UPDATE MIDNIGHT, 5/4: More of the same scattered storms through weekend, but not quite as warm
UPDATE MIDNIGHT, 5/4: An area of storms in West Virginia, Kentucky and Ohio is sliding toward us overnight. Some parts of Southwest Virginia may experience a period of rumbles and heavy rain in the early morning hours, with chances being greater the farther west you are in the region. (Follow the overnight storms on the Weather Journal’s new radar display, linked here.) There will be likely be some break in rain after this passes, but new scattered storms could develop in the afternoon, as daytime heating, humidity, a weak front from the north and a rather potent upper-level disturbance interact. Sunday looks to be similar, perhaps a few degrees cooler behind the “backdoor” cold front. No real change in the general weather until a stronger cold front pushes in about midweek. END UPDATE
90 degrees will have to wait — maybe til late May or even June, when we would more typically expect it. Roanoke’s high fell a degree short of 90 again Thursday, while Blacksburg soared to a new record high for May 3, 87 degrees. The heat and humidity — dew points well into the 60s — cooked up some afternoon thunderstorms, some of which became severe with some hail reports. We’ll likely see somewhat more 
numerous showers and storms in Southwest Virginia both Friday and Saturday, as the warmth and humidity combine with (a) an upper-level disturbance moving northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico and (b) a “backdoor” cold front that will slide southward to near the North Carolina-Virginia border or a little farther south on Saturday. These systems will assist the unseasonable warmth — highs are likely to back off into the upper 70s to mid 80s most places with more clouds, but that’s still 10-15 degrees above normal for early May — in creating more lift and instability to create thunderstorms, some of which may contain gusty winds and hail. (Inset image at left is the Weather Central “Futurecast” for 3 p.m. Friday, showing scattered green blobs for showers and storms, as seen on Weather Journal’s new Radar/Futurecast display linked in the right margin.) Periods of showers and storms and continued warmer than normal temperatures appear to be likely through about the middle of next week, when a strong cold front is expected to push through, leading to several days of much cooler weather. Whether that just means cooler than what we’re seeing now — i.e. back to normals in the upper 60s/low 70s for highs and lows in the mid 40s to low 50s — or something a bit colder that could raise frost concerns, at least in outlying areas, late next week remains a bit blurry.
May 3, 2012 - 11:37 PM
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KM, that was the other thing on my mind when you talked about the Ark. boy mowing the lawn. Acclimation. Once met a guy who was a native Hawaiian, born and raised. When I met him as a young adult, he had been living in Minnesota for 4 years. Almost “froze to death” his first winter. Told me he went back to Hawaii in late February after 4 years away and was “dying of the heat.” And Hawaii does get a tiny bit hotter in the summer months vs. the winter.
Kevin, Any ideas about Saturday morning weather between 8 AM and 12 noon? It’s Radford University’s graduation ceremony and I wonder if we’ll get wet or need to prepare for thunderstorms.
You should definitely be prepared for storms on Saturday morning. The patchy nature of it will make it hard to time any particular period of storms, but there will be an upper-level disturbance and a weak frontal boundary in the area that could trigger storms at any time. Hopefully you’ll catch a window of time between storm clusters. Keep an eye on the radar.
Aaron: You had a great comment on the previous thread. Paul D. and Frustrated Reader made one point though. There are many other weather websites and weather blogs. Maybe they can find one that better meets their needs. This blog is great the way it is and Kevin is a fantastic moderator.
I thoroughly enjoy reading the comments on this blog, especially those from the regular participants: Kevin Myatt, Doug Griggs, Doppler Carol, Nurse Snow, Other John, Glen Quagmire, Indian Valley John, Sam Oakey, Hokie Trax, Clarkdocvet and all the others. Most of the comments are weather related but I still enjoy hearing about Doug’s mail route and “goof days”; Doppler Carol’s wood stove; Nurse Snow’s garden; Hokie Trax’s travels; Glen Quagmire’s flights; Sam Oakey’s snow hating voodoo doll; and Kevin’s family. These comments have made these people real, feeling human beings. If I were to meet any one of them, I would consider them a friend.
