Comments on: UPDATE 4:30 PM: We’re headed for warm, dry period later this week, then maybe reversal next week

By: Kevin Myatt

Kevin Myatt — Tue, 01 May 2012 02:52:15 +0000

Oklahoma City in 1999 was a good forecast, but it was almost a fluke. The day started with a slight risk of scattered severe storms, but was upgraded simply because a single mesonet sensor picked up a stronger low level wind flow than was anticipated. Subsequent updates pushed the risk to moderate and then high, emphasizing long track tornadoes.

The biggest advance I’ve seen in the last 10-15 years or so is the ability to predict major tornado outbreaks 3-7 days in advance. True for Alabama in 2011, also true for the Ohio Valley outbreak at the start of March this year and Oklahoma/Kansas 2 weeks ago. Small outbreaks and individual tornadic storms slip through the net (Pulaski/Draper tornades last year occurred under a severe thunderstorm watch, and were only 2 in the nation that day), but large outbreaks rarely happen out of thin air any more. Anyone that says they weren’t aware of the potential for a large tornado outbreak this year and last just wasn’t paying attention.

By: Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County

Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — Tue, 01 May 2012 01:58:07 +0000

wd and Kevin, I would agree with you two about D-Day. But the forecast for Hurricane Katrina ranks right up there. And Camille in 1968 or ’69. And the Oklahoma City (1999) and Tuscaloosa (2011) tornado outbreaks. One of the epic worst forecasts in the USA which contributed to many deaths (although weather forecasting was practically back in the dawn of time compared to now) was the forecast for Galveston Texas back in 1900, when a mammoth Cat 4 or Cat 5 absolutely flooded and destroyed Galveston. I saw a Weather Channel documentary on that tragedy, and forecasters had received some reports from ships in the Gulf of how bad things were, but thought the storm was headed elsewhere or would not be that bad.
One of the biggest mistakes people can make in both weather forecasting and also in war is to under-estimate the “enemy.” In fact, it could even be extended to sports, too, where the “enemy” is your opponent. I guess even politics, too.

By: Michael Hoback

Michael Hoback — Tue, 01 May 2012 01:32:01 +0000

While you folks had a major ‘wedgie’ in progress, we were in the low 80′s today with abundant sunshine. Sorry about that. Strong storms fired up along the mtns east of here and we had some out flow dark clouds before dark but no rain. More warm sunshine tomorrow for us with a 30% chance of a storm.

By: Rick in Wytheville

Rick in Wytheville — Tue, 01 May 2012 01:00:14 +0000

The Old Farmers Almanac predicts a very cold May. I don’t believe it for a minute.

MAY 2012: temperature 54.5° (5.5° below avg.); precipitation 3″ (1″ below avg.); May 1-8: Showers, cool; May 9-11: Sunny, cool; May 12-19: T-storms, then sunny, cool; May 20-25: Sunny, warm, then rainy, cool; May 26-31: Sunny, warm.

By: Randy Oakey Cahas Mtn

Randy Oakey Cahas Mtn — Tue, 01 May 2012 00:31:46 +0000

A nice little thunder shower at the top of Christiansburg Mtn as we wait to start work. Temp still a balmy 60 degrees

By: Kevin Myatt

Kevin Myatt — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 23:06:08 +0000

The wedge is going to kill any of that convection that tries to push eastward into it.

By: Doppler Carol (Floyd Co. Doppler 2546 ft)

Doppler Carol (Floyd Co. Doppler 2546 ft) — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 23:04:41 +0000

What a weather day it has been up here on the ridge. Started out cool and foggy and then at lunch time the sun was able to break through and it got toasty. As I was mowing, I could see clouds/fog rolling in from the southeast. Then we went into a cool and foggy period for the afternoon and just awhile ago, the sun came back and it warmed up. Now it looks like we are going back to the foggy and cool period again. I saw the rain/storm down south of here in Carrol Co. Also see the line of storms coming through Kentucky heading this way. It would be nice to get some rain from one of these storm systems.

By: wdbrand [SW Rke. Co., 1827"

wdbrand [SW Rke. Co., 1827" — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 23:01:46 +0000

My vote from the getgo. A truely amazing work of art, considering the consequences. All of 67 years ago. Now that was a piece of forecasting. Sometimes I wonder if it’s improved much since then. I know it has, but!!!!

By: Kevin Myatt

Kevin Myatt — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 22:40:03 +0000

I would vote for D-Day, wd. Allied meteorologists successfully predicted a window of time for a massive amphibious assault when German meteorologists said it would be too stormy.

By: wdbrand [SW Rke. Co., 1827"

wdbrand [SW Rke. Co., 1827" — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 22:21:48 +0000

KM, what would you consider the best, most important weather forecast of all time? Everybody is welcome to join in. I’m talking about a putting your head in the noose type forecas with no room for cutesy weather terms. I have my answer and will post it later.