Hot spell could reach mid 90s Wednesday/Thursday, but it may not linger much beyond that
Now that Roanoke has its first 90-degree high of 2012 — coming after the National Weather Service’s 5 p.m. climate statement on Tuesday — it may waste no time going all the way into the mid 90s the next couple of days (Wednesday and Thursday) as the core of the hot high-pressure dome builds overhead. Even Blacksburg may push 90 degrees — which would tie a record high for June 20. (Roanoke’s highs the next two days are 101, which very likely will not be challenged). You can never rule out a few afternoon storms with this kind of heat, but underneath the stagnant to sinking air of this high pressure dome, afternoon convection will be more limited than we’ve seen the first couple of days this week. Storm chances will pick up by Friday as a cold front nears the region. Forecast models are now leaning more toward a jet stream trough digging southward by early next week, which would temper the heat considerably. Still some uncertainty at that range, but for now, it looks more like the original idea of a 2- or 3-day hot spell rather than a prolonged heat wave, at least for our region.
June 19, 2012 - 9:29 PM
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Big weather story today: Incredible flooding around Duluth, Minnesota, where nearly 10 inches of rain has fallen in the past 18-24 hours.
http://www.startribune.com/local/159690605.html
Joe, was your comment at 6:19 AM today (on the previous thread) directed at me? If so, I have some advice for you, which I wonder if you will accept. A person should NEVER assume what another individual is feeling or thinking when they post a comment. I did not post the comment about the “human” thing out of boredom, nor to “ruin” it for everyone. I was hoping that KM might pick up on it and comment that the folks at Roanoke Times in charge of this blog (at least the set-up of it) had decided to eliminate that little “feature,” which I too think was stupid.
92 high for Roanoke today. Lots of cumulus clouds in the afternoon heat blocked the sun some. 88 for Blacksburg, short of the record of 90 for the date (set in 1994). At each location, those are the hottest temperatures so far in 2012.
I was wrong about not being in 90+ degree temps today until I returned to the Roanoke area. It was 90 and 91 degrees in southern Bath County when I left the golf course, and even saw 93 in Covington about 3:30. Hot temps today all over SW Virginia.
Check out the latest GOES infrared image. Very good depiction of the high pressure heat dome over us keeping most of the clouds away.
All I know about is that there’s supposed to be some new spam-killing software now that doesn’t involve any commenter participation, like CAPTCHA or an “Are You Human?” box.
No Doug…Not especially…
Its just that I have learned
over time when something is working
well and particularly to your advantage
its often best to leave it alone.
In the airline business you tend to become
a little superstitious.
DO NOT EVER SAY WHAT YOU DONT WANT TO HAPPEN OUT LOUD.
,,,Because you know what will likely happen.
I have many examples.
…Therefore for now..Im glad someone left that box on the porch
and someone took it away.
And Kevin…was looking at early morning satellite at work..
Wilmington NC had a 6500ft deck..a bit of spin to it that trailed
up to and into ROA vcnty…as soon as the sun was up it was gone.
I dont think it ever made it into an hourly obs there.
Yes, Joe, the morning stayed clear and temps climbed quickly. By afternoon we saw lots of cumulus clouds. Roanoke has reported mostly cloudy and partly sunny the last couple of hours. Peekaboo sunshine, which became more clouds than sun, put a lid on the temperature rise at 92 after getting to 91 before 2 p.m.
Rick, that’s where the Humbolt current hits the Labrador current[cold water], [gulf stream, warm water]and makes a turn to the NE. Produces some of the richest fishing grounds in the world due to the mixing and life it carries with them. Hot verses cold.
Kevin, you check in on this one. The Labrador current hugs the coast and pushes the gulf stream NE. Thats why the coastline shows lower water temps than maybe 100/200 miles out. And also probably the reason a hurricane takes that track a lot of times, to feed on the warmer water.