Kevin: Most of us enjoy the latitude you allow and enjoy the personalities and idiosyncrasies of the participants. Even when we disagree with each other we have tolerance for our differences and respect for each other. Even complaints (usually weather related) are posted with a sense of humor. I guess that is why Paul D. and Frustrated Reader’s comments shocked and disappointed me so much. The weather blog is great the way it is and it has a wonderful weather loving community that supports it and you. I would miss it very much if it changed or went away.
We did hit 90 (90.1) in Goodview yesterday so that’s two in a row for us. I’d trade those for less rain than looks like we might get for this weekend where I have a full plate….First Fridays tonight, neighborhood clean-up at the lake tomorrow and golf tourney Sunday
Wow, I checked in early yesterday but didn’t comment. I’m glad I didn’t, might have miffed some people off. Because I would definitely have spoken about my garden and how I feel that this wacky weather is affecting my onions LOL
Thank you Leo Lady for your kind words. I too enjoy coming to this blog reading about everyone. I have met Mr. Griggs and find him quite enjoyable to talk to. I’ve gotten some gardening and bird advice from wd and Doppler Carol. I enjoy reading the friendly banter among regulars. I personally think Kevin does a wonderful job and would hate to see anything change.
I certainly don’t want to discourage anyone from visiting this blog even if they don’t think the commenting or moderation of commenting is perfect.
Indeed, short personal notes add to this “online weather community.” A line or two of what’s on the wood stove or what’s popping up in the garden… enjoyable.
The value of (1) multi-paragraph, (2) frequent, (3) non-weather-related “LiveJournal” posts is worthy of debate.
Respectfully, I’d be interested in seeing actual website data that would allow any one poster to assert what “most of us” enjoy in this public space.
There may be many very avid, interested readers who don’t post.
Perhaps, out of politeness or expediency, they ignore the long non-weather-related posts. Should they be asked to leave when forbearance of self-indulgence grows too thin?
If they are very few, perhaps Yes. If they are many, than perhaps other solutions would be found via moderation, enhanced user tools, or self-editing of the more self-related posts.
Website or survey data could answer that in an objective, non-personalized fashion, I’d hope.
I read this blog often, and rarely comment, however I would like to say ditto to Leo Lady, number 4. comment. There is no need to be nasty, and frankly, weather affects so many of the aspects of our lives and that is what makes this blog so interesting.
Thanks Kevin for doing such a great job!
The conversation is ongoing, I see.
First let me reiterate: I, personally, as blog moderator and content provider, am not asking NO ONE to leave or go elsewhere. (In six years of blogging, I have blocked a grand total of ONE person! And he/she was not local.) And of course in the online world, visiting other weather sites or blogs and coming here are not mutually exclusive. We like the cross-pollination of thoughts and ideas from elsewhere.
Some of what this blog will be like in the future will depend on the bigger decisions made about roanoke.com as a whole. Our group of blogs have a few overarching guidelines, but each blog has its own personality. There may be new software or blog guidelines that come out of the RefreshRT process that change things, at least somewhat.
By nature, a blog usually has far more visitors than commenters. I’m glad to be hearing from some never-before or rare commenters.
Kevin, will the new Weather Journal/blog radar/futurecast thingy be available on the mobile edition anytime soon? If there’s already a way, please point me in the right direction
I have really enjoyed the ‘community’ that this blog has become. I’m not quite as active in commenting as I had been, mainly due to time contraints, but I try to at least check in daily to see what’s new in the local weather and what people are saying about it.
The ancillary and sometimes unrelated comments are a big part of that…be they related to weather in a significant fashion or just a minor one. It’s similar to how Aaron McFarling’s blog is in that sense…a lot of good side discussion often results, sometimes not very related to sports…but entertaining nonetheless.
I like that, honestly. To me it’s better than having to stick strictly to the main topic or the content of a particular thread, or having posts get trashed. That removes some of the enjoyment and community feel. But that’s my opinion, I know others feel differently.
I really do like the new radar/futurecast maps…and I ditto Brian’s comment about wanting to see if it’s available for mobile devices. I use a BB and check the blogs with it when I’m on the road. I do have links stored for the NWS radar because the java works for my phone so I can see the radar and loops though, among other weather-related links and apps I use.
There’s no need for personal attacks against specific commenters, even if they are a bit long-winded and sometimes not directly weather related. I just skim through and read what interests me, and skip the stuff that doesn’t. Life’s too short to get worked up about something like that.
