UPDTE 7 PM: Squall line approaching from WVa, but it’s NOT a derecho; tropical soup stirred up into showers/storms next 3 days
UPDATE 7 PM: Storm line has maintained a little bit better speed than earlier projected, and will be moving through the Roanoke and New River valleys over the next hour. Expect some gusty winds (mostly 40 mph range, perhaps a few stronger ones) and locally heavy rain as it blows through. END UPDATE
UPDATE 5:30 PM: A squall line, bowing to some extent, is approaching our region from West Virginia and may arrive near sunset or shortly thereafter, especially west of I-81. That may sound familiar, but this is a more typical summer squall line and NOT a derecho. There have not been all that many wind damage reports from the line — a cluster in eastern Kentucky – and definitely not enough 75+ wind reports (none at all through 5:30 p.m.0 over more than 200 miles that would put this in the league of “derecho.” That said, some gusty winds will be possible as it blows into parts of western Virginia later, and even numerous 40 mph gusts with localized 60 mph gusts may be enough to loosen some more limbs and knock power out to a few areas. Widespread outages and damage on the scale of June 29 are definitely NOT expected with this squall line — but don’t be surprised to see a severe thunderstorm watch issued later for more of Southwest Virginia (covers region west of I-77 through 11 p.m., ) and probably a few severe thunderstorm warnings — though as of this writing at 5:30 p.m., there is not a single severe thunderstorm warning on the line in West Virginia. Click on Radar / Futurecast in the right margin (and linked here) for the latest look at the progress of the line of storms. END UPDATE
A slow-moving cold front is going to get hung up a little north of us the next 48-72 hours, with some low-pressure waves moving along it. (At left is an inset of Saturday’s weather map, which still shows the front over northern Virginia) Last week, the front got hung up south of us, and the result was that more of the rain and storms occurred in the Carolinas, with some areas near the Virginia-North Carolina line getting some repeated rainy/stormy periods. The atmosphere is thick with moisture, and the front, the low-pressure waves, upper-level disturbances, daytime heating, terrain effects and leftover outflow boundaries from previous day’s storms will continue to redevelop showers and storms over Southwest Virginia and most surrounding regions Thursday, Friday and Saturday. (Don’t rule out seeing some rain overnight, as some remains of the storm cluster in West Virginia may make it southeastward into our region). There’s a good chance everyone will get at least somewhat wet, especially Thursday and Friday, with some pockets of heavy downpours. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is calling for 1.50 inch over most of the area over the next 3 days – like I said before, the rain area probably won’t be that smoothed out, but 1-2 inches as an average between the flash-flooding areas and the have-nots (under half an inch) seems reasonable given the humidity, the weather features and the timeframe. Some strong to severe storms with locally damaging winds will be possible each day.
Roanoke hit 95 degrees on Wednesday, making the 12th 95 or higher day of 2012, which puts this year in the top quarter of the last century for number of 95-degree days and makes 2010-11-12 the first time since 1952-53-54 that three consecutive years have had at least a dozen 95-plus days each. We’re probably done with that level of heat for at least the next 5-7 days, as rain and clouds will keep temperatures down into mostly the 80s (maybe some low 90s) Thursday and Friday, and cooler air behind the front over the weekend will push highs back down into the upper 70s/low 80s before heat returns again next week. Humidity is not likely to abate much at all over the next several days, except perhaps for a single day after the front passes — Sunday appears likely to be the coolest, least humid day of the next week.
July 18, 2012 - 10:54 PM
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I thought for sure we’d get rain yesterday. Between the early afternoon storms and the line dropping from WV overnight, I figured one set of them would have brought rain. Nope, just a couple drops in the evening, and nothing overnight.
Jared, I love Draper Valley and I live right near the BCC. That’s also great…where is Wolfcreek?
I’d have to say Draper is slightly better than BCC but BCC is a lot better than RCC. RCC was nice but I found it to be an oddball golf course. But that shouldn’t deter others from playing there…it is still very nice. And Castlerock is so different from all of those that I consider it in a different category. It is so unique! Here, we have an abundance of golf courses, but in Greene Co. near where you live, and Albemarle Co. there’s an abundance of wineries! I used to live up there so I know a lot about the area…what golf courses are near where you live or in the Charlottesville area?
Still waiting for that rain! It missed us yesterday twice! Once around 5, it just split up and reformed east of Roanoke, and last night it broke up from the north.
It seems we may have a contested election for Mayor of Brownsville. Neither Kevin or Doug are conceeding. We better check the hanging chads, absentee votes and the disenfranchized. Surely we don’t have Chicago style politics going on here, and dead people have voted?
It is amazing what a few hard and persistent showers can do. My grass is growing faster now than in the spring. The ole weather man is saying more of the same for the next day or two. All I can figure is that the Mayor of Brownville has a black cloud above his house but it is definitely not pouring rain. Hang in there, help is on the way.
I got an inch of rain a week ago Monday, so I guess I can’t be the mayor.
