UPDATE 5:25 PM: Warmest morning in Roanoke history leads to 103-degree high; severe storms on the way this evening
UPDATE 5:25 PM: Roanoke’s official high through 5 p.m. was 103 degrees — the hottest day in 29 years, since it was 104-105-104 on Aug. 20-22, 1983. It’s tied for the second hottest high in June, trailing only 104 from June 30, 1936, and is the first high of 100 or higher in June since 1959. Blacksburg reached a high of 95, which is the hottest ever recorded in the month of June since records began there in 1954. Combined with very warm lows of 84 at Roanoke and 78 at Blacksburg, this is the hottest day by average temperature that either site has ever seen — but it’s possible the low temperature end of that will be affected by an area of storms moving rapidly through the Ohio Valley. Whether or not that “bow echo” storm cluster (radar image at left) moves directly through, an outflow from it may cause cooler temperatures than this morning’s lows before midnight, which would thus supplant those lows for the date. You can track it on the Radar / Future Cast at right. END UPDATE
UPDATE 3:30 PM: Roanoke has officially hit the 100-degree mark as of 3 p.m. It is the first 100 in June at Roanoke since 1959. END UPDATE
UPDATE 9:50 AM: The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has confirmed a morning low of 84 in Roanoke, which if it stands til midnight, would be the warmest low in Roanoke’s weather history by 4 degrees. However … before we etch that in stone .. the threat of evening thunderstorms appears to be on the increase, and it would probably take thunderstorm downburst winds to get it cooler than 80 by midnight. It is possible that a storm cluster may develop in the Upper Midwest/Ohio Valley today and rocket southeast, near or perhaps through Southwest Virginia. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of our region from Roanoke northward in a slight risk of severe weather for this possible. Damaging winds would be the primary threat if this storm cluster — perhaps a “bow echo” or derecho — develops. Before any of that would occur, it’ still likely to reach or exceed 100 at Roanoke. It’s already 90 at 9 a.m. END UPDATE
This morning’s low at Roanoke Regional Airport, based on the automatic observations available on the Web site linked here, was no cooler than 82 degrees (depending on when 82 occurred — it was low in 6 hours before 2 a.m., so it may have occurred before midnight, in which case, morning low may have even been warmer). The warmest low that has ever been recorded previously at Roanoke since 1912 is 80 on four different occasions in the 1930s and 40s. In more recent times, Roanoke had a low of 79 on Aug. 9, 2007, and 78 twice last summer. If this is confirmed as official, it will stick as an all-time record if it doesn’t get below 80 by midnight — which would probably only happen if there were downburst winds in an unexpected 
thunderstorm. Starting out so warm substantially increases the chances of reaching 100 degrees today, which has not happened in June at Roanoke since 1959. Widespread 92-104 high temperatures will occur today across most of Virginia aside from the highest ridgetops today. A massive dome of hot, dry air, originating in the Desert Southwest, not the Gulf of Mexico where we typically see hot and more humid air masses come from, is overspreading our region, and being forced downward by high pressure. West to northwest surface winds rotating around the hot high pressure system are blowing down the slopes of the Appalachians, further compressing and heating that air. It’s a scenario that has led to some of our hottest days historically.
Daily record highs for June 29 are 101 at Roanoke (1934) and 92 for Blacksburg (1954). Blacksburg’s record appears very likely to fall, as it’s already in the low 80s there this morning. Roanoke’s record also appears to have a better than even-odds chance of being tied or broken, now. While it has been at least 100 six times since 2000, Roanoke has only been above 100 twice since 1988 — highs of 101 and 102 on August days in 2007.
For those looking for relief — there are indications the hot high will be pulled westward and northward, allowing more of a northwest wind flow and some cold fronts, mid to late next week. But will be several very hot days between now and then.
June 29, 2012 - 7:56 AM
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The morning LOW today at 5:30 am was 74 up here on the ridge. Stay cool!
The NWS map showing the Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings really illustrates our beautiful microclimate. The map is lit up east of the Blue Ridge and west of I-79 in WV and the Ohio Valley, however the I-81 corridor and most counties east and west of the VA/WV line have no advisories for heat whatsoever (except for Staunton north to Winchester). It may be hot here in the Blue Ridge, but we really have it made, comparitively speaking.
