UPDATE 4:15 PM: Summer doldrums continue: sticky days, scattered storms, a weak front every now and then
UPDATE 4:15 PM: An upper-level disturbance moving southeastward has enhanced showers and storms in Southwest Virginia this afternoon. A cluster of storms is likely to move through the Roanoke Valley by 5 p.m. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds are possible. Click on Radar/ Future Cast in right margin for latest radar END UPDATE
There’s nothing much new in the weather this week. The heat dome is stuck over the central U.S. — that will keep the hottest temperatures out there. We’ll be east of its core, which means occasional “cold” fronts will be pushed around the high pressure system’s clockwise circulation into our area. The next front arrives Wednesday (weather map inset at left), with a somewhat enhanced chance of showers and storms, and perhaps a 3-5 degree drop in high temperatures behind it. But overall, this week offers little variety. Highs in the 80s to low 90s across Southwest Virginia, discomforting humidity, and scattered afternoon hit-or-miss pop-up storms. We’re stuck in the summer doldrums.
July 22, 2012 - 11:22 PM
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We may be stuck in the doldrums but there should be about a month left of this! Then things get interesting again! Although, that derecho was something interesting…not in a good way.
I’m wondering if there are people still without power from that.
There is a disturbance diving southeast this evening that may enhance the storms somewhat. Will keep an eye on it. Mid-level clouds may keep warmth in check, limiting instability.
No sun over here in our valley this morning. This summer has been an unfavorable one weather-wise for me, but one positive I am hearing is that the peaches are extra sweet because of the extremes! I’m hoping to find that out soon as I head out to go buy some!
Tina, buy those local peaches now! This is a very early fruit year because of our warm spring. They won’t be around much longer.
Kevin, you mention a possible 3-5 degree drop in high temps after a Wednesday arrival of a front. NWS has us for 97-98 (the highest of the week). When I look at the graphical forecast page, there’s a circle basically encompassing Roanoke and Danville that is orange (high 90s). Any idea what they are thinking there?
As for this past weekend, after five straight days in the 90s, we went 81, 84 and 84 Fri-Sun with .05 inches of rain on Saturday. Weather at Snowshoe was perfect (not counting the humidity). Partly sunny and low 70s with no rain.
Brian: I was thinking more about 92 Tuesday turning into 87 Wednesday. Will examine the new NWS spike in temps Thursday — perhaps a brief expansion of heat dome or downsloping westerly winds for a day. Very subtle things are guiding our day to day weather now.
Any drop in temperature with the front will be brief and not that much.
Brian: Following up on your question, NWS expecting a brief “blowtorch” (forecast discussion actually uses that word) when Wednesday’s cold front reverses as a warm front Thursday. 1-day expansion of heat dome into our region behind warm front, with warming and drying aloft.
So both ideas are expressed in NWS forecasts — a cold front Wednesday knocking temperatures back a few degrees that day, then shooting upward on Thursday with the warm front passage. Very subtle things can disrupt this, since we’re dealing with sluggish fronts.
Thanks Kevin. I’m betting on high temps that day for sure. Why? Because my wife wants us to clean both cars inside and out that day. The last time I cleaned a vehicle, it was 100…oh and we had that thing that shall not be mentioned by name…derecho..derecho..derecho. You folks have been warned
Heavy rain about noon on Peppers Ferry near Mall. Ch_bg. Rained about .80″ in about 15 min. Some small flooding.
0.31″ as I post. Thanks.
Southern half of Roanoke Valley getting some heavy showers and storms.
I suspect Doug’s place is not-so~Brownsville today.
Steeple Hunt PWS got 0.29″, so I’d say the Sugarloaf area got it to.
I told you folks I was sending those harder storms up your way today. Radar looking like I was successful. Ours seem to be scattered. I definitely want to share when it comes to rain, espcially flooding rains.
Enjoy!
DERECHO WATCH FOR TUESDAY????
Dave Tolleris at wxrisk.com has a great write up about a potential Derecho event for the Ohio Vally & Mid-Atlantic region for Tuesday July 24 & possibly Weds. the 25th. Here’s the link:
http://www.wxrisk.com/2012/07/derecho-2-looks-that-way/
Storm Prediction Center is weighing in on this as well:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON JUL 23 2012
VALID 241200Z – 251200Z
…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE EAST
COAST…
…SYNOPSIS…
AN EXPANSIVE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY WED AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST…FORCING A COLD FRONT TO EXIT THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUE AFTERNOON. TRAILING PORTION OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO UPPER MS
VALLEY AND EXTEND TO A WEAK LEE CYCLONE ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER…AS
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WA/BC BORDER MOVES NEWD
ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES.
…MIDWEST/OH VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS…
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT MID-LEVEL NWLYS AOA 30 KT WILL
OVERSPREAD THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS ON TUE. CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS MAY BE
ONGOING AT 12Z/TUE WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DOWNSTREAM…REMNANTS
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GROW UPSCALE DURING THE DAY…WHILE ADDITIONAL
STORMS FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND LEE TROUGH. NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 100 F IN PARTS OF VA/NC. THIS
STRONG HEATING COMBINED WITH INCREASING 850-500 MB NWLYS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MAY PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS PRODUCING PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z 07/24/2012
I’ve yet to see a drop here at the home office. Storms everywhere but here.
