UPDATE 5:15 PM, 7/27: Severe thunderstorm watch being lifted as storms march eastward
UPDATE 5:15 PM. The severe thunderstorm watch is being cancelled west to east — it was recently removed for Roanoke and westward — as the storms continue to move east and leave behind a stablized atmosphere. There are scattered reports of wind damage, including about 1,400 without power in Roanoke County. END UPDATE
UPDATE 2 PM: As expected, a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for most of Virginia except extreme southwest and southeast corners, effective until 7 p.m. In addition to a line of storms moving out of West Virginia, several small but intense cells have developed along the Blue Ridge, including over parts of the Roanoke area. END UPDATE
UPDATE 1:30 PM: The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted much of our region for a possible severe thunderstorm watch, with damaging winds the main threat, as storms moving through West Virginia approach the region this afternoon and new storms develop near the Blue Ridge. You can check latest Radar / Futurecast in right margin. END UPDATE
UPDATE 8:45 AM, 7/27: In this morning’s Storm Prediction Center, Southwest Virginia is between areas of greatest risk of severe weather today. (The most recent update pulls slight risk a bit west of the map at left, to the Blue Ridge.) Storms are expected to develop as a cold front and upper-level disturbance interact with heat and moisture, but the more intense heating/instability will be east of us and the better lift will be west of us. A few storms with heavy rain and gusty winds will be possible in Southwest Virginia. Once again, it will be a situation where one location gets a windy downpour with big lightning flashes, while someone a few miles away hears some thunder and gets no more than sprinkles. END UPDATE
UPDATE 12:30 AM: It’ s still possible some of the storms in West Virginia could drift into part of our region overnight. More likely, though, will be redevelopment of storms in hot, humid air Friday as the cold front pushes in and outflow boundaries from Thursday’s storms interact with the same juicy air mass. Severe storms will be possible, but likely not the tornadoes and derecho (yes, i just used that word) that went from Ohio to New York on Thursday. With weaker upper air flow probable, it will be more the typical summer clusters with localized damaging winds, and maybe a squall line or two developing on the front and/or an outflow boundary. Always hard to pinpoint exactly how it will go until storms start popping. END UPDATE
Not quite 100 in Roanoke today — 98 for an official high. Blacksburg didn’t even make 90, topping out at 89.
The Storm Prediction Center issues “mesoscale discussions” for potential severe storm areas — those that are under watches, could soon be under watches, and those that may not warrant a watch. Early this evening, the red circles marking the active mesoscale discussions were east, north and west of Southwest Virginia. A very potent severe weather situation drawing a “moderate risk” zone and already some tornado reports has been unfolding north of us from Ohio across Pennyslvania into New York. A broken line of thunderstorms extends all the way from upstate New York to west Texas. So how will this affect our neck of the woods? One important difference in today’s setup compared to the infamous June 29 derecho setup is the mid to upper air wind flow — shown on this graphic from the Storm Prediction Center earlier today. The winds aloft are lined up more west-southwest to east-northeast, rather than northwest to southeast, and the faster winds (more barbs on the lines) are north of our region, not aimed directly at us. The result is that storms are moving more from the Ohio Valley toward the Northeast rather than rocketing southeastward at us. Some of the storms in Kentucky and Ohio will move into West Virginia later this evening, but they will be encountering unfavorable wind flow (downslope winds over the mountains often dries them out) well after the peak daytime heating has let up. It’s possible a storm cluster could gain enough momentum to get over the mountains late tonight or early Friday morning, but the best chance of seeing storms overnight will lie in eastern West Virginia and west of Interstate 77 in far southwest Virginia. Some scattered storms or clusters of storms may develop in northern/central Virginia east and north of Roanoke this evening as daytime heating and humidity punches into cooling air aloft. A better chance of storms for our region exists on Friday when the front actually moves through, cutting through the heat and humidity. The upper-level wind flow is not expected to be as favorable for organized severe weather as it has been to our north today, so we’re probably looking at a random jumble of storm clusters capable of producing some localized damaging winds. The “d-word” probably gets a rest in our region for another 48 hours.
July 26, 2012 - 6:11 PM
RSS feed 
The word of the day so far doesn’t start with a “D” but rather a Q — a QLCS or “quasi-linear convective system.” A broken line of storms will suffice.
Elmira, N.Y. may have been hit by a tornado.
http://www.stargazette.com/
Also there is a nasty bow echo headed into the Hudson River Valley of New York.
Looks like a nasty line of storms headed for us in Greene county. Looks to be crossing VA/WVA border at the moment! Kevin, do these storms have enough strength to make it over the Blue Ridge in the next few hours? Just had severe storm watch posted, so guess the thinking is they will make it.
You may get some of that, Jared. But the worst looks to be north of you, and you will notice the line kind of stretching out more west to east rather than just moving directly at you like June 29 did.
