UPDATE 7:45 AM, 7/26: Expect a brief shot of extreme heat today; storms possible overnight
UPDATE 7:45 AM: The Storm Prediction Center’s slight risk of severe weather extends as far south to cover most of western Virginia north of Roanoke, as storms that give states north of us a potentially scary day of severe weather may sink southward overnight. They are expected to run out of the best wind flow and gradually weaken, but it’s close enough that we should keep an eye on it. Meanwhile, warm air aloft has moved in comparable to that of late June when Roanoke hit 104. If high clouds are limited today and downslope westerly winds are sufficient, we may again crack triple-digits in the Roanoke Valley and many locations to the south and east. Expect at least upper 90s in Roanoke, with widespread low-mid 90s over most of the New River Valley and other Southwest Virginia locations below 3,000 feet in elevation. END UPDATE
UPDATE 10:45 PM, 7/25: No changes. Still expecting a shot of heat on Thursday, possibly making a run toward 100 for the Roanoke Valley and locations to the south and east. Well into the 90s most other places in Southwest Virginia. And then more storms Friday and cooler weather into the weekend. Speaking of storms — the “d-word” is in play for Ohio and Pennyslvania on Thursday. END UPDATE
What passes for a cold front will slide southward through our region by Wednesday morning. The only way you will really be able to tell is that Wednesday’s high won’t go up much above what it was on Tuesday (90 for Roanoke, 82 for Blacksburg) and showers and thunderstorms are likely to be focused more to the west and south of our region than toward the Roanoke and New River valleys (which, if you think about it, isn’t much different than 
Tuesday, either). The weird twist is what is expected to happen late Wednesday into Thursday. The cold front is expected to turn northward as a warm front, which may drag some more showers and storms northward, and lead to a surge of hot, dry air on Thursday from the southwest. With westerly downsloping winds setting up Thursday as well, leading to compressional heating and drying of the air, temperatures are expected to shoot up close to 100 degrees from the Roanoke Valley southward and eastward, with widespread 90s elsewhere in western Virginia. Going from a high of 90 one day to 100 the next would be an unusual event for Roanoke. Extreme heat usually builds over a few days. Of the 48 100-degree or higher days since the establishment of the current Roanoke Regional Airport weather station in 1947, only 2 have followed a day with a high cooler than 95, and only 9 have followed a day with a high cooler than cooler than 97. Thursday also presents the possibility of a fifth 100-degree day in 2012 for Roanoke, which would be the most in any year since there were 8 in 1977.
With another cold front and upper-level disturbance arriving from the northwest Friday, and the accompanying increase in storm chances, Thursday will likely be only a 1-day hot spell and not the start of a prolonged period of extreme heat.
July 25, 2012 - 12:24 AM
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This series of maps will be of great interest to many who follow this blog and follow drought issues. U.S. drought coverage maps dating to 1896.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/07/20/us/drought-footprint.html?smid=fb-share
Well fellow bloggers, here I sit at 2:25 am at the computer when I should be sleeping. The latest in our torrential rains is coming down and the lightening and thunder told me to wake up. Clicked on the NWS website to see that we are under a Severe TS Warning. I love the sound of rain on a tin roof but this is a bit too much. We are stuck in the training effect and our drought is more than over. Not sure how much it has rained but I am sure by the time it is over, we will be adding another 1″. Well its starting to calm so lets go back to bed. Goodnight.
I don’t know about the D word, but I will be glad when we are no longer using the H-words, heat, hot, humidity.
Great piece about the d-word Kevin! I found myself saying “d-word” on FB yesterday after I was greeted by a plethora of posts yesterday morning declaring we had a d-word barreling down on us again. Caution = good; sensationalism = not so much. I appreciate your approach, one that is balanced.
