UPDATE 11 PM, 6/28: Southwest Virginia has joined the growing heat wave after cool mornings earlier in week
UPDATE 11 PM, 6/28: Roanoke’s high hit 97 on Thursday, the hottest day since last Aug. 4. Blacksburg reached 90, which was only 1 degree off the record June 28 high of 91 set in 1954. Expect very similar temperatures on Friday, perhaps 1-4 degrees warmer — which does make 100 a possibility for Roanoke. Roanoke has not had a 100-degree day in June in 53 years, so that would be quite a noteworthy event if it happens Friday or Saturday. Record highs for June 29 are 101 for Roanoke (1934) and 92 for Blacksburg (1954) . The heat dome that has brought some 110+ temperatures as far east as Arkansas is continuing to expand eastward, and that will continue bring extremely hot air into much of the Southeast, Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic regions. Westerly wind blowing down the eastern slope of the Appalachians will help the heating process. END UPDATE
Massive wildfires in Colorado … major flooding in Florida.
Meanwhile, Southwest Virginia had another postcard late June day with sunny skies and low humidity. Morning lows were downright chilly in many spots, with lots of 40s west of the Blue Ridge. Blacksburg dipped to 47, only 4 degrees above a record low for June 27, while Roanoke bottomed out at 54, only 5 above a record low for the date. Lynchburg and Danville each set new daily record lows at 50 and 52, respectively. The afternoon warmed up more than the previous day … 80 at Blacksburg, 87 at Roanoke, within a degree of normal at each site … but humidity readings were under 30 percent at times.
Tropical Storm Debby, the cause of the flooding in Florida, has diminished and moved out to sea. But the hot, dry high that is fanning those fires in Colorado and pumping temperatures above 110 in Kansas is expanding eastward, toward us.
After another cool start in the 50s to low 60s, Thursday looks to be the start of a several-days heat wave for Southwest Virginia, with most locations besides the higher ridgetops getting into the 90s, at least the upper 80s. A light westerly wind blowing over the Appalachians, and then compressing and drying as it blows down the eastern slopes, will add to the heat, and may be enough for locations like Roanoke to reach the mid to upper 90s. By Friday through Sunday, a few 100-plus degree readings will be possible, mainly areas below 1,500 feet in elevation, generally from the Roanoke Valley south and east. Humidity will remain low for the first couple of days — it will be a “dry heat,” at least at first — but will slowly build this weekend, though it’s unlikely to become stifling in itself. A few pop-up storms will be possible at times over the weekend, induced by terrain or weak upper-level disturbances, and there is some chance that storms that develop in the Ohio Valley north of the heat dome will form clusters that could slide down the eastern side of the ridge toward our region. Hard-to-predict showers and storms, or the cloudiness produced by the time, often prove to curb our region’s heat waves just a tad. We’ll see if this is the case.
It appears likely the hot pattern will continue through the Fourth of July. After that, there is perhaps some indication of the heat dome shifting back to the northwest and the East emerging into more normal temperatures.
June 27, 2012 - 9:45 PM
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I did not get a chance to post our lows for Weds. morning – 41 up here on the ridge. I am guessing Blacksburg will hit 92 on Sat. and Roanoke will hit 95.
Kevin, I can’t remember if I mentioned before about the mountain photo on your blog but that is the Buffalo Mt. in southern Floyd Co. on your right. It looks like the view from my neighborhood – I am somewhere behind your left shoulder and the Doppler radar is to the right behind the photographer.
If you’re talking about the mountain photo with my picture, it’s actually a fog shot over the Roanoke Valley and the mountain to the right is the McAfee Knob end of Catwaba Mountain. I’ve seen the full frame, definitely Roanoke Valley from Mill Mountain looking northwest.’
But Buffalo Mountain kinda slumps over in a similar manner, so I can see where you might think that.
Ahoy, Matt, please post your comment about inviting guesses for the highest temp reading this weekend. I guess you meant for Roanoke Regional, but let’s do Blacksburg, too. I will go with 98 on Saturday at RRA, and 93 also on Saturday for Hokieburg. Almost picked 99 and 94, but will go with the above. and I agree that no locations west of the Blue Ridge will reach 100 this weekend, but I do think one spot west of US 29 will. Martinsville.
This is fun ….
Doug — I would guess 98 for Roanoke on Saturday too as the highest. Would go only 91 for Blacksburg. Also agree that Martinsville hits 100 — west of US 29, but part of Southside.
Matt picked 97 on Saturday (Roanoke) on the last thread and asked for others to throw out their best guess for highest temperature and when it will happen during this current heat wave (which I will define as ending July 4)
Kings Weather has 41.2 this morning. Good, I have all 14 of my airconditioners on/open to cool the house down (66 right now) with the 90 coming later today. This is gonna be one of those rare weekends I’ll wish I had AC. Ah, but then that would only make me soft, right?
I’m planning a campout at Mt. Rogers (Grayson Highlands) Friday & Saturday. Do you think the heat be stifling or tolerable up there?