Nick, I used to work at BCC, several years ago now though, I really liked playing there. I’ve still yet to get across the county to Draper though…one day soon. But tomorrow I’m playing Auburn Hills, after playing the Meadows Monday. Looks like rain may be an issue tomorrow, but as long as there’s no lightning, I’m playing…it’s our company tournament.
I’m not too optimistic for our rain chances. The HPC QPF map shows a big dry slot over the New River and Roanoke Valleys: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif
Maybe if we all put a rain barrel out and gather some water and take it to Dougs and water his lawn, he can give his Mayorship to someone else. Of course, it we do that, the rain gods may get mad and dry up our places. We’ll have to think on that.
Keep pluggind Doug, it will rain there, it always has.
Nick,
I work at Greene Hills Club in Greene county. I would have to say best golfcourses nearby would be Spring Creek in Zion Crossroads, Farmington and Keswick. Would have to put us in the 2nd tier with Birdwood and Old Trail in Crozet. Then of course you have Meadow Creek, which you never know what your gonna get there. Havent gotten down to play at Stoney Creek or Devils Knob, but would love to do it! I hope to someday get down and play the River course since they redid it. OH by the way Wolfcreek is in Bland county, kind of hidden, but a nice golf course with a few quirky holes. Just to finish, I detest RCC also! Gotta run, headed down 81 in a few hours, hope we get some rain here in Greene while I am gone, we desperately need it! It sucked watching all that rain gather in the Valley yesterday only to never make it over the Blue Ridge to us!
Jason: Not sure I would call a 1.5 inch zone amid 2+ plus zone a “dry slot”. But of course I don’t think these smoothed out rain areas will match reality either.
Other John, yeah, definitely play because rain is not threatening…it just makes your swing a bit slippery.
Jared, I know about Devils Knob and Stony Creek. I’ve been to Wintergreen and love that area of the Rockfish Valley. Stony Creek has fog issues and is much hotter during the day than Devils Knob. I forgot where Meadow Creek is. I know Pen Park has a 9 hole golf course.
That rain has been taunting us lately! Time to pull through! Today is the day! And Doug, there’s even hope for you too!
Kevin,
Looking at the radar over WV (it’s 3:45pm 7/19/12), and it’s looking a little like the night of June 29th. Could this be another derecho or just an ugly line of storms?
Solid-looking storm complex in WV, I think this one makes it over the mountains…unlike last night.
Once again it rains within a mile of our house and we get nada. It did, as it did yesterday, drop the temps some 15 degrees over an hour or so. We have .15 inches of rain over the last 8 days and .44 over the last 13 days.
I’m just saying that HPC appears to have caught on to the normal trend of thunderstorms fizzling before they get to the NRV and then re-forming east of the Blue Ridge. Last week the HPC maps showed 5 inches at one point for us, and I ended up with 0.5″.
I wonder if the bow echo/line coming through West Virginia will hold together.
I might be able to give Doug a run for his money for Mayor of Brownsville. My lawn is brown and crunchy and has been for weeks. I don’t know that I have had more than a trace since before the derecho hit. But then again, I don’t live that far from Doug either; less than 5 miles.
Kevin; I just came in from being out all afternoon and saw a nasty line of thunderstorms in Charleston on the radar. Will these storms make it over the mountains? Should I plan to take cover and tie down the lawn furniture?
It is a squall line moving in from West Virginia. It is NOT a derecho … not NEARLY enough reports of wind damage or wind measurements 75+ (or even 60+) to be in the league of June 29. That doesn’t mean there couldn’t be some gusty winds capable of downed trees/power lines in spots.
I have become interested in the record setting drought in the Corn Belt. (OH, IN, IL, IA, NE) Anyone have a link to a good, but simple, long range ( 10-14 days ) rain forecast for that area?? I’m interested in the projected corn crop. I like Frosted Flakes, they’re GREAT ! !
Jason: I’m definitely not arguing the HPC amounts will be accurate for each spot. There is no good way to show a map like that and indicate the spotty nature of typical summer rain events, so they use smoothed out averages. That said, last week’s map wasn’t even close because the front stalled farther south than early projections.
Peppers Ferry: It’s not precise projected amounts, but Climate Prediction Center 8-14-day precipitation map shows below-normal shifting southward into the southern Plains/lower Missisippi River Valley (which are similarly bad in terms of drought) and maybe some “normal” rains getting into the dry areas you mention.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif
Long range drought outlook paints a VERY bleak picture.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.gif
Keeping fingers crossed that the squall line holds together as it comes over the mountains. Was in the Target/Kmart area of Christiansburg this afternoon and got a deluge of rain – it was like being in a car wash!
Other John, this is in reply to your first comment on this thread. Welcome to the “Drats-there-are-plenty-of-rainstorms-around-WHY-doesn’t-one-come-here-and-dump-on-me” Club.
Well, my political opponent found some ballots hidden in a back closet and my mayoral race just got a whole lot closer. Practically a miracle happened today. No rain (except for a few lonely raindrops about 2:30) where I was delivering mail, but I got home and found 0.30 inches in my rain gauge!! Both back and front yard still look bad, but not quite as horrendous as this morning.
