Hot spell cools off after some low 90s and storms on Friday; Gulf system may become Debby
A cold front swinging through our region Friday will bring an end to the early summer hot spell. Locations from Roanoke eastward might possibly crack 90 today, but the front will introduce cooler, drier westerly winds, and provide lift for an enhanced chance of thunderstorms as it pushes into the hot, humid air. A few severe storms are possible — a few occurred on Thursday, particularly one that blasted the Lynchburg airport with 61 mph wind gusts and caused wind damage and flooding in parts of that city. Normal temperatures for late June are generally mid 80s highs/mid 60s lows for Roanoke, and near 80 high/upper 50s lows for Blacksburg. We’ll be very close to those readings, if not a bit below a few days, as cooler air from the north and west noses in over the next week or so, reinforced by two or three cold fronts making their way south and east. At some point next week we could end up on the volatile edge between hot weather to the southwest and cool weather to the northeast, which could bring some storminess to the region. But for now, it appears most of the coming week will be dry.
Something that could change the game is what has a very good chance of becoming Tropical Storm Debby in the Gulf of Mexico. A flight is scheduled to examine the developing low-pressure center on Friday. There’s not much consensus now among forecast models on how strong this system will become or where it will go. Anyone with plans anywhere along the Gulf Coast, from Texas to Florida, should monitor this storm. Whether it will directly or indirectly affect Southwest Virginia weather is highly uncertain at this time.
June 22, 2012 - 12:04 AM
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Early morning temps at RRA: 73, 74. UGH!!!
One thing I forgot to mention in this blog post: Through the first 21 days of June, Roanoke’s average temperature is 70.4 degrees. That’s running about 6 degrees cooler than the same period in both of the last 2 years. Despite the recent heat, it remains a very different June than what we’ve seen the last couple of years — and near-normal temperatures most of the remainder of the month are likely to finish it as a normal to slightly below normal month for temperatures.
Yes, great June to be thankful for. After two years of cold winters followed by hot summers, this year’s mild winter and so far cool summer is very welcome. That being said it is uber-disgusting this morning. Not so much hot in Blacksburg but the air is cloying.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA…CENTRAL
AMERICA…GULF OF MEXICO…CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA…AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY…WEATHER OBSERVATIONS…RADAR…AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED. THE 1005 MB LOW IS ANALYZED AT 22/0900 UTC JUST N
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE N GULF NEAR 29N87W THROUGH THE LOW TO OVER
THE YUCATAN NEAR 20N90W TO 17N93W. SURFACE PRESSURES CONTINUE TO
FALL ACROSS THE AREA…AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF
COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
E GULF S OF 30N E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OVER FLORIDA AND A
PORTION OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND IN THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
84W. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA…WESTERN CUBA…AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON…IF
NECESSARY.
Here’s the Caribbean Satellite visible loop.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html
This afternoon’s CCFP (NOAA’s Collaborative Convective Forecast Product:
for 1:00 PM Friday PM:
http://www.aviationweather.gov/popups/ccfp/final/image/20120622_1300_F04_final_ccfp.gif
for 3:00 PM Friday PM:
http://www.aviationweather.gov/popups/ccfp/final/image/20120622_1300_F06_final_ccfp.gif
ECFP loop:
http://www.aviationweather.gov/products/ecfp/
Storm Prediction Center link:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Could be interesting afternoon and evening for VA.
We picked up another quarter inch of rain yesterday, pushing us to over 2″ for the month. It’s taken a while, but thankfully the cooler temps haven’t turned the rain deficit into a full-blown brown & crunchy situation. And to think…we were supposed to have gotten 2″ in that big storm system a couple weeks back, but didn’t even top the half-inch mark. How’s it looking down Wytheville way, Rick?
But depending on when Debby forms and where she goes, that could make a lot of the rain issues in the southeast take a backseat for a while. The Savannah area seemed to be doing fairly well when we were down there, but I know many other places are in a significant drought still.