Good morning. Guess what? More storms and rain last night on the Chapel. Had .80″ but areas to our west in Scott and Wise Co had between 3-4″ last night. I am ready for a slow down. More predicted this afternoon, dry tomorrow and more on Friday. Dry weekend ahead according to the weatherman for us all to dry out.
Michael: What you report is evidence of where the front resides.
I wish we did not have the heat wave a month ago. I picked July 26 for the hot day of the summer, and I might have won this contest. May I have some cheese with that whine?
And switching to precipitation, the NWS has Wytheville getting .50 to .75 today, while the HPC has us only getting .25 for the whole 5 days starting today. Somebody’s gonna miss this one.
What do we have to do to buy some rain? 0.12″ yesterday was all we got. Once again the rains split to the west and east of my house, when it looked like we’d get a solid thump. That has happened repeatedly this summer…my garden is not very happy.
And very interesting drought graphic, that was pretty neat to look at. I remember part of the summer of 1988 well. We drove up to Michigan that summer, and it was near 100 degrees, or hotter, almost every day we were there.
Nobody, and I mean nobody, was close on the date in the heat contest, provided the 104 on June 29 isn’t equalled or exceeded the rest of the summer. Just as first snow picks are usually 60 percent in December, hottest day picks are 80-90 percent in late July through August. Historically, there’s good reason for that.
But someone did predict 104 as hottest temperature for Roanoke.
I only get 30 or so entrants for the heat contest, whereas the snow contest runs about 200-250. Part of that is that schools are in session for winter and teachers know students are hyper-interested in snow, so I get lots of classroom entries. But a big part of it is just that snow interest outweights heat interest in our region.
After three different “events” Monday that brought us a whopping .05, yesterday’s two “events” brought another .02 to Goodview, or at least my part of it. We have had precip 5 of the last 6 days, yet only .25 has fallen.
To me, snow and winter weather are welcome sights…I look forward to it. I do not look forward to triple digit heat, humidity, haziness, etc. Nice clear summer days in the 80′s with lower humidity are great, and I make the most of them. But the 90′s HHH doldrums, I count as my least favorite types of weather days, worse than a cold rain in the mid 30′s.
Kevin and I think Rick, about the drought maps that you posted: A. Thanks very much. B. But so often with maps that represent data from a particular year in one graphic, do either of you (or anyone else out there) know what exactly the maps represent? Are they the drought maps for June of each year? Or the maps for the driest month or date for a particular year? And the map for 2012 seems to overplay the drought condition. Are all areas included that were even “abnormally dry?” Or allegedly the D1 level or worse? And who generated the maps?
I found out a couple of answers to my own questions, namely that the drought info on that drought map was for June of each year. And supposedly that only D1 levels or larger were included. I bet they included county/counties that were D1 or higher for any part of the month, even if they were OK or D0 for most of the month.
Being a Boston boy back in the 1950s and 1960s, I looked at what New England looked like for the mid-1960s, because I remember that 1965 and 1966 were big drought years. All of New England seems to be listed for every year starting in 1962 and ending with ’66. However, look at what happened after that: No widespread drought throughout all of New England from 1967 through 1979, although a good chunk of that corner of the nation had drought in 1971. This is further evidence of what I tend to believe strongly in as a general long-term guideline about weather in general …. that weather runs in cycles. And of greatly varying length.
As further evidence of the cyclical nature of weather, I remember that Wytheville was hit with just awful dryness in summer 2010, while I received lots of rain that summer, even more than Roanoke airport, which benefited from a huge rainfall one or two days that summer. But last summer and especially for most of this summer so far, Rick and I have traded places. And Michael “Rain Hog” Hoback even more so. He has too much rain overall, I gather, over the last 8 weeks. Leo Lady and the rest of us in the general Roanoke vicinity (and Other John, too) would love to have had half of what he has had ….
Enough of summer allready bring on the s-word!!!