Those of you longing for fall can take some solace from this: This cold front is taking a pretty hard slap at the entire heat dome, as evidenced by its long line of storms from New England almost to New Mexico. It’s not about to dislodge it or diminish it, but it has a fight for once. Some dry areas in the central U.S. are at least getting an hourlong blast of rain tonight.
I am one of those longing for fall, but I won’t hold my breath. That line of storms has been pretty neat to watch though!
Kevin- I read your article in the paper yesterday and wanted to give my 2 cents: Don’t let some grumpy sourpuss dictate how you or anyone else in the media how you report on an event. By the sound of it, I guess he got upset over how often thr word “earthquake” was thrown around last August. Why? Because that’s what we experienced. The derecho-I’m not afraid to say it-was a rare event for our region. My dad is 81 yrs old and he said he never saw a storm hit so quick as the derecho did. Keep up the great work and don’t allow anyone to tell you how to do your job!
Brian: I appreciate your comments. But I did mean my column in good fun, as much fun as a destructive (and even deadly) 80-mph wind storm can allow. My column was as much about the massive overuse of “derecho” on social media since the June 29 event as it was about the letter writer criticizing us for using it at all. There is a balance between the two extremes.
Awareness without hysteria is my prime objective.
The squall line/bow echo that has traveled from northeast Ohio to New York and eastward does appear to be a possible worthy recipient of derecho status.
The morning SPC update has 2 areas of slight risk for storms: 1 to east of SW Virginia, 1 to northwest in Ohio Valley.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
I heard on NPR this morning that the drought is NOT getting better. It occurred to me that for a drought to get “better” it would have to become drier. For the drought to get worse, it would have to get wetter. I could be wrong, but I think NPR meant that there has been no relief from the drought or perhaps that the drought is expanding or becoming more pervasive. I suspect that the drought really is getting better-at being a drought.
Wrong Newt.
Newt: We wouldn’t say a storm is getting better when it’s getting stronger — we would say it’s getting worse. But we might say it’s getting “better organized” or something like that.
I suppose it depends on if you’re telling the story from perspective of the event or from the perspective of the people affected.
Speaking of drought — I like this post in Capital Weather Gang, noting that referring to current drought as start of a new Dust Bowl is like talking about a no-hitter in the second inning.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/us-drought-is-bad-but-could-be-a-lot-worse/2012/07/27/gJQAExmkDX_blog.html
Newt, I suppose it’s how you look at it. A contrarian point of view would backup your post. I think the prevailing weather meaning is as stated by NPR. Not that it makes much difference, but if drought conditons get better, that tells me somebody/some area got rain. I know, the word “conditions” wasn’t used but is still accepted as proper, to my way of thinking.
Good analogy on the drought discussion…
Looks like some rain and storms will be moving into the area in the next couple of hours. I really hope we see some rain at the house, we’ve kind of gotten the short end of the rain stick lately.
Other John – I “Like” your comment above about the storms. Let’s hope it rains.
Pop-up storm nailing much of Roanoke area now — getting 45 mph winds and some brief heavy showers here in south Roanoke County.
Watch just issued, as noted in update above.
Here’s the link for WS 531, the Severe Thunderstorm Watch just posted:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 531
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 531 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
NC
NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALAMANCE ALLEGHANY ASHE
CASWELL DURHAM FORSYTH
GRANVILLE GUILFORD ORANGE
PERSON ROCKINGHAM STOKES
SURRY VANCE WARREN
WATAUGA WILKES YADKIN
VA
VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE ALLEGHANY AMELIA
AMHERST APPOMATTOX AUGUSTA
BATH BEDFORD BLAND
BOTETOURT BRUNSWICK BUCKINGHAM
CAMPBELL CAROLINE CARROLL
CHARLES CITY CHARLOTTE CHESTERFIELD
CRAIG CULPEPER CUMBERLAND
DINWIDDIE ESSEX FLOYD
FLUVANNA FRANKLIN GILES
GOOCHLAND GRAYSON GREENE
HALIFAX HANOVER HENRICO
HENRY HIGHLAND KING AND QUEEN
KING GEORGE KING WILLIAM LOUISA
LUNENBURG MADISON MECKLENBURG
MONTGOMERY NELSON NEW KENT
NOTTOWAY ORANGE PATRICK
PITTSYLVANIA POWHATAN PRINCE EDWARD
PRINCE GEORGE PULASKI RICHMOND
ROANOKE ROCKBRIDGE ROCKINGHAM
SMYTH SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD
TAZEWELL WESTMORELAND WYTHE
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD BUENA VISTA CHARLOTTESVILLE
COLONIAL HEIGHTS COVINGTON DANVILLE
GALAX HARRISONBURG HOPEWELL
LEXINGTON LYNCHBURG MARTINSVILLE
PETERSBURG RADFORD RICHMOND
ROANOKE SALEM STAUNTON
WAYNESBORO
WV
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MONROE
Here’s a couple of better links:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0531.html
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17
We caught the south end of a strong storm less than 30 minutes ago dropping .49 inches on us in Goodview. Power went out for a brief moment after a loud clap of thunder…then the sun came out. Looks like could be more to follow later on.