At Mt Rogers elevation (nearly 5800 feet), it might not even make 80. Probably won’t make 90 even at lower elevations of park, down to 4500 feet. You should be fine up there, especially at night. Be aware of afternoon thunderstorms, though. Always a greater risk of storms, and lightning strikes in those elevated open areas, compared to lower elevations.
Be sure to pack sweatshirts for Mt. Rogers. The all-time high temp at nearby Grandfather Mtn., NC is only 83! I doubt it gets much above 75, at least on the summit of Mt. Rogers this weekend.
So much for the short lived heat spell, after our 3 days of 100 degree heat the weather channel has us mid 90s through next week! Looks like the summer of the last few years is back! Where for art thou cool front? LOL
I don’t think remember anyone saying this would be a short-lived hot spell. Looks like at least above-normal heat through at least July 4th.
As of this am the NWS forecast for Washington Co was 100 degrees on Friday and Saturday. They have now gone back to 98 both days. I seriously doubt that it will make it to that level here but I could be surprised. The NWS in Morristown, TN tends to overestimate our temps in summer and underestimate them in the winter. No mention of those storm clusters from the Ohio Valley. Guess that ‘dried up’. Stay cool.
Ichthus: Even though it will be cooler up on Mt. Rogers, keep in mind the ultraviolet radiation will be worse in those open grassy areas at higher elevations. You can get a nasty burn!
Storm clusters are very iffy, Michael. There will be some, but may or may not move into our region. Farther north than you seems more likely at this point, but I’ve often seen them dive southward into far SW Va. and then E. Tenn.
Thanks for the tips about Mt. Rogers. Looks like a great place to escape the heat!
While we were trying to handle 100f plus yesterday
I was at work perusing what it was like in New Hampshire
in the “Venturi Tube”
MWN (Mount Washington)obs had 46 degrees later afternoon..and winds gusting over 50kts. A light jacket anyway.
Kevin…. when is the next legitimate chance of rain? Is there anything on the horizon or are we entering the inevitable dry part of the year where it goes weeks without rain….
About Mount Rogers: also watch out for snakes, if they have any up that high. If they would ever be out up there, this is the weekend for that. According to the Chinese calendar rotation, this is the Year of the Dragon. Maybe in China and Taiwan, but for me this is definitely the Year of the Snake. Saw another one Tuesday afternoon as I was backing the car into my driveway. I immediately stopped, got out, walked slowly back to where he was at the end of the driveway near our house. Gorgeous little 2-foot-long black snake, no shiny skin (therefore he had not recently shed and might be “grumpy”). He slowly slithered under a rhododendron bush near our central AC unit and I left him alone. I wished him happy hunting in eating insects.
By the way, a week or so ago someone posted that snakes become scarce during hot weather, at least in the middle of the day. That goes directly against what I have been told. That the hot weather brings them out. Also, their striking time is super fast in hot weather, whereas when it is cool their metabolism slows down and when they do strike, it is not nearly as fast a strike. I saw this latter fact for myself in a demonstration at a reptile tourist place in Florida decades ago.
Sorry for the non-weather comment, but in a way this is about something that gets affected by the weather (temperature).
What a gorgeous day it is! Very pleasant and not too stifling. *sigh* I guess it ends tomorrow.
Doug,
I agree with you about how the heat makes snakes alot more agressive.When it gets this hot, copperheads in particular go to the creeks to cool off but their disposition gets really nasty.I’ve actually had them charge at me and make me use the bush axe.
Well,from 3 different weather sewrvices,(NWS,Accuweather,Weather.com) we have officially MORE than doubled our thermometer reading here in Galax,from wednesday morning. 45 as the low and now 92,92,and 93 depending on the service!! Over 90 in Galax (or Woodlawn,where I live at 2650′) is HOT,people…
Roanoke high of 97 through 5 pm, Blacksburg high of 90,
A lot of the country is in drought. I wonder how this compares to some of the dust bowl years?
http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
Hey, joe of Dallas, I have a question for you. Local tv meteorologist Brent Watts came on WDBJ7 at 5:20 and said that the dew point in Roanoke was 52* Fahrenheit. I believe him, because although it is very hot here, it is not yet a tropical, high humidity heat. I guess it doesn’t qualify as desert dry, because I have heard they get incredibly low dew points there (in Ariz., New Mex. and the southern Calif. desert area). When the big D gets to 98 and higher, are your dew points typically in the 40s, or 50s? I realize that they probably vary some depending on the airmass, but “on average” what would you estimate? This is definitely not tropical heat (which I consider very humid), but it ain’t desert dry, either. Is it typical Dallas semi-dry?
Hey, does anyone out there in blogland have an account with Dave Tolleris’ website? He is often fabulous at predicting longer-term changes to weather, as he was last late November and early December, maintaining that the specifics were not in place for any long-term cold spell in most of the USA for the foreseeable future. THAT WAS OUTSTANDING COMMENTARY. I wonder what he is saying about the last 21 days of July. And August.
