UPDATE 6:20 PM: Severe weather threat has ended for Southwest Virginia
UPDATE 6:20 PM: The severe thunderstorm watch has been cancelled for almost all of Southwest Virginia — and the few counties that remain near the Tennessee line will soon be out of it, too, as storms have moved to the south. The “derecho shield” — a band of morning rain and storms in Ohio and western West Virginia — worked today, providing a column of rain-cooled air that a storm cluster that caused widespread wind damage in northern Illinois and Indiana couldn’t cross. Downslope westerly winds and cloud cover kept the rest of our severe weather potential in check. The wind dynamics, surface and aloft, were certainly there for wind damage if there had been more intense storms, but there weren’t, this time. East of Interstate 77, there hasn’t been much rain, either. END UPDATE
Latest watches and warnings from National Weather Service-Blacksburg
Not surprisingly, a severe thunderstorm watch has been issueduntil 8p.m. for most of Virginia, excluding the far southeast counties, and a few in the far southwest under a different watch til 7 p.m. Rather than one major storm complex to watch, we have a variety of different storms to monitor: a bow echo line with a long history of wind damage sliding into far southwest Virginia, and scattered clusters/individual storms in the mountains of Virginia and West Virginia moving southeastward. Clouds and early showers/storms are limiting instability some in parts of western Virginia, which may curtail the severe weather risk some west of the Blue Ridge, but wind dynamics are unusually strong for July, typically a time of anemic upper-air and surface wind. Storms with wind damage are possible this afternoon throughout the watch boxes, and with stronger low-level wind shear than is typical in July, a few rotating storm structures (i.e. supercells) may occur with some hail and localized winds possible. The tornado risk is low, but somewhat higher than what we saw June 29, which was entirely a storm outflow situation. Locations that have stayed in sunshine this morning and heated up– primarily east of the Blue Ridge — will have the best chance of higher-end storms, but severe weather is possible anywhere in and near the watch boxes this afternoon. Keep an eye on the sky and on radar.
July 24, 2012 - 1:57 PM
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Eastern half of bow echo hitting rain-cooled air in WVa per Storm Prediction Center.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1570.html
It may be the derecho shield today for Roanoke and New River valleys.
Visible satellite showing some slight clearing through central West Virginia. I’m also noticing some new development near Charleston that will move through the area that’s clearing some. It may be enough sun and heating out ahead of it to keep things going as the newly developed part moves SE through WV. CAPE is 1500+ around the VA/WV border, so it’ll be interesting to see what it does once it gets closer.
Localized development of strong cells based on factors like you described, Ben, would be my major concern for Roanoke/NRV and nearby areas now. Bow echo is looking weak on its eastern flank and is clearly now focusing more south, even a little west of due south, toward the far SW corner of Va. There are currently no severe thunderstorm warnings at all in WVa. Morning showers/storms and clouds did their work over there.
Storm Warning just went up for Albemarle, and its still nice out. Just like 6/29! a Pre-emptive warning!
Charlottesville is 90. Roanoke is 78. That’s why the higher severe threat is up there now.
Still think any significant straight line winds will be South and West of ROA…Most of energy is moving more southerly in the bowed portion of line
It appears to me as if still PSK and westward would get winds…but no one thus far has gotten anything like WVA did last go round…theres some atmospheric mixing going on on the northeast end of the bow that wasnt present in the June storm….Will see how winds evolve around Lewisburg…Im pretty sure this will pass with not much more notice than a moderate but fast moving thunderstorm.
People in the Roanoke area have taken the derecho scenario and are running with it.
It is pretty darn windy here, but like Kevin said the temps are down. I just hope the wind doesn’t pick up much more than this or it could get nasty even if we aren’t in the direct line of fire!
Beckly WV under Severe T Warning…that cell is inline for ROA Valley in about 90 minutes
First wave that went through at lunch time gave us “0.17″ inches. Watching radar as the next wave leaves WVA – looks like it is breaking up.
a-ha! turnabout from this weekend’s near 20 degree difference!
The bow echo out of WV and KY is just about to enter Northern Washington Co. Thankfully it seems to have lost much of its strength and severe nature. I am not complaining about our rainfall but we have had plenty and more on the way.
falling apart rapidly west and south of Lewisburg..
Winds 270 13 gust to 20…
Maples barely showing their silver side.
Power trucks can now re-establish their command posts at Krispy Kreme.
From the looks of it we can probably breathe easy here in the Roanoke Valley. Wind is even dying down here. Still breezy but nothing like it was 30 minutes ago. Would still like to see some rain though.
However, I see Jamey Singleton posting on FB that the NRV and RV could have some 50-60 mph winds even if we don’t get any of the storms. What say ye Kevin?
Should be interesting to see what happened back home after today’s storms. At one point around 3:15, it looked like all of Greene County was covered by a red blob on the radar.
Its just dark outside my office window (In Charlottesville), had some rain and wind but nothing worth getting excited about.
What is the chance for these storms actually hitting Roanoke City today? Is it almost certain we will get some bad storms or do you think it won’t be as bad as many of us think?
