Comments on: UPDATE 5:10 PM, 7/20: Maybe some more storms where Thursday evening’s squall line came from

By: Nick in the Elett Valley

Nick in the Elett Valley — Sat, 21 Jul 2012 04:15:43 +0000

Other John, how did your golf outing go today? Was the weather an issue?

Oh yeah, forgot to mention that I GOT NO RAIN TODAY! By now though, I’m used to this…I’m probably more likely to get rain from a small cell when it is least likely…infact, that’s what happened 1-2 weeks ago. Maybe it’ll happen again!

By: Clarkdocvet

Clarkdocvet — Sat, 21 Jul 2012 03:48:20 +0000

Yep crazy storm here in Galax this evening. The BBQ festival is going on and close to 3″ of rain was reported in several areas in town. A lower lying area was flooded for a time as the run-off overwhelmed the drainage system. My wife was serving beers downtown and said it was one of the strongest downpours she had seen. Less than 4 miles away,I got nothing at home…

By: Michael Hoback

Michael Hoback — Sat, 21 Jul 2012 03:36:50 +0000

Not much rain here today at the Chapel. Some light, steady rain this am and another light shower this afternoon. Strong storms with heavy rain are now hitting lower Washington Co into Kingsport, Tn and a line toward Knoxville. Lower Washington Co, VA and Sullivan Co, Tn have had over 8″ of rain this month. I estimate our numbers between 3-4 “. Ms. Eva in Mendota is getting rain tonight. Dog days are here for now.

By: Doug Griggs, In not-quite-as-brown SW RNKE County, 1420' elevation

Doug Griggs, In not-quite-as-brown SW RNKE County, 1420' elevation — Sat, 21 Jul 2012 03:22:49 +0000

I wish a localized storm would come dump on my neighborhood, even to the tune of an inch. Even the new Roanoke Valley Mayor of Brownsville — Leo Lady — would like that, too, I bet. How much rainfall did you get yesterday, LL?

By: Kevin Myatt

Kevin Myatt — Sat, 21 Jul 2012 02:46:51 +0000

Saw that storm on radar, Johnny.

Below are estimated rain totals from Doppler radar. The northernmost green dot in the circle is the Galax storm Johnny refers to. Very localized.

http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/files/2012/07/raintotalradar1040pm0720b.png

By: Johnny near KHLX

Johnny near KHLX — Sat, 21 Jul 2012 02:39:02 +0000

Heavy rain in Galax from earlier storm caused some flooding problems. A couple of streets were closed for a while. Taylorwood’s PWS reporting 2.46″ of rain.

By: Doug Griggs, In not-quite-as-brown SW RNKE County, 1420' elevation

Doug Griggs, In not-quite-as-brown SW RNKE County, 1420' elevation — Sat, 21 Jul 2012 02:35:53 +0000

Speaking of El Nino, the latest “ENSO Prediction Plume” has been issued by the IRI. Only about 4 models show this El Nino getting really strong (at/over +1.5 degrees for even one month), and there is general consensus that this El Nino will not last for many months, either. I think nearly all of them show the temps falling gradually starting in the “DJF” timeframe, and definitely by the JFM measurement. So we better get a somewhat wet/moist/snowy winter, because by spring El Nino will probably be back to neutral conditions.

By: Doug Griggs, In not-quite-as-brown SW RNKE County, 1420' elevation

Doug Griggs, In not-quite-as-brown SW RNKE County, 1420' elevation — Sat, 21 Jul 2012 02:27:53 +0000

I think once El Nino gets going, which may take a few months to influence rainfall patterns, big chunks of the USA will get a fairly quick solution to their lack of rain. Including us. But I am talking at least October, more likely November. And I don’t have the Midwest in mind when I mentioned “big chunks.”

By: Kevin Myatt

Kevin Myatt — Sat, 21 Jul 2012 02:08:45 +0000

I wasn’t a big believer in the HPC numbers — their maps don’t do well in summer scattered patterns, never have — but thought this would pan out more than it did. Maybe half an inch over most of the area with a few heavier stripes.

Drought begets more drought until it is dealt with head-on by major pattern changes. Until we get large-scale storm systems to soak large regions, all we’re going to have are these hit-and-miss pop-up storms and clusters. A few spots will get flooding rains — Petersburg reporting that tonight. Most will get much less or nothing.

By: Rick in Wytheville

Rick in Wytheville — Sat, 21 Jul 2012 01:56:05 +0000

I think every day this week, the HPC map showed I would get 1-2.5 inches of rain in the next 5 day. Well, so far that has resulted in 0.10″.
Thanks Kevin for the drought information.