Summerlike temperatures on the way in coming week
Roanoke’s high temperature today (Saturday) failed to reach 80 degrees for the third consecutive day. Blacksburg, which has had only two 80-plus days among the first 16 days of this month, barely stayed out of the 40s for a low (50) on Saturday morning. You know those kind of temperatures can’t hold on forever in June. Summerlike temperatures are expected to return to the region during the coming week, with Roanoke likely seeing its first 90s of 2012 in the Wednesday-Friday time frame (map at left is projected temperature for Thursday), perhaps as early as Tuesday. Locations south and east of Roanoke will be in the 90s, with mid-upper 80s to the west. This will be because of an area of high pressure expected to build over the region in the middle part of next week (Wednesday weather map shows high centered almost directly overhead), allowing several days of hot sunshine and relatively dry air.
Between the current cooler regime (another sunny day of 50s lows and 70s to low 80s highs on Sunday — Happy Father’s Day!) and the coming hot one, some showers and storms may be possible from Sunday night through Tuesday as we’ll be between high pressure systems that are capping the atmosphere and not allowing surface moisture to build aloft into precipitation-making clouds. Moisture creeping in from the south, perhaps somewhat stirred by a weak cold front passing well north of us, will help feed a few showers and storms, especially during peak daytime heating over the mountains.
This will not be a long-term heat wave, as a cold front is likely to move in by Friday or Saturday of next week to quickly break the hot spell. Also something to watch is the potential for a tropical low in the Gulf of Mexico, which has been consistently depicted on forecast models, such as today’s 12Z GFS for next Saturday, the 23rd (linked here). Most model projections have favored the western Gulf for this activity. It’s something on the horizon to monitor, though still too far out to be a definite feature, and certainly too far out for any detailed forecasts.
June 16, 2012 - 5:41 PM
RSS feed 
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A YEAR MAKES!! June 2011: 9 days with highs in the 90s (!!!! Gosh, I knew it was a hot month, but I had forgotten that it was THAT hot), and another 13 with highs between 85 and 89. The LOWEST high temp was 78 on the 14th, which Kevin highlighted as duplicate high/low temps for Flag Day both last year and this. Three other June 2011 days had highs of 79. Only five mornings last June had lows in the 50s, with the 54 of June 14th and 15th tying for the “coldest” June 2011 temps.
This June: We have already had nine days with lows in the 50s (I assume this morning’s low was 59 or less). No 90-degree days. Only three days of 85 or warmer, with Tuesday’s 88 being the hottest. And one day, the 6th, did not even reach 70 (68). 8 of the 16 days have had highs below 80.
And June 2010 was worse than June 2011. 13 days reached 90, with most of them in the 2nd half of the month. Only one day, the 7th at 79, did not reach at least 80. The lows were ridiculous. The only morning in the 50s happened on the 8th at 56. 11 days had lows of 70 or more, and another 12 had lows between 65 and 69. That June 2010 was a blistering 6.2 degrees warmer than normal. Was that the hottest June ever in ROA, Kevin?
Only 1.28 inches of rain at RRA, but that was probably about 1.1 inches more than a guy named Rick got that month in Wytheville.
2010 was indeed the hottest June on record, and 2011 was in the top 10.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/rnk/climate/top10s/ROA/hiavgt06.txt
The current June average of 68.9, were it a 30-day June average, would be in contention for the top 10 coolest Junes on record. But alas, this is something of a statistical trick, since the latter part of June is usually considerably warmer than the first few days. With hot weather ahead this week, we probably won’t end up with a top 10 coolest June.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/rnk/climate/top10s/ROA/loavgt06.txt
I’m starting to love this summer A LOT!!! Doug, great info about the past two summers! It is such a contrast! I’m noticing that these heat domes aren’t taking form.
Also love the stats you posted Kevin!
Hey, Jared French, what is new in Greene County? How is your rainfall holding up?
Doug, the golf course is beautiful! The last rain we had really perked things up. Think we had about 1.25 inches. I am hoping we can get a little rain monday before this heat wave hits. I can take a 4 day heat wave ok, just not the 4 month variety of the last 2 years! The member guest up here gets underway this coming weekend, so will be nice if that cool front did follow through on friday. I will be headed down to Giles the 3rd week in July to play in the Member Guest from back home at Castle Rock, hope they are getting some good rain as well. They most always average better in the rain department then we do up here. How is Draper Valley doing, always loved playing that course in high school and college?
I remember the days of the high school regionals at Countryside and battling Glenvar, they had a heck of a golf team back in the early 90s. They ever decide what to do with that piece of property?
Doug, you think it’s been cool up your way……..if you use the Kings Weather Station near Wytheville, they have had 8 nights in June in the 40′s and the temperatures on the 3rd and 8th were 41.1 and 41.9. How’s that?
Hey, great. Got some comments from friends Jared and Rick. I will take them in reverse order. Rick, I am glad that I am not delivering mail in Wytheville. Lots of lows in the 40s? Wow. Given that my body is used to daytime temps in the upper 70s and 80s, I would be freezing to death. I played Draper this morning, and most other “goofers” were in shorts, even though the temp at 7:30 was 59. I had on a t-shirt, shirt, jacket and long pants. It was JO-JO golf for me. Jacket On – Jacket Off (while I was hitting the ball). Kept the jacket on while I was chipping and putting (mostly putting poorly today, although I got a bit better on the back 9). I brought shorts with me (to change into, in case it did get to 70*, but that never happened). Durn little sunshine, too. Jared, Draper continues to be in excellent condition (that’s an FYI for you, Jared). The greens “super” Tony is a magician. Even when I departed the parking lot at DVGC, temp had only risen to 66* at 10:40.