That is a pretty potent cell about to move into Craig County, possibly aiming at Roanoke next hour. It was severe-warned near Beckley, WVa, earlier. Gusty winds, heavy rain possible as that blows through. Not a derecho … but we get plenty of windy storms that aren’t. A wee bit of sun in Roanoke Valley may have destabilized things a bit.
No sooner do I post that and thr cell looks weaker entering Craig County.
Hope, it’s not certain at all that Roanoke will get a bad storm. Rain-cooled air in WVa weakened and redirected the line of storms from earlier, and it’s just not all that hot and humid outside to fuel storms. This cell moving into Craig County now may be worst looking thing on horizon for Roanoke, and it may be weakening.
Here’s a nice shelf cloud that rolled into Richmond. Ah, reminds me of the “good ole days” in Missouri and Nebraska.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tidal-wave-cloud-shelf-cloud-richmond/68352
We have 0.70″ so far in Wytheville. More coming, I hope.
This weather event seems to mimic our winter weather events…in other words, pretty much a non-event for us (Roanoke Valley, most of the NRV too I think) As I said to someone earlier, those storms are breaking up faster than Kim Kardashian’s wedding!
It just never felt like a severe weather day here to me. I could see synoptically how it had potential, but it the setup had some screws loose. The shield of rain between us and the main storm complex was my first big clue.
I’m not surprised.
Ah well. Part of the fun in predicting is weighing the possibilities and seeing if your prediction will be correct. It was fun tracking nonetheless. Would have been nice if it had given us folks in the Roanoke Valley a little more rain, though.
Stick a fork in it. It’s a done deal for the valley. Maybe a little rain but I don’t see that either. And good riddance. Nobody needed a re-play. Had a gust of 31mph and high winds all day. With temps in the mid to upper 70′s after 11 AM. D. Carrol, was thinkin about tetchin off a fire tonight. Probably not tho.
Still holding at the “0.17″ inches of rain that came during lunch. Radar looks like it is all over for us here at FCX. Just windy now. At least folks had a heads up in case the storms did materialize into something of significance.
Cloudy here most of the day only hit about 85 for a high,only a brief shower around 4:30,low tonight around 60 with a high tommorrow at 85 with low humidity.Heat coming back thursday high 95-100!I`m sick of this heat!Can`t wait till October and cooler temps!
Yeah, weird situation as a weather blogger. I never believed that this was going to be a very serious weather situation for our neck of the woods (Roanoke/New River valleys). But the atmospheric setup had some potential. So I tiptoed on the line between awareness about the possibilities and skepticism about some elements of it. Didn’t want folks to have no warning if something did happen, but didn’t want to overplay it, especially the “d” word. There is a certain “derecho hyper-awareness right now, which is understandable after June 29, but it’s easy to turn lots of severe weather situations into a potential repeat of that, when they’re not. Not being 104 after a morning low of 84 went a long way without any other factors to keeping June 29 from replaying.
This was a weird weather day. The cloud layer, gusting winds…..felt like one of those September days when a hurricane was off the coast of Virginia beach.
I appreciated your updates throughout the day Kevin, and that you are cautious when throwing the “d” word around. I think it goes a long way in keeping everyone informed yet not scared.
Loved everyone’s observations today too. As Nate said, really weird weather day. The sky/sunset this evening doesn’t even look like a summer one to me.
Got in some hard rain traveling southbound on I-81 through the Shenandoah Valley this afternoon, with a little distant lightning, but nothing else. Seemed like a typical “mountain thunderstorm” kind of day.
Two sets of storms moved through the Chapel today. Rainfall totaled 1″. There was some wind and thunder and ligtening but no damage. Some severe TS warnings around us but none for Washington County. Creeks are now muddy and high throughout the region. Local weather predicting another 60% chance of rain and storms tomorrow. Low risk on Thursday and higher risk again on Friday.
Emptied .40 from the rain gauge here in SW Hokieburg tonight.
wd – quite the opposite – it is down to 66 here at 10:20 pm and there is a nice breeze blowing so the AC is off and the windows are open to take advantage of the breeze.
Hey, Rick, if you happen to see this comment, how much rain at your house today? Robin Reed showed some location in Wytheville getting 1.3 inches on his 6:20 weathercast. Congrats!! {You rain hog, you ….. :>) :>) }
I played Draper this morning before getting some (11, in fact!) shoulder injections this PM, and the creeks were running strong.
Non-weather comment. I had one of my weirdest rounds ever. I did not score well, at all, thanks to some wayward tee shots, but I made lots of putts and “canned” an amazing chip shot on the 18th when I was just hoping against hope to get the ball within ten feet. If I could have kept the ball in or close to the fairways, I could have had a great round.
Soon came the voice of the phone so relief, well-off live, and body affectd thought of it He pointed to the bottle and sighed, and said, She set up her easel under the stovepipe, right next to the back window, because she said it got natural sunlight’s a The battle for a few minutes, the piece of tens of meters long ridges, small devils who became impassable valley of deathll show me yours post.