We are in the gap between the cool, dry high pressure that has dominated the past several days and the hot, somewhat more humid high pressure that will control the weather in Southwest Virginia and much of the Eastern U.S. the remainder of the week. Some Gulf of Mexico moisture and a week upper-level disturbance sliding southeastward are triggering showers across much of the region. Afternoon heating, especially if the sun manages to break through, may trigger more showers and even a few storms this afternoon before the disturbance moved on to the southeast. After today, hot high pressure will build overhead, leading to several days of summerlike high temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s across the region. This moisture won’t entirely dry up, so a few afternoon pop-up storms will be possible each afternoon — just what you’d expect from mid to late June.
The effect of all the clouds and showers will be one more day of sub-80 high temperatures over most of the region. The last 4 days have not made it to 80 in Roanoke, and 15 of 17 days in June haven’t made it to 80 at Blacksburg, contributing to a June that currently is on pace to vie to be among the 10 coolest on record. However, the coming period of highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and lows in the 60s to perhaps some low 70s will likely lift June’s average temperatures quite a bit. Even though a weekend cold front will break this week’s hot spell at least temporarily, long-term indications point toward more high-pressure ridging overhead and therefore a lean toward above-normal temperatures in the next couple of weeks. June may well end up having a cool half and a hot half and average somewhere fairly close to normal.