UPDATED 12:10 AM, 7/7: Two more extremely hot days before hope of cooling relief (maybe even widespread rainfall) arrives
UPDATE 12:10 AM, 7/7: Just rolled over this blog entry, because it does appear there will be TWO more days of the heat wave — Saturday and Sunday — before the front arrives and begins to bring cooler air. That collision of air masses will likely result in some strong to severe storms late Sunday — the Storm Prediction Center has had our region in a slight risk of severe weather for that timeframe — and quite possibly some significant rain early to mid next week. But first, a high near 100 in Roanoke and places south and east on Saturday, with widespread 90s over most of our region below 3,000 feet. Sunday may be similar or just a few degrees cooler, depending on when the front and any associated storminess arrive. END UPDATE
For those ready for a break from the heat, I’m going to tempt you with the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center’s projected temperature map for next Thursday — low to mid 80s for highs regionwide. It appears we have two more days of extreme heat — potentially near 100 each day in the Roanoke Valley and points south and east, upper 80s to mid 90s to the west – before the changes start taking shape. Sunday may be a pretty hot, sticky day before a cold front begins pushing in, triggering showers and thunderstorms. Once the front goes by, a much cooler air mass will move in, and that will likely take our highs below 90 — and maybe below 80 for areas above about 2,000 feet in elevation, mainly west of Roanoke — for several days next week. It does not appear at this time as if it will be a long cool snap — the Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10-day map and 8-14-day map show warmer than normal temperatures building back across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes toward us by late next week or the following weekend. But it looks to be a respite from the extreme heat wave.
As for storms, the odd south-southwest movement of Thursday’s storm cluster that stayed well west of Roanoke and just west of most of the New River Valley — eventually reaching Alabama and Georgia — is a sign of how the upper-air steering currents are weakening. Pop-up storms, more on the order of what the eastern side of the Roanoke Valley and the Smith Mountain Lake area have seen the past two days, will be possible each hot afternoon, more so on Friday before warm air aloft may cap convection more firmly for Saturday. For those looking for more meaningful widespread rain, forecast models are suggesting the front may be sluggish moving south Sunday and Monday, serving as a focus for some heavier rain. Until and unless that happens (still iffy), your local rain prospects will be hit or miss, with far more missing than hitting.
July 6, 2012 - 12:18 AM
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Even in my neck of Pulaski County, we missed out on the storms…they stayed west of us except for a brief sprinkle from a storm that poped up to the NW of Radford. The outflow from the large cluster stabilized things enough that it stayed dry, while other storms fired up in Roanoke. I am looking forward to the cool down, and some (hopefully) substantial rain.
I’m not sure I’ve ever seen that much rain over a large area of Colorado forecasted in the summer. We should do ok for rain too. That will put out a fire or two.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif
Kevin, it reached 104 at Charlottesville’s airport yesterday and I see that the Pulaski area struggled to reach 80. Why was there such a big discrepancy?
Thanks
John-Rville; Reasons for that discrepancy on both ends. Charlottesville’s location east of the Blue Ridge makes it particularly susceptible to the warming effects of downsloping northwest winds compressing and heating. And Pulaski experienced cooling outflow winds from storms throughout much of the day.
Roanoke’s high was 99, and probably would have been 100-plus like Charlottesville if 2 things hadn’t happened: (1) an outflow boundary from the WVa/I-77 storm cluster moved through about and (2) pop-up storms hadn’t developed over Roanoke.
Rick: Mixed blessing on that rain, which stems from enhanced seasonal monsoon flow. It will help put out fires, but on the bare ground will probably cause some mudslides and flash flooding. I’m sure the charred areas out there will take that gamble, though.
Kevin, thanks for the info. I guess they made it into the mid 80s but that’s still a pretty good difference.
With these hot temps, does anyone know what the water temperature is at Smith Mt Lake? I’d have to guess it’s pretty warm.
One thing is for sure, Fall can’t get here fast enough for me.
Did George Bush cause this heat and storms? Just kidding the Dems and Libs. I love summer, but this 100 degree stuff is terrible.
I can’t wait for it to snow.
TO JOHN FROM RUCKERSVILLE, I WAS AT CLAYTOR LAKE WEDNESDAY FISHING I FOUND WATER FROM 82 TO 88 , SMITH MTN. MOST LIKELY A LITTLE WARMER
A GOOD QUESTION FOR KEVIN, DOES WATER TEMPS OF LAKES AND RIVERS PULL STORMS TO THOSE AREAS, SOMETIMES I SEE STORMS CLOUDS IN THOSE DIRECTIONS?
Looking like a nasty storm is underway just northeast of Union, seems to be going SSW. The little cluster of storms just west of lexington looks like it might come straight for Roanoke barring it doesn’t make too much of a sharp turn westward.
