Some signs rain may soak into growing regions of dry ground
Weather Journal column: 2012 on pace to be warmest year on record at Roanoke
You may have read that more of the U.S. is in moderate or worse drought than any year since 1956. As of last week’s Drought Monitor (map linked here), only a patch of central Virginia near Richmond is in that category, but most of the state including all of western Virginia is in the “abnormally dry” pre-drought stage. There is little good news on the horizon for the worst-affected areas of the central U.S., but perhaps beyond the horizon, an El Nino possibly developing over the next 3 months might lead to more rainy storms riding in on the subtropical branch of the jet stream out of the Pacific as we move toward the cooler months.
Speaking of rain on dry ground, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center rainfall projection map is showing 1.5 inch or more throughout our region over the next 5 days, ending Sunday. This situation is somewhat similar to what happened last week when a cold front slowly moved south against strong high pressure in the Southeast. The timing of the front and where it slows down is always difficult for forecast models to latch onto, but it does appear at this point as if the front may slow down or even stall farther north than last week’s front did. So for that reason, I have slightly higher expectations of rainfall in our region than I did last week, when most of it hung around the Virginia-North Carolina border and farther south — though it will still likely be far more patchy with the pattern of shower/storm development than the smoothed our areas shown on this map. Rather than 1.5 inch areawide, it will probably be more like a few spots of 3 inches, widespread 1/2 inch and some areas getting little.
Storm chances will gradually pick up through the remainder of the week as the front gets closer. Highs Wednesday will be similar to today’s with widespread upper 80s to mid 90s (Blacksburg officially 89 on Tuesday, Roanoke 95), gradually pulling back to upper 70s-low 80s by the weekend. It will remain humid through the period, with lows near or above the 60s norms.
July 17, 2012 - 9:54 PM
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Awfully humid out there, at least here in the ROA valley. Dew points about 69 or 70. UGH!! Nice breeze here, but I wonder if it will be that way in 24017 zip.
HPC has already back off a tad in its morning maps, with around 1-1.25 inch locally next 5 days, and more both east and west.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif
The bulk of the rain is expected to occur Friday, as the front slowly moves through, with a wave of low pressure possibly moving along it.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day3.shtml
It’s hard to get a general rain in July without a tropical system. So I’m still expecting very patchy amounts mostly between 0 and 3 inches with more toward the 0-1 side than the 3 side.
Kevin: I read your column today and the info above about the El Nino pattern possibly coming in this fall. Does this mean we might have better chances for snowfall this winter than we did in the past couple of winters? Can the snow lovers out there start dreaming?
Leo Lady: El Nino’s reputation in winter is always based on the last one that occurred. 2009-10 was a big winter with an El Nino. The trick, though, was that it was an El Nino combined with strong negative phases of the North Atlantic and Arctic oscillations bringing cold air southward
An El Nino minus those features often turns coolish to mild and rainy for us. In 2007, we were mild and dry through an El Nino winter, as the usual subtropical storm systems were shunted into the Plains states rather than riding across the South as is more typical.
An El Nino pattern does somewhat increase the potential for large precipitation events in the cool months locally. But it’s not etched in stone, and it’s not assured in any way that those precipitation events will be snow. Keep in mind that even the 2009-10 winter was more rainy than it was snowy.
We got a light shower last night as storms popped up all around us, and went all around us. But, the rains we’ve gotten this month have perked everything back to life, which is helpful. Additional rains would be nice, so long as Friday afternoon from say 11am-6pm is dry between the VT Duck Pond and Auburn Hills for our company picnic and golf tournament.
Thanks for the explanation, Kevin. I’ll try not to get my hopes up.
I’ve been watching this blog, wunderground, and weather.com to figure out the likelihood of rain on Saturday noonish. We have an outdoor party planned and are trying to figure out if we need a backup plan. Wunderground is saying 70% chance and weather.com is saying 40%.
We picked up an unexpected 0.25″ of rain last night. Every little bit helps this time of year! I’m hoping we get lucky the next couple of days and get more rain. We have had storms miss us to the north, south, east, and west the last week or so.
Kevin, great link to that website about the daily averages on the last blog post! Thank you!
And Jared French, I love Castlerock! Play there a few times a year! Good to hear that you like that golf course! It’s the NRV’s best kept secret when it comes to golf courses!
Emily: Backup plan would be great for outdoor activities , especially if you can dedcide at last minute, Right now, I’m thinking better chance of showers will be Friday, less on Saturday.
Good news is that it looks like the heat dome next week will mostly avoid our region, staying over the central U.S. The only hitch could be if we wind up being on its eastern fringe for a few days and have to watch out for more storm clusters riding the “ring of fire” toward us.
I am hoping the hot weather here is toughening me up for my road trip to Austin, TX next week to help my son move. Yesterday afternoon, I noted that BBurg’s 91 was hotter than Austin’s 85 and the same is true today! But their humidity is higher…my son says that anyone who says Austin’s heat is ‘dry’ lies. Looks like a hot drive to Texas next week.
Slight risk of severe weather for us this afternoon.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
More significant threat is to our north where there are severe thunderstorm watches, including Northern Virginia, where the upper level winds are a little faster near the front. That will slip our way the next couple of days.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
Reporting from torrential rains central, here we go again. Heavy rain this pm in Washington County and the garden will not get tilled this evening. I notice on the Drought Monitor that Washington County is the only county in SWVA under normal moisture rating. All others rated dry. Tri-Cities airport near Bristol reported its first dry day yesterday in nine days. They have received over 7″ of rain in July and have gone from a 3″ deficit to a 1″ surplus. For us, dog days are here again.
