting for our first rain in almost a month! Seems strange to look at the discolored grass and lack of water supply and realize its only April. Conditions harken more like July or August. Kevin, do you see this developing into the severity that Texas was going through last year?
TWC issued a forecast map early this morning (about 6:30 EDT) that I thought was stunning. It showed a truly enormous area in red (highest probability of severe weather, which of course includes tornadoes) that stretched from the Michigan and Wisconsin borders with Canada ALL THE WAY to the Rio Grande, the Texas-Mexico border. Probably averaged 300 miles wide, too. Central Wisconsin, Iowa, and eastern Oklahoma (I think, about the last one) were three areas that were specifically mentioned as areas of concern. The 3rd one might have been southern Missouri or the northern edge of Arkansas instead. The area included many, many other states.
Quick note about temps in our area early this morning …. they were all over the place. At a little after 6, it was 54.5* here, 55 or so at RRA, 52 in Hillsville, 47 at Draper, but as Rick knows so well, King’s Weather Station in the Wytheville area was about 38 or 39!! I wonder if they dip their thermometer in a bucket of ice for a few seconds about 6 AM ….. :>) :>)
RATS!!! Looks like the HPC forecast is coming into agreement with the weather guy in C-ville, unfortunately for all of us …… I have to walk for just about all of Wednesday afternoon, and even though I really don’t like delivering mail on a walking route in the rain, I would be happy about doing it on WED if it meant we would be getting a soaker.
Doug, got your call at the club, but message got erased before I could take any info down. Its 85 up here now and I can feel this wind zapping our water supply as I type!
And what a difference a week “will” make. The NWS has Wytheville doing a high of 49 next Sunday.
Chaulk one up for all the forecasters. They’ve nailed the last several days. Course, there’s been no fronts or systems to throw a curve at them either. This is for D. Carol. I’m considering planting some cuke and squash seeds tomorrow, against my rule of first week of May. If they make it, I’ll have a three week jump on the table fare. If not, I’m no worse for the wear. Maters and peppers will have to wait tho. I don’t trust anybodys forecast that good.
Better make that a 1-1/2 week jump on the table fare. Ground temps aren’t warm enough yet to let the seeds jump outta da ground.
Hope everyone enjoyed today, as Blacksburg will not see a day this warm again in the month of April (although, Monday will be close, but probably a degree or two cooler than today). Big time cold for April arrives one week from today. Look for more freezes the week after, which is normal in the NRV anyways in late April.
For any of you who may care, there is a big disagreement between the two sets of outlooks listed under the CPC’s NAO website. The GFS NAO outlooks page shows the NAO remaining in positive territory throughout the 14-day period, except for the last two days of the 14-day outlook. But the ensemble page with its spaghetti strands of model outlooks shows many of them going negative before that, some as soon as 7 or 8 days. Whatever, it looks like the last day of April and the beginning days of May are unlikely to be hot.
The fire danger notwithstanding, these first two weeks of April have been a welcome change with the dry weather. After running 1.58″ above normal rainfall the past six months (October 1 – March 31) in Blacksburg, things have finally had a chance to dry out. The swampy areas in the yard are dry for the first time quite a while. Was actually able to mow, without sinking into the muck.
I noticed the cold surge on some of the models a couple of days ago, and was waiting to see if that solidified. Judging by a couple of comments on here, perhaps it has. I’ll take a closer look at that later.
A cold surge next week, huh? Hmmmm. We are going to plant our broccoli and cabbage this week. I guess they will be able to withstand the cool spell.
wdbrand – no cukes and squash up here – still too cool for us. With this impending cool snap – might need to bring in wood and fill up the wood rack – just in case.
Blacksburg Mike, I am glad that you have received the dry spell you wanted. Perhaps Michael Hoback down in the Blackwell Chapel area of eastern Washington County and maybe a few other bloggers here feel the same about the recent dry weather. But the vast majority of folks in the other 75% of Virginia NE and East of us feel the opposite, I am sure. I also feel the opposite from you myself, for the Roanoke area. But I am also grateful that based on what I saw during Friday and Saturday, we are in much better shape here than where I was.
As each passing week goes by, I feel more and more pessimistic …. we are heading for a drought, and we need help from rain gods, Mother Nature, Kevin, Mick Jagger, whoever or whatever.
I am surprised that Kevin did not put in a comment with a link to the CPC outlooks for 6-10 days and 8-14 …. maybe he is planning on doing that later this evening. Kevin, please delete this comment if you are.
Sure enough, the 6-10 day outlook which was generated by computers only DOES show most of the eastern half of the nation cooler than normal. We are in the 40% chance medium blue area. The link, possibly first of 3 attempts: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php More on the 8-14 day outlook in separate comment.
For anyone interested, here is a collection of tornado videos from Saturday (loads a little slow on some computers)
http://www.ustornadoes.com/2012/04/14/videos-from-the-april-13-april-14-and-april-15-2012-tornado-outbreak-sequence/
The 8-14 day map, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php , shows us with a 33% chance of being warmer than normal, with far SW Virginia (from roughly Bristol westward?) being in the 40% zone. Also, the 6-10 day map has us on the edge of 33% chance of being dry and normal (ROA east seems to be normal), while the 8-14 day outlook has us very likely to be dry. The dark brown 50% chance. Here is my take on that last forecast … BOOOOOOOO!
Doug: CPC maps me would seem to suggest cool weather in the East in the 6-10-day period, but warming up toward the 10-14 day period. Remember that the maps are meant to reflect the probabilities for warm or cool weather relative to normal over the entirety of the period. So cooler than normal weather for days 6-9 but warmer for day 10 would average cool for a 6-10 day period, but then cool weather for days 8-9 and warm for 10-14 would average warm for the 8-14-day cycle. The 2 maps overlap on 3 days, 8-9-10.
I haven’t investigated all the particulars of this particular situation, so I don’t know if that’s certainly the case, but it could explain it.
Kevin, thanks for the link to the tornado videos. I just watched most of the top one. For those of you who have never had the pleasure to meet Kevin, I thought the guy’s voice in the topmost video (Steve Bottkol?) sounds EXACTLY like Kevin. For a few seconds I wondered how Kevin got out to Norman Oklahoma this weekend.
Just watched the 4th tornado video, and you can hear the voices of 3-4 guys laughing, joking around, saying, “I think it’s headed this way ….” DER!! When it comes to tornadoes, count me in as a devout coward. I would be screaming, “WHERE’S THE NEAREST STORM CELLAR OR BASEMENT?!?!”
All of the models I’ve looked at show a significant push of cooler air by the weekend and early next week. The 12Z Euro was most aggressive. The 500 mb map for Monday is below. All you need to know is that the blue colors represent cold air.
http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/files/2012/04/Euro12Z500mbMonAM0415.gif
Uh, Kevin-Me-Boy, your link did not work in your most recent comment. I got an error message “404 file not found” Welcome to my club! And my “BOOOOO!” was directed at the drier than normal outlook for the 8-14 day, not the temp maps.
Link fixed both in original commet (10:13 p.m.) and below:
http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/files/2012/04/Euro12Z500mbMonAM0415.gif