We were sitting at 68 at the Chapel last night at 11 pm and we were in the low 60′s this morning. I remember some of those hot nights in Roanoke growing up when it just would not cool down. I know we are hot here but I am thankful for our cool nights. I saw the 80′s for Roanoke on the morning weather map out of Bristol but thought it must be a mistake. Sorry folks. Stay cool!!
Lowest temperature in last 6 hours before 8 a.m. at Roanoke was 84. That 82 may well have been late last night before the downslope winds picked up and actually warmed the temperature in the predawn hours.
I see a few high cirrus clouds outside that might shade us a bit today, but that probably won’t be enough to stop a 100-degree day in Roanoke.
I got up to feed the dog at 5:30 this morning. Normally I feed him outside, but when I stepped outside this morning the heat was shocking. I couldn’t believe it was that hot at that hour. It took my breath away. I fed the pooch inside and put ice in both his inside and outside water. I will likely hose him down around lunch time so that it is easier for him to stay cool through the hotter hours of the day. We have central air, but I do not think my ac unit will be able to keep my house below 75 with the kind of temps that are expected this afternoon. The dog and I will spend the day inside near the ac vents with extra fans running. Good luck to Doug and all others who have to work outside in the heat today. Stay hydrated!
Severe storm threat gets close to us late Saturday as a front to the north cuts into the hot dome.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
I’ve seen some mighty vicious storms erupt from 100-degree heat before.
I remember back in the summer of 1980 when I was in college and there was a heat wave. I think it hit 105 in Roanoke that week. Had tremendous severe storms every afternoon. Power was out and lots of wind. It would cool us off in the evening just to become hot and steamy the next day. I was working on a grounds crew at Blue Ridge Memorial Gardens. Now that was hot work.
Thank goodness for this air mass originating in the Desert Southwest instead of the Gulf of Mexico. At least the dewpoints are lower so that today feels more like a convection oven than a sauna…!!
Indeed Chris. Because of the lower dew points, Roanoke hasn’t even been placed in a heat advisory yet despite a projected high of 101 — heat index not expected to reach 105.
In most cases historically, our warmest overnight lows have been caused primarily by (1) high humidity buoying temperatures upward and (2) urban heat island warming, several days of hot air sinking into pavement and structures and radiating at night. Last night’s low was caused primarily by compression of a warm air mass aloft on downsloping westerly winds. Coming off an unseasonably cool period, we haven’t had days to build lots of heat in the surface, and the humidity is not exceptionally high (a little higher today than Thursday).
By the way, the Storm Prediction Center has the Roanoke area in or very near varying probabilities of severe weather risk for today, tomorrow, and Sunday.
I noted tomorrow’s slight risk in 8:49 comment, but just saw the slight risk was expanded near us for today.
Not a boring weather day.
I awoke to the sound of wind this morning around 3AM and couldn’t believe how blustery it was. I’ve seen winter storms knock down fewer twigs/leaves than I had in my backyard this morning.
Oh woe is me. I grew up in Florida and spent many summers baking my brain pan. That soured me on HOT weather. Keeping my fingers crossed for thunderstorms this weekend!
What we’re experiencing today is more like west Texas than Florida — breezy, dry heat, not stagnant, sticky heat.
This whole week is an unusual weather situation — near-record lows Wednesday, then all-time record warm lows by Friday.
But we’ll see if a storm cluster from the Ohio Valley wipes out the record this evening.
The dew point has climbed into the 60s … so now we’re kind of mixing Texas and Florida. If the winds die and the humidity climbs, we’ll slow down the temperature rise quite a bit — but it will feel miserable!
It is hot out there but there is a good breeze blowing so I am taking advantage of it and hanging the wash out on the clothesline. They will dry in no time at all and I can save some electricity.
If you are lucky to have a basement in your house – it is a cool place to hang out on a day like today.