Here’s a couple of maps of Atlantic currents that seem to show what you’re talking about, WD:
http://www.bigmarinefish.com/currents.html
That confluence of currents can also create a situation sometimes where a tropical storm feeding on hot waters to the south can get absorbed into an extratropical storm over the colder waters to the north — i.e. the “Perfect Storm” of 1992.
Thanks Kevin. Never saw that clear a map showing how it works.
Miami was a buttkicker today,,
Torrential straight down rain in
a pronounced band moving SE-NW,,,
many diverted flights…made for a bad morning.
On the other end of the spectrum..hot temps in NYC
made it necessary to stop one of my flights short
in Nashville today..
Not many passengers were loving me today.
Tomorrow …long hauls…oh boy.
WD…My take is the path a hurricane takes
has almost everything to do with mid
and upper level winds..especially as it moves away from mid latitudes.
Steering I dont believe has much to do with ocean
currents..
Just my take on it.
Heres an example of how winds around a Bermuda High
might affect the path.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61INL57QRm4
A Capt’n I fished with out of OI had swordfished with one of the fellows that went down on the Andre Gail. Called the Halloween storm.
Had a brief shower about an hour ago. It dampened the dust for now. It was hot here this afternoon but I am not sure what the high temps ended up being.
So much for 87 being the hottest temp of the summer in Blacksburg, but I must say the 88 today with the nice breeze and relatively low humidity never really seemed that bad. The summer micro-climate west of I-81 and above 2,000′ never ceases to amaze me. And, the old-timers in the NRV who complain this is hot, really need to appreciate how pleasant it really is here. Blacksburg was a full 10 degrees cooler today than DC (98), and NYC (98), and I believe Boston too. I swear the northeastern megalopolis is the most miserable place to be in the United States in the summer time. Thank god for the Blue Ridge!
At 8pm tonight Blacksburg was 75 degrees, while Reagan National was 93. Incredible difference. Not to beat a dead horse, but I might lose my mind the next time I hear someone complain about the heat around here.
Definitely, as Joe says, mid/upper-level wind patterns are the primary steering mechanism for hurricanes. High pressure systems are the big bullies in the playground, pushing hurricanes around. But of course there is some truth to some tropical systems seeming to “seek” the warmer waters, or even having circulation centers redevelop over warmer water.
Agreement time. wd, I agree with your theory about the path hurricanes often take once they start to move anything east of due north once they reach a location just east of the Outer Banks area of NC (by the way, for some crazy reason I despise the acronym “OBX” for the Outer Banks, but that is my problem … for those of you who like it, please continue to use it). But some hurricanes do not take that path, so it is not an automatic. We have all observed over the years that once a trop storm/hurricane does start heading way offshore to the NE and even ENE, it starts racing like Secretariat. That linkage may be even stronger (the speed with which the storm moves) than the direction.
Blacksburg Mike, I agree with what you said mostly, and particularly once a heat wave does get established over the megalopolis in comparison to Blacksburg/ most of the NRV. You were even cooler by a bit that where I was, in a valley west of the Homestead. I had almost continuous sunshine today, and very little wind, so that may have explained why it got toasty where I was on the Jackson River Road (Virg. State Highway 687). I wonder what the high temp was in Hot Springs? Kevin, do you know? It would be nice to know also what the high temp was at Ingalls Field (elevation about 3700′) and at Bath County High School, right in Hot Springs. I would guess that Ingalls Field would be at least 3 degrees F cooler.
Unfortunately the Hot Springs Ingalls Field observations stopped functioning online at 9:55 a.m. today when it was 73 degrees.
The acceleration of hurricanes northeastward into the open Atlantic often has a lot to do with the interaction of increasingly strong upper-level winds as you move into more northern latitudes. To some extent, though, boundaries between warmer and cooler areas of ocean water can provide tracks for storms to move, expecially after they become extratropical.
