We go from rain/storms Saturday afternoon, to soggy Sunday, to possible snowflakes by Monday
National Weather Service-Blacksburg radar linked here
There has been lots of interest for days in the timing of potential rainfall on Saturday, with the morning Blue Ridge Marathon in Roanoke and a host of related downtown activities (including evening bicycle races), the annual Blue Ridge Kite Festival at Green Hill Park outside Salem and the 4 p.m. Virginia Tech Hokies spring football game. It seems the third Saturday in April is often packed with popular activities like this – I certainly remember April 16 last year with the marathon, kite festival, motorcycle festival (which happened last week this year) and April 16 memorial activities at Tech — all hampered by morning downpours that gave way suddenly to mid/late afternoon dryness while eastern Virginia and the Carolinas suffered a tornado outbreak. This week’s packed April Saturday appears likely to have the reverse timing of a year ago — dry in the morning, giving way to rain and possibly storms by mid to late afternoon as a cold front pushes into what will be a rather warm and sticky day (highs mostly in the 70s, maybe a few low 80s, and dew points in the 50s). The National Weather Service provides a handy tool for hourly forecasts, linked here for Blacksburg and here for Roanoke. As of shortly after midnight on this Saturday morning, they’re showing a chance of showers picking up about 1 p.m. at Blacksburg and 2 p.m. at Roanoke. The latest simulated radar for 2 p.m. on the North American Model seems to agree with this timing. The most important thing to watch, though, will be actual National Weather Service-Blacksburg radar linked at the top of the page (and again, right here).
Saturday’s showers and storms begin about a 3-day period in which Eastern U.S. weather will make an interesting circuit, thanks to this powerhouse coastal low-pressure system that will be wrapping up on the coast. For our region, there is some threat of strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon as the cold front bumps into warm, moist air — not all the ingredients are there for a big severe outbreak, but some strong wind gusts or hail may occur in some storms, especially Roanoke and eastward. Then comes rain overnight Saturday into Sunday as the 
low develops and moves up the coast — projections of 1 to 1.75 inches common across Southwest Virginia. Then, as the low tightens off the coast and gets pulled inland by the jet stream trough digging far southward in the Eastern U.S., it will start pulling cold air from Canada southward through the Applachians by Sunday night and especially into Monday and Tuesday. Just to the west of the low, over parts of Pennsylvania and West Virginia, there may be some heavy, wet snow measuring several inches. In many of those areas, it could be similar to the late October storm that knocked out power and damaged leafed-out trees, in this case budding and greening early because of the excessively warm March that occurred. For Southwest Virginia, don’t rule out some snowflakes getting swirled in by strong northwest winds as early as Sunday night or perhaps early Monday or Monday night, especially in higher elevations west of Roanoke. Snow in April is not all that unusual at 3,000-plus elevations in the Appalachians — it’s a little odd to see it anywhere lower than that, but not unprecedented, as there appears to have been a snow shower event across the region, even into Roanoke, on May 7, 1989. (Heavy snows in the New River Valley on April 26-27, 1978, too — follow the last comments on the last thread to see the discussion about these). But it does appear this odd winter/spring season is about to throw us another curve ball, as we go from possibly 80 with strong storms Saturday afternoon to a few snowflakes in some areas within 48 hours.
April 21, 2012 - 12:31 AM
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Mornin’ Bloggers – Yes – April 26, 1978, my son celebrated his 1st birthday and we had about 10 inches of snow in downtown Christiansburg. We had planted our garden and our peas were up and had pea pods and they were covered up with snow. The snow did not stay around very long.
Hope everyone gets their Saturday activities in and around the rain today. Off to the American Cancer Society’s Bark for Life in Floyd.
Ray’s weather center is touting snow accumulations above 4,000′ in NW NC, so apparently the snow now looks to be a little farther south. The jackpot however still looks to be righ near Canaan Valley, WV where 6″ is a good bet. Also, temps for Sunday night and Monday are trending colder on latest runs. I would bet the high temp Monday in Blacksburg does not get above 41 degrees (current NWS forecast has it at 49). This is gonna be fun!
Glad to see Greene in the 1.75 – 2 inch range, we really need it! I will never forget that snow in May, that was just freaky. To bad it was on a weekend, or maybe school would have been canceled, at least I think it was on a weekend. It came down hard and quick, but by that afternoon it was just a memory. Anyhow, hope we can keep the rain coming after this one because you never know what summer might bring!
The NAM has backed off quite a bit on the snow totals for the Elkins and Snowshoe area.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=FCX
HM’s latest accumulation map has a coating to 3″ in Giles County. Time for snow is 2am Monday through 2am Tuesday. I think at least Mtn. Lake will be whitened, and flakes certainly will be flying in most of the NRV.