Wow…we have a fan club. Thanks for the kind words Leo Lady. For the most part, this ol’ weather nut hangout has been just that…a place where we can hangout and talk about the weather. Just like in the good ol days.
Kevin has done a tremendous job with this blog in keeping it real with respect to weather. Believe me when I say there are other weather blogs and forums out in Cyberland that go over board and out of control but you really don’t find that here except for my blown winter weather forecasting. But I love it here. We’re more like friends and family here than anywhere else.
I especially enjoy Doug’s comments. They are like a box of chocolates, you never know what yer gonna git.”
One more thing…
Kevin, I did some research on my Future cast question from the other day.
Intellicast provides the data and MS/Bing applies the data to their own maps and displays. FYI, Intellicast combines all resources just like the other weather providers do.
Also from the SPC effective May 1, 2012
The Rapid Refresh (RAP) model has replaced the RUC model at 12Z on May 1 2012. All references to RUC model fields in the Mesoscale Analysis, Fire Weather Analysis, and Compmap pages have been changed to indicate the RAP model background input to the display fields. (Updated: May 1 2012)
Here’s the SPC webpage for those who want to keep an eye out on the weekend thunderstorms.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
I’ll be listening for Kevin on WVTF at 4:30 PM
Have a great weekend everyone, I’ll be at the Montpelier Wine Festival Saturday
I’m a longtime reader of this blog(since middle school, now a senior about to graduate), and though I may not comment all that much, I check it daily to read comments of others whether they are about the weather or just general comments about anything. I also visit other weather sites such as the the Americawx forums where I actively post through the severe weather season. I do have to say that this blog is the go to place to get local weather because a lot of times on other forums, SW Va seems to be forgotten about. Thank-you Kevin and every other person that has contributed to this blog. It makes it a joy to visit and without the family-type atmosphere and many of the commenters, I don’t think this blog would be as successful as it is now.
Hm..I would fall into the category of daily (Every 30 mins or so) reader, that rarely posts. Mostly because it’s more enjoyable to watch this blog like I’m in window looking upon the street. Everyone mentioned in Leo Lady’s post have this incredible thing going that is very entertaining and informative. Don’t let a few people having a bad day discourage any one of you from continuing on with what makes my day go by…
Weather affects every facet of our day to day lives. Kevin, your blog shows that. Keep doing what you are doing – you get an A+ in my book. Looking forward to hearing about the storm chasing you will be doing in the next couple weeks.
I read this blog every day, although I rarely post. This site absolutely can’t be beat for finding out what’s going on with the weather in SW VA. And I thoroughly enjoy the regular posters – the “blog family” is an important part of the experience and and important reason why I keep coming back. Another significant issue, to me anyway, is that the atmosphere on this blog is good natured and friendly. I would urge the commentators on the previous thread that are either 1) having a bad day and/or 2) not happy with the comments and atmosphere on this blog to go elsewhere. We don’t need bad natured comments – that’s not what this blog is about.
I’ll just throw in my nickel’s worth. If it ain’t broke don’t fix it.
I’m pretty active on internet message boards, and this and sometimes Bitter’s and Mark Taylor’s blogs are the only three that I go to on the Roanoke.com website and this is the main one.
While the other internet message boards could be analogous to an online bar or pub where thinks get heated, I find that the weather blog here to be more like a general store where interactions are short, but pleasant and very helpful.
I have no problems reading about someone’s golf game or working out in the weather. While no one is being forced to read someone’s commentary, tightening up on what is allowable content (with the obvious restriction of political stuff) would really hurt the atmosphere here. I like things how they are.
I appreciate everyone’s comments and insights. For now, there are no real changes planned in how I do the blog or how comments are moderated.
Getting back to weather for a second — it seems most of the storms today developed south of Roanoke, in Carroll, Floyd, Franklin, Patrick and Henry counties, and have already shifted eastward.
Kevin, you do a great job at what you do. Don’t let anyone else tell you otherwise.
Doug and for the others interested: I’m certainly glad to have gotten my round in at Ole Monterrey yesterday! For the first 7 holes, it was ridiculously hot and sticky outside, even worse than the time I played at Blue Hills Golf Course last July. Luckily, it cooled off for the remainder of the time and I just finished before HUGE wind gusts “attacked” the golf course and then the rain came in. After Hole 7, the clouds were a welcome relief…it at least cooled down by 15 degrees from the cloud cover.