Doug, we’ve somehow not fared too poorly in July, even though we’ve generally gotten less than adjacent areas, we’re still almost at 3″ for the month. We are running 2.49″ dry since mid-May though, and it really showed itself in June and early July during the heat. Right now, we’re back to green…but it feels very tentative. We’ve run shy of average 4 of the 6 months so far, and unless we catch a couple storms to close July, we’ll be shy in a fifth month. A wet March, April, and first half of May helped make up for the winter deficit, but then the summer heat and dryness kicked in almost immediately. Our precipitation has been very streaky.
Doug, you are right. We are basically dripping here and if it is going to storm at night, let it be a gentle rain and a distant rumble. The one last night was better than a night light since it never ceased and the thunder was ‘sharp’ if I can use that wording. Tri Cities Regional Airport has now reached an all time record rainfall for July (over 10′) and are nearing the most rainfall ever in a month (something near 12′). They have been keeping records since late 40′s. We have not had quite as much as them but definitly more than the folks to our East.
Accuweather addressed its use of the “d-word” for Tuesday’s long-lived squall line from Chicago to Bristol area.
http://ht.ly/cuRwP
I still prefer the 75 mph wind requirement.Not just 58 or 60 mph.
Changing subjects completely: Check out how far north in the Atlantic that the NHC thinks a named storm might get going this week.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Wow, the Storm Prediction Center is already employing the “d-word” for potential tomorrow in Ohio and Pennyslvania.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
Rick, thanks for your 3:53 comment. Did you ever read the book (or see the movie) “The Perfect Storm?” About the mingling of the remnants of Hurricane Grace and a huge cold front moving east from Canada in late October 1991, I think. That area that is circled is probably not that far away from where the fishing boat Andrea Gail went down. As actress Mary Mastrantonio declared during the movie in a radio conversation with the Andrea Gail captain played by George Clooney, “There’s a BOMB heading straight for you!!” And she was not exaggerating.
Anyone working outside tomorrow better take extreme cautionary measures. Not only temps around 100 both here but also in places S and E of ROA (and even about 95 in Hokieburg, according to Robin Reed), but also very humid. At least there looks to be some wind to go along with it.
If “derecko” was a cold piece of cooked mud turtle and weatherfolks had to chew on it, they’d spit it out and you wouldn’t hear no more about it. Funny how folks learn a new trick and can’t leave it alone.
At 6 p.m., Roanoke, Blacksburg (VT Airport), Lynchburg, Danville and Martinsville were all reporting 88 degrees. Don’t think I’ve ever seen all 5 of those sites exactly the same before.
What a nice relief today from the heat,National hit 88,Dulles 85 and i`m 30 miles west of Dulles in the hills,Lol,with a high of 83.Just finished cutting the grass and barely broke a sweat!Just checked my temp and its already down to 75!Tommorow is a different story calling for a high of 95-100.I`m already stressing out about the heat to come.Come on October!Stay cool everyone!
Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14-day map: Same old, same old. Heat dome centered in the Plains states. Southeast moving disturbances moving from Upper Midwest to Mid-Atlantic, with very likely overdone strip of “above-normal” precipitation over us.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
With the 8-14 day CPC map, I think I will go to the garden tomorrow and plant some rice. It may all that can survive this damp, humid weather. Tomatoes will soon start damaging if the rain does not stop here. My how us humans are never happy. Either too dry, too hot, too cold, too wet. When will it ever be just right – in Heaven.
And the CPC 6-10 map shows a strong resemblance to the 8-14 day that KM posted a link to. SW Virginia west of the Blue Ridge seems to be in the 33% range of being warmer than normal, but the 40% chance area is much closer on the 6-10 day. At least we are not in the 60% chance that appears in the western plains on the 6-10 day.
I will be in SE Wisconsin (just north of Milwaukee) by this time next week (Lord willin’ and the plane don’t crash …). Guess who is supposed to be wet?? It will be fine if they are late afternoon t-storms …. a huge disappointment if they are all-day rains.