I stopped at the New River Mall for a brunch, and when I was on US 460 afterwards about 12:30 PM the temp was still only 68*. Temp in Salem 20 minutes later? 77.
Jared, as far as I know and can see, the former Countryside Golf Course is nothing but unmowed land. If a stranger did not know it, he/she would never guess that an 18-hole golf course used to be there. Among the public golf courses within 12 miles of downtown Roanoke, it was my favorite. Sometimes it would be in fairly good shape, such as during the moist years of 2003, 2004, and to a lesser extent 2005. It had some very good holes. The most recent news I heard about that property is that some sports fitness organization is considering building there, and I guess discussions have started with Roanoke City Council. Perhaps Kevin or someone else knows more about that. But it certainly appears that a golf course will never resurface there.
EDITORIAL COMMENT (about golf): the disappearance of Countryside is just one local example of what has been hitting the golf industry for at least the past 5-6 years, going back even longer than that in some resort areas such as the greater Myrtle Beach area. WAY too many courses were built in the late 90s and early 2000s, so that there was an oversupply and some courses would have been victims even if the economy had remained strong. But when the economy went south starting in 2008 (and is only growing very weakly even now), goodbye to hundreds of US courses. In the long run it is probably a good thing. But some of the victims were terrific courses, such as Marsh Harbour on the NC-SC border just north of North Myrtle Beach.
Another picture perfect day.
A light shower is passing over the ridge this evening. Hope it is enough to moisten the dust on the road. Happy Father’s Day to all you dads out there in weather blog land!
Rained here in Hokieburg for a short while tonight. Have been off the grid,just returned from an OBX beach trip where the wind blew hard nearly the whole time I was there, from Wednesday through Saturday, which thwarted my plans to camp at Oregon Inlet…so I camped at a place inland. Gusts were up to 40 mph and it was red flag conditions on all the beaches. Had to wear a hoodie most of the time outside because it was so cool. But actually did not mind that at all. Waves were big and the ferry was seriously rocking on the way back from Ocracoke on Friday. At least on the surface, the area seems to have recovered pretty well from Hurricane Irene. The bridge between the northern beaches and Hatteras is a temporary, military-type bridge, even now – Hwy 12 was all ripped up after the hurricane. A National Park Service employee said they had to take the Ferry to Hatteras for work for a few months after. Manteo on Roanoke Island was seriously flooded and we spoke to a shop owner there about that (and realized that it was a painful memory.) There is a historic storm warning weather tower in Manteo and it had a high water mark sign posted for the August 27, 2011 hurricane, 7 feet, 11 inches above mean sea level. We also heard that 60% of the homes in the Rodanthe area were swept away. The northern beaches like Nags Head fared much better. “Weather” is at work all the time on these islands, shifting sand and dunes, with the need for all those lighthouses – the Hatteras one needing to be moved because of the changing coastline.
Nice comment, HokieTrax. I have been to the Outer Banks area only a handful of times over the years, but I wish that man would stop trying to rebuild bridges that have been swept away by hurricanes. Another big hurricane will come along at some point in the next ten years, maybe sooner, and wipe out another bridge or three. Mother Nature is sending a huge message, but the state of North Carolina ain’t listening. I realize that having to use a ferry when folks have gotten used to a highway is a big disruption for them, but what about all the millions of dollars spent on rebuilding a bridge totally destroyed? wd, I would like very much to hear your opinion on that topic, even if you disagree with me. I am not aware of any other state that spends so much on rebuilding bridges time and time again after hurricanes destroy them. But maybe some other states do it, too.
64* and I am grateful to Mother Nature this morning. The rain held off long enough for our early morning dog-walk, but now it is coming down pretty steady. Let it rain today, blog fans!! I get to sit behind the steering wheel while delivering today, first time since the 9th. And enjoy one more day with high temps below normal …. last time for at least a week, if WDBJ7 is correct. And no more mornings in the 50s here in Roanoke during that span, it looks like.
I’ve never played at Countryside, though I wonder just how much better than land would look right now if the city hadn’t bought it. By that time, it was clear that courses were overbuilt, and ditto for housing.
Trying to strike it rich on land that borders a busy interstate, right next to a runway wasn’t smart. They would be better off letting the land go feral.
I’ve got a lot of golf to play this week. One round today up in Floyd this afternoon, and 3 rounds up there on Jared French’s course. HOpefully the weather will cooperate.
Raining pretty steady here in C’burg right now.
That was a quick 0.19″ around 7am.
Got back late last night from an extended weekend in Savannah and Hinesville, GA. Had a wonderful time and the weather was pretty fantastic for south Georgia in June…humidity was down, as were the temps. It was pretty comfortable for walking around River Street and Fort Pulaski, named for the same Count Pulaski that gave my home county its name…which I did not know until Saturday.
Got a little rain yesterday and this morning, 0.17″ as of 7am…hoping the rain holds off for golf this afternoon…last Monday we got drenched.