Kevin, what is the best time to view the ‘Super Moon’ tomorrow night? I understand it technically occurs at 11:34 PM but I also understand it will actually look bigger due to perception at moon rise. So when is moon rise and what direction do I look? (I hope the latter is not a silly question!)
Paul: You know as much as I do about it, based on what I could gather quickly online. A full moon will rise about the time the sun sets and be pretty high up in the sky by 11:30.
Hey Kevin, any thoughts about the viability of storms coming through at 2-5am as NOAA is stating? I’ve been watching the upstream radar, and wondering if there is enough “juice” to maintain such strength.
Mike
The storms probably survive overnight, but may end up sliding a bit more west and south, more toward the I-77 corridor and westward. Always difficult to tell with an MCS (mesoscale convective system — or big storm cluster) as they often seem to have minds of their own. Don’t be surprised to hear thunder and pelting rain overnight. Severe threat likely to wane quite a bit as we lose daytime heating, but some locally strong wind gusts possible.
Wow, I have only read the first six comments on this thread and as the Indian chief (played wonderfully by Chief Dan George) in Little Big Man, “my heart soars like an eagle.” Thanks, ladies!! I was toying with the idea of going over to the gardening blog, briefly commenting about how early my rhododendron blossomed (two weeks ago!!), then encouraging Nurse Garden, Other John, Doppler Gal, and Other John to simply read what was on this blog yesterday. But I must admit that would not have been fair to Karen Hager, the Gardening Wizard (I know, “wizard” is masculine in nature, but it would really be inappropriate to call her the “Gardening Witch”).
And I readily admit that Paul D and Frustrated Reader are completely entitled to their opinions. It is (still) a free country. But so am I and other folks here, provided we do not violate any of the guidelines.
Today’s weather: I thought it was terrific. Nice little breeze at times, and if it was humid, it certainly was nothing like the previous two days. Maybe I had gotten acclimated to the heat and humidity by sitting in the toasty, humid postal truck on Wed. and Thursday. Even though letter carriers who walk expend a whole lot more energy and get a lot more tired than those who ride, it is actually hotter inside the truck.
Wow, still MORE comments that were “heart-soars-like-an-eagle” for me, and I hope for many/most other folks who visit here.
QUAGS: you may have blown some winter forecasts, but I am still in “first place” (or maybe “last place” would be a more appropriate phrase) all by my lonesome for WORST FORECAST EVER on this blog. I predicted that March 2012 would be at least 5 degrees cooler than normal in Roanoke, figuring that the long overdue switch to a negative NAO would finally happen. ACTUAL: +10.1 !!!!!!! A chimpanzee throwing darts at 21 different pieces of paper with each one listing a number from -10.0 to +10.0 (with a zero thrown in there of course) had a 75% chance of being more accurate than I was.
NICK: what did you shoot at Ole Monterey? And what kind of condition was the course in? I am thinking of playing locally next Wed., and it will probably be a choice between Ole Monterey and Blue Hills. I find Ole Monterey a real contrast …. the front 10 are mostly easy, but the last 8 have some of the toughest holes I have ever played.
You can see on the radar now how one section of the storms is forming a bowing line northwest of Charleston WVa and starting to head more south, while the overall rain/storms area is making begrudging progress eastward. Models want to take the heaviest storms more southward across far SW Va into east Tennessee. It may be a close call whether any of that ends up farther eastward overnight/early Saturday.
Well I missed WVTF at 4:30pm. Had to put my Mother in Bristol Hospital with heart issues. Having a cath on Monday. Weather was cloudy and a bit cooler here this am but sun came out this pm and it was not as hot. We could use some of that rain headed toward SW VA and East TN.
I also enjoy the comments and enjoy my fellow bloggers. Hope we can continue to share.
pmac, I really enjoyed your question about the Full Flower Moon / Super Moon tomorrow night. And it is something I know a bit about, from studying where the full moons are in the sky. Answer: the full moons in late autumn and early winter are nearly always directly overhead or very close to it. Conversely, the late spring and early summer full moons are much lower in the sky compared to the early winter ones, but at 11:35 PM the Full Moon should be well up there in the southern sky, perhaps a tiny bit closer to SSE or SE.
