Some spots in SW Virginia may double thermometer readings from 50 Wednesday to 100 Friday
While Southwest Virginia missed out on showers and storms with Monday’s cold frontal passage, a violent storm rumbled through Richmond and nearby areas, with more than 100,000 customers knocked out of power by high winds. The Richmond Times-Dispatch is following the aftermath of the storm. Thankfully, Richmond will get an unseasonably cool day and 2 nights for power to be restored — similar events have been extremely difficult in other areas when power outages are followed by heat and humidity.
We are going to experience an unusually wide temperature swing for summer this week. It is possible that some locations could experience a temperature Friday afternoon that is numerically twice what of Wednesday morning’s reading will be. Somewhere like Martinsville comes to mind, where valley effects often shave a few degrees off low temperatures in radiational cooling situations but high temperatures are a little warmer owing to its Southside location. A low of 50 on Wednesday morning and a high of 100 by Friday afternoon may be possible there. Or, an outlying rural valley area like Burkes Garden in Tazewell County could see 45 on Wednesday morning and clip 90 by Friday afternoon. As cool, dry air from Canada settles in, lows in the 50s will be widespread across the region both Tuesday and Wednesday morning (inset map shows lots of blue colors for Wednesday), with highs only in the 70s in most places (maybe a few low 80s — Roanoke, possibly) on Tuesday. We will begin a steady climb upward in temperatures on Wednesday afternoon, and return to the 90s in most locations from Roanoke south and east by Thursday.
Some national forecast maps are showing 100-plus readings both Friday and Saturday throughout much of Virginia, excluding only the higher mountain areas (roughly 2,000-feet plus). The overall weather pattern certainly favors a run of extreme heat — a large “heat dome” high pressure system building overhead from the west, possibly inducing some weak westerly surface winds that will compress the air and warm it by blowing downslope over the Appalachians. Whether the small-scale features line up (anything boosting convection to create clouds/showers would be the main limiting factor) for a rare 100-degree day or two in Roanoke (only six such days since 2000, and nine in the past 24 years) remains to be seen. Though it will be a relatively “dry heat” with lower humidity than we often see in summer, it will still be extremely hot by Southwest Virginia standards whether it makes 100 or not, with widespread 90s Friday and Saturday.
Tropical Storm Debby continues to spin off torrential rain and tornadoes over Florida, mainly. The front that passed here Monday — or more specifically, the jet stream trough associated with it — may nudge Debby eastward into the Atlantic over the next few days. After that, the high pressure system building over our heads will block it from moving north to affect our region. One bizarre scenario would see the high start pushing Debby back to the west a bit. That’s not projected, but Debby really hasn’t been about doing what anyone thinks it should.
June 25, 2012 - 11:35 PM
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Yes…with the front sagging as far south is now
I would consider that a truely bizarre scenario
working back west. Debby has some formidable steering
features in the next few days..
I think likely off JAX Daytona Beach Coast 2AM Monday..
Just my take.
At 11 PM last night I was skeptical that it would reach 59* or lower, at least at my house. It was 70*. Well, this old guy was COOOOL this morning walking the dog at 6:07; 56*!! Many of you would have been laughing at me (even more than usual). Long pants and a lined jacket. But I will be missing these morning temps by Thursday, and especially Friday and Saturday.
Kevin, any chance that the morning “low temp” at RRA on Friday or especially Saturday will be warmer than today’s expected noontime temp of 73? I wouldn’t doubt it.
Very nice evening yesterday – a nice breeze blowing – (the jet stream trough). Temperature this morning was 51, very nice sleeping weather.
We could have a day or two with a low higher than 73 this weekend, Doug. One thing, though, is that it’s likely to be a fairly dry air mass, rather than a humid one, so we probably won’t see those really warm upper 70s low temperatures we sometimes see in heat waves.
Joe: The westward return shift of Debby was picked up on one model run yesterday. Definitely not what will likely happen, but if the high to the north is strong enough and steering winds die out, it wouldn’t be impossible.