Blacksburg Mike, I do disagree in part with what you commented about the megalopolis. It has to do with the northeastern corner of the m-polis, Boston. Yes, Beantown can get very hot, and it seems that they have had more heat waves in the past 10-15 years that when I was growing up and in my 20s, but Boston can also get cooled off by an east wind which knocks the stuffing out of the heat. But it is a very local thing. I remember my Dad coming home to our suburban home in Melrose (7-8 miles due north of downtown Bosstown) sometimes and we would be in the upper 80s or low 90s, whereas he would say he had needed his suit jacket on walking to the North Station trains. Boston Red Sox great Ted Williams claimed he “lost” some home runs late in ball games at Fenway, because an east wind would hold up his long drives to right field.
Joe, thanks for your reply above.
NON WEATHER RELATED. I am particularly “aware” of the really bad …. escalation of tempers that can result when someone (nearly always a guy, by the way) makes the following ENORMOUS mistake (IMHO). I once saw it happen when I was delivering mail to a business, but I have seen it several other times, too. Person A has said or done something to really anger Person B, and says “I’m sorry.” Which may or may not be sincere, but at least Person A said it. Instead of accepting the apology, or at least remaining quiet, Person B goes off the deep end and angrily replies, “NO YOU’RE NOT!!” In the particular instance I witnessed, Person A got super angry himself and threw a punch at Person B!! Others quickly stepped in to end the fight, but it was incredibly tense. All because Person B assumed what Person A’s state of mind was.
Will comment on this same map in a new entry later … but it looks like the Northeast is going to be THE place to be if you like cool temperatures the next couple of weeks.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
Arrived home around 5 pm and the temperature on the front porch registered 85 degrees. Finished rolling my hay this evening. Showers moved all around us but only a few drops fell. Now I hope it pours tomorrow. We really need the rain now. I have one more field of hay to go up but will wait until after the rain before mowing it down. Garden looks good but needs rain now.
Doug-believe it or not, Blacksburg has a cooler 30 year average summer temp than Boston (at least versus Logan Int’l). For June 20th Blacksburg’s average temp is 69 and Boston’s average temp is 70. It may only be by one degree, but who would think that Blacksburg is “typically” cooler than Boston in the summer? I have also noticed over the years, that in VA when a heat wave is on, the NWS rarely (if ever) issues heat advisories/warnings for any counties west of the Blue Ridge Pkwy in our part of VA, while all the counties to the north and east are covered by such advisories. Again, the Blue Ridge almost serves as a buffer to keep the worst of the heat at bay. My comment about the megalopolis being so hot in these heatwaves generally refers to the I-95 corridor all the way from DC up to Boston and everywhere in between — just a miserable place to be in the summertime. Folks around here just really don’t know what hot is. We’ve really got it made!
1. Thanks, Kevin, for posting those CPC multi-day forecasts/outlooks.
2. RATS!! Guess who will be in southern New England for about a week starting Friday, July 6? I bet the cooler air has exited “Stage Right (Northeast)” by then. But even “normal” temps for them are a bit cooler than Roanoke normals and the lowest elevations of SW Virginia.
Yes Bburg Mike,,,and dont I know it.
I grew up that area and have suffered
Dallas summers since 87..
from 1981-2010 ..averages..
Jun avg high 91.6…Jul 96.0 .. Aug 96.4
hottest for Jun 113 Jul 110 Aug 112
we-ve also had 111 in Sep and 106 in Oct.
People get cabin fever there in Feb..
Here it starts in June after the ground bakes all the spring
rain out.
Thanks, Mike, for the info/comparison about Blacksburg and Boston. But what about the normal high temps for each city? Boston’s mean could be higher without having the normal high temps being higher. Being on the coast, I could easily believe that Boston doesn’t get the low temps in the 50s and low 60s as often as Blacksburg. If you know that data about the normal highs for each city, please reply. I can “guesstimate” the normal highs for Blacksburg from data on one of my bookmarks. Looks like normal high for July 1 would be close to 80, and probably peak around 82 on/near July 20 or a few days later. Kevin, please chime in if you know.