I am going to make another prediction, and this will greatly increase the chances that viewing conditions will be good: I predict that the full moon will not be visible between 9:30 P.M. and 1:30 A.M., because of a thick cloud cover or rain. I desperately hope that it will be another typical bad Griggs prediction!!! LOL I really want to see how big the moon will appear. Will it be as big as a “pizza pie?”
Michael Hoback, best wishes for your mom!! Sorry to hear that she has such a serious health issue.
pmac, if KM posts this immediately and if you read this soon, I suggest that you go look at the moon now. It will rise about 45 minutes later tomorrow night, and therefore should be a bit lower in the sky at this time tomorrow and also a bit more toward the SE rather than being due south, which is where I think it is now.
I just saw Robin Reed on WDBJ7, and his “Forecast Model” DOES show fairly persistent cloudiness throughout tomorrow evening. Could my prediction come true? I hope not!!
If there are daytime storms, there may be debris clouds into the evening on Saturday.
Robin also said that nighttime t-storms have a better chance of holding together, so that he thinks some area in SW Virginia will get the leftovers from the t-storms now approaching Charleston, West Virg. Maybe he will be right. All I know is that I asked Kevin here about a week ago around midnight about a very similar situation, and the t-storms were already in the Beckley area, as I remember it. My driveway was dry as a bone the next morning, as was Roanoke city. No one commented here about getting a t-storm in the wee hours later that night, so I think that system dissipated-disintegrated-WASEATENBYTHEMOUNTIANS-whatever.
By the way, I don’t think the moon looks at all large right now. It seems hard to believe that 24 hours would make that much of a diff.
It’s warm and sticky tonight, so the storms should have the fuel to survive. Some of the upper wind patterns may nudge them more southward than eastward as we go through the night, though. Chances are better the farther west you are relative to Roanoke.
Hopefully for Saturday outdoor graduations like the one at Radford University, this pushes through in the early morning, and the “subsidence” or sinking air behind it quashes new convection for a few hours in the late morning/midday timeframe.
Nice day until the storms hit!Kept calling for a high of 90 here all week but because of the storms and cloudy conditions never made it much above 80!Yes i really enjoy this blog too!I don`t live in southwest Va,but everybody on here has made me fill welcome at all times and have been way too kind.Its that southwestern Va kindness that i really enjoy.Trust me everybody its not always like that up here in Northern Va.Currently a cool 60 in Marshall!P.S. Back to sorting my 2011 football cards and listening to the Beach Boys.Good Night all.
I’m a little late to the party, but I’d like to express my opinion on the discussion started in the other thread.
I’ve been following Kevin’s blog from the very beginning. Heck, I actually made the first ever Weather Journal comment. Before the blog existed, I would have to occasionally email Kevin about various local and national weather events if I wanted some input on them. He was always nice enough to respond, even though he didn’t have to.
This blog has eliminated the need for that. It’s a great service. And obviously, you can’t please everyone. That’s life. But as one commenter put it earlier, it doesn’t make much sense to come on here and complain about stuff that frankly isn’t that important.
It’s amazing to see how much this blog community has grown. I really don’t mind the off topic comments, especially when there isn’t too much happening around here in the weather department. Now if the blog were being spammed with nonsense during a big event, then I’d be annoyed. But I’d probably send Kevin a polite email rather than call someone out in front of thousands of readers.
Just chill out people. Take a deep breath. Relax. It’s not that big of a deal.
I did not read all the comments, but just want to post that I really enjoy this blog. It’s the second thing on my list when I’m checking computer stuff once or twice a day…the frst is noaa.gov for my location. I’ve been a weather hobbyist since childhood (which is far in the past now). Sinice we have a small farm, it’s even an appropriate hobby!
Kevin, and others of you, have far and away the best weather commentary going and I often recommend this blog to others!
By the way, it has been raining here in Craig County at 6 AM, but seems to be stopping at the moment. I am hoping we get a break in the weather for the Blue Ridge Women’s Center Stroll at 10 AM!
KEVIN! Keep up the great work you do here…
Fellow commenters…thank you for participating…
Just a thought…if the comments bother you…ahem…don’t read them…I have proven that if you are in a hurry, you can read Kevin’s entry/update(s) without reading the comments…
And so, if the comments bother you…what comments would you see as appropriate here? Observations only? WOW…to me that would be incredibly boring unless we are in “storm mode”.