Anytime we have a frontal boundary at the northern edge of a heat dome in mid summer and a NW flow aloft there is a threat of a long-lived storm cluster moving SE out of the Ohio Valley into the Appalachians and/or Mid-Atlantic. There is a risk of that Tuesday. Not quite ready to throw the “derecho” word around again just yet because it must have evidence of 75 mph winds over 240 miles to qualify. We had a bow echo storm line last Thursday that produced an incredible shelf cloud and 40ish gusts but didn’t come close to being a derecho. But then … if the pattern can generate a bow echo storm line and the day’s conditions can intensify that line and maintain it for hours, a derecho can develop.
We’ll see what happens.
Quagmire: I hope you and Dave Tolleris are wrong. “Derecho” has become the equivalent of a four letter word in our house. I can’t do it again. I just can’t.
Nurse Shanon: Thanks for sharing some of the goodies from your garden while you were away. Yummy! Hope you had a good time.
Salem/Southwest Roanoke County about to get another round, even heavier than the first.
Had a brief shower just after lunch and received “0.03″ inches. On the edge now of another shower and had about 30 raindrops. Those cells just keep slipping north or south of me.
Adding to my 4:06 p.m. comment, I am finding variances on what is considered official criteria for a derecho. 75 mph is mentioned for winds in some definititions, but others emphasize long-running severe winds, 58 mph. 240 miles is the number sometimes used, others favor 6 hours duration. Whatever the case, not every long-lived storm cluster is a derecho.
Nice rain happening here right now, finally…not to strong, not much wind, just a nice little rain. Came home earlier and it had rained in the area but the line between rain and no rain was about 1/4 mile from our property. Go figure. We are fortunate that we aren’t horribly dry here though. Garden is still growing well, although we have been plagued with downey mildew in our cukes. I guess that week of cool, damp weather did us no favors there.
And I’m with you Lady Leo…not a fan of the word derecho, especially when directed at US!
Oops…Leo Lady! Sorry!
Think CS and surrounding areas get some decent rain outta this last batch. Looks like Bedford around Stewville and Chamlisburg will also. SE Roanoke and Vinton are in line. So far, a little over 1/2″ here.
WARNING: if you don’t want to read a comment from a 61-year-old crazy letter carrier who is about to sound like a little kid whose parents just took him to the ice cream parlor and told him he can order anything his little heart desires, please stop reading this.
YAY!! YAY!! YAY!! YAYYYYYYYYYYY!!! I checked the rain gauge at about 4:20 when I got home the first time, and we had 4/10ths in it. But it was rumbling. I had to return to the Melrose zip code, and wow was it ever POURING the entire way to and fro!! When I got home (again) about 5:10, there were teeny creeks running down our curbside gutters!! I haven’t had a chance to check the gauge since then, but I bet I am closing in on an inch. And it is still raining lightly now. This is the heaviest rainstorm I have seen in a LOOOOOOOOONG time …. and I wasn’t even out delivering mail on a walking route in it. (I was walking today, and got a bit wet about 1:30, but no biggie) Time for a musical reference …. in separate comment. Can anyone guess what it will be?
HOORAY!!! Khan took some targeting lessons!!! After the sun comes out tomorrow, I bet that more than 1/2 my lawns (3/4?) will be more green than brown.
Michael Hoback and Kevin and anyone else who has made thoughtful comments about my situation for the previous 4+ weeks ….. THANK YOU VERY MUCH!
OK, the link. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQqwG_rQx7A Key lyrics are at about the one minute and 12 second mark.
Two different storms/showers hit us in Goodview today. All we got were .03 and .01
wd, it is great to have you back in town. Were you around when the derecho hit?
I received less than an inch, but still a very big (compared to what I had been getting since at least early June) 8/10ths. Already the grass has turned quite a bit greener.
Brian in Goodview, sorry that you got so little today, if you wanted a healthy amount. For the first time in what seems like eons, I was a bit of a “rain hog” today.
Leo Lady you are more than welcome. I had to pick green beans, tomatoes and cucumbers again today!
I saw what DT was posting and I about flipped. I don’t want another derecho coming through. I was lucky last time and didn’t lose power, but I would hate for everyone to have to go through that again!
Mr. Griggs, I like the Pointer Sisters! And I too feel excited by the rain. My poor yard was turning crispy!
A few drops as usual in Wytheville. No rain in almost a week.
Congratulations Doug. It took some work but my rain dance for Sugar Loaf Mtn finally worked. We were dry here at the Chapel today and I did some mowing after dinner. Grass is growing so fast here you can hearing stretching upward. Mowed on Saturday and parts of my yard could use mowing today.
Another decent round of storms today at my location in Blue Ridge, giving me a daily total of 0.34. This makes my monthly total 3.10 and an even 24 inches for the year, which is 0.48 above normal. Needless to say, a lot of green lawns in my neck of the woods…at least for now.
Rick in Wytheville, you need to come to Carroll County. Rained almost everyday it seems like for about 3 weeks. I ain’t there full time but from what I hear and what I see when I’m there, we’ve had our fair share.