Kevin – finally heard you on All things Considered (first time) and you pronounced ‘derecho’ beautifully. You’d fit right in east Texas with your accent.
Hi Kevin, I have a question regarding the radar map. A couple of times lately, the most recent being on Wednesday 4th July, my husband and I, studying the local radar in Roanoke early evening before heading out for our daily dog walk, noticed that at the Roanoke campground it was supposedly raining. It’s one of our favorite places to walk though it’s rare we go there in the hot weather (no water for our Lab to frolic in). Anyway the radar showed the ‘rain’ up there in a tempting yellow/orange hue, not merely green. So we headed right up there thinking we’d arrive just as it was finishing. The road up Mill Mtn was a little bit wet and the plants at the campground showed a few drops on their leaves but it really did seem like it hadn’t rained AT ALL! Ugh! Still v. hot & muggy. The same thing happened to us the week before. What gives? Is the radar iffy? I’m surprised to say the least… Thanks, sorry for long-winded post.
Julie, I have seen that myself. I was under a spot on the radar the other day that was dark red but not a drop of rain was falling from the sky. It was, according to the radar, one of those small isolated thunderstorms, but it was so isolated I never saw it!
Looks like the cells headed to Roanoke have fallen apart — typical summer “pulse” storms.
Julie, thanks for letting me know. Has anyone else noticed the radar to be a little off on the map? I would need to take this up with the vendor — completely out of my expertise how to design a radar software program.
Arthur: Short answer is that rivers and streams can supply some added moisture for clouds to develop, but most contain such a small amount of water compared to the total water in a thunderstorms that it doens’t make a ton of difference. Ridgelines actually have more impact on storm development locally than rivers.
Jim Overfelt, I think you are right, but it was just the warmup as they work on brewing another cat 4 hurricane for this summer.
Kevin & Tina, thanks for your comments. However, we mostly look at the radar on Intellicast and Weather.com. My husband’s theory is that could it be so hot and dry that the rain might be in the air but just isn’t reaching the ground?
There are certainly times when storm reflectivities are strong with high cloud tops but rain isn’t yet reaching the ground. Happens a lot with Western storms, and perhaps sometimes here, just before they let loos. Perhaps the storm intensified over that spot and then moved a few miles before dumping its load. I know the July 4 storms were not having trouble soaking some areas. My mother got an inch southeast of Roanoke.
Looks like extreme heat hangs on into Sunday — but the front is still arriving and may hang up just south of us. Showery, much cooler weather into the middle of next week. Even with humidity, low-mid 80s will feel pretty cool after this heat wave.
I know we need rain, but I sure hope next week isn’t consistently rainy! My daughter is coming up from Florida and it seems every time she is here we get rain, rain, rain…no matter what season! But I will welcome the rain and cooler temps no matter. We really need it.
Severe storms down in Tennesee and Mississippi tonight are moving SOUTHWEST. Summer weirdness is upon us.
Radar has been extraordinarily accurate for our location. Pin-point accurate here, though it naturally also shows virga.
Regarding the radar comments – I’ve see bright yellow over my area on TWC’s radar map and come home to not a single drop.
Love this morning’s column Kevin about the warning process for the derecho. I had checked the blog throughout the day + followed Jamey Singleton’s commentary on Facebook enough to know something was going on. If I recall I caught the 6 o clock weather from WDBJ7 and they also warned folks. The problem is, despite the seriousness of the language used, there are those that are never going to give the warning’s credence; I called a few folks to tell them to get home or batten down the hatches and they brushed it off saying “oh it’s nice out right now, we can’t have that bad of a storm tonight.” Not so much.
Hope I can navigate around those severe storms tomorrow evening on my way back from the Greenbrier. Disappointed that Tiger and Phil wont be playing this weekend, guess I can follow good ole John Daly, he is always interesting. Will be nice to get up in the mountains where the temperature wont be over a 100. Kevin, is this historic as far as heat is concerned? I just don’t remember so many 100 degree days so bunched together!
Kevin, got our power back yesterday. I at least had my smart phone while the power was down (I had a car charger), I followed your tweets throughout the week, you kept us updated on what was happening. I just wanted to say thanks!! We appreciate it a lot!!
PS please warn us a week in advance for the next one so I have time to plan!!-Just kidding, Thanks again
I hope that the two words behind my name give some of you a chuckle. I am now at my sister Donna’s home in central Mass, just west of the Quabbin Reservoir if any of you know Mass. geography. The temp was a blistering hot 73* when we arrived here at 11 A.M., cloudy and a few lonely raindrops. Temp has soared up to 78 now. My brother-in-law Henry (who is recovering from Type B lymphoma) feeds wild turkeys right outside his window. I got to feed them a few minutes ago. They are incredibly tame. If the heat resumes when I return to Virginia in a week, I may be like the Wicked Witch of the West at the end of the movie …. “I’m melting, melting!!”