The front went through last evening with some wind, clouds and no rain. Temps at the Chapel were sitting at 49 this am and the air was most pleasant. Still dry with little to no rain in sight. Enjoy the cool and dry air while the heat builds our way later in the week.
We dipped to 54 this morning, which was perfect for removing a nest of wasps that had located on our patio umbrella. The cool temperatures kept them from stirring much, whereas yesterday morning in the upper 60′s they were substantially more active and got agitated when we started trying to remove the nest. Thank you cold front! No rain though, barely any clouds. And I’m not looking forward to the heat.
Roanoke’s dew point this morning bottomed out at 42. You won’t find many days with that little moisture in the air in late June.
Looking ahead — Roanoke’s record highs for June 29 and 30 are 101 and 104, respectively, each from the 1930s. Doubtful those will be achieved, Friday the 29th would have better chance. Blacksburg’s record highs (if the list I’m looking at is correct) are 92 for each of those days, from 1966. That may be reachable IF the heat maximizes its potential.
Not even close to record lows Wednesday AM — they run mid to upper 40s for Roanoke and low 40s for Blacksburg this time of year.
On another note of interest: Roanoke hasn’t had a 100-degree day in June since 1959.
Unbelievable how cool it felt this morning. Feels like the perfect football weather. Yes, I’m itching to see the Hokies take on the gridiron again.
Like OJ, I’m dreading the heat wave, especially with our ac on the frizz, refusing the blow cold air in the house. Hopefully, we have someone come and take a look.
I enjoyed the 44.1 at our nearby Kings Weather Station this morning……..but rain would be much better.
I’m really surprised that there weren’t storms when the front passed through, considering how cool this air is today.
will be interesting to watch the interaction of the front
and Debby this afternoon at work,
right now the heaviest precip is along the front around
the Jacksonville and coastal vcnty.
Looks like itll be bettrer to plan flights over the west side.
turbulence over SE Georgia is fairly significant above 30000 ft.
Trevor, I’m getting antsy for the football season to kick off too…though probably for other reasons (at least initially). Hope you can get the AC squared away though…a friend of mine had their heat pump quit and they’re waiting for the replacement this week. <aybe yours is a switch or relay…something simple!
One weak tornado (EF-0) has been confirmed in Goochland County with the Richmond-area storms on Monday. The vast majority of the damage was caused by straight-line winds, apparently, but it’s possible a couple more of these short, weak tornado tracks may be confirmed within the larger wind damage area.
http://www.nbc12.com/story/18885686/nws-confirms-tonado-hit-goochland
I just took a detailed look at our kwanza cherry tree that bloomed so beautifully back in late March …. a few of the leaves have turned yellow and dropped off. So I am employing that nasty four-letter word … HOSE … to remedy that problem. I have several brown spots in our front yard. I have a feeling that most of the yard will look that way by Sunday or Monday if we don’t get lucky and get a shower or three.
Rick of Dryville and Michael H of Washboard County, if my yard is already showing some signs of stress, what do your yards look like? Cannot be looking good …
My wife and I ascended to Tinker Cliffs this morning. Days like this in summer don’t come along very often. Visibility up there had to be at least 30 miles. We could see all the way to Blacksburg. When we started up via the Andy Layne Trail at 6:30, we needed sweatshirts and needed them again at the top of the mountain.
The view to the west took us beyond Potts Mountain. We could see beyond Windy Gap to the east. Awesome awesome day to be on top of THE mountain.
Debby did affect Va weather for me at least this evening.
Several large aircraft reported severe turbulence
above 30000ft from Pulaski eastward to the coast.
The combined effects of the frontal boundry and the advancing
gradient of Debby and directional shear made for rough
air over the area.
Some large plumes of cirrus over GA/SC earlier in the shift.
Will be interesting to see if u guys get any upper air cirrus blowoff
in the next several days. It was beautiful to look at on the satellite
view.
Burrr………41.5 at the nearby Kings Weather Station
And now that I have emphasized the cold, I wish I would have picked Saturday June 30 as the hottest day in the summer contest.
