A showery interlude before a hot spell begins
We are in the gap between the cool, dry high pressure that has dominated the past several days and the hot, somewhat more humid high pressure that will control the weather in Southwest Virginia and much of the Eastern U.S. the remainder of the week. Some Gulf of Mexico moisture and a week upper-level disturbance sliding southeastward are triggering showers across much of the region. Afternoon heating, especially if the sun manages to break through, may trigger more showers and even a few storms this afternoon before the disturbance moved on to the southeast. After today, hot high pressure will build overhead, leading to several days of summerlike high temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s across the region. This moisture won’t entirely dry up, so a few afternoon pop-up storms will be possible each afternoon — just what you’d expect from mid to late June.
The effect of all the clouds and showers will be one more day of sub-80 high temperatures over most of the region. The last 4 days have not made it to 80 in Roanoke, and 15 of 17 days in June haven’t made it to 80 at Blacksburg, contributing to a June that currently is on pace to vie to be among the 10 coolest on record. However, the coming period of highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and lows in the 60s to perhaps some low 70s will likely lift June’s average temperatures quite a bit. Even though a weekend cold front will break this week’s hot spell at least temporarily, long-term indications point toward more high-pressure ridging overhead and therefore a lean toward above-normal temperatures in the next couple of weeks. June may well end up having a cool half and a hot half and average somewhere fairly close to normal.
June 18, 2012 - 8:33 AM
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I may need to back up on one thought I posted yesterday. While a cold front will break the heat some by the weekend, there are some growing indications that next week will be even hotter than this one over much of the South and East. Welcome to summer.
Just took a peak at the Intellicast Radar Summary and it showed the cell tops over ROA pushing 45K feet. No hail here at Blue Hills Dr but some good cloud to ground lightning to the NW.
.75 inch very quickly at Roanoke Regional in that storm. Doug Griggs called me to let me know someone on his mail route in NW Roanoke got over an inch in 40 minutes. I watched storm roll in from high point in SW Roanoke County.
Nary a drop in Wytheville.
Another 0.25″ here. It basically went north of me. Still a good rain for the day at over 0.40″. Salem got hammered seems like, but that’s expected since the horsey show is in town.
Now you folks in the Roanoke Valley are becoming rains hogs and I have been accused of that before. Now lets share like good citizens are supposed to do and send some rain our way here in far SW VA.
Mr. Griggs, I suppose the best way to answer your question is for you to put yourself on Hatteras Island after using a ferry to get there. Now a hurricane is forecast to smack HI. An evacuation is issued. You have, maybe 48 hours to get off the island. NC 12 heading north isn’t an option since the temp. bridges across the breach haven’t been built. The ferries only carry 40/50 cars per trip which will be about 2-1/2 hour from Hatty to O’Coke. Then you got to get off O’Coke Island. Now you got to take the Swan Quarter ferry to get off O’Coke. The emergency route ferry from Stumpy point will be shut down when seas hit around 4/5′ on the sound. How many vehichles have to get off the island? When the ferry system is closed, you is there, like it or not. And the man don’t/can’t afford to let that happen. No need to go into why hasn’t 12 been re-routed in a more friendly location. Ask the DOI, EPA, NPS, SELC, DOW and every other enviromental group, and your president who is da man why first. BTW, do a little googling on the whys first.
Make that around 45 minutes from Hatty to O’Coke.
Well my golf game got rained out up in Floyd. Heavy rain and lightening. By the time the lightening moved off, the course was unplayable due to all of the standing water. Also, the cell out in Carroll CO. was moving in.
Nuts.
Thanks for posting my comment, W. Wizard. Yes, it was raining cats and dogs and geese and ducks and you-name-it between 1:30 and about 2 PM. Huge puddles developed in just a few minutes. This was in the NW corner of the city of Roanoke, on Showalter Road, and 4900s and 5000s of Northwood Drive, NW. I owe still another big thank you to Mother Nature, because it didn’t really rain on me once last week while I was delivering walking routes, but when the heavens opened this afternoon, all I had to do was put on my raincoat to cover my right arm while I delivered a mounted route. Man, was it ever raining hard!
We got some action at our home, too, including three lightning strikes that Nancy said had nearly simultaneous thunder. We lost power for two minutes. If this had happened 4 or more years ago, or especially when Blondie-Boy was very young, Nancy said that we would have to scrape him off the ceiling. We got a slightly disappointing 0.45 inches here … I was hoping for 3/4. But as Mick Jagger sang: “YCAGWYW ….”
Those roads I listed were very close to the border with Salem, about 1/2 mile north of Melrose Avenue, NW.
We had a nice gully washer about 2:30 this afternoon. Folks near the Town of Floyd got a lot of rain also. We received “0.56″ inches this afternoon.
The storm arrived just in time to keep Roanoke below 80 for a high today, only reaching 78. That’s 5 days in a row — the first time that’s happened in June since June 10-14, 2003. By comparison — June 2010 had only 1 day the entire month that didn’t make 80, a single day with a high of 79.
Nate – saw your post about the rain af the golf course this afternoon. It seemed like the dark skies just hung south of us over the town of Floyd and the rumbling of thunder went on and on. Not a good day to be on the course.
My gauge in south Roanoke County shows about half an inch. A couple of tree-blown-down reports in the northern half of the Roanoke Valley, where it appears the brunt of the storm occurred.
6-10 and 8-14-day temperature outlooks from CPC similar, with core of heat in central US, a pocket of cool in New England, and low-end leaning toward hotter than normal for us. Also showing drier than normal.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
If this verifies, one thing this could lend itself to is occasional backdoor cold fronts sliding southwest from New England bringing cool breaks and storm potential for a day or two here and there within the warmer setup.
wd, thanks for your reply. But I am away from my maps of NC. Isn’t Hatteras Island NE of Ocracoke? If I was on Hatteras, I would head north toward Nags Head, not SW to Ocracoke.