Radar shows an invading force from West Virginia, will it reach me? I have much worse “luck” with such systems than ones approaching from the south and SW, but who knows??
Uh, Leo Lady, if you have no patches of green lawn anywhere in your yards, I hereby concede the title (VERY GLADLY, by the way) to you. You haven’t been mowing, have you? I was told years ago to avoid mowing when the grass goes completely brown, even if it becomes unsightly. Told that by three different lawn people ….
Doug: We did a very light mow two days ago (first one in a month) more to mulch the leaves left over from the derecho than to cut grass (no grass to cut). It just made the brown look worse. However, I do hear thunder now and am hoping that we will get some rain this evening. By the way, that .30 that you had in your rain gauge didn’t get as far as my house; nary a drop here.
I think I will shut my computer down as these storms approach. I really don’t want to lose my computer to a lightning strike.
Hey, Nick and others, what do you mean by “RCC?” You don’t mean Roanoke Country Club, do you?
I just took the Blonde Man out for his post supper mini-walk, and the sky to our west and NW looks incredibly mean. Am I about to be doused?? It sure looks like it.
WARNING: You may be seeing a comment in an hour or three with Griggs-adjusted lyrics to the Battle Hymn of the Republic ….
I just looked at radar, and Other John, it looks like your home just got slammed pretty good. You live east of the town of Pulaski, don’t you? Fairly close to Route 11?
comming through c-burg right now , be in roanoke soon
Wind started picking up around 7:40 up here on the ridge – radar shows the rain just up the road. Shutting down computer too. We did get “0.11″ inches with the storm that went through this afternoon. Lets see if there will be anymore in the rain gauge with this one.
The fat lady is clearing her throat. It is raining here, moderately, for about 15+ minutes. Twice in the same P.M.??? Is my luck changing for the better?? Leo Lady, I think you were smart to shut down the compuker. I drove my car to the top of our street (elevation has to be well over 1500 feet up there) to get a better view of the invading force, and it appeared that the lightning was heading south along the SR 419 corridor. No lightning strikes close to us …. just wonderful rain.
Michael Hoback, thanks for your kind comments of earlier today and also on a few earlier occasions. If you said a prayer for me, well …. it is working big time!! :>) :>) :>) I might even have a half-inch total for today by now.
Here’s an NWS-Blacksburg radar image at 7:49 p.m. The circled area of light returns is the gust front or outflow boundary moving ahead of the squall line.
http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/files/2012/07/radar749pm0719b.jpg
If storms are in the area … I think it’s best to actually pull the plug out of the wall on any electronic equipment (stereos and TVs as well as computers), rather than just shutting down. We had a bad surge a few years back when a transformer malfunctioned, and learned our lesson. Even had to replace the controller on the electric range.
Evening folks. Kinda nice to get a “normal” storm tonight, with no worries of warnings. I appreciate Kevin’s insistence that though this looked quite similar to the derecho, it was far from it. I think we are all very bow-echo-storm-weary these days, haha.
We received right around 1/2″ during a storm this afternoon and maybe 1/4″ or a touch more from this evening’s storm.
The June 29 derecho was basically tonight’s squall line on atmospheric steroids.
I shoulda played the lottery today. Two rainstorms, totaling just under 1/2 inch, and I got to watch the Boston Red Sox pull out a 3-1 win on tv with a game-ending 3-run homer in bottom of 9th.
Well, I happily lost the election, in a “squeaker.” I guess you could call it a “runoff election.” It’s all “water over the dam,” now. Anybody else think of any more “groaners?” Yeah, I know, I’m “all wet.” Nothing different in that regard.
I just checked regional radar, and there are still more storms out there, although the only part of SW Virginia that looks to be hit soon is the area due north and west of Bristol. But there is also a line in NW Ohio approaching Columbus. What do you think, Kevin? Any chance that that bunch of storms could make it all the way across Ohio, WV, and into our area later tonight? I would guess no.
It is humid and there are some atmospheric disturbances moving through, so some storms making it here later (probably as rain showers or patches of rain) is possible. The loss of daytime heating is the big negative factor. We’ll see much more when that gets going again tomorrow. Front is still north/northwest of us, so we’ll still be in “warm sector” where greatest instability from heating will be.
Well, we only got the wind up here on the ridge – no rain – yep that’s right no rain. It fell apart once it hit the Doppler. Maybe tomorrow?
Storms rolled through around 6-7 pm. Saltville got hit hard and Abingdon seemed to also but it split over us and only a light shower after the hard winds came through. I did till the garden before the rain. Late corn and beans were full of weeds. It was damp but hopefully it will not get hard and packed. Grass is still growing a lot faster than the hair on my bald head. Glad Doug got a rain cause hauling my share of rain water in a barrel would have been tough. Most of it would have sloshed out in the two hour drive.
Although the radar images looked impressive as the squall line approached Thursday evening, I only picked up 0.01 in Blue Ridge. I’ve fared better than most with rainfall…for the month of July I’ve recorded 2.34 inches and my yearly total is about 0.22 above normal.