A few sprinkles on da Knob. Was outside and never got wet, just damp. Temp back up to 91.4* now. Just a breeze here and not much of one at that.
Storms are brewing out this way! Wind just picked up and thunder is rumbling. I think finally this rain might not miss us!
Small plane just crashed at the Virginia tech Airport. It doesn’t look too serious, the plane is upright, and it appears everyone got out ok. But it did take down quite a bit of fence near the terminal and parking lot. Emergency services are on site, and roping off the area.
It had to have been wind-related, because they were whipping something fierce at the time it happened…
The line of storms seems to be past us in Wytheville, yet we are under a severe thunderstorm watch until 10. Are they expecting more storms to form after this line has pulled through?
Shew! WE just went through it here in SW Roanoke County! The slide was ripped from my kids swing set by wind. We had some hail briefly, although small hail compared to some people. Then rain poured for about 4-5 minutes. Now it is overcast and “peaceful” looking outside.
We received a second half inch of rain from the last line of storms. We are now at 1.01 for the day. I now see there’s a 40% chance tomorrow. I sure wish they (NWS/models/Mother Nature) would make up their minds. Every update it changes…grrr
Nothing but a sprinkle here and my son got around 3/4″ in W. Salem. Did have a gust of 32mph+ that took the top of a woodpile I had half way stacked. My fault
wd, it looks like you and I were the relatively “unlucky” folks this time. I came home to a damp driveway and a few drops in the rain gauge (a few 100ths?), but that’s all. However, I drove through an ongoing downpour for most of my commute home beginning at 3:35. I had no sooner got in my car on 31st street when the skies opened big time, with slashing rain and buckets. Stayed that way all the way until the RR tracks (just south of Shenandoah Avenue NW on Peters Creek Road). Then moderate rain for another couple of miles. Pretty weak around my house. Same ol’, same ol’.
I bet Nurse Snow (Nurse Swing-Set-Slide-Was-ripped-off) lives no more than 2 miles from me. I wish we had been bombed like that. No tenemos un “slide por ninos,” — we don’t have a children’s slide.
Ryan, I would expect the watch to be eroded from the west. These storms will stabilize the atmosphere for hours, and it’s doubtful it can recover before dark. Storms in Indiana and Ohio likely stay north of us.
I drove through that storm on U.S. 220 north into Roanoke. Saw lots of twigs/leaves suspended in the air by the wind and some ominous clouds. Then blinding sheets of rain downtown.
As expected, the severe thunderstorm watch is being cancelled west to east. Roanoke and west has been removed from the watch box.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/
Looks like D. Carol, Mr. Griggs and I are the red headed stepchildren today. I’m sure other areas needed it more than I do, so that’s fine and dandy with me.
It rained really hard for about 2 minutes and we had gusty winds but no rain was measured in the rain gauge. It feels cooler outside this evening. I believe the temperature said it was 73.
I did hear a small plane flying over and heading in the Blacksburg direction just before the wind really got blowing – wondered if it was the one that crashed.
Storm cluster in southern Indiana/northern Kentucky may scrape western West Virginia, maybe even slip into far southwest Virginia this evening. Farther east, the air has been worked over pretty good by storms earlier, so there isn’t much instability to work with. Don’t expect to see much out of these in the Roanoke/New River valleys and nearby.
Dont know if it was the same plane Carol…but
you never know. Quite likely weather was a factor.
Sounded a bit like he may have picked up a tail wind
right on landing. Weather reports at Blacksburg will
likely pick this up. It could have felt to the pilot as
if the aircraft lost power when in fact he abruptly went from
a headwind to a tail wind.
On a large scale but what may have been a similar wind condition
google Delta 191…an L1011 that crashed at DFW…and/or watch this short video.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wA6DbzRr09U
Carol…I dont have access to BCB (Blacksburg) weather sequences..
But looking at the timing at when it rolled through Roanoke it seems
the timing would have been relatively close to the same.
At ROA airport the wind shifted at 1933z..at 1934z the winds changed
from a SE wind at 16kts to NW wind with a peak gust to 47kts..
thats a 63 knot loss total..like your car going from 60 to zero on its own
in a very short period of time. If you dont have your hand ready to advance that throttle fast it may be too late..many airplanes can not recover from that..they simply stop flying at low landing speeds…These are the times you look in advance for other landing airports. My guess is he was landing to the southeast as the storm approached on runway 12 (heading 120 degrees)
Oh..and you may or may not know
that the Blacksburg Airport does not
have a control tower..so there is no
live person on the ground reporting the winds
from instrumentation.