We should have a weather blog golf outing sometime. Seems like half of us are golfers.
Next week’s cool front looking pretty lame as of this morning. Low temps in Blacksburg stay at least 5 degrees or more above seasonal norms through next Friday morning, May 11th. Frost threat looking like a non-issue.
Just read Accuweather summer forecast! Oh please tell me it will verify, normal temps and above normal precipitation would be just what the doctor ordered after these last 2 summers. What is your take on the summer Kevin? Looks like the next few weeks in May will be georgous.
Was awaken at 6:30 am with the sound of thunder and then we had a brief shower. Damp, cool and cloudy so far this morning.
Blacksburg Mike; You take the Day 7 NWS temperature forecast more literally than the NWS’ own meteorologists do.
Thursday night is forecast to be CLOUDY so if that verifies there won’t be much radiational cooling. It will take a clear night with calm wind to maximize cooling.
I’m still saying 42 as the over-under mark (50-50 chance it will be above or below that mark) for Blacksburg’s lowest temp through 5/15 — so I didn’t really promise frost, though wouldn’t be surprised if it happened in outlying areas at some point. There are actually 2 cold fronts on the way as the pattern shifts, the second arriving late Friday or early Saturday. Here’s HPC’s Friday weather map as of now.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=7&fcolor=wbg
Forecast modeling was pretty good taking the storm cluster more south than southeast overnight. But some of the remnant showers are working eastward this morning and may rain on more of the area in the next few hours. May be a bad break for some outdoor graduation ceremonies.
I’d go to Blue Hills for sure Doug! Blue Hills is a lot better of a course and doesn’t have rough everywhere you go like in Ole Monterrey! Yes, the back 9 of Ole Monterrey is ridiculous. I played at Blue Hills back in July and I found it a lot better! However, I do like the front 9 at Ole Monterrey.
The course itself was better than it has been. I’ve been there at least once a year for the past 3 years and this year was by far the best condition it has been in in a while. Fairways were actually kept up well as well as the greens. Still not the best though. And I’m not the best golfer,so I didn’t shoot well like your 74. I only took up golf a few years ago and I LOVE it. I shot a 98…not that good at all but I like it cause that’s pretty good for myself…considering that when I first started, I was shooting 120s at BCC and 113 at Ashley Plantation. I’ve managed to get my score to around 100 so I see that as an improvement for only playing a few years. I have been making more double bogeys as of recently than double pars so I’m happy with that!
Weather today is a bit on the dank side! I love it! A little refreshing although a bit humid. Hope to get some rain! Can’t wait for the cooldown next weekend (the possible one). As it gets later and later, these will be more rare to find!
Attended spring graduation at Radford University. Weather is cloudy with light rain. I am so glad the family decided to skip the main ceremony. It was better than getting wet!
Some people have misconstrued my comments and have taken them into an entirely different direction. Should have known that could possibly happen.
My main beef was seeing people ask Kevin and others what the weather was going to be like at a given time on a given day. Ex…”Hey Kevin, what’s the weather going to be like between 6 and 7 on Friday because I want to cook out (because you’re the weather guy and I don’t want to bother looking up the information myself)!” My advice in that instance is to look up hourly forecasts on the different sites as questions like that tend to lower the level of conversation in my opinion.
Kevin in his blog posts and others their comments tend to provide fantastic information to others as it relates to patterns, trends, and what to expect weatherwise. I’ve learned a lot about weather in the several years I’ve read this blog.
However, I just think it’s a bit too much for someone to come onto a public forum and ask what the weather was going to be when they can go find the actual weather forecast on a myriad of other sites. They are just basically asking for a forecast when they could save time and find it elsewhere. And coming on here to ask about specifics is much different than when people actually help the blog by contributing with weather reports.
I think this blog and forum is a fantastic service and it has certainly educated me over the years that I’ve read it. And to respond to someone up above, it actually does certainly suit my needs.
And by the way, it’s 80 here today and cloudy and humid. A taste of Summer for sure. Chance of storms throughout the evening and some have the potential to be heavy. I’ve planned accordingly as far as my afternoon and evening activities. And I didn’t need to waste time by asking someone in a forum about that forecast.