We dipped to a chilly 71.4 just after 1 this morning. Currently it’s 97.2. Think we’ll be spending a lot of time in the water today/this weekend.
My mother lives in a sheltered valley in Roanoke County near the Franklin County line, and she had a low of 68 this morning. Geography on a very local level was a major player in this morning’s pattern of low temperatures.
Just got back from Mt. Rogers where we started the week sleeping in pajamas with temperatures in the 50′s. Best summertime views I have ever seen. I could see Buffalo Mountain in Floyd from Wilburn Ridge. Last night there as quite odd weather. Clear skies but strong and consistent wind. Never seen anything like it. Usually so calm during the summer, but it was so windy folks were forced to put everything in their tents and tie them down really well. Grayson Highlands campground was littered with leaves this morning.
How was that wind related to today’s weather story?
Wow, talk about heated wind. It’s like standing right next to a hair dryer and it is 100 times it’s size. The wind helps, but it also blows heat.
Those folks in the construction business need to stay completely hydrated as heat stroke can be deadly.
The temperature on our Rockbridge County hill is setting records for us. If we can trust home digital thermometer readings when it gets this hot, we have 102.9 in the garden and 103.3 on the porch at 3:02 p.m. The trend is +2.3 per hour.
Well folks it’s hotter than the 4th of July. Abingdon is at 96 but heat index is no higher due to low relative humidity. Weather Underground shows it is 87 degrees at Grayson Highlands State Park and I see Roanoke Regional has made it to 100. Not even the mountains are giving relief. Went out a while ago, it is hot but still not that humid here. Guess we’ll fry some eggs on the pavement for supper and sit under the tree and enjoy the cool breezes tonight. When we go below 0 this winter, we will be asking for some of this or maybe not. Hope Doug is not walking today.
Definitely reminds me of Texas weather! The vegetable garden does not like it at all. Too hot and too dry. Mulch and water look like the only help. Rain barrels went dry this morning. Kevin, send us some rain! But not too much wind, please.
Mike Scott: The wind you talk about is a huge part of this weather story. That wind whipping around the hot high and blowing up and over the Appalachians, compressing the heat in downslope flow, is why a lot of low temperatures hung up at ridiculously high levels this morning.
Diana: Unfortunately, any rain we get overnight would be fast and furious and likely accompanied by gusty to strong winds. It is definitely more of a Texas-like heat wave than the Georgia-like heat wave we normally would get.
Futurecast has the big line of storms (now entering Ohio) in the ROA area around 9pm. They are hauling fast as this morning they were near Chicago.
Let’s hope we don’t get lots of wind-caused power outages out of that with hot days ahead.
As of 4:45 PM the temperature is 104 here in Greene county with a heat index of 114! BLAH!!! Dewpoints are in the 70s. My yard looks like hell, hope we can get one of those afternoon storms. Batten down the Hatches looks like its going to be awhile before these temperaturs break!
Good grief, 100º at KHLX. Very rare to hit 100º up here.
Leo Lady and Michael Hoback, thanks for your kind wishes. The ancient letter carrier lucked out big time for this heat wave. I rode today and will ride again (like Destry) tomorrow. And probably Monday and Tuesday, too. The next day I am scheduled to walk is Thursday, on the monster, a WONDERFUL (?&*$#@!!) birthday present. I sure do hope that the temps moderate to about 90 for a high by then. At least my body will be fully acclimated to the heat.
I had lunch in a fully air-conditioned small cafe/diner at 1 PM, and it felt like my body temp dropped about a degree every ten minutes. By the time I walked out into the blast furnace, I was getting cool.
Johnny: Hillsville’s temperature got stuck on 84 this morning the same way Roanoke’s did. So you started from a higher temperature level in the morning than it almost conceivable.
Acting on the Weather Wizard’s cue, I looked at NEXRAD radar and expanded the view to “regional,” which covers all the way NW to the easternmost sliver of Indiana. Sure enough, Dayton Ohio just got hit and Columbus is about to be hit big time (or is getting it as I type this). Bright reds on the leading edge of the system. I cannot tell at this point how much of a southeasterly track they are taking. And the storms seem to be moving like an express train, not a freight train.