HPC has pulled back just a bit on rainfall amounts through Tuesday morning, mainly 1/2 to 1 inch.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif
SPC has only a “See Text” advisory on severe weather today — instability will be marginal, with a few localized wind gusts as the main threat
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_wind.gif
HPC still has slight-risk 4-plus inches of snow for eastern West Virginia, nudging the Virginia border in Highland and Bath counties, for the 24-hour cycles ending Monday AM and Tuesday AM.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif
As Jared notes from his May 1989 memory, a typical pattern especially for lower elevations (sub 3,000 feet, we’ll call that here) in a late April/early May snow event is that snow falls nights and mornings more than afternoons/early evenings. Often it even changes to rain showers in the afternoons. The sun angle is often just can a little too much to overcome for surface warming (even on a cloudy day) in the afternoon this late in the season unless there is an enormous amount of cold air advection. Higher elevations, of course, stay colder easier.
Just finished looking at the GOES infrared satellite. SO…the tropical looking thing in the Gulf of Mexico is supposed to phase with the thing coming out of the midwest after the cold front goes through? In summary, we have a chance of storms this afternoon from the heating of the day/cold front lifting? After that, our amount of rain (or mountain snow)depends on where the two disturbances phase.. or fail to? Just trying my hand at what I learn on this forum.
That’s the general idea, Matt.
Showers moving across Bent Mt. and thru here on da Knob. Just came from Greenhill Kite Festival 1:45 PM and across the Knob and there are a lotta folks that are going to get wet there.
The sun is out here in Hokieburg! Will it last long? Is Sunday just a wash? My student group has filming to do outdoors in the morning and forecast doesn’t look good. May 7, 1989 must have been when it snowed at VT commencement. At least dry and warm-ish at VT’s Relay for Life last night. I was out there at midnight comfortable in my Relay T-shirt.
Thanks Kevin.. looks like the low had better make the turn to the north pretty soon or we’re going to miss a lot of the precip.
Lots of rumbles to my south here in C’burg. Radar indicates that we’re about to get a heavy thunderstorm. I’m glad I’m not headed into Lane Stadium right now.
Bumping and rolling here in Hokieburg, just in time for spring game. Rain has now started. Thunder started about 3:35.
Inch and a half since this morning with 3/4 inch from the last ten minutes! Water is ponding (or rather laking) all around the house.
It will make pulling weeds easier if I can get to it tomorrow.
“0.53″ inches so far this afternoon. Currently 52 F outside. Last batch of rain was to have a chance of winds and hail but no hail here. Wind with the cell though.
Winter storm watches are now out from late Sunday night through Monday night for Snowshoe, Elkins and points northward into western Pennsylvania.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rlx/
Looks like we may have a hiatus in the rain for a few hours — already started in New River Valley, back edge of rain band about to move through Roanoke next 15-20 minutes. That’ll let these bike races get going outside the Roanoke Times office downtown. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech already blew the whistle on the Hokies’ spring game about 45 minutes before the rain stopped.
18Z GFS is very aggressive bringing colder air into Virginia behind the low, while there is thick moisture still wrapping in. It’s an outlier, as other recent runs of the NAM and GFS and Euro are not showing that. Lots of folks would see flakes with more accumulation than projected in the higher elevations of western Virginia, mostly west of I-81/north of I-64, IF it were to verify. Thought I would mention it before a snow fan brings it up.
HPC’s slight risk of 4-plus inches of snow now licks right into the western edge of Giles, Craig and Alleghany counties … with the moderate risk getting a little bit into Bath and Highland counties.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif
Slight risk 8-plus inches also cuts into a little of western Virginia near Hot Springs north into Highland County.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_08.gif
I just watched Jay Webb on WDBJ7, and the rain tomorrow appeared to be much more likely and heavier from Salem east and NE. Blacksburg and Christiansburg may not get all that much during the daytime hours tomorrow, from what it appeared to me. Wytheville even drier.
Calling Michael Hoback, calling Michael Hoback …. what has been happening down your way? Ditto for you, Rick.
I know, I know ….. that nasty 4-letter word, SNOW (the bane of my existence 28 to 26 months ago!!) ….. is being tossed around, so everything else takes a distant back seat (like at the rear of a school bus) with some of you. Go ahead, yak it up everyone. I am off on Monday, which is a good news/bad news type of thing. Good that I will not have to deliver a walking route on that very cool, showery day, but the bad news is that “goof” is OOTQ locally for me.
Hey Doug and all, we had a sprinkle this morning and a hard shower after lunch. Only got .30″ of rain. Been cloudy and dreary since and more light showers to our west. Our local forecast is for showers tonight through Monday and some discussion of a mix or changeover to snow Sunday Night into Monday but no accumulation expected here. I knew Winter was not done. I am ready for warm sunshine. Guess I will be building a fire tomorrow.
