UPDATE 4:30 PM: We’re headed for warm, dry period later this week, then maybe reversal next week
UPDATE 4:30 PM: Take a look at a visible satellite photo from this afternoon, linked here, to see why Roanoke and points east are staying in the low 60s with drizzle and fog under dense low cloud cover, while locations to the west are in sunshine and rising into the 70s and low 80s — enough to cook up at least one thunderstorm that has led to a severe thunderstorm warning in parts of Wythe and Grayson counties (current radar linked here). END UPDATE
Kind of a weird day Sunday, though a beautiful one, with Blacksburg having a high temperature (78) that was 7 degrees warmer than Roanoke (71). It wouldn’t be odd to see something like that when Roanoke is socked into fog that clears farther west, or some kind of rain band or storms moving in a way to affect Roanoke but not Blacksburg, but it is quite unusual to see a +7 temperature differential in Blacksburg’s favor when both sites are in sunshine. The trick was that a high pressure system pressing in cooler air held in just a little longer to the east, so Roanoke’s temperature was more stubborn to rise.
Through the next two days, we’re still near a back-and-forth front that has been sliding north and south for several days, and there will be continued upper-air disturbances zipping by. This will keep a chance of showers and storms around that will be hard to time on days that may just as easily be mostly sunny and warm, like Sunday (perhaps very warm on Tuesday, well into the 80s possible). By Wednesday and Thursday, the front finally gets a good shove northward as a warm front and, a very warm, mostly dry air mass takes hold for several days. Expect widespread 80s for the latter half of the week, with a 90-degree reading or two not impossible somewhere in our general region on a day or two. Don’t get used to it though, as there are signs that the pattern may collapse rapidly at some point next week, and turn around to an unseasonably cool scenario for several days after the hot 
spell. The North Atlantic and Arctic oscillations are projected to dip into a negative phase for early to mid May, meaning more blocking high pressure in the far north forcing cooler air south, and several forecast models show a southward-dipping jet stream developing. Sunday’s computer-generated temperature forecast maps from the Climate Prediction Center (inset at left: 6 to 10 day map at top, 8 to 14 day map at bottom) show the potential temperature contrast vividly. So our short-term flip-flopping may stop for a few days with a warmup later this week, but a big flip-flop back to cooler weather may well occur in the longer term next week.
April 29, 2012 - 11:40 PM
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The moist wedge has developed in the Roanoke and New River valleys, along the Blue Ridge and points eastward. That will keep temperatures down some this afternoon, til it breaks.
The Roanoke Times has a new gardening blog, as requested by some of you:
http://blogs.roanoke.com/downtoearth/
Thanks Kevin for the link to the Gardening Blog. I just visited and left Karen a comment. Maybe this will free up some space for just weather comments for you.
Still partly cloudy and coolish up here on the ridge. Looking forward to the warm up this week.
So did I. This should make a couple of the weather purist happy, since I’ll be taking my plantin business over there.
I’m not going to ban gardening comments. They’re almost inevitable when we have a freeze situation or something like that. But I am glad there is a blog focused more directly on gardening.
I just went over and posted too. Looking forward to hearing some tips!
Glad to see a gardening blog finally around here…it won’t curtail my stopping in for weather talk, but it’ll be nice to have a more concentrated place to talk gardening issues and whatnot. Now I just hope that the facebook commenting system is not ever chosen…
As for today’s weather, the sun finally broke out here in the NRV after a cloudy morning. I’m sort of hoping any storms that pop up wait a bit, I’ve got some work to do outside that I wasn’t able to do over the weekend…that i really want to complete before the mid/late-week warmup.
Classic wedge effect hanging tough in Roanoke Valley and eastward. Near 60 temps in Roanoke, warming into 70s much of NRV and west.
Ah, another cutesy weather term for crappy weather that seems to have taken Roanoke as its home base. 63* has been the high, not one single drop of rain and I ain’t caught so much as a glimpse of Bent Mt. today
Current high temp in Goodview is 60.8. Forecasted overnight low tonight of 60. Shouldn’t struggle to drop that low
Just linked a satellite photo at the top of this entry clearly showing where the low clouds are from Roanoke and the Blue Ridge eastward, and where they’re not.
http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/files/2012/04/satellite0430.jpg
Sometimes the meteorologists all miss the forecast (I know for a fact that the NWS, WDBJ7 and TWC were all in that category), but I am happy that they did. Today was one of those days. EVERYONE on the monster route had some sort of mail today, and I have the sore muscles and drained energy to prove it. But it would have been even tougher if the temps had warmed to the low 70s with all that “hum-didity.” And no real rain, either. I chose not to wear overshoes, although my lightweight walking shoes got a bit damp by the last couple of hours in the mist (no biggie). And I am grateful that I don’t have to do the monster later this week when it just might reach 90 in ROA (the heat index almost certainly will).