Jared, did you have to work all day today?? Those dew points and heat indices up there are DANGEROUS! I am so glad that Nancy and I got to depart Northern Virginia in late 1997.
Roanoke now 102 at 5 p.m. Today and Aug. 16, 2007, are the only days that have been that hot since 1988.
According to wunderground, Roanoke hit 102 and Blacksburg (airport?) is at 97. So much for highs of 99 and 94 or 98 and 93.
104 with 113 heat index here in the tornado capital of VA…yuck
Mid Atlantic could see some nasty storms later tonight from the OH/WV area.
I just took a look at the CPC 8-14 day outlook. I feel like singing. “Mine eyes have seen the glory of the coming of the norm. It is stamping out the vintage where the grapes of HEAT are stored …” The white neutral zone for both Virginia and all of New England, which is where I will be for that week. Both regions are also in the white for precip, although dry conditions are expected just west of Virginia in WV and especially KY. Now all we need is for it to “verify,” as Kevin is wont to type.
hey, Jared, do you have access to a refrigerator at your golf course worksite? Do you ever use the “frozen towel” thing? I brought one “to the street” with me, then because I was on a route fairly close to the post office, I returned later and got another one that I had stored in the freezer. When they thaw slightly and are placed on the back of the neck, they feel heavenly.
Look at what the Storm Prediction Center posted. This may or may not reach SW or Central VA but it may get close. Bigger threat if any is Saturday for same type of MCD storms. Even possibility of Derecho Meso formation of storms for Saturday. CAPES (Convective Air Potential Energy)in the 6000s in OH, IN, PA.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1310
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
AREAS AFFECTED…SERN IND…OH…WRN WV…FAR NRN KY
CONCERNING…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435…436…
VALID 292022Z – 292145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
435…436…CONTINUES.
SUMMARY…THREAT FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WITH
EMBEDDED SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST WITH FAST-MOVING
BOWING MCS FROM NWRN OH TO CNTRL IND. AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS
HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENTLY OVERTURNED TO ALLOW FOR CLEARING BEFORE
SCHEDULED WW EXPIRATION.
DISCUSSION…APEX OF BOWING LINE IS MOVING SEWD AOA 50 KT. THIS LINE
HAS HAD A HISTORY OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WITH MEASURED WIND GUSTS OF
65-80 KT AND REPORTS OF STRUCTURAL AND SUBSTANTIAL TREE DAMAGE. THIS
BOW WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE AXIS OF EXTREME INSTABILITY CENTERED
ALONG THE OH RIVER TO CNTRL OH…WITH COLD POOL/WARM SECTOR
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL AROUND 30-35 DEG F. AS SUCH…EXPECT THE
THRUST OF THE SEVERE WIND THREAT TO EVOLVE ACROSS OH THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS /ACROSS THE COLUMBUS OH METRO AREA/ AND EVENTUALLY TOWARDS
WV AND FAR NRN KY.
..GRAMS.. 06/29/2012
Hot here in Luray doing archaeology. We finished early today and most of us were pretty charbroiled bur earlier in the week was delightful for digging and camping. One person’s phone weather said 102 and mine was 92 on WeatherBug on my phone for Luray. Hokieburg showed up as 97!
Kevin@25
Surely one of the oddest stays I’ve ever had in Grayson Highlands. The wind was almost frightening, yet very warm. We could barely hear each other talk.
Kevin, what are your thoughts on the MCS/derecho dropping SE right now? CAPE and just about every other severe weather parameter is very high. Will the mountains take care of it and will it generally stay north of Roanoke? Looks to me that Roanoke may get the southern edge of it.
I don’t think the mountains will be a factor with bow-echo squall line. Storm clusters like this (mesoscale convective systems, or MCS’s) often take on a life of their own, as their motion is driven by the cool pool air they create behind them with downdrafts. Most guidance does bring at least part of that into our region later this evening. Wind damage would be the biggest threat — numerous reports of that Ohio and Indiana this evening.