So Kevin, keep up the good work. I enjoy the blog. I just find it from my standpoint to be a waste of your time when someone asks you about a specific time window. I’m sure you don’t mind it. It’s just very frustrating to read.
I was honored to be included as one of the weather blog regulars in Leo Lady’s comment 4. It gets very busy for me this time of year with my job at Tech so I’m not on as often. Frustrated Reader, I might be one of those guilty of asking Kevin what the weather may look like on a certain day. If weather was an exact science, there would be no need of or fun in this blog. Because it can change so quickly here in Hokieburg or be so vague, it helps to have someone like Kevin who understands our weather here to interpret the bigger picture. Much of what I do happens outdoors and we are constantly confronted with making weather calls, for safety, comfort and success of the event. I still cannot thank Kevin and our blog community enough for their input with the February snow storm as I was bringing back 5 students from a conference at Auburn. That helped us make some good decisions about departure time, route, and driver selection (I started driving once we hit Virginia) for a safe return. I enjoy the contribution of all our regulars and Kevin does an excellent job of keeping us in line.
Welcome back, Frustrated Reader!! By the way, where is “Here?” I am just curious. Tell us about yourself if you want.
Kevin – your call of 42 for Blacksburg may be right, but it would take an awfully cold valley to be 10 degrees colder for frost. Typically, at this time of year, Blacksburg records the coldest temp in the area in the early morning hours, and I am sure there are outlying areas that are colder, but 10 degrees is a big difference. Also, even if 42 verifies, that would still be only 2 degrees below normal. It has been so warm since about March 1st that I think we have all forgotten what normal is, and frost in mid-May in the NRV occurs about 33% of the years anyways. By the way, I enjoy all of the comments on this blog (weather and otherwise), and have learned quite alot on here from everyone!
Thanks, Frustrated Reader, for your clarification. I thought there might be some misinterpretations of what you had written, but I’m not about to speak for anyone else.
As far as specific, personal forecasting, it’s not really the purpose of this blog, I like to go a little more big picture. We have links on the page to the weather service forecast, both at the top underneath the nameplate and on the side with the current conditions for Roanoke and Blacksburg, and there are myriad other sources, too. When someone asks about weather for a certain place at a certain time, I sometimes will reply, with some weight given to the gravity of the situation (such as HokieTrax returning through the snowstorm). I don’t ever guarantee that I will answer — general busyness of life often precludes that — and I certainly don’t guarantee being right. Just ask one of our interns at the paper who I told last night that Radford’s graduation would probably get in between periods of rain.
An air temp of 37 or so will often allow frost to develop, Mike — because if it’s 37 at 6 feet up where official temps are measured, it can be 32 at grass level in excellent radiational cooling conditions because of how cold air sinks.
That said, what may end up happening with the coming pattern change is that it turns into more of a cloudy, damp, cool pattern, rather than clear, crisp nights. Could even be a closed low over the Eastern US by the 13th or so (pretty much guaranteed, as chilly, damp weather is pretty much a given for the departure of the Virginia Tech storm chasers). So I wouldn’t be surprised if the coolness ends up being realized more in daytime highs than in nighttime lows. Also, while it is a significant air mass shift from the unseasonably hot weather we’ve had, it’s not really an Arctic air mass. Harder to get those down here this late in the season.
I’ll stick to 42 as a mid-range on Blacksburg’s coolest temp in the shift to come.
There’s one thing going in favor of no frost. Temp at 6′ is normally higher than ground level. But just like warm days before a snow, the ground is warmer. This year, a bunch warmer, so less cooling at ground level and more heat coming up might mean the difference in whether it frosts or not.
Ture, wd. I definitely don’t expect a widespread frost to develop, if any at all does. But the chance isn’t zero yet, especially elevated valleys west of I-81.
Kevin…
I think this is the aviation side of
the product you were talking about earlier.
FAA is leaning to this for aviation planning.
Undoubtedly they must use some of teh same input data.
http://www.ll.mit.edu/mission/aviation/aviationwxresearch/cospa.html
Joe
Bburg Mike: I see the NWS creeping downward with its late-week lows. 48/46/47 for Wed-Fri. 60s/40s pattern by late week. 70/45 is normal late next week. Near or slightly below normal, we’ll call it, for now.
