UPDATE 8:10 PM: Periods of showers, storms as heat wave ends
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UPDATE 8:10 PM: The severe thunderstorm watch has been cancelled for Southwest Virginia as the storms have moved south of the region. Northeast winds behind a cold front are now bringing cooler air into much of the region. END UPDATE
UPDATE 3:25 PM: Severe thunderstorm watch until 9 p.m. for much of Southwest Virginia, including the Roanoke and New River valleys. Afternoon heating, abundant moisture and a slow-moving, diffuse cold front are working together to trigger showers and storms in our region. One line of storms is slowly moving through Botetourt County, while also building back to the west, and may enter the Roanoke area within the next hour or two. Locally damaging winds and some very heavy downpours are the primary storm threats this afternoon. END UPDATE
This historic heat wave is over for Southwest Virginia. For Roanoke, it was 11 days averaging 99 degrees–4 days over 100, 6 97 to 99 and 1 at 94. It appears to be the most severe heat wave of that length or longer since 12 days averaged 99.5 degrees in 1932. The last heat wave of similar intensity was in 1977, which actually had a couple different periods separated by a couple of cooler days. I’ll get back to examining this heat wave historically.
If the sun slips out enough between showers on Monday, it might hit 90 degrees in a few places from the Roanoke Valley southward and eastward. The rest of the week is likely to have high temperatures ranging from the 70s to mid 80s. Even Roanoke may struggle to make 80 at midweek, as cooler air settles in from the north, repeated rounds of showers and storms move through or nearby, and the core of the “heat dome” high pressure system relocates to the western U.S.
The cold front is only sluggishly settling southward overnight just north and west of us, and will only slowly slip south of us the next few days. It will serve as a focusing mechanism for repeated rounds of rain and some storms through the week. That’s why the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center has us in the bright colors depicting 2-5 inches of rain through Friday. It probably won’t be smoothed-out lines like the map shows, but more spotty/streaky, with some very heavy bands of flash flooding rain while others get lesser amounts. But this map gives an idea of the potential for rain this week as waves of low pressure and clusters of showers and storms move near and along the stalling front. The threat of severe weather — locally damaging winds, primarily — will remain overnight and Monday, (the Storm Prediction Center has circled us in a slight risk of severe weather) but it appears likely to be localized as it was Sunday afternoon (several damage reports from Bedford County) rather than widespread high winds. But we’re all going to be a little on edge about power outages with the June 29 derecho fresh in our minds, and there may well be some as even modest gusts in the 40-50 mph can loosen some limbs weakened by the derecho.
July 8, 2012 - 10:24 PM
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Made it back to Greene at 10 pm from the Greenbrier! Was a great tournament and hope it continues to draw the big boys in to play. Hit a rather nice lightning storm near Lexington about 8 pm. Other then that I didnt hit any nasty storms out there, the air is still rather clammy and nasty! Kevin, I take it were not going to get any dry air, just humid cooler air. Am I correct in thinking this, or can we get some dry air in here?
No rain up here on the ridge – good that we have 5 more chances. It is 69 this morning and no breeze.
Cooler air pressing in from the north is drier, but is meeting resistance from warm, humid air to the south. That’s why there is the threat of rain and storms for several days along the stalling stationary front. Better chances for more rain the farther south you are in Virginia.
No rain all weekend at my house, the yard is toasty and brown. We did get some thunder yesterday, and a couple breezes from the outflow boundary, but that was it. A good soaking rain would be nice, things are dry and dusty with just 4.11 inches of rain since May 16, darn close to 2 months (should be closer to 7 inches), with the past couple of weeks being blazing hot.
Heat wave may be over but it feels as disgusting as ever this morning in Blacksburg with the humidity.
The “humid wave” has only just begun.
I remain somewhat skeptical about the forecast rain amounts in the area this week. May be one of those cases where one spot gets 7-10 inches and others get <1 inch and the overall averages are close to what the map shows.
Kevin, I was just thinking along those same lines. I like seeing the amounts on the HPC map, but the skeptic in me senses that come the end of this stalled front, a lot of people will still be just as dry as they are now. I will be very, very surprised if we get an inch or more in my neck of the woods…just call it a hunch.
All things being relative, your headline seems a little rose colored with a projected high in the 90′s on the back of a high dew point.
Hey, KM, how much rain did RRA get this weekend? Sounds like very little. And how many AEP customers in Roanoke County, Roanoke city, Salem and any other areas locally are still “powerless?”