Doug, my yard is brown in most areas. Still some green in the shaded areas and it is a bit shaggy since it has been two weeks since I mowed. Flower beds are taking a hit and needing frequent watering. Garden is fairing OK but that is with the sprinkler going keeping it alive. Our pastures are of most concern. I have an alternate location to move my cattle but many are now feeding out hay. Second cutting of hay looks slim without more rain. Noticed on the drought monitor that far SW VA is now in the abnormally dry category and I am hoping we do not progress further toward drought.
43 degrees this morning in Woodlawn…like a nice spring morning! I bet we do double our temperature by thursday and Friday!! I’m on call this weekend so bet I see a heatstroke dog or two…have plenty of shade and water for your pets!!
It isn’t taking things long to dry out. I was out of town for a long weekend, came back to find all of my veggies wilting.
The NOAA map I posted with the blog entry was right on the money for Roanoke’s low this morning — 54. VT Airport got down to at least 48, so the official NWS temp may have been in the mid 40s. Lynchburg and Danville set record lows for the date at 50 and 52 respectively. Will either of those double that temp by the weekend? I’m sure the low-mid 40s sites will.
Interesting notes on Debby, Joe.
Debby is a tropical depression over northern Florida now and is expected to get fully caught in the jet stream trough and get carried well out to sea over the next several days.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents
No model handled it perfectly, but you have to give the GFS a nod over the Euro on this one. Doesn’t seem like I get to say that much.
I forgot to report my temps this am. As of 7:20 am, the front porch thermometer was registering a pleasant 46 degrees.
Looks like whats left of the center of
circulation of Debby is just off C
sorry…
Whats left of center of circulation
of Debbvy is just off Cape Canaveral /Daytona
area..mostly just a mishmash of cb-s now
and the higher tops are aassociaed with
the cold front. Even last evening the front was stealing
most of the energy
from Debby.
Super evening at work…lots of time to watch looping radars/satellite.
..just running out of flight crews…end of the month.
We in Goodview won’t get doubled up this weekend…only made it to 54.4 this morning. Unless something strange happens, our monthly precip will be 1.98 (over an inch less than Roanoke) but our yearly is just a wee bit higher at 17.82.
Kevin:
Saw your post about the EF0. Hickory Hill Road/County Line Road is about 9.5 miles as the crows fly to my WNW. With the ESE path of the cell, it came pretty close to us, about a mile away to the north.
Here’s a couple of links to the Richmond storm from WWBT TV 12 Richmond. Of note, the guy from Capital One that shot the apparent funnel cloud that is shown near the end of the clip, Capital One’s offices is 1.5 miles due east of Casa De Quagos. He was facing due north when he shot this:
http://www.nbc12.com/story/18888789/people-in-rockville-work-together-to-clean-up-after-storm
WWBT’s photo gallery of the storm and its wake:
http://www.nbc12.com/story/18875154/severe-weather-damage-across-central-va
In the photo galleries, you will notice a baseball stadium (The Diamond where the Richmond Flying Squirrels play). There just happened to be a game playing at the time of the storm with about 4500 in attendance.
There’s a video out there of the ball park when the storm hit. I think Dave Tolleris has it on his FB site at wxrisk.com
Heres a fairly good satellite image of Debby remains
starting to move off east Fla coast.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/flash-avn-long.html
Interesting that estimated tornado winds were 80 mph in Goochland County but estimated straight-line wind with the wider damage around Richmond were up to 100 mph. The popular assumption is that tornado winds are always stronger than any other kind of thunderstorm winds. Definitlely not always the case.
Kevin,,,
100 would be twice 50 ..yes.
but would it truly be double?
If you started out at 10f ,,20f would be double.
But zero isnt really the starting point either.
Maybe start at absolute zero…-273 celcius?
Just a few mind games to ponder…
I’d be perfectly content with summer having this type of gorgeous day, not too stifling hot or too cold, just right. Unfortunately, the heat’s a-coming, and no, I’m not talking about the Miami Heat.