Kevin, a comment about your comment #10 today, saying at 9:51 AM that “I don’t think (I) remember anyone saying (that) this would be a short-lived hot spell.” Well, not exactly. But you did comment back on June 24th at 10:01 AM that “I definitely don’t see any indication that a weekslong heat wave is going to set up.” That key small “s” in weekslong is saving you right now. Do you still think that temps will fall back below 90 for at least several days after July 10th (at the latest)? Bunches of us hope so.
Note about a feature on WDBJ7 starting next week that some of you might find interesting. It is called “HOT JOBS.” Folks who have to work outside in the heat. It will last at least a week, starting on Monday, July 2. First segment will be a job that definitely gets my vote as one of the hottest (NO!! It is not a letter carrier!). Roofers!! Those folks have really got it brutal in the stifling heat. At least we get to create our own mini-breeze by walking, and we can pause for a moment in the shade to catch our breath if we feel poorly. I suppose construction workers will be another job they might highlight. If anybody has to do welding outdoors in the sun, those poor souls might even have it tougher than roofers. I wonder if my job profession will make the list …. I sort of think not, if only five jobs are chosen.
Nice Q you raised about the drought and the Dust Bowl, Rick. But the drought monitor of last summer was much, much worse, with the dark browns covering nearly all of Texas, much of Oklahoma, eastern New Mexico, and later on big chunks of Goergia. But if the drought monitor had existed back in 1934, I bet it would have showed a much larger area of dark brown centered in Oklahoma. And D4 would not have done justice to the incredible, mind-boggling dryness of Oklahoma in those years. More like D9, for “Once in 500 years drought.”
A bit of trivia about 1934. It, not 1999, was the hottest year of the 20th century in the U.S. From a NOAA chart cited in Michael Crichton’s “State of Fear.” But nearly every year in the 1990s was in the top 12 or 15, I am pretty sure.
The Chapel made it to 91 this afternoon around 4:30. Tri-Cities Airport did the same as Roanoke Regional and went to 97. I expect we may go a bit higher tomorrow and they say the humidity is coming too. A little rain along with it would be nice. Watering flower beds and the garden now but they are holding up good as long as the water flows. Maybe the updated weather forecast in the morning will include some snow flurries or light frost but I doubt it.
Ok, so any relief in sight for this summer mess! Meaning will we see another day in the 80s within the next month? Would sure love to see it cool off by the 3rd weekend in July for our Member Guest down in Giles. What does the long range say Kevin?
Long range holds some promise for a moderating trend (not going to call it “cooling”) shortly after July 4 as a low pressure trough in the Pacific Northwest may cause the “heat dome” high in the central U.S. to push more northward and back up westward a bit, allowing some cold fronts to slide southeast over the ridge into the East. I think we could get back to fairly normal highs in the 80s during that timeframe.
I just put up a short update to the last blog post. I hope to get an entirely new blog entry up sometime early Friday. Was on the road to Charlottesville and back and am quite tired. Charlottesville was similarly hot to Roanoke on Thursday — 96.
So much for a negative and decreasing NAO helping out this time of year. NAO has been consistently negative recently and is in a short period where it is dropping even more. But there is big heat all over the place in the lower 48. I am beginning to think that the AO has more of an influence this time of year, although it too may be a small one. AO has been meandering along the neutral level. The PNA was negative in middle of June but has climbed into positive territory. It is expected to go negative again around July 7, on the GFS 14-day outlook.
My thermometer is registering an incredible 86* now. And it is very windy, thank goodness. The temperature icon at the top of this blog page says 84, so my thermometer must be accurate. Mid 80s at midnight?? This is insane.
More insanity. It is 84.5* here now. WDBJ7 is forecasting 4 straight days (starting today) of highs of 99 for Roanoke city.
Had our first warm night in about 10 years. I define a warm night as not getting below 70. We had 71.6.
I saw a brief intro “teaser” last night on “7″ claiming that our backyard thermometers may register high during this heat wave, even in the shade. I didn’t hear the details. Well, if my backyard t-mometer is off, so if my car’s thermometer. I put it in the driveway to sit for a while, then went to Dunkin Donuts. It also registered 84, and 86 at the DD at corner of Keagy Road and Sr 419. Still very breezy in this neighborhood.
Down to 70 this morning,is it really 85 in Roanoke now or is that a error?Everyone try and stay cool today somehow!
Not an error, Mike. Morning low in Roanoke officially this morning is 82. EIGHTY-TWO! If it stands — it doesn’t get cooler by midnight tonight, which probably would only happen if there were a downburst from an unexpected thunderstorm — it appears it will be the all-time warmest low temperature on record for Roanoke.
Blacksburg appears to have had a low in the upper 70s.
Continued downsloping winds overnight, compressing warm air moving in aloft downward and warming those winds further, is the reason.
Will be posting new very soon.
Well, here in Stanardsville at high noon the weather channel says its a cool 98 degrees with a little warmer heat index of 109! Dewpoint is 74, just about as nasty as it can get. Oh how I wish I could relive those wonderfully cool summers of the NRV! Be thankful you folks live where you do.