Storm Chase 5/17: Trying to find the perfect storm in an imperfect pattern
YORK, Nebraska — Contrary to what you may have seen on TV, tornadoes don’t drop out of the sky left and right in a timely manner when storm chasers are around. Finding supercells and locating to observe and track them effectively can be challenging even in the most ballistic severe weather pattern, let alone one that is far less so. The next few days present such a pattern for the first of two Virginia Tech storm chase teams. Pieces of puzzle are coming together, particularly over the weekend, for severe weather potential in the northern Plains states (think Nebraska and the Dakotas). But none of those pieces is shaped perfectly to fit with the others. Gulf moisture is returning northward, recovering after the big upper-low that drenched much of Virginia helped sweep it away from the central U.S., but it is returning in a much weaker manner than is common in mid May. Upper-level winds are starting to pick up as a trough, or dip in the jet stream, begins to dig southward and eastward, but those winds are gradually weakening as the trough moves eastward. And while there is plenty of warmth at the surface to bubble moisture upward, it will be capped by similarly warm air aloft in many places, preventing the warm air from rising into cold air high in the sky for tall cumulonimbus clouds to build into storms. But these imperfect pieces are starting to align, and are likely to yield some level of severe weather, particularly Friday and Saturday. Exactly where and when is something our student chasers must unravel. And while the overall pattern is unlikely to yield a widespread severe weather outbreak, at least as we see it now, there will be probably be localized areas of enhanced spin that could produce a few, maybe just 1 or 2, rotating storms known as supercells, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Finding those is what we’re out here to do .
We’re in York, Nebraska, after a 2-day drive from Blacksburg. Some storms are possible on Thursday, in Nebraska or one of its bordering states, but any activity will likely be scattered and probably not severe or only marginally so.
Looks like some nice weather has settled into Southwest Virginia for a few days after Monday’s floods.
May 17, 2012 - 1:52 AM
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Just watched The Weather Channel, and they are predicting t-storms for your area for Saturday, at least (I did not see the forecast for today/tomorrow). I bet you head east after that, because the Dakotas and NEB dry out on Sunday, while the Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois etc. area are predicted to be stormy on Sunday.
Here’s the fresh temp and precip outlooks from the CPC. June looks to be a bit warm, as is the whole summer, but average precipitation is expected. I can live with that.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/page2.gif
It was interesting to look at the further extended outlooks into winter (link not provided) where there is no area shown in the lower 48 to have above normal precipitation. Seems the CPC is not committing yet to a fall/winter La Nina. Stay tuned.
Mr. Griggs, I was there Tuesday morning. Jennings Creek was schuduled for stocking of trout that morning. I was greeted by a road closed barricade, which I went around. Not far up Jennings, where North Creek runs in, it was a war zone. Trees, logs, debris littered the road and was piled up on the bridge. My buddy came off the parkway and was allowed to come thru. KM has an update on this area today. 9.29″ of rain at Apple Orchard don’t make for a peaceful creek.
Wow, we’re having one heck-of-a-storm. Lots of small hail, just moderate wind but heavey rain. Wild lightning. Gonna be some nasty flash flooding with the saturated ground and slow movement of this storm centered on Wythe County.
An isolated storm in the Hokieburg forecast isolated itself over us this evening and dumped! Rumbled too. Poured out an inch from the rain gauge at 10 pm.
We were talking about the Virginia storm warnings on our way to getting ourselves in a 60 mph dusty wind blast in Kansas today. More on that later.
Worked flights today from DFW to Dulles..
Nice line persisted along the Va-WVa border…looked
like it was enhanced some by upslope….very slow mover..
areas south of Monterey looked like they got the most of it..
Its the same narrow system that yesterday affected
folks and flights from New York to Missouri…looked like a string of
pearls on the naional radar yesterday…thinner coverage today but was
quite persistant on the WVA border.
Storms in and around Washington Co all evening. No substantial rain at the Chapel but strong lightening and loud thunder. Where it did rain, the radar showed it really rained.
Chalk one up for Blacksburg Mike. Showers hit not only Blacksburg, but hit Craig and perhaps eastern Giles and western Alleghany before that. And showers are also in the Smyth/Washington County areas right now. Did/are you getting rain now, Rick of Wytheville?
This wasn’t supposed to happen ….. And I think Robin Reed mentioned that they may be around tomorrow afternoon and evening, too.
High pressure building over SWVA next few days..
No rain for you guys till the High moves out of the Northeast.
Outta juice for this day. Plan to post Friday morning.
Last evening’s storm……..Exactly 1.00 rain and more lightning than I’ve seen for years. I don’t want another one of those.
We saw lots of storms all around us, to the west, north, and east…but just a few sprinkles at the house…despite a fair amount of thunder and visible lightning.
According to some reports I have seen, there was as much as 3 inches dumped in the Wytheville and surrounding areas last night. Can anyone verify?
Saw the storm clouds and felt the outlying winds but no rain here from those big storms that went west of here last night.
Joe, glad to hear we will have a few nice days here because of the high pressure building.