I feel sorry for all of you folks who either are without electricity still, or who have to work outside in those brutal conditions. I was not exaggerating about how poorly I was feeling by 3 PM on thursday.
Excellent article in the RT breaking down the whole day by timeline. The problem is that there will always be people that ignore warnings, no matter how timely or how they are worded. For every person I talked to that heeded the warnings and battened down the hatches (including heading to the basement or equivalent), there were an equal number that didn’t take action. And some of them are the ones screaming the loudest about “no advance warning”. The bigger problem as I see it is getting word out to those that aren’t as lucky to have smartphones, computers or a weather radio. Advance technology is wonderful, but there are still a lot of people that don’t necessarily have access to any of that. As it was I just happened to come across a commercial break in TWC programming to see their “local on the 8s” and notice the radar shortly after 8 (because I was oblivious earlier in the evening, having other things to deal with) and made a beeline to my computer and smartphone and turned on my other weather radio (I have 2) down here, in addition to trying to warn some other people down the derecho path from me. So even though I’m “tech savvy” and a weather buff, I almost missed all the warnings.
Amanda, you are right, some folks just aren’t going to listen. And some folks just aren’t weather freaks like some of us either. I always warn people – usually via Facebook – but will text or call my daughter or hubby if he’s at work and let them know of bad weather headed their way.
Two more days of this intense heat and we will hopefully be done! I can’t stand it anymore. At least in winter you can bundle up…you can strip totally down to the skin in this stuff and STILL be sweltering! My heart really goes out to those who are still without power. My daughter in Amherst Co. is one of them and she’s been dealing with a toddler all this week. Fortunately they have a generator and a pool, but it still wears on one’s nerves after a while. APCO says they should have 95 % restored by today and my daughter joked “yea, we will be in the 5%”…ha ha.
Just went outside to check the heat,its terrible!Sitting on 96 here in Marshall now,National Airport up to 104 at 1:45.Stay cool everyone can`t wait till Monday for some relief!
Your column this morning was excellent Kevin.
Those of us who follow weather closely obviously knew what was coming. I did see lots of Facebook updates from local meteorologists and news outlets informing people of the unusual intensity of these storms, but I don’t think it really sunk in.
I was at work that night and kept telling people who were leaving to be careful if they were traveling, and consider stopping somewhere on the way home to pick up some necessities. It was still mostly sunny at this point, so I think my warning fell on deaf ears in most cases.
It’s kind of like when we have spring snowstorms around here. The weather can be nice and 60 degrees the day before the event, so nobody really chooses to believe six inches of heavy wet snow could be on the way in less than 24 hours.
Kevin – I read the article interview with Dave Wert and the timeline of warnings with interest. I was not in this area but further north in Luray, VA. I was camping and working at an archaeology site that entire week. I would check the weather daily via my smart phone (Droid) using the WeatherBug app. Earlier in the day, I saw the chance of t-storms in the area on Friday night and mentioned that to the two other people who were camping at the same site. T-storms in summer are a common thing and none of us was very concerned. I have weathered several storms in a tent. Per a planned reservation, I stayed at a B&B in Luray that last evening before the end of our dig. Nothing in the earlier WeatherBug forecasts gave an indication of the severity of the storms. I did some shopping in Luray and didn’t check the forecast. Back at the B&B, the wind suddenly picked up, I checked my phone and saw it lit up with alerts. I contacted the other campers by phone who rode out the storm in their cars which were fortunately near the campsite.
Even with smart phones, the warning system is often hit or miss. I don’t watch TV at all so I would not get warnings that way. My phone or internet (or the siren in town!) is pretty much it and I am not connected to those things all the time. Many people may have been like me for that storm on Friday – knew about t-storms in the forecast, took note then and not thought much more until they hit. I know t-storms can be scary but I’m not sure many of us were prepared for the wind and intensity of that one.
Just put my thermometer in the sun for curiosity and it registered to 116.5….it’s about 99 in the shade. Us snow lovers are not doing well.
Roanoke officially hit 100 as of 4 p.m. It’s the third 100+ day in is now a 10-day streak of 94+, 9 of which have been 97+.
Running some quick averages, and presuming 100 as today’s high (may well go another degree or two higher), the last 10 days’ highs will have averaged 98.5 degrees. This is the hottest 10-day stretch of high temperatures for Roanoke since July 12-21, 1977, which averaged 98.8 degrees.
Closest in more recent times was Aug. 7-16, 2007, which averaged 96.7 degrees.