Michael H, to respond to your (rhetorical?) question in the very recent comment: My answer is from about May 20 to June 16th or so. The finest 4-week stretch of weather I have seen since I moved to ROA in late 1997. But as some like to say, we are paying for it now ….. very dearly in the case of those folks who suffered through 7 and 8 days without power from derecho and some also had large damage to trees, gardens, and even roofs (and I assume a few vehicles).
By the way, the CPC came out with its outlook for August back on the 19th. Apologies if someone (Rick and Kevin would be the most likely to have done it) has already posted it. SW Virginia is in the 40% chance of being warmer than normal. BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!! Same also true of the 3-month outlook for AUG-OCT. DOUBLE BOO. When am I/are we going to get a cooler than normal summer here?!?!?!
Probable answer? The summer of 2014, the first summer AFTER I retire.
All of Virginia is in the “Equal Chance” of being either wetter or drier than normal for both those periods of time.
Kevin, could the D word possibly drop down into northern or central Virginia?
No Doug, have not watch “The Perfect Storm”.
I have lived here 16 years and this is the warmest morning in that time, 73. I don’t like this.
NWS-Blacksburg is comparing warm air aloft today to that of June 29 when it was 104 in Roanoke. More high cloudiness and higher dew points will probably keep temperatures a few degrees below those levels, forecasters are thinking.
The storms to our north may make a push southward tonight. The Storm Prediction Center’s slight risk area cuts off from Roanoke to just below D.C. They are likely to run out of daytime heating and encounter mountain effects as they move southeast tonight, slowly weakening. Central and northern Virginia have the greatest risk overnight.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
I’m not willing to call it a “derecho” until it’s obvious that there has been one. Storms with damaging wind potential conveys the point just fine.
82 at 8 a.m. at Roanoke. Low was 77 (says NWS now — automated station shows a 76 low), which if it survives til midnight, would be a new record high minimum for Roanoke, surpassing 74 on this date in 2010.
Doug, wasn’t 2009 and 2003 cooler than the normal for the summer as a whole? Kevin, or anyone, would you happen to know that?
Still lacking rain here! And because of this, I’m editing my comment name slightly. Doug, I’m sorry, but I have to copy you a little here with the whole name copying thing! Hope you don’t mind!
And of course, I will add adverbs/adjectives accordingly if the dryness increases or decreases.
Kevin, good call about using “derecho” too liberally. I feel now that the NWS and other weather outlets know that “derecho” is well known to the public, they will overly use the term now. However, it is also good to be overly prepared for a storm than what happened on June 29th and is also good to forecast in a way that presents all possible situations (like many of you have said on here). I must say that Kevin and this blog, were on target that day for predicting the derecho and also talking about the potential pattern the night before! Great job!! I was without power for 6 days!!! And I live 7 minutes away from the center of Blacksburg!!! But if it weren’t for you guys, I would have been totally unprepared! Thanks!
This blog is fantastic! I’ve been on here since January 2010, and I owe 2009-2010 winter another thank you for letting me get familiar with this blog. The summers here on the blog are also fun too! And Kevin, you should still continue to do the heat contest despite the lower entry amounts. The snow contest is a hit but the heat contest is slightly easier. And I was dumb this year cause I forgot to submit my heat contest predictions!! I had it all planned out one day and realized that I misread the date for the deadline. But I’ll be ready next year…I did it the previous summer and I believe my brother did very well but I didn’t.
Nick: Your support is appreciated!
2009 was a cool July, but slightly warmer than normal summer overall (more or less a “normal” summer). Summer 2003 was a little cooler than normal.
I would put tonight’s concern above Tuesday’s but less than June 29. I think we may well get some storms (possibly a squall line of some sort) very late tonight, later than the early evening arrival on June 29, but they should be on the downward swing then. Just enough concern to be worth monitoring this evening.