Hey Doug, try 79 here in Greene this morning at 6 am! So you guys dont have it all that bad!
Looks like much of this system may leave u guys dry..
One big cell now in the SE corner of Patrick County
moving toward the NC line..
more SW of GSO..but all of this looks to be all moving more easterly.
no big stuff over in WVA firing up so much now.
Most forcasts for SWVA have it over by 2300z or 6pm-ish….Enjoy the cooler air..
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for east of Blue Ridge thru 9:00 PM Friday
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0418.html
Latest Meso Discussion from SPC:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1239.html
One area of storms in central VA through Southside down toward Greensboro. Other storms in West Virginia. Models hinted at this kinda split today. Some of the WVa stuff may affect parts of SW Virginia later. We’ll see if they make it here.
Strong storm appears to be headed in general direction of Roanoke. Here’s a radar view I clipped off at 4:14 p.m.
http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/files/2012/06/radar414pm0622b.png
I got home fairly early this afternoon, and was watching WDBJ7 a few minutes ago, when they had that “beep-beep-beep” sound and an alert from the NWS for a Severe Tstorm warning. For western half of Raonoke County, Roanoke city, and Salem. I am hoping that it will “stop by” and dump on me. But I may be regretting those words in a few minutes. CMON, RAIN!!
Better than the best air conditioner. 89.2* @5:01 PM.68.4* @5:22 PM. 67.3* @ 5:27 pm. Down to 66* now.
Mr. Griggs, I heard my squash, cukes, tomatoes and peppers say “thank you”. Close to 1/2″ so far.
The Roanoke storm split seems relatively common.
This first cold front may get a big “bah humbug.” Air will be considerably drier, but with bright sunshine on Saturday and Sunday, high may make a run at 90 anyway. I may have to back off that statement about being done with the 90s for a week. Still looks like a stronger cold front for Tuesday or so.
wd, you beat me to it. My temp was about 88 here when I returned home at 4:20 PM, and was probably still 86* at a little after 5 PM. Now? 71. I only got about 3/10ths so far, but the skies are still rumblin’. But even that modest 0.3 is “better than a sharp stick in the eye,” as my Dad used to say. I am a bit surprised that you got more rain than me, wd, but only because the radar seemed to indicate that I was at the western edge of the mini-storm. Shows what radar knows …. And I am happy that your veggies and plants are thankful.
Mick Jagger also sang, “BIYTS … YJMF … YGWYN.”
Translation from the Crazy Old Letter Carrier: “But if you try sometimes … you just might find … you get what you need.”
0.60″ sofar. And another line looks like it might move thru if it makes it over the mountains coming out of WVA.
Nice rain started just before 7:30 this evening. Hurray! Keeping an eye on that line of storms coming out of WVA and heading this way. Wondering if they will hold together.
What a hot week up here!Hit 99 yesterday at National Airport.Only dropped to 69 this morning here in Marshall.National was a nasty 82 this morning.Had a thunderstorm this evening and its now down to 70.It was much needed rain.I can`t wait for October already!Too darn hot for me!
Glad to hear of those getting decent rains. We had a light shower yesterday pm, one about midnight, one just before daylight and one this evening. Total rainfall was around .20. Neighbors just 2 miles west here in Rich Valley had a good rain last night and again this afternoon. We have been on the edge each time. First week this summer I will not be mowing. It will come, it always has. Just need to learn patience. Garden holding up but needs rains. Potatoes ready to bloom and that is when they need their moisture.
I got nothing in the rain gauge. The storms blossomed 10 miles to my east here in central Franklin County. Since it’s all winding down, I’ll shift to the tropics. I finally see a counterclockwise rotation on the enhanced infrared images. It’s just off the northernmost point of the Yucatan. I know that tropical systems have “pulses”.. in other words, they bloom and then ebb (as in eyewall replacements). Looks like Debby-to-be ebbed today and I bet she will blossom again overnight. Question is… where’s she going to go?