Severe storms today in the Ozarks are moving NORTHWEST. Still the same area of disturbed weather that came through WVa and west of I-77 in Va on Thursday, rotating around the Upper Midwest heat dome.
Hit 100 in the shade here around 3 pm, and I am well out in the country. I think my thermometer picks up some radiant heat from the patio, though. That’s hotter than last Saturday. Tina B. – my thermometer in the sun is also reading 116.5.
I am thankful for the 5 hours of work that the power company crews put in yesterday to restore power to me and my neighbor. There’s no breeze today, we don’t have a basement, and I think I would be lying on the tile floor at this point to stay cool! (that’s along with the cats and dog, who are already asleep on the tile)
Those storms in the Ozarks perhaps could make a complete circle around the “modified ring of fire” and what’s left of those storms could influence what storms the Mid-Atlantic may have on Sunday and beyond. Could that is if it has enough interaction and left over energy.
104 degrees was the high here Saturday in eastern Goochland Co. Expecting the same on Sunday before the storms hit. SPC has the entire state of VA under the slight category for severe weather on Sunday.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
Hey, Kevin, I looked up some weather statistics on wundergruond for ROA, and I noticed that the lowest high temp for ROA this calendar week (actually starting on June 29th, Derecho Day) was 94, whixh you mentioned here a few days ago. Wunder claims it reached 102 today at ROA. I can never remember either a calendar week or a 9-day stretch ever like this in ROA, although it may have happened in Aug 2007
Doug: See my 4:35 p.m. comment. Hottest 10-day stretch since 1977. Hotter by 2 degrees than hottest period of same length in August 2007.
Official high today through 5 p.m. is indeed 102 at Roanoke. That pulls the last 10 days’ average within one-tenth of a degree of the 10-day period in July 1977 (98.7 now, 98.8 then). High of 94 tomorrow would put this 11-day heat wave above even 11 days in’77, and we may have to go back into the 1930s to find a hotter streak for so long. 12 straight days averaging 99.5 in July 1930 won’t be touched.
I’ve heard one comment about the 1977 heat wave hear in the newsroom, so it’s still remembered by some.
I hope Dave T. is right about the MJO going to phase 3 and bringing an early wetter El Nino type of pattern to the midwest and eastern USA.
I saw where someone mentioned on Facebook earlier that The Weather Channel mentioned the possibility of another derecho forming tomorrow…. do the storm chances Sunday have the potential to be that severe?
A storm system becoming a derecho is more a function of longevity than severity. It’s possible to have short-term storms or storm clusters than produce 100+ mph downburst winds but don’t last long enough to become a derecho. Derechos by defintion must have continuously severe wind over 240 miles in length (don’t know where they got 240 from).
Right now my money on Sunday would be on typical frontal type storms with some localized downburst winds and perhaps some hail where it cools enough aloft. But anytime you’ve got a severe risk you gotta keep an eye on how the storms link up and grow together.
I would add, though, that NWS-Blacksburg is talking about a potential ‘bow echo’ diving southward out of Pennsylvania. That may be where the derecho talk is coming from. All bow echoes don’t make derechos, but that’s the type of storm system that can become one.
Kevin liked your article about the warnings. My issue is that we seem to have those Severe Weather Alerts almost daily. We were out on Smith Mountain Lake when that derecho hit (granted we were pulling into our dock). We knew there was a warning (my wife and I both get alerts on our cells) but did not give it a second thought. Is there a way to adjust that? Or do we need to take each warning very seriously? BTW we always monitor the skies and have a pretty good grasp of the direction of storms come from. But this thing was one of the fastest I have seen here at the lake since we moved here a few years ago.
You’ve hit on a major issue, Jeff — how to adequately warn people without “crying wolf.” Most severe thunderstorm warnings involve localized events like downburst winds and hail cores over a few square miles. Most of the warning areas do not experience severe weather, though the warning is “verified” if there 1 report of 58 mph winds (or damage suggesting wind of that strength) or 1 report of 1-inch hail. I would say it would be prudent to act as if every one of them were a derecho (definitely true if you are actually ON the lake!), but I know people as a whole won’t. I don’t treat every warning like that, honestly. (Though I did tell my wife to get away from windows and take my son to the basement when the derecho was approaching.)
Tornado sirens are ignored in central U.S. communities because they go off for every tornado warning — Doppler radar-indicated rotations that never mature into full-fledged tornadoes, mistaken spotter reports, and brief tornadoes that touch down in unpopulated areas. Joplin people heard the sirens but many didn’t immediately react because they have multiple tornado warnings a year without anything close to the tragic consequences of May 22, 2011.
Tough issue on this one. That’s some of what Dave Wert was talking about, studying why and how people react and DON’T react to warnings, and making them more meaningful.