If our home has not gotten any rain, I am glad that I am not there to be disgusted by the situation. The cold front has definitely come through up here. Boston’s dew point an hour ago was 49, lots of low 50s elsewhere in southern and eastern New England. I sure do hope that our home and tons of other folks down there who need the rain get at least two inches this week ….
Big change in todays ENSO report. The El Nino is almost certain for this fall and winter……really by late summer. Slide #25 and a few after that.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
Sure was a strange forecast yesterday as we (Bedford Co) weren’t included in the Watch but twice had Warnings posted (I think twice..not 100% sure on that). I do know that strong storms formed several times over rt 24 which is just north of us in Goodview. Each time one of the storms became strong enough to show purple on radar. We only received .03 overall, but we had a good bit of thunder and lightning. One storm did fill up our yard with debris again from some strong winds.
On the temp front, we hit 100 (99.7 to be precise) yesterday. We had not seen that since July 1st. Kind of a flip-flop with Roanoke from earlier this year when we hit 90 three times before Roanoke hit that mark.
Yeah, I’m still waiting for those lower dew points north of the Mason/Dixon line to creep down this way…but it IS July and the humidity relief may not be at hand just yet. The lowered temperatures are welcome, however!
95% chance of rain Sunday and not a drop as of Monday 1 PM .
I somewhat controversally consider 95 the baseline for a heat wave, Matt. But this will be the only day in the low 90s this week … probably.
Kevin, could there be a sort of “localized” high pressure over Roanoke Valley? While watching the radar over the last few days it appeared that storms would head toward us and then ride up and over the Valley to the north and to the south. Naturally I cannot write that as fact, only that it looked that way to me. I have also noticed storms coming in and drying up and collapsing near or in the Valley before reaching my home in Eastern Rke. County only to re-fire east of us in Bedford. Very frustrating as the grass in my yard crunches when I walk on it, just like many of the bloggers here.
Doug: I think you may be onto something last few days. For years, I’ve seen the same pattern when it’s 95+ degrees in Roanoke with a light westerly wind — storms develop just to the east. Happened about 3-4 days in past week. I think that pattern has broken down today. It appears the line to the north is slowly sliding south while building back to the west.
South Roanoke County, generally south of Electric Road, got a quick shower about half an hour ago.
Thanks Kevin, it appears you are correct in saying that the pattern has broken down today as I am getting a moderate shower here near Wm. Byrd HS.
Hopefully more showers are on the way now and all of us in Roanoke Valley will get some much-needed rain.
My gauge in south Roanoke County has more than half an inch of rain in 15 minutes.
No rain here yet but we do have a power outage. C’est la vie….sigh.
Kevin,
Nothing strong seems to be making it across the mountains NW of Pulaski. Is that going to be it for today in Pulaski Co. ?
Still bone dry in my neck of the NRV, no measurable rain in almost a week, despite severe storms being all around for several of them…they just keep fizzling before the enter the area, or skirt around by several miles. Very frustrating, and my garden is none too happy…been manually watering the past 2 weeks trying to save everything.
No rain up here on “Dry” ridge. Can see and hear the thunder from the storm north and east of us. Maybe we will at least get some of that “outflow” cool air. Glad to hear that folks are getting rain.
Nothing in Blacksburg for this whole system so far.
Kevin, what is the progress of this front? Is it getting below us now or is it still to the north?
Not a drop of rain or even a brisk breeze to help cool things down here in Willis. Just an occasional rumble of thunder in the distance. Still much too hot for my comfort. Even the dogs are getting cranky. We finally got some cloud cover about 6 pm to give the sense of coming change.
HPC tracks the cold front near the Va-NC line.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif
NE winds have kicked in at Roanoke with mid 70s.
Today shows why I’ve been a little hesitant jumping on these big HPC rainfall projections. It’s hard to pin down these stalling fronts. It was farther north than expected today. Appears it will be farther south next couple of days, with most rain in Carolinas. Some spots got big rain amounts today — I got nearly an inch. But others are bone dry. Without a strong low pumping in moisture, it’s hard to get the widespread amounts.
Good to know Kevin. I will water my garden tomorrow here in Blacksburg if the radar looks clear first thing.
We hit 91.2 today in Goodview before the storms moved in, or should I say passed by. Only .13 inches for our location.
I would not care to stay just south of the front if that means rain. We had a storm last night but only .20″. We are not hurting again yet but we will not hold long. NWS gives us a 40-70% chance of rain all week. We will see what happens.