As far as I know there is only a wind sock there.
Right now, word is that the plane’s engine quit. BCB had a 37 mph gust at 3:15 p.m. when the state police say emergency crews responded. Either the plane landed just before the gust front arrived, or right as it was arriving. In the first case, weather was probably incidental and not much of a factor. In the latter case, it is possible weather could have been a more significant factor. The FAA will dig into the facts Monday with its investigation. Very glad no one was hurt.
Thanks for you insights on flying/landing planes near storms, Joe.
Went to Mauldin, SC today to pick up an organ for our Church. It was hot there (97). Hit a terrible storm between Asheville and Greenville. None here at the Chapel but I see the storms in Eastern KY and they are headed this way even though the NWS gives us a 10% chance of rain tonight.
I happened to be outside battening down the hatches and heard this small plane and thought to myself – you better be landing soon as the winds were picking up here near the Doppler. I guess as the crow flies, I am not too far from the Tech Airport. I will check and see -
The strong strom we got in Northern Botetourt had more cloud-to-ground lightning than anything. We got some rain and nice breeze but no hail, no real high winds or flash flooding. But the lightning display was amazing!
Biggest question on those storms is how long they hold together now that the daytime heating is cooling. I don’t think you’re part of the state had the storms today like we did, so the atmosphere may be somewhat unstable still. Some chance you get something out of it.
According to Google Earth, I am about 17 miles from the Tech Airport as the crow flies – in a southeast direction. Hmmm.
Joe, was that L 1011 crash the one that happened at DFW way back in the 1980s?? If so, I once saw a fascinating documentary on it, and it was THE crash that led to important discoveries about the possible catastrophic effects of wind shear. In the one that I am thinking of, the pilot tried to land during a severe t-storm, and a downward burst of wind shear drove him straight into the ground. It may have been one of those Nat Geo documentaries called “Seconds From Disaster.” {At least I think it was the Natl Geographic Channel that used to air them}
In 1983, Air Force One carrying President Reagan landed at Andrews Air Force Base less than 10 minutes before a 149 mph wind gust (no misprint — one-hundred forty-nine, Category 4 hurricane/EF-3 tornado speed) was recorded there in a microburst. Think about what a historical disaster that almost was.
yes Doug…just google Delta 191..
the tail wind was what got him..
He was what they call “way behind the airplane”
and it wasnt a widespread area of weather then..
it was an isolated cell that just happened to park itself
over the arrival end of the North end of the airport.
This is indeed the test case for much of what is known about microbursts
and its affects on aircraft.
Kevin…the engine may very well have quit..
But id bet the best steak in Roanoke that weather
will end up being the main factor..
The brain does funny things when you are
going fast and lose control of a situation.
I have a story this week of a pilot who thought
the radome cover of his nose area was seperating
the aircraft. Noises make for tense moments.
What was the last crash of a major airliner in the U.S., Joe? (Not counting 9/11) It used to seem like 1 or 2 of those would drop out of the sky every year in the 1980s and ’90s. Now I’m hard pressed to remember the last one.
Probably the most recent one of interest in
Roanoke was Comair (which just announced it was going out of business)
it crashed on takeoff from Lexington Ky.
It was a Canadair Regional Jet CRJ-100..Aug 2006.
A large factor in that crash was inattentiveness on takeoff.
The takeoff runways cross at the end of the field.
They were confused as to which runway they were on (dark..early morning)
They took off on the shorter of the two runways..and didnt clear the obstacles passed the end of the runway. (weather was not a factor)
Here is a good list of most recent domestic crashes or incidents.
As a FAA certificate holder I , of course ,have a lot of interest in these studies as it pertains to flight safety…
Im not quite sure what you mean about the aircraft “dropping out of the sky ” ??
Sorry…here is the link…
http://www.airsafe.com/events/us_ten.htm
Just an expression, Joe, referring to how many it seemed a major airliner would crash once or twice a year back when I was growing up, but now you hardly hear of it — a testament to improvements in aviation and dedications of folks like you.
My wife and I actually drove past the site of the Lexington air crash the day after it happened. We were headed to visit my family in Arkansas on the “we’re bored with I-40 through Tennessee” alternate route across Kentucky. We noticed federal vehicles lining a gravel road leading into the woods just past the airport.
Interesting you were there that day.
I seem to remember something too about crew fatigue
on that flight..but im not totally sure.
I think theyve totally closed the shorter runway..
Possibly solely because of that accident.
…..just checked…here is a good synopsis of the Comair accident.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comair_Flight_191