With an average of 81.1 entering today, and seeing how the weather is breaking through Tuesday, I don’t see how Roanoke would not set a new record for hottest July on record, beating 80.2 from last year and 1993. Even when the highs drop back off today’s extreme levels, several days in upper 80s-low 90s with lows sticking in the low 70s most days will keep the average very near where it is now. Some indication we may get at least a brief even cooler push next week, but it doesn’t arrive until Wednesday if it happens at all — and Wednesday is Aug. 1.
I have to return to work in 2.5 weeks. Is it too early to start talking about snow days? LOL
Nick, by all means go for whatever adjectives, adverbs, etc. you want to behind your name, and please no need to apologize. I get a kick out of seeing such stuff, like Nurse Snow or Nurse Dry Garden or Rick of Dryville (now Rick of Plenty-of-Rain-Latelyville). I will also use this comment to make another plea to others to please include your location after your name, such as “Dudley Doright, Lower Slobovia, elevation minus 50 feet.” {That was another attempt at humor, but only those folks nearly as ancient as me may understand the names}
I knew it had to be somewhere………..for the Olympics.
“But with Great Britain experiencing the coldest, wettest summer in two centuries…………”
Also, Nick of Dry Ellett Valley, 2009 was NOT a cool summer overall. You are probably remembering that July that summer WAS cool, 2.7 degrees “ctn” in Blacksburg and 2.9 degrees “ctn” in ROA. However, both June and August were warmer than normal for both cities, +2.5 and +3.6 in Blacksburg and +2.2 and +3.6 in ROA. Blacksburg had 16 days in July 2009 with lows in the 50s, lowest being 50 on the 19th. And it may have been cooler still in your valley.
Models and cospa continue to show thunder redeveloping srn ny state into wva…movg east this eve…bow segments expected…area is under ndt risk for severe weather…
Here is an astonishing animation of The One.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/120629-30_g13_ir_derecho_anim.gif
That animation was quite scary but not nearly as scary as what happened on the ground.
Nice link Lexingtonian. That animation is somthing to see!
Very interesting set up on the radar right now! Storms lining up in almost a straight line from New England to Texas! Ohio and Pennsylvania seem to be getting the brunt of this one right now. I’ve already seen reports that this is one of those “d-words” up that way. Has the media just gone mad with this term now?
A major difference between today and June 29 is this map.
http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/files/2012/07/500mbwinds0726.gif
You will notice the upper-level winds are more east-northeast than southeast. Also notice how there are fewer wind barbs down our way to the north. This is why it is not expected that current storms developing in the Ohio Valley are going to rocket southeastward like June 29. But it could be knocking on the door of our area by late tonight, and we might see storms in Southwest Virginia IF some of the storms have enough momentum to overcome the westerly downslope winds. A better chance of storms will exist Friday when the front is nearer our region.
Oh…and that animation was amazing! The way it explodes over Indiana/Ohio is awesome and terrifying at the same time.
Yea, I was watching the loop of those lines and didn’t think they would make it this way. It is very apparent they are moving more east, even northeast. We (meaning her on my little plot of land) could use the rain. I sure don’t want to take over as mayor of brownsville.
There is somewhat more directional wind shear than in several previous severe weather situations in the East too, so we’re already seeing more tornado warnings that we have been in most setups this summer. Binghamton NY area has been put under a tornado warning recently.
SPC has mesoscale discussion out suggesting most of Virginia north/east of Roanoke may be placed under a severe thunderstorm watch soon for developing clusters of storms.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1606.html
So will the line of storms make it to the Doppler? Or is the line going to fall apart as the sun goes down?
Have a new post discussing storms.
But to answer your question: NWS gives it only 1 in 5 shot of making it to Roanoke. Farther south and east you are, less chance it makes it tonight. It won’t die out immediately with sunset, but lack of heating, weak wind flow, downsloping and shrinking of the updrafts crossing the mountains will likely conspire to dissipate this line moving our way. Better chances on Friday.