Thanks for checking in, MH. How is the wetness of your ground? Good? How much rain did you get on Wednesday? I got doused with 1.5 inches 3 days ago, so things are looking great in our neighborhood. I think we are pushing a 1/2 inch here from today’s stuff.
Gosh, how I love it when things are deep green. I am STILL recovering psychologically from my trip to Front Royal and Winchester last weekend. That scared the daylights out of me.
12Z NAM snowfall map from earlier today: 18-plus inches Elkins, WVa, 2 inches for Blacksburg, 1 inch into some of Roanoke Valley.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=FCX
18Z NAM was also a little more aggressive bringing snow into areas west of Roanoke.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=FCX
Interested to see the 18Z GFS snow “clown” map when it comes out, as the run seemed to bring more snow into our area than any I’ve seen since the Euro “Piedmont snowstorm” runs a few days ago.
Even beyond the usual problems with these maps, they’re likely overplaying snow totals because of presuming a 10:1 ratio and everything sticking, when neither would occur.
As will I Michael Hoback. And as D. Carol will also, I suspect. And I bet the CEO of Griggs,Oakey and Co, Inc. wished he had a wood stove to warm his wet, cold, aching feet by after slogging thru 4″ of super wet, heavy, melting snow Tuesday evening. All the stove needs is a match. Well, maybe a pot of taters chunked up and really to boil. Temp has steadly dropped all evening and currently raining a pretty good shower. 56.9*. And it feels it too.
Nothing more than a sprinkle down my way today.
We had .80 earlier in the week and .30 today so the total was just 1.10. We are green, green, and green. Grass has slowed down some but that may be more from the cold and the drier weather we had. The freeze took a great toll on our flowers. Our hygrangeo and our one crepe myrtle lost all of their leaves. Our japenese maple and azaleas were cut back also. I have two little azaleas that are beginning to bloom but the others lost their buds. The ones that suprised me were the french lilacs. They were budded but made it through and are blooming now. Hostas were a 50/50 situation. About half were damaged and the others were fine depending on where they were located.
Now to the snow. One time back in the 80′s we had a major deep snow in April but I cannot remember the date. I somewhat doubt any accumulation here this time but stranger things have happened. Is the storm beginning to wrap up tightly now?
Michael, you’re probably remember April 3-4, 1987. Roanoke got 6 inches out of that, Wytheville had 10 inches, and there were many 12-plus reports west of I-77.
It was another strong, wrapped-up low moving northeast out of the Gulf. Really, that’s about the only way you can get heavy snow in April around here — Arctic air can’t park long enough and deep enough for overrunning setups like they can in midwinter. You’ve got to have a mechanism that can supply strong cold air advection, dynamic cooling and rich moisture all at once, and that just about always means a well-phased Gulf to East Coast low.
So far we are up to “0.56″ inches and earlier it was down to 51 F. Yes, wdbrand – I have struck the match. Too much of a damp chill in the air. Potato soup is on the menu for tomorrow.
In that storm of 1987 my soon to be wife and step son were snowed in and wanted to get a movie rented at the local groery store. They took a picnic bench to move the snow out of their driveway to get to the road. After they got out of the driveway, they were able to get to Chilhowie to rent the movie. That was before she married a big strong guy to shovel her driveway. It was muscle that attrached her and not my brain. Oh well!!!!
Oh, if only the 0z NAM were the right solution!
Unfortunately, I really doubt it is
18Z GFS looked very similar. Throws a lot of moisture back behind the low into SW Virginia after the 850-millibar temperature drops to freezing.
My only question to snow lovers would be: How many of you are willing to go without power 1-3 days (or maybe more) for an odd spring snow? Even 3 inches of wet snow with current leafed-out trees would cause a lot of damage. 6-inches-plus would be a monumental tree and power-outage disaster. That’s what West Virginia and Pennsylvania are facing. Will any of that spin back into parts of western Virginia?
No me, thank you. I have a generator but I want it to stay in the shed.
Oakey and Griggsy have done dropped the ball. Too busy focused on next winter, methinks.
Yes, Brandon, we considered the snow season over with. And wd, if I was on a walking route on Tuesday, (I won’t be, this coming week’s schedule is my reward for having a very tough week just ended …. The only day I walk will be Thursday, after having walked Wed., Friday and today this week) I just might have to walk through a bit of snow. But I’ll believe when I see it … at least in Roanoke city.
And as Kevin has already warned, be careful what you wish for, snow lovers. I have made reference both in late October and recently to a huge, wet 16-inch snow that buried Albany, NY in very early October 1987. Well, that snowstorm hit with leaves still on trees, and it was several days without power in numerous communities, and perhaps even a week for some of the “last-rescued” folks.