On a good note, the AC at home have been fixed. The missus says it was a simple fix, but was billed for $164, so for that much, it had better be working all summer long, or so help me!
Joe: You are correct that it wouldn’t be truly “doubling” the temperature — but it would doubling the numbers.
It’s also worth pointing out that doubling the Fahrenheit temperature number is no big deal in winter — low of 20, high of 40, or low of 25, high of 50, is routine. It’s a bigger deal in summer when the numbers are bigger and, typically, the range of temperature is not as wide.
Joe: I changed my headline to “double thermometer readings” rather than double temperature, because you are absolutely correct.
Roanoke has hit 87 today with light westerly winds and dry dew points creating a downslope compression warming effect. It appears our heat wave may get off to a 1-day early start with mid to upper 90s possible Thursday in the Roanoke area south and east with a similar effect. Expect upper 80s-low 90s most other locations in SW Virginia.
I saw on the news this evening that some parts of Florida have received 2-and-a-half ….. FEET of rain!!! Roads have been hit by huge sinkholes, as well as many homes. This drencher Debby and that trop storm Allison in 2001 that swamped some of the Houston suburbs have caused two of the worst, widespread flooding situations in my life. Although they of course do not rival the biblical Mississippi River floods of 1993 nor the eradication of downtown Grand Forks, North Dakota by an incredible flood in the spring of 1997. With both Debby and Allison, neither storm ever reached hurricane level, but they were systems that decided to be like very unwelcome relatives, staying and staying and staying.
Meanwhile, Colorado Springs, Colorado is being ravaged by an out-of-control wildfire. Authorities have mandated the evacuation of get this …. 32,000 homes!! Even the Air Force Academy is keeping a watchful eye on this monster. I feel like Rosanne Rosannadanna is doing a comedy routine about the Florida floods and the wildfires out west (there are 26 big wildfires raging throughout the western states): “If it isn’t one thing, it’s another. Either your Florida neighborhood is swamped with three feet of floodwater, or your Colorado town is being ravaged by a monster wildfire ….” Trouble is, it’s not funny, Rosanne.
If we could just have sent half of Florida’s rain to Colorado …
… well, maybe not half, because then you’d get flash flooding and land slides on the fire-denuded slopes. A third or a fourth, maybe.
Still betting that no “official” stations west of the beautiful Blue Ridge check in with 100 degrees during this heat wave. Really think the triple digit heat will stay where in its appropriate place: Inside the Beltway, the greater Richmond area, and Southside, (maybe the route 29 corridor and other points east as well). Also, think we will be pleasantly surprised by how relatively “dry” the heat will be – especially with nice westerly winds to at least make it feel tolerable for folks west of the Blue Ridge.
I’d give Roanoke a 40 percent chance of hitting 100 officially in the Friday-Sunday period. Blacksburg, virtually zero chance, considering it peaked at 99 in the infamous 1983 heat wave. Core of heat dome isn’t positioned close enough to give Blacksburg a significant shot at its first 100 in recorded weather history.
Should definitely be a dry heat, but humidity will build slowly through the weekend, though never to extreme levels. As it builds, though, the chances of a few heat-breaking showers and storms go up. Also possible we get some storm clusters diving southeast out of the Ohio Valley.
Care to have an informal HIGH temperature guess from forum members for this weekend?? I’m on the bandwagon that we won’t hit anywhere near 100 officially. Maybe just a little fun in the midst of all of our seriousness! lol
For the record, I’m guessing 97 at ROA on Saturday as the high.
Post this on the new blog entry, Matt, and we’ll go with it.
Last night’s weather report out of Johnson City mentioned the possibility of those storm clusters out of the Ohio Valley coming down into our region. We can get some really good rains out of those clusters and I would “bake them a cake” if I knew they were coming. It would really help our dry situation here in far SW VA. I have always said that I can handle hot weather if we get rain with it but hot and dry tends to depress me. Guess I will just have to live with it since I do not control the rain clouds.