Cooler than normal days this week; sticky heat, rather than extreme heat, returns next week
The weather pattern appears to be pretty well set through the weekend and into early next week: below-normal high temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s through Saturday, gradually warming to near normal in the 80s to some low 90s areawide early next week, with a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms each day as moisture overrides a stalled frontal boundary to our south. By the weekend, the front will wash out, and there will be a surge of moisture into the Tennessee and Ohio valleys that we may get in on some by next week.
Beyond the immediate horizon, the question that arises is whether there is any sign of a return to the extreme heat we just experienced. The answer, for now, is NO. But it also doesn’t look like a prolonged unseasonably cool period is upon us either. The general trend seems to be more toward a hot but not extremely hot, sticky, showery-stormy at times pattern setting up. Forecast models favor the next round of heat dome high pressure building eastward across the northern tier of states. This would effectively block cool Canadian air masses from moving southward for any lengthy periods of time, but it would also not put us under the heat dome as we just endured for several games. Rather, we would be more south of it, reaping easterly, southeasterly or southerly surface breezes (perhaps even northeasterly at times, for some cooler, damp days), depending on exactly where the core of high pressure would be at any given time. This would lead to much more moisture moving in off the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, and would bring more of a tropical kind of heat rather than the desert kind of heat we imported since starting in late June from the west. A typical pattern like that features lots of highs in the 80s to lower 90s — rarely higher than the mid 90s for Roanoke — and thick humidity with periods of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The Climate Prediction Center has Southwest Virginia leaning a little toward wetter than normal in both the 6-10-day and 8-14-day periods, and also a slight edge to warmer than normal in each of those time frames (6-10-day linked here and 8-14-day linked here) with the darker red colors over the northern U.S.
So, as of now, the prognosis would be that 100-degree temperatures are unlikely to return for the Roanoke Valley and locations south and east, but don’t expect an early taste of fall either. The heat wave is past, but the humid wave may only be just beginning. Enjoy the next few days of 70s and low 80s before hotter, sticky weather arrives by early next week.
July 10, 2012 - 10:50 PM
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About the same as Dopp Carol here in Hokieburg – .33 in my gauge tonight.
We picked up a nice 0.62″ of rain yesterday. Helpful, but more this week would be a lot better. The yard doesn’t seem quite as stressed as it had been, the rain was more of a multi-hour soaker than an immediate downpour.
I keep hoping that area of rain in far SWVA and TN will edge into the NRV to boost our rain totals this week, but it seems to have hit a wall around I-77, like usual.
It began raining here in Abingdon before lunch. Rain was fairly light but has now picked up to moderate level. Not sure exactly how much has fallen but areas between Abingdon and Bristol received well over two inches yesterday and some areas just south of Bristol, TN received 4-6 inchces with flooding reported. Local weather here is calling for at least two more days of substantial rains and then more scattered over the weekend. I am praying it will move up the 81 corridor and help all of us out.
Rain area creeping northward into Franklin County. Let’s see if it gets to NRV/Roanoke area.
Can we get the rain to Greene county? Probably not!!
Not this round, Jared. Not getting much into Roanoke County, even.
Radar shows rain coming from the southeast and then also from the southwest and they are running into each other right over Floyd. Nice shower here.
Just a few ground-dampening sprinkles in my neck of the NRV. Maybe tomorrow we can take done of that rain that is causing problems elsewhere and put it to good use where it is actually needed.
Got home to the Chapel at around 5 pm. There was .60 in my gauge. This makes well over 3.50″ since Sunday, July 1st. The world has turned back to green in one week. The NWS is calling for heavy rain to move back into far SW VA by morning with heavy rain tomorrow. Just wait, some will soon be complaining about too much rain or rain on the weekend and some of you are still waiting on enough to turn you green. We are never satisfied.
No real reason to post new tonight, as Thursday is likely to be a repeat of Wednesday — cooler than normal, some showers, better chances to south. Friday may see a wedge develop with better chances of rain and one of our coolest days since early June or even May — upper 60s-mid 70s highs IF the rain-cooled wedge sets up early enough. Then a Bermuda high will start pumping in heat and moisture moving into next week.
Total rain up here on the ridge with Weds. system was “0.22″ inches. Good to hear that more might be on the way for the rest of the week.