Storms are firing up in distinct lines along the riges, with nothing in the valleys. Looks like another dry day in Riner.
Nick,
Grew up learning the game there at the ole Rock as we call it! I have a blast going back every year and playing with my cuz. Another one of my favorites growing up down that way was Blacksburg CC, played in the Allegheny am many times, but that Dejonge Guy was just to good. LOL he also got the course record at Fincastle CC, another one of my favorites. I would have to say however outside of the Rock, my two favorites growing up was Draper Valley and Wolfcreek golf course.
Well, I lucked out today and got to ride, instead of being “bumped” to a walking route. And just when the heat was becoming almost unbearable about 1 PM, thick clouds moved in and knocked the stuffing out of the temps for over an hour. I heard thunder a a few times then, but I must be the opposite of a “Rain Man” right now. It rarely rains where I am. So I was lucky twice today. If a substantial rain storm drops in on my home this evening, I just may have to go play the lottery!!
Jason, I’m with you on that one. No rain here either. Thundering in every which direction but not a drop for us.
The eastern edge of Wytheville got about an inch gully washer at 3:15pm. Not a drop on my west end of Wytheville. Plenty of time for this system to give me a drink, but I think it will be tomorrow afternoon now at the earliest.
4:45 PM, glory be, we had a moderate rainfall start up. 4:50 PM, end of rain. An hour later the driveway AND the grass were both dry. Amount in the gauge? 3 drops. I guess that might qualify as a “trace.” I am using the four-letter word right now … “hose.” Yea, verily I say unto you, this stinketh.
I won the election. But there may be a recount by Friday night …… PLEASE!!!
Thunder all around us and dark skies too this afternoon but no rain here. Radar looked like it was coming but once it hit the county line the storms seem to fall apart. Another batch of storms heading this way through WVA – maybe someone will get some moisture out of them.
I may be the mayor of Brownsville now. Not a drop at our house, even though it was pouring just 2 miles north on my way to work.
Blacksburg failed to reach 90 again today, topping out at 89. For such a “hot” summer, it should be noted that the NRV has only reached 90 or higher on six days, with 95 being the maximum. Not bad at all, really.
The average temperature for July 1-17 has been 2.6 degrees cooler here in Blacksburg than it has been in rural upstate New York (Syracuse, NY). How about that to illustrate the southern appalachian micro-climate? No doubt the southern apps are the “coolest” place to be on the east coast in the summer, except for maybe northern New England (VT, NH, and ME). We really have it good here folks!
Meanwhile, it was Roanoke’s 12th 95 or higher day today (high was 95 for 2nd straight day). Only 23 other years in the last 101 have had more, including each of the last two (18 in 2011, 14 in 2010), and of course this summer is far from over. It’s the first time since 1952-53-54 that we’ve had 3 years in a row with at least a dozen days at or above 95.
I think we’re done with 95 for at least 5-7 days now.
Hey Kevin is that another bow echo coing thru WV now. Cool note did the wind shift causing sml to miss the strong storms earlier? Reason I asked is because my vantage pro 2 predicted the wind shift.
It’s a bow, but a slow bow — poking along over there, and not one county under a severe warning. Probably will weaken with loss of daytime heating, and mostly stay west of mountains.
Storms were sort of random down this way today. I missed at my house even though it poured 2 miles away.
Kevin-me-boy, I’ll put up my back yard vs. your yard for the title. I have only tiny faint hints of green out there, and that’s the yard that gets LESS sun (I have been watering the most exposed parts of the front yard). I looked back through the comments starting with June 18th (I got 0.45 that day), and I cannot find any day since then when I got at least a 1/2 inch. Got 3/10ths on the 22nd. I might have had a 1/2 inch on July 9th, but I was away, and frankly my dear, I doubt it. This streak is not as long and not yet as bad as what I had last summer for 8 weeks, but it has been hotter, and the dryness started just when the days are longest and the sun highest.
But I did not lose power at all. So I am moaning, but with the knowledge that I am very lucky in that regard, too.
I have spoken with about 12 residents since I got back in town, and those that lost power mostly were out for 7 days, or in one case 8. Incredible. One lady said that a close friend allowed her to bring quite a bit of frozen food over to her house and use their freezer. Now THAT’S a friend in need being a friend indeed!!
Kevin, your 8:52 comment. I wish you were confident enough to say that we were done with 95-degree days “for at least 365-367 days now.” Now that would be something!!
Kevin, what’s Roanoke’s longest streak of 95+-degree days ever? I found one streak of four straight August 7-10, 2007. There were two other streaks of 3 straight that insane month. Omigosh, we just had a streak of 6 from July 3rd through 8th (luckily I “beat it out of Dodge” late on the 5th). Where does that streak stand in the alltime list? If that record is kept.
Blacksburg Mike…we really do have it good here for the most part. We get a little bit of everything. I’m not leaving anytime soon (unless I find a way to move to a Greek island or something)
I noticed that bow shape over in WVA myself. I think we are ‘bowshaped’ storm shy! So it’s not going to make it into our neck of the woods I take it. I love a rainy night if we could get one! (Yay Mr. Griggs…I made a song reference!!)
Top 10 streaks of 95+ days in Roanoke:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/rnk/climate/top10s/ROA/consecGT95.txt
Dates listed are starting dates for each streak.