Two things about the gardening blog. 1. CONGRATULATIONS to all you gardeners!! I may have to go take a look at it. 2. Unlike some of the purists who want this blog to be strictly about weather, and don’t even want to read about how weather affects other folks, I enjoy just about all of the comments here. So I will miss the gardening comments. So I for one would appreciate reading a comment or 8 here about how your gardens are doing. I plan on making and hopefully seeing comments by others about how the recent levels of moisture (or too much or too little of it) affect life.
People in most of the eastern U.S. sometimes take the green conditions of spring, summer, and the first half of autumn for granted. I have probably been guilty of that, too. But seeing the almost unbelievable drought conditions in Texas late last summer and even personally seeing a golf course where the creek beds didn’t even have any mud in the bottom of them, I try to remind myself just how crucial an adequate water supply is for so many things.
KM, what would you consider the best, most important weather forecast of all time? Everybody is welcome to join in. I’m talking about a putting your head in the noose type forecas with no room for cutesy weather terms. I have my answer and will post it later.
I would vote for D-Day, wd. Allied meteorologists successfully predicted a window of time for a massive amphibious assault when German meteorologists said it would be too stormy.
My vote from the getgo. A truely amazing work of art, considering the consequences. All of 67 years ago. Now that was a piece of forecasting. Sometimes I wonder if it’s improved much since then. I know it has, but!!!!
What a weather day it has been up here on the ridge. Started out cool and foggy and then at lunch time the sun was able to break through and it got toasty. As I was mowing, I could see clouds/fog rolling in from the southeast. Then we went into a cool and foggy period for the afternoon and just awhile ago, the sun came back and it warmed up. Now it looks like we are going back to the foggy and cool period again. I saw the rain/storm down south of here in Carrol Co. Also see the line of storms coming through Kentucky heading this way. It would be nice to get some rain from one of these storm systems.
The wedge is going to kill any of that convection that tries to push eastward into it.
A nice little thunder shower at the top of Christiansburg Mtn as we wait to start work. Temp still a balmy 60 degrees
The Old Farmers Almanac predicts a very cold May. I don’t believe it for a minute.
MAY 2012: temperature 54.5° (5.5° below avg.); precipitation 3″ (1″ below avg.); May 1-8: Showers, cool; May 9-11: Sunny, cool; May 12-19: T-storms, then sunny, cool; May 20-25: Sunny, warm, then rainy, cool; May 26-31: Sunny, warm.
While you folks had a major ‘wedgie’ in progress, we were in the low 80′s today with abundant sunshine. Sorry about that. Strong storms fired up along the mtns east of here and we had some out flow dark clouds before dark but no rain. More warm sunshine tomorrow for us with a 30% chance of a storm.
wd and Kevin, I would agree with you two about D-Day. But the forecast for Hurricane Katrina ranks right up there. And Camille in 1968 or ’69. And the Oklahoma City (1999) and Tuscaloosa (2011) tornado outbreaks. One of the epic worst forecasts in the USA which contributed to many deaths (although weather forecasting was practically back in the dawn of time compared to now) was the forecast for Galveston Texas back in 1900, when a mammoth Cat 4 or Cat 5 absolutely flooded and destroyed Galveston. I saw a Weather Channel documentary on that tragedy, and forecasters had received some reports from ships in the Gulf of how bad things were, but thought the storm was headed elsewhere or would not be that bad.
One of the biggest mistakes people can make in both weather forecasting and also in war is to under-estimate the “enemy.” In fact, it could even be extended to sports, too, where the “enemy” is your opponent. I guess even politics, too.
Oklahoma City in 1999 was a good forecast, but it was almost a fluke. The day started with a slight risk of scattered severe storms, but was upgraded simply because a single mesonet sensor picked up a stronger low level wind flow than was anticipated. Subsequent updates pushed the risk to moderate and then high, emphasizing long track tornadoes.
The biggest advance I’ve seen in the last 10-15 years or so is the ability to predict major tornado outbreaks 3-7 days in advance. True for Alabama in 2011, also true for the Ohio Valley outbreak at the start of March this year and Oklahoma/Kansas 2 weeks ago. Small outbreaks and individual tornadic storms slip through the net (Pulaski/Draper tornades last year occurred under a severe thunderstorm watch, and were only 2 in the nation that day), but large outbreaks rarely happen out of thin air any more. Anyone that says they weren’t aware of the potential for a large tornado outbreak this year and last just wasn’t paying attention.