While we’re still on this thread, I’ll pass on my thoughts. Asking KM what the weather will be like, as whether an afternoon/evening shower will pop up, really tends to put him in the crosshairs. But he does it. Why, cause he’s the most qualified of any weather person to do so. As far as the poster looking this up in around 50/100 different sites/models, well 99% of us don’t have the knowledge or training to do that. KM does. Our area has to be one of the most difficult areas to even guess at what will happen by folks that know the drill here. That doesn’t include anybody typing from PA., OK. or DC. Two, maybe 3 people on this board have even a decent chance to get it right. The one post on this entire thread that stood out was Hokie Trax post. She asked what would be her best shot at getting a load of young folks back to B’Burg safely. This wasn’t asked because she was worried about being inconvienced, rather her responsibility of getting the kids back home. That’s a heapa trust in a board full of posters. And all the more reason to list your location, temps, current weather, road conditions, elevation which I’m sure KM can tell you how. This won’t be a forecast, a futurecast or a guess. It’s a nowcast and dead on the money for an area you might be traveling thru. It’s a network of spys. An underground railroad, a route planner. Oh, it’s 65.7* and light rain here.
I agree that people sometimes ask Kevin what the weather will be for specific times and places, but surely with the understanding that it is never an exact science. And sometimes they have looked at other weather sources and use his expertise to compare. Recently we wanted to get yard work done before the rain began, and the weather on most sites that I check said it would start here at 4:00 pm. Kevin said he thought it would be close to 2:00 pm. We just got finished at 2:00, and the rain started at 2:10 pm! Now you know why we want to see what Kevin has to say!
Frustrated Reader, at times I am a tiny bit sympathetic with your point of view. When someone asks on the blog more than 3 days in advance what the weather will be, all anyone can do is give a general outlook, which KM does gladly. And things can change both rapidly and radically sometimes. However, I have asked Kevin for his thoughts about what will happen tomorrow, or even later the same day, and it is usually because there is a substantial disagreement between and among several weather-forecasting facilities.
Probably the one type of condition that I am most skeptical about is when the weather here in Roanoke and points east has been cloudy and cool with an east wind (cold air wedge or cold air damming), while points west, sometimes as close as Blacksburg/Christiansburg, are much sunnier and milder. And the NWS and other organizations (usually the local tv stations at a minimum) will predict that ROA will snap out of it and become quite a bit milder the next day.
The general rule is that when I keep my fingers quiet and don’t question the warmer forecast, that is when the NWS and others “blow” the forecast and ROA stays very cloudy and cool with a stubborn east wind. And when I express doubt here on the blog and especially when I go out on the limb and predict a blown forecast, well, on those occasions the warm air DOES “invade” with a westerly wind and scours out the clouds and dampness and I am the one with the blown forecast.
In April alone there were two occasions, one on this past Monday, when the forecasts were badly off because of that lingering east wind. The one in the first half of the month was ridiculously off. As I remember it, the forecasts for Roanoke were in the mid and upper 60s, but the high was something like 52 or 53. This is an ongoing but very infrequent issue, and I sorta wish that the folks at NWS Blacksburg would look into it (go back and look at the last ten times that the wedge caused a missed forecast) and see if they can identify any specific conditions that would give them a better handle to help them identify what causes the wedge to win out and keep ROA and points east cool, and what causes the warmer air to win out and scour out the clouds and warm up ROA.
I would venture a wild-arse guess that the colder the time of year, the more likely Roanoke is going to remain cloudy and cool.
I really liked your 9:45 PM comment, Elizabeth! Your question that time was a great example of when it is extremely wise to ask Kevin. Each of us who is outside a lot and who pays attention to what happens where and when has terrific local knowledge. wd is a very prime example. He knows a ton about the weather patterns, especially snow, from his many years around here. Also, there was the fellow from the Cave Spring area (Prillaman?) who donated years of his weather records to Kevin a few years ago. Just from looking at his data for Cave Spring and comparing it to the records for Roanoke Regional Airport (formerly Woodrum Field), Kevin could make the generalization that there was something about the topographics in Cave Spring that nearly always made it a wetter location on a yearly basis than RRA. Stuff like that.
From my years delivering mail in the 24017 zip, and especially for the last 36 months since I have been delivering 5 different routes each week, I know which areas are more likely to get a rainstorm and which streets are likeliest to be windy.