UPDATE 11 PM: Severe thunderstorm watch until 2 a.m. as storms move our way from Ohio Valley, again
Latest Radar / Future Cast linked here
Latest watches/warnings from the National Weather Service-Blacksburg
UPDATE 11 PM: The storm area has split into two lines, the strongest and largest of which is moving southeast toward the New River Valley and Interstate 77 corridor areas around or before 12:30 a.m. A thinner, but locally intense, line of storms is swinging southeast out of Greenbrier County, W.Va., toward the Bath/Alleghany county area of Virginia, and perhaps later toward Roanoke/Botetourt/Rockbridge areas. The southern band is showing something of a “bow echo” look, so strong winds are quite possible through those areas. Some locally damaging winds are possible in the northern line, too. END UPDATE
As expected, a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for western Virginia tonight, effective until 2 a.m. Monday, for the cluster of storms moving our way from Ohio, West Virginia and Kentucky. Vigilance is high for severe weather right now, for obvious reasons, and that is warranted, as storms overnight could produce strong winds, hail and heavy downpours. One thing you will notice from the radar presentation of the storms tonight is that it is not a solid wall of storms forming a bow shape like Friday night, but rather a series of storm cells and/or storm clusters loosely forming a line — a “quasi-linear convective system” or QLCS in fancy weather terminology. So as of early this evening we’re not talking about a derecho sequel, but rather a line of storms that is and will continue to produce pockets of damaging winds, rather than widespread damage. That still won’t be good news for an area raked so intensely by Friday’s high winds — the chance is there that some new power outages could be created, or some areas that have regained power could lose it again. Hopefully, it will just be some rumbles and downpours (rain is needed in many areas) with a few cooling gusts. I’ll track it through the evening and early morning — likely arriving 11 p.m. to 1 a.m. in the Roanoke/New River valleys. In addition to comments and blog updates as warranted on this entry, I’ll be posting more updates on Twitter, which even those of you not on Twitter can see in the display at the right margin of this blog.
July 1, 2012 - 9:34 PM
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One thing to keep in mind looking at radar is that Charleston WVa’s radar is out of service, so some of the weaker look of storms near there is due to the radar being out.
strong complex of cells moving toward Bluefield now..
..latest from NWS extending WW box over SWVA..
URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 452
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
905 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY
WESTERN MARYLAND
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA INCLUDING THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 905 PM UNTIL
200 AM EDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF MARTINSBURG WEST VIRGINIA TO 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BLUEFIELD WEST VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 445…WW 446…WW
447…WW 448…WW 449…WW 450…WW 451…
DISCUSSION…SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREADING ACROSS
EASTERN KY/WESTERN WV AND EASTERN OH…PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WW AREA THROUGH
THE MID-LATE EVENING. AS USUAL…THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER
STORMS CAN MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS INTO WESTERN VA. HOWEVER…MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL THAT STORMS WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
AVIATION…A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30035.
…HART
What is the longest consecutive 90° plus streak in Roanoke’s history?
Wayles: Here’s the top 10 90+ streaks, listed by starting dates.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/rnk/climate/top10s/ROA/consecGT90.txt
Bluefield clear last hour..
Forecast heavy thunder by 11:30 pm..
This area has really rapidly developed in the last couple
of hours.
At least today was not as hot due to the early morning cloudiness. Saw 90 on my porch this afternoon. Now the storms are dropping our of KY and WV toward the Chapel. Dickenson, Buchanan and Scott Counties curently under Severe TS Warning. Movement is SE and headed for a direct hit. If it has to happen we would like some rain and not just the storm. If power goes off tonight I will just hang out in the dark and fire up the generator tomorrow.
Bluefield and then Wytheville get my votes as the spots most likely to be hit hard from this cluster. I am going to “roll the dice” and root for this cluster to come douse my property.
BTW, the nearly moon is out now and just about midway between moonrise and moonset, which means that it is at/close to the highest it will get in the sky tonight. Which ain’t high at all. Very low in the southern sky. Unlike a December or January full moon. Sometimes those are directly overhead here in SW Virginia.
Not a cloud in the sky…similar to the other night
Any chance that those two lines will merge? Right now it looks like the “split” in the two lines is headed right toward us. I’d welcome the rain but sure don’t want any wind after Friday night. We are still without power and it will likely be awhile before we see it since it appears the problem is out our pole alone. Thankfully we have a generator, although running it full time for a week could get expensive! Batten down the hatches folks and stay safe!!
Meant to type “nearly full moon” in the previous comment. June finished at a -0.2 degrees here in ROA and down 0.58 inches from normal for rainfall. Numbers for Blacksburg were -0.4 and down 1.04 for rainfall.
BTW, KM, that 14 or 15-day streak in 1930 must have been something!!! Average high temp was over 97 degrees!!
Watching this on radar, I’m kinda starting to wonder whether the southern line is becoming dominant — even starting to show a bow echo shape — and the northern line will weaken. If that happens, Roanoke north gets off light, but some nasty wind in spots from Blacksburg south and west.
I was noticing that with the southern line…especially the bow echo shape. Looks like we might be on the northern edge of that bow once it gets to VA. Keeping an eye on it instead of going to bed. Stocked up on ice and made sure everything was secured in our yard. Not much we can do about tree limbs though.
Kevin…
Satellite shows the push south out of WVA
kinda weakening a little..
This looks like the strongest part of whats left..
I hope at least it holds together enough to give
u guys some stablized cool outflow rushes..
Bristol is in the mid 70s…will wait to see what
the rain cooled air does for Bluefield and Tri Cities
before I give it up for the night….
And Kevin…im guessing you didnt think your blog would be nearly as lit up as it is without snow being the topic.