Doug, we do have a fridge in the shop. I use a cooleroo (wet cloth around neck) and wear my Columbia fishing hat with the cloth covering the back of my neck. No, we only worked until 11 am today, but tomorrow is my day to watch the greens
. Just have to hang in there until that cooler weather gets here. I wonder how the Poa Annua will look tomorrow morning when I get to work.
Oh, forgot to add we hit 105 today according to weather channel. Looks to be some nasty storms heading this way if they hold together crossing the Appalachian’s. Don’t need the severe storms, but my yard would appreciate the rain!
Wind gusts in Columbus OH over 70 mph just reported 30 minutes ago:
Here’s Columbus’s METAR observation for all you aviation geeks like me out there:
KCMH 292115Z 33032G63KT 1 1/4SM R28L/2800VP6000FT TSRA BR SQ BKN028CB OVC065 22/20 A2991 RMK AO2 PK WND 33063/2107 WSHFT 2056 TSB06RAB07 FRQ LTGCC TS VC NE-SE MOV SE P0005 $
The forecast shows up to 70 knots on the TAF. WOW! Cells are moving rapidly at over 60 mph to the SE.
Line is moving thru the Cincinnati Dayton area now. Will be over Huntington/Charleston area by 7.
Charleston WV radar
http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?product=NCR&loop=no&rid=rlx
Dayton, Ohio, dropped from 99 to 69 in an hour with that storm line. For history’s sake, that’s going to wipe out all of this morning’s record warm lows if it even gets close to send an outflow boundary through. Hopefully it won’t knock out electricity for air-conditioning the next few days.
There is no reason to believe those storms will subsanitally weaken crossing the Appalachians. It’s hot and unstable on both sides of the ridges. There is sometimes a weakening as the updraft column shrinks on the ridgetops, but these storms have so much momentum, those will just be a speed bump. Biggest question is where exactly they go. Strongest winds are often in the apex of that bow.
My experience has been that the day after a storm passage like this in a heat wave isn’t quite as hot as the day before, at least in Southwest Virginia. But it will be even stickier.
Doppler Carol, this comment is of particular attention for you. At 5:20 on “7″ Brent Watts showed the model forecast for the progression of storms from Ohio and West Virginia. Most did stay north of Roanoke, but there was one cell due to hit … the northern half of Floyd County as early as 8 PM. That seems impossible for that system to travel that far that quickly, but that is what it showed. Now watch …. you will stay dry, and some other souls will get doused. I don’t know whether to root for it to come here and green up my lawn a bit, or stay away so that we keep our electricity.
Considering it’s “only” 98.3 here in Goodview, I’m going to say our high temp for the day was 102.1 at 4:35.
It’s gonna be close…thinking the southern extent will come thru between I-64 and 460 corridors coming ever so close to the Roanoke Valley. Lesser chance west of Roanoke.
That was the most “pleasant” 95 degrees I have ever experienced here in the NRV today. With a stiff NW wind all day, and humidity almost non-existant I can’t really complain. Incredible for Roanoke to hit 103! I think today was the worst of it. We should shave at leat 1-2 degrees off on Saturday, and another 1-2 on Sunday.
OK, I now have more minutes of data on that squall line invading from Ohio. It sure looks like it is headed directly for Roanoke. We will be able to tell more around 7 PM. By then Beckley, WV will have been hit, I bet.
Storm Prediction Center has included much of our area in a new mesoscale disucssion for high wind-bearing thunderstorms this evening:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1311.html
Once a severe thunderstorm watch is issued, I’ll be starting a new thread for the evening.
Here we go!
WW 438 coming out as we speak til 1:00 AM including VA!
Severe thunderstorm watch til 1 a.m.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0438.html
Will start new thread next 20 minutes or so.
Thanks Kevin for covering my tail on that. I forgot to post the link for WW 438. My bad.
Our system recorded 68 in the Catawba valley at 12:05am, then up to 84 less than 2 hours later. We topped out at 99 at 5:30pm.
WOW ITS CRAZY AT REED MTN. WERE IN THE BASEMENT THE WINDS HAVE KNOCKED OUT POWER IN ROANOKE CITY SEVERE WINDS ITS LIKE A TORNADO