Looking at accuweather’s radar, I think we are getting hit by the northern part of the southern storm. We meaning Salem. To be honest, that storm looks nasty the whole way through.
We’re just starting to see the upper cloud-to-cloud strikes here in the Tom’s Creek area of Blacksburg. It’s beautiful, but a little unnerving after Friday.
Hearing thunder and seeing lightning here. We just shut the generator down for the night so it is awful quiet.
David…agree…looks rather angry.
If we could dodge getting a lot of new power outages, it certainly wouldn’t hurt to rain. Radar showing some 1+ inch amounts in an hour in southern W.Va.
Reports of trees down near the apex of the bow echo in Tazewell and Smyth County. Nowhere near the widespread number of severe wind reports as Friday, and not seeing stuff that looks like 75+ mph winds. Still could be trouble, though, especially where trees and limbs were weakened by the derecho Friday night.
WDBJ is urging people to take cover!!…is this storm really going to be that bad? Or are they being overly cautious? I don’t think anything can approach the frightening nature of Friday’s derecho…the sound of that as it approached was enough to make me shudder! I never heard thunder with its approach so the sound tonight is kind of comforting to me…in a weird sort of way.
Taking cover would mean basically not standing outside, or right next to windows. That would be advisable.
I think these will be more traditional “summer storms” rather than those mostly dry storms of Friday night. Thunder, lightning, rain after the initial wind gusts.
Well I would hope people would have sense enough to not be out at midnight with an approaching storm.
Kevin, that split is filling in…..
Just said the same thing on Twitter, David.
Well it rained in the Chapel. So far 1″ and still raining some. Winds were strong and lightening was fierce. Thunder and lightening have not ended. No power outage but plenty of blinks and brief darkness. Some more storms in KY but them may weaken. I am thankful to the Lord for the rain and I pray it continues. Stay safe all tonight.
This one definitely doesn’t have the “feel” of Friday’s derecho. There’s been no push of hot, humid air in front of the storm and no shift of wind direction yet. On Friday, the wind shifted 180 degrees and started feeding into the storm about four minutes before the first squall hit.
Right now, there are just a lot of rumbles, a nice fireworks show and me worrying about a precariously leaning poplar tree out front.
64 mph wind gust at New River Valley Airport near Dublin. Wires blown down at Narrows in Giles County.
Rumbles are getting louder but so far they aren’t competing with hubby’s snoring…ha ha. Does look like the line is tightening up to the north…just waiting for it to hit here because I can’t sleep.
Agree that this doesn’t feel like Friday at all.
It’s blowing through Hokieburg now – started about 5 minutes ago – very hurricane-like outside with wind and blowing rain.
Bluefield is down to 64F…
Press on upper air.
No warning for Roanoke yet. How this is going to miss us, I don’t know.
Worst part does appear to be slipping south of Roanoke city. Southern Roanoke County may catch edge of that.
Satellite shows clearly that most of the energy has shifted..
made a hard right turn ..PSK into far SWVA will see the most significant
precip I believe. Still shows very high tops over far SWVA.
Just added us to the warning
The NWS polygon I’m seeing only gets southern Roanoke County, missing Salem and Roanoke city. But at this point, it’s kinda picking hairs.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/
Rain just started here…no wind yet. Looks like we might get just the very edge of it. My phone battery is low so I am turning it in for the night. Hope everyone stays safe!
Never seen anything even close to this in my 6years in Blacksburg. This is quite something.
The two thunderphobic dogs woke me a short while ago. Rain just started here in Willis in western Floyd Co. Strong wind gusts for the last half hour. Glad it’t moving at a good pace and will pass by rather quickly.
Take that back…wind just picked up something fierce here! I can here small branches hitting the roof!
I looked to see why this area has shifted so rapidly South..
vs its pref Southeasterly track.
Seems its getting caught up in larger area of
cloud shield over Ga and SC..
The entire area is rotating now to South in Va..
and SWrly over Ga.
Tops are extremely high over East Tennessee.
All over here in Radford; looks like the cell in b’burg and c’burg is much more intense based on the lightning I see off to the ENE. Down to 64 degrees with only a brief 30-second downburst of rice to pea sized hail. Winds were about average for a t-storm this time of year; the lightning was more cloud-to-cloud with very strong vertical strikes every few minutes.
55000ft tops over far East Tennessee…
40000ft presently over Roanoke.
Heh, I was wrong, too, Tina B. The wind shifted into the storm a couple of minutes before the winds got here. I’ve got small debris all over the parking lot; 40 to 50 mph gusts it’s raining sideways. I also heard several large trees snapping during the worst of it. I lost power intermittently but thankfully, it returned.
But, man, oh man! What a light-show! It was almost constant lightning for a bit there.
Looks like a nice cell just passed btwn
Floyd and Copper Hill/Check area…
Hopefully they got good rain and not a lot of wind.
Just had some 40-45 mph gusts (my estimate) here in southern Roanoke County with the gust front.
Dang temp went up a degree at 1am ROA..
Must have been the compression as system moved over the ridges.
Would hate to see u guys get zero sum cooling out of it.
Radar indicated hail in the cell that passed over Floyd Co.
Out of bed at 12:46 am – watching the vivid and at times blinding light show. WOW! Unbelievable! This go around there is rain in with the wind. Raining sideways! Down to 62 F outside. So far still have power.
I figure that’s what it was, Joe. But the gust front and first part of rain have pushed in now. I think we’ll cool down fine.
Glad things are cool at FCX…and ROA environs…
Maybe just whispers of cool air for the rest of the evening…
Gnite SWVA.
Joe- didn’t see any hail in the storm but amazing wind and lots of rain and of course the lightning. Incredible! Seems most of the storm has “blown” through and now it is just rain.